freetospeak

freetospeak | Joined since 2017-10-16

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2020-05-14 18:30 | Report Abuse

if eps for the next 4qtr is 2.01 -0.86 = 1.16 .

eps rm1.16 now how we gonna price supermax.

pe 10 = 11.16

pe 20 = 20.32
supermax cap will be 26 billion ...malaysia got so much fund me?

Stock

2020-05-14 18:27 | Report Abuse

why supermax sbb at 1.76 - 2.48?
the average price is RM 2.01

I assume they bought at company projected NTA price.

still taking last yr qtr 3
2.64 eps
361,199k sales
34,617k profit
2019-03-31

361,199k sales x 30% more sale due to max production = 469558 x50% price increase(OBM price 100% x 50%market share) = 704338k

new Cost = 361199 - 34617= 326582 x1.20 (30% increase production - 10% cost saving ) =391898 -10% (exchangerate+ material cost n utitlity saving) = 352708k
estimate profit at 704338k - 352708k= 351629k

eps = 351 629k x 4qtr = 1406519 /1.36 b=rm1.034

New NTA for the next 4qtr = 1.034 +0.86 = rm1.89

rm1.89 vs rm2.01

that means profit is even higher than i think.

Stock

2020-05-14 15:55 | Report Abuse

yes,

the 30% increase in production/sales i assume:-
1) 75% increase to 95% =20%
2) Increase of 10% extra capacity?


Posted by freetospeak > May 14, 2020 3:35 PM | Report Abuse

my calculation does not factor in other cost saving like low oil price, low natural gas, strong usd , OBM advantage (top glove had a 100% ASP increase on own brand)etc.

Stock

2020-05-14 15:35 | Report Abuse

my calculation does not factor in other cost saving like low oil price, low natural gas, strong usd , OBM advantage (top glove had a 100% ASP increase on own brand)etc.

Stock

2020-05-14 15:34 | Report Abuse

very glad someone question my calculation so that i can improve on it. thank u.

Stock

2020-05-14 15:33 | Report Abuse

i already mention supermax profit will be minimum 100 million nabove .
5% increase price is 100 million, 10% increase is 120 millioin, 15% increase is 140 million, 20 % is 160 million.

my calculation pe 20 is rm6,pe 30 is rm9.00
every 5% increase in sales price will increase 20% profit n tp.
eg. 10% increase price = 37 sen eps pe 30= rm 11.1
20% increase price = 55.53 pe 30 =RM16.66
based on last yr qtr 3

2.64 eps
361,199k sales
34,617k profit
2019-03-31

361,199k sales x 30% more sale due to max production = 469558 x5% price increase(be conservative) = 493, 036k

new Cost = 361199 - 34617= 326582 x1.20 (30% increase production - 10% cost saving ) =391898
estimate profit at 493036 - 391898 = 101137k

Profit increase factor = 101137/34617 = 2.92x

2.92 x 2.64 = 7.71 per qtr
7.71 x 4 qtr = 30.85
pe30 =rm 9.25

Stock

2020-05-14 15:32 | Report Abuse

my calculation does not factor in other cost saving like low oil price, low natural gas, strong usd etc.

Stock

2020-05-14 15:31 | Report Abuse

i use a more prudent calculation to arrive at 100 mil if u look bak my post.

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2020-05-14 15:31 | Report Abuse

i used 330 x 1.2 (30% due to increase production - 10% cost saving very prudent) = 396 m
525.53 -396 = 129 mil

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2020-05-14 15:28 | Report Abuse

capacity is increase by about 25-30% becoz the revenue reflect a 75% usuage only.
Adding another 10% this year will be 35-40% so i take a lower 30%.

so RM385mil * 1.30 x1.05 = 525.53 - (RM330 * 1.1 )= RM162.53 mil.

Stock

2020-05-14 14:55 | Report Abuse

next wk report out..wanna get rm4 below impossible liao...want to buy buynow...

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2020-05-14 14:45 | Report Abuse

get letter of credit liao must be...

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2020-05-14 11:34 | Report Abuse

really dunno how to calculate.

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2020-05-14 11:33 | Report Abuse

jus need few billion usd u can own many glove counter. y spend billions buying gloves?...lol

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2020-05-14 11:32 | Report Abuse

trump pls come invest in our glove stock...then u can get all the glove u want...lol

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2020-05-14 11:20 | Report Abuse

3x is for this qtr...next qtr..they will say is 5x due to increase asp..so on...last month they never mention about 3x profit..but i oledi calculated can 3x based on public info of 5 % asp increase. they oledi knew long b4 us..but they silently accumula dun wan to say.

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2020-05-14 11:08 | Report Abuse

all the fake q to sell

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2020-05-14 11:03 | Report Abuse

nex wk gloves party ...hold on ...

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2020-05-14 11:02 | Report Abuse

fund are blocking to let ppl sell...they r collecting dun sell your shares.

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2020-05-14 10:41 | Report Abuse

prepare for party nex wk !!!!!

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2020-05-14 10:40 | Report Abuse

i already mention supermax profit will be minimum 100 million nabove .
5% increase price is 100 million, 10% increase is 120 millioin, 15% increase is 140 million, 20 % is 160 million.

my calculation pe 20 is rm6,pe 30 is rm9.00
every 5% increase in sales price will increase 20% profit n tp.
eg. 10% increase price = 37 sen eps pe 30= rm 11.1
20% increase price = 55.53 pe 30 =RM16.66
based on last yr qtr 3

2.64 eps
361,199k sales
34,617k profit
2019-03-31

361,199k sales x 30% more sale due to max production = 469558 x5% price increase(be conservative) = 493, 036k

new Cost = 361199 - 34617= 326582 x1.20 (30% increase production - 10% cost saving ) =391898
estimate profit at 493036 - 391898 = 101137k

Profit increase factor = 101137/34617 = 2.92x

2.92 x 2.64 = 7.71 per qtr
7.71 x 4 qtr = 30.85
pe30 =rm 9.25

Stock

2020-05-14 10:38 | Report Abuse

then my calculation is correct..100 million profit for current qtr.

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2020-05-14 09:47 | Report Abuse

We like Supermax because the stock is trading at an unjustified 40% discount to bigger peers’ average valuation compared to a historical discount of 30%. We highlight again that the 40% valuation discount to bigger cap peers appears conservative.

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2020-05-14 09:45 | Report Abuse

TP is raised from RM2.50 to RM4.50 based on 26x CY21E EPS (at +2.0SD above 5-year historical forward mean). Reiterate OP. KENANGA, Price Call : BUY, Price Target : 4.50.

PE 26x @4.50. Still undervalue..lol

Stock

2020-05-14 09:13 | Report Abuse

MoneyHeist...if i got money i will buy. But i got no money now...sob...collect in stages is best. who knows the big fund wanna dump to u n hit limit down today.

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2020-05-14 09:11 | Report Abuse

that is assuming 100% increase in obm price like topglvoe.

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2020-05-14 09:10 | Report Abuse

simple calculation,
If my glove is rm1, cost is 90sen...now i can sell at 1.50 profit = 60sen...profit from 10 sen to 60 sen is quals to 600%= normal profit for supermax is about 35million per qtr = now is 210 million per qtr. x1.30 for additional volume = 270 million per qtr. x4 = 1.08 billion profit per yr

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2020-05-14 09:03 | Report Abuse

rm3.90 is really undervalued supermax...lol

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2020-05-14 08:52 | Report Abuse

thats why it is unbelievable...until the report out. i still dun beleive topglvoe can increase 100% in own brand price.

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2020-05-14 08:51 | Report Abuse

thats 250million per qtr profit...thats crazy.

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2020-05-14 08:49 | Report Abuse

if really increase 50% in ASP is equal to eps rm1.00!!!

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2020-05-14 08:49 | Report Abuse

if based on topglove 100% increase inown brand price..supermax with 50% obm sales ..is equal to 50% increase in asp. 50% increase is a lot!!!

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2020-05-14 08:46 | Report Abuse

it is possible...a 1997 like bull run for klse will make that happen.

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2020-05-14 08:45 | Report Abuse

with 500 -600 million profit per year a tp 4 is unreasonable.

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2020-05-14 08:43 | Report Abuse

with 500 -600 million profit per year a tp12 is reasonable.

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2020-05-14 08:42 | Report Abuse

tp 12 by year end. stock split @7 into 3.50 then rise to 5-6 inanticipating another bumper qtr 4. by then rm5-6 is actually equals to tp12 from now.

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2020-05-14 08:37 | Report Abuse

with the current rm500-600 million record profit for this yr ...normalised price is rm3.50 for next 5 yrs.

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2020-05-14 08:36 | Report Abuse

that is calculation based on rm500 million profit per yr @ 125 million per qtr..if profit is more than rm500 million different story.

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2020-05-14 08:34 | Report Abuse

my calculation is spilt stock at rm7 into rm3.50 at qtr 3 ..rise up to rm5-6 at qtr4 to reflect my tp12.00.when covid dies down drop to rm3.50 n stable.

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2020-05-14 08:32 | Report Abuse

top glove dare dare to increase 100% price for own inhouse brand...if supermax also increase 100% price for own obm product which accounts for 50% sales...cannot imagine wat is the profit like.

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2020-05-14 07:31 | Report Abuse

There is little covid related stock at such low pe already.

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2020-05-14 07:29 | Report Abuse

When all glove related stock rally next wk ...then panic buy again. Want to buy ,better buy now.yesterday is a acid test b4 huge surge.

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2020-05-13 22:21 | Report Abuse

OTB sifu...pls take care..too much scolding no good for health. safety first.

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2020-05-13 22:18 | Report Abuse

meaning more profits?

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2020-05-13 22:13 | Report Abuse

bonus issue n dividend share also not declare n given ...dunno so hurry sell for wat.

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2020-05-13 22:09 | Report Abuse

n dun forget supermax got a 190 million inventories in stock for this qtr to sell.

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2020-05-13 22:07 | Report Abuse

of course i dun expect to happen in this qtr , may b next qtr full effect shows. but this qtr a 5-10% is very posible n a 100 million proit shld b reasonsable.

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2020-05-13 22:05 | Report Abuse

if they really increase asp by 30% then 600 million per year is very possible according to my calculation. 1 yr equals 5 yr earning....never happen b4 in bursa glove history...ppl need to adapt to new norm...lol