Fabien _the efficient capital allocator

fabienwks | Joined since 2010-12-10

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Stock

2017-12-29 09:46 | Report Abuse

yep, when there's some shareholders value creation activities then investors will pay attention to this stock

Stock

2017-12-28 17:37 | Report Abuse

ricky, u dumb dumb hold how many counters?

i see titan, hengyuan, ekovest and what else???

Stock

2017-12-28 14:53 | Report Abuse

Drop below 1, i'll buy

Stock

2017-12-28 14:41 | Report Abuse

I see, thanks for info.

Just checked the news:
Khoo Nang Seng @ Khoo Nam Seng sold 15 million Ekovest Bhd shares from Dec 4 to 6 and is no longer a substantial shareholder. One of the company’s co-founders, Khoo has been with the company since 1985. He was executive director until he resigned on Nov 7 to “pursue other interests”. His resignation came just weeks before Ekovest’s annual general meeting, where he was due for re-election to the board. While his shareholdings have dipped below the 5% threshold deemed as substantial, Khoo held about 105 million Ekovest shares on Dec 6, which were worth RM98.4 million at the closing price of 93.5 sen.

Stock

2017-12-28 12:40 | Report Abuse

By the way, who is this kns? mind to englighten...

Stock

2017-12-28 11:30 | Report Abuse

No value is implied for Setiawangsa-Pantai Expressway, River of Life, highways to Klang and etc, property projects

Stock

2017-12-28 11:18 | Report Abuse

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Dec 26, 2017 08:18 PM | Report Abuse

why Ekovest should be in ur 2018 portfolio...a good and viable long term investment

1) Based on IWC takeover offer, theoretically Ekovest share should worth around 1.50. With the takeover of IWC, Ekovest will see an increase in landbank of at least 900 acres.
2) Duke Expressway (60% ownership) valued at RM1.7billion (based on EPF offer for the 40% stake). Ekovest current market cap is slightly above RM2billion. Do the math.
3) Strong orderbook of more than RM13billion provides earning visibility for the next 3-5 years. Today news mentioning a potential of another RM2.5bil.
Ekovest is prime to ride on the infrastructure growth in the country.
4) Catalyst to unlock its value - listing of its highway assets as REITS (potentially can fetch around RM3.5billion at a minumum)
5) In few years time, Ekovest would see more contributions from their toll businesses which will provide a stable income neutralising the cyclical nature of construction and property income. Highway operators = cash cow business.
Management has indicated a mix of construction (40%), property (30%) and toll (30%) in the foreseeable future. I see this a potential catalyst to re-rate it's valuation multiple.

Stock

2017-12-27 20:06 | Report Abuse

As of today, Inari is 3.42.

Insas pls wake up

News & Blogs

2017-12-27 17:58 | Report Abuse

richdad's call is highly correlated to Hengyuan's share price

Stock

2017-12-27 10:48 | Report Abuse

Ekovest is a good long term investment. Accumulating slowly.

Stock

2017-12-26 20:18 | Report Abuse

why Ekovest should be in ur 2018 portfolio...a good and viable long term investment

1) Based on IWC takeover offer, theoretically Ekovest share should worth around 1.50. With the takeover of IWC, Ekovest will see an increase in landbank of at least 900 acres.
2) Duke Expressway (60% ownership) valued at RM1.7billion (based on EPF offer for the 40% stake). Ekovest current market cap is slightly above RM2billion. Do the math.
3) Strong orderbook of more than RM13billion provides earning visibility for the next 3-5 years. Today news mentioning a potential of another RM2.5bil.
Ekovest is prime to ride on the infrastructure growth in the country.
4) Catalyst to unlock its value - listing of its highway assets as REITS (potentially can fetch around RM3.5billion at a minumum)
5) In few years time, Ekovest would see more contributions from their toll businesses which will provide a stable income neutralising the cyclical nature of construction and property income. Highway operators = cash cow business.
Management has indicated a mix of construction (40%), property (30%) and toll (30%) in the foreseeable future. I see this a potential catalyst to re-rate it's valuation multiple.

Stock

2017-12-26 19:54 | Report Abuse

any reason for the sharp increase?

the last good news i checked was Wilmar is to list their China operations in 2019.

Stock

2017-12-26 16:48 | Report Abuse

someone bid 18.48...wow

Stock

2017-12-26 16:13 | Report Abuse

17.48...any news?

Stock

2017-12-24 20:46 | Report Abuse

Liihen

Annualised EPS = 43.12sen
PE ratio = 8.8x
Net cash = 45sen
ex-cash PE ratio = 7.5x (<10)
EV/EBIT = 5.65 (<7)

Pohuat

Annualised EPS = 26.11sen
PE ratio = 6.97x
Net cash = 33sen
ex-cash PER = 5.7x (<10)
EV/EBIT = 4.93 (<7)

I'm invested in both.

Stock

2017-12-24 20:45 | Report Abuse

Liihen

Annualised EPS = 43.12sen
PE ratio = 8.8x
Net cash = 45sen
ex-cash PE ratio = 7.5x (<10)
EV/EBIT = 5.65 (<7)


Pohuat

Annualised EPS = 26.11sen
PE ratio = 6.97x
Net cash = 33sen
ex-cash PER = 5.7x (<10)
EV/EBIT = 4.93 (<7)

I'm invested in both.

Stock

2017-12-23 14:28 | Report Abuse

Average industry PE is 9x.

TP = 0.30 * 9 = 2.70

Stock

2017-12-23 14:24 | Report Abuse

at the end of the day, market perception also holds water...the qualitative aspects...apart from looking at the numbers the quantitative side..

Stock

2017-12-23 14:21 | Report Abuse

not sure how is the latest news going to affect the sentiment over this stock...

u just never know how the extremely emotional Mr. market going to react

Stock

2017-12-22 19:10 | Report Abuse

better run first thing next week...stay sideline and go in when the price stablises

Stock

2017-12-22 19:09 | Report Abuse

korean drama indeed....why so many mishaps happening one after another.

market confidence on this counter already low...now breach of trust...really no integrity

Stock

2017-12-22 16:42 | Report Abuse

what korean founder tangkap? care to explain..

Stock

2017-12-22 16:24 | Report Abuse

LiiHen share price has big OBSTACLES because one shareholder, KYY keeps selling! and has many more shares to sell for him to raise cash and put all in Hengyuan

News & Blogs

2017-12-22 10:20 | Report Abuse

Just becareful of one investor, KYY.

Stock

2017-12-22 10:10 | Report Abuse

From KYY - As I said in one of my articles that I would buy Hengyuan until I have exhausted all my funds. Hengyuan is a major part of my investment and I am not selling now. I want to see its full year result announcement before end of February 2018.

Read the line carefully especially the last sentence.

News & Blogs

2017-12-21 18:02 | Report Abuse

supermax is losing its position...long long time ago they were top 2 or 3...

political issue seems to be an overhang...we dont know what is happening behind the scene or if there are any (unseen) obstacles from u know who impacting their business operations...like it or not, business tend to do well if on the right side with those in charge

Stock

2017-12-21 17:50 | Report Abuse

company keeps buying back shares...what does that tells you?
how is ur assessment of the management over the years? do u think they can manage the challenges effectively? will they emerged stronger? these are the questions u intuitively should have known..

Stock

2017-12-21 17:47 | Report Abuse

price drop amid changing sentiments la...temporary or permanent decline, my bet is former...no need to crack head justifying why the share price is dropping...if u done ur work and have much conviction on ur due diligence, this is an opportunity to average down and build position size...if no more bullet, then stop looking at share price and stay away until the next quarter results to revisit ur position again...if no confidence in the company, better sell your shares then.

Stock

2017-12-21 16:33 | Report Abuse

Looking at their increasing cash pile and FCF growth, do u think we should look at ex-cash PER instead? Of 8 times.

If takes into the consideration of their net cash balances, Pohuat forward valuation = RM2.40 + 0.30 = RM2.70.

Stock

2017-12-21 16:30 | Report Abuse

Let's move to 1 year forward pricing.
Assuming revenue growth of 15% and net profit margin of 9%, EPS forecast for next FY amounts to 30sen.

Based on historical average PE of 8 times, Pohuat 1 year forward valuation = 0.30 x 8 = RM2.40.

Stock

2017-12-21 16:26 | Report Abuse

FCF increased from RM14m to RM38m, an increase of whopping 166%.

FCF/share is 18sen. 8sen paid as dividend.

Net cash increased from RM43m to RM70m. Net cash per share is 33 sen (2016: 20 sen).
Latest full year EPS amounts to 26.11sen. Based on historical average PE of 8 times, Pohuat should valued at RM2.09.

Stock

2017-12-21 16:13 | Report Abuse

Collecting Hevea more at this price.

Stock

2017-12-20 17:48 | Report Abuse

Good results.

Well done, poh huat.

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Stock

2017-12-19 11:45 | Report Abuse

or maybe sifu Raider can advise too...how to position ur potfolio for 2018?

Stock

2017-12-19 11:43 | Report Abuse

sifu plane, your outperforming pick on KESM (last yr) and Hengyuan (this year)....any hidden gem for 2018 portfolio?

Stock

2017-12-18 15:36 | Report Abuse

even kcchongnz is holding Insas

Stock

2017-12-18 15:36 | Report Abuse

that's a good idea....semi-formal grouping of long term minority shareholders of Insas

we need more shareholders activism to unlock the value!!

Stock

2017-12-16 12:17 | Report Abuse

final quarter may include special dividend

Stock

2017-12-14 12:01 | Report Abuse

shall wait and see then. hope can end the year on the high...Insas pls add oil!!!

Stock

2017-12-14 11:41 | Report Abuse

what is the good news?

Stock

2017-12-13 18:06 | Report Abuse

what is Magni's forward P/E?

what is their fair P/E?

Stock

2017-12-12 19:34 | Report Abuse

it is the mystery that even Ben Graham has no answer to...the question of WHEN

Stock

2017-12-12 19:33 | Report Abuse

insas is a perfect example that defines value investors' worst fear VALUE TRAP

Stock

2017-12-12 19:32 | Report Abuse

shareholders activism is the only way to unlock Insas value. very unfortunate to come to this measure. would have hope to see management taking actions to reward us shareholders.

Stock

2017-12-12 16:55 | Report Abuse

if war breaks out in middle east, crude oil will rise sharply and that is bad news for them

Stock

2017-12-12 16:32 | Report Abuse

please read their dividend policy carefully again

c.50% of net profit after taking into account working capital and capex requirements

Stock

2017-12-12 16:03 | Report Abuse

i think market has lost some confidence on the management due to inadequate disclosure over the impact from water disruption in addition to 2 quarters of earnings disappointment

while noted that management has indicated q4 would be better, i rather be more careful than taking their words blindly

the business is cyclical, there are so many uncertainties impacting their profitability.. management can be wrong as well

Stock

2017-12-12 10:57 | Report Abuse

sentiment over this counter is weak