my mental Dragon balls[park] was RM5 Billion losses by HRC already

today my excel spreadsheet confirmed RM5.4 Billion losses by HRC = matches RM5 Billion borrowings by HRC to cover sinkhole aka losshole

personally I think RM10.8 Billion losses by HRC is quite likely and cannot be ruled out.

Post removed.Why?

I have refined HRC "almost Guaranteed" future punya losses to quite close.
If not almost guaranteed why did HRC borrow RM5 Billion?

'and discovered why HRC wanted to borrow RM 5 Billion" coz those figures quite match

using latest QR data

@10% Interest rate
[quite likely by all experts from US Investment Banks as interviewed by Bloomberg]

=> assume 80% borrowings per Contract
=> assume 3 years hedged

for sales 100% Hedged the swap rates will cost
3 years Total => RM2.856 Billion
average per year => RM 0.952 Billion

for purchases 100% Hedged the swap rates will cost
3 years Total => RM2.52 Billion
average per year => RM 0.840 Billion


Conclusion =>
at very likely 10% US Interest Rate the 3 Year Total Additional Losses from Hedging = RM5.4 Billion

at very possible 20% Volcker Fcuk US Interest Rate the 3 Year Total Additional Losses from Hedging = RM10.8 Billion

when HRC executed those Long Term Futures Contracts Nobody ever imagined that USD interest rates will be high.

now nasi jadi bubur => need to borrow RM5 Billion to standby

Please note that long term futures hedges are extremely dangerous in High Interest Rate Regime like a Volcker Fcuk

you would borrow 80% of any contract coz notional value is only 20%

means interest rate of 20% will be applied to 80% borrowings for 3 years

=> Guaranteed Bankruptcy, no kidding, you do the maths yourself

thats why HRC needs to borrow RM5 Billion just to survive ....

Post removed.Why?

Raider

for fixed term Futures Hedges, buy early is cheaper sometimes not always
Market Maker fixed price cheaper coz you pay more swap rates

so at report date its unrealized gain/loss pertaining to future periods as long as possible 10 years later.
[you wanna buy, Market Makers will give you a Quote]

putting inside current year PnL will be fake results since its 10 years later punya effects

Raider

I already explained above

////Rightfully Hedging losses should flow thru P&L mah!///

my understanding is that

realised hedging losses flow thro PnL as part of purchase or sales where applicable
realised gambling hedging done unrelated/unconnected/unidentifiable to specific purchases or sales will go to a one liner that is part of PnL [I would call this gambling profits/losses, cough cough]
unrealised hedging losses of all types flow thro Comprehensive Income

sslee
ok
Dr Google has limitations especially self-medication with over the counter OTC drugs be very careful

sslee
offhand
I believe diesel is more alkenes than alkanes, major component is actually Napthalenes
Napthalenes are essentially complex multi-cyclic aromatics essential unit benzenes build up together not cracked yet

////Diesel is made of alkanes with a chain length of between 12-23 carbon atoms.////

sslee

Thats Chemical Engineer Ignorance for you.
Petrol composition of
Esso => 60% Benzene [This later became PetronM]
Shell => 40% Benzene [This later became HRC]
the whole class got plus minus few % variance

Benzene vs alkanes is like Elephant and Giraffe.
You just cannot mistake the differences

Just where did you get your info from?
I personally tested this via Liquid Gas Chromatography in University of Malaya, Chemistry Department

=> Petrol had been benzene since Rockefeller days punya Standard Oil

Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 2:32 PM | Report Abuse

Just some correction to MM ignorance on refining yield
Petrol is made of a mix of alkanes and cycloalkanes with a chain length of between 5-12 carbon atoms. Diesel is made of alkanes with a chain length of between 12-23 carbon atoms.

17 minutes ago

can ask taxi drivers
or nite club girls

or visit Bossku at Kajang Prison
or Kak Ros

BobAxelrod

I don't go around pasar or coffee shops. No drinking sessions with uncles and aunties for tips. You got good tips can share ah?

12 minutes ago

conclusion => US Interest rates will increase 50 or 75 basis points in September Meeting

=> bad for refinery hedging

that begs the question
how can refineries make profits if Petrol is FREE ?

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/Z777hoqr/?symbol=NYMEX%3AD1N1%21

=> but of course, these are Tulip trades which does not exist in real life, its a Gambling Trade.

the underlying reason
is most likely that Refineries had ran out of money to pay for hedging trades "notional value"

Even HRC is making arrangements to borrow RM5 Billion via Medium Term Notes.
This illustrates the extent of how Refineries had all become money addicts since the Ukraine War started.

SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD FUTURES climbed up from -0.637 to 0.789

essentially Petrol is FREE
coz Refineries have no space to store petrol anymore

these FREE petrol thingy only happened on 31 August 2022 Merdeka Day free gift.
This caught Syndicates with deep shock and surprise
coz it happened while they are busily pumping HRC share price up for dumping purposes.

Hence general public dumped PetronM and HRC today 01/09/22

Post removed.Why?

derivative losses
increase by USD rate 4.5 to 5.5
increase by swap rate USD interest rate increase
increase by crude oil price increase

I would say comparing with Dragon punya balls [park] size RM3 Billion final realized loss is quite likely

sure
no worries
I will propose to Gobermen to take over HRC for RM500 Billion
or alternatively
HRC can takeover Petronas for RM1.00 deemed paid plus RM500 Billion compensation for agreeing to manage Petronas.
Thats how things work in Bolehland

wink wink


Posted by BobAxelrod > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

i3lurker, not meant to spoil your party but I'm actually hungry for more.....wink!

Commodities Futures Gambling loss can increase or widen by many multiples of above 1 until contracts are closed

thats why HRC decided to borrow RM5 Billion

Bob

many aware
but also not aware that the unrealized loss is at Balance Sheet Date 30/06/2022

=> it does not register in mind that the 30/06/2022 unrealized loss can triple to above RM 3 Billion later ... later

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

HRC could end up with a RM 3 Billion derivative loss based on my understanding of oil market today.

=> RM0.10 per share

thats why Syndicates desperately dumping HRC shares just like TG
thats why Dragon is here for the blood sucking

forget about complicated definitions

Notional Value => see above example USD18,000.00 initial payment to start Gamble

Notional Value money is all gone
and its RM billions in losses unrealized Market Value

the notional value is what you pay at start of Gamble
[in example above given by me its the USD18,000.00 initial payment to start Gamble]
1=>
the market value had already been given
and its Unrealized loss RM Billions
the unrealized loss likely to double or triple to more RM Billions

2=>
dun forget its all USD
USD => 4.5 to 5.5
another 25% more RM billions mari mari



////Remember the outstanding refining margin swap notional value as on 30/6/3022 Is USD 226,945,000.////

dun forget

Global Excess Refinery Capacity
Global Excess Gloves Supply
Global Excess Prostitute Supply
Global Excess Vaccine Supply
Global Excess Chips Capacity
Global Excess Dragons
Global Excess Office Space
Global Excess Coffee Shops
Global Excess Air Planes
Global Excess Smart Phone Capacity
Global Excess Streaming Services
Global Excess Mobile Capacity

and lastly
Global Excess Politicians, need to send some to jail

Dragon mouth full of blood from HRC forum

Global Excess Refinery Capacity
Global Excess Gloves Supply

Post removed.Why?

If you love PetronM and HRC
you should also buy up all Malaysian Gloves
Die Faster Mah

Global Excess Refinery Capacity
Global Excess Gloves Supply

Global Excess Refinery Capacity
Global Excess Gloves Supply

no wonder Dragon is very busy

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

thats what PSAi3alert said
after HRC bought Shell Refinery at RM1.80 per share, magically profits went up. "cough cough"
and Syndicates cooked the share price to get magical profits



Posted by ks55 > 39 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Recall how much PPB making every year from wheat and sugar futures. Why PPB could make so much from these commodities? Simply because it was the largest downstream end user in Malaysia, and one of the major commodity trader in wheat and wheat just like Glencore.

HYR is just a small fry in oil industry. If HYR is a big player in upstream like Shell, Exxon or BP, it will make sense to hedge or lock in profit as and when appropriate. Profit recognition must take into consideration market value of crude oil inventory. Many big oil companies will factor in Replacement Cost Profit in their financial reporting. How about HYR?

IMPORTANT Conclusion

Dragon went to TG coz smelt blood => Global Excess Gloves Supply

Dragon came to HRC coz smelt blood => Global Excess Refinery Capacity

IMPORTANT Conclusion

next week will drop more

Pengerang is on stream
Global excess refinery capacity.

=>some say crack spread has dropped, thats true coz more supply than demand mah.

=> sslee says crack spread is still good,
sslee forgot that these are Tulip prices due to HongKong uncle aunties prostitutes Ah Qua Taxi drivers buying Tulip Crack Spread mah

HRC is paying triple costs

I I were management of HRC,
I will just sign up long term crude supply contracts, very easy to do.
and sell products futures.
means only 1 Hedge is done.

Instead you have
Hedge crude
Hedge crack
Hedge products

looks like HRC is a gambling lottery company.

I believe Syndicates purposely make this HRC thingy more complicated when its actually very very simple to obscure the real reason for the HRC share dumping.

3 basic rules

Do Not Hedge [hedging is very very expensive]
Global refinery capacity is increasing, even Pengerang restarted => Heng Yuan profits under threat
Global products demand will not keep pace with refinery expansion => Heng Yuan profits under threat

Totally no reason to buy HRC shares unless you pray to Satan for some refineries to go Kaboom like Pengerang did....

:)

As a Chemist I would say its diesel.

Chemical Engineers are never sure ...

//////Note: I am not sure whether the long residue catalytic cracker can selectively crack the Long residue into Diesel or Petrol/////

sslee

i3lurker becomes market maker
and
DEALS many lots of Crack Profits to sslee who SOLD all up at USD20.00
sslee all in
coz sslee thinks its a good deal
because sslee SOLD
it means any price rises is a LOSS case.

i3lurker then arranges for sslee clone in alternate parallel universe to buy
sslee clone pumps all Tulip Cracks Contracts to USD50.00 each
real sslee cannot pay the margin call in those Tulip Contracts.
real sslee account collapses

when contract matures sslee clone in alternate parallel universe arranges for price to close at USD20.00 again

QED

ps
whether sell or buy syndicates can pump or dump Tulips at their whims and fancies

its love and sunshine will be ok

Post removed.Why?

sslee

of course there is an ending
when Market Maker compares Tulip Market price with actual Crack reports filed by refineries to example say EIA.
This is all defined inside contract.

the price difference between Tulip and Real Case as reported to EIA is paid out in cash whether profits or losses

sslee

these are Tulips Crack Profits

there is the real Tulip price ie actual physical crack profits

and

tulip Tulip Crack Profits which are invisible

If I become market maker I can sell you Tulip Crack Profits at USD20.00 when actual refineries are making losses
you can buy these if you want to.
these Tulip Crack Profits which you bought at USD20.00 from me can go up in value to USD2,000.00 per contract just like BitCoin
Tulip CRACK Profits figures has no connection to actual refineries happenings due to HUGE number of gamblers buying it,
Ah Soh, Ah Qua, Prostitutes, Massage Girls and Taxi Drivers in Hong Kong also can buy Tulip Crack Profits.

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

dun confuse yourself

the contracted amount and total no. of contracts for Crude, Crack Rate and Products are the total HRC exposure assuming all becomes zero

theoretically all prices can become zero since its market forces
and people may need cash immediately so dump all 100% irrespective of price (example Forced Sale)

as I said before

Crack rate gamblings are all cash
say you buy USD20.00 crack rate at 1,000 barrels per contract size lot

If I am the Market Maker at Morgan Stanley <=> I take your bet and pocket USD20.,000.00 X 0.2 margin = USD4,000.00
If you have an account at Morgan Stanley you can apply to be Market Maker and receive money from HRC
so HRC monies enters your pocket.
wink wink

at end of contract period ..........either you pay me or I pay you.

its a Gambling bet between Market Maker (You lah) and the Hedger (HRC)
so better pray HRC makes silly bets