yfchong, no don't read portfolio analysis. That is for fund manager. More academic than practical. No use.

Just found one new book, Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman. Try that.

BBB79, i do agree with your previous post below:

Posted by BBB79 > Jul 25, 2013 01:16 PM | Report Abuse
call warrant really suck...keep away from it..

Buying call warrant is really gambling, full stop. When you gamble, you must know the game very well. Even knowing the game well may not be good enough to make money because the playing field is uneven. You must know who your opponents are.

Having said that punting call warrants offer good reward, if you know you are at an advantage when the market offers you. You go for it.

For example playing black jack and you first get 2 Aces, you would want to split them and call for a card each. Your chance of getting black jack is high as there are many pictures in a deck.

But when you don't know about the game, follow your instinct, avoid it.

My postings on call warrants are never for enticing anyone to buy call warrant. but more for fun.

Hey MG9231, my partner in Pintaras Jaya. Where have you been? Good to hear from you again.

You know ah recently a couple of forumers none stop criticizing about my FA no use lah, make people lose money lah, tipu pusing lah, bullshit lah, copy and paste lah, apa apa macham. Actually you notice I seldom talk about share price or how much I make one. So I got angry fight and I went to check the return of my portfolio put up by Tan KW 6 months ago. To my horror, my portfolio returns 38% in 6 months, or an annualized return of 72% a year, compared to the 10% of KLSE. Not bad isn't it?

Especially this stock Pintaras Jaya which we are partners in the company. This one you should know very well. You know this fellow has been hantaming me for so long, no liquidity lah, no analysts follow lah, so much of cash it hold no use lah, dividend no good lahetc. Macham macham. So I go check its long and short-term return. At 4.90+, its returns are as follows:

Period 1 year 2-year 3 year 4 year 5 year
Dividend, sen 19 15 10 12 10
Adj. Price 2.80 2.35 1.60 1.20 1.40
Total return 78.9% 113.2% 213.1% 317.5% 257.9%
CAR 78.9% 46.0% 46.3% 42.9% 29.0%
Dividend yield 6.8% 6.4% 6.3% 10.0% 7.1%
Capital gain 72.1% 39.6% 40.0% 32.9% 21.9%

You see the table. Not only the dividend yield is fantastic, all more than 6.3%, its compounded annual return also are so good that I couldn't believe it myself. If one holds it 5 years ago, the CAR is 29%. If one year ago, 79%. My goodness, KLSE only return a CAR of about 10% only.

Note the table was prepared about one and a half month ago, but as today's price, there is not much change of those figures.

Sorry ah for repeating this thingy, I think I shouldn't always be at the receiving end, should I?

chongkonghui, I used 27% (26.6% to be exact) is last year Kfima's tax rate. If I use 25%, the intrinsic value of Kfima is RM4.05 using the same analysis, no significant difference.

Ooi,

Ok,ok at least you have clarified that you are actually using technical analysis.

And at least I have clarified the limitations to use the Graham growth model and the ROE method of finding intrinsic value of a stock. Because you did say you learn them from me.

And also others should be thankful to Ooi for sharing his tips.

Cheers

Wow, punting TM CT is really exciting. with an effective leverage of 45 times, 4 more days to expiry, each sen of movement of TM share results in a difference in 10% difference in payoff for CT.

Aiseh, no call warrant kakis here to shout "picture", "picture", "picture" together.

It is very important to understand the inputs into a formula to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock. Take for example, the Graham growth model which he used in 1974, some 40 years ago.

IV=(EPS*(8.5+2g)*4.4)/Y is the Graham growth model to estimate the intrinsic value of a stock.

IV is the intrinsic value of a stock
EPS is earnings per share. Use normalized EPS as much as possible.
8.5 is the PE ratio Graham willing to pay for a stock without growth.
2g is the weight given to a growth company, g is the growth rate.
Y is the present long-term bond rate

The input of EPS and g is very important for this formula. Graham mentioned that the EPS has to be normalized. One just can’t input last year’s EPS for accompany with volatile earnings. This is especially true for industry like construction (that includes steel ), commodities, etc. Hence an average margin, or earnings for 5-7 years should be prudently applied. Furthermore, with so much financial shenanigans, one has to really understand what ‘earnings” is used as it frequently include one-off items etc.

This formula also put too much weigh on growth rate to get the intrinsic value of a stock. Imagine a company earns 10 sen per share but with an expected growth rate of 15%, and using Y as 5% would have an IV of 3.40 compared to just 1.63 if the growth rate is 5%. It is more than double for a growth of 15% than 5%! Graham, at his time very rarely have such growth rate for companies and hence he did not foresee this problem in his formula.

So I tend to think the formula would be more useful to check whether the share price is too high, or too much expectation is built on the company, rather than using it blindly to find the intrinsic value of a stock.

Now let’s come back to Ooi’s calculation of the intrinsic value of Masteel. I append herewith its five years financial performance as extracted from its 2012 annual report.

Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average CAGR
Revenue, 000 881224 687263 1004786 1253365 1312189 1027765 10.5%
Net profit 85730 -8542 29997 248998 24902 76217 -26.6%
EPS, sen 40.74 -4.16 13.58 11.56 11.51 14.65 -27.1%

My question is does it appear that Masteel’s earnings is likely to grow at 10% for the next 5 years?

Now in your method 3 using ROE, i.e. IV=ROE/Rr*NTA

This method is best suited for companies with their assets and liabilities marked to market, such as banks, insurance companies, closed-end funds, investment companies etc because the NTA is very closed to the realizable values. For others like steel companies, a lot of their assets are tied up in PPE, inventories which are unlikely to be closed to the realizable value, or market value.

My questions are:
1) I got a ROE of only 4.5% compared to your 6.1%, a huge difference in intrinsic value calculation if you look at the formula. I don’t know how did you obtain yours.
2) Masteel is highly geared with total debts more than half of its equity. It’s operating efficiencies are poor as evidenced from its poor ROE (4.5%) and ROIC (2.7%), way below its costs of capitals. It seldom has free cash flow. So for me I would require a minimum return of 15% investing in such a high risk company. Your 8% required return used in your formula may be a bit too liberal. Do you agree?

This post is done not with the intention of criticising your methodologies. Neither do I want to argue with you. I don’t need another enemy in i3, do I?. It is for sharing and discussion, and learning maybe. It is just to tell some others that there are limitations of using these valuation methods, many limitations indeed. In fact all valuation methods have limitations. It may also protect you from some people using the methods and lose money. Some nuts may accuse you why Maseetl still stays at 1.14 while you said it is worth 2.20? It has happen many times before, haven’t it?

How does a loan stock like Pantech LA work?

Posted by wm83 > Jul 24, 2013 11:24 AM | Report Abuse
wanna ask a newbie question, i bought pantech-LA, does it work like warrant? mother share increase, would LA increase? what's the difference?

Pantech LA is a hybrid investment instruments. It is also known as ICUL, irredeemable convertible unsecured loan stock. Holders of Pantech LA (Face value 10 sen) is paid 7% coupon rate (3.5% every 6 months), or interest of 0.7 sen a share a year. Similar to warrant, you can also convert your LA share to Pantech share with a conversion rate of 6 LA to one before the expiry date end of 2017. In essence, LA provides the benefits of a bond and a warrant until it is converted to an equity. Hence LA will increase in price as Pantech does which is evidenced in its movement with the underlying share.

So with Pantech price at 1.08 and LA at 18 sen, which is a better investment?

A analysis of the investment value of LA basing on its cash flows from the coupons is 11.0 sen. The assumption of risk premium is 1.5% over the risk free rate of 3.5%, and hence a required return of 5.0%.

Using a historical volatility of 35% for Pantech, the option value of the warrant portion of LA is 41.9 sen, or 7.0 sen per LA. Hence the total value of LA is 11+7.0=18.0 sen.

Hence there appears to be no difference in whether one invests in Pantech or LA.

Posted by Harvard57 > Jul 25, 2013 07:38 PM | Report Abuse
i also sense something fishy why no news on institution portion ??
may be under subscribed now quietly talking to bank to pledge in these shares!!!

Institutional money is smart money. I can't imagine institutions will buy SPAC as investment, unless they can get it dirt cheap compared with the public, and can dump them immediately to make a kill when listed. And who will be "killed"? No prize for the correct answer.

If one knows about what is APAC, how it works, what it does, what is the costs involved, who is the ultimate beneficiary, the experience in the US and other more developed countries and ultimately the efficient market hypothesis, you will never even look at it.

By the way, can any honest and knowledgeable investment banker come out here and say something good about investing in SPAC without blinking his eyes?

Posted by loryau86 > Jul 24, 2013 12:57 AM | Report Abuse
Investment Idea updated!
The red hot SPAC

Talk about investment, if anybody tells you this investment is "red hot", you better run for your life!

yungshen ah, if you are serious, I really respect you. Despite of what I said about KNM, your favorite stock, you are still not angry with me. You know there are two peole here, despite I never say anything bad about them (at least initially), they don't stop saying bad things about me.

How nice ah if we have more people like you.

fei mau 不准笑

yungshen ah, you joking or criticizing me?

Posted by David Ng > Jul 25, 2013 05:49 PM | Report Abuse
hi kcchongnz, please help to share the fair value for kfima based on the numbers that you have (and it's assumptions of course). thank you.

Hey, David you want me to get hantam ah? Don't you notice that there are two characters have been harping on my FA, in particular Kfima; saying I tipu pusing, bullshit, copy and paste, etc; that all my shares lose money one, especially Kfima. So I angry fight and went to check the performance of my shares. Hoh, you know what? For the last 6 months my portfolio went up by an average of 38%!, or annualized 72%, as compared to 10% of KLSE. Kfima also performed better than KLSE what. But why they hantam me when the evidence shows that my shares ok what? I never talk about them only.

Now lets get back to 做功课 lei. Below is my data and assumptions for Kfima.

Inputs
Earnings before interest and taxes = 126.76
Expected growth for next 5 years = 5.0%
Expected growth after year 5 = 3%
Tax rate = 27%
Debt ratio for the firm = 2%
Cost of equity = 10.0%
Pre-tax cost of debt = 6%
Return on capital in high growth= 20%
Return on capital in stable growth = 12%

And here is the results:

Value of firm, m $ 1,134.78
Value of debt, m $ 21.60
Value of Equity = $ 1,113.18
non-operating cash $ 272.24
Investment properties $ 73.31
Mngt option $ (18.94)
Total value of equity $ 1,439.79
Less minority interest $ (372.05)
Value for equity holders $ 1,067.73
Number of shares $ 267.97
Value per share 3.98

Kfima closed at 2.09 today. So what is the margin of safety investing in Kfima now? Huge isn't it?

Now I guarantee there will fierce attack on me soon. So please prepare to defend me ah?

No just kidding. I actually very much welcome constructive criticisms. This post is for sharing and learning, not a post to entice you to buy anything.

fatinvest, why you so good in Chinese?

How to type in Chinese ah?

Masteel anyone? Not me.

Posted by winman 1 > Jul 24, 2013 09:17 PM | Report Abuse
dear kcchongnz, i am winman 1 and those day without 1, now only with 1 hope change of luck happen soon with the 1, soon i think winman 1 no more appropriate simple no win lol. please advise its masteel worth holding for long term

winman 1, no sure what you talk. But here is my answer to your question.

I have phobia investing in steel company. It is highly subjected to economic and construction cycle. It requires hell lot of capital outlay. Not my cup of tea. That is what I always think about steel company.

Looking at Masteel, I can't find any difference. Its net margin is very thin at 1.8% for the last two years. So even with huge leverage, having a total debt of half of its equity, it still can't show a decent return of equity. ROE is bad at only 4.5%. Do you ant to put up a capital to do a business and at the end of the year gives you 4.5%, with so much headache and risk?

Worst, though you make some profit, there is no money to withdraw from your business, because most if not all the earnings have to be dumped back to the business to upgrade plant and machinery, buy new ones etc.

So Masteel is not a good company to invest in for long term. But for trading, especially now I used to hear steel industry is on the road to recovery, I am not sure about that.

Even its price now at 1.14 is not considered as cheap for me as for a company like this, PE of 12 is too high. Price-to-book value ok lah at 0.5. But the quality of the assets mostly in PPE, inventories and receivables are not good quality stuff.

If you think of dividend, hack no. Masteel has no capacity to give good dividend as it has no free cash flow. Just give you one sen for the sake of maintaining a dividend giving record.

house,
put warrants is also issued by ib and it is european style cash settlement. Just that the bet is the other way, betting the underlying share price to go down, not up. put warrants not common and not popular in Bursa.

Those company warrants like Wa, Wb, Wc etc are issued by companies. they have longer expiry date. They are American style options, that you can convert to the underlying share any time before expiry. If you hold until maturity, you must have a lot of cash to convert to the underlying shares.

Posted by BBB79 > Jul 25, 2013 01:16 PM | Report Abuse
call warrant really suck...keep away from it..

BBB79, you are absolutely right again. Notice that I just posted the link below to warn people punting call warrants?

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/33653.jsp

But actually trading and punting call warrant is not much different, both also chasing the share price, and not the value of a company like investing.

But sometimes when trying to make money, what is comfortable is rarely profitable. Take for example the Maybank call warrant CW mentioned by our friend house above. I first talked about it here in April 25, see post below. It was just trading at 11 sen only then. Look what is its price now just after exactly 4 months. You can sell at 30 sen now.


Posted by kcchongnz > Apr 25, 2013 05:06 PM | Report Abuse X

At today's closing of Maybank at 9.55 and CW at 11 sen, there is no premium to buy CW, and Maybank has just ex its dividend. This means that if you were to settle the call warrant now, you don't lose anything if you have bought CW at 11 sen today. But there is still 5 more months before CW expires. Lets for the time being ignore the advantage you can buy and sell CW before it expires. What do you think will be the price of Maybank in 5 months time when you settle CW?
Below is your gain/loss at various prices of Maybank at expiry of CW.

Maybank Price 9.000 9.400 9.550 9.600 9.800 10.000 10.500 11.000 11.500
Gain in Maybank -5.8% -1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 2.6% 4.7% 9.9% 15.2% 20.4%
Gain in CW -100.0% -27.3% 0.0% 9.1% 45.5% 81.8% 172.7% 263.6% 354.5%

So what do you think is the probability of making money on CW at 11 sen now?

house, you better stay away from call warrants. You still have a lot to learn about them.

Sorry, just kidding, I know you will learn fast if you want. But seriously you have a lot more to know before you punt, yes gamble, with call warrants.

Yes, I held call warrants to maturity quite often. Those were because they have value when they are very closed to maturity, like CT now. Note that you can't do anything the last three days before maturity, no trading. You are at the mercy of the share price of the underlying share for the last 5 days.

Call warrants are cash settled at maturity with the investment banks if you opt to hold them until maturity, no conversion, nothing to do with the company.

A call warrant is in-the-money if the underlying share price is above the exercise price of the call warrant. It doesn't mean you are at a gain because you have a cost or premium over holding it.

It is best to sell the call warrant before settlement date, whether to realize your gain or losses because you have no control in the last three days before expiry. Those times I hold them because I couldn't get the price I wanted.

BBB79, I know nuts about trading.

Posted by BBB79 > Jul 25, 2013 12:31 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz , people willing to buy and willing to sale, then the transaction is done, who will think of value or not...

BBB79, you are absolutely right. Trading is different from investing. Trading involves actions of traders who determine the short-term share prices, and not the intrinsic value of a company. the value of a company is determined by its business.

Yes, traders can make a lot of money if you are good, and more important, if you are lucky. No argument about it.

Posted by Steve Jub > Jul 25, 2013 12:27 PM | Report Abuse
kcchong, don't the intrinsic value keep 'upgrading' if growth is still there?

When you estimate the intrinsic value, you have already incorporate an assumption of growth rate in it. Unless the company's growth rate increases higher than the assumption, intrinsic value won't be higher.

The growth rate assumption I used for Pantech is already high at 15% for the next 5 years.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, it is better to refer to what the magazines and what the analyst says. But let see what the analyst says about say MK Land, what is the target price by Public Bank 6 months ago? 80 sen. so when is MK land reaching 80 sen? Half a year gone already.

Now The edge report. Plenty of them of various target prices, show me how many achieve the target prices, how many didn't. What is the percentage of target prices achieved?

No, no, no, I am not saying I am right. I cannot be more right than analysts, no way. I am just offering a different opinion, basing on some analysis, not simple say anything. Isn't that good to have a different opinion before putting in your hard earned money?

For the one who always simply append the link without saying a word, this time is the Edge magazine, I am always ready for you in the following thread to discuss anything about finance and investment:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900218979.jsp

Nobody seems to agree with me that Pantech is already fully valued.

[Posted by kcchongnz > May 13, 2013 01:26 PM | Report Abuse X
Pantech share price has an excellent run. It ran up from about 70 sen at the beginning of the year to about RM1 now, for a gain of more than 40%, in just 4 months. I hold Pantech for a long time already and happy with the return from it. I am still holding some. But is Pantech fully valued now?
I opine so. Even if I take an assumption that it will grow at 15% for the next 5 years and 3% subsequently, which in my opinion is a fantastic feat, and a required return of 12%, Pantech at 1.00 is almost fully valued already.]

In discount cash flow analysis to find the intrinsic value of a company is very subjective, in particular, one has to input a growth assumption. A slight difference in this assumption yields a very different intrinsic value. But if you use the DCFA in a reverse way, ie, try various growth rate assumption as input and see what assumption yields an intrinsic value exactly equal to the market value, then you can see what the market is expecting its growth rate. Then you can gauge whether this expectation is realistic or not.

Yes, you can buy TM CY at 10 sen now. With the underlying share at 5.28, the premium is just 5.1%. It still has a long life until end of February next year. Further more the gearing is good at 18 times. Good punt.

Price Ex-Price Ex-Ratio Expiry date Premium Gearing
CY 0.100 5.25 3.00 28/02/2014 5.1% 18
CT 0.020 5.179 4.751 31/07/2013 -0.11% 56

Actually if you are a risk taker, CT offers more excitement. It is expiring end of this month, 5 more days to count. Meaning the price of TM share is taken into settlement calculation right now. You can buy CT at a discount at 0.11% at 2 sen.

Don't think a discount of a fraction of a sen is nothing. In this case, it matters a lot because the gearing is 56 times. Below is the gain and loss buying CT at 2 sen now for various 5-day average volume weighted prices of TM at settlement.

Uly Price 5.24 5.26 5.28 5.30 5.32 5.34 5.36
TM -0.8% -0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5%
CT -35.9% -14.9% 6.2% 27.2% 48.3% 69.3% 90.4%

Before you punt, please read the following article first.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/33653.jsp

Posted by yfchong > Jul 25, 2013 10:26 AM | Report Abuse
Bro KC, refering to your comment what are the items to be classified as good quality assets. Thks

Money, money money. Yes cash and cash equivalent is the best quality asset. don't you agree?

Other good quality assets like investment in a good profit generating subsidiary and associates, high rental yield investment in properties, etc.

mlg123,
I am an individual retail investor living far away from home right now. Nobody to talk to about investing in Bursa. Luckily there is this internet thingy. But still my information is limited. My capability is also limited as I am just a retail investor, with no working experience and no friends knowledgeable in the investing industry to consult with. So I have to rely on whatever information available in the net, compile them, interpret and analyze with my limited capability. I can't spend my time researching, go to talk to management and other stakeholders of the companies I am interested in. So really I may not be the one you should be looking at. There are heaps of stock research and analysis in the market. All broker firms are bombarding investors with research and reports.

However, there are some people seeking my opinion in i3 which I try to do my best to provide them with my opinions, sincere opinions as you notice. This does take up quite a lot of time, but I am not complaining, especially i find that all of them show gratitude in some form or other. So you can see many of my opinions in i3, that is where I have posted whatever though I have on Bursa stocks. Try to read and understand, and hopefully if will find some good companies to invest in. Note the "invest" I am talking about.

yes yes yes, i have made a blunder myself. sori sori.

yes yes yes, KNM will sure fly fly fly soon, up up in the sky.

Hey Tan KW, where have you been? By the way, thank you many much for putting up my portfolio on 21/1/2013 in i3. At least now I have proof that investing basing on fundamentals is not bad after all as claimed by two fellows today. You know ah they have been harping and harping the whole day today.

38% total return in 6 months compared of about 10% of the broad market really not bad eh? Please don't blame me for lohso or chieng-he. You know I got to reconfirm with you here again as I was ridiculed so much about fundamental analysis that I am like lost confidence in myself already oh.

Hey Tan KW, you have a portfolio of this guy iafx or not? Just curious and I really want to compare with his lei to see if his strategy of "following the ghost" is a better strategy or not.

mlg123, CSC Steel's operating efficiencies are very poor and it is not cheap at this price basing on its 2012 results. I did say that the first quarter 2013 appears to be very good. but I said it is still too early to say.

For me I won't invest in it. This is purely fundamental approach and I have no idea if the coming year result will improve. It must improve vastly for me to be interested.

But for its near term share price performance, I really don't know. I have much better companies to invest in.

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 24, 2013 04:10 PM | Report Abuse X

Some more curi curi improving your lie. And have balls drop from your leaky pocket when couldn't find your golf ball.

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 24, 2013 04:07 PM | Report Abuse X

Hohoho, I have already listed down all the available strategies for you, and offered to help you. But you still want to ask from the ghost (oop, why I talked about the same person here?).

You are like in a golf competition with me. Every time I hit the par 4 green in two, par 5 green in 3, and you struggling from hazard to hazard, then bunker to bunker. 10 strokes also could reach the green. Still say you beat me. sigh, what to say?

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 24, 2013 03:53 PM | Report Abuse X

Hey, how must return did you get ah using your ghostly strategy?

Maybe I suggest you use some other better ones lah. You got any idea what kind of investing strategy is available or not? No? let me suggest to you.

High dividend yield
Value investing, low PE ratio, low P/B,
Stable earnings strategy
Invest in excellent companies
Growth investing
Contrarian strategy
Momentum strategy
Follow the experts strategy (not iafx lah of course)
Investing for long term, buy and hold
Etc

You know any of these strategies or not?
If not want to learn of not?
don't just always based on rumour mongering lah.

Posted by iafx > Jul 24, 2013 03:31 PM | Report Abuse

go and ask ghost to help u lor

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 24, 2013 03:36 PM | Report Abuse X

Oh, that is your strategy. I got it, got it. Eureka!!!!

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 24, 2013 03:20 PM | Report Abuse X

ok lah, let's talk about investing lah, iafx? Now as you can see, my portfolio is posted by Tan KW six months ago up here. They are all based on my different investing strategies, value investing, growth investing, investing in good companies. You know lah (not vsure whether you know, most likely not) those 5 yardsticks of Cold Eye, In search of excellent companies, growth investing etc. All were analyzed and written and posted in i3 for all to see. No cheating, pusing, copy and paste, bullshit or whatever. The total return of my portfolio now is 38% as computed, no bullshit one. Not sure you can comprehend my tabulation or not, again most probably not. So I won't even think of whether you can actually know how to check or not.

Not bad isn't it? 38% in six months, or annualized return of 76%, compared to about 10% of the market. So what you think? My analysis so bad meh?

So what about yours? What is your strategy in Bursa? You know what strategy I am talking about or not? Strategy of investing, or trading. Can share with us ah? Surely you have, haven't you? Or just the strategy of rumour mongering? What is your return? Nay prove like what I have?

I am sure all forumers here are eager to tap your expertise.

And when confronted, "I didn't i didn't. You did, you did"

Some more curi curi improving your line. And have balls drop from your leaky pocket when couldn't find your golf ball.

Hohoho, I have already listed down all the available strategies for you, and offered to help you. But you still want to ask from the ghost (oop, why I talked about the same person here?).

You are like in a golf competition with me. Every time I hit the par 4 green in two, par 5 green in 3, and you struggling from hazard to hazard, then bunker to bunker. 10 strokes also could reach the green. Still say you beat me. sigh, what to say?

Hey, how must return did you get ah using your ghostly strategy?

Maybe I suggest you use some other better ones lah. You got any idea what kind of investing strategy is available or not? No? let me suggest to you.

High dividend yield
Value investing, low PE ratio, low P/B,
Stable earnings strategy
Invest in excellent companies
Growth investing
Contrarian strategy
Momentum strategy
Follow the experts strategy (not iafx lah of course)
Investing for long term, buy and hold
Etc

You know any of these strategies or not?
If not want to learn of not?
don't just always based on rumour mongering lah.

But think of it. Your strategy very eeri fight lah. Which graveyard do you normally go?

I think not for me lah. I rather follow my students way of investing now. You know I have a few in i3, they are better than me now. Don't believe, go and watch those threads where they have done some excellent analysis.

Oh, that is your strategy. I got it, got it. Eureka!!!!

ok lah, let's talk about investing lah, iafx? Now as you can see, my portfolio is posted by Tan KW six months ago up here. They are all based on my different investing strategies, value investing, growth investing, investing in good companies. You know lah (not vsure whether you know, most likely not) those 5 yardsticks of Cold Eye, In search of excellent companies, growth investing etc. All were analyzed and written and posted in i3 for all to see. No cheating, pusing, copy and paste, bullshit or whatever. The total return of my portfolio now is 38% as computed, no bullshit one. Not sure you can comprehend my tabulation or not, again most probably not. So I won't even think of whether you can actually know how to check or not.

Not bad isn't it? 38% in six months, or annualized return of 76%, compared to about 10% of the market. So what you think? My analysis so bad meh?

So what about yours? What is your strategy in Bursa? You know what strategy I am talking about or not? Strategy of investing, or trading. Can share with us ah? Surely you have, haven't you? Or just the strategy of rumour mongering? What is your return? Nay prove like what I have?

I am sure all forumers here are eager to tap your expertise.

When we doing stock selection, we follow a basis; whether it is fundamentals, ie value investing, growth investing, invest in good companies etc; or technical or whatever. Those fellows who are criticizing, badmouthing etc, I don't know how they invest and what basis they are ridiculing us.

Can't understand at all.

This post is not to brag about how much my stocks have increased for the past 6 months; and is also not a show of how good in picking stocks. It is a response to some people who have been writing about how bad is the fundamental approach is in investing. Today, a couple of them even accused me of misleading others in my analysis and postings. Heck, most of the time I response to others questions through hard work, compiling the financial statements, analyze them, and wrote comments and posted in i3. So now I want to show them fundamental approach in investing is not that bad after all.

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 24, 2013 11:33 AM | Report Abuse X

Tan KW put up my portfolio in i3investor on 21/1/2013. Check this out.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/13147.jsp

At the close of yesterday, the various prices of my stocks in the portfolio and their returns are shown below:

Reference date 21/01/2013
Stock Name Ref Price Price now Div rec Change %change
Kfima 2.02 2.11 0.080 0.170 8.4%
Pintaras 3.12 4.9 0.100 1.880 60.3%
ECS 1.06 1.22 0.025 0.185 17.5%
Plenitude 1.85 2.31 0.050 0.510 27.6%
Jobstreest 2.4 4.1 0.080 1.780 74.2%
Pantech 0.78 1.09 0.012 0.322 41.3%
SKPRes 0.34 0.32 0.000 -0.020 -5.9%
NTPM 0.47 0.565 0.015 0.110 23.3%
Kimlun 1.5 2.23 0.048 0.778 51.9%
Prestariang 1.21 2.14 0.055 0.985 81.4%

Average return 38.0%

KLCI 1636 1808 172.0 10.5%

Exactly 6 months has passed. What is the return of this portfolio? It is 38%, or annualized 76%. 76% in a year, my god!!!! How did you do that! This compares with only 10.5% of the broad market, more than 3 times above the market return, my god!

So does my FA works ,folks? Did Kumpulan Fima share price plunged?

I seldom talk about share price, and especially how much I made etc. But I think it is time to put up the performance of my portfolio liow.

So folks, please commend on return of the stocks I have selected with FA!

做功课 loh! Is White Horse a hidden gem?

Posted by Chang Chiang > Jul 24, 2013 11:16 AM | Report Abuse
Dear Kc, what is ur view on Whitehorse ( code 5009 ). Is it a hidden gem worth investing? I apologise to bringing this up again, but i really would like to know ur view on it before i make any long term investment no it. It is in the tiles business that i consider not that competative in Malaysia. And the current price at 1.69 is much lower then it NAV of 2.94 . Dividend is almost 6% . My main concern is there seems to be not much interest in it and the price seems to be stucked. Pls guide me.

White Horse Berhad is engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of ceramic and homogeneous tiles. The Company's products include ceramic wall tiles, ceramic floor tiles, porcelain granite tiles, porcelain stones tiles, Porcelain tiles and multi-effect granite tiles.

My opinion is White Horse is in a very competitive industry. Net profit margin is thin at only 7.1% last year. This pulled down its ROE and ROIC to only 6.2% and 5.2% respectively last year, way below the costs of capital. The quality of its earnings is poor, with CFFO way below its earnings. In both years, after spending on capital expenses, there is on average, a negative cash flow of 14.4m the last two years. So it is not surprised that its net borrowings has increased by 34m last year. So there is no way White Horse can be classified as a good company according to my metrics. We can only see if it is a value buy using the 5 yardsticks of ColdEye.

1 ROE 6.2% No
Net profit 41879
Equity 675706
2 Cash flows, average
CFFO 38990 <51241 No
FCF -14373 Negative No
3 PE ratio 9.3 <10 OK
Price 1.690
EPS 0.1825
4 Dividend yield
Dividend , sen 0.10
Dividend yield 5.9% >3.5% Yes
5 Price/NTA 0.57 <0.8 Yes
NTA 2.940

As you can see from the above table, there are more “no” than “yes” according to ColdEye’s yardsticks. The only yes are its dividend yield of 5.9% and Price-to-book of 0.6. But bear in mind that the dividend of 10 sen per share was paid with additional borrowed money, not from CFFO.

As for its high NTA, also be reminded that a lot of the assets are in property, plant, and equipment , receivables and inventories. These stuff are poor quality assets and are unlikely to fetch close to its book value when in liquidation.

So fundamentally, I would avoid this company. But as its share price movement? I really don’t know.

And also the season of ghost busting

KC Loh, I didn't know tapir bashing and ghost busting is such fun. More fun than ROE, ROIC, EV, ebit etcv.

Posted by iafx > Jul 24, 2013 12:17 PM | Report Abuse
wow... a "ghost" appeared... what else can be said?

finally admitted of the ghost thingy. and also "bolt away just as fast with their kontot tail between their legs"!

How can I read his post, get some data, wrote a long response to his 12.48pm post, post it, all within one minute? Siow meh?

And the last one. What is the Chinese saying, something like very embarrassed when people exposed his tail and got very angry.

Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 08:12 PM | Report Abuse
my original comment is CLEARLY stated ABOVE all comments!! how to delete and still above kcchongnz's cmment?? kcchongnz is clearly once again pusing his cerita, anyone still wanna take her word seriously so be it

so call live in NZ? pui pui pui! one hell of sickening liar!

So? see how you have exposed your tail? Nothing else to say?

hey, wtf, I posted the post above to show you you have posted one at 12.42pm, and later you deleted it and replaced with another one, and then spin. Wtf you append those two links for? You understand what is in there or not. don't copy and paste lah.