siapa beli symlife kat harga ini memang banyak untung....

Simple valuation in terms of earnings:
Expected unbilled sales for June'15 (Q1'16): RM850.0M x profit margin of 15% / 2 years / 310.0M shares = EPS = RM0.20
Assuming a very conservative PE of just 6.0
Expected share price = RM0.20 x 6 = RM1.20

At RM0.85 market price - RM0.05 dividend to be paid in Sept'15 = RM0.80

Expected to earn at least RM0.30 to RM0.40 per share.


If using balance sheet valuation =
Based on Q4'15 balance sheet:
Land held for property development: RM223.0M (based on net book value = but we bloody know the market price of 412 acres of sungai long already exceed RM1.0B)
Total current assets: Just take hard assets:
Property development costs: RM50.0M for the land cost excluding the other property development costs
Inventories - just take desiran bayu (built then sell): RM40.0M
Trade and other receivables: RM260.0M x 80% = RM208.0M
Cash and Bank balance: RM106.0M

Less total liabilities (current + long term): RM525.0M

Total net assets: RM102.0M
Divided by 310.0M shares = RM0.33 per share
This is just based on book value.

If we revalue just one niche land parcel: say the 29.2 acres Puchong land:

Stock: [SYMLIFE]: SYMPHONY LIFE BERHAD
Aug 28, 2014 01:55 PM | Report Abuse

Wow, MahSing just paid RM656.9M for 88.7acres or RM170/sqft of leasehold land in Puchong. Very close (~15km) to Symlife's remaining 29.2acres Puchong land. At RM170/sqft, this works out to RM216M or 70c/Symlife share. Symlife has this parcel valued at RM33.9M in its book. Fat margins here.


RM0.33 + RM0.60 (after land disposal at market price) = RM0.93

What does this mean?
It means by buying into the current price at RM0.85 - RM0.05 dividends = RM0.80, you have about RM0.13 safety margin assuming if the company is liquidated and all assets (and liabilities) are realised at book value except for the niche land mentioned above.

But we know in real world, land will never be sold at book value. It is always being sold at market price.

This means, SymLife is worth more dead then alive.....

wonder whether they will declare dividend? if 2 cents, also quite good....

Hopefully, they will not sell off Damen....i rather they keep it to earn recurring rental income for the next few years....

good shares......need more time to accumulate...just scared when market spike up - good shares will be more expensive and become less attractive in terms of valuation

my wish is that Gadang will sleep until middle of next year - hovering at about RM1.50 range...

Really don't know why:
(1): why their OPEX spiked up?
(2): WHy their taxation is so high?
(3): why their finance cost so high?
(4): Why there is a purchased goodwill in their balance sheet?
Don't know ask who....sigh...

Icon8888's 12 part articles is quite spot on about
- Da'men (which will be completed sometime Sep'15 to Dec'15 and this will definitely transform GOB),
- low cost land bank at Batu Kawan and Seri Kembangan (just look at their recent sales of 15 acres of land at Seri Kembangan), and
- JV with Lembaga Getah (Pavillion Embassy).
But then, his articles missed out on GOB's diversification into the F&B business to earn recurring income. My point of view is that this diversification may have worsen GOB.

GOB's revenue actually improved from FY14 to FY15 but there is a corresponding increase in
- their OPEX, taxation and interest expenses.

Up to today, i don't understand the following:
(1): why their OPEX spiked up? From another forumer, Opteron, it seems to come from their diversification in to the F&B business. Heck, they are even looking into expanding into China's F&B.
(2): why can't they be more like HuaYang or Tambun Indah who just focussed on developing properties? The reason why i buy this counter is their low cost landbank which will guarantee high profit margin when they develop those land. And they have Damein to tide them over.
(3): WHy their taxation is so high?
(4): Why there is a purchased goodwill in their balance sheet? Which company they buy ?
Without the above, GOB could have easily add on additional RM10M to RM15M into their net profit.


These are the questions that Icon8888 does not focus on his 12 parts article about GOB. Right now, i don;t know who to ask?

Other than that, please don't blame him for the drop in GOB's share price. He would not have known it in advance when writing those articles. There is dual impact to this drop.
(1): Property sector is not doing well. Heck, even good companies like Tambun Indah is experiencing RM1 drop from their previous high of RM2.60 to RM1.60, and coupled with
(2): rights issue which halve the share price.

He is NOT GOD, he does not possessed divine power to know about those share price in advance.

My point of view is that GOB is considered quite undervalued in terms of their RNAV but not so much in terms of their EPS.

you see....Gadang rebound back again to RM1.46 - almost equal to the price i paid to buy additional Gadang back on Thurs 25th June.

With hindsight, i should have purchased Gadang at RM1.40 on Monday 22nd June - just a few days difference and i could save 7 cents.

But then, how would i know?

Sometimes. it is easy for people to criticise after the event, but during the moment when you buy...you will not know...you just know RM1.47 is relatively undervalued compared to the intrinsic value of Gadang...

KEEP CALM and BUY GADANG

@ icon8888 brother, do you still hold on to GOB?

@ probably, the other day- i enter to buy at RM1.47 - now, market is at RM1.40
Lost RM0.07
Me = lagi sad...what to do? this is life arrr

tambah makan Gadang at RM1.47....

nyum nyum....
Gadang = enak + lazat + berkhasiat + kenyang....

good lar....stay at RM1.45....uncle wanna come and load up liaw

@ icon8888 = yup = 100% agree with you on this - and we wait for dividend from Gadang...nyum nyum

Market is reacting very positively to this 5 cents increase...nice uptrend

Furthermore, next quarter results will be quite good due to the unbilled sales of RM670.0M umnbilled sales.....

Hopefully, on 28th, it will be at RM1.35... then I also OK.

@ nemesis | Azlan88, hopefully, both of you do not feel offended.
Sometimes, I ask questions - no matter how inappropriate it may seem- is because i want a larger point of view. I think we can add value to one another this way.

I am also a shareholder of Symlife and that I am trying my best not to be blinded by my emotional attachment to the shares I owned. Honestly, it is hard to be objective you have opened a position and the extremely bearish market just makes you cast a skeptical eye on stuff.

Anyway, I really appreciate the feedback both you and Azlan88 has continued to furnish from time to time. Let us support each other and "huat" from Symlife.

Now that Symlife has declared a 5 cents dividend . Let us hope they will declare treasury shares too. Note that they have been progressively buying back their own shares.

@ icon8888, any updates for gob klse....?

GOB should have just stick with their core area being property development. The monies spent on venturing into the F&B industry is better served the high loan liability and reward the shareholders with dividends.

The F&B segment is making losses and thus dragging down the entire profit for FY2015. What a shame. This segment is headed by a director Ta who is actually quite a young guy who is either late twenties or late thirties. His father's reputation precedes him.

Furthermore, this segment recently expanded into the F&B business in China.

But I guess this is going to be a classic textbook case of business restructuring...where you think you bought a prince at the price of a toad and able to kiss the toad and it will turn into princess. But the toad still stays a toad and you may need to sell the toad at the price of a prince.

Hopefully, this may not be the case.

Hopefully, it will be RM1.35 on 23rd June...

normally, when a company tries to push out sales , we need to be skeptical whether they can maintain a healthy profit margin? After trolling at Lowyat, i found out alot of people are complaining about the quality of SymLife's products. So, if your reputation is bad, then how to increase sales? By selling cheaper? All of this has a detrimental effect on SymLife's profitability.

@ Azlan88, sorry but don't mean to be rude. What is the meaning of :

"Hopefully the water deal saga can be wrapped in one month, after Puncak Niaga has given latest extension of one month. Then they can proceed with the Sg. Long development." ???

What is the implication to SymLife?

anyone notice that SymLife is progressively buying back its own shares? albeit in 10K lots....maybe they wanna distribute treasury shares to the shareholders?

can consider Fututech also...quite a good counter.

waiting for 1.40

mmm - 4 more cents to RM1.40....beware what you wish for....

@Abang Darren, actually just to break some bad news.... actually symlife peoduCTS not very good quality.... you can search lowyat..endless xomplaints eapwcially on tijani and their Taman tasik puxhong project....

@ probably, beware what you wish for...

cheap sale..........cheap sale..........

@ Abang Darren, i can recommend GOB (Global Oriental Berhad) for you....another undervalued property counter.

@ Abang Darren, besides SymLife, what other shares do you own?

please stay down until 28th...

SYMLIFE....rest in peace....

Abang Darren,,,what happen to symlife? Drop like nobody business...

this counter can make you vomit blood

if i know...i won't be at klse i3...

market sentiment is very weak - mainly due to 1MDB, low world oil price, political instability, USA market data is improving, weak economy....hence, weak share price...
use this opportunity to buy more .....prepare for the upturn

Hi all;
Actually, Mr Koon's article is quite insightful. But then, i need to highlight 2 points:

"It looks like the Board of directors does not know that there is already an oversupply of properties in the market and they do not seem to realize that it will take about 7 years to complete the development of the land before they can see any profit."

(1): Oversupply of properties in the market: There is a shortage of affordable housing in the market. If your counter is like Matrix Concept whereby the price per square feet is at RM7 and they are able to sell at RM40 to RM45 per square feet, then there is nothing to fear. In fact, Matrix Concept is reporting positive operating cash flows every quarter. Actually, now is the best time to buy property counters that have huge tracts of landbank (better still; if they bought it at dirt cheap prices last time). Here, the developers can build their "bread-and-butter" affordable housing to weather through this period of property slowdown.

(2): Takes 7 years to complete the development of the land before they can see any profit: Normally, developers will develop the land by phases and then recognise progressive billings based on percentage of completion on that particular project. Hence, developers will book in the profits throughout the lifetime of the projects. Hence, developers do not need to wait until the end of 7 years to start recognising profits.

In addition, about the pre-sold properties: I concur with Mr Koon that if the condominium was recently launched and if the take up rate is poor, then the developers will be in deep trouble. This is because upon completion of the condominium, there is no buyers and there will be a build up of inventories. This will create a liquidity crunch because the monies are tied up with inventories and to make matters worst, the developers need to continually service the bank loans.

However, if the pre-sold properties has hit about 50% to 60% of the project's GDV, the developer need not fear because they have kind of like break even.

Why the operating expenses spike up comparing quarter to quarter and year to year?

Hi guys, just being skeptical because i am unable to connect the unbilled sales of $667M versus the dismay sales of $27.8M in Q4'14.

Mgmt states that the unbilled sales is $667M ~ which i believe they have accumulated during FY'15. My basis for this assumption is that management states the Group has achieved total sales of RM707 million for FY2015.

The question now is why they don't recognise a portion of this unbilled sales in Q4'14? If we assume that on average (give and take), all the projects is about 40% completed during Q4'14, then we should be seeing more sales being recognised than $27.8M during Q4'14.

This leads me to believe that on average, the projects are only at its infancy stage ~ whereby the % of completion is somewhere between 10% to 20% completed. Therefore, SymLife is unable to recognise a bigger portion of this unbilled sales of $667M during Q4'14.

If this is the case, this points to:
(1): Possible weaknesses in the execution of projects by SymLife (this is independent of sales). The speed of construction and project deliverable is independent of sales. Here, the more i build, the higher is my percentage of completion. And the higher sales revenue that i can recognise from the unbilled sales of $667M.

Hence, it is possible that the percentage of completion of the projects during Q4'15 lies at the lower end of the spectrum (say about 10%) and this leads to lower recognition of the unbilled sales of $667M during Q4'14.

(2): or possibly the mix of projects that give rise to this impact? Maybe we have the front runners such as TWY and The Star Residences that contribute significantly to these unbilled sales and both projects are still at their infancy stage. Don't forget that Symphony Life has just awarded the piling job to EconPile for TWY and the piling work has just been completed for The Star Residences.

If that is the case, what happens to the rest of the projects (the ones which are more matured in their stage of completion)?

On first glance, the increase in inventories from:
FY2014: $7.6M to
FY2015: $53.6M
seems worrying because it indicate poor sales/ take up rate on SymLife's completed projects. However, on a more positive note, it is highly likely that the increase in the inventories:
is mainly due to Desiran Bayu whereby it is SymLife's "First Build, Then Sell" concept. Hence, this increase in inventories may not be the case of poor take up rate from its completed projects.

Desiran Bayu, a jointly developed project, is Symlife's first Build Then Sell project comprising low density development with only 70 units of superlink terrace houses in Sri Rampai area of Kuala Lumpur with a projected GDV of RM110 million. Symlife's entitlement is 48 units with a GDV of RM80 million. Todate, the project has achieved a take-up rate of more than 50%.

Hence, RM80.0M x 50% take up rate - leaving behind RM40.0M. Hence, the rest of RM53.6M - RM40.0M = RM13.6M maybe attributable to other projects which have been completed but no takers.

Hence, after reconciliation to take out Desiran Bayu. Here, the increase in inventories is still acceptable from (taking out Desiran Bayu):
FY2014: $7.6M to
FY2015: $13.6M
in view of the poor property market.

Hopefully, some one can advice me about the disconnect between the quarterly sales of $27.8M versus the unbilled sales of $667M.

My case is per below.

Thank you all for your invaluable feedback. By the way - what does it mean by the following?

The Board is pleased to announce that for FY2015, the Group has achieved total sales of RM707 million, (including our 50%
share in Star Residences) which represents a 233% increase from the previous year's sales of RM212 million despite the subdued
property market.

Problem is - i cannot find the RM707M sales in the quarterly results.

about the dividend part, i don't think they can declare good dividend this year
simply because they are cash strapped.

From their cash flows statement:

O/B cash and bank $146M (start of FY14)
Negative operating cash flows ($75.9M) - increases in property development costs and slow down in actual billed sales
Positive investing cash flows $14.5M - mainly due to disposal of non-core businesses
Positive Financing cash flows $21.0M - increase in bank borrowings
C/B cash and bank $105.6M (close of FY14)

It seems the slowdown in property market has negatively impacted on their operating cash flows and this has resulted in their cash and bank balances to drop year on year.

i don't quite understand this statement:

The Board is pleased to announce that for FY2015, the Group has achieved total sales of RM707 million, (including our 50% share in Star Residences) which represents a 233% increase from the previous year's sales of RM212 million despite the subdued property market.

I cannot find this in the numbers for the quarterly results...

i know this is a stupid question - but can anyone explain what is unbilled sales?

i mean the detailed / in depth definition of unbilled sales...

why is the current quarter profit is only RM27.8M (Mar'15) which is a significant drop compared to RM94.6M the previous quarter (31st Mar'14)?

Quarterly results gonna be announced today...hopefully, it is going to be good news...

@ Apini,
You are right. Apart from Capital 21, we also have the Prima housing in Cyberjaya that Gadang is a party to.

@ Darren Liew, what do you think about Global Oriental Berhad? It is also a property developer and the story is quite similar to SymLife - that it has about 350 acres of land at Batu Kawan - bought at low prices and now the land price has appreciated many folds.

In addition, it is currently completing the shopping center - Da'mein and in the process of developing Pavillion Embassy at Jalan Ampang. it has very close connection with Malton.

Both sifu icon8888 and James70 has written about Global Oriental Berhad and have holdings in the company.