Posted by Steve Jub > Jul 16, 2013 09:44 AM | Report Abuse
KCchong, just wondering why some of the good stock like MYEG will keep surging even the PE is so high?

This is called the greater fool theory. The notion suggests that there will always be a greater fool to buy from you what you yourself purchased at far too high a price. Alas, at market tops, all fools have bought, so there’s no new fool to bail them out.

Myeg is definitely a good company with good contacts for jobs. 18% growth in net income last year. Great ROIC of more than 35#. Excellent cash flows with good quality earnings, healthy balance sheet.

But at PE of 40, price-to-book of 9.2, no matter how good the company is, I am not willing to pay that price. That price has incorporated very high future expectations on Myeg.

Posted by aunloke > Jul 14, 2013 07:36 PM | Report Abuse
I think most of the hidden gems have been uncovered and the market is in the late stage of a mania though it may move up further.I would prefer asset protection to taking a big risk for may be a small gain.With all the bad news stacked against US ,EU,japan and of course our country I don't think we can have a superbull so the risk reward ratio may not be favourable in taking big commitment. Care to discuss ?

Is there a a mania? If you go to the wet market, do you hear uncles and aunties giving stock tips? When you go to a coffee shop, are there a lot of people talking about which stock to buy? When you have a gathering with your relatives, is stock a hot topic? In the media (non-business), are there a lot of talk on the stock market?

Bad news? Can't recall which year no bad news. 4 years ago after the sublime crisis, people said we were heading to the great depression. One year after that, the Dubai problem, the PIGS problems, the QE problems, the China problems, the fear of General election etc etc.

So how ah?

pathew, that is not a calculator. That is a messy spreadsheet of financial statement analysis and valuations. I have sent to about 150 people but only a handful find it useful. So I am not sure if you want. If so give me your email.

Posted by htyeap125 > Jul 13, 2013 11:42 PM | Report Abuse
Hi Mr kcchong, why is there a call for the sell of cmmt n the target price is adjusted downward to 1.51. Pls advise,tq

good question but how do you expect me to know? But as usual, though I don't know, I will try to find something and make a comment. Take it with a pinch of salt.

I have never followed this stock CMMT. I guess it is a REIT. This stock was trading between 1.85 to 1.90 until it suddenly dropped by a relatively large amount to 1.65 some time middle of June.

Hooray, I guessed it correctly, RHB made a sell call on 12/7/13, yes, after the drop, to a target price of 1.51. So of course many people followed the "expert" and the share continued to drop to 1.64.

So my answer and guess is, investment bank always make calls after the fact of which no one can benefit; and the public follows the calls of the so-called expert.

Anybody who wish to learn fundamental analysis can learn from this guy. He is not my brother though.

house, give me your email

Hi pathew, long time no see. Where did you hide?

No lah, it is not from me. It was houseofordos who put it up. Must thank him. I was just commenting only.

Shih, if not someone going to badmouth me here also.

Anyone else find my statement tipu pusing? Anyway I was answering a question from a forumer why the major shareholder of SKPRes selling his shares, not when I am doing any estimation of intrinsic value of anything. aiseh, he can't even differentiate what is "estimating the intrinsic value" and what is "why the major shareholder is selling his shares"

Appended below are the question and answer. Please tell me what is wrong with my reply, or is it this iafx bugger is kookoo one.

Posted by inwest88 > Jul 11, 2013 01:16 PM | Report Abuse
Thanks kcchong. But I am rather puzzled by the disposal by the major shareholders. It the share is under-valued, the company should be initiating share-buy backs. Also, why cant they wait for the prices to go higher before selling.

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 11, 2013 01:31 PM | Report Abuse X
inwest88, only the major shareholders know exactly why he keeps on disposing the shares. If I have so much stake in the company like him, I may want to dispose some to give to my children, buy a couple of villas in Queenstown, NZ, buy a few bungalows for my children, my mistresses etc etc. And I can also diversify my investment, use the proceeds to buy Kumpulan Fima, Pintaras Jaya, Haio, GAB, or invest in some startup companies to help entrepreneurship etc etc.

The company is already distributing good dividend, which is more tangible to shareholders than share buyback. The company also need cash for capital expenses for future growth.

Posted by iafx > Jul 11, 2013 01:35 PM | Report Abuse
hahahaa... kuat pusing cerita ni... hahahaa...

IB issuing the call warrant can press down the price of the underlying share the 5-days just before the settlement date. This will lower the settlement value of the call warrants. This can easily be done if the particular underlying share is illiquid. Not so easy for those big cap liquid stocks like Maybank because if IB sell with lower price, others especially institution investors can pick up if the price is undervalued.

IB, being cash rish can also jack up the price of underlying share long before the expiry of the warrant to entice retail punters to buy the call warrants. After selling the call warrants they withdraw support for the underlying share and buyers of those call warrants lose money.

A good market maker should provide fair prices for the warrants. The bid-ask spread should not be wide. He should always provide this good market making prices all the time so that there is liquidity.

Posted by iafx > Jul 15, 2013 03:44 PM | Report Abuse
also avoid "report" that keep turning like roti canai, copied and paste using formula from web and books, twisted story to suite someone else preference, until a simple roe also cannot get it right :D

Hey, welcome here. Please don't disappear again.

I have asked you numerous times about your accusations here. Here I ask again. Please be responsible and give substantiations;

1) How are my "reports" turning like roti canai?
2)What twisted stories I have told?
3)How is that I cannot get ROE right? So what is your understanding of ROE? Give examples.
4) You also said numerous times I bullshit. I have written hundreds of posts. Show me which particular post or posts I bullshit?

I have written many posts, many of them answering questions from forumers and I haven't encountered anyone (I mean anyone who is rational), accusing me of bullshitting, copy and paste, twisting, roti canai etc etc like what you have been doing.

Now is my take on you again.
1) You know nothing, absolutely nothing about finance and investments.
2) You have written 1929 posts, none, absolutely none at all which shows that you know anything about finance and investments.
3) Don't agree with the above? Please come to this thread created for us to discuss about finance and investment. Show that at least you know something, if not better than me.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900218979.jsp

Finding the intrinsic value of a company is more of an art than a science. Each person, using different assumptions will get different intrinsic value. It is not engraved in stone.

First place to find is from analysts' report. Usually they use "target price", usually basing on forward PE ratio of something. Many people in i3 forums also give their target prices, but take them with a pinch of salt.

Alternatively, try referring to what Ooi Teck Bee did for some of his stocks in i3, or using discount cash flow analysis like what housefordos and I did. But first you must know how to read and interpret financial statements, and time value of money.

Also take our opinions with a pinch of salt too.

Pay dirt

Mudajaya call warrants

Posted by houseofordos > Jul 15, 2013 12:52 AM | Report Abuse
DCF method to calculate HEVEABOARD intrinsic value
Discount rate :-10%
Projected growth for next 10 years - 5%
Terminal growth - 0%
Intrinsic value = 0.99
Margin of safety (22%)

Discount rate :-10%
Projected growth for next 10 years - 5%
Terminal growth - 3%
Intrinsic value = 1.41
Margin of safety (45%)

house, I got the exactly the same intrinsic value of Hevea as you do. It was just a coincidence as we are using different assumptions.

I will use the DCFA of a firm as Hevea has a capital structure of considerable debts of about 40%. Using the required return of 15% for equity and 8% for debt, the WACC is about 12%. I use 15% for equity because of its high debts and hence risky. In fact during the US sublime crisis in 2007/2008, Hevea almost went bankrupt due to its heavy debt then.

Hevea's margin is not consistent due to the nature of its business in particle board and furniture in the export market. Last year ebit margin (5.8%)is about the average for the last few years and hence I used that margin to obtain its ebit for the next few years. A growth rate of 5% and 3% is assumed for the next 5 years and subsequently as your. I also assume a tax rate of 25% which is very conservative as Hevea actually has tax credit last year.

Hevea also has about 42m warrants outstanding and using Black-Scholes option pricing, I obtained the value of this warrant of about 7.7 m. This value is subtracted from the intrinsic value due to the equity holders.

Hevea has an excess cash of about 28m which I have added into its total intrinsic value.

Somehow my estimation of its intrinsic value is the same as yours. So I think Hevea presents us a good investment with a margin of safety of more than 40%.

faberlicious,
You are right. Most industries are competitive. But I think some industries are more competitive, such as garment industry where cheap labour is everywhere in the third world.

But for Magni, i am more wary about the management. Who is the major shareholder of magni? Is the management credible? I am not sure about magni myself but i do have some doubts. It pays to check this thing out if you intend to invest heavy in magni, because on the surface, magni does seem to be a good company worthy of investing.

house, you got all the computation correctly done and you have chosen the best 2. Both of them are issued by CIMB, which is important too as CIMB is the best market maker.

Yeah, if you think Mudajaya share price will have a good run in the short to middle term, punting its call warrants will provide you with better windfall.

A premium of 10% means the underlying share must go up by 10%, or to the exercise price of that warrant, before the expiry of the warrant, then only you can make money buying the warrant at present price. So for CO, you must believe that this can happen within 6 months.

Both CO and CP have approximately the same implied volatility. I personally prefer CO though CP has a longer expiry date, (and CP in in-the-money but CO is out-of-the-money), but 6 months for CO is good enough for me. This is because it has CO has a higher gearing and effective leverage (gearing*delta)of 10.8 and 6.1 respectively. I also like its higher gamma (just being gibberish here).

Below is my tabulation of payoff for CO and CP at various prices of Mudajaya.

Mudajaya 2.50 2.58 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.23 3.69
CP -75.0% -55.0% 12.5% 25.0% 37.5% 50.0% 108% 223%
CO -100.0% -100.0% 4.2% 25.0% 45.8% 66.7% 163% 354%

Posted by faberlicious > Jul 14, 2013 09:27 PM | Report Abuse
Using Ooi Teik Bee Method 3 to calculate MAGNI-TECH INDUSTRIES IV
Method 3
ROE 18.12%
Rr 8.00%
NTA 1.91
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA 4.32
Current Price 2.04
Margin of Safety 52.77%
Potential gain 111.76%

faberlicious,
Well done. Some comments here.
This method of using ROE to value is a good, quick and simple method of valuation. It is especially useful for companies with assets closed to actual, present and marked to marker companies like banks, insurance companies, etc. If a company's asset is too historical, or with a lot of goodwill and intangibles, it may not be that accurate because "NTA" may not be real.

Your Rr of 8% appears to be a little too liberal to me. With a long-term corporate bond rate of 7% (not very sure of this, hope someone can enlighten), the risk premium is only 1%.

Specifically for magni, for me as I don't know enough of the management, and also the competitive industry, I personally would want to use a higher risk premium. I would use 12% as Rr.

Nothing is right or wrong here, just personal preference.

Daya ada Kaya tak?

Posted by Shareholderz > Jul 13, 2013 05:46 PM | Report Abuse
what about DAYA?

Posted by kcchongnz > May 31, 2013 08:20 AM | Report Abuse X
Daya, follow the expert
Posted by skyland > May 29, 2013 08:29 AM | Report Abuse
how about daya recommend by cold eye?

Not only cold eye recommended this, Philip Capital also recently strongly recommended this. This is what PC said:

"We like Daya for its huge outstanding order book of RM1.3bn which is 5x of its market cap. Despite the huge orders in hand, the management is still pushing for aggressive expansion. Investors looking for "cheap" share and trading at reasonable valuation yet has huge potential, Daya is a good choice."

Should we follow the expert? Daya is another construction company. Does it stand out as "special"? Well as far as growth is concerned as given by PC, it does seem Daya meets an attribute of a good company.

For me, I have Pintaras. Hence to invest in another construction company, it must be very good. Its net profit margin was only 7.1%. ROE and ROIC for 2012 is only 8.5% and 9% respectively. Nothing to shout about. In fact they are way below my requirement. Its balance sheet is ok lah with D/E ratio of 0.3. However there is no free cash flow. But of course its first quarter results 2013 has improved. But to me it is still too early to judge if the full year results will be also good.

I have said many times before as a civil engineer involving in construction. High order book doesn't necessary will translate to good profit. Often it is the contrary. To me high margin is more important.

So I will not be interested in it. Below is my assessment.

Daya a Good company? 0.270
Good governance ?
Durable business ?
Growth Yes
ROE No 8.5% <12%
ROTC Neutral 8.9% about WACC
Balance sheet OK D/E 0.33
Cash flow Neutral

Screens for investing
ROTC Neutral 9% about WACC
P/B Yes 1.4 <2.0
PE ratio Yes 17.0 <20

house,
Certainly. Show me yours and we discuss.

A good read on what is bonus issue.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2009-10-12/news/28384721_1_bonus-issue-bonus-shares-paid-up-equity

inwest88, i agree with you. But the risk is well before the announcement, insiders such as those in the company, investment banks doing the exercise, management and directors and their relative and friends etc already know the news. They know the behaviour of the market participants that they will buy the share at higher price once the announcement is made. So what do the insiders do? they would have bought the shares long ago and hence have jacked up the price somewhat.

So when the public hears the announcement, they will buy the shares also which the price has gone up way above the intrinsic value. What would the insiders do? Sell to you loh.

So what will happen at the end. say a month later? The price of the share would probably decline back to its adjusted intrinsic value. So those who buy the shares late would lose money, I believe most of the time.

Bonus issue

Bonus issue - Is it a bonus really? From below, assuming Company A announced a bonus 1 for 1, the paid up capital of the company changed from RM5 million to RM10 million. However, the Shareholders Funds does not change at all - remained at RM11 million. A bonus issue does not do anything to the fundamentals of the company.

Paid up capital 5,000,000
Retained earnings 6,000,000
total equity 11,000,000

After 0ne-for-one bonus
Paid up capital 10,000,000
Retained earnings 1,000,000
Total equity 11,000,000 Same

An example of account for bonus issue
The individual shareholder will get an extra 1 share for every 1 share that he holds, but the price will be divided into 2 from its original price. For example, if the price is being traded at RM1.00 after the ex-date, it will be readjusted to RM0.50. Investors that chase after bonus is actually chasing after something that does not have any impact to fundamentals - just accounting adjustment.

Source: http://www.intellecpoint.com/search?q=bonus

Posted by patricksim53 > Jul 13, 2013 06:41 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz increased liquidity through bonus issue? I say it is not so. It is increasing the amount of shares in the market so that more people can buy the share and let sentiments dictate its pricing. More shares in the market means more leeway for the price to move. Remember the story about owning Genting Bhd share when it started years ago. How much would you have made now if you had owned 1 lot then?

"increasing the amount of shares so that more people can buy" means increase liquidity of the shares loh.

If Genting hasn't done the bonus issue, share split or whatever, it must, I say must be selling for maybe a hundred ringgit per share now instead of RM10. It will work out to be the same thing whether the corporate exercises were carried out or not.

Nowadays buying share is at a lot of 100 shares, not 1000 shares before. 100 shares of Genting is only RM1000.

Investors (emphasis investors, not punters) invest in shares based on certain metrics, whether it is PE ratio, P/B, dividend yield or whatever.

So do you think Warren Buffet is so stupid of never split his Berkshire Hathaway shares? 1 share in 1995 was sold for USD25000. It is USD 175500 now. So the more Warren Buffet should split his share because few people can buy 1 share of BH. But why didn't he do it? Because he doesn't believe share split creates any value.

If the share price of a company is 1.00 before its share is split 2 from 1, its share price must be adjusted to 50 sen, because its earnings, net tangible asset etc is shared by double the number of shares. Buying any price above 50 sen is not a wise move.

The share price may go up slowly say to 60 sen in 6 months time. That is not because value is created by the exercise of share split. that is because its business is doing better, expected to earn 20% more in its income the following year. Or may be before the exercise, nobody notice that it was undervalued by 20%.

The share price may very well go down to 40 sen also. That is also not because the share split destroys value, but mainly because it is expected that the earnings is going to drop by 20%.

Of course for a big company like Genting doing this exercise, a few million spend on the corporate exercise won't hurt it so much. But for an ACE company, a few million spent for this fruitless exercise can make a significant dent on its balance sheet, hence I say can be a value destroyer.

Go check this company EAH to see how its adjusted share price dropped significantly some time after the exercise.

Yeah this is also nothing to do using rear wing mirrors or forward periscope view or not, or using FA or TA, or no A.

When I put say 10000 (equity) to invest in a company and get a return of 740 a year, or ROE of 7.4%, I may not be happy because I can get a return of say 10% from the stock market. So I might as well take back my 10000 (equity) and invest in the stock market.

But can Hevea liquidate all its properties, plant and equipment, inventories and get back the value of its equity attribute to the shareholders at RM2.30 per share?

I doubt so as the realizable values of its assets could be much lower. So this "equity" is a historical value, unlike bank assets which are marked to market.

Although i talked about ROE, ROIC a lot, often as a guide to investment, but we must understand their limitations.

FCF to me is more tangible. I don't care how much the asset is worth but if it produces a lot of free cash flow, I am very happy. FCF is hard cash to the company. Of course this FCF must be consistent, and not too lumpy.

The other thing is enterprise value. I often compare EV with Ebit to see if the price is right. But that is more of a short cut, lazy to compute ebitda. Mut as I emphasize cash flow more than earnings, so logically I will place more emphasis on Ebitda. Yes, Hevea has high depreciation. This is non cash. So its EV/Ebitda is more important to me. And the picture presented by ebitda for Hevea is much better. An average company selling at very cheap price may be worth investing.

Investors may like Hevea because it has not been paying any dividend for the last few years until last year. But you notice Hevea has quite high debts but this is decreasing for the last few years, very good. Doing this is better than paying dividend.

Also notice that the interest payment each year is high at close to 10m a year. But I don't see it as a big issue because there is good cash flows from its business.

Incidentally, I have some minor difference on some metrics on Hevea with you for 2012 results, not very critical.

EV/Ebit=8.3
ROIC=7.5%
FCF/revenue=12%

Posted by TeckChuan Lee > Jul 14, 2013 09:57 AM | Report Abuse

Of all the 1000 plus counters of KLSE, how do you know which of the counters fits all you requirements?

Where to begin with? is there a basic screening process that you do? such as low pe ratio or high eps?


I got a lot of ideas from forumers in i3. When they asked me or suggested some stocks, I try to look up their financials from Bursa website. Then it they are interesting, I go ahead with some analysis with my spreadsheets.

Somebody suggested the following website to screen, I think it was houseofordos, I personally haven't use it yet. Must try it out one day. You can check it out.

http://www.klsepsp.com/p/financial-checker.html

http://www.intellecpoint.com/

Posted by inwest88 > Jul 13, 2013 11:28 PM | Report Abuse
Mr kcchingnam whilst i agree with u that the share price of a company depend on its performance and financials, this is not the case here. It all depends on goreng and speculation !

Good good good. Next time you got news of who going to goreng which share, let me (kcchongnz, not kcchingnam) know so that I wallop it. But make sure you let me know much early, ok?

On the other hand, what I am talking about is the company business, not its share price. I never talk about share price, not unless I compare with the intrinsic value of its business. Business first, then may be share price. Of course call warrants is entirely a different ball game. Hope you separate the two different things.

Posted by moven00 > Jul 13, 2013 11:05 PM | Report Abuse
Bro kcchongnz,
my humble to ask you on ROE....
ROE formula is ROE = Net Income/ Shareholders Equity
My question here is Shareholders Equity izzit the total number of shares for the company? Pls correct me if I am wrong.
Thanks

The R is the net income attributed to the common shareholders (exclude any minority interest if any). So shareholders equity should be the total common equity under the "Equity" section of the balance sheet(not including minority interest), not the number of shares.

Posted by tonylim > Jul 14, 2013 12:54 AM | Report Abuse
Reduction in par value from 1.00 to 20 sen. Go figure out.

That is a share split of 5 shares from 1 share. What value has it created? EPS and NTA is shared by 5 shares instead of one share now. Absolutely nothing except pay some money to carry out the exercise, from shareholders' own pocket. A value destroyer.

So if I have RM4,000 and I want to invest in Apollo the company, instead of buying 1000 shares at 4.00, I buy 5000 shares at RM800 per share.

I am not disputing that the market will react positively and chase up the share price. That is a human bias, nothing in value creation of a company. But somehow the investor will realize it the share price will most likely revert back to the mean.

Prestar making good money, really?

Posted by inwest88 > Jul 12, 2013 05:22 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz, perhaps you may also wish to give your views on Prestar. making good money but price not moving !

This steel products company made 9.9 m net profit last year, or an EPS of 4.42 sen. At 42 sen now, the PE ratio is 10. Is it good for investor?

I use Cold Eye's 5 yardsticks (not chopsticks)to evaluate Prestar basing its financial statement in 2012 to see if this company is worth investing as shown below:

Prestar 0.420 13/07/2013
1 ROE 4.2% <12% Bad
Net profit 7685
Equity 181917
2 Cash flows
CFFO 1146 12% Bad
FCF -8179 Negative Bad
3 PE ratio 10.2 >8 Bad
Price 0.45
EPS 0.0442
4 Dividend yield
Dividend , sen 0.6
Dividend yield 1.3% <3% Bad
5 Price/NTA 0.42 <0.8 Good
NTA 1.06

As you can see, I have mostly "Bad" remarks. Its ROE is too low at 4.2%. Do you want to invest in a business with 4.2% return a year?

The quality of Prestar’s earnings is very poor. Cash flow from operation is only 12% of its earnings. Most of its earnings is tied up with increasing inventories (149m) and receivables (157m). It has negative free cash flow. So got to keep on borrowing from banks to fund its business.

With this type of performance, a PE ratio of 10 is considered high. Its price-to-NTA seems to be low at only 0.4. But that also depends on the quality of its assets which is far from good.

Its dividend of 0.6 sen last year, or a dividend yield of 1.3% is far from satisfactory. Anyway, Prestar actually can’t afford to pay any dividend at all because of its poor cash flow. It has to borrow to pay.

Its first quarter results may appear to be good with EPS of 1.8 sen. But huge amount of this “earnings” is tied up in its increasing inventories, now at 181m, and receivables, 163m. Its total debts is more than its total equity, not good.

For me, I will stay far away from Prestar.

Newbies hoping to make a kill in the stock market by listening to rumours and waiting for big boys to goreng up the share price (for Newbies benefits) should listen, listen and listen to Jyen and Michael Teo.

There were scores Of PWE in the second board in the mid 1990s. There are still heaps of them around now, though their share prices are not as high as that time of irrational exuberance.

What extra value does it have when a whole cake is cut into two halves, or four quarters?

Bonus issue capitalized the reserve or retained earnings. It increases the share capital but at the same time reduces the reserve or retained earnings, while equity remains exactly the same.

Increased liquidity? How? Say for example Apollo's business worth RM4.00 per share and it is trading at its intrinsic value. So it is better to give one for one bonus issues so that it is traded at RM2.00 and more people can buy 1000 shares for RM2,000? But initially why can't people buy 500 shares of Apollo at RM4.00, also with RM2000?

Can value be created out of nothing?

Yeah I know I know, investors would probably chase the price of the share up when bonus issues is declared. That is because they believe something can be created from nothing. Do you?

The danger for ordinary investor chasing this theme is before the bonus issue is announced, insiders would have long ago bought the share and it is probably the right time for them to take profit at the expense of somebody, you know who.

Just my thought.

Hup Seng looks good on its performance. Its ROIC is high as computed by you. A high ROIC company, good free cash flows, healthy balance sheet certainly will command higher market valuation. A PE of 15.9 is alright for me with this type of performance, though market enterprise value a little bit high.

Yeah, valuation wise all depends on its expected growth rate. Good for long term steady and stable return.

You sell biscuit, other people also sell biscuits. How come others do so well and you so bad? I am talking to management of London Biscuits.

The major difference is the people managing the business. Hup Seng management focus of doing their business well; whereas management of London Biscuits doing all kinds of dealing wheeling, buy this investment or plant, then sell off a year later at a loss, and repeating. No trust from me at all.

aisay no response one, no fun one.

Can I make use of this thread to guide those new to financial statement analysis and interpretations here. Free of charge. And prove that I don't bullshit one.

Anyone interested? Any question?

Posted by Steve Jub > Jul 12, 2013 05:11 PM | Report Abuse
thanks ooi..
kcchong, what is your formula on calculating fair value? is it very complicated one? last time, i read the book, looks pretty complicated to calculate those future fair value...wondering if there any simpler formula

Ooi TB has provided you with some simple methods of valuation. Try understand his methods. I especially like his method using ROE.

For more detail valuations, you may refer to the spreadsheet I sent out to some of you. but it may not be appropriate nor necessary for you.

Often some simple methods may be the better ones.

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 05:08 PM | Report Abuse
"otb = hng33 = kcchongnz = kcloh?" this sentence has nothing to do with "it takes a lot of time and effort to do research and post the information here". it is what it is, it's not so be it, what's the fuzz here? hahahaaa...
notice only the si-tipu-roti-canai who can't wait to explain herself above, as usual

First of all, it really shows your analytical skill (or totally lack of it) to come out with that conclusion.

What fuzz? No fuzz! I am so honoured to be implied that I have the skill and knowledge of hng33, OTB and KCLoh. Like what gordan85 said I am a superman man!

Again anybody else consider me as si-tipu-roti-canai? And also I told you again and again, I got kukuchiu one, I am not a "her", ok? Not everybody is like you!

hng33, I could understand your statements very well. but the other fellow's statement, eh, make me one head full of dew water.

Can elaborate ah?

gordan85, luckily I have readers like you. All of my readers are like you, except one, who is not actually a reader, but read my comments secretly and see if there is anything to attack or not.

I believe I got a lot of mistakes here and there. After all I am only human. But you know what, even there are mistakes, he can't spot any because he knows nothing about finance and investment. It is ok not to know because we all have different background. But attacking others with degrading terms but own-self knows nuts? May tahan.

Posted by gordan85 > Jul 12, 2013 03:57 PM | Report Abuse
so great if they are same person, in this forum i only learn from ooi, kcchongnz, kcloh and sephiroth, lol. if u guys are same person, pls use 1 id, ezier for me to read

So gordan85 you have really learned from me (not us) ah? You saw me (not us)disappear anywhere or not when kps is down? People call me (not us) taufu, si-roti canai, bogus and shameless postings woh. Still want to read my (not ours) postings ah?

You know ah when you do an assignment for some study, you may refer to some website. But you cannot put the link there and tell your lecturer that is the way to calculate gearing or what. You must also not just copy the formula. You must put everything in your own words, meaning paraphrase it, and give examples with some figures. If not you don't get any mark one you know. Never go to college before ah?

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 03:32 PM | Report Abuse
whenever si-tipu-roti-canai start to "punt" a counter with wonderful cerita, making formula here and there, that counter is sure to drop. now kps $1.66... tks to this taufu-fa again
don't believe? juz briefly follow his bogus posting and c for yourself. hahahaaa... can't even get the roe def correct, yet so shameless
time will tell, when market goes down all these taufu will disappear :D

Ooooi hng33, where are you (not me)? KPS down you (not me) disappear ah (oop, i am here)?

You (not me)made that ifax fellow lose money oh and he got angry fight already. But I (I mean kcchong, not hng here) made lah. When I (not hng33)read your (not mine) initial recommendation, kps was less than 1.55. So if I (not hng33) sell now at 1.66, i (not hng33) still make a lot oh. Thank you (not me) thank you (not me).

So what is ROE? Let's start with the very basic of investment, ok?

Wait before that what is the E in ROE?

How is the E obtained? Just tell you that it is obtained from the balance sheet, ok. But how is the E obtained from balance sheet?

Then what is the R in ROE? But the way do you know what O stands for?

Don't copy and paste link and expect people to guess, ok?

You must put it in your own words. If not no marks is awarded, ok?

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 03:32 PM | Report Abuse

whenever si-tipu-roti-canai start to "punt" a counter with wonderful cerita, making formula here and there, that counter is sure to drop. now kps $1.66... tks to this taufu-fa again

don't believe? juz briefly follow his bogus posting and c for yourself. hahahaaa... can't even get the roe def correct, yet so shameless

time will tell, when market goes down all these taufu will disappear :D

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 11:12 AM | Report Abuse
otb = hng33 = kcchongnz = kcloh? hahahaa...

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 02:22 PM | Report Abuse
wow... family gathering, hahahaa...

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 03:10 PM | Report Abuse
don't touch puncak, kps, jaks, yli, engtex, especially derived WA, until new development arise


With this kind of analytical skill, I don't think it is advisable to follow this guy's advice.

Btw, what the hell is "derived WA"?

house, I have read your posting of Hapseng call warrants before. You know exactly what to do. Use your spreadsheet and try too evaluate.

I promise to add on to what you will post. We have to do this together already.

That shows his analytical skill

Posted by iafx > Jul 12, 2013 11:12 AM | Report Abuse
otb = hng33 = kcchongnz = kcloh? hahahaa...

otb is an expert chartist. Nowadays he has written some valuation posts. hng33 has specialist knowledge in companies with potential corporate moves and high dividend companies. KCLoh is an experienced and knowledgeable trader and investor, also with a lot of feel of the market, like the others. They are all good in their fields. That is what I have gathered through i3.

Me, I am a fundamental retail investor, besides a call warrant punter, if you base on what i have been writing about so far. I know nothing of technical analysis (maybe a little lah). Neither I have any market information like hng33 and KC Loh have.

If all of them are of the same person, that would be a good combination.

What about you? What kind of investor are you? Since you have been very critical of at least two of the above.

Oh yeah, btw, have you collected evidence of me copy and paste, bullshitting, pusing etc so far? I am sure you can find some, can't you since I have posted scores of postings?

I am still waiting!

ok ok ok

I also like goreng, but it must be nasi, pisang, mee etc, not goreng bursa

The problem with EAH is its cash flows, very poor cash flow.

Cenbond steve?

Posted by kcchongnz > Jun 3, 2013 10:26 AM | Report Abuse X

Cenbond, is it a good company? Is it a good investment?

By looking at how its share price jumped from 90 sen to RM1.61 at the close of the market on 31/5/2013, there must be something about this company, isn’t it?

Cenbond business includes paper packaging, plastic packaging, contract manufacturing and packing sale of household care products and adhesive products, and investment and property holding.

Revenue for fy ending March 31 2013 shows an improvement of just 3% from 182m to 187m. However its net profit jumped by 32% to 20.6m. Margin improved by 2.6% which is substantial for this type of industry which could positively affect its bottom line. This helps in its return of total capital which improved from 15% to 17%, way above its cost of capital.

Is Cenbond reasonably priced after the jump in its share price recently. Yeah of course. Below is my assessment whether Cenbond is a good company and a good investment.

Cenbond a Good company? 1.610
Good governance ?
Durable business Yes
Growth Yes
ROE Yes 13% >12%
ROTC Yes 17% >WACC
Balance sheet Yes D/E 0.03
Cash flow Yes

Screens for investing
ROTC Yes 17% >WACC
P/B Yes 1.3 <2.0
PE ratio Yes 10.1 <20