be patient, the longer jaks stay above key level > RM 1.00, building up solid support, gaining momentum to breakout immediate resistance at 1.05-1.06, once broken, jaks will heading to 1.10-1.15 next level

be patient, the longer jaks stay above key level > RM 1.00, building up solid support, eliminate downside risk, the high odds upside jaks to breakout next level at 1.10-1.15.

IPP project risk

1. Sovereign risk - Vietnam economy is least affected by pandemic covid due to much early prevention step taken. Its economy growth remain at positive growth. Electricity demand is growing steady due to trade war and global strategy relocation manufacture plant. Political and economy stability have greatly reduce Vietanme government sovereign risk

2. Foreign exchange risk - Vietnam government have given undertaking to guarantee IPP power profit is USD denominated. However, some minor foreign exchange risk did incur as power profit is only exchange at end of each month in which Vietnam currency ratio may differ within 30 day in each month.

3. Investment return risk - the PPAs stipulate that IPPs would be paid a fixed capacity payment regularly in exchange for making an agreed electricity capacity available. Should VTN buy the electricity generated, it would then pay energy charges which would also have been fixed in the agreement.

VTN would also be obligated to cover the difference if the price of fuel used to generate electricity rises beyond the agreed price in the PPA. This arrangement of VTN completely bearing the fuel cost risk and these arrangement is guarantee y Vietnamese government

All IPP profit generated are USD denominated and tax free for first 4 year after COD, follow by 5% and thereafter 10% till 25 end of 25 year concession


4. Financing risk - project already funded and completion at tail end now


5. Joint venture risk - CPECC is fortune global 500 and is China state own with vast experience. It have been successful executed the project and power plant is scheduled for trail run with commecial operation by June 2020.


6. legal risk - PPA framework have been throughout examine by stringent banking system to finance project cost and undertaking with endorsement and guarantee by Vietnam government

Market in profit taking mode, jaks bullish sign encounter setback, BUT, overall, cup and handle chart remain intact. More time is needed to solidify base above RM 1.00.

With the closing price at 1.04, the cup and handle chart is formally establish now. Barring unforeseen circumference, jaks share will GAP UP to above RM 1.10 - RM 1.15 range tomorrow.

Technically, Jaks share now is on track to build up to form cup and handle chart <---- a very bullish sign

In stock market, many stock have diversified business segment and its normal that no ALL business segment are profitable. Take for example, defensive stock like YTLP, its power plant 3100 MW in Singapore incur loss due to non-concession and competitive market, its local small power plant 560MW is profitable due to extended concession for another 3 year. It business in Yes network is loss making but is more than enough to cover by its biggest profit segment in UK water concession.

Of course, jaks local property investment like evolve mall and incoming star Pacific project still pose challenging due to operating at loss level and incur LAD till end of June 2020 before hand over to purchaser.

The property investment loss and LAD can be summarized in DK66 article link below.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-27-story-h1483998942-Jaks_Resources_Q4_2019_results.jsp


The upcoming 30% stake in IPP profit projection can be summarized in DK66 article link below. Please take note, the power profit is USD denominated in which profit is subject to currency exchange ratio + all profit is TAX free for first 4 year after COD.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-03-03-story-h1484685319-Jaks_Resources_A_Wild_Estimate_Based_on_Vinh_Tan_1_s_Abbreviated_Result.jsp

In short, after nett off local property investment loss, the IPP profit is still at net profit above RM 200m or EPS= 30sen. Even if take into VERY serious scenario in which MCO continue in force and mall continue closed, another additional potential expense cost and impairment incur -RM 70m, Jaks still able to nett off profit RM 130m or EPS 20sen

Q1: Why Andy Ang not buying more?

A: Based on annual report, Andy Ang only earn annual salary about RM 1.868m. Take note, Any have NO director fee. Only non-executive director entitle director fee RM 60k per annual. As Jaks concentrate its financial resource to complete power plant, there is no dividend declare to shareholder.

Thus, without dividend entitlement + director fee and with such modest annual salary, Any Ang have limited financial strength to continue buy share in open market.

But, Any already through previous jaks grant option, fully utilize grant option to entitle more share in jaks. However, such grant entitlement is at Jaks expense, but, these is nonrecurring grant option at least within 5 year due to one off fully utilization.

In essence, the PPAs stipulate that IPPs would be paid a fixed capacity payment regularly in exchange for making an agreed electricity capacity available. Should VTN buy the electricity generated, it would then pay energy charges which would also have been fixed in the agreement.

VTN would also be obligated to cover the difference if the price of fuel used to generate electricity rises beyond the agreed price in the PPA. This arrangement of VTN completely bearing the fuel cost risk and these arrangement is guarantee y Vietnamese government

All IPP profit generated are USD denominated and tax free for first 4 year after COD, follow by 5% and thereafter 10% till 25 end of 25 year concession.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-04-20-story-h1506044437-Jaks_Resources_Risk_assessment_by_CPECC.jsp

Remark: NOT all power producer have such lucrative power purchase agreement. Tje for example, YTLP in Singapore power plant have NO PPA at all, is non concession, bear own risk in generate power and subject to competition in open market. These scenario also similar to Genting power plant in China, is non concession binding, therefore, no profit guarantee. Mudajaya power plant in India despite have BOT agreement, but, the risk is NOT guarantee by Indian government.

Possible last chance to buyback jaks at < RM 1 today before IPP start trial run, follow by commecial run to generate maiden power profit.

leverage up from margin line, bought all jaks at 99sen

add last batch jaks at 1.01

sold back teoseng at 1.11-1.12

bought back Jaks at 1.04

bought bjland at 19sen

sold back jaks-wb at 80-81.5sen

sold back all cypark at 88sen

leverage balance, bought back cypark at 82.5sen

Leverage up, add all jaks-wb at 77sen

bought back jaks-wb at 76-77sen

Proposing to build slag waste disposal site of BOT Thermal Power Plant
WEDNESDAY, 4/15/2020 13:07:29

The BOT Thermal Power Plant project has implemented 90% of the construction and installation volume, preparing to test unit 1 but the slag dump of the project has not been built.

The Provincial People's Committee has just proposed the Prime Minister to consider and agree on the policy of constructing slag waste dump of the Hai Duong BOT Thermal Power Plant project (Kinh Mon) invested by JAKS Hai Duong Power Company Limited.

So far, the BOT Thermal Power Plant project has implemented 90% of the construction and installation volume, preparing to test unit 1 but the slag dump of the project has not been built.

The location of the slag disposal site is located in the beach area of ​​Kinh Thay River, at the foot of Sau Mountain. The slag dam barrier is 150-400 m from the edge of the river, about 600 m from the connection point between Sau Mountain and the right bank of Kinh Thay River, about 400 m downstream. Slag reservoir is located in Sau mountain valley.

https://baohaiduong.vn/kinh-te---tieu-dung/de-nghi-xay-bai-thai-xi-nha-may-nhiet-dien-bot-133744

bought teoseng at 1.05-1.06

bought back paramount at 71-72sen

Locked all profit first

sold back all Dsonic at 99.5sen

sold back all jaks at 99.5-1.00, locked all profit, deleverage margin to nil, keep portfolio all in cash

DK66

The coal have loaded in coal transmission system to transport coal power. The coal will ground into a fine powder by a pulverizer is then blown into boiler, burn produce heat that turns water into steam, which then turns turbines in a generator. The generator spins and produces electricity and connect to national grid to meet country electricity demand. These pre-run testing will last for 36 hr for reliability test, if all parameter meet optimization, fulfill requirement performance, then it can start commecial operation. estimate time frame can be as soon as next month May for first unit to start commecial operation. http://www.aepc1.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/4/12/art_14631_2102511.html

The installation of a large number of equipment in the power plant Hai Duong project is gradually in place. The project construction has entered the stage of single-unit debugging and pre-startup inspection. The coal transportation system and main equipment in the main plant have been loaded with coal and oil

KEYWORD: 海阳项目主厂房内大量设备安装逐步就位，项目建设进入了单体调试和整套启动前的检查准备阶段，主厂房内输煤系统和主体设备已上煤和带油....

leverage up, bought Dsonic at 90.5sen

leverage up, add more jaks at 93.5sen

Dear OTB

Every strategy have its strength and weakness. The higher odds than probability can be achieved through your analysis on technical point of view + >30 year stock investment experience + fundamental studied as underlying base + business sense on IPP (e.g Jaks). Keep up your good job in helping your subscriber to better manage their stock portfolio, your sincerely and honestly cannot be value on mere subscription cost 1k.

Dear reloy

It is no fair to OTB to judge him on change tone on stock pick. These is because OTB already disclaim that his method is technical come first, fundamental second. Exactly due to these method, the technical is influence by daily news and momentum keep change in response market sentiment, oil and stock market all fluctuate on daily basis, therefore, OTB have studies thoroughly technical chart and try to extract these information based on technical point of view and on short term basis.

bought back jaks at 96sen

Portfolio cut all myeg at 97.5sen, deleverage all margin line. Cut loss first, to re-enter later on weakness

Leverage all margin, all to myeg at 1.00

bought all myeg at RM 1.00

Locked all profit already, now portfolio in full cash position and deleverage margin line back to nil.

sold off all jaks at 89sen-89.5sen, lock all profit first

Italy reported the slowest rise of new deaths in two weeks on Sunday. France and Spain – two other European centers for the virus – also reported a deceleration in new deaths

On Sunday, 24774 new cases and 1151 new deaths in the United States, lower than Saturday 34196 new cases and 1330 new deaths.. The state of New York, which leads the nation with about 122,000 positive cases, on Sunday reported 594 new coronavirus deaths, or a decrease from the 630 reported on Saturday.

4805 new cases and 681 new deaths in Italy. The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy

The target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear

An estimated 30,000 lives have been saved as an effect of the lockdown measures, according to Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS).

Remark: US lockdown is 2 week behind Italy, therefore, US will heading peak level in next 2 week before subside alike Italy today now.

Unit 2 now at final stage for chemical cleaning.

公示发布日期：2020-03-27 公示期截止日期：2020-03-29
公示内容：
中国能源建设集团安徽电力建设第二工程有限公司，就越南海阳#2机组化学清洗施工工程项目通过邀请招标方式进行采购，按规定程序进行了开标、评标、定标，
现就本次采购的中标结果公布如下：
一、采购人名称：中国能源建设集团安徽电力建设第二工程有限公司
二、采购项目名称：越南海阳#2机组化学清洗施工工程
采购项目编号：APCC2-GC-YNHY-2-2020-001
三、采购项目内容：
四、开标时间：
五、成交信息
标段:#2机组化学清洗施工工程 中标人：广东科林化学清洗有限公司 金额：1200000.00元
六、联系事项：采购人联系人： 联系电话：

Fully focus on jaks with all buyback jaks and full leverage up margin at 85.5-86sen, fully concentrate back on jaks

Good clinical trial outcome on covid Vaccine

https://www.chinapress.com.my/20200403/%e2%97%a4%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%a4%a7%e6%b5%81%e8%a1%8c%e2%97%a2-%e9%a6%96%e6%89%b9%e7%96%ab%e8%8b%97%e7%bb%93%e6%9e%9c%e5%85%ac%e5%b8%83-%e5%bf%97%e6%84%bf%e8%80%85%e5%8f%8c%e8%82%ba%e7%ba%b9%e7%90%86/

Leverage all margin too, all at 85.5sen

Bought back all jaks at 85.5sen

cut myeg at 95.5-96sen

sold back cypark at 80.5-81.5sen