Stocking up some at 1.22 for medium to long term. Will trade if the price range allows.

Headwinds against AirAsia abating
September 16, 2015, Wednesday

KUCHING: According to market data provided by Bursa Malaysia on regulated short selling, daily short value on AirAsia Bhd (AirAsia) has reduced from a daily average of RM706,000 in the first week of September to RM335,000 in the second week of September.

MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd’s research arm (MIDF Research) noted that this is also a major improvement from RM1 million to RM2 million average seen in previous months.

“We also believe that short sellers have been covering their positions by buying back the stock as share price rose 60 per cent off its RM0.77 low, typical in a short squeeze situation,” it said.

According to the Jakarta Post, Indonesia AirAsia’s (IAA) shareholders have agreed to convert its accounts payables into Redeemable and Convertible Preference Shares (RCPS) which is the first hurdle in its efforts to reducing its payables to AirAsia and raising its equity into positive position.

Currently, the proposal is awaiting approval from the Indonesian Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM).

“We believe that completion of the corporate exercises could lift a major overhang over the stock as IAA’s weak balance sheet position has been a major concern for investors,” it opined.

The Indonesian transport ministry has lowered the price floor for domestic flights to 30 per cent of an ascribed price ceiling from 40 per cent previously.

The move will bode well for AirAsia as it had recently focused on serving international routes as domestic routes had become uncompetitive due to the imposition of higher fares.

Thus, with the price floor returning to 30 per cent of the ceiling, AirAsia could move some of its excess capacity to serve domestic trunk routes.

In the aftermath of the horrifying bombing in one of Bangkok’s busiest districts, the Thai Tourism Ministry stated that average daily tourists arrivals fell by 17 per cent from 85,000 to 70,000.

“While we opine cancellations and flight deferments are a given due to concerns on safety, we however believe that the impact will likely be less pronounced and prolonged than the political/civil unrest situation seen previously.

“In addition, the tragedy could be isolated as no terrorist group has claimed responsibility thus far.

“Adding to that, we believe that one overhang over AirAsia’s share price performance year to date is the weakening of the ringgit against the US Dollar. We estimate that 64 per cent of operating expenses are US Dollar denominated.

“As eight per cent of operating costs are hedged to reduce the impact from foreign exchange volatility, the impact of every five per cent drop in the ringgit equals to an increase in operating cost by three per cent. Separately, 73 per cent of its US Dollar borrowings are hedged,” noted MIDF Research.

“We believe that average fares will begin trending upwards as the frequency reductions and fare rationalisation exercise by Malaysia Airlines Berhad (MAB) takes effect in 3Q15.

“In addition, the discount between MAB and AirAsia’s ticket prices are seen to have widened from 10-20 per cent in 2013-2014 to a more reasonable 20 per cent-30 per cent as MAB prices its tickets more akin to a full service carrier. This could be a positive streak for AirAsia as stubbornly low yields (RASK) has been a major impediment to its profitability.”



Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2015/09/16/headwinds-against-airasia-abating/#ixzz3luo1PMsh

I do not agree with this government intervention in our stock market. What is the point, what are the objectives? To boost our market up, push prices up, why? Is it a healthy thing to do? Do we have a serious market crisis on our hand? I don't think so. No doubt there are a lot of factors weighing down our stockmarket. Please treat the causes, not the symptoms and no thanks for the steroids.

If they can scrap together the RM20b to pass onto Valuecap, let us hope the money will be properly and well utilised, if you know what I mean.

Wellington Management Company is a private, independent investment management company. The firm has client assets under management totalling over US$904 billion, and serves as investment advisor for over 2,100 institutional clients in over 50 countries. Assets are invested using a broad range of asset classes and investment approaches. The company invests in the public equity, fixed income and alternative markets all around the world.

In 1928, Walter L. Morgan, a Philadelphia-based accountant, established the first balanced mutual fund in the United States. He established WMC despite the market crash of 1929. In the 1960s, four investment professionals, W. Nicholas Thorndike, Robert Doran, Stephen Paine, and George Lewis took the leadership of the firm and refocused the business. In 1979, 29 original partners bought back the firm—believing the private form of ownership to be in the best interests of clients.

The company's London office was opened in 1983, Singapore in 1996, Tokyo and Sydney in 1997, Hong Kong in 2003, and Beijing in 2007.

Wellington Management has a presence in nearly all sectors of the liquid, global securities markets. The Wellington Fund is one of the oldest surviving American mutual funds. John C. Bogle, who succeeded Morgan as chairman in 1970, later founded Vanguard funds. Wellington Management also manages the Wellesley Income Fund, which is a more conservatively allocated sister of the Wellington Fund.

There are actually 3 components based in the USA, 1 in Bermuda with the same USA address and 1 in the UK.

I had a quick check on one set of filings of a mid-August trading day. It appears that the selling were by the USA and Bermuda based components and the recent buying by the UK based component.

These Wellington chaps wear shirts with many sleeves and pockets.

Does not matter. They are associated entities and act in concert. The component that actually makes the transaction records the direct acquisition or direct disposal, and each of the other associates record the indirect acquisition or disposal. If the total group's holding of a counter exceeds 5% of its equity, they all have to file a record of the transaction as required under the regulations.

Wellington Group net acquisition on 9 Sep was 20m according to filings.

I shall lay back for the next 2 or 3 days and watch on the sideline. I'm not in a hurry since the mist hasn't cleared up enough yet for me.

There are many bogeymen aroundif you havent noticed. Issues within AA that have been raised and being addressed by the administration, falling currencies,local politics, China, Europe n the refugees at their doors, commodities and oil crisis,terrorism, potential flashpoints in our regional neighbourhood, to name a few obvious ones.

I am sorry you took my friendly reminder in this fairly bullish run-up negatively. It is not to spook anyone, just a reminder. I wish everyone of us happy trading.

I have had 3 good rounds. Now I just want to see how things will pan out between now n 23c. It is a significant milestone, one where shortists may be squaring off and exiting in which case, we may see a temporary and mild reversal and thereby opportunity for medium and longer term investors to come in to stock up.

I see easy upside up to RM2 especially when just about all local analysts are recommending BUYs with targets way above RM2.

I am still in the market. If there is a reversal, I should have another good trading round. If not, I shall collect gradually in smaller blocks on price weakness up to RM1.50 before outcome or solution of IAA's licence and related issues.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/06/23/negative-airasia-report-revealed.html

As reported on CNBC on 23rd June 2015, "GMT advises selling or shorting AirAsia stock, saying its fair value is 1.23 ringgit a share or less".

Well, shortists had been shorting and stockists selling as advised. As we near the price level indicated bt GMT Research as the fair value more than two months back, should we not be expecting a temporary lull in AA's uptrend or a reversal? Afterall, the market has been behaving very much as dictated by GMT's advices so far.

Sold all my latest holdings at 1.08, 1.09 and 1.10. Thanks again, market.

Last week, foreigners were 48.8m net buyers on Tue, and 268.4m, 202.7m and 209.2 net sellers on Wed, Thu and Fri respectively.

Wellington Group bought AA on Tues 1st Sep.

I think CANI9906 meant the DowJones Futures Index. Just now it was down 129 pts.

http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com/index_files/DOWFUTURES.htm

As filed yesterday, Wellington Managenent Group still had a 9.069% Indirect/Deemed Interest in AA as at the end of 28 Aug 2015. That is 252.4m+ shares.

At 31 Dec 2014, they had 388.5m+ shares or a 13.5% holding in AA.

Great trading ground, AirAsia. All trades profitable so far and all outstanding positions in the money.

At these levels even if trapped, still considered a good investment to hold. Perfect trading ground.

Bought at 87c on Monday, 83c and 78c yesterday, and 80c today. Sold everything today for cool profits.

Will do more trading in the coming days.

I wonder whether we should take special heed of VT's saying that he himself can't believe it (that BJCorp is worth RM3b)?

Perhaps some people are a little upset that Calvin has not yet decided to launch 'Operation Tong Sampah' which he said he would do when the price drops to 35c.

When their hard earned money is put to investment risks, I suppose people should be entitled to change their minds and move the goal posts in light of the changing conditions in highly volatile environments.

In doing so, they may make more or less money, or lose less or more, who is to know? There is an element of gambling involved.

"Today, Berjaya Group is worth RM3bil and I myself can’t believe it", VT said according to an article dated 15th August 2015 in Malaysia-Chronicle - 'OH THAT VINCENT TAN IS A FAILURE!' Dr M's loyal pal tells how hard work & luck made him a billionaire

Based on a worth of RM3b, the price of BJCorp is approximately 69 to 70c a share.

The reported net asset per share is RM1.5863.

At 36c a share in the KLSE, just buy some more lah.

Cyohua,
Sorry, I was out of phase by 1 month. The correct days were 29/06, 30/06 & 03/07 and the acquisitions were 4,250,000, 1,597,300 & 1,152,300 units respectively. The closing prices were fairly in the mid-range of each day which I used to arrive at a weighted average price of 40.4 sen. It is not necessary an accurate estimate because the correct figures are not disclosed. Pardon me for the confusion.

The acquisitions are announced on the KLSE Website. Select; Category: Changes in Shareholdings, Sub-category: Changes in Sub, S-hldr's Int, Company: Berjayz Corp Bhd. Then hit Submit and go to latest 2 VT's shareholding changes announced on 3rd & 9th July 2015.

Go to i3investor.com, hit Stock Quote, search bjcorp-, you will see the 4 active call-warrants, CT, CU, CW & CX, listed at the top of the dropped dialog box, search each of these on your brokerage online trading platform for profile info which gives you all the ipo detais of the CW and search stock info on the same platform too to give you the current outstanding status of the CW.

In the same dialog box above, you also can see a continued list of loan stocks, LC & LD, detachable warrant WB and newly converted ordinary BJCorp shares, OA, which are not entitled to FY15 dividend and the coming AGM voting rights. The profile and stock info can be found in the online platform as above.

You have to doubke check the info by cross-checking with the KLSE website for correctness because sometimes there are typo errors or outdated info.

Pleased to share.

Wow, 77.62% discount off the NTA at 35.5c. At this price, the market capitalisation is less than $1.54b.

BJCorp's shares in BJToto alone are worth more than $2b.

Cyphua, I just looked at the historical trading records of those 3 days which were narrow ranges of 38.5 to 39.5 twice and 38.5 to 39 once. So it cant be far from this estimated figure.

Sori, a typo correction ...

The average price of the 7m shares should be around 39c.

VT bought a total of 7m BJCorp shares on these three days, 29/07, 30/07 & 03/08. The average price he paid should be around 30c.

Four blocks of call warrant remain outstanding, totaling 165m issued units, all out of money currently and expiring at vafious dates before the year is out.

Outstanding loan stocks ICUL-LC are 583,444,131 units including the 211,220,823 units disposed by 3 subsidiaries of BJLand to undisclosed related parties recently. ICUL-LC mature on 31 Oct 2015.

Outstanding number of loan stocks ICUL-LD are 695,552,959 units, maturing in 22 Apr 2022.

There are 700,085,842 units of detachable warrants WB which will expire in 22 Apr 2022.

Total BJCorp shares issued are 4,331,768,408 including 182m treasury shares.

The above figures are as at the end of yesterday.

I think 2016 will be the year of this counter!

I have looked at the Berjaya stable on and off since the onslaught of the Asian Financial Crisis. However, I bought my BJCorp shares for the first time ever in Oct 2014, so I have not been a long time investor here. I am younger than VT and I consider him to be a very shrewd businessman and super dealmaker.

I am yet to see if I am going to make a lot of money investing in BJCorp but I think I shall, one fine day.

Agreed, Tuk. Accumulate.

It is understandable. Most people expect returns that they can see at regular intervals. They haven't mastered the horse stance to handle this counter yet. You need patience and must be able to be detached from the desire to see timetly fruition. Be prepared to pass on to your next of kin. Remember, if you didn't think this counter was any good at one time, you wouldn't have ended up here at all and if you have really changed your mind subsequently, you would have cut your losses a long time ago. Chill.

This time, I think hng33 will go for higher returns. Hari Raya coming.

Yawn, it's the Tom n Jerry show this morning.

Re-positioning. Shaking the tree, hold tight.

I felt a rumble, something moved under my feet.

Keep an eye on VT and related parties' acquisitions of BJCorp shares over a 6 month period and scream when the total heads towards 86m. He just might up the ante for some exciting time ahead.

Wow, a move not so fine. The pace quickens.

The last massive corporate re-structuring exercise which took place from 2003 until Oct 2005, marked by the name change to the current BJCorp, will be exactly 10 years ago, come Oct 2015. During these 10 years, the stock price had peaked @1.87 on 14 Apr 2010 and bottomed @0.38 on 17 Dec 2014.

Incidentally, ICULS-C will be expiring on 31 Oct 2015. Look at these staggering figures. Original LC's issued were 9,794,902,878 units @0.50 each. Current outstanding LC's are 584,448,185 units which if fully converted via a no cash payment option will be dilutive by 292.23m units. Current BJCorp shares issued are 4,331,768,408. Treasury held shares are 182m.

My hunch is there will be no tankuku pain. There has to be a harvest time before the major correction slated to be in 2017/18.

Hey, it's only a hunch.

Don't get me wrong. I am not that disappointed but a 1c dividend has been the minimum expected. We shall just simply tread on as it is a long play. The directors have cautioned for a challenging financial year ending 30.04.2016.

One more year of Teochew porridge

Tony's strategy is to build up market shares in the first few years offering value for money products that come with low fares, reliable and decent services. When he has achieved his targets, he will slowly begin to increase the operational revenue by charging the loyal customers more for services rendered by which time the customers would not really mind paying their favourite airline a little more anymore. Air Asia is still he most competitive airline around.

@Vincent Tan,
The answer is yes.

MANDATORY OFFERS - Trigger point

A bidder triggers the obligation to extend a mandatory offer to acquire all the shares of the target company which he or persons acting in concert with him do not, already own if:

 the bidder, together with persons acting in concert with him, acquires more than 33% of a company; or

 the bidder, together with persons acting in concert with him, holds between 33% and 50% of the voting shares or voting rights, and acquires more than 2% of the voting shares or voting rights in any period of 6 months.


There are two other instances where a mandatory offer is required to be made: acquisition of upstream company and acquisition of between 20% and up to 33%.


Reference:
Malaysia Takeover Guide
Contact
Lee Won Chen
Rahmat Lim & Partners
chen.leewon@rahmatlim.com

Last chance tonight to buy MOLG before they release the next Qtr figures tomorrow night at 8pm our time.

Buy on the cheap now. Good luck all.

I beg your pardon, LD matures in Dec 2022.

BJCorp's price is likely to stay at the low level up to the end of Oct 2015 when the LC expires or when most of the outstanding 586m issued loan stocks have been converted to ordinary shares. Remember there is no interest receivable holding this LC. Conversion is 2LCs:1 Ord Share.

This way liability is reduced by issuing equity in a swap exercise. You can guess who are the people holding these LCs. Probably the same people who want and are keeping the mother share price down.

The other 695m loan stocks (LD) mature in Dec 2012 and pay an interest. There is less need to be creative holding these scripts.

I am positioned to take profit this round. Let it move up some more.

The price of this counter does not move conventionally. Just have to be as stubborn as it is unconventional. No redemption for the core investment block until the hot air balloon stage and, tmeanwhile, build a few trading blocks to take profit whenever opportunities arise.

This way, the wait will be more tenable.

Sorry,... plans ...

Very illiquid.

if you are already holding enough BJCorps around this level, take a short excursion away to look at CHHB. Looks like something is finally rousing.

LKY ready to assume chairmanship of CHHB anytime now And announce pksns for the future?

Cephas