I'm essentially of the same opinion as Gajah. Okay, so it's a utility stock but its last quarter report which reported less profit isn't encouraging. Being in the 2.00 range might influence some people into feeling it is `cheap'. But is it? You have to look at its PE ratio, which isn't exactly low enough. And there are no future profit projections either. Why isn't the company confident or being upfront enough to state this in its IPO prospectus.

The word "Gas" definitely conjures images of the rock solid Petronas Gas. And "Malaysia" - Wow!...national. BUT it isn't in the same league as Petronas Gas.

I'm waiting to see it go significantly lower than this to buy.

This one is going to be interesting although I'm going to stay at the sidelines and just watch at the opening. The decrease in profit in the last quarter is rather discouraging. And I haven't seen any analyst's opinions and target price yet.

However, it's bound to attract attention since it is a utility company - the word "Gas" conjures images of Petronas Gas although the latter is in a different league than GM. The just announced aid package to Spain should also boost market sentiments on Monday. This is unlike SKPETRO which was unfortunately listed when the market was weak. So, I'd say it will start at above IPO price. My guess - it opens at 2.50.

tptan45 - "Buy and keep" has its merits as you have seen from the Nestle experience. With these solid counters, it's just a matter of holding on and wait. The entrance price is important too, of course, because if you get in at the lower end, the wait would be far shorter.

There is one strategy that I'm keeping in mind i.e. in capitalising from a sudden drop. I'm keeping at least 10% of the capital unused in case there's an earth-shaking event that results in the market diving. These incidents have been happening rather more frequently especially after the subprime and Lehman affairs. Now it's matters concerning Europe, especially the possibility of a Greece default.

The panic often spreads to our market and prices are pushed way down. This is when you must force yourself to go against the crowd and buy the counters whose businesses, by right, shouldn't be too affected by external events... consumer products and utilities especially. Sooner rather than later, when the dust begins to settle and people can see clearer, investors will rush back to these counters. And I will be there to sell.

jpleow: Thanks for the information and caution. These are new factors - both negative and positive - to take into consideration. Volume had been rather heavy over the past week since the selling announcement and it's possible those who want out have already disposed of their shares. But one can never be certain because maybe they are selling in batches so as not to push the price too low. Only time will tell.

On the positive side, when a director buys, it should be duly noted. He might know something based on indications by the boss on what's the next move. If he or any other director were to buy again next week, that might indicate some decision that should please the minority shareholders (and push the price up).

If the EGM is in the 4th quarter, that's sounds a bit late. I would expect the major shareholder to push for the deal to go faster since you don't know what the economic scenario is going to be like a few months from now. Buyers should remember this "High risk, high return (or loss)" probability when making a decision.

Namoyaki: Brothers in Arms is one of my all-time favourite songs, along with Telegraph Road:-)

I don't go for NiCorp and most similar counters either despite the temptation. Yes, one can make quick money on these... provided you are in early. It's definitely a huge risk when it's already up; often just a matter of time before the manipulators pull out, leaving the late ones high and dry.

This isn't to say the counters with heavy volumes are to be avoided at all times. JCY, for instance, is an example - many speculators are in it every day. But it's a company that's doing actually well and merits attention. I would consider it if it goes below 1.35 again.

My basic criteria: company has good fundamentals, with dividends, good volume; presently trading at lower price range; and the technical charts say a breakout or pointing towards it. Plus no negative news from Europe, US and China. That's a BUY.

We seem go share some similarities here. I'm also holding YTL Power shares (highest at 1.77). It's a solid company that gives dividends every quarter but I had made the mistake in not referring to the technical charts first before buying at that price. Although it was comparatively `cheap', it was on a downswing at that time - something that was clearly shown on the charts. Serves me right for being lazy. I'm using that as a lesson.

Like you, I've averaged down when it was below 1.60. Wanted to buy more last week - in fact, I was actually annoyed when it didn't go down like most other counters last Friday Heheh!

Besides keeping tabs on the forum here, you might want to do some research yourself. One easy way is through The Edge's weekly (RM5). The latest issue is already out and you can buy it anywhere (11-16 June issue). Look for this page: "FACTSET estimates consensus". In the previous issue (I haven't gone out to buy the new one yet) it's on page 48 (capital), comprising The Edge/JCF Estimates Consensus table.

This table covers only some of the companies listed in BSKL. But no matter - there are useful information that you can research and act on. See under the section of "RECOMMENDATION CONSENSUS 75 DAYS AS OF 29/05/12" (or a newer date) - the numbers are ratings where smaller is better. Do some research on the companies with 1.00 or slightly higher. These are the companies which these foreign analysts keep tabs on. The ones you should consider should also have good daily turnover - doesn't have to be heavy but at the same time `not sleeping'.

Can't guarantee the companies with the smaller numbers will go up. For all you know, it's those with 3.00 (rated as "Sell") that might! This would be due to speculators piling in. However, at the very least, you will know that the companies you chose are also highly rated by the analysts. But don't limit yourself to just these, of course. There are many other companies not mentioned in the table that have the potential to make us money.

Things are rather volatile nowadays. But that's also a good thing because it creates opportunities. Have a few counters in your list and follow them - when the price goes down, see that as a chance to enter. Track them through the technical charts and see whether they are on the upswing again. If a company is good and if we wait a reasonable time (not the contra period) plus set a profit target, our chances of success will be much better. Good luck!

ingwong: Thank you for sharing your experiences. For someone who was from a farmer's family, you have sure come a long way; being able to have that sum of capital and on the verge of buying a nice house. I'm really impressed with your attitude. Your honesty, willingness to acknowledge your mistakes plus the desire to learn will see you improve and do much better in the future, all else being equal.

Hoping to make quick and easy money - I would say this is everyone's hope actually. After all, why not if one can do so? And I have certainly done so myself when the opportunity presents itself. Just two weeks ago, I bought MAS at 1.06 - I know it had made big losses but it was a calculated risk since it's a GLC and the government will surely bail it out again and again if needed to. Besides, it also made smaller losses and I felt the price was low enough. Had intended to wait for a month or so and sell when I had 10% profit. I was surprised to see it going up the next day!... immediately sold it at 1.18 since that's my target.

Sometimes, one does get very lucky; sometimes a bit lucky, or sometimes not very. That's how it goes. In your case, you *might* have gotten the fast and easy money when you entered. As I had said, it's just a question of timing - if luck would have it, you might have bought when the price was at the very bottom, and immediately spring up after that. This is what everyone hopes for, and sometimes it does happen. But on many occasions, it doesn't. Therefore, we will have to do some research and thinking first; otherwise it is tantamount to gambling.

In your case, you still have a sizeable capital left. Don't beat yourself too hard trying to recover it back as fast as possible - this might set you up towards being too hasty and taking huge risks. If these risks work, then fine. But what if they don't? Consider doing what some companies do when restructuring due to losses - capital reduction where a RM1.00 par value share now becomes 75 sen par. In your case, look at your capital and see what it is now - 350K, and start on a fresh note without being pressured by the previous losing trades. Doing so will put less pressure on you. With your attitude and newly-learned lessons, I have the feeling you will do well and achieve what you had intended to do, honestly.

CP TEH: Of course. And you don't have to pay any royalties either:-P This is a public forum after all. That's what we should do - share opinions and help each other out and try to profit from the stock market. Just remember that these are just my own opinions of which could be wrong.

Sorry to hear about the losses. When we enter the stock market, this is always a risk. And especially with contra trades. I'm sure each and every one of us here have suffered losses at one time or another.

I've followed the market for some years although I've been inactive; coming back only a few months ago after I've rebuilt my capital. I'm one of those unlucky sods who was playing the market in the early 1990's, made some losses, was discouraged... and totally missed the 1994/4 Great Bull run! It tormented me to see shares that I had sold shooting so high: KLK - had sold it at 3.60 (went to 24.00); Time, sold at 1.90 (went to 9.00) etc. But at the same time, I didn't come back in when the market was at its peak - would have been wiped out. I did enter in the late 1990's but made losses.

But I've learned a few things which I hope will result in better investing this time. For one thing, there are groups like this where you can seek others' opinions - there were none some years ago. This is a very important tool. At the same time, one must try not to be too influenced by the opinions here - use your own judgement at all times. After all, it's your money on the line.

I've also learned that it's all about timing - the price doesn't really matter. Often, neither does the company! If a company is going up, it doesn't matter what the current price is. Conversely, if the price is in decline, it doesn't matter how good or profitable the company is. Here lies the problem: we don't *really* know if the price is going up. Or down. Yes, technical charts can help somewhat but this is just to an extent.

Nowadays, I try to do these: (1) Ensure the company is solid plus with dividends. This way, if I have to settle and wait, at least I can comfort myself with the dividends.

(2) Use technical charts to see when the best (or better) time is to buy it - see whether there is a breakout. Try ChartNexus.com's free program first. But one will have to learn how to read the charts. Over time, you will get better. Yes, all trades start as contra with me - if I can profit within the period, well and fine. If I can't, and if I still feel it's a good price, I will settle and wait.

I've also learned that patience is indeed a virtue. As long as we don't buy near a company's historical high price, and if it's a solid company, we tend to make a profit if we wait long enough. Finally, never put everything in one basket no matter how seemingly good it looks. It's better to be cautious and diversify - different counters PLUS at different times. With SKPETRO for instance: everyone knows it's a good company. So, when it was in the 1.90-something, we should have bought "some" - not all of the allocated capital but maybe one-third or so. This way, if it were to go down to 1.80-something, we can buy another one-third. If it goes up before that, then it's great for we will at least get something.

This is what I'm trying to do with OSK. It's fortunate I didn't put all my allocated capital at 1.40 despite feeling it's "already low".

ingwong: Remember, these are just *opinions* and I have been wrong so many times before. Even when a counter's price looks `low enough', we have seen how it can go even lower. There are various variables that will come into play and decide whether it goes up or down. The future - this is something that we simply can't guarantee about.

That said, since we are in this investing/trading business, we simply must take risks to try and benefit. The other alternatives are fixed deposits - safe but with crummy interest. Or trust funds - not really safe and often get beaten by direct trading in the stock market.

Having said that, when it comes to OSK, I believe we can take a calculated risk with it. Especially at this price. That's because of the RHB Capital deal - further news about it is bound to move the price. Upwards seems to be the more probable.

#dknycom - You've gotten it at a very reasonable price and the downside should be low. I bought at a higher price - 1.40. The price was affected by the general downturn in the market. So, if the market goes up next week, OSK should recover too.

I'm betting on these: (1) there is value in this counter at current prices (2) OSK will have to throw in some sweeteners if they want to get the 75% approval.

As @jpleow mentioned above, the major shareholders need 75% of the votes to approve the sale to RHB Capital. But they control only 52%. This means the minority shareholders like us will have a big say in this.

We don't mind the sale - however, what's in it for us? Why should we content with having a 10% stake in RHB Capital if it's only for the main shareholder to use as basis for his own power in it? At the very least, OSK will have to give some sort of a special dividend. Better yet, distribute the RHB Capital shares. We are small but in this case we have power if we act together to put pressure. This deal would be scuttled if OSK can't get the 75% at the EGM.

From the "nexttrade" blog by Alex Lu, a remisier with Kenanga, has this opinion:

[Quote] "RHBCap is a cheap banking stock. On that basis, it is a good buy. OSK will turn into a property stock, with a sizable stake in RHBCap. As a property stock, it would attract a lower PE multiple, which may cause the share price to drop a bit. However, I believe OSK will distribute the RHBCap stake (245 million shares) to its shareholders. Based on current outstanding shares of 965 million, it would work out to be 1 RHBCap share for every 4 OSK shares owned. If you work on that basis, OSK would be a cheap entry into RHBCap." [End Quote]

OSK is now at 1.40. I believe the dust from last week's disappointment, plus the heavy selling on Monday due to worries over Europe, could be over. If Alex Lu is correct, then OSK investors could be sitting on a tidy profit in the near future -- 1 RHB Cap for 4 OSK or 25%, with the former at 7.30 now would be a great deal.

Hebat betul SKPetro ni - managed to claw back the loss earlier to finish HIGHER!

Now it's moving again! Maybe investors are finally beginning to see how undervalued it is.

For speculators, this is the type of company which you can either make a very tidy profit with or otherwise. One or the other. The question - as with other similar companies - is *when*. If you had bought late last week (and sold earlier), you would be laughing and in a really jolly mood right now. But if you had come in later, you'd likely be quite tense; hoping it will go up again.

I wouldn't dare to answer whether now is the right time to buy. Personally, I might buy if it goes a bit lower (at below 14)... and wait for the next upswing cycle. Remember, there are many contra positions outstanding, with traders who bought at 16-18 sen looking to get out. There will be pressure on the price today and tomorrow, with a downswing more likely than it going up. Perhaps it's more prudent to wait and see first.

Yup. Based on past experiences, that would often be the case. When the company is good, it *will* go up. But if one is looking at the short term, perhaps he should look elsewhere (although Mudajaya can also bring in contra profits if one times it right).

Patience is indeed a virtue when it comes to companies like this. SOP, for instance - it was in the RM2 range for so long. Then there's Takaful, plus dozens others. Those who were patient were rewarded. I have the same feeling with Mudajaya. One day, in the not-too-distant future, Insyaaalah, we can all look back at this thread and now... and laugh or shake our heads when we see the price at 4.00:-) Time will tell.

I'll save you guys the trouble of searching. Here are two of the documents:

"Don't Get Cold Feet over Coal Supply" (April 2012) http://www.scribd.com/doc/95378200

"Enjoying an Indian Summer with a Power Plant Tour" (21 May 2012) http://www.scribd.com/doc/95377964

About the power plant in India, Mudajaya has taken pains to explain the situation. The coal `shortage', for instance - this came about due to instigations by some opposition political parties who want to sell at a higher price than what was contracted for. This, for some analysts, `create uncertainties'. But Mudajaya insists that would not be a problem since the supply, with Coal India, is signed and sealed. And India's president has issued a presidential directive for Coal India to supply the agreed quantity at the specified price.

It won't matter who rules India - the contract is legally binding. There are links to a few reports by CIMB at the Mudajaya profile here at i3investor that should provide more information.

As for the price, someone had commented that it could be because of the ESOS scheme where some employees would sell whenever the price goes up a bit for immediate profit. But they will run out of shares sooner or later. And fund managers too will finally see the value in this company (instead of putting money into some dumbass counters that are already overpriced). Personally, I'll be in for the longer term - there aren't too many companies that is selling so cheaply. My price range is the same as you mentioned and I will hang on. The dividends will be a consolation while I wait.

"MBSB serves Silver Bird with RM19.6mil claim" http://bit.ly/Nd1wHO - This shouldn't be too big a shock because we already know SilverBird is having cashflow problems. But what's crucial are the new management's plans to handle the various debts and what their actions will be after receiving the forensic report on irregularities. By the way, the company secretary has been replaced, according to a filing with BSKL today.

OSK also received cash from the sale. Might there be the possibility it would use that to pay out a special dividend of some sort to appease the minority shareholders?

The OSK analyst had based the "Hold" call after doing a technical analysis only, most likely. Have to eat humble pie when it shot past 2.66. When analysing, one must also take into consideration the fundamentals - after all, isn't this what pricing stocks are about? I believe we should use a combination of technical analysis, fundamentals and current economic situation to decide on what to buy and when.

By the way, when it comes to analysts, no one can get it right all the time, of course. But based on my own experience, Affin is often correct than not. One of the most noticeable is on Bumi Armada last month when it was around 4.50. Almost all the other analysts made a "Buy" call - only Affin said "Take your profits now" that day. And Bumi Armada suffered a sharp fall to below 4.00 that day.

Harcharanjit: It's okay. After rising the past few session, I wouldn't be surprised if it were to consolidate a bit. This will give a chance to those who missed out to come in. There will be a new support level and when it is strong enough, will help push the price up.

Tabung Haji bought more than 600,000 today. Attracted by the dividend, most likely, which isn't too far away.
Tabung Haji fellows: Tomorrow, please buy some more, okay? Thank you...

Guys, is this really a bad deal for OSK Holdings (and us investors/speculators)? RHB is buying the stock-broking division by paying with RHB shares plus some cash. That means OSK Holdings will have fluid shares that are of high value plus money... but no business.

The question is, if there won't be any capital repayment, what is OSK Holdings going to do with the shares and money? This sounds something like Kurnia Asia, which sold the local insurance business to AMMB (or is it Am Bank?). Or is OSK Holdings just going to sit around `goyang kaki' to receive dividends from its RHB shares?...plus sell (like us traders) from time to time when the price goes up? If there is good income from that, I say why not?

It has recovered Monday's drop at the end of today's session. To tell you the truth, I was also hoping it would dip just a little bit more so that I could buy a few more lots:-) And I know there are many waiting for such an opportunity. Right now, YTLP is rather well-supported. If Europe doesn't spook the market again like two weeks ago, it should inch up further.

mhafizan: Your comment is the best explanation I've heard so far on why Mudajaya can't get to the level where it should be, earnings-wise. But sooner or later, these employees won't have any more shares to sell, right?... unless if the company keeps granting them more shares.

Anyway, the dividends are quite okay. It should attract institutional fund managers into buying at current prices to get the dividends. We'll see how things go - right now, the technical analysis by CP Teh says the upswing is capped at around 2.80. I feel it will go higher.

Share price aside, investors/speculators should take note of MAS sukuk loans. Buyers of its new bonds are expecting a 6% annual return rate which is a bit on the high side. But MAS will have to oblige considering it is not exactly a rock-solid company. And the rate is better than MAS borrowing from the Along:-) http://bit.ly/LA6rDb

aunloke: Thanks. I'm keeping it in my "To Buy" folder. Right now it's quiet but sooner or later investors will notice its worth.

mhafizan: That will affect its upward movement, especially when employees look at the short term and sell for just a few sen of profit.

aunloke: Which company is that, please? That's another company that should be in the RM3.00-4.00 range, at least.

Fund Managers: Please answer Harcharanjit's question:-) By the way, Mudajaya's management has done its part. They had brought analysts and journalists to visit the plant in India, besides giving regular briefings. And they are executing a share buy back strategy now.

True. EPS of more than 40 sen for the past couple of years PLUS dividends but selling at below 3.00. If this isn't a bargain, I don't know what is.

Gajah is right - we just go along with the ride and jump off at the slightest sign of danger. Remember this: we are businessmen in that we don't really care about the company but *ourselves*, selfish that it sounds.

Oh, ok, thanks, Lee Passat. The one quoted was from a previous Affin newsletter. Now this is even better - 4 sen:-)

EPF has been accumulating it since some weeks ago and it would have gone much higher than this. Unfortunately, the major shareholders had been selling rather heavily, resulting in the slide. This appears to have ended; hence, the good showing since last week. I'd say today's small drop is good - consolidating the gains before making another upward movement.

Anyway, this is the kind of stock that institutional buyers would hold. Until just a few weeks ago, plantation stocks were the flavour of the year with every analyst and his grandmother extolling them as having "strong defensive power and high yield". Well, the sharp drop in CPO prices has resulted in them changing their line. Now the previous darlings like SOP etc. are being slowly abandoned. Investors have to put their money elsewhere and the flavour is changing to utilities and telecommunications. YTL Power should benefit from this trend in the next few weeks.

The EPS of 13.6 sen is higher than Petronas Chemical's 13. If Mudajaya can maintain it in the next quarter - or even a bit less - it would easily be in the 4.00-5.50-plus price range. I just can't understand why fund managers aren't putting more of their money into this company.

By the way, folks - Mudajaya is paying a 2.5 sen/share dividend next month. Might not be that much but still if you have many lots, the extra $$$ is welcomed.

Ah, yes, I forgot to add that about the government. We have to think like businessmen and try to be objective (after all, our purpose is in trying to make money).

Regardless of what one thinks of the company or the government, we must live with the fact that the latter is not going to let MAS die, as Chong mentioned. Even if there's a change in government, it's unlikely the Pakatan Rakyat government will let it die either. National pride is at stake here. In the worst-case situation, it could be merged with AirAsia, with the latter having full say over the running, of course.

But let's not get ahead of this. Let's just consider the near future: one positive is the arrival of the new jets. It will take some time for the benefits to kick in but merely having these jets alone will result in more interest in MAS and boost morale. Like I said earlier, although there's always the possibility the price might go lower, I'd say at of it going up in the next few months is more likely.

At 1.06, I'm going to take the risk with MAS. It's true that it suffered a huge loss last year - more than RM2 billion - and things aren't going well for the airline business. AirAsia is the better company, true, but its current price is on the high side - I'd be more comfortable if it's around 3.30 or so.

Depending on how one looks at it, I would say that despite still making a loss in the last quarter, it is lower than last year's results. Some of the plans to overcome its problems have already been announced, plus cost-cutting. Investors and the government are no longer as tolerant with the crony companies that overcharge for various services to MAS. I feel there is more will to be competitive and not put up with these politically-connected vendors anymore given its dire situation. The lower fuel prices should also help in the present quarter.

So, at 1.06, there are some similarities with Silver Bird - all the negative news have already been priced in. If some positive news come in, there should be an upswing in the price. Let's see how it goes over the next few months.

Yup, it's now in a good mood and being very sweet. But remember what J. Harcharanjit Singh had said: This is a gila stock:-) Have to set a target on selling with this particular upswing. The technical analysis by CP Teh says 2.80 might be a good time to get out. Let's see how it goes this time. But whatever, Mudajaya is a fundamentally good company with 40-plus EPS over the past few years. It should easily be above 3.00.

The bird is flying again!

Yup, it's now retracing the slide of the past 2 months or so. Things look promising. The 1Bestarinet contract is crucial in helping the YES network. And its power-generating business is doing well enough despite registering less profit in the last quarter. This is a solid counter - the previous problem was with YTL Corp selling down its stake.

Now many are regretting not buying when it was below 2.00:-) There goes the chance. In my opinion, if we are convinced that something is a good company, we should ignore the negative sentiments and just go ahead. One need not put all his money in - just some of it.

Oh, okay. I'll lower my entry price a bit...1.30.

1.33 - this is more like my entry price. Here we go...

I'm getting interested in JCY. Had not paid much attention before this because it is highly favoured by speculators. I'm more of a fundamentalist: first and foremost, the company must be sound.

Then I read its latest quarter report - the earnings are impressive! Looks like it should be able to maintain this in the next quarter. But even if it were to be lower, that would still be okay since the last quarter has contributed a lot for the year's total. Based on EPS, this company, in my opinion, should be priced at above 2.00.

I'm coming in very soon - just waiting to get a better price.

Looks like HLIB's defensive stocks aren't too solid. Only CMMT and Maxis are defending well since the reference date. I would have included YTL Power in this list.

Heheh! Can't blame him, Chong. His contra period is over and he has to leave the party.

Quite a few software. Some local brokerage firms also provide this facility through your account. If you want a desktop program, try ChartNexus. But it requires some learning first to get better understanding of how to interpret the charts. There's this useful link to get started about technical analysis: http://bit.ly/JWJiWQ

It is perceived to be a politically-connected company and its fortunes are tied on whether the BN will do well in the next GE. If one is confident that will indeed be the case, with BN doing better than 2008, then it will become a favourite again. I believe it will have its time in the sun again. At this low price, it's a good strategy to hold some and wait it out. Just getting to 2.00 would already bring in significant profits.

That's Mudajaya for you - it is temperamental and volatile. But when it's in `a good mood', it can be very sweet.