In upcoming Q result, bjcorp will record massive net gain RM 480m after tax from disposal four season hotel in japan, nett EPS= 9sen. Theses monetize asset worth RM 1.87 billion in total will improved bjcorp financial strength significantly. Bjcorp have consistently buyback share, accumulate almost 6% in treasury now.

sold all samchem at 72.5-73sen

bought bjcorp at 20sen

sold back luxchem at 69-69.5sen

Very well written, clear with counter check and proven calculation.

Today, added last batch paramount at 73-73.5sen

add more samchem at 67-68sen

bought samchem at 68.5-69.5sen

sold back elsoft at 69sen

sold back all at 72.5sen

bought elsoft at 67sen

bought D&O at 68.5sen

bought luxchem at 63.5sen

The worse of Krono share price have over after take into account recent Q loss due to ONE OFF impairment. The 5G and storage data management is still a key theme in 2020.

add more krono st 53sen

bought krono at 54.5sen

Sold all jaks-wb at 77.5-78sen

sold back all jaks at 1.07-1.08, await for Q1 result to be release these week

I believe pbb analyst own feedback is utmost important instead of make so many assumption here. Hope to get reply soon, stay tune,

Dear DK66

I alrdy forward two article written by you and Ehome009 to seek pbb analyst comment and feedback.

The payback period Is about matched with Jaks management guideline......Jaks' CEO Andy Ang has indicated during the recent AGM that the power purchase agreement and hence earnings estimate of JHDP was formulated on the basis of 6500 annual utilization hours.Therefore, management guidance of 8 years payback period and 12% IRR were based on 6500 annual utilization hours.

DK66
Your way of presentation is even clearer in these article, well done

Today, swap loss making cypark to Jaks at 1.06-1.07 and Jaks-wb at 76-77sen after reading Ehome009 article

Force to cut loss at 87-88sen, trend reversal.....

Kronologi is one stop solution data management for genomics, bioinformatics and medical imaging, servicing from data capture to analysis to archive and beyond. The tiered storage from Kronologi help scientists turn genomics, bioinformatics, and medical imaging data into knowledge. Due to massive screening covid case, lung imaging and demanding tracking, there are huge amount of data is generated. Krono cloud storage and analysis at ever high demanding

wind_00

Please take note, only paramount have MASSIVE gain on its education business worth more than its current market price > 72sen/share. Even if take into account special dividend 29/share payout, paramount still nett off handsome profit. The share price is irrational as it failed to take into account such massive impact change on paramount fundamentally.

Paramount share have been bashed down irrationally after ex for special dividend 29aen/share. With unbilled sale > RM 950m + annual recurring interim and final dividend, yield > 9% + back by strong NTA RM 2.60. The downside risk is very minimum, but, the upside recovery is much higher with incoming final dividend 4.5sen to be declared next week after end of MCO.

DK66, my portfolio already in cypark, solar and waste to energy power concession. Jaks COD will only start in Q3 as indicate by your article earlier due to pandemic, right?

DK66, I will come back to Jaks after Q1 result release, the reason is Jaks in short term will face financial stretch due to pre- opening expense for its new pacific mall and new pacific office tower. Longer LAD and higher evolve mall and delay in IPP construction progress due to pandemic, all added burden to Jaks financially. I not only cover good prospect of its IPP in 2021 onward, but also take into account short term setback face by Jaks in 2020.

Due to that fact it is long term 25 year concession, the higher the specification of supercritical plant, the higher the amortization and depreciation + higher operation cost + maintenance service to upkeep equipment. These all factors will offset supercritical plant higher efficiency. Without carbon tax incentive, the nett impact on profit is minimum

The point is that whether or not the same banker evaluate Vinh Tan 1, project cost USD1.75b vs. JHDP project cost USD1.87b based on their supercritical plant vs. subcritical plant OR based on power plant 12% project internal rate return?

The financiers for JHDP are the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank Corporation and Export-Import Bank of China, same bank panel as Vinh-Tan. but, Mong Duong II financier are total different, nil china own banker, all western bank, korean and japan bank due to fact the plant majority own by US company

The financiers for JHDP are the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank Corporation and Export-Import Bank of China, same bank panel as Vinh-Tan

Dear DK66

Vinh Tan 1 thermal power debt financing panel, total USD 1.40 billion (80% financing cost for project cost USD 1.76 billion)

Bank of China: USD233m
China Construction Bank: USD 233m
China Development Bank (CDB): USD 233m
EX-IM Bank of China: USD 234
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC): USD 233m
Other Sinosure Bilateral: USD234m

https://ppi.worldbank.org/en/snapshots/project/Vinh-Tan-1-Coal-Plant-7247

Vinh Tan 1 thermal power debt financing panel, total USD 1.40 billion (80% financing cost for project cost USD 1.76 billion)

Bank of China: USD233m
China Construction Bank: USD 233m
China Development Bank (CDB): USD 233m
EX-IM Bank of China: USD 234
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC): USD 233m
Other Sinosure Bilateral: USD234m

When will the Vinh Tan 1 thermal power plant start generating profits?

Operating under the BOT format, the project boasts around $1.75 billion in total investment capital, 80 per cent of which is sourced from a consortium of several international banks. If the project runs smoothly without any hitches, Vinh Tan 1 Power Co., Ltd. will be able to pay off all debts and start generating profits 18 years after the plant starts commercial operation.

https://www.vir.com.vn/vinh-tan-1-gearing-up-for-operation-61958.html

Dear DK66

Aside focus on comparison between Vinh Tan 1 USD1.75b supercritical plant vs. JHDP USD1.87b subcritical plant ( the net differentiate is minimum given Vietnam government have no carbon tax to incentivize supercritical over subcritical), can you also look at different financing impact on earning. If no mistaken, Vinh Tan 1 is under 80:20 debt to equity financing vs. JHDP 75:25 ratio. In additional, the taxation incentive offer for Vinh Tan 1 vs. JHDP ( tax free for 4year, 5% for next few year , thereafter 10% till end 25 year concession)

Dividend 4.5sen will announce after end of MCO as Paramount auditor unable to sign off paramount annual report due to MCO delay. Paramount will announce both dividend entitlement, audit annual report and AGM date as soon as end of MCO next week.

Upcoming Q1 result will record paramount MASSIVE gain on its education business worth more than its current market price > 72sen/share, increase its NTA to more than RM 2.60.

Remark: Paramount is VERY LUCKY to divest majority its secondary private education arm before the hit by pandemic virus, lock massive disposal gain and monetize its assets into liquid cash reserve

Cypark biggest cash generating waster to energy power plant is commissioning soon after completed trial operation end of Mar.

Power plant is debt intensive business and are most sensitive to interest expense. BNM cut 50pct point will save Cypark a very big finance cost, translating into higher profit margin and EPS

Technically, jaks still on uptrend, bullish signal.

It is check and balance in turn of analyze Jaks to not only cover good prospect of its IPP in 2021 onward, but also take into account setback face by Jaks in 2020.

Dear DK66

Up to last quarter result, Jaks still have outstanding commitment RM 220m balance for its 30% stake entitlement in IPP. Do you think the balance construction profit is enough to cover all these commitment?

Jaks in short term will face financial stretch due to pre- opening expense for its new pacific mall and new pacific office tower. Longer LAD and higher evolve mall operation loss also added burden to Jaks financially.

Dear DK66

You have share important profit generating prospect on Jaks IPP, but Jaks also own many other loss making asset still yet to take into full account. Jaks assets in Malaysia is worth RM 600m including evolve mall and upcoming pacific mall and pacific office tower. The new mall and new office tower need high occupancy rate in order to achieve operation breakeven or risk of impairment goodwill if continuous operation loss.

Although Jaks control 51% stake, the other 49% is control by Jaks CEO Andy. Jaks as listed company and have power profit can still offset loss making mall and office tower, but CEO Andy at his capacity may not be able to stand such continue loss. Earlier in last Dec, Andy already opt to gradual transfer some office tower unit and car park lot to Jaks to offset his debt. There is risk for Andy to transfer more loss making investment properties to Jaks in order to absorb continuous loss.

Since goods news already share many here, There are some bad news too many yet to highlight. in the next 2 quarter result, Jaks likely to record loss making quarter.

1. Q1 result (Jan - mar): Vietnam power plant construction activity resume only end of Mar after CNY. Therefore, in Q1 , Jaks only able to record 1 month construction progress profit.

2. Q2 result ( April- june): The Malaysia full impact in MCO on Jaks property development and investment properties will
be recorded. More LAD and higher loss in mall operation.

Also take note that as IPP at tail end of construction, Jaks still have outstanding balance RM 220m to settle for its 30% equity stake need to settle.

Risk and reward

Revise earning for 2020 due to more LAD resulted from MCO, tail end of construction profit from Vietnam power plant and higher evolve mall loss. In additional, jaks still have USD 52m (RM 220) outstanding commitment payable for its 30% stake in IPP. In view of tail end of IPP completion, these outstanding funding either raise through more bank borrowing, fund raising or arrangement to make defer payment through future power profit with CPECC.

Revise earning for 2021 is possible too if take into consideration continue higher evolve mall operation loss, additional new Pacific mall and new Pacific office tower if both also incur operation loss due to low occupancy rate. The continue loss in these properties also subject to risk of impairment in accounting.

Although Jaks control 51% of these properties, but another 49% is control by jaks CEO, Andy. The risk is if Andy cannot hold longer its 49% in these properties due to loss, it may opt to sell 49% back to Jaks. These 3 properties assets are worth RM 600m.


Reward is that Vietnam power plant is at tail end, unit 1 is ready for reliability test, follow by COD. The second unit should be ready after 6 month. In total, the full impact on power profit will be recorded in financial result release on May 2021.

Risk and reward

Revise earning for 2020 due to more LAD resulted from MCO, tail end of construction profit from Vietnam power plant and higher evolve mall loss. In additional, jaks still have USD 52m (RM 220) outstanding commitment payable for its 30% stake in IPP. In view of tail end of IPP completion, these outstanding funding either raise through more bank borrowing or defer payment through future power profit.

Revise earning for 2021 is possible too if take into consideration continue higher evolve mall operation loss, additional new Pacific mall and new Pacific office tower if both also incur operation loss due to low occupancy rate. The continue loss in these properties also subject to risk of impairment in accounting.

Although Jaks control 51% of these properties, but another 49% is control by jaks CEO, Andy. The risk is if Andy cannot hold longer its 49% in these properties due to loss, it may opt to sell 49% back to Jaks. These 3 properties assets are worth RM 600m.


Reward is that Vietnam power plant is at tail end, unit 1 is ready for reliability test, follow by COD. The second unit should be ready after 6 month. In total, the full impact on power profit will be recorded in financial result release on May 2021.

bought all cypark at 91-94.5sen with all capital and leverage up all margin line

sold back all jaks at 1.06, free up all capital and margin line