Alan Greenspan said party is OVER on Wall Street !!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/12/18/business/alan-greenspan-stock-market-party-over/index.html

Keith, for reference to coke future contract, it is better to refer to the Main Contract (主力合约）as it is one of the more heavily traded coke future and can more accurately guide the future direction of the coke SPOT price.

The Main Contract ONLY fall on three months, namely Jan (J1901), May (J1905) and Sept (J1909). As now is the month of Dec, so the current main contract is J1905 (J1901 was the previous main contract).

Other months coke future can be quite irrelevant as not much trade volume. So the WEIRD Near Term contract that you cited below is the Dec month future contract J1812. Its volume is ZERO and it is EXPIRING on 10 Dec 2018 as all coke future contract expire on the 10th day of the contract's month.

Pls see all the different months coke future price and holding volume
http://futures.quote.stockstar.com/DCE/JM.shtml
(you may see that december contract J1812 has ZERO holding volume 持仓量）
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Posted by Keith Han > Dec 8, 2018 09:58 AM | Report Abuse

Huaan trading coke and use coal price at China only. Sometimes coke future price and real product price is different. Kindly refer to china website below :

http://www.100ppi.com/sf/617.html

Blue line is actual coke price : 2053.33
Purple line is Main contract price : 1987
Near Term contract price : 3380 ( a bit weird , suddenly boost up )

Wow director Liu disposed 54 miilion shares !! Huaan prospects does not look good, at least in the short term.

If really must buy, wait at least one more mth as Huaan operator has the habit of pressing down for one mth plus.
But eventually 20 sen will be coming as coke are being sold CHEAP CHEAP !!

For 2 consecutive qtrs, Huaan coke average price has been about 200 lower than Linyi city coke average, hence the poor results in Q1 and Q2 2018. Consequently, earnings has dropped more than 90% from 3.04 sen (Q3'17) to 0.23 sen (Q2'18).

It will not be a surprise if Huaan repeat the same low coke price, AGAIN, in Q3 to give another poor quarter.

So face the reality mate, below 20 sen is coming .......

Now high coke price also useless when they were selling them below market price.

Qtr 1 EPS 0.49 sen, go down to 26 sen. Q2 EPS 0.23 sen, at least will go below 26 sen, and below 20 sen is possible. Huaan is not the same now.

Wait below 20sen, just in case another poor qtr coming, due to selling coke CHEAP CHEAP !!

Should ask the mgmt in the next agm why they are selling cheap.

Next qtr will be poor again if Huaan keep selling coke cheap cheap.

Disappointing to see Huaan selling coke much lower than Linyi city market price, AGAIN !! Have they move the factory out of Linyi city ???

If Huaan coke average price is continued to be about 200 lower than Linyi city coke average, then expect to see a poor Q3 ahead.

If Huaan Q2 coke average is close to Linyi city coke average of 2017, then Q2 earnings should be about 1 sen or more.

Wow, 2 CONSECUTIVE qtrs where Huaan coke average selling price was about 200 lower than Linyi city coke average selling price !!! Something wrong somewhere ???

Based on http://m.ccmn.cn site, Linyi city coke average selling price for Q2 was about 2017
(Apr: 2000 -> 1800, May: 1850 -> 2050, Jun: 2050 -> 2350), but Huaan average was about 200 lower at 1836, why such a BIG disparity ??
http://m.ccmn.cn/mluliao/focalcarbon/?offset=1420

Previously Huaan Q3 and Q4 2017 coke average was quite near to Linyi city coke average, but now Q1 and Q2 2018 both lower than Linyi city average by about 200. Anything wrong ??

if can go down to low 20s, then still got good chance to make good money.

Huaan operators are very patient chaps. Nov last year, they took one month to push down from 35.0 to 21.5, on the issue of delisting, despite good Q3'17 result.
On the same token, they will capitalise kaw kaw on this "poor" Q1 result (emphasis on the quotation mark " "), to push Huaan down to low 20s again,
So be patient, get it low, as Q2 is going to be much better than Q1 "poor" result (emphasis on the quotation mark " "). Of course they will spook the market that Q2 will be bad.

That is why sharks are back !! As i said before, sharks are no fools, they would not circle the sea for nothing.

adam, it is not cyclical, it was one time adjustment, but u are right that q2 will be better. Wait for cheap sale tmr .,., yum yum !

Market may react strongly to this "poor" Q1 result (emphasis on the quotation marks) and will offer good opportunity for value buy. Just remember, Q2 result definitely will be much better !!

It was shocking to read Huaan Q1'18 average coke price was 1921, when Linyi city Q1 average coke price was about 200 higher at 2164 !
Huaan low Q1 average coke price was the main cause of the drastic drop in Q1 earning,

After going through the past records, it dawn on me there is a REAL reason for Huaan "low" Q1 average coke price and "poor Q1 result" (emphasis on the quotation marks), it is for the good of the company, specific of which i can not elaborate further, safe to say if you care to investigate, you may find the clue in my past comments.

Anywhere don't expect to see such shocker in Q2 anymore and Q2 result definitely will be much better than this "poor" Q1 result (again emphasis on the quotation marks).

You may use the xiaohatu graph as a guide to see the coke margin (thanks to bro Keith again)
http://xiaohatu.com/chart/share/599abdc255244e002199e677

Betta68, Huaan coking coal price certainly not as high as the national average quoted in 100ppi (Q4'17 100ppi average= 1378 but Huaan 1317). But since coking coal national average has increased in Q1'18, i expect Huaan coking coal cost to increase in tandem.

However, part of Huaan Q1'18 coking coal used may be old stock, which costs lower, hence better coke margin. That is why i estimate the high of Q1'18 earning to be 3 sen. If your rate of below 1250 is accurate, then earning will be more than 3 sen. Let us wait for the qtr tmr !

Q1'18 EPS should be good again due to the higher coke spot price.
Expect 2 sen to 3 sen (Q4'17 was 2.29 sen)

Based on 9ai9 date (formerly 52steel data) for Linyi city coke spot price
http://www.9ai9.com/marketlist.aspx?lm=11&cs=230309&pz=13&pg=1
Q4'17 coke average price = 2001 (Huaan actual 2019)
Q1'18 coke average price = 2164
Increase = 2164 - 2001 =163.

Based on 100ppi data (national coking coal spot price)
http://www.100ppi.com/sf/day-2018-01-02.html
Q4'17 coking coal average price = 1378 (Huaan actual 1317)
Q1'18 coking coal average price = 1490
Increase = 1490 - 1378 = 112
Effective increase = 1.4 * 112 = 156 (base on 1.4 kg of coking coal to make 1 kg of coke)

Q1'18 coke price increase (163) is more than the effective coking coal price increase (156), so Q1'18 coke margin should be better than Q4'17.

*******
However Q2'18 will not be as good, as Linyi city coke spot price has slided but coking coal spot still maintain at high price.

Linyi city coke spot price bottomed at 1810 since 12 april, and stay there.
http://www.9ai9.com/market/2018-04-12/d83bb48a-50ab-45c4-bbfe-5055e08b73f3.html
http://www.9ai9.com/market/2018-04-20/70574acf-435e-4acc-bc03-8759b47aaaed.html

Linyi city coke spot price should move up by late April or latest by early May because coke futures (J1809), which spot price follow in delay by 3 to 4 weeks, has reversed from bottom since 29 mar.
http://finance.sina.com.cn/futures/quotes/J1809.shtml (select 日K to see the daily chart)

So monitor the futures to predict the spot movement.

...... just my 2 sen.

Now even good result good growth good future companies all drop. Have to wait until GE over and trade war issue die off before things look up.

Posted by Betta68 > Apr 4, 2018 06:02 PM | Report Abuse

Harlem, Q1'18 average coke sale price was higher compared to Q4'17, so what make you think that the margin is lower? And how mutch lower, is it marginal or significant? I think its marginal but i do not expect any loses, do you?
---------------------------------

Betta68, after going into the details, actually you could be right !! if Q1'18 coke margin is lower (if any), it is only marginal.

Based on 52steel data (Linyi city coke spot price)
http://www.52steel.com/marketlist.aspx?lm=11&cs=230309&pz=13&gc=&pg=1
Q4'17 coke average price = 2001 (Huaan actual 2019)
Q1'18 coke average price = 2164
Increase = 2164 - 2001 =163.

Based on 100ppi data (general coking coal spot price)
http://www.100ppi.com/sf/day-2018-01-02.html
Q4'17 coking coal average price = 1378 (Huaan actual 1317)
Q1'18 coking coal average price = 1490
Increase = 1490 - 1378 = 112
Effective increase = 1.4 * 112 = 156 (base on 1.4 kg of coking coal to make 1 kg of coke)

So for Q1'18 the coke price increase (163) could be even more than the effective coking coal price increase (156) ... and so coke margin may not be lower in Q1 !!! (correction to my earlier projection)

Now the concern is the current qtr (Q2) as Linyi city coke spot is now down at 1910 (decreased by 250 from Q1 average) but coking coal spot is still maintain at the high 1490.
http://www.52steel.com/market/2018-04-04/b8f30b00-0942-43bd-92de-8bfaa4ab5bff.html
http://www.100ppi.com/sf/day-2018-04-03.html

Furthermore no sign of coke spot to improve as major coke futures contract, May (JM1805) and Sept (JM1809) are both lows at 1889 and 1796 respectively.
http://futures.quote.stockstar.com/DCE/JM.shtml

... and if the coking coal spot price is still maintained in the 1490 range, then Q2 results will not be pretty.

Today down probably is more of market sentiment, but still have to bear in mind Huaan current situations (said on 29/3/18):
Huaan Q4'17 coke margin was lower due to higher coking coal price, but Q1'18 coking coal price is even higher than Q4'17, so Huaan Q1'18 coke margin could be lower again, and results in lower eps for Q1'18.

you may have to delete the https to see the site www.100ppi.com/sf/day-2018-03-29.html

Actually was very disappointed with Q4 2017 result, until i stay silent till now. NONE of the good things expected materialised. Even the coke margin was lower despite high coke price in Q4 2017, which was caused by the higher coking coal price.

So the coking coal price is also an important factor, effect of which was underestimated earlier. The alarming thing now is that Q1 2018 coking coal price is even higher than last qtr and this could lower the coke margin further.
My estimate for Huaan coking coal price (whether it is higher or lower, not the exact figure) is based on average of the coking coal spot price from this site www.100ppi.com/sf/day-2018-03-29.html (you need to change the date to see prices for other dates).

If the coke margin is further eroded by this higher coking coal price, then what will be the eps for Q1? 1.5 sen or 1.0 sen perhap ?

Hope this may help to roughly gauge Huaan value in such volatile times for Huaan.

Whether director acquire at 0.45 or 0.39, he still earn the BIG arbitrage.
If no mediac hk stock to sell, NO NEED to follow director to acquire at 0.39 !!

Arbitrage gap could be closed by mediac hk come down, rather than local mediac go up.

1.35 !!

mediac hk REAL TIME 1.45 !!
https://www.etnet.com.hk/www/eng/stocks/realtime/quote.php?code=685
(need to press the Detail Quote button)

mediac hk 1.59
https://www.etnet.com.hk/www/eng/stocks/realtime/quote.php?code=685

mediac hk 1.51 !!

but mediac hk go down !!!

Most Kwai Chung 10.10 !

9.30 am hk market open

Most Kwai Chung real time quote. Need to press the Detail Quote button.
https://www.etnet.com.hk/www/eng/stocks/realtime/quote.php?code=1716

Have to press the Detail Quote button to see the real time data

https://www.etnet.com.hk/www/eng/stocks/realtime/quote.php?code=685

Hong Kong previous IPO King, Magnum Entertainment Group Holdings Ltd, was oversubscribed by 3,558 times, and on its opening day went from initial public offering price of HK$1.50 to HK$3.21.
http://www.atimes.com/article/most-kwai-chung-stands-to-be-the-best-hk-ipo/
https://www.reuters.com/article/hongkong-club-ipo/magnum-rockets-in-hk-debut-as-mom-and-pop-investors-get-night-club-fever-idUSL3N0KX16K20140123

but MOST KWAI CHUNG was Oversubscribed by 6,200 times !! Becoming New IPO Oversubscription King.
How far can MOST go from its initial public offering price of HK$1.00-HK$1.20 on its opening day?
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-content/NOW.862789/latest-news

MOST KWAI CHUNG Oversubscribed by 6,200x, Becoming New IPO Oversubscription King
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-content/NOW.862789/latest-news

Has to wait for the qtr to confirm whether oven 4 & 5 is in production.

Betta68, salute to your tireless effort in supporting Huaan in this forum !!

Q4 is expected to be good, so stay cool .... it is only a few hours from the qtr, or latest by tomorrow.

The important question to ask now is whether Q4 good result may sustain in Q1 2018.

Based on 52steel.com site, Linyi city coke spot average for Q4 2017 = rmb 2001/ton.
http://www.52steel.com/marketlist.aspx?lm=11&cs=2303&pz=1307&gc=&pg=1

For Q1 2018, Linyi city coke spot average from 2/1/18 to 27/2/18 = rmb 2200/ton,
that is 200 more than Q4 2017 average !!!

Linyi city coke spot as on 27/2/2018 has dropped to 1960 and this continue may bring down the average for Q1 2018.
http://www.52steel.com/market/2018-02-27/080b6af6-a215-438c-8ccf-4b8c5206701e.html

But do not worry, Linyi city coke spot is going to move up soon.
This is because coke futures contract J1805, which now stand above 2200, has started to move up since early Feb 2018.
http://finance.sina.com.cn/futures/quotes/J1805.shtml (pls select 日K)
and Linyi coke spot will follow the coke futures uptrend soon as coke spot normally follow coke futures in DELAY fashion by 3 to 4 weeks.

So by next march, Linyi city coke spot is expected to reach at least 2100, and this will bring the Linyi city Q1 2018 coke spot average to at least 2100 (better than Q4 2017 by 100)

So conclusion is that Q1 2018 profit will be at least same, if not better than Q4 2017 !!
(EXCLUDING the "one off" gain in Q4 2017, if any, such as hedging gain, reversal of impairment, by-product coal tar extreme high price in Q4 2017)

Huaan is now only in FIRST leg of its serious uptrend, there is still 2nd and 3rd leg to come !!

Long way to go, bros ....... but have to put on seat belt tight tight, as the journey had been and will still be bumpy. Cheers to all the believers in Huaan ......

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Posted by harlem > Dec 26, 2017 09:46 PM | Report Abuse X

Huaan is now in 1st leg of serious uptrend. After the explosive Q4 result, it will enter 2nd leg of serious uptrend. When IB restart coverage of Huaan later, it will enter 3rd leg of serious uptrend, which will subsequently bring Huaan to 1.00 !!

The path has been paved, let the passage of time do the walk.

Huaan, you are simply MARVELLOUS . . . . . . . ! ! !

Wonderful performance by Huaan today ! Come back earliet than I expected, Great !!!

In the worst case scenario, the price may be intentionally press down until 4Q annoucement, just like it was pressed down from 35 to 22 in Nov/Dec. so stay cool bros !!

Huaan will come back STRONGER. full stop.