"BountyOfTheBourse Why so many guys every day coming here asking other guys to sell aah "

I know right? Sometimes I wonder whether some of the guys here are big sharks trying to influence the market here, but what's the point of influencing ikan bilis? And the big guys who hang around this board won't be so easily persuaded by them.

@wallstreetrookie ah... you agree but there is volatility but it doesn't affect your investment decisions. That is fair. In fact, I agree with you totally, buy and hold and ignore price swings is one of the classic tried and tested ways to build wealth!
... Volatility isn't an issue for those who buy and hold with cash, especially for someone like you whose entry price was extremely low. ... it DOES matter a lot to those guys who are trading on margin though. It could lead to disaster if a margin trader thinks that TG and SM are stable secure price increase over time shares, cause currently they are crazy goreng shares.

" wallstreetrookie if you want high volatility, go trade Carepls/HLT/Comfort Supermx and TopGlove are for long-term investors"

... now you're talking bullshit lol. Have you even been paying attention to the price movements? SM and TG are in a period of EXTREMELY high volatility. Claiming otherwise is just hilarious. Well, admittedly, some of those other counters are even more volatile.

My personal view? I think that both sides are being far too biased. Saying "UP! UP!" and "DOWN! DOWN!" ... in a sense, both sides are correct, and both sides are wrong.
My call? Gloves are going to be bouncing up and down like a crazy yo-yo. Ridiculous volumes, ridiculous volatility. Retailers panic buying and selling. IBs and sharks doing blatant manipulation.
Indeed, those who say there is a lot of money to be made are almost certainly correct. If your market timing is spot on, you can really make a killing. That's a HUGE "if" though. If you are REALLY good, you can make 20% gain on the uptrend, then switch to the put warrant, and make 30% on the downtrend, and keep on repeating that. And that's with cash buy non leveraged. If you are REALLY brave and confident, you could margin trade and be making maybe 50% compounded gains on every upswing and downswing.
... IF you are really brave, confident... or just stupid and foolhardy.
... when a stock starts the week at RM8 and ends the week at RM8, with daily price movements of over RM1, it's a zero sum game, and some people have made BIG money, while others have LOST big money. (assuming no dividends). Actually, it's a slight negative sum game due to brokerage fees and comission.

Anyhow, at this point, I'm fairly sure there will be a LOT of huge ups and downs. BUT, whether it is gonna be OVERALL up or down, I don't know.
As usual, I will not give any actual advice or opinions whether to buy or sell, that is all strictly your own decision. As always, I try my level best to always post in a "neutral" tone which gives a bit of both sides of the story.

... well, i could be wrong and suddenly the glove shares all go stagnant, hardly any trading, at low volumes. But I SERIOUSLY DOUBT IT. :P

@goldenharvest1

https://prnt.sc/uiyiyv

This was the pre-market queues immediately after that strong earnings report came out. I thought the queues would all be removed at the last second, but, no, the bulk of them went thru. The only reasonable explanation I have is attempt at market manipulation. What do you think?

If you truly believe that this environment of lockdowns, social distancing, increased glove demand, will all continue through 2021, you can also make a lot of money by shorting futures on various stock indexes around the world. Cause this pandemic is causing pretty much the worst global economic recession in history, and if this keeps up much longer, everything gets farked up.

An AMERICAN vaccine is unlikely to come out by October. As for the chinese and russian vaccines, who knows. (and let's just ignore that Indonesian Vaccine)

As for those who say we will still need gloves after vaccine is released... you are right. But let me ask you this: Do you think ASP for gloves will go up, down, or stay the same, after vaccine is released? ... because some people sound as if they are betting that ASPs will keep going up even after vaccines are out.

@i3lurker. I confess my ignorance. Why does, when TG stops growing, PE = 6? So, for instance, if the revenue were to stop growing this month for them, what's the correct target price? :O

@imagine333 thanks so much man. we've all been suspecting that for ages, but it's always good to have 1st hand testimony.

i see "open 8.10, low 7.43, high 8.25", I just scratch my head. one thing for sure... this volatility makes TG currently a "speculative" stock not an "investment" stock. For me anyway. Well, to be honest, I see a lot of people saying "buy and hold", but honestly, I'm a bit skeptical, and suspect quite a number of them are actually speculators. ... One of my friends is holding some TG, and he is true blue investor, when I mention TG price to him, he asked me "do you look at TG price every day?" ... he literally does not look at TG share price more than once a week, maybe once a month. Now that is true "buy and hold".

@junx not that big. this morning trading volume was already 56m. a little bit of selling pressure as some people take profit, but the market can easily absorb 7m shares even if every single one of them decides to sell. ... IMHO, but I could be wrong.

@supersing well TG "only" bought like 30m TG shares total in SBB... as we've discussed here, in order to cover the payouts for supermax-c78, kenanga will have to sell 70m SM shares... and similiar story for all the other IBs, the amounts are too huge, they are going to HAVE to sell off millions of hedged shares in order to make payouts on those warrants.

@talkok I am not going to reveal whether I am short or long TG, nor my position sizes. But, from a completely neutral standpoint, can you explain to me these buy and sell queues at 2:58pm yesterday?

https://prnt.sc/uiyiyv

@talkok. i won't say whether I am long or short position in TG or what my position sizes are. From a neutral standpoint though, please explain these buy and sell queues at 2:58pm yesterday.

https://prnt.sc/uiyiyv

So. 80% hedging means that instead of losing 481m, kenanga only loses 96m. no wait, that was taking 7.79 closing price from yesterday. at current price, over 100m already lo... ... basically, 70m warrants and 1:1 exercise ratio, so every 1 sen movement for them = 700k. (not including
hedging)

@apple, Topglov-c84 is only 330m at this price level though? I named a few other warrants which have bigger payout amounts.

... anyone want to make guesses whether we see MORE stupid 1m sell queues at 2pm pre market? ... I have no idea, I'm just curious whether we see repeat of yesterday. Now that was more than "borderline" price manipulation...

@chamlo depends on their hedging.

not talking about glove, there are 1-2 counters which I want to short, but there's no warrants or cfds or anything out for those. I've been looking for any ways to open a short position on those, but I can't find anything so far, and all the IB i go to say it can't be done. If you could recommend me a platform to short with, I would be very grateful. ... thanks in advance, lurker! Hoping for your good news soonest! post in forum or PM me if you don't want it publicized!

@i3lurker erm, dude, I was serious. If you know an IB or platform that allows short selling, please share with me. I'm not joking, I want to open an account with them. which IB do you use?

I don't know how long the pandemic is going to actually last, of course... but I can clearly say, "I hope it ends as soon as possible".

@humongainz. yeah. I'm hoping that those who are losing on bursa etc are losing money that they can afford to lose. Well, stock losses is just one of those things in life, you win some you lose some.
There's a number of shops in my area that are now closed. Permanently. Some were old timers, some were relatively new.
There's going to be a number of people who are going to default on their loans next month once moratorium ends. Well, hopefully they can get extensions on moratorium.
I have rental properties, and I tried my best to be generous. I gave 1 month free rent (not half rent, FREE) to those who lost their jobs or were unable to work due to pandemic. Then I extended that to 2 months. But I just couldn't extend that on and on and on. To be honest, my tenants who moved out didn't ask to stay, they said thanks for allowing them to stay on and left voluntarily saying they couldn't make rent. Thank goodness for that. ... one of my friends is renting out to a FAMILY. with little kids and a toddler. And they can't make rent due to losing their jobs. ... what do you even DO in that situation as the landlord? (my friend didn't qualify for his country's moratorium so he had to deal with monthly instalments for that rental property SOMEHOW)

I read about people who are losing family businesses that have been running for like 5 generations.

... honestly? I think that's one reason I wouldn't want to go big on gloves especially for the long/ medium term. Because, you are essentially hoping/ betting that the world stays in this farked up state for a long time. While everyone else is saying "I hope the pandemic ends quickly!", glove punters are actually hoping "I hope the pandemic lasts for years to come", and *IF* there is some miracle cure that magically appears and saves us all, tomorrow, all the glove punters will be like "NOOOOO!!!! I DON'T WANT THAT!!!"
When the vaccine comes, I will be able to say, "I am so happy! this is such a wonderful moment in history!" ... will all of you be able to say that? Or will you be one of those saying "dammit, I wish the pandemic lasted a few more years" ?

... basically, they released everyone from lockdown, and it all went to shit, huh. ... i complain about many things about current government, but DARN our health ministry is doing a good job.

While lockdown measures imposed in the spring and early summer pushed the number of new cases in June to an all-time low,

Spain, which has the highest number of confirmed coronavirus infections in Europe at 614,360, according to data collated by Johns Hopkins University (JHU), is reportedly set to announce targeted lockdowns in places where the virus is spreading rapidly, and renewed restrictions of movement on Friday.

I don't know about all these other guys who give public investment advice. But I'll tell you one thing: The reason why I stated that I won't give direct advice "BUY!" or "SELL!" here? ... because if I want to buy, I want to buy it cheap. I think I'm a nice guy, but, sorry, I'm not going to tell any of you to buy a good cheap stock, before I am finished collecting what I want to collect! I don't want you to sapu the bargains before I get them. Similiarly, when it's time to sell, I won't tell you that I am going to sell until I have finished selling. The only exception is for VERY close friends and family, and even that is restricted to those who don't have big mouth that blab news all over the place. If I have insider information, I'm keeping it to myself until I have spent all my cash reserves and bought all the stock I want, before telling ANYONE else. Then I tell my closest people, and then, once they are also done collecting, that's when I *consider* going public.

Anyone who claims that they do otherwise is either a liar or some fairy tale saintlike being.

KYY... he says some points that I agree with, and many points that I disagree with. But I am shaking my head in confusion why someone with years of experience and multi million dollar investment fund is doing margin trades, AND GETTING MARGIN CALLS. (he himself admitted to getting margin called on some stocks)

"2) In fact I'm starting to slowly bottom fish now following Harta chairman reassuring that glove shortage will last for next 3 years. He has been in the industry for more than 30 years and see things that people from outside could not."

Dude. Harta chairman may or may not be correct, but...
if you remember right, back when oil prices went high and O&G counters were skyrocketing, all the O&G top brass were saying oil would not go below $100 for the next couple of years.
During the tech bubble, all the top tech people were saying that the prices were justified.
ETC ETC.

Now, as I said, Harta chairman MAY or MAY NOT be correct here... but just keep in mind that, well, OF COURSE that's what they are going to say. I would be VERY surprised if during boom period some guy says "no no, don't push up my company shares by panic buying, the boom is not going to last". They never EVER say that.
Also... major corporation chairman... politicians... lawyers.... very few of them reached those positions by "being as honest as possible"... it's quite the opposite...

Again, to repeat, maybe 3 years glove shortage, maybe not. I DON'T KNOW. I'm just saying not to blindly trust.

@hengsame nope. When the put warrant expiry comes, they will push gloves up the other direction. ... truly shameless.

@everybodyhuat. ... yeah... well... actually, I was advocating that it was because of vaccine, glove supernormal profit is not sustainable in long term, etc etc. Then I saw this:

https://prnt.sc/uiyiyv

... that is just about as shameless a "I am going to push down the price of this counter, and I don't care if I lose money while doing so" act, as I have ever seen lol.

Last price done 8.71, and those huge queues to sell at 7.17 region... wow. Truly blatant!

@happ12, most of the IBs will cover their positions by buying the mother share. Thus they gain from mother cancels out loss from warrant payout. UNFORTUNATLY, this means that, when expiry date approaches, in order to raise that 481m cash payout, kenanga is going to have to sell (not short sell, but normal sell, period) 70m supermax shares, take the money from selling that, and pay it out to the warrant holders. ... which, of course, will drive down the price.

@shawalrich. those figures I quoted are not "if the price skyrockets"... those are at the CURRENT prices. that's how much they have to fork out. billions of ringgit. ... heck, even if gloves all drop another 50%, they'll still end up forking over a billion, easily.

the amounts are pretty scary, actually. SUPERMX-C77 -> cimb, RM350m payout. SUPERMX-C78, kenanga, 481m. TOPGLOV-C67 MACQ, RM115m. HARTA-C35 RHB, 26m. SUPERMX-C81 RM175m, the list goes on and on and on.
So, yeah. there's many many billions of liability sitting on those call warrants. In a sense, you can start to feel sorry for those IBs. They sold the call warrants for like 10-50 sen or something, and now they have to fork out like RM7 per warrant in some cases.

for those who want to know which days are affected by the various warrant expiry dates and the weighted average days for the price calculation, much thanks to @thewarrantmaster for his helpful chart

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/trading_warrants/2020-09-13-story-h1513467113-Take_Research_Reports_with_A_Pinch_of_Salt_Glove_Warrants.jsp

whether you are buying, selling or holding, it's a pretty good idea to keep that chart in mind!

oh, BTW, those who hold kenanga might want to take what I just said carefully under consideration...

and that's just ONE warrant. Looking them over... there are many billions of dollars in payouts riding on those call warrants. ... are you REALLY surprised that MALAYSIA BOLEH and IBs are pushing down the prices? (oh and expect the reverse to happen when those put warrants are near expiry)

@shawalrich87
@hengsame


http://prntscr.com/uiyiyv

look at the sell queues.

There are big sharks in play who are so desperate to push down the prices, that they are willing to sell at a loss. Or risk selling at a loss.

FYI, 800k x RM1 loss is only 800k ringgit. ... These investment bank, glove warrant liabilities are HUGE. For instance, SUPERMX-C78. at CURRENT price levels, 70m warrants outstanding. 1:1 ratio. RM6.88 per warrant. that's 481.6 million that has to be paid out to warrant holder on 12th October.
That's PRETTY SIGNIFICANT when you realize kenanga has a market cap of 529m!

so, yeah... a LOT of "incentive" there to push down prices by IBs

can you recommend me your IB lol. cause I've talked to various brokerages, Investment banks, heck I've talked to Phillips Securities Singapore. ALL of them told me no short selling allowed. And I want to short sell. Please share me the one you use, I want to open account with them so I can short sell.

@ilurker if you borrow from your friend, then you don't have any 2 day constraints or whatever, you can just give it back to him whenever you like, who needs express transfer.

well the day's low was 7.79, so evidently they didn't get matched at 7.17. meh. I wish they DID get matched at 7.17 or something...

@hengsame. Those guys who all queued to sell at 7.17 and such. I'm curious what the pre-market algorhythms matched their orders with.

@v2vehooi. read the announcement. EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS are still allowed to short sell.

The ban does not apply to permitted short-selling, Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) and Bursa Malaysia say in a statement on March 23.

Permitted short-selling typically refers to short-selling of the securities underlying exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are carried out by market makers.

@nathan. well, that's how it works now. in the old days, you could short sell without borrowing stock. WOW, those were crazy times. You could have like negative 20000 genting in your CDS account and then you would have to buy it back in time. I think lurker is talking about the old days. Nowadays, you are required to have the stock in hand in order to even queue a sell order... for normal accounts anyhow. For myself, sometimes I have like 3k genting or something, and I queue to sell 1k at 3.50, 1k at 3.49, 1k at 3.48, 1k at 3.47, and then I get a message saying NOPE YOU CAN'T DO THAT. Well, maybe it depends what platform you are using. ... there might be a way to do it, cause there is a section saying "oversold" which apparently is for when you "accidentally" short sell. ... but if you get caught, you get punished by SC.

i3lurker what are you talking about. if you do not have stock in hand and you try to key in a sell order, you order is rejected. Unless you are an ETF or have a RSS account or something along those lines. And even regulated short selling requires you to borrow stock from the brokerage.

i thought they would cancel those from the buy and sell queues at the last second, but looks like they left most of them in. A pretty blatant attempt from a small guy (23.4k) trying to push price up at limit up, vs some VERY big guys trying to push price down.

@hengsame this happened:

http://prntscr.com/uiyiyv

Pretty blatant stock market manipulation if you ask me.

Because as we all know, 5 days prior to EACH expiry date, will be selldown.

does anyone still have the link for one guy who nicely arranged all the dates for various Glove warrant expiries? I lost that link.

they already announced that they renewing share buyback mandate

another share buyback today confirmed?