Posted by truthseeker1 > Mar 1, 2015 09:55 PM | Report Abuse
If I hold Maybank C6 until expire, how much my investment still worth? If I need to write long like here and don't make money it is not worth my effort.


Sorry, you have lost all your RM100600 as your punt has become zero, kosong. I have lost too but just RM4788. I used to lose this type of money sometimes. But now I have shy away from punting in call warrants any more. If anyone asks me about this, I will give this advice.

You can’t blame anyone but yourself for your loss due to the actions of your own. Even if I advised you to buy (I never do that), you still have to take responsibility of yourself. You didn’t read the messages in the article properly too.

The article merely provided you with some knowledge what call warrants are, some lingos, and option pricing knowledge. These are good knowledge if you care to learn. Some good messages were there too as listed for you. They were also in the “Conclusion” of the article.

1) Buying call warrants is a punting endeavour as suggested by the title of this article. Using a few thousand to punt for fun is alright for me, but don’t know about you. Engaging RM100600 in punting is a stupid thing for you to do. Just a reminder to you.
2) Analysts giving the RM11.42 for Maybank were wrong. Didn’t I say before do not depend too much on analysts’ reports. You are stupid to take every report of analysts at face value.
3) Do not always think of how much you will make in the share market, also think of some financial risk management, and how much you could lose.
4) The call warrant market is an uneven playfield. That is why I have quit punting in this market.

Too bad you couldn’t understand a thing about the article. You only got yourself to blame.

The future of stock and commodity markets are really unknowable and unpredictable.

Some of the “most undervalued plantation stocks” and “high profit growth” with young tree profiles, huge capital expenses in planting and replanting plantation companies and promising future palm oil prices touted 4-5 years ago such as Rimbunan Sawit and JayaTiasa in a popular local blog have their quarterly financial results ending 31st December 2014 in losses. Their share prices have dropped by more than 30% since then while the overall market has gone up by more than 50%.

Those high growth plantation companies which I only knew such as Sarawak Oil Palm, TSH performed way below expectation due to the lower palm oil price, but at least they are still making profit.

A company with 30% revenue in palm oil, Kumpulan Fima was never paid any attention by any plantation analyst, has its latest quarterly result with jump in 35% profit from its palm oil division. What a surprise, or is it?

Plantation companies can’t be valued by metrics such as Market capitalization/planted area. A more appropriate metric should be EV/planted area. But that is also too simplistic as other factors play important role; they are management, how they are planted, terrain, soil condition, yield, age profile, weather, labour availability, other competitive commodity such as soya beans etc.

So it may be important to look at the history of the company such as its management action, past performance etc besides age profile, expected future prices etc and not swinging for the fence and employing high or any leverage in any investment, as one can be badly wrong.

When Mr Lee was so bullish about plantation companies and FGVB in particular in April last year, he asked my opinion about investing heavily in FGVB. This was what I gave him.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/66355.jsp

Since then, FGVB’s share price has dropped by a whopping 39% from RM4.14 to just RM2.53 now! I don’t know if he heeded my opinion as he is a person who has very strong opinion of his own.

To me, finding a multi-bagger gem is not easy. But identifying a lemon is very easy. You just need to know the language of business, ie read financial statement, some valuation techniques, and know how the market works. So far, I have been about 95% of the time correct.

If you don’t know the language of business, you can fall into the trap as above, easily.

The just announced quarterly results of London Biscuits was so poorly prepared that we can't see how its profit and especially cash flow comes about.

Again reduction in profit is one thing. How is its cash flow? Does cash flow from operations results from heavy depreciation write back, but again high capital expenses resulting negative free cash flow?

It doesn't even tell you what the capital expenses is.

Is this an acceptable quarterly report?

What is hiding behind the closet?

London Biscuits is one of the poorest performance and corporate governance company. That is why it can be used as a text book case study in a MBA Finance course.

Posted by fortunecheat > Feb 27, 2015 10:29 PM | Report Abuse

kcchongnz why are we talking about London Biscuit again %3F%0A%0AI sick of the left over rice...

Reflection Is the Most Important Part of the Learning Process

"We do not learn from experience ... we learn from reflecting on experience." John Dewey


It is also important to keep on reminding oneself what has gone wrong in an investment; otherwise he will continue to make mistakes in the future, endlessly.

By the way, it is not my responsibility to tell you what you want to hear, is it?

Me too%2C why ah%3F%3F%3F%3F

The just announced quarterly results was so poorly prepared that we can%27t see how its profit and especially cash flow comes about. %0A%09%0AAgain reduction in profit is one thing. How is its cash flow%3F Does cash flow from operations results from heavy depreciation write back%2C but again high capital expenses resulting negative free cash flow again. %0A%0AIt doesn%27t even tell you what the capital expenses is. Is this an acceptable quarterly report%3F

http%3A//klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/66355.jsp

Posted by donfollowblindly > Feb 25, 2015 05:14 PM | Report Abuse

Don't trust anyone here is my advise. Do they tell you when they sell when you do the buying at high price?


Anyone owes you something?

Alphabeta,

Good points. I will add them to my list of when to sell.

Your point B is very valid in Bursa. Some syndicates may have bought the share at cheap price and they will jack up the price by all means to entice you to buy, and at the back, they harvest.

But for value investors, if they find the price has not reached or near their estimated intrinsic value, they may not sell too. That doesn't mean lost opportunity if you read Noby's experience above.

Posted by zenny > Feb 25, 2015 12:20 PM | Report Abuse
Hi KC. So for stocks like Homeriz, Pintaras, Willow which have gone up significantly, what's the right price to sell? Is there a reliable financial measuring tool(are you suggesting to use IRR?) on whether the stock is overvalued? Also does this mean that we do not sell when the stock price has gone up substantially in a very short time say due to a rerating and is in overbought position and hope to buy back when the price has retreated to a lower level?
thanks

Zenny,

Good question. Please read the link below if you are interested in my opinion.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/56937.jsp

The fact is very few people know how to calculate return. Many buy a stock, sell in short term and make some profit. Like you they repeat this process, and each time make or lose a bit. As long as the winning appears to be more than losing, they think they have done it correctly and very well. Why hold?

If they know some mathematics and finance and calculate the total internal rate of return, they will discover what you had discovered below.

"In fact, I have bought and sold HOMERIZ and WILLOW a few times. Although it seemed like a smart move in the short term, when I look back at the bigger picture of those transactions, I realize that I would have been much better just holding those stocks from the beginning."

Noby,

Yeah it is in their momentum portfolio in the latest daily free magazine.

You notice that when you talked about Willowglen, it was just 30-40 sen. When another of our course participant Teck Chuan talked about Homeritz, it was 40+ sen. And when I started to talk about Pintaras, it was just about the adjusted price of RM1.00. When I talked about London Biscuits, it was RM1.00+.

They are all in The Edge Value Stock Portfolio recently when Homeritz is RM1.14, Pintaras RM4.30 and Willow 78.5 sen. And LonBis is 78 sen.


Who says fundamental investing doesn't work?

Generally for retail investors without proven trading skill, avoid London Biscuits, Khee San, KNM, GCB etc. Read the article below and keep it for future reflection, seriously.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/67199.jsp

It becomes more risky now for novice investors when a reputable magazine such as The Edge starts to recommend to buy London Biscuits.

I can understand ordinary investor writing about how good is London Biscuits as many may not have not gone into details but just base on simplistic PE ratio, P/B etc, and looking into its cash flow and return on capitals and management actions etc.

But for The Edge? Quite difficult to comprehend!

Posted by ks55 > Feb 25, 2015 09:16 AM | Report Abuse

No harm taking small portion of your cash to polish up your trading skill at the same time making some pocket money. I always believe 買股是為了增加生活情趣, 小賭怡情, 大賭傷身

Other than making some pocket money, I love to enjoy a little bit of thrill.


ks55, I fully agree with your above statement. I do that too.

Khee San?

Do you know about its value? I guess you don't need to as you have proven your trading skill in London Biscuits. You can make money just knowing its price.

Just looked at Khee San as highly recommended by you. This animal exhibit very very similar characteristics of London Biscuits.

Return on equity = 4%, the same rubbish as LonBis.

Return on invested capital = 2.1%, much worse than that trash LonBis. Are you happy if you put in RM1000 in a risky business and earn RM20 a year? Not me.

Cash flow from operations, ok positive but it is an illusion, the same as LonBis as Free cash flow is again negative. Always very high capital expenses, yeah, buying and selling of PPE, same modus operandi as LonBis. Same thing as LonBis, debt is the only increasing item, some more faster than that trash.

At 54 sen appeared to be cheap with PE of 7.4 but that is not the right metric to use. The right metric is EV/ebit for the firm. It has high debt and EV is ridiculously high at 28 times its earnings before interest and tax!

As a value investor, I won't touch it with a ten feet pole!

But again you may be right in its price. i don't know.

ks55,

I have to say that you made a right call as you have already made a decent gain from buying London Biscuits at 56.5 sen. That is the some kind of behavioral finance, or psychological investing. It is like a musical chair, the one who can guess correctly when the music will stop will make money, but the majority will be caught.

Most investors are attracted by anything "free" and easily deceived by those "private placement" at price higher than the market price. These are all mirages. There is nothing free in investment. A cake cut into 10 pieces is still the same cake of the same value.

If the value of the stock is 60 sen and I buy equal amount more from private placement at RM1, and jack it up to 90 sen, I still make money. It is easy to jack the share up from 60 sen to 90 sen as someone bought it at RM1.00. But this is a game controlled by big boys and small time retail investors as a whole group, have no chance to win. You should know some of these games.

London Biscuits doesn't worth anything. It only has a corporation option value, a value = Min (0, X). This option has no intrinsic value but a time value. My estimate of its time value is definitely far below its price of 78.5 sen now. It is even far below your cost of 50+sen. so enjoy your gain while you can.

Try use some kind of absolute valuation method such as the discount free cash flow method to value London Biscuits you will know what I mean,even if you use very liberal assumptions.

You do appear to have great trading skill though.

Please read and try to understand this article is written to discuss about how to identify high quality growth stock (Pintaras)and poor quality growth (in debts and share capital)trash (London Biscuits).

These two stocks are perfect stocks which I happen to know more about to compare and contrast.

Do you have better stocks to compare and contrast with? Please show your new piping hot stocks and the analysis to compare and contrast.


Posted by fortunecheat > Feb 24, 2015 08:22 PM | Report Abuse

Same old story

Leftover rice goreng again and served to you. Yummy meh ?

Posted by fortunecheat > Feb 24, 2015 11:36 AM | Report Abuse

Good morning kcchong (or afternoon, if you are in New Zealand).

Back to the topic. I am not actually challenging you on Coastal. Just seeking clarification. I don't think I have been hostile in my query. The only difference from others is that I left out the flattery and pleasantries, and prefer straight talk. Hope that doesn't give you a wrong impression.

Happy with your explanation. Especially the part on "there is no statistical significance that anyone can predict correctly the future....". That was exactly the same conclusion I have after what happened recently to the oil market. It threw every assumptions, valuation, modelling out of the window. I did learn a new lesson from that. Nowadays, I gave more emphasis to diversification as a result.

Last but not least, I hope you are not driving and reading my response through your smart hone at the same time. That is not safe no matter you are looking at the windshield or rearview window



Glad you are happy with my response to your earlier post. No, I don't need any flattery and pleasantries from you and I don't really know who you actually are. And please read my response to you again, I do tell you to use both the front screen as well as the rear view mirror when driving. I didn't ask you to use your smart phone when driving, did I?

And just a reminder. Fundamental value investing is a evergreen thingy; buying good companies such as that of Pintaras, Scientex when they are cheap. and avoid lemon like London Biscuits, KNM, GCB etc. These are excellent near perfect examples to use to remind investors and it happen that I know them more than other companies.

Fundamental value investing won't change with time too. If you feel "sian" reading my fundamental investing principles and examples used, I can't help you.

Well you can use your examples and not follow mine. i like to see your examples, or your investment strategies. I am sure others like to see too.


Posted by fortunecheat > Feb 23, 2015 05:32 PM | Report Abuse

can write something new ? it is Lonbisc, Pintaras.... AGAIN...

a bit sian already...

fortunecheat,

I would say you have some relevant questions. Good work.

But sorry I can't answer your questions. Firstly I am not a fortune teller, I can't see the future. And secondly I don't cheat. I won't simply paint a rosy future picture to cheat you. Can't do it.

However, I don't think you can tell what is in store for the future too. In fact none can tell the future correctly and consistently, not the economists, analysts, the talking heads in the media etc. Let me cite the same example you did in your following post.

Just a few months ago when everyone is so optimistic about oil and gas companies, including Coastal which went up to more than RM5.30 a share half a year ago, did anyone foretold the future then that crude oil could crash in such a furious manner? Did you? And how are you so sure that it won't recover in the future?

You don't seem to have read enough about investing and forecasting about the future. If you do, you will find that there is no statistical significance that anyone can predict correctly the future of stocks, financial markets, commodity prices etc. Note the word "statistically significance"

Nobody drives by looking at the rear view mirror. Not me, do you? But I do use the rear view mirror; when reversing, before overtaking, parking, etc.

May be you should do that too. Otherwise it is dangerous to drive.

In investing, yes, I look at the rear view mirror often too as i tend to have the opinion that a company, a good business, which has been manged well by the same good people in the past, will most probably do well in the future. Note the phrase "most probably".

That is what Warren Buffet said too

“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”

I hope you understand what he said.

So for me when I drive, I have to look ahead the windshield, but I can only see that much. I also have to look at the rear mirror once a while as explained.



Posted by fortunecheat > Feb 24, 2015 09:01 AM | Report Abuse

kcchong, what you have shown in the article is coastal's historical performance (which you used as justification for investment). They made RM200 mil net profit. That was during the boom time. With oil now at current depressed level (and expected to stay low due to the new player, shale oil), can coastal repeat the same performance ? Most of its orders are offshore support vessels. Will there still be so much demand going forward ? Will profit margin be depressed to compete with other players for order book ?

Peter Lynch said don't drive by looking at the rearview mirror.

Afre you driving your New Zealand SUV by looking at the rearview mirror ?

This article is a discussion about how to identify a quality growth stock and a shareholder value destroying growth stock. This is what I have mentioned in the article,

"Is growth a sure win thing in investment?

Let us look at two examples of growth companies in Bursa which I happen to know quite well to see the proposition above is true; Pintaras Jaya and London Biscuits."


So if you have feel so "sian" and you have any stock which can be better examples, provide their analysis here. Then only we can discuss about the merits of your "constructive criticisms"



Posted by fortunecheat > Feb 23, 2015 05:32 PM | Report Abuse

can write something new ? it is Lonbisc, Pintaras.... AGAIN...

a bit sian already...

Posted by fortunecheat > Feb 23, 2015 05:33 PM | Report Abuse

anyway, give you a like, just to show that i am trying to give constructive comments..

i3investors has a lot of knowledgeable, independent thinking and savvy investors nowadays. That is a good development in investing community. There are indeed some very good comments here. I like to chip in some.

I don’t believe there is this “noble intention to help you to make money”. We are all human beings, and we are not Mother Theresa, nor we are saints. Human being is inherently selfish, and his own interest always comes first. Let us be realistic.

If you think otherwise, and act as if strangers are noble to make money for you and you end up losing your hard earn money, you only have yourself to blame.

It is a jungle out there in investing. The only hope you have is to arm yourself with all the necessary knowledge, stand behind the shoulders of giants (make sure you know who is a real giant), practice and gain the experience, if you want immerse yourself in the investing jungle with the hope of making some good returns.

In Bursa, there ain’t no tooth fairy

Good luck.

Posted by fortunebullz > Feb 21, 2015 07:46 PM | Report Abuse

I was whacked and ridiculed for my rm1 profit margin philosophy! But the truth is many seniors are still blur or even don't realize the art science of buy/sell using time proven and tested combined TA+FA with singular goal of maximizing returns above 50%! If you can't consistently achieve above 50% in a year, then you better quit stocks! No, i am not joking! The very reason CP Teh should harness his knowledge with us in coming stock challenge! I will be the first to submit my stock picks for next year and i warn you all it's going to be very hard to beat me!


Wow, investing quote of the year. Can't help not re-posting it here.

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 21, 2015 09:01 AM | Report Abuse

"People jumping out like a robot to defense certain Rich Uncle who went around boasting about his philanthropy and "noble intention to help others to make money"

People doing philanthropy deeds whether he boast about or not, is commendable. Philanthropy acts are done on those who need it, such as good students from poor family, those deprived of basic necessities in life, not because of laziness but of circumstances beyond their control.

"noble intention to help others to make money"?

I strongly disagree that "help others to make money" in the stock market is a noble act anyway.

"Help others to make money" from utilizing their skills such as providing job or business opportunities may be considered as noble acts as they are adding value to the society.

How does "help others to make money" in the stock market adds value to the society as a whole?

Does helping those who already have a lot of money, and making more money and using more of other people's money to make money a noble act????

How to help poor people to make money from the stock market when they don't even have enough money for basic needs?

You don't need 1997 saga to kill. Internet bubble in 2001, US sublime crisis in 2008, and even using margin in December last year can also results in margin calls and heavy losses in forced selling. Think of the buying of many oil and gas companies then; Coastal Contracts, Bumi Armada, SapuraKencana, UMWOGC etc, weren't they considered good companies, sure win stocks?

Anyone having margin financing and heavy on these not-bad-stocks would incur margin call mid last December, resulting heavy losses.

And if you want new stocks picks, I think you should read what Icon8888 has been writing about. He is one of the biggest contributors in i3 on this now. Analysis and reports come with facts and figure. Although I don't agree with everyone and I did put forward my constructive criticisms (hope he doesn't mind), most of his articles and analysis make sense.

well done Icon8888.

Posted by kakashit > Feb 20, 2015 01:32 PM | Report Abuse

competitiveness can sharpen the edge, the more aggressive the better, when u're challenged, u bet with ur dignity n reputation which make u a man.

Be a man, common!


Be a man to take this challenge? Dignity, reputation? Hmm, I didn't know this got any relationship.

Let me ask your one question, if someone in the street challenge you to "Ciak sai", do you want to take it to protect your "dignity" and 'reputation"?

Tell me what benefits do you think this "challenge" you can get out from? To get me out from i3investor forums?

But I thought you told me that you benefited from my stocks write ups? Made some money too, didn't you?

Don't want to read my repetitive value investing articles? You don't have to, do you?

bsngpg,

Thanks. Same to you and everyone.

Posted by donfollowblindly > Feb 17, 2015 11:02 PM | Report Abuse
Buying price RM1.74 plus 10sen dividend so actual cost RM1.64, now still lost 20sen(RM1.44). When can reach intrisic value RM2.30 as this blog claim?

You must be damn unlucky for following me blindly as you have lost so much money follow the worst two or three stocks in my worst portfolio of 14 stocks as expressed by your comments.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/post/donfollowblindly.jsp

You know KLSE is about flat the past one year when my new portfolio of stocks were written by me and posted in i3investor. The return of this worst portfolio of mine was 13.3%, outperformed the broad market by 12%, as shown in the appended table.

What was your portfolio return for the past one year? Or did you have any to show except follow me blindly? Or rather criticize me blindly?


Stock Ref Price Dividend 18/2/2015 Total return
Kuchai 1.20 0.002 1.41 17.7%
Prestariang 1.25 0.06 2.01 65.6%
Perak corp 3.69 0.085 2.59 -27.5%
Magni 2.63 0.13 2.97 17.9%
Latitude 2.57 0.085 5.55 119.3%
MFCB 2.24 0.06 2.50 14.3%
Padini 1.75 0.10 1.44 -12.0%
Pintaras 2.95 0.14 4.25 48.8%
Scientex 5.74 0.21 6.99 25.4%
Tasco 3.15 0.05 3.07 -1.0%
MRCB Wa 0.275 0 0.210 -23.6%
BIMB W 0.660 0 0.435 -34.1%
Plenitude 3.15 0.06 2.29 -25.4%
Tong Her 2.35 0.12 2.25 0.9%

Av Portfolio Return xxxx xxxx xxxx 13.3%
KLSE 1844 55.32 1810 1.2%
30/11/2013 18/2/2015
Median 7.6%

Ayan Tua,

Sorry I don't know any of those stocks you mentioned.

Yeah, we are matured people. We talk about stocks and things, what we think about them, not hantam people.

Biscuits are nice to eat. But like all other things, some biscuits really suck. Of course individual taste is different, but some biscuits really suck.

Posted by Invest123 > Jan 12, 2015 11:10 PM | Report Abuse

Do not worry as the management might use the methods below to reduce the gearing:

Sell shares. The board of directors could authorize the sale of shares in the company, which could be used to pay down debt.

AS AN INVESTOR, I WON'T BUY THE SALES OF SHARES FROM THE COMPANY BECAUSE I CAN'T CONVINCE MYSELF IF THERE IS ANY SIGNIFICANT VALUE FOR LONDON BISCUITS, WHATEVER ABSOLUTE VALUATION METHOD I USED.

A COMPANY RESORTING TO SALE OF ADDITIONAL SHARES TO THE PUBLIC OR ANY PRIVATE INVESTOR, JUST BECAUSE OF TO PAY DOWN DEBT, MAY NOT BE A GOOD SIGN AS ADDITIONAL SHARES DILUTE EARNINGS PER SHARE,AND LENDERS HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN ITS PRESENT HIGH DEBT.

Convert loans. Negotiate with lenders to swap existing debt for shares in the company.

CONVERT DEBT TO SHARES? WHICH LENDER WANT AFTER LOOKING AT LONDON BISCUITS PAST PERFORMANCE AND CASH FLOW? IF I AM A BANKER, I WON'T WANT. IN FACT, I MAY HAVE REGRETTED LENDING TO IT IN THE FIRST PLACE.

MORE SHARES OUTSTANDING DILUTE EARNINGS PER SHARE ALSO.UNLESS FORCED TO, IT MAY NOT BE GOOD FOR THE COMPANY.

Reduce working capital. Increase the speed of accounts receivable collections, reduce inventory levels, and/or lengthen the days required to pay accounts payable, any of which produces cash that can be used to pay down debt.

LOOK ST THE TABLE BELOW. DOES IT APPEAR THAT NET WORKING CAPITAL IS REDUCING AFTER TALKING ABOUT IT EVERY YEAR? ANY SIGN THAT RECEIVABLES ARE REDUCING?

I DO SEE INVENTORIES REDUCING. IS IT BECAUSE MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY OR JUST BUSINESS IS NOT DOING WELL AND HENCE NO POINT HAVING REASONABLE LEVEL OF INVENTORIES?

PAYABLE SEEMS TO BE REDUCING. IS IT BECAUSE OF MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY OR JUST "BAD LEG", OR REFUSING TO PAY CREDITORS ON TIME? IS THIS SUSTAINABLE? DO YOU WANT TO DO BUSINESS WITH THEM?

Year 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Receivables 109194 91514 73885 87938 54466 45995 38518 42605 37232
Inventories 27370 29114 26814 33868 31563 33056 18029 17315 16753
Payables 41423 50912 44888 56129 50177 36368 26434 20060 16442
Net working capital 95141 69716 55811 65677 35852 42683 30113 39860 37543

Increase profits. Use any methods available to increase profits, which should generate more cash with which to pay down debt.

INCREASE PROFITS? DON'T SEEM TO SEE THAT OVER THE YEARS. BUT I DO SEE INCREASING REVENUE, INCREASING CAPITAL EMPLOYED, INCREASING PPE, INCREASING DEBTS, INCREASING SHARE CAPITAL, BUT NOT INCREASING PROFIT.


....So it's up to the management! Good luck.

YEAH MAN, GOOD LUCK, THE MANAGEMENT NEEDS PLENTY OF LUCK FOR THE FUTURE.

DO NOT WORRY? IF I AM INVESTED IN LONDON BISCUITS, I WOULD WORRY LIKE SHIT.

I hope to include YiStock too. We are of the same school of thought.

Cheongcy,

Great analysis of yours. Hope we can exchange ideas.

bsngpg, thanks for the support, and others too although I didn't express it. It will attract more non productive criticisms.

Personally you will notice that I like to debate and argue about facts. That is how knowledge is shared.

I would like to debate with growthinvestor on my comments why he called them bullshit, point by point, when I was just trying to translate an excellent article posted by Tan KW in Chinese. It is such a good article that it is a waste not to share with everyone.

I would like others to criticize what I wrote too for I know I also make plenty of mistakes. That is how we learn. Seriously I learned heaps through i3investor from writing, improving and learn from others constructive criticisms here. There are many knowledgeable people here, many of them are not loud.

But nobody likes other accusing him bullshit, or that I belittle anyone like growth investors, for I talk about things, exchanging knowledge, not about persons, and personal attack.

Disposed loss-making overseas ops, set to make MYR22.5m one-off gain and save MYR20m in opex p.a.
Targets to transform into a renewable energy player, a more stable business model.
Maintain BUY and MYR1.00 TP (0.6x EV/order backlog) with upside bias.

KNM has entered into a Sales & Purchase Agreement (SPA) to sell KNM Pty Ltd (KPL), its Australia-Indonesia based process equipment operations to Northfield Global Limited for AUD2 (original investment: AUD9.1m or MYR25.1m). Under the SPA, Northfield will take over all of KPL’s liabilities (AUD18.73m or MYR53.5m). KNM will make a one-off gain of MYR22.5m.



I need help to figure out how an original investment of AUD9.1m disposed at AUD2 can result in a MYR22.5m one-off gain. Is it because the liabilities are taken off, or what? And that also considered as gain?

I also need help on this valuation metric by Maybank Investment bank of

TP = 0.6xEV/order backlog

to give a TP of MYR1.00 for KNM. Very interesting metric to get whatever value you want. Why not use other valuation metrics to get a value of RM2.00, RM10.00?

I also need help to understand "Targeting to transform into a renewable energy player", just targeting, looking for opportunities, without any solid history to prove the management can add value to shareholder, can have so much upside for this shining star.

All I know when KNM was 43.5 sen during 2013 Christmas, investment banks gave a TP of KNM to RM1.10-1.50, the share price did rally up to RM1.10 on 4th August 2014, before falling sharply back to about 40 sen in mid December last year.

So what do you think, are there more retail investors making money from 43.5 sen up to RM1.10 from the major shareholders and the institutional investors, or more losing when the share price fell from RM1.10 to 40 sen?

Posted by AyamTua > Feb 9, 2015 05:18 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz.. how are you?

AyamTua, I am good. Hope you are too.

Tan KW posted this excellent article in Chinese. I thought this excellent article should be shared with those who don't read Chinese, someone like you, milopanas and many others.

So I tried to translate it to English and add in a little salt as illustrative and for sharing purpose. Why they want to challenge me and hope to get me out form i3 ah?

Posted by Newbiees > Feb 9, 2015 08:38 PM | Report Abuse

可以教我如何投资股票吗？

Can of course. I am giving online finance and investment course for a small fees. So if you are interested, let me know.

Growth and value investing is inseparable. You buy an asset of RM1 for 10 sen, that is value investing. You pay RM1 for a high growth company with RM1.50 and you know that its value will grow to RM3.00 in 3 years time, that is also value investing.

On the other hand you pay RM10 for a RM1 high growth company which will grow to RM10 in 10 years time, that is a poor high growth investing strategy.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/47763.jsp

Posted by soojinhou > Feb 9, 2015 06:10 PM | Report Abuse
KC Chong, don't take the bait. I appreciate your sharing and your well thought out arguments. Unlike these idiots, I care less whether your stocks make money but more on the strength of your argument. Just ignore these idiots.

Jinhou,

I underestimated your kindness when you first contacted me. Thanks for everything; your moral support here and your sharing of your great analysis. You know much more than me indeed in investing.

Yes, there is no point of challenge. Yes, I could very well lose too. We know investing is a process, well thought arguments, and results could only be evidenced after years, not a few months or a year. Even after years, it is also no 100% assurance of success. That is the nature of investing.

Posted by MrTigerShark > Feb 9, 2015 05:59 PM | Report Abuse


NO NO NO NO NO!I DONT WANT SPEND 10 HOURS HERE!YOU CAN DEBATE WITH YOUR BEST FRIEND CALVINTANENG!HE DAMN FREE LIKE YOU!!!

LIFE IS WAITING FOR ME OUTSIDE!WAKAKAKA!!!!!


So you have no time to share anything here except accusing this and that without facts? And I spare time here to share what I can, a lot of time.

So whose fault is that? Mine?

So am I too kepoh to share things in i3investor? It is better to be like you shouting nonsense now and then?

Posted by MrTigerShark > Feb 9, 2015 05:51 PM | Report Abuse

YOU WANT EVERYONE SPEND 10 HOURS HERE!
EVERYONE NOT AS FREE AS KCCHONGNZ!
WORK AND LIFE OUT THERE WAITING NOT IN PC!
WAKAKAKAKA!!!!


So you have no time to share anything here except accusing this and that without facts? And I spare time here to share what I can, a lot of time.

So whose fault is that? Mine?

So am I too kepoh to share things in i3investor? It is better to be like you shouting nonsense now and then?

Posted by Intelligent Investor > Feb 9, 2015 05:47 PM | Report Abuse

What is the point if growthinvestor or kcchongnz win?

We shall learn the knowledge from the sharing, focus on long term wealth building and let's the compounding effect work for our portfolio.

I don't think Mr. Chong have to accept this challenge. No point.

Why not the challenger read the post carefuly http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/blidx.jsp and debate with the fact and finding?


Very good suggestions Intelligent investor. Hamtan what is wrong there kuat kuat with your reasoning and arguments.

Alternately, milopanas or growthinvestor, Tigershark, truthseeker1 can post their analysis and articles in i3 to share and I will debate on their articles. Either way is good for knowledge sharing. Isn't that? No good accusing the other bullshit with no substantiations like it is often done, or shout challenge this challenge that, no good to anybody.

Posted by milopanas > Feb 9, 2015 05:29 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 9, 2015 05:19 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by milopanas > Feb 9, 2015 04:16 PM | Report Abuse

biar saya tolong post.value investing lawan growth investing.tapi saya rasa dia takkan berani terima challenge ni.


milopanas again. Why you like challenge this challenge that? Sio ah?

But let me ask you what do you understand by growth investing and value investing, before you want to lawan this lawan that?


jangan guna cina.saya tak faham.saya understand satu saja.growthinvestor belasah intelligent investor cukup cukup dlm 2014 stockpick.cakap apa pun tak guna.


"milopanas again. Why you like challenge this challenge that? Sio ah?

But let me ask you what do you understand by growth investing and value investing, before you want to lawan this lawan that?"

Aku pun tak tahu ayat di atas ini Cina kah?

Posted by MrTigerShark > Feb 9, 2015 05:18 PM | Report Abuse

WAKAKAKA!!!!!IN KCHONGNZ EYES EVERYONE IS GAMBLER EXCEPT HIMSELF!!!!!!

THAT WHY YOU ARE BEST FRIEND WITH CALVINTANENG THE HONEST GUY!!!!!I KNOW I KNOW I KNOW!!!!!YOU LIKE TO DWELL IN I3 FOR 10 HOUR EVRYDAY!!!!!I KNOW I KNOW ALREADY!!!!!


Yes, I like to dwell in i3investor, sharing knowledge on finance and investment. Yes also I spend a lot of time sharing, mostly in i3investor. But when did I say everyone is a gambler?

By the way, why don't you like me, sharing some useful investment knowledge in i3? We can do together, for example we can deliberate our different views and knowledge here, rather talking about nonsense?

Posted by milopanas > Feb 9, 2015 04:16 PM | Report Abuse

biar saya tolong post.value investing lawan growth investing.tapi saya rasa dia takkan berani terima challenge ni.


milopanas again. Why you like challenge this challenge that? Sio ah?

But let me ask you what do you understand by growth investing and value investing, before you want to lawan this lawan that?

Posted by growthinvestor > Feb 9, 2015 04:06 PM | Report Abuse
i have no time to write long like you.i challenge to you a competition.if you believe you are better than me,then accept it.if not,no point talk anymore.
loser out from i3 forever.
same as stockpick 2015 rules.each submit selection on 30/3/2015.you can see my stock selection if you accept the challenge.
buy and hold 1 year - 4/5/2015 until 3/5/2016.
1 month buffer between selection and start date to prove ability picking stock and avoid hot stock move on april 2015.
deal or no deal.give the answer on this friday 13/2/2015.


Wah, fierce man!來勢兇兇

What good is this "challenge" for you and me, and others? What will it show? Prowess in who is good at betting and gambling? How would one year prove who is good in investing? Is that the style of your growth investing, one year can see the result of your growth strategy? Is that suppose so? Must ask your sifu Buffett and Munger.

No, I am not taking your bet. It sounds extremely silly and stupid for me to do so. I am a value investor you know. I thought the growth investing has the same principles, that growth investing is a long-term endeavor, isn't that? I don't know, I thought growth investor like Philip Fisher, Warren Buffet, Charles Munger are all like that. Of course "growthinvestor" is different. I know I know.

Yes, I don't know I will win or lose in your 'Challenge" in a one year period. I like to dwell in i3investor. I don't want to disappear from i3 because I lose the gamble, like a coin tossing competition.

But why you want to challenge like that? Weren't my questions simple and straightforward? If you really want to challenge, why don't we follow from here:



Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 9, 2015 09:44 AM | Report Abuse X

Posted by growthinvestor > Feb 9, 2015 12:04 AM | Report Abuse
bs talk kcchongnz!do not belittle investors on revenue and growth school because you are terrible in it.respect others and stop harping on this school is better than the rest.the best investos, warren buffett and charlie munger are growth investors that practice compounding!

1) Which part of my statement bs as alleged by you?

2)Which part of my comments did I "belittle investors on revenue and growth school"

3)I do have quite a number of growth stocks in my portfolio here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/67547.jsp

Pintaras, Prestariang, SKP Resources, Jobstreet, NTPM, CBIP, Homeritz, Willow, Datasonic, Magni, Latitude, Scientex, Tasco. In fact more than half of them are growth stocks. But they were bought not at high valuation.

So which stock here that I am terrible at that as in your sentence here? "you are terrible in it." in your statement?

And which growth stock you have recommended which is terrible good?

4) Can you show your theoretical background to prove your growth story against my only statements mentioned in my above post? I can show you mine.

a) "Look for companies with high return on capital, in ROE and ROIC, and not chasing revenue and profit growth without ROE or ROIC higher than the cost of capitals."

b) "It was a double whammy as the shares were bought at a high valuation with high growth expectations which did not materialize."

5) Of course Buffett and Munger are successful investors; more of buying good business at reasonable prices. They do not "chase" growth stocks at high price. Do they?

6) You and I are not Buffett and Munger. We can never be.

Posted by truthseeker1 > Feb 9, 2015 10:18 AM | Report Abuse
That doesn't mean high dividend stock is always good. When their business suffer their share price also drop. Eg are Padini and Pantech.

You are certainly right especially when you always purposely try to pick on one or two stocks in someone's portfolio of scores of stocks.

Shouldn't you be a little impartial and look at a bigger picture in a diversified portfolio of high dividend yield stocks with good fundamentals?

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/62033.jsp

Or are you so good in investing in a couple of stocks that you can foresee so accurately that their business will deteriorate in the future?

Posted by growthinvestor > Feb 9, 2015 12:04 AM | Report Abuse
bs talk kcchongnz!do not belittle investors on revenue and growth school because you are terrible in it.respect others and stop harping on this school is better than the rest.the best investos, warren buffett and charlie munger are growth investors that practice compounding!

1) Which part of my statement bs as alleged by you?

2)Which part of my comments did I "belittle investors on revenue and growth school"

3)I do have quite a number of growth stocks in my portfolio here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/67547.jsp

Pintaras, Prestariang, SKP Resources, Jobstreet, NTPM, CBIP, Homeritz, Willow, Datasonic, Magni, Latitude, Scientex, Tasco. In fact more than half of them are growth stocks. But they were bought not at high valuation.

So which stock here that I am terrible at that as in your sentence here? "you are terrible in it." in your statement?

And which growth stock you have recommended which is terrible good?

4) Can you show your theoretical background to prove your growth story against my only statements mentioned in my above post? I can show you mine.

a) "Look for companies with high return on capital, in ROE and ROIC, and not chasing revenue and profit growth without ROE or ROIC higher than the cost of capitals."

b) "It was a double whammy as the shares were bought at a high valuation with high growth expectations which did not materialize."

5) Of course Buffett and Munger are successful investors; more of buying good business at reasonable prices. They do not "chase" growth stocks at high price. Do they?

6) You and I are not Buffett and Munger. We can never be.

This is the type of articles investors should read and learn from it.

Look for companies with high return on capital, in ROE and ROIC, and not chasing revenue and profit growth without ROE or ROIC higher than the cost of capitals.

Look for companies with little debts as economic downturn can cause misery to the companies and their investors. Companies shouldn't have high debts, what more to say about individual investors. Investors with high leverage and margin financing are certainly looking for trouble.

Cash flow is very important. Good cash flow can meet any challenge, as the article said. How many individual investors pay any attention to cash flow? I am afraid very few do. Ignore cash flow at your own peril.

Yes, dividend. Earnings can be faked, but not real and consistent good dividend.

Last but not least, do not put all your eggs in one basket. This is a good maxim in investing. It is the only free lunch in investing.

A friend of mine ignored all the above. Unfortunately it is like a perfect storm. He was unlucky in a sense as he lost quite badly in a concentrated portfolio of a few major stocks with heavy margin financing. Those few stocks were selected mainly based on some high revenue and profit growth expectations and disregard on return of capitals which were very low and little cash flow.

Coincidentally the share prices of all of those stocks lost heavily when the general market was actually up in the last few years. It was a double whammy as the shares were bought at a high valuation with high growth expectations which did not materialize. The problem was accentuated the last few months when the market fell abruptly.

This is no bullshit story.

While I will not buy many of the stocks in talkcock's portfolio, and it has not been performing well since posting, I would like to give my opinions here:

1) I respect talkcock's picks and I believe he has his good reasons for doing so. Time will tell. But whether they will perform well is actually immaterial to me. It is just some sharing.

2)It is laugable one should judge the return on investment of someone's stock pick in a three week investment period, as investment is a long term endeavour, not a three week punting experience.

3) The prices of the stocks were based on the day the portfolio was put up in i3investor, ie on 17th January 2015, the day when the small and mid cap stocks in Bursa was at his recent high, unfortunately. At least this person is honorable and not trying to fudge his entry prices to look good and then boast around. Many people can see it.

4) Even that his portfolio with a loss of just 0.3%, is not too bad.

5) His pseudo name may be talkcock, but in actual fact, he talks sense, at least that is what I feel.

6) Please you can criticize the stocks he picks with your reasons, and hopefully you are able to, and not engaging in personal attack.