Operator field day again ! Let them enjoy the game !

bunnypro, just my two cent, if talk about result, it will not disappoint if one does not hope for all the good things happen in Q4, as at the bare minimum, the coke and by-product coal tar high prices in Q4 will deliver earning of at least 3.5 sen.

The only possible but REMOTE spoiler will be no dividend, which in my opinion, not quite likely given Huaan 20% dividend policy.

With this strong performance, Huaan holders are expected to have a happy weekend, maybe with some even smile in their sleep !! Hmm, how sweet ......... but come Q4 result, alas, they might not smile in their sleep again. Why ???

Because THEY CANNOT EVEN SLEEP . . . ! ! !

Wow, another good week for Huaan ! So Huaan has for 3 WEEKS IN A ROW, gained at least 10 sen per week (11sen, 10.5sen, 10.5sen) !! That was a remarkable feat by any standard.

Expect the same strong performance in the coming weeks, as there is virtually no wall to stop Huaan, aptly depicted by Betta68's analogy below.

As Q4 result draw nearer, the same analogy will still stand. perhap this time the spider web will be more loosely built !!

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Posted by Betta68 > Jan 12, 2018 12:08 PM | Report Abuse

There were hardly any wall in Huaan track, only spider web, that break very easy...

bunnypro, i have no idea whether oven 6 and 7 are in the plan, but with oven 4 and 5 in operation, Huaan core earning will be at least 5 sen per qtr (if coke margin is maintained) and that is enough to send Huaan far above 1.00 and i believe many will be happy enough with that.

Nice closing today ! Look like Huaan is going to play the 0.50s theme this week (as cutely coined by astalavista early this morning).

If we liken Huaan breathtaking 133% rise from 22.5 (on 18/12) to 52.5 (8/1) in just 3 weeks as time travel, then Huaan is now in the 50s oldies era. However, after super Q4 with dividend is announced, then premises on:
1) the superb results
2) strong fundamentals
3) bright prospects
4) full return of confidence to Huaan
5) low pe,
this time machine will fly to the present time !! .... .. and later to the FAR FUTURE !!!!

This may sound unbelievable, but then earlier when I suggested Huaan target of 1.00 while Huaan was beaten down to the low 20s just before upliftment, I believed not many believe me too. But now many are shouting for 1.00 !!

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Posted by harlem > Dec 12, 2017 08:30 PM | Report Abuse X

Wah .... cruise ship so fast set sail already ? I thought only after upliftment !
If it really start already, then It is still EARLY days as it will be on a long journey to 1.00. To reach by 2nd half 2018. Cheers !

Welcome back singunsin !!

Wow, Huaan is seriously growing now. What is more it is still only at BUDDING stage !!! Expect MORE MORE MORE to come !!

DARE to dream BIG, and you just might get it, again, with the compliments of Sino-Huaan . . . ! ! !

Have some popcorn ready too at that time .......

Good closing today !! Huaan is now like a pressure cooker, everyday exert pressure upward as Q4 results draw near. Once Q4 is announced, the cooker lid will simply just BLASTS OFF !! Hoo Hoo . . . . looking forward to that spectacular sights, with the compliments of Sino-Huaan . . . . ! !

Good on you, dom !!

Thanks Keith !

Thanks to Keith Han for the 小哈图 quoted above.
http://xiaohatu.com/screen/598c11e0673c75002f420c0f/59954d7756ba1500200e12ea/59955092447b9a0010f77324

On a lighter note, if our dear friend dompeilee, who don't even had a way to trade met coke, can theoretically make profit of 250 in the coke future small run-up from 1600+ to 2000+ (spread of about 400) in Nov 2017, then I believe Huaan, being an industry player who have their fingers on the pulse of the industry and who could easily have access to EXPERT coke futures analysts, could do better than dompeilee's 250, when the spread from top (Aug/Sept) to bottom (Nov) was as big as 800+ !! Right dom ?

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Posted by dompeilee > Nov 24, 2017 03:15 PM | Report Abuse

Sigh...Wish I had a way to trade met coke coz my prediction 2 wks ago( 1750 going to 2000 min) has proven correct. Anyway I am indirectly long that commodity by keeping my 78k Huaan.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL !!!

Let us start this new year with some positive sharing. Earlier I said hedging could be the DARK HORSE which could make profit of rmb 600 - 700 ton for Huaan in Q4. Below is elaboration on this dark horse.

First, let us examine the likelihood of Huaan hedging for Q4. For an understanding of hedging by coke producer, please see this example.
(http://www.360doc.cn/article/1688791_112957041.html - pls use google to translate)

So two conditions are required for coke producers to hedge the coke futures:-
1. coke futures HIGH PRICE
2. RISK of coke spot prices fall in future and affect profit

These two conditions were clearly presence in Aug / Sept 2017 when:
1. coke futures was at sky high price of about 2500 (pls see the main future contract at that time, J1801 http://finance.sina.com.cn/futures/quotes/J1801.shtml - please select 日K)
2. high risk of coke spot price fall in Q4'17 and Q1'18 due to the state winter production control and affect profit

So in Aug/Sept 2017, it is LOGICAL for any prudent coke producer to hedge at the coke futures to LOCK IN PROFITS. In fact it is a Golden Opportunity to hedge at that time because for the past few years, coke spot price was very depressed (way below 2500) The nearest to the future price of 2500 was in Nov/Dec 2016 when Linyi coke spot was at high of 2200 only.
(http://xiaohatu.com/screen/598c11e0673c75002f420c0f/59954d7756ba1500200e12ea/59955092447b9a0010f77324)

So based on
(1) the above reasonings;
(2) the chinese article claiming that "Futures become black industries enterprises operating standards to overcome hardship and protect profit" http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1765,20171128806767516.html (pls see my comment on 29/11); and
(3) circumstantial evidences suggesting that Huaan HAD HEDGED BEFORE in Q2 (pls see my comment on 19/11),
then the likelihood of Huaan hedging in Aug/Sept was almost certain.

So now the question to ask is how much profit Huaan could make by hedging in Aug/Sept 2017. Coke future contract J1801 peak near 2500 in Aug/Sept 2017 and bottom at 1663 on 24/10, so the spread is about a BIG GAP of 800+.
(http://finance.sina.com.cn/futures/quotes/J1801.shtml - please select 日K)

Under such situations, I believe:
(i) a good hedger can make profit of 600-700 per ton !! (eg. sell futures at 2400 in Aug/Sep, later buy back at 1800 in Nov)
(ii) an average hedger can make profit of 300 per ton (eg. sell futures at 2200 in Aug/Sep, later buy back at 1900 in Nov)
(iii) even a poor hedger can make profit of 100 per ton

So if Huaan made profit of 300 per ton, then profit
= 200,000 tons x 300 profit per ton x 0.62 exchange rate
= RM37.2 million (or EPS of 3.3 sen) !

If Huaan made profit of 600 per ton, then profit
= 200,000 tons x 600 profit per ton x 0.62 exchange rate
= RM74.4 million (or EPS of 6.6 sen) !

This hedging profits will simply EXPLODE Huaan Q4 EPS ! ! ! !

Just to add my two cents again. Beside patient, preserverance is also required to ride this Huaan wave, as Huaan sometimes is in rough sea (artificially made of course, just like yesterday) and could scare the wits out of many !

Good on you, singunsin !!

@Jun Lim Ng, pls read my past comments and you probably will have a good guess whether I sold all or still hold ! Happy New Year to you too !!

Aiseh singunsin, sold all already ? .... when the super Q4 is just round the corner ? Anywhere, as long as you are happy, so be it. Happy New Year to you !!

Today operator show time. They have good harvest today. Those who bought high today, your time will come, only have to wait for next month !!

After the profit taking done, it will come back STRONGER !! though not necessary today !

Good dream dom ! You have my support !

So Huaan flexed his real muscles today, and wow ..., what a sight ! Now everybody is in awe, Great !! Huaan will be busy in the gym from now on, expect to see more of his muscles !!

YES Huaan, you are THE MAN . . . . . ! ! ! ! !

Huaan is now in 1st leg of serious uptrend. After the explosive Q4 result, it will enter 2nd leg of serious uptrend. When IB restart coverage of Huaan later, it will enter 3rd leg of serious uptrend, which will subsequently bring Huaan to 1.00 !!

The path has been paved, let the passage of time do the walk.

Huaan, you are simply MARVELLOUS . . . . . . . ! ! !

Wow, amazing ! Linyi coke spot today up by 100 to 2400 !!
http://www.52steel.com/market/2017-12-25/1b7edbb1-bbca-41f7-8e58-e60328c7fb9e.html

This is really unexpected. This is even higher than September high of 2300. That mean Linyi coke spot is now on HISTORICAL HIGH (for the past 5 years and more) !!! wow ......

So we have our presents in Bursa, and Huaan have their presents in this higher Linyi coke spot. Now everybody is happy. Great !!

Aiseh, been waiting for dompeilee response for one whole day, but . . . . . . . . . . nvm anywhere merry christmas to dom and all the believers in Huaan and happy holiday to our muslim bros too. Cheers !

After all, it has only been less than one week since the gate opened. After collection done, even IB will restart coverage on Huaan. Lot of smart guys in this market, respect !!

Just my 2 cents again. Ppl are still in collection, in SILENT MODE ...... shhhhhhhh

Aiyo dompeilee, don't so stingy leh, why always Merry x'mas to "ME" leh ?

Nice closing today. After the upliftment, rules of the game have changed. New players are coming, many with deep pocket too, Exciting times ahead for Huaan. Cheers !

I share the same view with you Betta68. Just to add my two cents, they also would not go too low, otherwise they risk "do tne dowry for others" (为别人做嫁妆) !

Thanks for the update, Keith. 小哈图 is really handy !

Notwithstanding the above said, Huaan price might still come down tmr, ha ha ha ! But it is ok, medium/long term investors including me are not selling tmr !

So now Huaan have a total of 5 horses running for them !

1) Strong coke spot average (about same as Q3) (pls see my comment on 19/12)
2) By-products higher selling price (especially coal tar) which could make extra 5 mil ringgit profit (pls see my comment on 2/12)
3) Profits from hedging (pls see my comment on 19/11 & 29/11)
4) 78% increase of production volume (pls see my comment on 14/11)
5) Reversal of impairment (profit from 76.3 mil to 152.6 mil) (pls see my comment on 19/12)

This is simply AWESOME ! These horses will do great to the bottomline. Yeah ......

(and take special note of the hedging, it could be the DARK HORSE which could make profit of rmb 600 - 700 ton for Huaan in Q4)

ATTENTION ! ! ! ! ! ! Pls note what the 2013 Doctoral Theses said in the abstract
"On average, the Malaysian stock market values the reversals of impairment losses positively." .. Yeah, way to go!

Earlier I said Huaan Q4 earning could easily be 10 sen, and kelvin61 mentioned about reversal of impairment. Yes, it is the reversal of impairment that could make Q4 earning 10 sen (thanks kelvin61) Below is the elaboration on this reversal and its effect.

In Q4 2016, Huaan make impairment of Property, plant & equipment (PPE) for the sum of RM152.6 million (pls see pg. 4 of 2016 Q4 qrt rpt).

This impairment was essentially due to the DECREASE IN VALUE of the PPE which was caused by the poor coke market at that time which resulted in low utilisation of the 5 ovens (oven 1,2 & 3 leased out, 4 & 5 not in operation).

But 2017 coke market has recovered strongly and oven 1, 2 & 3 are now in full operation and produced good profits. Due to this coke market recovery, the PPE has REGAINS ITS VALUE, hence there is a need to reverse the impairment made in 2016.

You may read this article for a good understanding of impairment and its reversal.
https://accountingexplained.com/financial/non-current-assets/impairment-of-assets

Amount of impairment to be reversed:
(1) If oven 4&5 not yet in operation, then reverse half of 152.6 mil = 76.3 mil (or 6.8 sen profit)
(2) If oven 4&5 already start operation, the reverse the full 152.6 mil (or 13.6 sen profit)

If we assume oven 4&5 not yet in operation, then add the impairment reversal profit of 6.8 sen to the coke/by-products profit of 3.5 sen, then we have Huaan Q4 profit = 10.3 sen !
and this shoot up Huaan NTA from 31 sen to 41.3 sen !!
(if oven 4&5 in operation, then Q4 profit = 17.1 sen ......... !!! )

Though this reversal of impairment is not core earning, it signifies the strong recovery of the coke industries and it will bring back confidence for Huaan. This will augurs very well for Huaan share price !!! Yeah ................

(For actual examples of malaysia public listed companies reversal of impairment, you may read this 2013 Doctoral Theses - https://cora.ucc.ie/handle/10468/1371 )

Ha ha kelvin61, you let the cat out of the bag !
Anyway, it is ok. It is in fact good to know someone who share the view. Good on you, bro ! Cheers (<-- this "Cheers" I copy your style ! hahahaha ....)

Talking about strong 4Q, let us see how strong Huaan 4Q will be.

Linyi coke spot already reach 2300 yesterday and maintain this rate today. If Linyi spot remain 2300 for the rest of December (which is highly likely) then Huaan Q4 coke spot average is 1993. This is HIGHER than Q3 spot average of 1981 (based on 52steel data).

So Huaan Q4 profit should be at least 3.0 sen (Q3 profit is 3.1 sen). Add the by-products higher profit (especially the extra profit from coal tar), then Huaan Q4 profit will be at least 3.5 sen. This is BETTER THAN Q3 profit, wow !!!!
And that has not factor in the profit from hedging and higher production volume, which can give earning of at least 6 sen ! That is how STRONG Huaan Q4 will be.

In fact, even WITHOUT factor in the profit from hedging and higher production volume, Huaan Q4 profit could easily reach 10 sen ! Unbelievable right ? Well, I shall share how Huaan can attain that. In the meantime, stay tune. Cheers .......

So despite Huaan price lacklustre performance this morning after upliftment, it is really not a worry, if you are willing to hold for at least 3 to 6 months, as many good things are lining up for Huaan in short term:

1) Funds come in
2) Strong 4Q WITH dividend
3) IB restart coverage of Huaan

and they will STRONGLY push the share price up !

Wow, amazing ! What I expect to happen for the week all happen yesterday !

1) Linyi coke spot move to 2300
http://www.52steel.com/market/2017-12-18/e9360a91-8b5b-46b6-801f-a9188cf8d481.html

(today Linyi coke spot still maintain at 2300 http://www.52steel.com/market/2017-12-19/08e8bde0-6c15-48ba-be9a-404e447fa74d.html)

2) Upliftment

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Posted by harlem > Dec 18, 2017 07:01 AM | Report Abuse X

Looking forward to Linyi spot 2300 and upliftment this week.

Once IB restart coverage ..... wow ... ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE !!

Wow, UPLIFTED !!!! UPLIFTED !!!!
Let us bulldoze to 1.00 ..... CONFETTI ... CONFETTI .,.. CONFETTI ....... !!!

Wow, rebound look serious, Great ! Congrat to all Huaan believers, your perseverance is paid off. Today is only recovered some grounds lost in battles, the real WAR is at 1.00 .... fight on soldoers, you will make it !!

Looking forward to Linyi spot 2300 and upliftment this week.

Wow, J1801closed tonight at 2344, strong ! Linyi spot is certainly going to 2300 to chase this girlfriend. Yes, keep it up, boy.

Yes, and now futures contract J1801 is above 2300, look like Linyi spot can goto 2300 soon ..... to chase his girlfriend J1801, who will "leave" (expired) on 15/1/18 !

Keith, like the phrase in the article "一焦难求" (difficult to find a coke). That augur very well for the coke price. YES !!! CANTIK ......

Huaan past financial years were all either suffered losses or made only very tiny profit.
As Q4 earning is expected to be good, so 2017 will the first year for Huaan, since listing, to make good profit (at least 7 sen profit, possible more than 10 sen).

As "Hua-An Group is targeting to distribute approximately 20% of profit after tax as dividend.", so Huaan may for the first time declare dividend in Q4 ! Hoo Hoo .............
(http://www.sinohuaan.com/investor.html pls select IR FAQ)

If that is the case, then confidence for Huaan will come back strongly !
Investors who are China phobia may change their minds about Huaan, and that include dompeilee share kaki friends !

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Posted by dompeilee > Dec 15, 2017 01:19 AM | Report Abuse

I asked almost all my share investing friends. None dare to enter Huaan. Good sign :)

Coke futures contract J1801 (not the current main contract J1805), which expire on about 15/1/18, today is standing strong at 2,282.
http://finance.sina.com.cn/futures/quotes/J1801.shtml

Spot usually come close to futures when the futures is near expiry. Maybe later in the month, Linyi coke spot may go up to 2,250 / 2,300 !!

Maybe my guess that Bursa will announce the upliftment on 22/12 may turn out to be correct too!

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Posted by harlem > Nov 25, 2017 01:53 PM | Report Abuse X

For the upliftment, If Bursa follows the approval for extension to a tee, then Huaan will be presented with an early Christmas present on 22/12 !!