If someone just purely look on share price. Your judgement will get wrong, fear and loss of direction. We need to find out what potential can make it drop. I don't believe within 1 day, it can make the company in bad shape, seeing the macro economics is positive to petrochemical. We just need to find out more info of it.

Sometime share price manipulated by certain parties for its own agenda and benefits. Look on business and economics, not on share price

Overall petrochemical sector still intact, tighten supply and demand on track. However, lctitan mgmt efficiency and trustworthy is questionable for this period of time. Expected is utilization can achieve within 80%+ , no more 90% as expected. It business earning is intact, margin expected to be get better in April & onward as the lagging price will be better in Q2 period. However, mgmt delivery is still a question until it proven. For now, this stock purely for trading counter, not long term hold investment unless it's next Q2 result reflect the true performance picture. Then only reconsider what invest strategy to use.

Based on it disappointed Q1 Qtr result, I already lose profit one Camry car, quite sadden with the mgmt delivery result. We all are hit by surprise of its Qtr result report Vs what AGM mgmt said.

Anyhow, for its current share price below 6.00, it valuation still moderate and worth to keep as it stated Q2 lagging price ASP will reflect it true pciture & better due to strong demand and tighten supply in the market. I don't think crude oil will fly very high, it will stabilize within US$70 and below as more oil rig will open in US, oil inventories will increase eventually.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/05/01/lotte-chemical-q1-net-profit-down-on-lower-margin/

FYI, I buy back now more. This is one time deal, loss due to forex in US plant for expansion. Of course it cause by margin drop but it lagging time, ASP price.. not entirely business is bad. With current 5.50 & below, it cheap, some more 23sen dividend by next 2 wk ex-date.

We all hit by surprises that mgmt does reported Q1 & subsequent in 2018 will be good with no margin % being affected. Those who attend the AGM meeting, mgmt does stated it margin is not affected, but come out Q118 result was bad, unexpected of it.

My wrong on it EPS projection as I read through across all the sites that petrochemical demand is superb shortage & China policy rule. I also hit badly and sadden by this Qtr result out.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Inside the Qtr report, QoQ it mention that revenue is up by RM97mil, due to increase in sales volume up 4.6%, but utilization drop from 86% (Q4'17) to 83% (Q1'18) due to load down in Indonesia plant & lower Msia downstream plant.

PBT decreased RM82.1mil, -21.5% down due to margin squeeze & forex losses. Feedstock price increase, but ASP price picked up on lagging effect. The main key loss is the Forex loss RM44.6mil (huge) but this due to conversion in USD$ for it Louisana plant expansion plant due to RM strengthen. However it gain back of RM34.9mil in operation due to RM strengthen.
Some more it pay 18% tax vs last Qtr 6% tax relief, also contributed part of the losses as well.

Theire mgmt do say, petrochemical market will be continue resilient in near term & supply expect to be tighten in Asia region & demand expect to pick up too.

Oppurtunity to collect Genting when the price is undervalued. Expected 1Q18 GENS reported 17% up QoQ & 5% YoY improved due to more VIP & mass market crowd. Together with good financial cost expenses discipline management, sure cost control is better coming mths.

Some more upcoming, the biggest revenue contributor is on building now, GENM's GITP mega project is completing is indoor theme park by May'18 & final outdoor Theme park expected complete by end Oct'18.

So be a smart investor, dont blindly follow the herd mentality, buy when no people buy.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
'We estimate 1Q18 adjusted EBITDA was $297.6 million (up 5% y-o-y and up 17% q-o-q) on the back of higher FY17 average market share of 40% for both the VIP and mass markets,”'

GENS has also continued to maintain its cost discipline, with average trade receivable impairment at close to $9.5 million per quarter.


https://www.theedgesingapore.com/genting-singapore-likely-report-better-1q-higher-market-share-cimb

@Samuel, what i predict of TP RM12.48 can be achieveable if the whole petrochemical industry run short of supply, some more with uprising demand in China. Do not underestimate China government tighten environment rule policy, look for example of both Hartalega & Topglove, both glove makers make a superb profit return with higher PE value purely due to China factor of higher glove demand consumption (reason: China's local glove manufacturer force to close down or move out to other cities due to environment rule policy)

I do hope this petrochemical industry fate same as glove maker industry in coming next 6mth to 9mth. Only time can tell, we just patiently wait and let macro economic move in time.

hi Guy, here are the full version of 8 thing I learned in LCTITAN's AGM 2017.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/LCTITAN_2017AGM/155045.jsp

Happy Investing!

Try to look into my blogspot share of what i learned in LCTITAN's AGM 2017. I'm trying to finish writing the remaining 6 items of what I learned in AGM. Stay tune!

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/lctitan_AGM2017/154974.jsp

I'm strongly believe from mgmt talk & their confidence level, its 1Q18 EPS result will hit near to 20sen or better. Let see this coming Monday to verify it.

Guys, FYI.. LCTITAN coming 1Q18 Qtr result will be out this Monday 30th April.

@Samuel, I will post the outcome AGM info share in this forum.
@1536195874, my email add: kelvin_ik4u@yahoo.com, feel free to post your questionnaire. I try to ask, don't know if I have the opportunity to ask several question. Hope you dont spam my email :)

I will be going this AGM tomorrow & ask mgmt. question related to LCTITAN's overall business outlook, plant & utilization progression, execution & how will their mgmt going to capitalize this golden opportunities since overall petrochemical big macro economic is beneficial to non-CHINA export especially for coming Q2 & 2H18 projection.

Hope will be an interesting evening communication btw mgmt vs investor share-knowledge session.

Genting Fox World Studio store is open on this Saturday 21st Apr 2018. All merchandise of rides are ready to capture market need. Expected Genting full indoor theme park (Sky Tropolis) will fully open by June 2018, then follow by outdoors theme Fox century park by end of 2018.

I recently visited Genting Highlands, observed its development of its Genting Integrated Tourism Plan (GITP) properties, particularly its indoor (Sky Tropolis) rides are complete and ready to start, now in final stage of testing phase and trial runs before they open to public. Expected will start operation by May'18 period. Beside that, all of its retail space at Awana Skyway with F&B and retail tenants are fully occupied and operated now. This will bring more visitor & customer to GENM, eventually drive massive crowd to GenM casino for bigger revenue return.

Great opportunity to accumulate GENTING when price is low, revenue can grow big due to GENM big revenue growth + GENS high roller customer visit to both GENM & GENS casino. Expected share price can hit RM 10.50 by mid Oct 2018, within this year. Patience is the key here!

All fund mgr analyst (ex: Nomura, CIMB, etc) have the same prediction as mine. They predict GENM's GAGR is 24% annually from 2017 till 2019. That mean GENM can hit 7.50 ~ 8.00 by mid/end 2019 due to GITP transformation. Just that temporary, we need to bare with near-term pain of margins hurt due to potential increase operating costs. The casino operator’s margins could be under pressure “at least for the first half of 2018”, as the growing operational costs related to the opening of new facilities “could outpace” revenue growth.

Just be patience!

http://www.ggrasia.com/gen-malaysia-to-post-24pct-earnings-cagr-2017-19-nomura/

Genting Fox World Studio store is open on this Saturday 21st Apr 2018. All merchandise of rides are ready to capture market need. Expected Genting full indoor theme park (Sky Tropolis) will fully open by June 2018, then follow by outdoors theme Fox century park by end of 2018.

I recently visited Genting Highlands, observed its development of its Genting Integrated Tourism Plan (GITP) properties, particularly its indoor (Sky Tropolis) rides are complete and ready to start, now in final stage of testing phase and trial runs before they open to public.. Expected will start operation by May'18 period. Beside that, all of its retail space at Awana Skyway with F&B and retail tenants are fully occupied and operated now. This will bring more visitor & customer to GENM, eventually drive massive crowd to GenM casino for bigger revenue return.

Great opportunity to accumulate GENM when is low, revenue can grow very big by mid 2019. Expected share price can hit RM 7.50 by mid June 2019. That's ~50% growth in coming next 1 year period.

Patience is the key here!

More and more related news of chemical & petrochemical plastic shortage pops out from China.
China’s domestic petrochemical plastic (ex: polyethylene, methyl methacrylate (MMA)) prices are trading at their record highs and may remain supported by tight supply in both the local and import markets amid plant turnarounds.

Most downstream producers have been raising their prices to pass on the high cost of feedstock to end-users, and were either using up existing feedstock inventories or buying on a hand-to-month basis to cover immediate requirements. Expected other non-China export petrochemical countries will benefit the most in 1H2018 & 2018 year due to higher ASP price, better margin as result of tighten supply, plants maintenance shutdown & China environment policy rule.

China domestic MMA prices to stay firm on tight supply

https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2018/04/18/10212643/china-domestic-mma-prices-to-stay-firm-on-tight-supply/

China pushes ahead with new targets to improve country's environment

https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2018/03/29/10207521/china-pushes-ahead-with-new-targets-to-improve-country-s-environment/


Struggling Polyethylene In 2018, Strong Profits Elsewhere

http://www.icis.com/blogs/asian-chemical-connections/2018/01/struggling-polyethylene-2018-strong-profits-elsewhere/

Invests wisely! Whatever result come from GE14 will not affect business fundamental & industry sector as all based on supply-demand driven for company to growth.

Don't blindly follow the herd. Fear will arise if over concern toward share price up/down daily fluctuation noise. Look on big picture business & sector growth !

Good Opportunity to collect when price is down.
Margin-led earnings growth momentum in FY18F, earnings should grow significantly in 1Q18F and FY18F due to tight supplies and rising demand from China post ban from 1 Jan 18.

that true @SamuelLuke. It will slowly climb up, day to day for sure there is an resistance & support level price. As long big picture of business fundamental & macro sector economic is growing, it just a matter of time BIG fund manager will observe & come in to accumulate it. :)

Be patience, win the race!

My assumption is correct. If there is a worst-case trade war occur between US-CHINA, global PE prices will shoot up tremendously as lack of further tighten supply in the market. This will bring higher ASP price for petrochemical products for all non-US countries. Ultimately, it cause effect to raising the global price, since the US ‘price’ has just gone up by 25%. - most benefit is Asia petrochemical producers due to tight supply products.

Here, clearly show.. we should not fear of US-CHINA market trade war, in fact it benefit the most for Asia or non-US petrochemical producers!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
China tariffs to shock US and global chemical markets

04 April 2018 23:49 Source:ICIS Chemical Business

Contrary to the expectations of industry executives and analysts, China is directly targeting certain chemicals and polymers as it rolled out its list of $50bn in retaliatory tariffs against US imports.

“China has made it clear it doesn’t want a trade war but isn’t going to roll over if Trump wants it. China’s had over a year to plan for this, and you can see the tariffs are very carefully targeted,” said Paul Hodges, chairman of International eChem.

China did not mention a specific date for the 25% tariffs to take effect. It should be an effective bargaining chip against US tariffs. “Calling out chemicals explicitly… [is] likely to be more of a warning shot rather than a significant disruption for the industry. Trade flows should adjust relatively quickly, and most chemical companies have significant local production in China,” said Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander.

It’s still a shock. Delegates at the International Petrochemical Conference (IPC) hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) in San Antonio, Texas, in late March saw very little chance US chemicals would be directly targeted.

ICIS senior consultant John Richardson has been warning about the threat to US chemical exports in the ICIS Asian Chemical Connections Blog, where he saw $12.4bn of US chemical exports at risk.

Chemicals comprise about 40% of the list of 106 US products targeted by China tariffs, including polyethylene (PE), polycarbonate (PC), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), acrylonitrile (ACN), catalysts, lubricants, epoxy resin, acrylic polymers, vinyl polymers and polyamides.

“Oddly, neither styrene nor ethylene glycol were on the list – the two single largest volume chemicals exported from the US to China,” said Jonas Oxgaard, chemicals analyst at Bernstein.

The analyst does not expect the tariffs to have a US price impact, as the listed chemicals are a small percentage of US exports.

“For example, only around 6% of LDPE/LLDPE exports go to China, and out of those 6%, half are specialty grades,” said Oxgaard.

However, the US is gearing up for a huge wave of PE capacity coming on in 2018 and 2019, with much of it targeted for export. The tariffs include linear low density PE (LLDPE), most grades of LDPE, and medium density PE (MDPE) but excludes high density PE (HDPE).

“LLDPE may be the most impacted polymer volume wise, with 4.3% of the US production exported to China in 2017,” said James Ray, senior ICIS consultant.

GLOBAL PRICE WAR

A global price war becomes more likely if US product meant for China is diverted elsewhere, say Europe.

“The US is not going to stop producing. The potential for a price war was already high, but with tariffs, it would be a near certainty,” said Hodges. “There are two giants in the room – ethane-based integrated producers, and refinery-based integrated producers. They are… [going to] run full out. Everyone else better think of alternative plans and fast.” US PE volumes under tariff going to China would be extremely uncompetitive. “You can’t get through a 25% tariff barrier with something as commoditised as PE or PVC,” said Hodges.

PRICES TO ACTUALLY RISE?

A contrarian view is that global PE prices could actually rise. “If China buys from a source other than the US, that source will not have product for all of its current customers and US producers will fill the void,” said Cowen analyst Charles Neivert. “This may be a bit more costly because it will take multiple customers to fill the China volume. Ultimately, it might have the effect of raising the global price, since the US ‘price’ has just gone up by 25%.”

A China tariff on US PE could also limit additional global capacity. “Such an announcement would certainly disincentivise producers from embarking on the next wave of capacity additions in the US, making an already tight market tighter,’ said Alembic Global Advisors analyst Hassan Ahmed.

The American Chemistry Council (ACC) is understandably concerned. China imported 11%, or $3.2bn of all US plastic resins produced in 2017. And the US exported $11.5bn of chemicals and polymers, or 9% of its overall chemical exports, to China in 2017.

Stay firm, even Msia Parliament announced dissolved, going for election in May as expected.. that doesn't affect overall business growth. Most important, understand the company fundamental, business sector & crucial point of all - supply vs demand on bigger macroeconomic direction movement.

Don't easily get emotional swing due to market noise.

As you all may know as what I share in several blogs, why I strongly feel that coming 1H18 & next 2H18 for whole 2018 petrochemical industry sector will be a boom to overall business growth in Asia producer due to tight supply & tighten China environment rule policy. There will be a massive supply shortage globally especially for 2H18. As a result demand will rise & ASP price will shoot up high. News already stated ASP petrochemical alrdy uprise now, that a fact not fiction.

Look on glove sector business, why demand so high in 2H17 last year till now, demand and ASP price swing good, major effect due to China factor, close down and relocate their plant to fullfill tighten China environment rule policy.

Can this happen to petrochemical sector? Plan your investment wisely.

Happy investing!

Trump is a businessman, he definitely know what good and bad to US economy. Trade war unlikely will happen as the biggest revenues hit is the US farmers. Soya bean, cotton, pork, etc are main rice bowl for US farmer. Today soya bean commodity price drop another 5% due to Trump message want to retaliate. US farmers hit the most, some more in coming June, there will a midterm elections in US, sure backfire to Trump republican vote.

Trump want more for bargain talk with China.. but don't be rush to make decision just based on message.
Stay focus !

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/04/uneasiness-spreads-in-farm-economy-with-china-targeting-us-soybeans.html?recirc=taboolainternal

Stay firm and focus. Trump just want face, don't want to lose in front of China. It take Parliment vote & 2mth to take effect before new rule or law if that approved. Sure alot of farmers & Republican candidate will reject.

Buy and hold, don't repeat similar mistake. US farmers really choose a wrong and worst backward president in history. If hit farmers revenue the worst, they will regret indefinitely.

Trade is like a water flow. When one side of water flow was block, pressure build up on other side. Trade will be diverted to other non tariff countries, as consumers always hunt for better cost efficiency and better offer.

US Dow Jones rebound strongly from -500pts early to +200pts, & projected to keep on going up as earning season coming out starting mid April. Those who sell their share ystdy, goin to be regret and lick their own irrational action, not think before react. This just a side show from Tump, a bargain card talk with China. Trump's economics advisor are talking with China now, probably trade war wouldn't happen as it kill US trade revenue more severe than China does.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-ford-lead-list-casualties-112542015.html

I hope investors here are mature, don't blindly follow market noise. US has not passed the $50bil import tax yet, giving 60-days for citizen Parliment vote to response 1st, pending market response 1st. That's also apply to CHINA, still hold-on on when the effective implementation date will be.

Anyhow, US-CHINA trade war is ZERO or less impact to Asia petrochemical products demand, but in contra this actually help Asia's products demand increase much higher, better ASP selling margin price level due to US product much expensive (result in tax impose on US products, not on other countries).

Plus, you are buying good undervalued PE<8, multi-billion Korea Lotte corporate company, not high PE or penny stock, potential growth production capacity expansion (TE3 & PP3), recovery >90% production efficiency, high demand vs supply & cash-rich company (no debts).

Unless there is major crisis on its business fundamental or gloomy business sector, otherwise why sell as if like the end of the world is coming? As if you are have no experience or knowledge in investment at all, blindly join the crowd herd for panic selling without assessing the impact.

p/s: Maybe I should write less in future, sharing my info and research on stock selection sometime quite tiring, let market decide the future flow.

Happy investing!

Do not over-react. There will be a dividend payout of 23sen soon, opportunity to accumulate when panic selling sentiment is stabilize.

If rethink properly, actually we all know right now there is a major supply shortage of petrochemical globally. Trade war btw US-CHINA will only make US petrochemical product ASP price after tariff hit getting more expensive for US product ship to China. As a result, this actually much beneficial to South-east Asia petrochemical producers as Asia's petrochemical & other products price get much lower than US products due to no tax impose toward their products price.

Try to look into business common sense concept, is US-CHINA trade war will affect all finished products or commodities in the global market? As long as there is still high demand vs supply shortage, overall business fundamental will not impact and growth proportionally reflect to supply-demand macroeconomic justification.

Confirm, global petrochemical supply shortage is True, analyst expected PCHEM earning will improve in coming Qtrs result. The only issue is, PCHEM valuation is expensive, buy more or how depend on your own justification. No right or wrong!

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Supply-shortage-seen-boosti...

Confirm, global petrochemical supply shortage, expected PCHEM earning will improve in coming Qtr result. The only issue is, PCHEM valuation is expensive, so better do your own justification.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Supply-shortage-seen-boosting-Petronas-Chemicals-earnings

Thanks @Martinam. Hope upcoming LCTITAN's mgmt able to deliver good Qtr earning result based on macro economy trend change. I just share what is reported in real macro economic moving direction for potential stock to grow big.

Recalled back on last year 2017 mid June, when I spotted Topglove Hartalega & Kossan research reveal sudden unexpected butadiene nitrile raw price material big drop from $3100 to $1300 (70% drop), that trigger my decision to buy & hold. That bring me a good big fortune return profit!

Hope this time, petrochemical sector rebound back high for both LCTITAN & PCHEM.
I always trust, once done all your studies and research... just be patience and let the next 6mths to 18mths take its path for growth opportunity to win Big.

Good info to share here:
------------------------------------
There will be a global supply shortage of petrochemical products soon as China pushes ahead with new tighten environment policy rule in Mar'2018. Lead to more China's petrochemical plants closure & relocation, impact on the overall structure of the chemical industry, cause much longer cycle time for plant to recover in medium to long terms.

New China tighten environment policy rule bring to industry consolidation as the weakest and smallest players will not be able to afford the necessary production upgrades. Major shutdown and relocation of chemical plants, cause further supply shortage in the market. As a result, increase in imports subsitution outside of China, thus increase in ASP price margin due to shortage in global petrochemical products.

https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2018/03/29/10207521/china-pushes-ahead-with-new-targets-to-improve-country-s-environment/

Lctitan is in recovery share price as value buyers accumulate. Capacity expansion projects will add to product volume growth and also provide efficiency gains from the new and modern production facilities TE3 (commenced on 16th Dec 17) & PP3 (expected pull earlier to start commence on June'18).

I constantly read several articles reported PP, resin & PE price up by 20% ~ 30% due to tight supply vs demand market for petrochemical products especially for Asia market. Compare to initial Feb'18, ASP price was 5% ~ 8%, it appear that ASP petrochemical is getting higher now.

Just be patience, as long as LCTITAN's 3 main key point recovery on track, it should be fine. (1) demand and supply balance of petrochemical products; (2) ability to maximise production outputs and operational efficiency; and (3) feedstock prices stability, which are correlated to crude oil prices

Good news! News recently reported that Lctitan might be relist to top 30 KLSE blue chip. if it relisted, then more big fund mgr will come in and buy it, then higher valuation will be readjust to Lctitan, way better and higher with good share price support level.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/10-companies-market-cap-overtakes-fbm-klci-members

Key Indicator affect LCTITAN performance:

1) Oil price fluctuation, affect raw Naphtha price. If Naphtha price stable or going lower, that help all LCTITAN overall business

2) RM-US currency strengthen, improve overall business revenue. It buy raw material in global market using US dollar & sell petrochemical products to customer in local currency (M'sia/Rupiah)

3) Uprise petrochemical demand vs supply. Shortage of supply with higher demand cause higher ASP price, thus improve earning dramatically. MOST crucial point!!!!
---- several analyst reported since last Jan 2018, stated petrochemical demand is high due to shortage of petrochemical products. Strong industry demand and tight supply are fueling healthy margins.
i) Across many petrochemical producers in the Middle East are undergoing prolonged shutdowns, hence tightening global supply
ii) China government’s air pollution curb has led to the closure of many local producers that utilize older technology, thus forcing substitution via imports.

4) Global PMI - countries GDP measure KPI indicator, especially South-east economic is in firm growth territory.

5) Finally, most important of all! All indicator just a macroeconomics driven, important is company mgmt efficiency, trustworthy & transparency.

- LCTITAN business is recovering now from worst case, back to normalized business growth from unexpected bad condition (water supply, fire, supply, shutdown maintenance in past 2017). Now all are back to normal & business is stable.
- Plus, it is truly undervalued for a multi-billion dollar company, work under LOTTE mgmt. Potential is there.
- Only hope is existence mgmt. able to delivery good expected result for 2018 & recover from bad 2017. With normalized forward PE <10 and recovering back to normal operation, risk should be small vs other high PE or penny stock if mgmt. able to deliver expected Qtr result.

Do not trade warantt CG, it will burn off your money. Even if reach 6.50, it still worth zero as it baseline exercise is 6.50 & expired on end April. Better buy mother share instead of warantt. Slow and steady win the race. Don't be greedy.

Asia market is rebounding, Nikkei & South Korea turn positive +100pts. Hang Seng, Sgp Straits rebound up, perhaps table talk is on-going btw US-China, some light in the tunnel finally?

Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
Business fundamental & petrochemical macro sector is on good projection. You may value the potential with low PE, good business recovery for 2018. Some more majority fund mgr bought Lctitan ard 5.90 to 6.10 range, there sure have some support there.

Those other penny, high risk stock people also dare to buy for speculation, why this we so worry off? Risk come from not knowing what you buy.

Sentiment might be improving, China prepare to be more open, protect foreign IP & revised foreign share to 51:49 ownership for foreign companies open biz in China. US-China trade relationship will have a talk soon, as both trade war not economic benefit for both sides.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pbocs-yi-pledges-more-open-100007932.html

Market noise and price fluctuation does affect our medium to long term judgement. Important is the business fundamental growth or industry sector affected or not. No matter it can hit TP 6.5 or whatsoever, if the business revenue & earning is growing up, eventually it will raise as what Warren Buffet's advise for investor for long term gain. That what differentiate why less than 5~10% investor win multi-baggar return in share market vs 90% lose in equities market.

US tariffs started, impose $50bil on China import, 25% affect $13bil revenue lose for China. It kinda a small vs total US-China trade was $500bil per year. China retaliate with start impose $3bil tariffs on US import steel, fruit and wine.

This will not affect Lctitan as petrochemical does not ship to US, businees no impact. However market sentiment make cause investor fear. It will be an opportunity to collect from investors fear.

Recently Sinchew & Nanyang business section reported that analyst/fund mgrs who visited the LCTITAN plant-tour site, stated that it mgmt. predict plant utilization rate overall will reach average 90% for whole 2018, far better than 73% of last year. Plus, this year 2018 maintenance capital expenditure expected to reduce to ~RM100mil (2% ~ 3% of annual revenue) compare to RM400mil last year. It also stated that all improvement in Utilization on cracker is completely repaired & stable, operating performance efficiency will back to normalized >90% for 2018.

With strong product market demand, tightening global supply, China government environment policy curb for many local producers shutdown forcing substitution via imports, coupled with rising ASP selling price, I believe it will be good for LCTITAN for this 1H2018 at least.

I'm not expecting this 1Q18 Qtr earning to be a very outstanding result, as long as it EPS hit within 18sen ~ 20sen range, that a very good sign for massive projection growth for whole 2018. Improvement & recovery take time, so be patience and continue for a 2018 growth ride.

@Abismail, China impose this chemical duties tariff only for Methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) from South Korea, Japan and South Africa, to prevent dumping duties on Methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) from South Korea, Japan and South Africa. Only this item is affected & other chemical not affected so far. China raise this tariff to prevent this MIBK been dumped on the Chinese market, causing material injury to the domestic MIBK industry.

Anyhow, LCTITAN does not have the MIBK chemical product. LCTITAN main products are PE(Polyethylene), PP (Polypropylene) & Olefin (Ethylene, propylene, butadiene, etc). So it is safe from China duties impose export item.

https://gbtimes.com/china-to-slap-tariffs-on-chemical-from-south-korea-and-japan

Read through LCTITAN's website for more product info:
http://www.lottechem.my/products/productGuide_view.asp

Have faith toward Korea Lotte mgmt., LCTITAN share is on consolidation price, testing seller sentiment & mood with less volume. Low volume, yet price stand quite firm. My believe, it's an accumulate mode period for patience buyer before price re-spike up again.

I don't know why people so fear of the 6.50 share price level. This company have no debts, undervalued, upcoming TE3 & PP3 production output with additional >40% capacity up, efficiency normalized back to >90% soon, stable raw naptha price, ASP price readjust higher, tight supply Vs demand. What more you all worry about? Just a matter of timing only it will break and exceed 6.50 level.

We just hope next 1Q18 EPS Qtr result is within 20sen, Lctitan's mgmt as to deliver it, then it will fly exceed 7.00 immediately. If even worst case scenario, it 1Q18 result same as 4Q17, it still PE 10 value. It still cheap for a growth company with macro economics benefit to this petrochemical sector now.

@spy008, I just can tell is happening. medium term, ASP price goes up now due to global shortage.

I believe for LCTITAN this is a good time for share accumulation mode.
ASP price for petrochemical is in actual increasing now since early Feb'18, ard 5%~8% increase across all petrochemical products due to tight supply vs global demand in the market.

Based on my estimate calculation, combine both TE3 & new PP3 plant's total prouduction output capacity, it will bring additional 40% ~ 50% on top of current production capacity. This is a huge gain growth for LCTITAN for whole year 2018. Beside that, since early Feb'18 till Mar 15th, current feedstock Naphtha market price is stable within USD$ 500 ~ $550 range due to oil price expect to stay firm within $55 to $65 range.

From here, you may calculate & do the maths as of how far this LCTITAN can grow in 2018 from current share price to end 2018 time fame, if you aim for long term gain return.

FYI, share from Maybank analyst report - why market expect High demand for petrochemical sector for 1Q18

4Q17 was good as expected:
---------------------------------------
Both PCHEM and LCT had a good 4Q17, which was expected. Both management teams guide that market demand is strong coupled with tight supply in the near term. Furthermore, higher crude oil price is pushing for higher petrochemical prices. To surmise, we can expect a strong upcoming 1Q18. Stay invested, as both PCHEM and LCT are pushing maximum factory utilization and the results could potentially surprise positively.

LCT product volumes should improve materially in 2018 as all of its plants are on-line with no major scheduled shutdowns.

1Q18 is looking exceptionally strong because:
----------------------------------------------------------------
1) many petrochemical producers in the Middle East are undergoing prolonged shutdowns, hence
tightening global supply;
2) China producers were stocking-up ahead of CNY;
3) China government’s air pollution curb has led to the closure of many local producers that utilize older technology, thus forcing substitution via imports.

Prices of all the major petrochemicals have thus far risen in 2018 and the latest Global PMI is in firm growth territory. The petrochemicals sector is currently in a sweet spot. Strong industry
demand and tight supply are fueling healthy margins.

China is throwing a curveball at the industry
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The Chinese government has implemented several regulations that have significantly impacted its manufacturing sector, and also the demand-supply balance for raw materials globally.

China accelerates pollution campaign:
In Sep 2017, the government launched a five-month campaign in 28 northern cities to improve air quality during the winter months. In addition, 72 coal-fired electricity plants were closed, along with 44,000 small coal-fired furnaces. The message from the government was that it will only tolerate modern technologies that comply with high emission standards. Many production facilities have closed temporarily in order to upgrade their infrastructure whilst others have closed down permanently.

China bans recycled plastics:
China has banned the importation of scrap plastic and recycled polyethylene effective 1 Jan 2018. This has taken the global petrochemical industry by surprise as many had doubted China’s genuineness to do so, as waste plastic imports is a major raw material for many of its industries. In 2016, China imported 7.3m tonnes of waste plastic which makes up 56% of world imports. All this scrap plastic exclusion will likely be replaced with virgin supply, thus suggesting basic petrochemical prices will stay firm.

Risk or Downside to petrochemical (LCTITAN):
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1) Sudden collapse in petrochemical spreads or extreme volatility may have an adverse impact on earnings.

2) Unscheduled factory shutdowns that could materially reduce utilisation rates and product volumes.

3) Naphtha prices rises much faster as compared the rise in petrochemical prices.

Naphtha price / feedstock raw material volatility, tied to Oil price fluctuation, however LCTITAN's mgmt. guiides that production volumes have improved to historical levels as they are able to ramp-up production rates smoothly post the turnaround of their naphtha crackers.

Maybank analyst forecast that 2018 utilisation rate to be at >90% levels (2017: 73%) and this will boost strong volume growth on a YoY basis. This should mitigate some of the impact of higher
naphtha cost in the period.

Value Proposition (LCTITAN):
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1) Malaysia’s largest integrated polyolefin manufacturer and ASEAN’s fourth largest; Indonesia’s largest polyethylene manufacturer.

2) Ambitious but realistic expansion plans to grow its nameplate capacity by 73% in the next five years via a combination of greenfield and brownfield projects.
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3) Significant barriers to entry for potential competitors due to regulatory hurdles, capital intensity and technological know-how.

4) One of the lowest cost naphtha based petrochemical producers in the world, by estimate.

5) Global PMI firmly in expansion territory and tight supply demand dynamics suggest product spreads


LCTITAN set to 'BUY', cheapest ASEAN based petrochemical
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Unchanged earnings forecasts have imputed Our unchanged earnings forecasts have imputed for 90% average capacity utilisation in 2018 (2017: 73%) and flat YoY blended ASPs. At the current
share price, LCT is the cheapest Asian petrochemicals based on EV/EBITDA and P/BV measures. Coupled with respectable dividend yields, we advocate accumulating LCT shares. LCT has proposed a final 23sen DPS for 2017 which translates into an immediate 4% yield.

Just to share:

Further self-research to understand what is global petrochemical market forecast outlook alike in next 5years. To my surprise, across all global world analysts & economist prediction, it stated that global petrochemicals industry market expected to reach a value of US$885.1 bn by the end of 2020, exhibit a progressive 6.80% CAGR between 2017 and 2020.

That's mean, global petrochemicals market is very healthy and on further growing path of 6.80% GAGR growth of total year to year expansion. That's answer my query why across all countries US, China & South-east Asia expanding their petrochemical plants in last recent years as demand vs supply is not enough to meet global demand, thus expand their output production & efficiency.


Global Petrochemicals Market (market research) - snapshot:
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The global petrochemicals market is growing at a significant pace and is likely to witness a healthy competition in the next few years. The increasing focus on the expansion of the product portfolio and the rising application areas are anticipated to encourage the growth of the global market throughout the forecast period. The market is likely to witness a substantial demand from emerging economies worldwide. Furthermore, the development of the automotive sector and the increasing construction activities are predicted to supplement the growth of the market across the globe.

According to the research study, the global market for petrochemicals is expected to reach a value of US$885.1 bn by the end of 2020. The market is likely to exhibit a progressive 6.80% CAGR between 2017 and 2020.

Lctitan declared x-date dividend 23sen on 16th May 2018, payout on 8th June 2018. This is 4% dividend payout even with current share price 5.77. Immediately get dividend payout within 2mths even u buy now, much better than put in FD saving for 1 year get less than 4%.

@enning22, current Lctitan's Indonesia existing consist of 3 plants (PE1, PE2 and PE3 - Indonesia) with a combined output capacity of 450,000 tonnes of PE. Lctitan's mgmt. already have the plan & initiative to develop its plants in Indonesia and increase production of PE, set up the Integrated Petrochemical Facility, which comprise of a cracker plant as well as polyolefin, olefin and derivatives plants.

Upon completion, the new facility is expected to supply sufficient additional feedstock of up to 1,000,000 tonnes of ethylene to fully meet the requirements of its Indonesia plants, olefin and derivatives which bring huge increase of its production of PE.

However, this is a long term plan, commercial operation of this facility is expected to commence in year 2023, still 5 years to go for this new facility to generate new source of revenue. Anyhow, this is a good initiative to further boost it revenue for next 5years plan.

Majority global market indices drop due to most investors fear of Trump's tariff import in US, that might trigger trade war btw US vs other countries. Not matter what the outcome, this does not affect Lotte-Titan petrochemical business as majority of its total revenue come from Msia (39%), Indonesia (29%), while remaining derived from export market (China, Southeast-Asia, South Korea & Europe). There is NO impact to LCTITAN business revenue overall, business still on-going.

This more like market sentiment jerk reaction. Invest wisely & Do your own research!