Jaks upside >>>>> exiting jaks-WB

Please take note only jaks is entitle to right + free warrant (exercise price only 49sen), exiting jaks-WB is NOT entitle at all. However, existing Jaks-WB exercise price will adjust lower than current 64sen.

COD to be announce soon

start moving

add more LC at 2.61

bought back LCtitan at 2.64

The major key of course is power plant, RM 200m net profit, EPS 11.5sen, steady deliver every year for next 25 year will give fair valuation at least 10x, target price RM 1.15 + in money free warrant which have exercise price 49sen

bought cypark at 87sen

The reason to be optimistic is that

1. Jaks already divest its loss making property development, trim its 51% stake to nil, therefore de-consolidate and recoup back about RM 71m profit to be reflected in upcoming Q result.

2. Jaks property investment properties in Evolve mall have reach breakeven occupancy rate 81%, therefore, eliminate loss making business

3. However, Jaks newly open Star pacific mall still at infancy stage with occupancy rate 60%. But, judging from strategy location in Pj16, the rental rate should be better than evolve mall, allowing breakeven to be achieved faster.

4. The Key point now is focus on Vietnam to be commecial operation by these month. Oct. and unit 2 in early next year. Revenue RM 2.6 billion pa, net profit margin 25%, tax free, will give jaks share of profit RM 200m net

5. All court, jaks is now trading at forward 4x PE valuation based on enlarge share after right

total average for 2 day accumulation cost around 87sen, will full subscribe right later at 22sen, further average cost down to 47sen + entitle full free warrant.

Based on full enlarge after right

1. power plant net profit RM 200m will give EPS = 11.5sen
2. share price average cost 47sen, PE trade at 4x
3. Fair PE 10x will give target price RM 1.15, upside potential 145%
4. Free warrant will give extra profit with fair trading premium 30% once listed

Accumulated last at 86.5sen completed

add more jaks at 86.5sen

sold back AWC at 40sen

sold back supermax at 10.72-10.74

sold back krono at 59sen

The ranking of benefit cost among 4 type of shareholder

1. New comer intend to buy jaks at 87sen now + full subscribe right at 22sen + free warrant

2. shareholder bought before right announcement at cost RM 1.20 + intend to buy more at 87sen to average down cost + full subscribe right 22 sen + free warrant

3. shareholder bought before right announcement at cost RM 1.20, subscribe on right + free warrant

4. shareholder bought before right announcement at cost RM 1.20, opt to sell part of the holding at 87sen to subscribe right + free warrant

before right share
1. power plant net profit RM 200m will EPS = 30sen
2. share price trading before right is around RM 1.20
3. PE 10x will give target price RM 3.00, upside potential 150%

after right share
1. power plant net profit RM 200m will give EPS = 11.5sen
2. share price trading now around 5 share x 87sen, cum 8 right x 22sen = 47sen
3. PE 10x will give target price RM 1.15, upside potential 145%

Therefore, in conclusion, shareholder are enjoying similar potential gain upside before and after right by peg to same power plant earning, and same valuation PE 10x,

Remark: shareholder now is even can enjoy much higher profit if take into account 4 free warrant after right.

bought back all supermax at 10.46

Now the ratio change to more reasonable level, less dilution with 8 right for 5 exiting share + 4 free warrant, issue at right 22sen.

Such dilution can easily cover back by upcoming steady power profit RM 200m pa. With disposal of loss making property development, Jaks future profit will no drag down anymore. The claim against star is wild card if manage to win over.

As the power progress is at fact track since May, the upcoming Jaks should record lump sum high progress billing from power plant construction

I change my mind to wait for Jaks-OR, instead now accumulating back jaks that is now cum right in order to firmly entitle all right and free warrant. The reason is because anytime from now in Oct, Jaks will announce commecial operation of it power plant, cannot afford to lose out these opptunity wait later next month in which jaks-OR only start trading.



Remark: JAKS Resources Bhd will see a recurring income totalling over RM720 mil per annum over the next 25 years from its upcoming power plant in Vietnam, according to JAKS’ CEO Andy Ang.

The Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant which will comprise of two 600MW units, will see the first unit come online some time in Oct 2020, ahead of the original timeline of Nov 2020.

https://focusmalaysia.my/mainstream/upcoming-vietnam-power-plant-could-bring-in-over-rm720-mil-per-year-says-jaks-ceo/

bought Jaks at 87-87.5sen

sold back LCtitan at 2.57-2.60

sold back supermax at 10.74-10.76

Courting down time for Q result to release, re-rating pending

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add supermax, all at 10.56

cut bstead at 63.5-64sen, swap all to supermax at 10.56

bought back supermax at 10.56

sold back D&O at 1.10

lets upcoming Q result to decide the fair value for LCtitan

Many healthcare related stock either in glove, chemical, plastic, mask are all in multiyear high level. But, Lctitan, a main base feedstock supplier is still at low level, lower than its IPO price significantly.

Petronas chemical IPO price at RM 5.04 vs, current market price RM 6.06

LCtitan IPO price at RM 6.50 vs, current market price RM 2.35

Lctitan still keep most of its capital raise from IPO intact, still on track to expand 2x bigger capacity in 2 year time.

Crude oil price remain low due to most of the refine product are at low demand (jet fuel, Gasoline, diesel). Naphtha only form about 11% of crude refine product.

Petrochemical company import these naphtha from refining company to crack into resin product.

These resin product now is in elevated price and on high demand, supply to plastic maker, automotive part maker, healthcare maker (syringe, face shield, mask, swabs for nasal/mouth testing, glove maker (nitrite glove, vinyl glove)

Asia
Supply was tight in Q3 due to the planned and unplanned outages in Asia. The influx of deep-sea cargoes from Europe had also dwindled due to the resurgence in demand in Europe. Disruptions in BD supply in the US due to weather-related issues further curtailed global supply. Demand in Asia exceeded supply as the downstream synthetic rubber plants in Asia increased their operating rates following the reopening of most Asian economies in Q3.

Demand strengthened as economies in Asia reopened after their lockdown measures were eased or lifted following the decline in coronavirus infections in most Asian countries. The downstream synthetic rubber plants in Asia ramped up their operating rates to meet increasing demand for end-products such replacement tyres, footwear or industrial belts. China’s automotive industry, the world’s largest car market, continued to show increased sales and production, underlining strong demand for synthetic rubber.


Europe
Supply continued to be heavily cutback to offset the still very much below normal demand levels at the start of Q3. Some unexpected cracker outages also served to reduce any surpluses. Towards the end of Q3, there were signs of improved operating rates driven by improvements in spot export opportunities, particularly given the limitations ex-US due to hurricane disruption.

Demand slowly but surely started to pick up. Inventories down the chain were eventually drawn down and synthetic rubber producers were able to ramp rates up. Supply driven demand in Asia saw a pick-up in BD as well as synthetic rubber exports and sentiment in general was much more positive than in the previous five months.



US
Supply was largely sufficient to meet contractual obligations as demand remained subdued because of the pandemic. Spot availability was tighter because one of the largest producers, BASF Total, had its cracker down for a large part of the quarter. This halted export activity. BD production was mixed as some crackers had outages but operational units were yielding more BD than in Q2, when significant co-cracking was taking place amid sidelined BD demand.

Demand rose as tyre producers ramped up their operating rates, following widespread closures during Q2 because of the coronavirus pandemic. Replacement-tyre demand was stronger than expected as tyre producers replenished their inventories of after-market tyres. Demand for other end-uses such as nylon and ABS lagged as automakers were slow to ramp up their operations. Demand was strong in Asia, but tighter availability due to some unexpected outages halted US exports to the region.

No need insider, pastic maker already said clearly that their feedstock resin in on rising...

Resin price is now about US$1,000 per tonne, compared with about US$800 per tonne three months ago.

“This increase has spurred panic buying of resin-based products. We expect the sales of our flexible packaging materials to improve by 5% to 10% this fourth quarter, compared to the second and third quarters.

“From March to July, resin prices hovered between US$680 per tonne and US$800 per tonne. Resin prices have risen because of the hurricane season in the US that has halted the production and export of oil

strong demand for resin from the automotive, footwear and household sectors that have caused the ethylene feedstock price to stay high. We expect resin prices to stay firm until December

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/10/12/slp-sees-strong-demand-for-packaging-materials

Still have some time before Q result release, significant marked up price will happen, its a matter of time as cup and handle chart already form., bullish chart already affirm

Once cup and handle confirm, a strong marked up will follow, sending price to RM 2.80 and RM 3.00 later

Firmly stand above RM 2.40 is crucial to affirm cup and handle chart

The good thing about Lctitan is good corporate practice, uphold minority shareholder interest. There is no long term incentive that grant FREE share ,no cheap ESOS, nor private placement at discount etc to dilute shareholding. Management instead opt for dividend reinvestment plan to rectify public spread issue

Its a very bullish chart

The chart seem cup and handle formation

Price level is more important after Q result release. It will be re-rating price

slowly and steady moving up ahead of Q result

either as soon next week or by end month

awaitng for Q to release very soon

Power 'ON'

add all balance bstead at 64.5-65sen

Resin sale volume hike + resin price hike = Lctitan profit hike

sold back jcy at 74sen

Resin price is now about US$1,000 per tonne, compared with about US$800 per tonne three months ago.

“This increase has spurred panic buying of resin-based products. We expect the sales of our flexible packaging materials to improve by 5% to 10% this fourth quarter, compared to the second and third quarters.

“From March to July, resin prices hovered between US$680 per tonne and US$800 per tonne. Resin prices have risen because of the hurricane season in the US that has halted the production and export of oil

sold back Dpharma at 3.63

strong demand for resin from the automotive, footwear and household sectors that have caused the ethylene feedstock price to stay high. We expect resin prices to stay firm until December