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Stock
2015-02-05 13:19 | Report Abuse
from www.facebook.com/myinvestcoach :
Do you know the First Page of KLSE Stocks are consist of Penny Stocks/Small Caps?
You may also read at: humblepie188.blogspot.com
Do you notice in KLSE first trading page all are PENNY STOCKS/SMALL CAPS and the most expensive share is worth 60 cents? Basically we do not wish to spoil your trading party, just to highlight what are you buying/trading in KLSE.
Do you know Fund Managers normally do not buy Penny Stocks? Reason being is their earnings is too volatile and difficult to forecast. Prices normally shoot beyond their Fair Value. Generally in their Investment Mandate, there is a clause of no Penny Stocks involved. So who are people who trades Penny Stocks?
Yes: RETAILERS
When the market slows down/correction, the worst hit is Penny Stocks and who gets burned the most? Yes, RETAILERS.
As much as we like to encourage stocks trading, but please do look at your trading portfolio.
Perhaps it maybe a good idea for you to strategize/plan properly for a CHALLENGING 2015.
There is a reason for putting the word RISK in front of REWARD:
Look at the risk first before talking about reward.
''RISK and REWARD"
Asia Bio
Latest 3 years in RED
Dnex
Latest 2 years in RED
Dufu
Latest 3 years in RED
Etitech
Latest 2 years in RED
Hovid
Latest 3 years in GREED
Iris
Latest 5 years in GREEN
KNM
Latest 2 years in GREEN
PENTA
3 out of 5 years in RED
TAKASO
Latest 5 years in RED
TMS
Latest 5 years in RED
Stock
2015-02-05 13:19 | Report Abuse
from www.facebook.com/myinvestcoach :
Do you know the First Page of KLSE Stocks are consist of Penny Stocks/Small Caps?
You may also read at: humblepie188.blogspot.com
Do you notice in KLSE first trading page all are PENNY STOCKS/SMALL CAPS and the most expensive share is worth 60 cents? Basically we do not wish to spoil your trading party, just to highlight what are you buying/trading in KLSE.
Do you know Fund Managers normally do not buy Penny Stocks? Reason being is their earnings is too volatile and difficult to forecast. Prices normally shoot beyond their Fair Value. Generally in their Investment Mandate, there is a clause of no Penny Stocks involved. So who are people who trades Penny Stocks?
Yes: RETAILERS
When the market slows down/correction, the worst hit is Penny Stocks and who gets burned the most? Yes, RETAILERS.
As much as we like to encourage stocks trading, but please do look at your trading portfolio.
Perhaps it maybe a good idea for you to strategize/plan properly for a CHALLENGING 2015.
There is a reason for putting the word RISK in front of REWARD:
Look at the risk first before talking about reward.
''RISK and REWARD"
Asia Bio
Latest 3 years in RED
Dnex
Latest 2 years in RED
Dufu
Latest 3 years in RED
Etitech
Latest 2 years in RED
Hovid
Latest 3 years in GREED
Iris
Latest 5 years in GREEN
KNM
Latest 2 years in GREEN
PENTA
3 out of 5 years in RED
TAKASO
Latest 5 years in RED
TMS
Latest 5 years in RED
Stock
2015-02-05 13:18 | Report Abuse
from www.facebook.com/myinvestcoach :
Do you know the First Page of KLSE Stocks are consist of Penny Stocks/Small Caps?
You may also read at: humblepie188.blogspot.com
Do you notice in KLSE first trading page all are PENNY STOCKS/SMALL CAPS and the most expensive share is worth 60 cents? Basically we do not wish to spoil your trading party, just to highlight what are you buying/trading in KLSE.
Do you know Fund Managers normally do not buy Penny Stocks? Reason being is their earnings is too volatile and difficult to forecast. Prices normally shoot beyond their Fair Value. Generally in their Investment Mandate, there is a clause of no Penny Stocks involved. So who are people who trades Penny Stocks?
Yes: RETAILERS
When the market slows down/correction, the worst hit is Penny Stocks and who gets burned the most? Yes, RETAILERS.
As much as we like to encourage stocks trading, but please do look at your trading portfolio.
Perhaps it maybe a good idea for you to strategize/plan properly for a CHALLENGING 2015.
There is a reason for putting the word RISK in front of REWARD:
Look at the risk first before talking about reward.
''RISK and REWARD"
Asia Bio
Latest 3 years in RED
Dnex
Latest 2 years in RED
Dufu
Latest 3 years in RED
Etitech
Latest 2 years in RED
Hovid
Latest 3 years in GREED
Iris
Latest 5 years in GREEN
KNM
Latest 2 years in GREEN
PENTA
3 out of 5 years in RED
TAKASO
Latest 5 years in RED
TMS
Latest 5 years in RED
Stock
2015-02-05 13:02 | Report Abuse
from humblepie188.blogspot.com :
Monday, 2 February 2015
Prudent Management in Price Speculation - Jobstreet
Received a question on Jobstreet. It is in the KLSE Trading Platform First Page and as well as a penny stock (after ex-dividend 10/12/2014). After the 1st day closing post ex dividend @ 29 cents, it has been GORENG up till 0.48 @ 30/1/2015. Generally Jobstreet is a good company with great management team.
After that much GORENG ACTIVITIES, announcement came out on 5 to 1 consolidation. Look at how the management announce it:
1st : Proactive Capital Management
2nd: Institutional Investors tend to consider penny shares as too volatile.
3rd: Higher share price will result in a reduction of speculative activities.
In a nutshell, management would not like to see their company acts like a CASINO for trading basis. Jobstreet is a company without business, only assets worth NTA 0.37. Again, who are the people GORENG this counters from 0.29 till 0.48? Once the management step in to control the speculation, what do you think of the share price on Jobstreet?
BTW, who again trading the shares and holding shares @ 0.48?
Note: A company gets listed is due to their underlying business. Money you paid during IPO/accumulate post IPO is buying a fraction of the business at AN AGREED MARKET PRICE.
When you start to trade Penny Stocks without looking at their Financial Health Report, that is where you open up all the risks to yourself.
Stock
2014-11-17 14:18 | Report Abuse
Conclusion:
THHeavy drops so much, Lembaga Tabung Haji owns 30% have not come out to support their shares By looking at the company's value, do you want to start the ball rolling?
UMWOG is tightly gripped by UMW with 55%. The trading pattern is a bit difficult to read. Plus the stock is pricey with forward PE 29. I will give it a pass.
Dayang is acceptable but more expensive than SKPetro. Difficult to gauge what KWAP is doing. If you like the stock, buy at dip.
SKPETRO: This one worth a good drink from you. Do you see EPF patterns? EPF and ASB has been a net buyer for the past 2 weeks.
When the price dipped at 7/11/2014, that is where EPF go all out to collect a whoppy 4.5m shares closed at 3.08. In Bolehland, this INVISIBLE HAND does comes in handy.
On 11/11, Humble Pie made his first buy @ 3.08. True enough 10/11 and 11/11 EPF has been nett buyer again supporting the price to close at 3.09. Regardless of EPF purely want to support the price (not to break below 3) or seeing the value in SKPETRO, EPF has been working hard on SKPETRO shares price.
Can you read EPF pattern much easier than the other 3 stocks? Now you know why I go in @ 3.08, 2 days after it touched 3.08 lowest?
BTW, both of us do not have Crystal Ball, but do you want to
guess on 12/11, 13/11 and 14/11 why the price of OIL DIPS FROM 80++ to 70++ but SKPETRO CLOSED GREEN? We may wait for a few days for the filing with Bursa to gauge your guessing. But my sixth sense telling me, my answer is the same with you.
Stock
2014-11-17 14:18 | Report Abuse
fr www.facebook.com/myinvestcoach :
THHEAVY, UMWOG, DAYANG, SKPETRO? Which one to BUY?
^-^, Alex, you should buy us a drink after this.
SKPETRO DAYANG UMWOG THHEAVY
PE 16.4 15.5 26.7 56
Forward PE 9.8 12.9 29.2 0
P/BV 1.74 3.28 2.46 1.21
Dividend 0.75% 2.5% 0 0
Current Ratio 1.15 1.44 3.26 1.36
Quick Ratio 1.15 1.43 3.1 1.33
D/E Ratio 1.61 0.48 0.37 1.2
Market Cap 18.5b 2.5b 6.96b 0.5b
Do not rely so much on historical P/E as it is just a guidance. Put more emphasis on Forward P/E as it should reflect the current full year result. Among the four stocks, SKPetro fair the best. P/BV for SKPETRO also selling at the cheapest. Current Ratio and Quick Ratio should not be a big issue for SKPETRO, DAYANG and UMWOG. The one that likely has a problem is THHEAVY. Out of 5 calender years, 2 in RED. with the Forward PE is Negative! (expecting a bad 2014 full year result).
When evaluating this 4 stocks at one go, you should take THHeavy out to have a more meaningful study. SKPETRO, DAYANG and UMWOG are belong to the big cap boys (command higher Forward PE. Average should be 15+- while THHeavy is a mid cap boy, looking at 10 to 13 forward PE. Keep in mind, the chairman's statement / CEO or MD's speech plays a very important role on determining the future flow of the company:
Be alert on the wordings like:
We see tough times ahead.
We are expecting a challenging time
Performance is not up to the expectation etc etc.
They are telling you what will happen to the company for the current calender year. Able to deliver or likely not to deliver.
At the point of writing, OIL PRICE IS STILL DROPPING. If you insist to put THHeavy as one of your consideration, let's see more details that I am sharing with you:
(The info is extracted from their filing with Bursa)
THHeavy
Supporting share price : NIL Tabung Haji owns 30.06%
UMWOG
Acquired Disposed Closed
27/10/2014 539100 ASB 3.41
27/10/2014 (1000000) EPF
28/10/2014 1500000 ASB 3.26
29/10/2014 800000 ASB 3.28
*14/11/2014 3.08
Note: ASB is Amanah Saham Bumiputera
EPF: Employees Provided Fund
Dayang
Acquired Disposed Close
20/10/2014 (409400) KWAP 2.92
21/10/2014 (84000) KWAP 2.89
23/10/2014 142300 (13410) KWAP 2.95
31/10/2014 (45500) KWAP 2.94
3/11/2014 (14600) KWAP 2.94
4/11/2014 515000 (603500) KWAP 2.85
5/11/2014 500000 (662550) KWAP 2.8
6/11/2014 1500000 (98200) KWAP 2.84
14/11/2014 2.8
Total : 2657300 (2051850)
Note: KWAP is Kumpulan Wang Persaraan
SKPetro
Acquired Disposed Closed
3/11/2014 4000500 (848300) EPF 3.39
4/11/2014 1500000 ASB 3.27
4/11/2014 6803100 EPF
5/11/2014 75000 ASB 3.14
5/11/2014 350000 (3060200) EPF
6/11/2014 1430000 (2536700) EPF 3.14
6/11/2014 750000 ASB
7/11/2014 4532500 EPF 3.08
10/11/2014 1655700 EPF 3.14
11/11/2014 7001000 EPF 3.09 HUMBLE PIE Buy@3.08
12/11/2014 ? 3.09
13/11/2014 ? 3.10
14/11/2014 ? 3.12
Total 28772800 (6445200)
Stock
2014-11-17 14:17 | Report Abuse
Conclusion:
THHeavy drops so much, Lembaga Tabung Haji owns 30% have not come out to support their shares By looking at the company's value, do you want to start the ball rolling?
UMWOG is tightly gripped by UMW with 55%. The trading pattern is a bit difficult to read. Plus the stock is pricey with forward PE 29. I will give it a pass.
Dayang is acceptable but more expensive than SKPetro. Difficult to gauge what KWAP is doing. If you like the stock, buy at dip.
SKPETRO: This one worth a good drink from you. Do you see EPF patterns? EPF and ASB has been a net buyer for the past 2 weeks.
When the price dipped at 7/11/2014, that is where EPF go all out to collect a whoppy 4.5m shares closed at 3.08. In Bolehland, this INVISIBLE HAND does comes in handy.
On 11/11, Humble Pie made his first buy @ 3.08. True enough 10/11 and 11/11 EPF has been nett buyer again supporting the price to close at 3.09. Regardless of EPF purely want to support the price (not to break below 3) or seeing the value in SKPETRO, EPF has been working hard on SKPETRO shares price.
Can you read EPF pattern much easier than the other 3 stocks? Now you know why I go in @ 3.08, 2 days after it touched 3.08 lowest?
BTW, both of us do not have Crystal Ball, but do you want to
guess on 12/11, 13/11 and 14/11 why the price of OIL DIPS FROM 80++ to 70++ but SKPETRO CLOSED GREEN? We may wait for a few days for the filing with Bursa to gauge your guessing. But my sixth sense telling me, my answer is the same with you.
Stock
2014-11-17 14:16 | Report Abuse
fr www.facebook.com/myinvestcoach :
THHEAVY, UMWOG, DAYANG, SKPETRO? Which one to BUY?
^-^, Alex, you should buy us a drink after this.
SKPETRO DAYANG UMWOG THHEAVY
PE 16.4 15.5 26.7 56
Forward PE 9.8 12.9 29.2 0
P/BV 1.74 3.28 2.46 1.21
Dividend 0.75% 2.5% 0 0
Current Ratio 1.15 1.44 3.26 1.36
Quick Ratio 1.15 1.43 3.1 1.33
D/E Ratio 1.61 0.48 0.37 1.2
Market Cap 18.5b 2.5b 6.96b 0.5b
Do not rely so much on historical P/E as it is just a guidance. Put more emphasis on Forward P/E as it should reflect the current full year result. Among the four stocks, SKPetro fair the best. P/BV for SKPETRO also selling at the cheapest. Current Ratio and Quick Ratio should not be a big issue for SKPETRO, DAYANG and UMWOG. The one that likely has a problem is THHEAVY. Out of 5 calender years, 2 in RED. with the Forward PE is Negative! (expecting a bad 2014 full year result).
When evaluating this 4 stocks at one go, you should take THHeavy out to have a more meaningful study. SKPETRO, DAYANG and UMWOG are belong to the big cap boys (command higher Forward PE. Average should be 15+- while THHeavy is a mid cap boy, looking at 10 to 13 forward PE. Keep in mind, the chairman's statement / CEO or MD's speech plays a very important role on determining the future flow of the company:
Be alert on the wordings like:
We see tough times ahead.
We are expecting a challenging time
Performance is not up to the expectation etc etc.
They are telling you what will happen to the company for the current calender year. Able to deliver or likely not to deliver.
At the point of writing, OIL PRICE IS STILL DROPPING. If you insist to put THHeavy as one of your consideration, let's see more details that I am sharing with you:
(The info is extracted from their filing with Bursa)
THHeavy
Supporting share price : NIL Tabung Haji owns 30.06%
UMWOG
Acquired Disposed Closed
27/10/2014 539100 ASB 3.41
27/10/2014 (1000000) EPF
28/10/2014 1500000 ASB 3.26
29/10/2014 800000 ASB 3.28
*14/11/2014 3.08
Note: ASB is Amanah Saham Bumiputera
EPF: Employees Provided Fund
Dayang
Acquired Disposed Close
20/10/2014 (409400) KWAP 2.92
21/10/2014 (84000) KWAP 2.89
23/10/2014 142300 (13410) KWAP 2.95
31/10/2014 (45500) KWAP 2.94
3/11/2014 (14600) KWAP 2.94
4/11/2014 515000 (603500) KWAP 2.85
5/11/2014 500000 (662550) KWAP 2.8
6/11/2014 1500000 (98200) KWAP 2.84
14/11/2014 2.8
Total : 2657300 (2051850)
Note: KWAP is Kumpulan Wang Persaraan
SKPetro
Acquired Disposed Closed
3/11/2014 4000500 (848300) EPF 3.39
4/11/2014 1500000 ASB 3.27
4/11/2014 6803100 EPF
5/11/2014 75000 ASB 3.14
5/11/2014 350000 (3060200) EPF
6/11/2014 1430000 (2536700) EPF 3.14
6/11/2014 750000 ASB
7/11/2014 4532500 EPF 3.08
10/11/2014 1655700 EPF 3.14
11/11/2014 7001000 EPF 3.09 HUMBLE PIE Buy@3.08
12/11/2014 ? 3.09
13/11/2014 ? 3.10
14/11/2014 ? 3.12
Total 28772800 (6445200)
Stock
2014-11-17 14:16 | Report Abuse
Conclusion:
THHeavy drops so much, Lembaga Tabung Haji owns 30% have not come out to support their shares By looking at the company's value, do you want to start the ball rolling?
UMWOG is tightly gripped by UMW with 55%. The trading pattern is a bit difficult to read. Plus the stock is pricey with forward PE 29. I will give it a pass.
Dayang is acceptable but more expensive than SKPetro. Difficult to gauge what KWAP is doing. If you like the stock, buy at dip.
SKPETRO: This one worth a good drink from you. Do you see EPF patterns? EPF and ASB has been a net buyer for the past 2 weeks.
When the price dipped at 7/11/2014, that is where EPF go all out to collect a whoppy 4.5m shares closed at 3.08. In Bolehland, this INVISIBLE HAND does comes in handy.
On 11/11, Humble Pie made his first buy @ 3.08. True enough 10/11 and 11/11 EPF has been nett buyer again supporting the price to close at 3.09. Regardless of EPF purely want to support the price (not to break below 3) or seeing the value in SKPETRO, EPF has been working hard on SKPETRO shares price.
Can you read EPF pattern much easier than the other 3 stocks? Now you know why I go in @ 3.08, 2 days after it touched 3.08 lowest?
BTW, both of us do not have Crystal Ball, but do you want to
guess on 12/11, 13/11 and 14/11 why the price of OIL DIPS FROM 80++ to 70++ but SKPETRO CLOSED GREEN? We may wait for a few days for the filing with Bursa to gauge your guessing. But my sixth sense telling me, my answer is the same with you.
Stock
2014-11-17 14:16 | Report Abuse
fr www.facebook.com/myinvestcoach :
THHEAVY, UMWOG, DAYANG, SKPETRO? Which one to BUY?
^-^, Alex, you should buy us a drink after this.
SKPETRO DAYANG UMWOG THHEAVY
PE 16.4 15.5 26.7 56
Forward PE 9.8 12.9 29.2 0
P/BV 1.74 3.28 2.46 1.21
Dividend 0.75% 2.5% 0 0
Current Ratio 1.15 1.44 3.26 1.36
Quick Ratio 1.15 1.43 3.1 1.33
D/E Ratio 1.61 0.48 0.37 1.2
Market Cap 18.5b 2.5b 6.96b 0.5b
Do not rely so much on historical P/E as it is just a guidance. Put more emphasis on Forward P/E as it should reflect the current full year result. Among the four stocks, SKPetro fair the best. P/BV for SKPETRO also selling at the cheapest. Current Ratio and Quick Ratio should not be a big issue for SKPETRO, DAYANG and UMWOG. The one that likely has a problem is THHEAVY. Out of 5 calender years, 2 in RED. with the Forward PE is Negative! (expecting a bad 2014 full year result).
When evaluating this 4 stocks at one go, you should take THHeavy out to have a more meaningful study. SKPETRO, DAYANG and UMWOG are belong to the big cap boys (command higher Forward PE. Average should be 15+- while THHeavy is a mid cap boy, looking at 10 to 13 forward PE. Keep in mind, the chairman's statement / CEO or MD's speech plays a very important role on determining the future flow of the company:
Be alert on the wordings like:
We see tough times ahead.
We are expecting a challenging time
Performance is not up to the expectation etc etc.
They are telling you what will happen to the company for the current calender year. Able to deliver or likely not to deliver.
At the point of writing, OIL PRICE IS STILL DROPPING. If you insist to put THHeavy as one of your consideration, let's see more details that I am sharing with you:
(The info is extracted from their filing with Bursa)
THHeavy
Supporting share price : NIL Tabung Haji owns 30.06%
UMWOG
Acquired Disposed Closed
27/10/2014 539100 ASB 3.41
27/10/2014 (1000000) EPF
28/10/2014 1500000 ASB 3.26
29/10/2014 800000 ASB 3.28
*14/11/2014 3.08
Note: ASB is Amanah Saham Bumiputera
EPF: Employees Provided Fund
Dayang
Acquired Disposed Close
20/10/2014 (409400) KWAP 2.92
21/10/2014 (84000) KWAP 2.89
23/10/2014 142300 (13410) KWAP 2.95
31/10/2014 (45500) KWAP 2.94
3/11/2014 (14600) KWAP 2.94
4/11/2014 515000 (603500) KWAP 2.85
5/11/2014 500000 (662550) KWAP 2.8
6/11/2014 1500000 (98200) KWAP 2.84
14/11/2014 2.8
Total : 2657300 (2051850)
Note: KWAP is Kumpulan Wang Persaraan
SKPetro
Acquired Disposed Closed
3/11/2014 4000500 (848300) EPF 3.39
4/11/2014 1500000 ASB 3.27
4/11/2014 6803100 EPF
5/11/2014 75000 ASB 3.14
5/11/2014 350000 (3060200) EPF
6/11/2014 1430000 (2536700) EPF 3.14
6/11/2014 750000 ASB
7/11/2014 4532500 EPF 3.08
10/11/2014 1655700 EPF 3.14
11/11/2014 7001000 EPF 3.09 HUMBLE PIE Buy@3.08
12/11/2014 ? 3.09
13/11/2014 ? 3.10
14/11/2014 ? 3.12
Total 28772800 (6445200)
Stock
2014-11-16 11:59 | Report Abuse
Total 28772800 (6445200)
Conclusion:
THHeavy drops so much, Lembaga Tabung Haji owns 30% have not come out to support their shares By looking at the company's value, do you want to start the ball rolling?
UMWOG is tightly gripped by UMW with 55%. The trading pattern is a bit difficult to read. Plus the stock is pricey with forward PE 29. I will give it a pass.
Dayang is acceptable but more expensive than SKPetro. Difficult to gauge what KWAP is doing. If you like the stock, buy at dip.
SKPETRO: This one worth a good drink from you. Do you see EPF patterns? EPF and ASB has been a net buyer for the past 2 weeks.
When the price dipped at 7/11/2014, that is where EPF go all out to collect a whoppy 4.5m shares closed at 3.08. In Bolehland, this INVISIBLE HAND does comes in handy.
On 11/11, Humble Pie made his first buy @ 3.08. True enough 10/11 and 11/11 EPF has been nett buyer again supporting the price to close at 3.09. Regardless of EPF purely want to support the price (not to break below 3) or seeing the value in SKPETRO, EPF has been working hard on SKPETRO shares price.
Can you read EPF pattern much easier than the other 3 stocks? Now you know why I go in @ 3.08, 2 days after it touched 3.08 lowest?
BTW, both of us do not have Crystal Ball, but do you want to
guess on 12/11, 13/11 and 14/11 why the price of OIL DIPS FROM 80++ to 70++ but SKPETRO CLOSED GREEN? We may wait for a few days for the filing with Bursa to gauge your guessing. But my sixth sense telling me, my answer is the same with you.
Disclaimer and Declaration
The full content of the article is for educational purposes only and should not be used as investment recommendations. We are not responsible for all investment activities conducted by the participants and cannot be held liable for any investment loss. Examples of specific shares may be citied for illustration purposes.
Regards,
Humble Pie,
Invest Coach
Stock
2014-11-16 11:58 | Report Abuse
Fr www.facebook.com/myinvestcoach :
THHEAVY, UMWOG, DAYANG, SKPETRO? Which one to BUY?
^-^, Alex, you should buy us a drink after this.
SKPETRO DAYANG UMWOG THHEAVY
PE 16.4 15.5 26.7 56
Forward PE 9.8 12.9 29.2 0
P/BV 1.74 3.28 2.46 1.21
Dividend 0.75% 2.5% 0 0
Current Ratio 1.15 1.44 3.26 1.36
Quick Ratio 1.15 1.43 3.1 1.33
D/E Ratio 1.61 0.48 0.37 1.2
Market Cap 18.5b 2.5b 6.96b 0.5b
Do not rely so much on historical P/E as it is just a guidance. Put more emphasis on Forward P/E as it should reflect the current full year result. Among the four stocks, SKPetro fair the best. P/BV for SKPETRO also selling at the cheapest. Current Ratio and Quick Ratio should not be a big issue for SKPETRO, DAYANG and UMWOG. The one that likely has a problem is THHEAVY. Out of 5 calender years, 2 in RED. with the Forward PE is Negative! (expecting a bad 2014 full year result).
When evaluating this 4 stocks at one go, you should take THHeavy out to have a more meaningful study. SKPETRO, DAYANG and UMWOG are belong to the big cap boys (command higher Forward PE. Average should be 15+- while THHeavy is a mid cap boy, looking at 10 to 13 forward PE. Keep in mind, the chairman's statement / CEO or MD's speech plays a very important role on determining the future flow of the company:
Be alert on the wordings like:
We see tough times ahead.
We are expecting a challenging time
Performance is not up to the expectation etc etc.
They are telling you what will happen to the company for the current calender year. Able to deliver or likely not to deliver.
At the point of writing, OIL PRICE IS STILL DROPPING. If you insist to put THHeavy as one of your consideration, let's see more details that I am sharing with you:
(The info is extracted from their filing with Bursa)
THHeavy
Supporting share price : NIL Tabung Haji owns 30.06%
UMWOG
Acquired Disposed Closed
27/10/2014 539100 ASB 3.41
27/10/2014 (1000000) EPF
28/10/2014 1500000 ASB 3.26
29/10/2014 800000 ASB 3.28
*14/11/2014 3.08
Note: ASB is Amanah Saham Bumiputera
EPF: Employees Provided Fund
Dayang
Acquired Disposed Close
20/10/2014 (409400) KWAP 2.92
21/10/2014 (84000) KWAP 2.89
23/10/2014 142300 (13410) KWAP 2.95
31/10/2014 (45500) KWAP 2.94
3/11/2014 (14600) KWAP 2.94
4/11/2014 515000 (603500) KWAP 2.85
5/11/2014 500000 (662550) KWAP 2.8
6/11/2014 1500000 (98200) KWAP 2.84
14/11/2014 2.8
Total : 2657300 (2051850)
Note: KWAP is Kumpulan Wang Persaraan
SKPetro
Acquired Disposed Closed
3/11/2014 4000500 (848300) EPF 3.39
4/11/2014 1500000 ASB 3.27
4/11/2014 6803100 EPF
5/11/2014 75000 ASB 3.14
5/11/2014 350000 (3060200) EPF
6/11/2014 1430000 (2536700) EPF 3.14
6/11/2014 750000 ASB
7/11/2014 4532500 EPF 3.08
10/11/2014 1655700 EPF 3.14
11/11/2014 7001000 EPF 3.09 HUMBLE PIE Buy@3.08
12/11/2014 ? 3.09
13/11/2014 ? 3.10
14/11/2014
Stock
2014-11-12 23:58 | Report Abuse
Fr Www.facebook.com/myinvestcoach :
SKPETRO: How likely it will drop to 2.87, 2.55, 2.23, and 1.91?
Today I received this question from 1 of our group members. ^-^.
Back to my key points as below:
1. Keep in view:
Monitor the OIL PRICE – price will stabilize at one point of time. You may see the price trading few dollars in range with no further drops and good news starts being reported. From there only starts to deploy your funds in if your bullets is not much.
As at the time of writing, oil price keeps sliding with no sign of recovering. OPEC has made it clear they are not going to reduce the production for the next meeting. Simple macroeconomics:
Supply > Demand – Price will not crash but will be weaken further. Back to 2008 when market crashed, oil price was trading around USD 40++. Fast forward to 2014, factored in the inflation, it should be USD50 ++ if the market crashed. If the market not crashing, it should be above USD60++ and above at least. For the market to crash, generally you need to see a BIG BLACK SWAN swimming over.
1997 – Asian Financial Crisis – Currency collapsed, 1 by 1 the countries lost control of their
currencies.
2001 – Dotcom bubble – 1 by 1 Big Dot Com companies went bust.
2008 – Global Financial Crisis/Subprime crises – 1 by 1 big financial institutions went bust.
2014 – Banks are here, currencies is dropping but still okay, no big bankruptcies recorded.
Financial Report Card so far still acceptable, with the BIG BLACK SWAN not yet sighted.
The reason why we put the numbers; 2.87, 2.55, 2.23, and 1.91 is because we are downward
bias to the oil price and the Non-Syariah Compliant issue. As I do not
know where is the bottom, I’ll break my entry price into 5 pieces.
Assuming:
Price touches 2.87: I can deploy additional 20% of my funds in. If price stabilizes and reverse up,
I have balance 60% to average up. Perhaps to deploy another 20% again at 2.90 and to deploy
another 20% at 3.
(Refer to my first posting on SK Petro- If SK Petro is not being designated
as Non Syariah Compliant and OIL Price recovers, I can always do average up and do my ‘Portfolio
Restructuring’.
Price touches 2.55: 60% funds in and if price stabilizes and reverse up, I have 40% to average up.
Price touches 2.23: 80% funds in and if price stabilized, I have 20% to average up.
Price touches 1.91: 100% went in with my cost dollar averaging @ 2++, I can still sleep well.
I believe the Institutional Fund Managers are more likely not able to sleep.
The issue is not the price can touches 1.91, the issue is if you ALL IN maybe 50% at 3 and balance 50% at 2.90. All your funds are locked, if this OIL ISSUE prolong/further dropped, you are out of the game. No more average down and no more bullets. If the BLACK SWAN comes at 2015, what is your plan B? No more cash. Cut loss or borrow money to buy more? GAMEOVER. But if the oil starts recover without the Black Swan, I can always average up again. If you’re trading right, price touches lowest let’s say around 2.90 +-, stabilizes then bounces up, your money will goes up fast, but who says I can’t average up at 3 or 3.10 while the Target Price (TP) is 6 given by Research House? You have forgotten I am keeping 60% balance cash on hand? Value Investing is about mid and long term – It makes no difference if your entry price is 2.90 and my ‘new average up price of 3’ given the TP of 6.
P/S: If price recovers, as mentioned I shall do my own ‘Portfolio Restructuring’. Then you may see I post new entry price base on higher prices. After all, value investing is part of PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT.
By the way, our sharing class on this Saturday is FULL HOUSE. Due to much support from our community members, hereby we are announcing the registration is OFFICIALLY CLOSED.
A little highlights on this Saturday education sharing for the members who are coming:
Know what financial statements are and how to read them.
- Extracting valuable info from Balance Sheet, Income Statement and Cash Flow statement
- Ways to determine a company in high growth
How to make quantitative assessments with information from Financial Statement.
- Calculating the 6 Financial Ratios most commonly used by Fund Managers (please bring your own calculator and pen – worksheet will be given)
Understand the companies’ story and make a sensible assessment.
- Spotting the ‘red flags’/financial distress in a company before it goes bust.
- Case study on 3 companies – The Good, The Bad, The Average but Overpriced
(test them with 6 financial ratios which you shall learn in the tutorial)
By the way, American Breakfast with complimentary tea/coffee is provided. See you guys on this Saturday!
Stock
2014-11-11 15:20 | Report Abuse
sharing fr www.facebook.com/myinvestcoach
QL VS LAYHONG:
Was browsing news and came to this article:
^-^ , not suprising QL came out and advise shareholders to sell to them.
As QL ownership of Layhong hits 38%:
QL has noticed the acceptance/surrendering of Layhong shares to them is not likely to be good/drying up.
Advising 'shareholders' not yet surrendering Layhong shares to sell at open market, due to the reason if the MGO fails, the price most likely will drop.
QL needs 50% plus 1 share in order for this deal to go through.
What can QL do if not by: Telling you to sell to them and if you don't and and the MGO fails, all minority sharesholders lose except for those selling at open markat @ 3.45.
As a minority, must look at their point of view. Under the 'MALAYSIAN CODE ON TAKE-OVERS AND MERGERS', an Offeror (QL) is not allowed to buy from open market with the PRICE HIGHER THAN THE OFFER PRICE (if they are buying higher from open market, QL has to revise the price - which QL not intended to). The max QL can sapu the shares from open market is 3.45. Price has been stagnant for quite awhile and QL know the seller is drying up.
If QL do not come out to tell you what will happen if MGO fails, some investors still will think they will get 3.50 apiece (already surrendered).
To sell or not, your call. QL has done their part to inform you.
Disclaimer and Declaration
The full content of the article is for educational purposes only and should not be used as investment recommendations. We are not responsible for all investment activities conducted by the participants and cannot be held liable for any investment loss. Examples of specific shares may be citied for
illustration purposes.
Regards,
Humble Pie,
Invest Coach
Stock
2014-11-11 14:10 | Report Abuse
Sharing from www.facebook.com/myinvestcoach
SK Petro @ 3.08!
This morning I was having a morning coffee chat session with a Senior Management staff of an upcoming IPO company (might or might not be listed). One of the topics we talked about is the Oil Price and surely SKPETRO, our retailers’ hot stock.
As per our posting on 7/11, first entry price was 3.08 (yes it touched and 3.08 hit the seller price). Conclusion: 1st 20% deployed @ 3.08.
Yesterday I heard rumors out there/minority investors like us saying price of Oil is rock bottom and rebounding due to reason A, reason B and reason C. Providing all the studies and news stated why is has bottomed. KLSE Composite Index as at 11/11 is about PE 17++. With PE 17, market is not cheap; in fact we have one of the highest PE in SEA. One of the reasons our ‘Virtual Tracking Portfolio’ has not been buying/accumulating shares around 1 month (stopped at 30% shares / 70% cash). Market is choppy and our crystal ball is not working to tell us where the bottom of oil price is!
What are we going to do next for SKPETRO?
Stick to our investment plan:
To deploy another 20% at PE 9 +- : Price around 2.87
To deploy another 20% at PE 8 +- : Price around 2.55
To deploy another 20% at PE 7 +-: Price around 2.23
To deploy my last 20% at PE 6 +- : Price around 1.91 (near to lowest post IPO on 2012)
I might consider taking profit on SKPETRO if it hits 10% above my purchase price (if it happens and market is still choppy). To be updated in our FB page if any action taken.
Back to my friend who works in a company going for IPO. Guess what, the management is delaying the IPO date! One of the many reasons; Outlook for 2015 1st half is expected to be challenging. If the potential IPO Company is delaying their BIG IPO PLAN, as a small IKAN BILIS, perhaps I should sit down and drink some coffee, take my own sweet time to accumulate SKPETRO.
P/S: Historical PE 16 is not cheap. Forwards PE 9.66 is base on my own simple forecast. What if SKPetro might not be able to deliver 2nd half 2014 results as good as 1st half of 2014? PE should go higher than PE 9.66. Sit tight and watch the show. . Our crystal ball still not working btw.
Disclaimer and Declaration
The full content of the article is for educational purposes only and should not be used as investment recommendations. We are not responsible for all investment activities conducted by the participants and cannot be held liable for any investment loss. Examples of specific shares may be citied for
illustration purposes.
Regards,
Humble Pie,
Invest Coach
Stock
2014-11-10 12:50 | Report Abuse
sharing fr www.facebook.com/myinvestcoach :
SKPETRO @ 3.08: A Good Buy or Goodbye?
P/E : 16.2 (3.08/0.19 – closing price @ 7/11/2014)
Forward P/E : 9.66 - Pass
3.08 X [(Q1 2014~8.5, Q2 2014~7.44) X 2 (annualized it by X2)]
P/BV : 1.77 - Neutral
Dividend per share : 0.0235 (2011 0, 2012 0, 2013 0, 2014 0.235)
Dividend Yield : 0.763% - Fail
Current Ratio : 1.07 – Pass
Quick Ratio : 0.89 – Neutral
Debt/Equity Ratio : 1.61 – Neutral
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.45 - Pass
A lot of speculations out there lately trying to guess where is the lowest point of Crude Oil price. USD80, USD70 or USD 60? How about SK Petro? Bottom at 3.08 and to rebound soon as most argued and some minority predicting it shall go lower. Who is better in predicting future price? The optimistic or the pessimistic?
At Invest Coach, we have no crystal ball for this. I do not know. What we do is to evaluate the deal and make the best Investment Decision based on evaluation.
Historical PE at 16 is not considered cheap but it is acceptable for Big Cap organization. We evaluate further by using latest 2014 Q1 and Q2 EPS which comes at 8.5 and 7.44. We annualized it by X2 = EPS 31.88. Using current price 3.08, we have a FORECAST 2014 FORWARD PE of 9.66. Now relook again, for a Big Cap company, forward PE of around 10 seems attractive. Let’s drill deeper;
Out of all the ratios we used, it failed only 1 which is Divided Yield. SK Petro has no record on giving good dividends. For this round of analysis, I am adding Interest Coverage Ratio and putting a higher demand on their D/E Ratio. Reason being, SK Petro is famous for their high gearing thus we have to exercise extra cautious on this stock. It end up ACCEPTABLE in our risk appetite.
(Note: To gauge on our Risk appetite on Liquidity Ratios and Solvency Ratios, please refer to our Investment Book Guidelines: Create a Secondary Income Stream by Chua I-MIN, CFA (page 53 ~ 58).
This round, I am also adding some thoughts on the Economic Analysis and Business Analysis model:
Economics of drilling, some drilling activities shall be stopped if oil price touches USD75 and below.
Some good ones able to drill with the cost of USD65 and the bad ones at USD90. The best drillers in the world do it around USD50. What’s next: I DO NOT KNOW. How about business analysis on SKPetro? The price has dropped from the high of 4.96 to 3.08. A whole 38% dropped even before market crashed. A lot of retailers out there is buying now. Base on fundamental valuations it looks acceptable. How the price will perform next? Up or down, I DO NOT KNOW.
AS A MINORITY, WHAT AM I GOING TO DO?
‘Base on info received, value and react!’
1. If I do not have SK Petro shares:
Buy at price 3.08 (Forward PE 10) is REASONABLE but not cheap, to deploy 20% of my intended funds for SK Petro at 3.08.
To deploy another 20% at PE 9 +- : Price around 2.87
To deploy another 20% at PE 8 +- : Price around 2.55
To deploy another 20% at PE 7 +-: Price around 2.23
To deploy my last 20% at PE 6 +- : Price around 1.91 (near to lowest post IPO on 2012)
2. If I do have SK Petro shares:
To consider average down below 3.
Break your cash into 5 stages and starts accumulating around PE 9 +- and below.
Be prepared to hold long term WITHOUT DIVIDENDS. If you are not able to tolerate for LONG TERM INVESTMENTS and NO DIVIDENDS, DO NOT AVERAGE DOWN.
3. Keep in view 3 things:
i: monitor the OIL PRICE – price will stabilize at one point of time. You may see the price trading few dollars in range with no further drops and good news starts being reported. From there only starts to deploy your funds in if your bullets is not much.
Ii: try not to guess the lowest point for OIL and SKPetro price. Most of the time, we are wrong
and the market is correct.
Iii: do not go ‘ALL IN’ aka ‘SHOW HAND’ in 1 counter at 1 go. You will not be able to sleep well at
night. Effective Portfolio Management is part of the game.
P/S: Put into consideration of SKPetro designated as Non Syariah compliant securities by End November.
I am in no hurry to accumulate SK Petro by letting the big boys do their ‘Institutional Portfolio Restructuring’. If SK Petro is not being designated as Non Syariah Compliant and OIL Price recovers, I can always do average up and do my ‘Portfolio Restructuring’.
Disclaimer and Declaration
The full content of the article is for educational purposes only and should not be used as investment recommendations. We are not responsible for all investment activities conducted by the participants and cannot be held liable for any investment loss. Examples of specific shares may be citied for
illustration purposes.
Regards,
Humble Pie,
Invest Coach
Stock
2014-11-05 16:04 | Report Abuse
Minority Shareholders VS PJ Development (OLH) – David VS Goliath story
PJ Development background: October 2014
P/E : 3.17 (Price 1.57 /Basic EPS 49.6) – Price closing as at 31/10/2014 ...
P/BV : 0.62
NTA : 2.54
Dividend per Share : 0.05 (0.025 ex at 9 June and 0.025 ex at 2 Dec 2014 - annualized)
Dividend yield : 3.18% (Closed 1.57 at 31/10/2014) (payout ratio is 13.48%)
Current Ratio : 2.57 (12 months June 2014) - PASS
Quick Ratio : 2.06 (12 months June 2014) – PASS
Debts/Equity Ratio : 0.56(12 months June 2014) – PASS
OLH is doing a tri – party private agreement for OSK Holdings, OSK Property and PJD. Offering to buy PJD at 1.60 per share.
PJ Development NTA is 2.54, if we break it down and sell sum of parts we shall get 2.54 for every share we held. But the issue is, OLH is offering to buy at 1.60, which is 38% below NTA. Using our some our recommended financial ratios, we found that PJD is a good company but is a bad stock due to the offer.
OLH & Party Acting in Concern
OLH is a veteran stockbroker. Always do what he does best; to create more value for the company/himself. For our case study, Malaysia market average for taking over regardless of MGO or VGO for mid cap property related is around 6x~8x PE. He is buying from the minority at 50% market rate (PE 3.17).
But if you look at his point of view, PJD never traded above 1.60 (until early June 2014). If a party wish to buy his stake at RHB, of coz OLH will increase his grip at OSK Holdings to get more value from the shares swap. Plus, he is no longer playing an active role at the RHB entity. To surface the real value/profits of PJD to get a better swap for OSK Holding shares is an easy decision.
- Better grip on OSKH - 44% to 51%
- Higher OSKH shareholdings = higher value in RHBCap (will be more benefitted if CIMB/RHB/MBSB merged)
- To concentrate and build OSKH as a 1st tier developer (combination of PJD, OSKP, OSKH)
Just swapping the shares will automatically create a higher valuations/personal asset wealth in RHB Cap and much higher if RHB/CIMB/MBSB deal really kicks in. Difficult decision? Not at all.
We drill deeper for 2013 statements:
PJ Development background: October 2013
P/E : 7.23 (Price 0.94 /Basic EPS 13) – Price closing as at 1/7/2013
EPS : 0.13
Dividend per Share : 0.05 (no change compare to 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013)
Dividend yield : 5.3% (30 June 2013)
For the past 5 years, regardless PJD is making huge profits or flat, OLH still giving you 5 cents. As 2014, PJD did exceptionally well, STILL GIVING US 5 CENTS. We shall take out this ‘distorted 2014 year financial statement – put it as one off gain’.
2013 EPS = 0.13
2014 EPS = 0.49 (ignore)
2015 EPS = 0.156 (EPS 2013 + 20% EPS growth)
If you buy PJD now and to estimate 2015’s PE:
1.60 / 0.156 = PE 10.2, dividend yield 3.12%, if I am OLH, why I would want to pay you so high? I just want to surface PJD’s 2014 earnings just enough for me to swap for higher OSKH shares.
Total income 2013 = RM 61m vs total receivables 2013 = RM294m
Total income 2014 = RM 224m vs total receivables 2014 = RM 532m
See where is the numbers come from now?
Minority Shareholders
Our argument is quite solid. A company is offering to buy shares worth 2.54 from me for 1.60, PE at 3.5 and P/BV at 0.62. No need to ask, any pak cik/mak cik/ah kuai down the street out there will scold and turn this offer down.
Reason:
PJD offer is a VGO and not MGO, there is no time frame from a VGO to be concluded. Why want to sell when you are being given a bad deal? If, OLH fails to get to get the shares, this merger will be off and potentially PJD price will return to its true value. If OLH able to get the majority shares, a MGO will kicks in, then only we shall evaluate again.
OLH did his best to create value for himself. Sometimes, we might have forgotten, this company belongs to him. Company’s offer is always to take care of the major shareholders. This is what OLH did. Not surprising.
AS A MINORITY, WHAT AM I GOING TO DO?
‘Base on offer received, value it and react!’
1. If I have PJD shares:
Offer 1.60 to buy my 2.54 is not fair and not reasonable, REJECT the VGO offer.
Even if I bought much earlier from 0.5 to 1.60, why I want to sell cheap?
2. If I do not have PJD shares:
Buy. I will accumulate PJD shares at 1.60 +-.
VGO is not a major concern. OLH is likely not able to accumulate the majority shares for privatization.
3. If VGO fails, most likely price will recover. If VGO succeeded, you will end up holding OSKH shares which is first tier property stock! How bad can it go?
P/S: A veteran businessman once told me, OLH’s business sense is EXTREMELY SHARP! If you have the chance to meet OLH personally and shakes his hand, be extra careful, you might just get your HAND CUT AND BLEED!
Regards,
Humble Pie,
Invest Coach
Stock
2014-11-05 15:55 | Report Abuse
QL launched a takeover on Lay Hong for 3.50 apiece.
P/E : 24.6 (3.45/0.14)
Forward P/E : 10.9
... 3.45 X [(Q1 2014~3.12, Q2 2014~12.64) X 2 (annualized it by X2)]
P/BV : 1.35 - Fail
Dividend per share : 0.05 (2010 0, 2011 0.05, 2012 0.05 2013 0)
Dividend Yield : 1.45% - Fail
Current Ratio : 0.79 – Fail
Quick Ratio : 0.36 – Fail
Debt/Equity Ratio : 2.32 - Fail
Last AGM saw 63% shareholders booted Chia Mak Hooi (QL) out from the board of directors. It seems odd in our industry. QL is 24x larger than Lay Hong and investors perceive QL is able to bring value from their synergy in Lay Hong. What is going on? I dare to put on an assumption; my guts feeling telling me that Lay Hong owns more than 50% instead of 44.17% via friendly parties/proxies.
At 3.50 a piece with historical PE 24 is very pricey but Yap’s family said the offer is NOT FAIR and NOT REASONABLE. No need ask uncle/auntie/ah kuai out there la. It is not about the price, the company is not for sale! ASSUMING my guts feeling is correct that Yap’s family holding more than 50% of voting rights and do not plan to sell, what will be the upcoming issues?
The issue is: THE OFFER IS CONDITIONAL!
QL offering to buy Layhong with A CONDITIONAL VOLUNTARY TAKEOVER OFFER @ 24 Sept 2014 (now MANDATORY – after exceeded 33%). What does it mean?
In a lay man term: QL will be obligated to buy your shares at 3.50 a piece PROVIDED QL OWNS and RECEIVED MORE THAN 50% + 1 share of Layhong. IF QL FAILS TO GET 50% + 1 share of Layhong, the 3.50 a piece is NO DEAL! QL will return the shares to you even if you have signed to surrender your shares to QL. Latest filing at Bursa @ 4th November shows that QL owns 37.31% of Layhong shares. ASSUMING Yap’s family owns more than 44%, I wonder how the deal would go through.
AS A MINORITY, WHAT AM I GOING TO DO?
‘Base on offer received, value it and react!’
1. If I have Layhong shares:
Offer 3.50 (historical PE 24) to buy my 2.30 a piece (pre VGO) is fair and reasonable, SELL TO THE MARKET.
2. If I do not have Layhong shares:
Do not touch. PE 24 with a net profit margin 1.24% (2014) is no good.
3. If MGO fails, most likely price will drop back to the range of pre VGO: 2.20 to 2.40 (PE 16 +-) QL will return to you your shares (3.50 NO GO). If MGO succeeded, you will get paid 3.50 apiece. Which one is better? You decide.
In this QL VS Layhong scenario, actually there is no loser between them. Layhong not intended to sell and they got their objective met by booting Chia out from the board. Now Yap’s family can run the company freely. For QL case, they came in at 2010 at the price of 1.05 for 24% stake. Assuming MGO fails, price drop to 2.10 apiece, the still made a tidy gain of 100% for 4 years of investments. Not bad at all for Dr. Chia Song Kun, the man behind QL.
P/S: The price now at 3.45 due to 0.05 dividend Ex at 16 October 2014. Have to minus that out.
Disclaimer and Declaration
The full content of the article is for educational purposes only and should not be used as investment recommendations. We are not responsible for all investment activities conducted by the participants and cannot be held liable for any investment loss. Examples of specific shares may be citied for
illustration purposes.
Regards,
Humble Pie,
Invest Coach
Stock: [BAUTO]: BERMAZ AUTO BERHAD
2015-02-23 17:18 | Report Abuse
from www.facebook.com/myinvestcoach (posted on 20 feb) :
Berjaya Auto Berhad: 5248 - Banking on upcoming Mazda Models
You may also read at humblepie188.blogspot.com
Dear Friends,
Happy Goat Year to All! From some of the 4Q reports announced lately, we some weaker performances. We still remain CAUTIOUS even tough oil price is stabilizing. We are more stringent on our stock selections.
Berjaya Auto:
Rolling 4Q EPS : 3.88 (Jan 2014) + 5.97 (April 2014) + 6.95 (July 2014) + 7.12 (Oct 2014)
: 23.66
* The EPS has been on an uptrend since IPO Listing (from 3.88 to 7.12). If you look at it more closely, BJAuto is introducing Mazda 2 (Jan 2015), Mazda 3 (March 2015), improved version of Mazda 6, CX-5 and CX-3. Looking at this scenario, they should be able to cushion up against the challenging 2015. I believe with weakening yen, the upcoming Jan 2015 Quarterly report should be okay.
Rolling 4 Quarters P/E: 3.45 / 23.66
: 14.6x
With Mazda 2 launched, assuming BJAuto able to maintain EPS 6.95 + 7.12 for the next 2 Quarters (of course with the help of other new models)
Forecast Forwarded P/E: 3.45 (Price)/ 28 EPS
= 12x (acceptable)
Dividends given on 2014: 0.0875
Dividend Yield : 2.5% (comparable to money market deposits)
Although this stock might not be a trade able hot stock, nevertheless it is safe stock. Better be cautious than sorry
Happy trading!
Humble Pie