Posted by CCCL > May 3, 2015 09:38 AM | Report Abuse

Thanks KC, follow these criteria like having a GPS....
Wonder Coldeye's still keeping the above stocks till today?


Me:Those aren't ColdEye's stocks. Those stocks were stocks i3 forumers seek my opinions a couple of years ago and they were qualified following ColdEye's criteria.

If you want ColdEye's stocks, go here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/75950.jsp

Posted by ks55 > May 1, 2015 10:46 AM | Report Abuse

Again a word of caution. Don't commit 100% of your cash asset in share market. Always keep some for rainy days. Worse still if you try to buy on margin in this coming turbulence market.

Think safe, play safe, invest safe. If want to punt, punt safe.


Me: Well said. I always like this type of saying in investing.

Posted by SpeedyBoy > Apr 29, 2015 09:29 PM | Report Abuse
KC, a very good lesson, especially for the newbies. Great job !

Posted by sunztzhe > May 1, 2015 01:23 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz,
your comments here had piqued my curiosity...hahaha..you seem to enjoy the staged theatrics in KNM forum...there is a real possibility these "theatrical forumers" are paid actors or possibly operators to entice interest in KNM stock...sorry..I am not enticed at all by these theatrics and always give it a miss...

Thanks guys for your comments. Some people may think that I pick on certain stocks, for example KNM. But I really have no intention on pouring cold water to others who say so positive about KNM. I just couldn't understand why small retail investors got cheated again and again by this stock. Well unless they also agree that KNM is such a wonderful company.

Suckers come, suckers go. It is just like the change of seasons. It is none of my business to criticize other stocks, even though it may be out of good intention. But I think may be I shouldn't impose what I think is good intention on other. Yeah, just let it go.

I like to watch other people doing investing, other than fundamental investing in this article here. Let us see how they do it in KNM.

“now oils price USD 58.. tomolo Knm sure UP
Crude oil chart pointing to above USD60 ~70....
KNM - signal Bullish reversal... + Oil price Up ..... Tomorrow morning price may gap Up....”

Me: Oil price has anything to do with KNM’s share price. That would be interesting, because two years ago oil price was very high, but KNM was only 40+ sen a share. Wow, can even predict oil price. All I know, nobody has been proven in academic study to have that ability.

“My banker friend said its safer to enter at price 0.55 and below, what do you think? Should we wait or enter now?
Close gap of 0.67
Sigh.... I went in at RM 0.710 leh... Dont know can cover back or not leh....
ok, then i should direct buy at 0.64! buy call~
close the eye.. sai lang buy!”

Me: Is there anybody talking about value? No feel of value, how do you know how much to pay. Some more sai lang. Wow, braveheart!

“it will take some times david but be patient. this counter never let me down
institutional start collecting good background oil & gas stock....put a watch on Perisai/KNM for your next 30% gain for next few months....”

Me: You are really the “chosen one” So many people lost money buying at above RM10 10 years ago.
Institutional investors collecting? Which institutional investors? Still not scared the last time they lost their underware!

“KNM direct proxy to RAPID
KNM no longer only O&G counter, friends.......
Ya, it's renewable play now”

Me: KNM direct proxy to RAPID! Wow, wow, wow!
Wow wow wow again for a renewable energy play.

Posted by arkadion8 > Apr 30, 2015 12:01 PM | Report Abuse
"对我来说，投资是一门重要的理财学问。投资可以降低风险，也可以增加本人的分析思考知识。至少，晚上可以好好睡吧，不会太担心明天是否要减少损失，多么心疼啊！"

Wonderful citation by arkadion8 and let me translate it.

Posted by truthseeker1 > Apr 27, 2015 06:17 PM | Report Abuse
Timing of this blog created? Sell on news or sell by blog creator?


Looks like you are in the habit of personal attacking people writing posts, especially those who write with facts and figures, and plausible stories to tell.

Fronkten share price has been rising for quite some time. Today it encounters a correction, just like all other technology stocks. And you come out with this personal attack?

Truthseeker or shit thrower?

Posted by TAFA > Apr 27, 2015 03:46 PM | Report Abuse
i have invest in UT using fundsupermart platform towards the end of 2012..the return is quite good for my investment.So far i have gain 25.79% and 17.44% respectively for AMB Dividend Fund and Kenanga Syariah Growth Fund..If not due to oil price crash my return would be better..As long as my fund are outperforming EPF return it's good enough for me..

Your Dividend fund returned 9.6% a year, certainly not bad.

Your Growth fund returned just 6.6% a year, just equals the EPF dividend last year. Don't forget any fund comes with risk, whereas EPF is almost risk free.

So your Dividend Fund may or may not outperformed EPF in term of risk-adjusted return, but your Growth Fund definitely is not better than EPF, risk-adjusted wise.

Posted by Kevin Wong > Apr 26, 2015 06:34 PM | Report Abuse
Over the long term, ""anytime is a good time to invest"".

Kevin is a great compounder. Compounding is the eight wonder of the world. Hard to go wrong with that.

A truly professional financial adviser, one who adhere to the code of ethics of professionalism, who are following a proper process, take care of clients' interest, sense of fiduciary duty,etc.

ks55,your son's problem was a mis-presentation by the planner. A with profit insurance policy can never yield a return of even 5%, considering the upfront fees paid to the insurance agent/financial planner,and the insurance coverage.

Yeah, often the financial himself is in the dark about it. Those who know have their own interest first, not yours.

Posted by plumberii > Apr 26, 2015 01:55 PM | Report Abuse
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."
Lao Tzu

Sorry, no disrespect to my ancestor Lao Tzu. He could be wrong too. Ha.

I am not trying to predict. If we are now on the downward trend, it will be senseless & foolish of me to go out and invest 99% of my wealth in shares, properties, etc etc. Knowing what is happening, analyse it and then decide on your next step.

I have mentioned it before somewhere, big companies like Shell use their knowledge in their look ahead scenario business studies. I am pretty sure they don't get them all right all the time. To me, some look ahead & planning will put one in a better boat than the other one. Maybe Lao Tzu did not know of this - failing to plan is planning to fail. Ha.


Lao Tzu is well respected philosopher, even today. Respect was earned, especially his.

Certain principle or philosophy is evergreen, whether it was thousands of years ago, or now.

Anyway we are not talking about investing 99% of your money, one should never do that even in an upmarket, because an upmarket can just turn into a down market, sometimes abruptly.

We are talking about predicting the market, not about planning. Planning is done by most companies every year, I believe, not only Shell.

By the way, why do you think the market is in a down trend now?

Posted by contemplator > Apr 26, 2015 12:50 PM | Report Abuse
Mr KC, when u read through the comments in i3, you will find that 80% of them cares only the stock price of tmr or next week. Only a minority care about intrinsic value of the business... Efficient market won't exist due to some typical human behaviour

Contemplator, kind of agree with you.

Posted by plumberii > Apr 26, 2015 12:12 PM | Report Abuse

Where are we now on the greed-fear chart above?



"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."
Lao Tzu


So some rules here:

1) Don't lose money, or try not to lose too much. Cut loss when you think you may be wrong is a good idea. But if you check and check and find nothing wrong, then it may be a different story.

2) Adhere to the 8 wonder of the world, the power of compounding. It works

3) Look for values.

If you pay half the price to buy something, even it goes doen in price, it is unlikely you lose much.

Kong Hui,

You are a fair financial adviser. Your type of financial adviser who align the interest of clients' with his own is hard to find. It is a secret recipe for success.

Wish you success. You will.

Good on you.

Posted by Chinchiasong > Apr 25, 2015 11:52 PM | Report Abuse

Hi KC, wht is ur stock pick Ah? Solli I slow a bit but hope you can share moving forward pick


If you can follow the stock picks from public forums and make money, ching chia song loh.

soli, I can't give stock pick for you to make money. I don't even know I can make money or not, in the short term, for those stocks I wrote about.

But bear in mind, no such thing as free lunch in this world.

Posted by Genw > Apr 25, 2015 09:38 PM | Report Abuse

Please forgive me for posing this stupid question.

I came across explanation of ROIC formula from oldschoolvalue.com by Jae Jun. His formula on Invested capital is quite similar to yours, but he minus Excess cash at the end of his formula. Is Excess cash important?

And his formula on excess cash is so complicated that eventually he changed the formula of Invested capital to,
Invested Capital = Total Equity +Short Term Debt + Capital Lease Obligations + Long Term Debt

Can you shed some light on this? I was reading your article on ELSOFT evaluation by using ROIC, i am hoping that i can use the indicator as you did and yield the same value


Financial statement analysis is an art. Many people do it differently. My opinion is Jae Jun has changed his concept that it makes a hell of difference for companies with a lot of excess cash, cash which they do not need for the core operations and can be distributed to shareholders without affecting its operations. It is also not appropriate for companies having other investments. It makes the ROIC much lower and not reflecting the true picture.

Risk and return for a business and non-operating asset say cash are totally different and shouldn't be lumped together.

I tend to use his previous concept.

Posted by CHONG Kong Hui > Apr 25, 2015 12:03 PM | Report Abuse

Invest UT with Wrap Account, pay lowest fee, increase the probability of high return.
Open Wrap Account with Financial Adviser, they are independent from fund houses.

www.AskChong.com


Kong Hui, how much do you charge for the wrap account per year? And how does this wrap account fees impact on the return?

My opinion is the value of a professional adviser should be his sound advice to his clients with a fee, not from any value added from unit trust investment with him. Wrap fee only extract more value from investors.

Posted by NOBY > Apr 23, 2015 05:53 PM | Report Abuse
KC, btw I must say this is a very good informative article... thank you...
Realistically, I think most investors who invested in unit trust will probably do worse than average because they may switch in and out often and try to time the market. Worse still they may not stick with the same fund and may move around year in year out trying to find the best performing fund. Personally, this is my experience and the money that I withdrew from EPF to invest in these Public Mutual fund is actually not earning much more than the EPF returns due my actions.


Noby, you are not alone.

This is one of the biggest reasons for individual investor under-performance. The study done by Fidelity Investments should highlight this. Investors in Fidelity, one of the most successful mutual funds lost money during a period of time where the fund made 29% annually. Investors would pull their money out of the fund during periods of poor performance, and send it in during good periods.

I have the feeling that individual stock investors do the same thing, buy stocks (may be good stocks) when they are already chased up sky high by selling stocks (good stocks with fundamentals still intact) which have been beaten down,may be because of just a poor quarterly report, only to experience the power of mean reverting.

Most people are chasing return and few look at risk. In investing where return is full of uncertainties, it pays to look at risk adjusted return, Sharpe ratio or whatever.


Posted by Pakcik Saham > Apr 25, 2015 12:03 AM | Report Abuse

Better than keep in EPF account below 7%(For EPF investment member schame)

Posted by sosfinance > Apr 25, 2015 10:23 AM | Report Abuse

If we do a CAR of EPF, it is only about 5% to 5.5%. Online UT provider is a good idea.

There are only a few ETF traded in Bursa, just like other shares, including a bond fund and a couple of foreign indices etf. FBM KLCI etf is one of them. The choice is very limited. The annual fee charged for FBMKLCI etf is 0.5%, bond fund much less, and foreign index etf not cheap, I think.

The main problem is very few of them and you can't get what you want to invest in certain sector as you wish.

Posted by ks55 > Apr 23, 2015 04:11 PM | Report Abuse

kcchongnz -- Can you please tell us why out of 19 funds removed from PRS scheme, 13 belongs to Public Mutual?

Why these funds were removed?
How bad were they underperformed?
How if these funds were to compare with REITs at the time they were launched and the day they were removed ?
If hard to get the statistic for that day, using today's value also can.

This is to prove my theory that Unit Trust can never be a better alternative to direct involvement with REITs, albeit high entry commission and annual management fees they charged.


ks55, unfortunately I am not involved in the unit trust industry now. I was a licensed financial adviser before and did know and would able to find out then, but not now. Sorry can't help.

By virtue that REITs investing is a direct investment without all those problems and fees described in this article, i do believe that Reits will perform better than UT.

[Posted by NOBY > Apr 23, 2015 01:19 PM | Report Abuse

Frankly speaking Public Mutual used to be good, but as their market share increase, they need to keep launching new funds to keep up with the inflow. They have so many Malaysian funds which frankly invest in almost the same thing. The only fund which I see may have some value are their small cap funds, but the fund has been closed for some time.

For me, if I m looking for outperformance, I will typically go for small cap funds as the investment universe of these funds are less efficient hence the long term returns have higher chance of outperformance. If you buy a big cap fund which buys mostly the stocks on the index and charges you a 2% annual management fee, how can you hope to outperform the index ? ]


Good comments above. But what do you think is think is Public Mutual and his agent’s interests, to build big funds and lots of funds to get more fees for assets under management, or to try hard to earn more return for unit holders by investing in small capitalized stocks and risk being wrong? Whose interest will they care if there is a conflict?

Posted by bsngpg > Apr 22, 2015 10:50 PM | Report Abuse

I asked my friends who invest in Bursa, 10% beat the broad mktg, 30% making positive return but less than the broad mktg and 60% are losing money to Bursa.
About the same %(1:3:6) was quoted by the 40 year experience sifu in Bursa, Mr Len Yan, in one of his article published in Nanyang sometime ago.

I also asked my friends who invested in Public Mutual, almost all are making 6-10% annual return from Public Mutual in reasonable time frame.


Unbiased and excellent comments. We will deal with the Public Mutual Fund soon, with facts.

Posted by NOBY > Apr 22, 2015 05:38 PM | Report Abuse

For me, ETFs are a quick and easy way to get exposure to a certain market. They have low upfront cost (nothing more than brokerage you pay vs exorbitant service charges if you buy through agents) and low loading costs (low management fee - normally less than 1% of fund NAV).

Good comments. If I were to invest in overseas market, i will do the same thing too.

Posted by ks55 > Apr 22, 2015 04:43 PM | Report Abuse

Those who are not confident to invest direct in stock market, my advise is leave your money in EPF.

The above is a very sound advice, in my opinion.

]Posted by ks55 > Apr 22, 2015 04:29 PM | Report Abuse

For the 50 sen Unit Trust unit you buy, 5 sen goes to agents (so called CFP). Another 45 sen keep with the Unit Trust Manager to invest. Sure make money? Bullshit.

Just find out how many people lost their hard earned money putting in PRS.
Just find out how unit trust that participated in PRS got removed. Unit Trust really sucks.

Don't believe you just read Public Mutual Annual Rpt to see how much it sucks. ]

Good comments. Just to let you know that you can invest in unit trust by yourself in the FundSuperMart platform without going through unit trust agent. The sale charge is lower at 2%, I think, much lower than your 10%. Which fund charges so high? May be some overseas special investments for high net worth investors. Nothing is free in this world.

Posted by kakashit > Apr 16, 2015 02:38 PM | Report Abuse

if risk free rate increases, for example bank negara rate hike, how would affect the valuation of insas-pa?

Looking at the bond valuation formula in the link below

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/71783.jsp

As risk free rate increases, "i" increases and hence the value of PA, P, will be lower. No doubt about that.

But what if interest rate goes down?

Who is so certain that interest rate will go up, and not staying the same, or go down? Statistically, nobody can predict the direction of interest rate correctly and consistently.

Not forgetting that Insas PA can be used as RM1 cash for conversion of warrant.

This appears in the other Elsoft thread.

[Posted by donfollowblindly > Apr 14, 2015 09:50 AM | Report Abuse

No bank coverage. Don't follow half past 6 analyst here. ]


Quite similar to this posting more than 2 years ago on Pintaras when its adjusted price is about RM1.40. Pintaras is now RM4.00+


[Posted by iafx > Feb 17, 2013 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

there is no securities house covering this counter - why? no need to reply here, go & do yr homework.

ptaras solely a family business, no liquidity, core value is never about retail investors, they would rather place $ into private fun(d). mega infra prjs r not forever, after ge13 many will realize "lots of prjs in hand" on the "paper", but only few r running & probably not running at the size stated, not to mention not all running prjs make good $ - what u read is only lum-sum, data in the passed.

ptaras a pick only bcos it is small & relately safe given its cash (also means $ not utilize); maybe could exercise bonus (hopefully not yet another private placement). given its outlook, it is actually too expensive already. given that price, there r a number of other counters worth better than this one. those who grabbed it during the 1.4-1.5 days a bless of god (no need say anything :). those who buy above 2.7 should continue to assess the viability of holding this counter. GCruey could have done a right thing by disposing it now & wait for next opportunity.

god bless u ptaras to issue 1:1 bonus share, good luck all :) ]

Posted by donfollowblindly > Mar 2, 2015 10:34 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

The purpose of this blog is to ask you to chase Insas W (TP 35sen with exercise price RM1) which will be listed tomorrow. Is it worth 57% premium as calculated? Why so high? Why not trade at discount like Pesona W?


35 sen too high for Insas WB? Just sold some at this price this morning to reduce my weighting in Insas and its derivatives. The 35 sen as valued in the article was achieved in less than one and a half months. Still got 4 years 10 and a half months before it matures.

What say you donfollowblindly?

You must understand the value of WB, with 5 years to maturity, has its value in time value, not in intrinsic value. It pays for you to learn about derivatives pricing from me.

Posted by apini > Apr 13, 2015 08:55 PM | Report Abuse

I do pay Mr kcchong a single sen, I do not join his on line course, yet I learnt many valuation techniques from his articles. esp the calculation and implication of EY and ROIC and also NNAV in the financial anlisis. without his unselfish sharing of knowledge, I would not have known Elsoft is a good buy well before this article, I would not dare to pour all my FD into frontkn which moving up trend now, and I am very confident i am going to close my portfolio account with a handsome return by the end of the year.
so I take this opportunity to express my thought and say a great THANK YOU to Mr kcchong. ( I hope with this good words, it is enough to cover the tuition fee I supposed to pay you)
THANK YOU VERY MR KCCHONG.


Well done apini.

Tis goeth down to a fundamental aspect that “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest” - Benjamin Franklin

You are successful in investing because your quest of knowledge, the time and effort you are willing to put in. Many of us work very hard for the companies we are employed to make money for them. I do not see the reason why one shouldn't work hard for his own personal finance, such as putting in some time and effort to learn some investment skills.

apini, your kind words motivate me. Thanks you.

Posted by donfollowblindly > Apr 13, 2015 06:18 PM | Report Abuse

Since finally admitted he has retired(as oppose to people in i3 thinking he still work in NZ) 10 years ago in 1 of his blogs, he can only recommend a new purchase after disposing another(Insas?).


Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 08:12 PM | Report Abuse
my original comment is CLEARLY stated ABOVE all comments!! how to delete and still above kcchongnz's cmment?? kcchongnz is clearly once again pusing his cerita, anyone still wanna take her word seriously so be it

so call live in NZ? pui pui pui! one hell of sickening liar!



Umm, there are a lot of similarities on the above two posts. Why have to change id? Lost credibility?

Who said and think I work in NZ? I am enjoying my life in NZ; golfing, fishing, trampling etc.

I don't live in NZ? Tell you what, I have a few students in NZ too participating in my online courses. I am not sure if they want to identify themselves or not.

Think of it yes, I am doing something to earn some money, but I don't consider it as working, as I enjoy it immensely.

Yeah, I have disposed of some Insas just today. Too much value weighted now with the rise in the price these few days. Still gone some more, Insas, Insas warrant and Insas PA. Thanks for the concern. Oh yeah, I talked about them here. Just to share with you. Hope you have the ability to read.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/71783.jsp

No, you read it wrongly. I never recommend shares to anyone to buy. Just share knowledge. You need to improve your English reading skill.

No, I seldom buy and sell shares. Yes, I still hold many of my shares in my portfolio since 2009. Want to know my return? Please read Table 1 in the article here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/74098.jsp

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 13, 2015 05:27 PM | Report Abuse

wow, long time no see the great sifu !!! : )


I thought I have just written a five-part article on the stock market?

I hope you were not referring to me in the last few words of your sentence, for that one should be Icon8888 who has been contributing immensely with your numerous stock picks in i3investor to share.

Well done Icon8888

Human behaviour is the strangest thing. See these comments from the icap thread.

[Posted by penangkia75 > Mar 17, 2015 02:35 PM | Report Abuse
Hooi,observe u continue to collect ICA{, may I know what is ur reason behind? I had stop collect it. Thx]

[Posted by hooi > Mar 17, 2015 07:01 PM | Report Abuse
The reason is simple, i trust Teng Boo!]


Six years ago on April 1 2009, icap traded at an adjusted price of RM1.40 and it closed at about RM2.35 end of March 2015. The total return is 68% so far.

The total return of the broad market was 131% during the same period, or about twice higher than the return of icap.

If one holds the portfolio of stocks mentioned in this thread which return 521% during the same period, icap's is terribly miserable in its return.

Is there a psychologist here who can explain to me this statement?

[Posted by hooi > Mar 17, 2015 07:01 PM | Report Abuse
The reason is simple, i trust Teng Boo!]

Posted by Kevin Wong > Apr 6, 2015 09:04 PM | Report Abuse

Hi KC,
I'm just a very average growth investor. Since i first started trading in 1994, my humble portfolio returns is nothing to shout about...9.3% per annum.

My investing method is very eclectic...i am definitely not a value investor haha!


Congrats, your $10000 invested in 21 years ago has become $65000. Not bad. The real return, after taking into consideration of inflation is easily about 5%, and that is good.

That is also about the long-term return of the broad market over those years. And I believe, you are better than at least 80% of the retail investors in Malaysia.

But why not engaging in value investing? Value investing doesn't mean buying cheap stocks only. It could be any good value or growth stocks selling cheap. See what the investors of Graham and Dodds have achieved here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/50988.jsp

Kevin,

You are one of the very few investors who follow what Woody Allen said:

"Most of success in life is in just showing up."

I can see the kind of extra-ordinary return you have been getting following this principle of investing in the market, just like the extra-ordinary return of the portfolio mentioned in this article.

Very hard to find experience value investors like you in public forums.

Well done.

Posted by sarifahselinder > Apr 5, 2015 02:07 PM | Report Abuse

I tak tahu la I lagi baca lagi worry but dont know when the next big crash will come.

U tahu what I m saying tak... u buat I risau by saying price jatuh 80% in 6 months that kind of things but never tell how to see the signs how to get ready

Bikin takut je


Sorry, you baca tapi tak tapi the full message behind. Never mind, if you are interested, I can post another one to "draw the legs of the snakes" for you to see. Tapi satu post lagi oh. Boleh tahan tak?

Posted by sarifahselinder > Apr 5, 2015 12:26 PM | Report Abuse

Oii bunch of senile old timers, sudah la rindukan rindukan the past lebih baik look into the future

Macam mana.. When will the next crash come?? How bad will it be??

Dah lama I post no answers je



Kennedy said "we celebrate the past to awaken the future." History is a passion, an intellectual discipline and a vital element of learning, how can we improve the future if we do not understand the past...

As for your questions:

1) Nobody owes you anything. If someone gives you something, be thankful to that. But nobody owes you nothing.

2)Your questions are best answered by snake oil salesmen, not me.

3) Your questions show the level of naivety you have about the market. It is good that if you can ask nicely. Maybe someone is kind enough to answer you.

But still I doubt anyone can give an answer in certain term.

Oh yeah, if you do spend some time and effort to read and understand the posts, I believe you will learn a lot and will be well prepared to invest in the market.

Of course this is my own opinion on my own articles. Not counted.

ks55,

Good points.

But I think Parkson had a convincing growth story in the 2005 when it forayed into China market and its EPS increased from 42 sen to 79 sen.

As usual, the growth story faltered after investors paid too much for that expected growth.

Post 1
Posted by Kukuman > Apr 4, 2015 11:28 AM | Report Abuse

What is the message underlining this article? All the gloom and doom about stock market as usual. get real !! That is the reality of stock market since donkey years. It is not just recently discovered phenomenal. Live with it. No need to hit the drum telling story after story about the gloom and doom of stock market. Every doomsayer will have their field day once a while so is great story. Why not spread good things and good story instead of harping gloom and doom story. please have a positive mindset

Posted by Kukuman > Apr 4, 2015 01:56 PM | Report Abuse
Who decides who is the wiser than the other. Only the self-serving will say other is a fool


Me: Let's look at these two posts here, one by Kukuman above, post 1 and one email sent to me by a reader here, post 2 below.

First of all who said who is a fool? I didn't say who.

Who had decided and had made a judgment of others? "hit the drum". "story after story", "Doomsayer", and most of all "positive mindset"

Talk about "positive mindset". And now compare who has a "positive mindset", post 1 or post 2?



Post 2

Dear Mr Chong,

Has been follow up some of your articles sometime and myself also
holding some stocks in my hand now. I was attracted by your article
posted recently:-

"Is the stock market heaven or hell? Part 4, Lesson from US Subprime
Mortgage Crisis"

I totally agree that year 2008-2009 was a good time for me to invest
in stock market that time as many good quality stocks were traded in
discount. I lucky enough to pick some good companies but some stocks I
was selling too early. I think I am very weak on how to judge or
smelling a company with very good potential to grow in future which
made me regret till now. However, I am willing to learn and knowing
that the world is changing every moment so we should not stop learning
regardless of age.

I looking to hear from you.

Have a nice day.

(Name withheld)

A fool sees not the same tree that a wise man sees.
William Blake

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/74061.jsp

為何散戶老是股市輸家?
現在回頭來看，那些什麽明星基金經理、交易員，都是包裝出來的；分析師發布的報告，也都是為了應付差事，拿一份工資。真正的操盤手是根本不看這些的。
現在你明白為什麽你一賣就漲，一買就跌啊？因為你跟大部分人的行為是一致的。

Suckers are borne everyday.

The stock market is not forgiving for those who are ignorant.

Calvin,

Excellent relate of you true experience in the stock market. I hope you don't mind I will be using some of your examples in my book later.

I would like to summarize some points in your comments.

1)The stock market can offer one excellent opportunity to build up wealth. Imagine if you have invested after the crash of 1998 when KLCI dropped to its lowest at 262?

2)The market is also a place where huge destruction of wealth occurs as shown by Calvin's narration of his friends punting experience in the stock market. Some of them were contemplating suicide. Well it happened to the legendary trader Jesse Livermore.

3) Market is unpredictable. So don't be greedy like Calvin's three friends who already had a few million net worth which was substantial in 1998, and wanted to make more by borrowing huge amount of money. Yes, never borrow money to invest. Never use margin financing. It is extremely difficult for you to get up after these kinds of fall if you borrow to speculate. Some people made big gain by leveraging and boast around, but most of them having seen a black swan before. There would be a few times more people who used margin finance and lost their underwear. Of course these people wouldn't tell you that.

4) Do invest in the stock market, note the word "invest". Invest with the money you have, and can afford to put there for years. As we have seen, market is a place to build long-term wealth. See how after the crisis, good stocks all recovered and to much higher prices even before the plunge; Maybank, Public Bank, Nestle, BAT, Tenaga, Guiness, and many more.

5) Is it really easy to time the market as posted by Kevin here?

Posted by Kevin Wong > Apr 2, 2015 11:27 AM | Report Abuse
who said its impossible to time mkt, Bogle got it all wrong!

Anyone foresaw that the Second Board Index ran up by 156% to 656 points in just 16 months on March 1997? And who had timed it correctly by selling their shares off then before SBI plunged to by 43% in just 5 months, up 32% one month later, and then crashed by 62% to 77 points half a year later at the end of August 1998?

Bogle's data were based on academic research with all the rigorous computer back testing. He didn't just plug figures from the sky. What is the basis of that statement that states that "Bogle got it all wrong?"

Intelligent Investor,

Great points. Typical value investor.

Calvin,

Please carry on with your valuable comments. Oh yeah, I have incorporated some of your comments in my posts.

Hah, our comments got flagged!

KNM's stories are all the same as this apa ini “Sawadee Kap”. Whatever it means. This is the same story all the time, over and over again since 10 years ago when its share price was more than RM10 apiece.

Finance and investing is a simple thing. Why are analysts keep making calls like this and made so many small time punters an speculators losing money all these years?

I doubt analysts are that stupid too. They are extremely smart. Smart in making money for themselves, not you unfortunately.

Suckers come suckers go. It is just like the four seasons.

Posted by Jaack1 > Apr 1, 2015 09:02 AM | Report Abuse

Good morning Mr Chong,

Do you see signs pointing to a 'crash' in the foreseeable future?


Market is like a pendulum. It goes up but there is a maximum height it can go. Similarly it can go down but it will go up again. It is like the four seasons in the North and the South but don't think that there is always summer in Malaysia year long that you don't have to worry about the season comes season goes.

Over here when Autumn comes is predictable, but it is not the case of the stock market. I have to say I won't be able to predict when the market will rise or crash. If someone tells me when the crash will come exactly, I just laugh it off, because very few people has done that correctly and consistently well.

It is only our opinion of the market now. Is it at the stage of irrational exuberance? Is it too high now? Has it run up so high so fast? Isn't there nothing worthwhile to invest in now?

To me I tend to think the answers are all "No". Again I am just using the past as a guidance.

Again I could be wrong. Didn't I say market is unpredictable?

Posted by rambutan > Mar 31, 2015 09:42 PM | Report Abuse

Thank you for all the long term charts. They are very useful. Are you going to do a part 3? For the new millennium?


Still writing. Two big memorable crashes in the new millennium.

However, people are more interested in which are the hot stocks, big boys buying what stocks, which companies getting big jobs here and abroad, which companies are involving big corporate moves etc.

Are you sure you are interested in market crashes?

Lets see all the assumptions here:

1)Phase 1 with capacity of 200k litres/day
2)expected to be completed in 4Q15
3) fully operation in FY16
4)Phase 2 will have similar capacity
5)needs 12 months to construct
6)Equity investment for Phase 1 is about RM89m
7)estimated payback period of <5 years.
8)Price of ethanol THB 27/litres
9)cash cost of THB 15- 16/litres
10)Cost of THB 2.3 kg for cassava
11)utilisation of 80%
12)7% financing rate
13)72% effective stake
14)Phase 1 has potential to contribute additional ~RM22m (or add 17%) to bottomline
15)Phase 1 will boost our TP to RM1.03 (+17%).
16)boot ethanol usage to 3m litres/day by 2015 and 9m litres/day by 2021.
17)We believe the majority of bio-ethanol consumption remains E10 95
18)The recent JV with Korea-based Hansol (40:60) will be bidding for some biomass projects in Malaysia. The cont ract size is ranging from RM100m to RM300m. We understand there are numerous tenders for biomass projects.
19)With the RAPID project proceeding, we expect to see continuous contract newsflow
20)We understand that KNM has a good chance to secure subcont ractor jobs from some refinery package in the near term
21)Together with UK Peterborough biomass project, we expect to see significant contribution of income from recurring
22)i) Announcement of more RAPID contract win(s)
23)ii) Financial closing of EnergyPark Peterborough;
24)Additional contribution from Renewable Energy business in Thailand
25)unchanged 11x FY16 P/E
26)target price of RM0.88
27)etc

Wow! More than 20 assumptions.

“You don’t have to pee on an electric fence to learn not to do it.” - Charlie Munger

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/62293.jsp

Don't forget that "Investment knowledge pays the best dividends"