Posted by eagleis > 2012-05-31 09:18 | Report Abuse

Investment basics : when in doubt, avoid. Or have only little exposure. That's what I do. At least 6.5 sen of dividend on the way.

Posted by j harcharanjit a/l jalaur singh dhillon > 2012-05-31 10:20 | Report Abuse

my remiser just replied to me on this from research house reports



Dear Mr. Harcharanjit,

The recent new that i know is about their project in India. Some of the Fund manager might cautious on the potential delay in physical works(coal supply shortages) for its India site. Kindly refer the article as below:-



Mudajaya's 1QFY12 net profit of RM74.2m came in way above our and consensus, representing 30.8% and 30.7% of the respective full-year forecasts, owing to higher contribution from ongoing works in Chhattisgarh, India. The company proposed a first interim DPS of 4.0 sen. While we are revising our FY12 forecast upward on accelerated recognition of works for its ongoing project in Chhattisgarh, we are maintaining our NEUTRAL call pending more affirmative indications on Coal India's ongoing negotiations with power producers in India.


Beats expectations on recognition of India works. Mudajaya's 1QFY12 revenue amounted to RM440.5m (+2.3% q-o-q, +97.5% y-o-y), while core earnings came in at RM74.2m (+11.7% q-o-q, +80.0% y-o-y). These numbers generally represent some decent improvements for both sequential and y-o-y, owing to the delivery of major equipment components of its EPC contract for the 4x360MW coal-fired power plant at Chhattisgarh, India during the quarter. Management guided that it has recognized close to RM400m of the project at its top-line level during the quarter, which implies that its EPC contract on RKM Powergen stood at an outstanding balance of RM1.1bn as of March 2012. In view of its sturdy books with cash per share at RM0.45 and nil borrowings, management proposed a first interim DPS of 4.0 sen.

Revised forecasts.We revisited our model to tweak our assumptions to account for the speedier recognition of Mudajaya's ongoing works in Chhattisgarh. With that, our FY12 net profit forecast is revised upward by 10.9% but our FY13 core earnings is lowered by 5.5% consequently. Our revised FY12 net profit estimate of RM267.1m still falls short of the annualized 1QFY12 earnings of RM298.4m as we are cautious on the potential delay in physical works for its India site, as the upcoming monsoon season that typically runs from end-June to late-August in Chhattisgarh could potentially slow down the project's progress.


NEUTRAL. Although Mudajaya's 1QFY12 results trumped both our and street estimates and would likely attract some buying interest in the near term, we continue to take a cautious stance on the stock in light of the potential downside risks arising from coal supply shortages in India. Note that a source from India's Coal Ministry highlighted that the ministry had received a letter from Coal India (CIL) saying that it would be not possible to meet the mandated 80% coal requirements of the power firms. On the other hand, CIL's subsidiary Mahanadi Coalfields Ltd was slapped with a hefty INR13bn fine by the Orissa state government for mining coal without statutory clearances in the area. These developments warrant our cautious stance on Mudajaya and hence, we maintain our NEUTRAL call at a revised FV of RM2.88, which pegs a 50% discount to our SOP valuation.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2012-05-31 10:39 | Report Abuse

I think the worst is over, I expect the stock price to be firmed and coming back. I am just waiting for buy signal to be out before I buy.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by kl foong > 2012-05-31 10:41 | Report Abuse

Bro. Harcharanjit, TQVM for sharing.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-05-31 10:53 | Report Abuse

About the power plant in India, Mudajaya has taken pains to explain the situation. The coal `shortage', for instance - this came about due to instigations by some opposition political parties who want to sell at a higher price than what was contracted for. This, for some analysts, `create uncertainties'. But Mudajaya insists that would not be a problem since the supply, with Coal India, is signed and sealed. And India's president has issued a presidential directive for Coal India to supply the agreed quantity at the specified price.

It won't matter who rules India - the contract is legally binding. There are links to a few reports by CIMB at the Mudajaya profile here at i3investor that should provide more information.

As for the price, someone had commented that it could be because of the ESOS scheme where some employees would sell whenever the price goes up a bit for immediate profit. But they will run out of shares sooner or later. And fund managers too will finally see the value in this company (instead of putting money into some dumbass counters that are already overpriced). Personally, I'll be in for the longer term - there aren't too many companies that is selling so cheaply. My price range is the same as you mentioned and I will hang on. The dividends will be a consolation while I wait.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-05-31 11:12 | Report Abuse

I'll save you guys the trouble of searching. Here are two of the documents:

"Don't Get Cold Feet over Coal Supply" (April 2012) http://www.scribd.com/doc/95378200

"Enjoying an Indian Summer with a Power Plant Tour" (21 May 2012) http://www.scribd.com/doc/95377964

Posted by mhafizan > 2012-05-31 11:29 | Report Abuse

if u confident, buy n hold forever n u can never go wrong.price will move lne day buy i dont expect in near future

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-05-31 11:39 | Report Abuse

Yup. Based on past experiences, that would often be the case. When the company is good, it *will* go up. But if one is looking at the short term, perhaps he should look elsewhere (although Mudajaya can also bring in contra profits if one times it right).

Patience is indeed a virtue when it comes to companies like this. SOP, for instance - it was in the RM2 range for so long. Then there's Takaful, plus dozens others. Those who were patient were rewarded. I have the same feeling with Mudajaya. One day, in the not-too-distant future, Insyaaalah, we can all look back at this thread and now... and laugh or shake our heads when we see the price at 4.00:-) Time will tell.

Posted by j harcharanjit a/l jalaur singh dhillon > 2012-05-31 13:41 | Report Abuse

thanks brothers for the feedback

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2012-05-31 14:18 | Report Abuse

Please use technical to buy once fundamental is good. Technical charting help you to enter at the right timing.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by kl foong > 2012-05-31 16:33 | Report Abuse

It's coming. Let hope it can sustain the up trend so that all of us can take profit.

Posted by j harcharanjit a/l jalaur singh dhillon > 2012-06-01 09:31 |

Post removed.Why?