dun b surprised supermax same profit with topglove eventhough topglove is few time bigger than supermax.

if u seens my calculation based on asp25-30 apr - jun calculation , u will hav a rough idea. Might not b accurate. jus a guide.

Information as of now is 25%-30% MOM for april to jun, I take 20% b conservative.
Production for OBM is increased to 95% prior to 50-70% in QTR3.
Average asp rate = 20 +40 + 60 / 3 = 40%
Assuming no increase in cost n sales
QTR 3 Revenue 447247k
QTR 4 additional profit for new ASP @20 % MOM = 447247k x0.95 X0.4 = 169953k
PAT@24% tax = 169953 x0.76 = 129164K
Total profit for QTR4 = 129164k +71056 k = 200221k
ep15.4 sen

2721..look wat management says about coming qtr result.

Higher ASPs to drive sequentially stronger 4QFY20F results

"SUCB highlighted that the majority of orders with substantial price increase (expectations of +10-15% monthly from Jun 20 onwards, post raising ASPs by 25-30% mom in Apr 20) would be captured in 4QFY6/20 onwards, as the bulk of orders with lower ASPs have been shipped out in 3QFY20. "

Hence, we expect better margins for SUCB, from higher ASPs and declining raw material prices. Also, its subsidiaries (distribution centres) in certain countries, such as UK and the US, will enjoy lower tax rates due to tax incentives.

2721..

SUCB’s manufacturing-cum-distribution model paying dividends We also attribute SUCB’s ability to raise its ASPs more aggressively vs. its peers (mainly OEM suppliers) to its manufacturing-cum-distribution model — SUCB distributes its own brand manufacturing (OBM) gloves via in-house as well as independent distributors. We gather that SUCB is able to garner higher margins and better pricing power from its OBM gloves as it is able to sell to end-customers directly. As of Mar 20 (following the Covid-19 outbreak) 95% of its sales mix is OBM gloves, much higher than the 70% in Jan 20.

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?file=93C476CB-2505-4AE8-8C1F-1F221B125E34

Supermax shift production to own OBM to 95%...meaning they hav expanded their OBM market share until they can put on their other distributor on hold. This OBM expansion is quite significant and will result in futher economy of scale. 95% own made own sell...i think very powerful. Meaning they dun need to rely on other distributor already.Dun need to hard press by distributor for price war.Meaning they can always offer the cheapest compare to other glove manufacturer.

In other words, permanently increase average margin even covid is over.

if i am fund manager i will never sell glove to go into other stock that will crash when asia stock meltdown. either they hold cash or move to defensiv stock like glove industry with super profits.

when hangseng goes down to lower low in march all will follow.

confirm super profit for next 6 qtr. all funds already ready to park fund in glove stock n abandoning other ship. even oil stock also drop when oil goes up. almost across sector show signs of selling off. i might b wrong, jus pointing out wat i saw.

by then u will b glad u still got gloves stock to go into.

hangseng drop is the ignition n will start the ball rolling.

wat i forsee is market is going to crash big time soon...n u know where the money flows. i can tell u most ppl are throwing into stock that are going to crash anyway.

probability..yes i am aware of that.that why i calculated with higher production capaccty in 2 yrs time.even covid go away. the qtr profit will not below 70 million anymore. with the normal 10% annual growth for glove demand, and a permanent shift of 25% in demand due to US 3 mths PPE stockpile and a heightened health awareness post covid. They will need another expansion of 30% even after 2 years.alto with no more super high margin. their profit will already be a normalised 70-90 million qtrly by then. If the contact lens fly by leaps n bound, u can c profit above 100 million qtrly easily. that is about 30 eps normal operation post covid. with current price is only a pe 20.

Maxam..i tot that article is kyy story.

Now the price rise in tandem with profit increase.so its properly valued. If its making 10 percent profit n rise 3 x. That is overvalued. If market crash n all ppl no where to go n rush in to buy glove n rise 30 x ...that is overvalued. Ppl already know supermax estimated profit for the next 4 qtr with such a clear indication from report notes .n they know the future pe now is actually below 20 or even 10 depending on next qtr report. Nobody will wait to buy to buy b4 qtr 4 confirmation. They will only buy now as early as possible. Everyone is talking about how much more profts here, n not about anything else. N super profits is the one driving the super rise in price n nothing else.

Information as of now is 25%-30% MOM for april to jun, I take 20% b conservative.
Production for OBM is increased to 95% prior to 50-70% in QTR3.
Average asp rate = 20 +40 + 60 / 3 = 40%
Assuming no increase in cost n sales
QTR 3 Revenue 447247k
QTR 4 additional profit for new ASP @20 % MOM = 447247k x0.95 X0.4 = 169953k
PAT@24% tax = 169953 x0.76 = 129164K
Total profit for QTR4 = 129164k +71056 k = 200221k
ep15.4 sen

i only know the order for glopves is already 1 yr. even the vaccine is out in n ready manufacture for whole world and shiped to your neighbor hood clinic in 6 mths time. the order will be already up to 2 yrs long.

N do u really think they can do that in 6 mths time n u can get a jab in your clinic already? All the vaccie company r jus fundraising for their vaccine by releasing all the news. The only reliable one is the china one becoz they r state funded with plenty of money and plenty of patient to test. if Dr Zhong say it take at least 1-2 yrs. i beleive him.

the fact is u cannot rush science.if a baby is born in 10 mths...u can choose to giv birth in 6 months of course if u want...

i think now the most conservative way of investment is not to assume a quick vaccine. if not u will stuck in your investment.

philip..yes i am limited on my knowledge and is craving for more information as well. Whether it is valuable or not is a developing event. my reasonable valuation keeps changing from 1 yr ago until covid strikes, when it develops into pandemic, the valuation keeps changing.
With more information unfolds, the market is more intelligent in keeping the correct valuation.I am jus investing ahead of market and sharing my insight on this.Since most fund invest based on past information and is slow in action. Forward earning is the way to outpaced them.I do not recommend ppl to follow me, but i am just a learner.

chief999..Thanks for link!!!

the above assumption is unique to supermax only...other glove counter i am not confident.

Thanks Chovio for a great writeup. Got more info from your article. For others, a 2 year bumper profit run is enuff to propel supermax to another level. And move supermax from a 30 million /qtr to a 70 million/qtr business even covid is over. With the next propelling move coming from its contact lens business. i am confident it will keep supermax in the 90 million profit /qtr in 3 yrs time.that is enuff to mantain its price at rm6 at pe 20.even after covid is over.

for how high supermax can run during this covid fever.

to match current topglove marketcap since they might b earning same profit for coming qtr...supermax will hav to reach rm21. or topglove price need to adjust down to supermax price. or they will meet halfway.

Targeted, there is no export data readily for free on market to others except to US. But the US export data represent 60% of total export of supermax.So if export to US gonna hit all time high from apr to jun.rest assured other place is the same.

Supermax obm network will likely be expanded and become stronger after this covid and will command a larger market share as well, bringing more profits to supermax.

The goledn era for supemax has started!!! I forsee a 2 yrs of rapid expansion and profits from covid. And follows by a contact lens business boom and ipo is possible. U will no longer c 30 million qtr anymore from today onwards. Not even 70 million qtr after 2 yrs.

Thanks targeted. I am looking forward to kim sifu article, he say will release .also no c.go raya celebration already?

If the past 10 yrs belongs to stanley thai glove, the next 10 year belong cecile thai aveo lens. 2020/2021 is the turning point of contact lens business. With rm60 billion worldwide market to be tapped. With a high margin. And a trend towrds using cheap disposable online subscription plan since covid lockdown. Lets support our own home grown contact lens manufacturer.

https://www.pressreader.com/malaysia/the-star-malaysia-starbiz/20181215/281573766789811

Thanks paktua . If i got your skill,i will also do swing. But i dumb dumb investor ,can only dumb dumb hold. Paktua swing is for demonstration purpose, viewers do not try it at home.

The chairman painted a long-term picture and asked shareholders to ignore the short-term noise when a shareholder pointed out Supermax’s share price had been going south for more than a year: ‘I assure you, my dear investors, Supermax is on an upward track. We hope not just to be second best, we will be the top glove and lens manufacturer in the world one day. That’s our commitment, our promise to shareholders.’ 

From last yr agm speech....very promising promise.

he wanna show his support for next qtr, if not for this reason. frankly, i will buy at 1.80 when sbb time if i was him. but his sbb is not really to make money, but to show all shareholder of that he is confident in company future result.

frankly speaking 40k is already 200k...200 k could hav bought him 100 k share bak in april. but he didnt.

the number of share doesnt matter...important is he is the director with insider news, n he bought after report that means he is showing confidence in next report. if he bought b4 the qtr 3, then he is showing support for qtr 3.

YTH888, i also very cautious. Hope the calculation on month on month is crrect understanding.

Did i misunderstood the meaning Month on Month , is this calculation correct. Pls enlighted.

jan 5%
feb 5= 10
mar5 =15
april 25 = 40
may 25 = 65
jun 25 = 90
july 15= 105
aug 15 = 130
sep 15= 145
oct 15 = 160
nov 15 = 175
dec 15 = 190%

by year end a increase of 170 -200% !!! Applicable to OBM only.
Based on informatio from report.

If its true than the profit is damn a lot !!!

director buy 5.++ , why he dun buy at 2++ leh ?
i think its strategic move to remind shareholder that to be confident.
n also he dun wan to buy b4 report out, only buy after report out. very cautious indeed

yes..director buying is a very good indicator..he bought at 5.++ .
sbb otw may b. i guess a 888888 share sbb in july...lol

Supermax still got 180 million inventory waiting to be unloaded when price is right...hehe...

if this is true...he he...dunno how to calculate the profit already. macam daylight robbery.

based on Month on month increase of 5 to 25 %. Hope someone can verify whether this is correct calculation.

jan 5%
feb 5= 10
mar5 =15
april 25 = 40
may 25 = 65
jun 25 = 90
july 15= 105
aug 15 = 130
sep 15= 145
oct 15 = 160
nov 15 = 175
dec 15 = 190%

by year end a increase of 170 -200% !!! Applicable to OBM only.
Based on informatio from report.

Dear OTB sifu,

U might need to revise your tp becoz more information is realeased.
95% production had been shifted to OBM sales.
Meaning now almost all gloves are sold at very high asp price. Last qtr i guess only 50-70%.
This is a very important piece of information u need to relook.
If that is the case by year end, the price will already be more than 100% increase not 30%.

Dear OTB sifu

I received the report .
You hav been quite conservative of a pe 20.
Thank you very much.

Dear OTB sifu,

I did receive that email with mtag and recommendation to buy on supermax.
But no calculation on Supermax on 7.68 tp.
I jus check no such email.

Thank you very much.

Thankyou ,cjp74132rn !!! very well written point.

Dear OTB sifu

Can you pls resend again.
Very looking forward to your guidance.
Thank you very much.

Thank you , Maxam.

Dear OTB sifu,

I didnt receive the report.
Thank you very much.

Thank you CharlesT and Probaility. Jus sharing wat my thought is, hope no bring ppl to holland. Sifu word carry too much weight, very easy bring ppl to heaven as well as hell. Hope everyone can share info n thoughts n build a healthy forum.

i will monitor the report of topglove and comfort to c their margin increase. when is their report out ?

no, i am not real sifu. i am jus cautious. obm calcualtion and oem calculation is not entirely the same. but anyway if for long term, all gloves will shine. Thank you OTB sifu for sharing your thought.

they are many over anticipation which happens to kossan n harta. it might happen to topglove and comfort and rubberex. so pls trade with caution. their asp price increase for oem does not appear so much in this qtr. supermx got so high margin is becoz of obm advantage. if oem asp increasew will not be of supermax magnitude so pls dun benchmark against supermx hoping to 2x 3 x profit.