1.在另外一个贴已经解释如何算FKLI的合理价，算到八月FKLI的合理价，再算九月FKLI的合理价，那么把八月的减九月的，就是那个Spread的合理价了，八月和九月的合理价会因为KLCI上下而波动，但是上就一起上，跌就一起跌，所以Spread的合理价就不变。

2.市价就是八月的市价减九月的市价。

1.要算九月的股息造成多少点的调整，就要预测九月里有什么公司会有股息除权，可以参考往年的股息记录。先要知道每个指数股在综合指数里的比重，不必很准的，去FBMKLCI-EA这只ETF的公告就可以算到了。

不明白你说的“是一直往上走的？”

你先明白以下：

1）A先生有很多现金，看好市场，他想投资股票，他有两个选择，
1.1）拿钱去买股票，
1.2）拿一点钱去Long期货FKLI，剩下的钱拿去赚利息。

2）B先生只有一些钱，也看好市场，他也想投资股票，他也有两个选择，
2.1）利用Margin/借钱去买股票，
2.2）拿一点钱去Long期货FKLI。

3）C先生有很多蓝筹股，看坏市场，他想卖掉股票，他有两个选择，
3.1）把全部股票卖掉，
3.2）Short期货FKLI。

以下的因素影响他们如何做决定：
1）买股票能领取多少股息？
2）把钱存在银行能赚到多少利息？
3）借钱买股票需要付出多少利息？

借钱和存钱的利息全年都是不会变动，除非国家银行加/减息，
所以关键是在股息，未来的股息大家只能猜猜而已，或者当着是和往年一样。

可以啊，请问。。

当然，如果明天股市涨回去，那么将会打回原形。

如果上个星期五，我们不偏向看好，也不偏向看淡，

就在0.025买了400000股C7F，然后抛空6张FKLI，

那么今天的结果是：

1）C7F这部分，亏了0.005*400000 = 2000

2）FKLI这部分，赚了6*50*15 = 4500

不错嘛！

Will Anwar Ever Become PM?

The answer is : Very Unlikely.

RainT,

How did you get 2.5%?

Interim and Final Dividend were 2.0 sen and 2.9 sen,

DY = (2.0+2.9) / 80 = 6.1%.

No harm waiting if the dividend is good.

NAIM drop 9 cents now, DAYANG should drop 2 times 9 cents, i.e. 18 cents accordingly once it open at 10am.

In general,

Company Share Buy back = Company Pay Out Dividend,

Both will reduce cash in the company.

Just ignore those minor differences.

One minor difference is Company Share Buy Back will make the EPS Growth look better, when compare to Company Pay Out Cash Dividend.

1) Cash flowing out from the company.
Both dividend payment and share buy back will cause a certain amount of cash flowing out.


2) Let say you own 1% of that company, your ownership will become 1.11% after a 10% share buy back. You can sell that extra 0.11% ownership in open market.

Company Share Buy Back + Sell part of your share = Company pay dividend


3) Let say the company pay dividend, and you use that amount of money to buy more share.

Company pay dividend + You buy more share = Company Share Buy Back.

The company has announced the final dividend of 2.9 sen, a bit disappointed, why couldn't they just make it to 3.0 sen? May be because of the land purchase. Anyway, with the interim dividend of 2.0 sen, the dividend yield of higher than 6% is good for investment.

As he was selling at 0.31, my guess is the price will be trading in the range of 0.20 to 0.40 for quite some long time, very unlikely to go up beyond 0.40,

I bought at 0.365, sold at 0.355,

Now thinking of buying back....

vivabursa

As a property developer, TAMBUN has to replenish their land bank, this is part of the game, or else how to continue building houses?

No worry about the holding cost, as the land value will appreciate from time to time, due to inflation and depreciation of Ringgit.

The longer they hold the land, the higher profit margin they will get when they sell houses or vacant lots next time.

kyy_superinvestor

Because they are township developer.

Before they develop that particular township, the land there was still very cheap, so they bought them cheap, then when the township was developing, the land market price would start going up.

Most TAMBUN's projects are of landed property, the major value of the house is land, construction cost is very much less compare to those high rise condo.

So, profit margin is high.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/6121101

The lands are to be bought at 625K per acre.

Cheap or expensive?

Some excitement for tomorrow trading?

TAMBUN今天公布，其子公司（70%股权）以1.31亿买了209.54英亩，等于每英亩625千，地点是目前的Pearl City的南边隔壁，

便宜吗？

Letsrock

是的，所以股价从高峰跌了很多下来，要看老板的能力了。。。

bb0808
没有研究，所以不清楚。

Investor 999,
不必劳烦你了，这个股交易量不大，不适合你这位大老板，
你买卖一次5百万股，去买那些大交易量的股票吧。

TanK0318

Not really cut loss, as I already made 3 cents profit from WA earlier.

No bad news, just that I want to switch to TAMBUN.

Sold all my SAPNRG.

Bought at 0.365, sold at 0.355.

Add coal please, not enough steam already.

1st Round:
Bought WA at 0.110 when SAPNRG was at 0.340.

2nd Round:
When SAPNRG was at 0.365 and WA at 0.14,
Sold all WA at 0.140 and took profit of 3 cents or 27%,
Then immediately bought SAPNRG at 0.365, but quantity was about half of WA's only.

Now:
Hope for SAPNRG up up up . .....

Aiya.....drop back to 0.350/0.355, not enough steam already, please someone add coal to it.

"In addition, the real money in Hire Purchase Loans, is not in the rate, its in the penalty payable for early repayment. The cars they do hire purchase for, Japanese and Continental. These are the people with money and are most likely to change car every 4-5 years."

The above para of this writing may not be correct.

In the past years, I have done a total of 3 early repayments with different banks/finance companies.
There was no penalty at all.

How car loan early repayment is calculated?
1) Calculate the Rebate,
2) Minus this Rebate from future total instalments, and pay it.

However, I found out that one Singapore bank does apply penalty on car loan early instalment. What it does is to minus only 80% of Rebate, in another word, the penalty is 20% of Rebate.

I am not sure, but I guess Bank Negara will not allow any bank to apply such penalty.

SAPNRG is a high risk high return company, it should not weight more than 10% of your investment portfolio. When I found that the WA was very cheap compare to mother share (0.11 against 0.34), I decided to take the risk and bought some WA, then who know the WA went up very soon to 0.14 against 0.365, I sold all WA and bought back SAPNRG, the quantity is about half of my WA quantity, so I am still making some money unless SAPNRG dropped to below 0.305. I read its annual report, know that they can do big jobs like pipe laying, underwater inspection (ROV) and drilling which DAYANG has no capacity to do. And for all the jobs that DAYANG are doing, SAPNRG also can do and in fact is doing. The thing I look at SAPNRG is their order book, when the order book is depleting, any company will bid low to ensure the company has something to do, but when the order book is high, then no reason the company continue to bid low. So from the 17b order book, may be the earlier part is with low profit margin, but the later award must be with high profit margin. May be theae one or two years, the company will still be losing money. If you have the patient to wait, then buy and hold.

When the company order book is high, logically they will not bid cheap for new jobs, but if the order book is low, the company will bid cheap so that at least they have something to do.

Take example of Hibiscus North Sabah (Barton, South Furious, St. Joseph)

Before a rig come to a drilling platform or jacket platform, some preparation jobs need to be done:
1) Erecting mud wall and shed to prevent drilling mud splashing all over the place.
2) For remote jacket where the instruments are operated by gas, it has to be converted to operate by air during drilling. When the rig come, they just connect their air supply to the temporary connection.
3) Some isolation to drain and vent system.
4) Some structure and equipment need to be temporary removed as it may cause obstruction to the rig,

Hibiscus will ask a detail design consultant to come out with drawings and scope.

Hibiscus then will pass these drawings and scope to DAYANG.

DAYANG will base on the drawing, come out with a document called WORKPACK, detailing how the works to be carried out, manpower and duration required for execution by a workboat or site team.

The above is called Pre-Drill Activities, to be executed before arrival of rig.

Then the rig come and do drilling.

When drilling completed, rig go away.

Then DAYANG will go to the platform again to do the followings: (WORKPACK should have been done much earlier)
1) Post Drill Activities, reinstate the platform to the normal mode of operation.
2) Well Tie-in, connect piping and instrument for the newly drilled well


Why cant the rig also do these Pre-Drill, Post Drill and Well Tie-in jobs?

Because rig is much more expensive than workboat or site team.

The coming Q4 (Nov/Dec/Jan) might not be good, I guess small loss or small profit.

But later on Q1 and Q2 will be good.

Appreciate if any one can tell me which other Oil and Gas companies in Malaysia own drilling rigs?

Thanks

https://www.thestartv.com/v/petronas-rigs-in-malaysian-waters-to-increase

Petronas said the number of rigs in Malaysian waters will be around mid 20s compare to about 15 last years.

Who will benefit from the additional rigs? Most probably to give to GLCs

1) VELESTO: They own 7 rigs, but according to their annual report, the utilization rate already gone up to 95%, so most probably will only maintain that percentage.

2) SAPNRG: According to Q3 Media Release, they said only 7 out of 15 rigs are working, 8 rigs are still standby at high sea? Most probably SAPNRG will benefit most. Let assume out of that 8 standby rigs, SAPNRG will get 6 rigs hired. A rig will generate revenue of roughly 400K per day, then the additional revenue for SAPNRG = 6*0.4m*91 = 218m per quarter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_options_pricing_model

Also read from the above wiki.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJls_RgTniw&index=4&list=PL4108D90CA93915EB

If you want to understand how to calculate fair value of warrants,
Watch this Youtube many many time, until you understand.

Do you know why I never say here about call warrants of SAPNRG?

Too expensive!

The Implied Volatility (IV) of them are very high, the lowest is around 100%.

As I said before, when WA moving up faster than mother share, probably some fund managers tell their girl friends/mistress to buy WA first before they use their fund money to buy mother share.

Year to Yesterday, Velesto has gone up 64%. So it is logical to sell Velesto for SAPNRG.

The interest rate MUST go down.

If not, EPF and PNB will have big problem to pay out high dividend at year end.

James Ng,

看完了视频，之中有人提起BKAWAN，麻烦你去深入探讨这间KLK的母公司，

作长期投资的话，小散户没有必要买KLK啦，买BKAWAN更划算，

连KLK的大老板和属下聊天时，都叫他们买BKAWAN，不要买KLK，

Valid for 21st March 2019

Input Volatility = 45.7%
SAPNRG = 0.34, WA Fair Value = 0.147,

What if Volatility = 55%
SAPNRG = 0.34, WA Fair Value = 0.175,

What if Volatility = 35%
SAPNRG = 0.34, WA Fair Value = 0.111,

Volatility may change, and has great effect on WA Fair Value.


And what if I input the expiry as 23rd July 2025 instead of the actual expiry 23rd January 2026?
Volatility = 45.7%, SAPNRG = 0.34, WA Fair Value = 0.139,

Why must I input the expiry 6 months earlier than the actual expiry?
Because when come to 6 months before the actual date, may be (I am not sure) people already not interested in WA, because of the troublesome of converting it to mother share.

Valid for today only:

If SAPNRG is at 0.35, WA's Fair Value is 0.155,

For every one sen SAPNRG move up or down, WA's Fair Value will move 0.7 sen accordingly.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/198495.jsp

Refer to his conclusion.

Why must he reacted in such a way, wasn't it good for him if he was still accumulating the share?

Logical thinking,

he is not accumulating any more and waiting for the share to go up and dispose.

The latest Historical Volatility (HV).

1) Last day 1 to Day 30, HV = 41.2%
2) Last day 1 to Day 60, HV = 45.5%
3) Last day 1 to Day 90, HV = 47.4%
4) Last day 31 to Day 120, HV = 48.7%
5) Last day 61 to Day 150, HV = 57.7%

What I normally do is to take away the highest i.e. 57.7%, then calculate the average of the remaining 4 data, so I get 45.7%.

I will input this 45.7% into my calculator.

1) SAPNRG = 0.36, Volatility = 45.7%, WA Fair Value = 0.161.

But, what if I input different volatility into my calculator.

1) SAPNRG = 0.36, Volatility = 35%, WA Fair Value = 0.125
2) SAPNRG = 0.36, Volatility = 55%, WA Fair Value = 0.189

When I wrote my post on SAPNRG-WA.

SAPNRG = 0.34
WA Fair Value = 0.146
WA Market Price = 0.11
Fair / Market = 0.146 / 0.11 = 133%, A lot of meat.

Now,

SAPNRG = 0.36
WA Fair Value = 0.161
WA Market Price = 0.145
Fair / Market = 0.161 / 0.145 = 111%, Not much meat already.

Whether you buy mother share or warrants, you are hoping the company can perform well.

If the warrants calculated to be a better choice than mother share, buy warrant.

If otherwise, buy mother share,

This is a better mind set.

When I wrote my post "Buy SAPNRG-WA instead of its Mother Share",

SAPNRG was 0.34,
SAPNRG-WA was 0.11,

Right now
SAPNRG is 0.36, up only 2 sen since then,
SAPNRG-WA is 0.145, already up 3.5sen.

By right, when SAPNRG is at around 0.3X, SAPNRG-WA should go up only 1.4 sen if the mother share SAPNRG go up 2 sen.

So, there must be something interesting.
1) Big boys about to buy SAPNRG heavily, or
2) The insiders know the QR to be made good looking, so buy SAPNRG-WA.

Sorry, all these are just logical guessing, I dun have evidence.

If not, you just explain to yourself why WA go up while mother share going down.

Same to those KLCI heavyweight counters, before the managers go in to buy heavily for their funds, they might ask their proxy (girl friends etc) to long FKLI.

I guess only.

The fund managers ask their proxy to buy WA first,

They will use funds' money to buy SAPNRG after their proxy have accumulated enough WA.

This is why you see WA price go up, mother share go down.