FACT No 2 :
DK 66 research n observation on Mong Duong ( which is nearly identical to Jaks Hai Duong ) performance, clearly indicated a high possibility of Jaks power plant annualized earning of rm244M or more. This btw also tally with the hearing from the horses mouth of rm260M
Thats EPS of 38c !!! PTL

===================================

DK66 : Mong Duong II was operating at dismal utilisation rate. The tariff payments were majority made up of capacity charge with minimal energy charge from electricity sales. Operating at low utilisation rate require HFO as supplement fuel. This eroded profit margin as HFO is more expensive in term of heat value.

However, improvements were witnessed in 2019 as evidenced by the increase in dividend from US$88m to US$145m.

FACT NO 1 : Probability is absolutely right about Steam Blow test for Hai Duong power plant. It mark the transition phase from construction to Commercial Operation. Thats happening right now. 4th Jan2020 is just 1 wk away .PTL


=======================================
probability : To all those who bought Jaks and holding it
presently....

Note that the steam blow test is scheduled on 4th Jan. Its as good as ready for generating power. The next few months is purely procedural activities for commercial operation.

Letting it go now is the dumbest mistake one can ever make.

Joyful and peaceful Christmas for all. Hopeful and a future for 2020. PTL

Like Warren B pointed out..short term the market is like voting machine (everyone have their says..the good , bad n ugly ) ; long term it is a weighting machine ( the truth revealed !!!)

>hng33.....Jaks Resource to JAKS POWER....thats very appropriate and a good name to have ! It mark the start of a new season in life and beginning 2020 !!!

Good job Pjseow...for 20yrs range any compounded return above 10% is v good. 18 to 20% is supergood !!! Only worldclass super guru goes well beyong that ie Buffet and Peter Lyn doing 30% range. Keep going 2020

The starts are aligned..FED keeping rate for foreseeable futur, Trump imminient signing of trade deal n HaiDuong starting test run.....Jaks can only move forward like never before. PTL

Thanks Ramada for the updates, CPECC does inspire great confidence in what they do.

Its very rare that you can have such a beautiful combination of factors working positively and synchronously . Jaks and CPECC (China Power Engineering Consulting Company ) venture is one such rare gem !!! Jaks has played the part that it possibly could in :
(1 )securing a license to built the Hai Duong 1200MW Coal fired power plant
(2 )obtaining the juicy Hai Duong BOT contract , ensuring 12% to 15% IRR and payback of 8yr or less
(3) engaging a world class Partner , CPECC in the execution plan.

CPECC is essentially fully responsible for the Built and Operate portion of the Hai Duong BOT. CPECC is one of China’s largest Electric Power company , successfully build and installed more than 200 power plants providing 60,000MW of Power in China and around the world. It has more than 130,000 employee , annual sales exceeding US$35B and is a fortune 500 company !

I am grateful for what Jaks (via APL) has done. And now it is CPECC’s turn to deliver and my confidence in CPECC is super strong and high . Repeat, it is not Jaks but CPECC that is tasked to Built and Operate !!!!!

===========================================================
Ramada > Just want to share some beautiful power plant photos with you guys.
http://www.apcc2.com/art/2019/12/1/art_47952_2027408.html
02/12/2019 4:29 PM

plseow,
The largest running cost component for Jaks plant is obviously coal/fuel . Based on studies by DK66, this portion is protected and a pass-through item as part of the Tariff contract. Pls refer to DK66's article : https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/199051.jsp


"The PPA provides for EVN to purchase and the BOT Company to sell electricity generating capacity and electricity generated by the Facility for 25 years after the commercial operation date of the Facility unless extended or earlier terminated as stipulated under the PPA. The tariff charged by JAKS Hai Duong to EVN comprises the capacity charge, energy charge and supplemental charge. Fuel (coal and secondary fuel) and limestone costs will be passed-through costs under the PPA.
Therefore, fluctuation in fuel costs has no impact on the power plant operations."

============================
pjseow
Although mfcb Power plant is more cost effective compared with JAKS power plant operated using coal,.the Mekong river do have seasonal high and low.water.volume. Coal.is cheap.and abundant .In fact coal power plant is the 2nd most cost effective .JAKS has an option to own 40% of the power plant which effectively.equate to 480 MW . This is 2.3 x of mfcb owned 208 MW.27/11/2019 10:51 PM

Right on Icwin. Note following statement :

May 3, 2019 5:48 PM | Report Abuse

"Based on comprehensive study by the Joint Mekong Basin Planning committee , the average Capacity Factor for all the Hydro Power Station along the mekong river system range from 40% to 60% ! There are now more than 150 Hydro Power stations at various stages of running ,construction or planning along the poor Mekong, shared with Laos,Cambodia,Vietnam n Thai. ! The Hoover Dam in US runs at 23% and the 3Gorges Dam at 45%. On the other hand Modern Coal fired power station capacity factor run anywhere from 70% to 90%. Well you do the math."

So here’s my take for Qtr3 financial. Pay attention to the assumptions provided and gives your input !!! Note that this is just best effort forecasting and for the fun of it .

Net Profit(due share holders ) = rm48.2M or EPS of 8
YoY = as previous year qtr is negative there is no comparison. (I wish last yr was at rm4.8M, then the IB can boost of 10 fold increase !!! )
QoQ = up 29.3% Note the the prior Qtr 2 was already at an all time record at rm37.3M, so was Qtr 1 at rm28.6M then.

Assumptions :
1 Viet EPC assume Qtr3 billing at rm260M.(Qtr1=rm255.8M and Qtr2=rm226.4M ) At 24% margin(same as Qtr2’s margin) gives rm62.4M This is a record Qtr as can be seen from the series of major works done from updates provided by Ricky. Billing may not equal work done but the uptrend is there.
2 Assume local construction lost of rm2M. This is the average lost of 1st half 2019. Do not foresee major changes in this area.
3 Assume Property division lost is rm10.5M. This is the average lost of 1st half 2019. LAD provision is included.
4 Assume Investment n Others division lost is rm1.7M. This is the average lost of 1st half 2019. As the Evolve mall has attain more than 80% occupancy from Qtr3, this assumption is conservative.

So bottom line : 62.4-2-10.5-1.7 = rm48.2M

================================================================
Vin3133 : Dear edkfc, pls do the calculations by putting in 2019 Q3 forecasted
figures & see what % u get for YoY & QoQ .
Yes, just for the fun of it !!

lim900510....tq for sharing your insights with clear logical explanation. Below is the translation of your link :

600,000 Haiyang, Vietnam: The start of boiler boiler work ended successfully
On November 11, the Haiyang project in Vietnam started the boiler oven and the boiler was successfully completed.
　　In order to promote the installation progress of the boiler room, the project department and professional department actively communicated with the EPC, OE, and commissioning units to determine the scheme for starting the boiler oven and the boiler fuel using the temporary oil system for oil supply. In order to ensure the safety and stability of the temporary oil system during the startup of the boiler, the professional department installed a temporary cooling water system in the temporary oil tank area for fuel cooling, and combined with the professional installation of the oil temperature monitoring system to monitor the oil temperature, when the temperature exceeds a certain temperature. At the temperature, the cooling water is turned on to cool down, and the project department arranges the fire water truck and professional firefighters to be on duty for 24 hours. In the case of ensuring foolproof, the start-up boiler was officially ignited on November 7, and the 11th ended successfully. The start of the boiler oven and the successful completion of the boiler provided a guarantee for the auxiliary steam system to be purged, and laid a solid foundation for the subsequent commissioning of the entire unit. (Cai Tanghou)

Good idea Vin3133...for the fun of it , lets do some estimation and post our Q3" forecasted "net profit to share holder . Put in our assumption too !

Oh mine...up 10c n at 126 n still continueing with with strong momentum .!!! PTL

Hi Nikmon and all ; here is one piece of goodnews coming up soon : the Qtr 3 financial results is expected to be great and even better than Qtr 2 (which itself was a record Qtr ! ). Here's why. I have reviewed (and all of you can do that to..) the Vietnam Power Plant updates as posted by Ricky kiat . Rick's updates can be fully trusted as he took it direct from CECP's website(China Energy Construction Group) A big applaud and thankyou to Ricky for diligently updating without fail, not even once !! Qtr 3 (July to sept) represent the peak and heaviest construction, installation and testing activities so far . In fact it was so critical that the CPECG management organised a challenge/competition to its staff to carry out and complete all those key milestone projects over a 50days period from mid July to end Aug ! And they succeed. I take some quotes from Ricky's updates as below :


“Vietnam's Haiyang Power Plant is located on the banks of the Jingshi River in Haiyang Province, about 100 kilometers east of Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam. It is the largest project that China can build overseas and is the largest single investment by Chinese companies in Vietnam. After the completion of the power station, in addition to meeting the local electricity demand, it will also transmit electricity to Hanoi and surrounding provinces

“The peak construction period is concentrated in August and September, which is the highest time in summer in Vietnam. This brings a lot of test to the quality, safety and progress of the construction.”


“The “Fighting in Haiyang” stage of the merit-based competition was jointly attended by all the staff involved in the project, from mid-July to the end of August, for a period of about 50 days. The activity aims to promote the smooth progress of various targets such as schedule, safety and quality of the project site, especially for the successful realization of the three major milestones of water, electric power and turbine buckle at the end of August. “

“Recently, the Chinese Embassy in Vietnam, Cui Dongming, Zhao Wanpeng, Zhang Yi and Director of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office Zhu Yu and his party went to the 2×600MW project in Haiyang, Vietnam to carry out the “Do Not Forget the Heart, Keep in Mind Mission” theme education and joint school joint activities, and The construction situation was investigated and ten party members of the Haiyang project attended the discussion.”


So folks, cheer-up and enjoy the rides. PTL



================================================
Posted by Nikmon > Nov 12, 2019 6:34 PM | Report Abuse

No easy to up, resistance is strong, need good news.

SSlee, there are some of us who have learnt valuable lessons thru your generous sharing. In particular your approach in questioning, engaging and handling of BOD in AGM and even followed thru till satisfactory response from BOD after AGM! Your diligence in ploughing thru annual, qtly reports is exemplary too. These (and others) are qualities that adds up towards building a sound investing concept n lifestyle.Thankyou.

Agreed ! Thats the only conclusion, whichever way you cut it !!! 2 yrs ago, Jaks was around rm1:80, the Power Plant was not even 50% done and the Pacific Star project was struggling . Now, today the Power Plant is as good as done deal and the Pacific Star Tower and Commercial units are awaiting CCC . How good can you get, your call.


===============================
Icon8888 : going all the way back to 180

: at least

11/11/2019 9:02 AM

DK66...thanks for the exceedingly exciting news from Mong Duong !!! So if annualised, Jaks could
be earning rm244M (30%equity) and rm324M(40%equity) !!!
Also if Mong Duong plant which is nearly identical to Jaks Power Plant for all practical purposes can produce enough electricity and earn a return of US88M in ONE Single Qtr !!! Likewise Jaks Power Plant will have that same capacity and capability ! Wow. PTL


Posted by DK66 : Based on US$145m in 9 months, Jaks could be receiving RM183m for its 30% share or RM244m for 40%.
06/11/2019 10:05 PM

Ramada, thanks for latest updates n yes almost done and as good as done !
Love the rainbow...thats a promise from above. PTL

Ramada >The latest Hai Duong Power Plant photo which has taken on 16th October 2019, almost done. Got rainbow behind, please take a look.

qqq...like anyone else you are certainly entitled to your freedom of speech. But not when you abuse and repeatedly abuse your rights and at the expense of the rest of us. You made your case of accusing someone being a conman hundreds of times here and maybe thousands of time elsewhere !. You can rest your case, move on and let us be the judge. tq

Nikmon...APL was born for such a time as this , getting the Hai Duong contract against all odds , partnering a giant CCEC with favorable deal and tenaciously endured for 10year to see his baby coming to fruition ! A man may fall many times, if he can get up each time , learning from his past and moving forward towards his goal ...he has a futur . Kudos. PTL

About a year ago, roughly only 20% of news concerning Jaks is positive, 6months ago it is about 60% , now it is 80% or more !!! Also the Macro picture is turning positive for a change ( Trump and Boris getting their deal..China n Brexit ). Locally, the 2020 Budget generates overall positive vibes for the market. Over at Jaks , we are now at The Final Count Down stage.....be grateful n thankful everyone to be on board this ship !!! PTL

OTB..my salutation , man of your status/reputation and able to take full responsibility and apologising in public !!! Full support too for the proposed field trip to Vietnam Powerplant. Thankyou

"Pride goes before destruction,
And a haughty spirit before a fall.
It is better to be humble in spirit with the lowly
Than to divide the spoil with the proud (haughty, arrogant)."

Wow what a day to remember Jaks's resurrection on 1010...Congrats to supporters n contributors to this forum..esp DK66,ICON 888,Ricky,SSLee,Sarifah,OTB,Kcchong,deMusangking..many others. Best is yet to come . PTL

Hi DK66...happy bd, may this wish/prayer be yours : "A generous person will prosper; whoever refreshes others will be refreshed." Proverb 11:25

DK66
No doubt about it..plus Qtr3 that just end should be exciting given the feverish pace of construction progress. Pretty sure better news coming out from Pacific Star and the Evolve mall too over the next couple of months . PTL

i am reposting to get your opinion...tks

DK66 and KCChongnz and others with interest in finding DCF for Jaks ! Seeking your opinion if the following formula is technically correct and can be reliably used for forecasting Jaks's Vietnam Power Project Free Cashflow with stated assumptions ?

Scenarios when cash inflows are even for all periods :

NPV = [R ×1 − (1 + i)power-n− PV]/i

In the above formula,
PV = Initial Investment
R is the net cash inflow expected to be received in each period;
i is the required rate of return per period;
n are the number of periods during which the project is expected to operate and generate cash inflows.

If we take i=IRR; NPV = 0
Therefore :

NPV = [R ×1 − (1 + i)power-n− PV]/i = 0

Hence R = PV/ {1 − (1 + i)power-n }/i

Thanks guys...hope to start a fruitful discussion !

Glad to see earnest and fruitful sharing going on here...D-Day is not so far away

Dear SS Lee, will do n thanks again. Above messages at least capture the essence of Jaks AGM . So now what do you think of Jaks , Jaks future n Jaks BOD ? . What other top 3 critical questions you still have, if any ? .
Thanyou

SSLee..amazing , you have taken Q&A and engaging BOD to another level ! Certainly, well though thru n crafted questions helps a lot in AGM environment.

Philip...i sincerely wish i was wrong, or maybe the CFO/CEO are being ultra conservative but there were 100plus other shareholder in the AGM !

Icon...we ran out of time, the question on waste water project was not raised. After 1hr of q&a , mostly on the pacific star n vietnam power project , the chairman ask for last q before voting .n ending.

Rm80 to 100million is to Jaks

Some key points i noted are :
1 Management is sticking to its commitment in completing the entire Pacific Star project by end 2019, with Star tower given 1st priority.

2 with regards to Jaks claim that the final rightful due delivery date of Star tower is on Aug2020 is cause by Start making significant changes to the building design in second half of 2017 ( it took a few repeated questioning by shareholders to get this specific response)

3 One of the key points strongly emphasised by CEO n other BOD on the PPA agreement is the signing is with central government n not with the provintial.

4 Another key point strongly emphasized by CEO n BOD on the PPA is the Guaranteed Purchase of power @ 6500hrs per year of output. Its practically an unconditional guaranteed. No one else have such PPA anymore !

5 After much repeated questioning by several shareholders on financial returns of the Haiduong project, CFO ( after short conversation w CEO) indicated a net return of rm80 to rm100 million annually at full commercial run.

These are the points that capture my interest. I am sure many others have received more...if so pls share for the benefits of all. PTL

No. CFO indicated the verbal presentation on 2018 Financials by Elaine covers most of it ( i did not agree on that ). So we were ask to repeat questions not cover, which few of us did , and BOD responded well. As they were more questions after1hr, shareholder were ask to write in.

The AGM was indeed good , lively n engaging. I like the fact that the BOD was keen n eager to response n engage with shareholder. QnA time lasted slightly more than an hour. 6 to 7 ppl ask a range of questions , mostly on the Pacific Star project n Vietnam power plant.

AGM is on Tuesday 25June 10am @ Evolve Mall !!!

SSLee, thanks again for the guiding hand. As "brushsoo" has submitted SSLee's list , I have crafted and submitted another questions list (minimum overlapping with SSLee's list ). Do encourage more people to write in or at least turn up for the AGM !!! If you own a share, you are an owner !!!

My proposal for several individuals to post sections of questions (Refer to SSLee's blog ) You can use SSLee’s writeup as it or add/substrate as you deem necessary. Others can post more questions as you wish. Do sent email within next 1 or 2 days to Elaine Tai and Rohana of Jaks Resources.

Edkfc —— A. Pacific Star Project and MNH’s Evolve Mall

 
SarifahSelinda —— B. JAKS Sdn Bhd local construction project
 
DK66 —— C. Golden Keen Holdings Limited (EPC 2 contract: USD454.5 million works in Vietnam Power plant)
 
DK66 —— D: 1200 MW coal-fired Hai Duong, Vietnam power plant.

Ricky Kiat —— E: JAKS Resources Berhad (“Company”)’s Long Term Incentive Plan (“LTIP”)

SSLee, many thanks for your analysis and contributions, despite not being a shareholder yet ! Hope many more will step forward to present a formidable front in a dialogue with BOD ! I have my opinion on following questions : (Q3) I would replace "chance" with " what is the basis and fact " (Q6) I would add the following : " Has Jaks completed the Star Tower and submitted documents to regulatory authority for Certificate of Fitness ? If yes do cites document ,when was it submitted and attach copies of documents. (Q7) I will add on : " when will Evolve Mall expected to breakeven ? What is the latest status on the sales of Evolve Mall and for how much ?..just my thoughs

Last couple of days left to sent in your questions for Jaks BOD ..if you have any queries and expect answers during AGM !!!

As JAKS is at the threshold of being transformed into a significant energy company this coming AGM is significant too !!! Wonder who among you are going to attend ???

"1. a declaration that the Completion Period for JIC to deliver STAR’s entitlement under the SPA is on 20 June 2020; "

Anyone has any clue whats actually stated in the SPA ???

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/05/28/vietnams-economy-could-soon-be-bigger-than-singapores/

....already started !

DK..tks, miss that somehow !

Sarifah, can you forward link to Maybank ib report. Have you or anyone seen latest report on Jaks by Affin-Hwang ? Tks

The rainfall in Vietnam indeed spike up in 2017..by 10 to 40% as recorded by norther cities which has bigger impact on water sources. This looks like a once in 5 years or so event. ..unless el ninos go crazy. Nos run a bit after copy n paste !


Total rainfall at some stations by Vietnam Cities, provinces and Year
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Lai Chau 1,727.0 2,476.0 2,628.0 1,975.9 1,857.8 2,017.7 2,618.7 2,656.6 2,267.2 2,295.1 2,186.4 3,179.1
Sơn La 1,212.0 1,353.0 2,083.0 1,002.4 1,209.8 1,093.4 1,480.0 1,540.0 1,414.6 1,803.4 1,472.3 1,382.0
Tuyen Quang 1,596.0 1,294.0 1,721.0 1,284.3 1,284.3 1,449.5 1,995.3 1,648.7 1,499.2 2,173.7 1,494.9 2,372.7
Ha Noi 1,240.0 1,659.0 2,268.0 1,612.1 1,239.2 1,795.2 1,801.2 1,934.7 1,660.6 1,520.0 1,631.1 1,858.8
Bai Chay 1,697.0 1,432.0 1,971.0 1,567.3 1,842.0 1,823.8 2,142.0 2,724.1 1,922.0 2,367.6 2,166.8 2,640.2
Nam Dinh 1,114.0 1,087.0 1,800.0 1,643.6 1,461.4 1,767.2 1,772.8 1,757.3 1,721.4 1,349.7 1,612.3 2,318.3
Vinh 1,951.0 1,962.0 2,120.0 1,409.2 2,716.5 2,258.6 1,892.5 2,499.3 1,466.5 1,464.2 2,174.9 2,334.7
Hue 2,479.0 4,393.0 3,850.0 3,809.1 2,854.0 4,481.0 2,370.0 2,725.7 2,309.5 2,206.3 3,799.5 4,105.4
Da Nang 2,233.0 3,063.0 2,528.0 3,017.8 2,236.8 3,647.8 1,696.1 2,316.7 2,224.1 1,872.4 2,688.7 2,285.4
Qui Nhơn 1,291.0 2,241.0 2,337.0 2,273.6 2,684.9 1,524.9 1,483.0 1,904.9 1,627.9 1,351.4 2,518.3 2,396.3
Pleiku 2,178.0 2,314.0 1,645.0 2,725.4 2,725.4 2,567.2 2,207.5 2,243.8 2,457.7 1,634.1 1,890.0 1,887.3
Da Lat 1,698.0 2,156.0 1,577.0 1,849.1 1,849.1 1,650.0 1,859.5 1,935.4 2,079.0 1,951.4 2,033.8 2,047.9
Nha Trang 819.0 1,565.0 2,301.0 1,392.5 2,657.9 1,327.6 1,681.7 1,365.4 972.2 1,450.5 2,392.2 1,381.1
Vung Tau 1,514.0 1,522.0 1,390.0 1,162.7 1,162.7 1,382.9 1,215.6 1,366.6 1,377.4 1,279.5 1,366.0 1,709.7
Ca Mau 2,387.0 2,606.0 2,679.0 2,244.4 2,244.4 2,445.9 2,153.9 1,941.3 2,065.7 2,297.2 2,304.1 2,175.2

Better still if Sslee can publish your questions in this forum. We can then post other questions not covered. We should cover all possible grounds with hard hitting but fair questions. Wks

Certainly encourage all shareholders to Go for AGM. Is your company, you own part of it no matter how big or small !