Input required to the option calculator.
1) DY=0%, No dividend since many many years ago.
2) Interest Rate=6%, I normally put 6%~8% for good and big blue chip companies.
3) Volatility=82%, get from last 90 trading days.

a. Fair value for WB is RM0.0277.
b. Fair value for WC is RM0.0735.

But I think investing in this mother share will not get average 6% return p.a., so what if we change this Interest Rate to negative 10%, we get:

a. Fair value for WB is RM0.0216.
b. Fair value for WC is RM0.0584.

Actually I dont know how much the Interest Rate to be input to the calculator for this company, it all depend on the quality of the company/management.

At first I read BKAWAN's boss bought 9.5M shares of BKAWAN on 14.12.2016 at the price of RM17.57, then later I read FELDA sold 10M of BKAWAN on the same day, no mention of the price. So most probably FELDA sold directly 9.5M shares to BKAWAN's boss, and the money (around RM176M) is for part of High Eagle purchase? Dont know who else bought the other 0.5M shares.

第六行，“这里该放未来两个月的平均Volatility”，改为“这里该放未来两个星期的平均Volatility”

第五行，“因为Underlying是下个月结算的期货”，改为“因为Underlying是这个月结算的期货”

我看的方法是：

1）找Long的月份，红点低过红虚线，所以12月和1月的红点都是比红虚线低约1点多，可是我觉得12月就快要到期了，所以选1月来Long。

2）找Short的月份，红点高过红虚线，所以选6月份的。

以上的选择就形成了Long Spread FKLI-JAN17 JUN17。

哈哈。。我是一个懒惰的人，所以只玩FKLI，不想多忙在FCPO。

Dont trust Not-So-Rich families.

目前只玩Spread，因为风险比较低，而且看起来我的方法行得通。

不能放在同一帖，因为相隔一个星期的时间呀。

我的一张spread是9.54*2=19.08，不好意思，让你误会了。

manji,

1) The FFB production will not change significant in short time.
2) The planters can short FCPO if they really think that the current high CPO price will not last long.

To ride on the current high price, you can look at this:
1) Check the planters' FFB production in mT.
2) Divide it by planters's market cap.
3) Those with highest value, will be more sensitive to CPO price chenge.

You see my calculation, the 25 years old tree will next roll to zero year. I am not sure whether my assumption is correct or not, or may be after the old tree chopped down, need sometime before replanting can be carried out. Anyway, I think it will not cause so much difference.

On Earning Growth aspect, GENP is currently the best, but we have to bear in mind, no matter how young the oil palm trees are now, they will grow older in a few year time.

You see from my calculation, the growth in the 4th year for GENP is slowing down to 3.2%.

So my opinion is BKAWAN is still the cheapest plantation company right now.

However, BKAWAN has not issued any company warrant, but on the other side, GENP-WA is trading at discount, I said in the earlier post that the fair value for GENP-WA is RM3.48, which is very conservative as I put 4% for the Interest Rate.

I should have put 6% or 8%, which will give its fair value at RM3.75 and RM4.02.

The Interest Rate in warrant calculation is actually referring to the predicted average return for the mother share, i.e. price increase plus dividend.

So, if you prefer mother share, go for BKAWAN, if you dont mind to buy warrant, you go for GENP-WA.

I have both BKAWAN and GENP-WA.

shareinvestor88, I am sorry I dont trust small and medium size companies in Malaysia. I never look at Innoprise, so no comment.

哈哈。。他可以请专人解释给他听的。。。

I think FA or whatever A, all can not be applied to the small and medium size companies in Malaysia, the not-so-rich bosses can not be trusted, they tend to drill holes at the drawers.

My long investment target are those big companies owned and managed by the very rich families.

I am just wondering, is it legally OK to give our password to someone to trade for us? And of course the other question is, is it legally OK to get password from someone and trade for him?

My opinion is never get or give password for any purpose, what for looking for trouble?

shareinvestor88, I dont trust small companies.

I checked the details of BPLANT's 2Q2016, there was one off gain from land disposal. If we were to exclude this one off item, the EPS might be less than 1 sen.

If I were to include those middle size plantation companies, then the chart will have too many lines. Someone who is interested in small and mid cap companies could make their own study and monitoring.

Last Friday Budget, Najib proposed research on small and mid cap companies, also GLIC will allocate up to 3 billion to fund managers to invest in these small and mid cap companies.

Good news to the investors who like small and mid cap, their share prices may fly.

calvintaneng,

Are you talking about this Neoh Choo Ee & Company Sdn. Berhad, I have no idea. I would like to hear from you the details and reason why Dynaquest bought them.
Anyway, Dynaquest gave 3.5 Combined Rating only, and the production is not so much at the moment, may be increase due to young trees?

MHC is also too small, I am not interested.

CBIP is more like a service provider to oil palm industry, I dont think they big estate land. I must say CBIP is a very good company.

speakup,

I check that BPLANT is not really big, its production is about the same as UTDPLT.

I see they pay good dividend, and for 1H2016, the EPS is already 8.76 sen, so both PE and DY look good.

The problem is Dynaquest gave BPLANT a Combined Rating of 3.0 only, a bit too low,
we need to study more about this company.

For small cap company, need to check integrity of the major shareholders/directors.

Now with GAMUDA-WE at 1.35, it is better to buy GAMUDA at 4.86, or dont buy any of them.

imoogi99, I did try to input 28%, and get the fair value of 1.44 too, I think the calculator is not very accurate on this, especially when the % is high.

I make my own binomial calculation using excel spreadsheet, I found that the calculation of fair value are accurate to within plus minus 1%.

So you can rely on this calculator.

imoogi99, By definition, the Implied Volatility (IV) means "It is implying that the future volatility will be at that % if this warrant market price is fair". I am not good in explaining, you can google and find out proper definition.

IBanker, You will have your answer if you understand how binomial method calculate. I am not going to explain to you because you are rude. Go to MENSA and take an IQ test if you have balls, then show me your score.

Let say FKLI go up 1 point,
For holding short 1 contract of FKLI, you make loss of RM50, or RM100 per 2 contratcs.
For holding 1 unit of C48, you make profit of RM1/700, or RM100 per 70000 units.

The Big Fund's NAV is only around 1.00 now.
In order to pay out high dividend, the NAV ideally should be at least around 1.07 end of this year, or else the NAV will go below 1.00 ex-dividend which I think nobody like it.
So I predict the index will be at least above 1700 level on the last trading day.

这篇文章误导人。。

他猜净利20M至30M之间，我却猜是净利120M左右，差别那么远，有趣有趣，看到时候开出的成绩是多少。

他说目标价是2.76，我呢觉得1.00都算贵。

For Choice #1, you can look at FBMKLCI-EA, it is an ETF tracking closely KLCI Index, but I did not monitor this ETF, dont know got volume or not.

Or forget about #1, simply choose from among #2, #3, #4 and #5. And my this article is in fact talking about Spread, i.e. short #3 and buy #4.

I dont predict the movement/direction of Index, what I do is to compare the following alternatives.

1) Buy a basket of index counters, i.e. KLCI, and expect to receive dividends.
2) Buy FKLI July, no dividend, so for fair comparison we have to add all expected dividend ex-dated from now to End July.
3) Buy FKLI August, no dividend, so for fair comparison we have to add all expected dividend ex-dated from now to End August.
4) Buy FKLI September, no dividend, so for fair comparison we have to add all expected dividend ex-dated from now to End September.
5) Buy FKLI December, no dividend, so for fair comparison we have to add all expected dividend ex-dated from now to End December.

Then choose the best choice.

1）Not really understand your question. Take the month of August, the blue point was 1657.5, add up estimated dividend of 6.5, so the red point was 1664. At present, the dividend for whole year is around 50 points, so this 6.5 points is not an average, it is based on estimation of all dividends likely to be ex-dated in August.

2) The blue points were all the market prices, meaning to say it is result of human behavior which is unpredictae, so most probably it will not repeat next year, further more the whole lot of players would not be the same.

1) Monitor all the dividend ex-date of the 30 index counters, assume same as previous year.

2) Not sure, but I think No.

cherry88,

We look at FKLI Sep, it is now at 1663, base on this as the underlying, the fair value of C54 is 0.1033, it is still a bit more expensive.

The reason why we use FKLI Sep instead of KLCI (now at 1672) as the underlying is because FKLI Sep is the market consensus that the KLCI would be around 1672 by End September.

In this case, we can choose to be a gambler, or alternatively just choose to take the small arbitrage gain. Should we go for arbitrage gain, then it would be real good news if the index go higher than 1700 by end of the month, the higher the better.

For arbitrage purpose, The correct mixture is 2 contracts of FKLI and 66700 units of FBMKLCI-HW.

But the annual 1.5% fee is 6m++, what a joke!

Papayashot, no answer from me.

I think Maybank's 1st Qtr result was quite good.

The operating profit before impairment loss was 2772m against 2498m of last year 1st Qtr, an increase of 11%.

The only problem was the impairment loss of 865m. Will there be more and more impairment loss for the near future? I dont know.

Anyway, Maybank is a company that must not fail, all parties must work hard to ensure that it is profitable.

It weights 20% in ASB porfolio.

作者不清楚EPF计算盈利的方式。
EPF是不计算Paper Gain/Loss,所以只要EPF套利多一些涨价了的投资，又继续收起跌价了的投资，那么盈利方面就好看了。

At this uncertain time, go for blue chips of:

1) Export orientated.
2) Consistent Dividend Growth.
3) Dividend Yield ~ higher than KLCI's DY.
4) Price Earning Ratio ~ lower than KLCI's PE.

Maybe sell from left (1) to right (many, so that less than 5% each, no need to announce).

There are 3 islamic bond listed in BURSA that you can buy, The return is around 4% plus, depending on at what price you buy. Their codes are 0400GA, GB and GC, all these 3 bond are guaranteed by Malaysian government.

Kuan sold 21.8m PA yesterday.
He still holds 19.3m (17%) mother share.

Now the largest shareholder is Greenfield (Director Lim Yoon Loy and partner), Greenfield holds 32.3m (27%) mother share and 220m (44%) PA.

Dont know Innofarm holds how many mother share, could be between aero to 4.99%, as they are no longer major shareholder, no need to announce any change in shareholding.

He still has 19.7m mother share.

Kuan Poh Huat sold all his PA on 11th May.

So far they have only collected 7m plus from conversion.

The value of a option/warrant depends on:
1) Higher gear higher fair value.
2) Lower dividend yield higher fair value.
3) Higher mother share volatility higher fair value.
4) Higher mother share ROI higher fair value.
5) Longer CW life higher fair value.

Therefore you need option calculator, otherwise dont touch.