thank you.. good morning.. :)

suregain, the above article from which org?

Sound more logical.. If PE 6?

Refinery stocks in this region are about 6 or 7 at this moment..

Sui.. Like.. Cheers..

LOL..

I am watching.. wait for the big fish... shhh.. touch-touch only. I want above.

Probability post the same chart 18 July..

At RM5.90, HRC PE (ttm) is 3.45 and Petronm (RM8.20) PE (ttm) is 6.72...

@Lee, I don't take the tip bulat-bulat. I will perform my detail analysis.. sometime include sending communicate with the company contact person for clarification.

I can't read 700+ company reports.. based on pointer I narrow down to several companies.. So far so good. My return is good, especially 2017.

@pang, actually not true. comparing 3 months (from 24 April), HRC up 49.75% and Petronm up 26.35%. As for YTD, HRC up 190.64% and Petronm up 97.59%.

Let me know any good tip in the future..

So strong.. at 5.90.. buy in lot of 800, 700, 500..etc.. look like just sapu by some big player... not bilis like us.

For information only..MBSB property loan is minimum. Mainly personal loan and corporate loan.

Recap... for new comer..
1. HRC business operation only one - oil refinery.
2. Refinery capacity 156,000 barrel per day
3. Refinery profit margin average of USD 6.07 per barrel in 2015 and USD 5.46 per barrel in 2016.
4. Net profit for 2015, 352 million (EPS 117 cents). For 2016, 335 (EPS 112 cents)
5. Profit margin is increasing, for 2017 so far is above USD 7 per barrel; at this moment July 2017 above USD 9 per barrel. Theoritically net profit for 2017 should be far more than 2016 and 2015.

Simple logic.. the only problem now is investors confident. let hrc report another few Q of good net profit. will be back to rm10 ..

i concur.. like.

I agree, EPS for 2017 at least RM2.00+.. In view of margin is increasing..possibility may reach RM3.

This is good share.. growing revenue, good profit, good management, good dividend.. bright future.

I manage to bought some mid and end of May 2017.. Happy to see it moving fast now.

Orang up 30, kita up 6.. orang drop 11, kita pun drop 10.. :( not too nice. LOL.

What is going on here today?

All of a sudden moving up so much..

I hold some, few months already.. :).

At RM5.80 HRC PE ratio (TTM) is only 3.39... if PE ratio for refinery is 6... mean HRC could worth RM10..

As for Petronm (RM8.36) PE ratio (TTM) is 6.85. If refinery plus retail PE ratio is 10.. mean Petronm worth RM12.20..

DrNeoh,
Can share the reasons?

Let analyst the negative side... (since we have discussed positive side in great detail)

Why HRC share price is low (compare with Petronm) at this moment.. following are possible reasons/ reasons being discussed so far....
1. Some ppl think HRC is chinaman company, 'red chip'.. can not be trusted.
2. No dividend since 2013
3. Refinery facilities need upgrade, abt RM700mil needed..
4. No retail outlet; petrol stations (but HRC supply to Shell abt 1000 station compare with petronm 580)..
5. Government will change policy anytime suka suka..
6. Oil price will drop to below USD30
7. HRC has 1.3 bil borrowing
8. No institution buying HRC
9....
Anyone can think of others..

1, Not true lor... HRC is Malaysian incorporated company under Malaysia law. Not red chip lor.
2. Yes, hopefully HRC board of director can consider next financial year.
3. Yes, this is needed compliant to the law and also improve the efficiency. (Petronm need 6.5 billion to upgrade their facilities)
4. Without petrol station, concentrate on refinery could be more profitable..
5. Mis-concept.. Government can not suka-suka. It is guided by law...rule and regulation.
6. Should be benefiting instead of disadvantage.
7. Yes, we also must look at HRC has 300 mil cash and 1 bil inventory.
8. No, refer to AR.. ASB (6.62%), ASW (3.68%), EPF (2.66%)..AS AT 31 March 2017.

CKCS, I believe you. Share price up and down.. definitely will go below current price... However I have started accumulating HRC when it was RM3+.. in fact more than half of my currently holding are.. I am not too worry HRC dip down below RM5 or even RM4... again over the time I did some buy/sell trx... my cost is adjusted lower.. As long as long term up trend, I am happy.. I don't expect RM18... but I think above RM10 is very possible in medium term.

Look at HRC prior oil crisis under Shell Refinery. It share price is always above RM10.. in fact at all time higher than Esso (Petronm). Petronm took over Esso much earlier than HRC. They have restructured and improve Esso, but HRC took over Shell about 6 months ago... they may need some time...

There are still few 'issues' need to taken care by HRC. Once 'resolved', HRC go above RM10 is not impossible..

Hi CKCS,
Do you think how much HRC will drop? RM4, RM3 or RM2... and briefly when it will drop, let me have some time to take profit!! :)... appreciate your sharing..

NTA will have to increase.. If HRC EPS RM2, totally no dividend.. NTA (in theory) should increase by rm2 every year... in the form of cash, asset, lesser borrowing..etc.

During recent AGM, the chairman did mentioned that they are looking at SEA not Malaysia alone. I believed they will expand to SEA once they stable the situation.

HRC is not red chips.. The board of director, 4 Malaysian, 2 Chinaman, 1 Angmo. Management team all Malaysian, 4 Melayu, 1 Indian and 1 Chinese.

Hi,
Datuk Yvonne Chia and Datuk Zainun no longer director of HRC effective 1st June 2017. Replaced by Mr Liang Kok Siang and Pn Faiziah Hisham.

Lotte Korea parent company in very big trouble due to the installation of THAAD missile systems..more than half of their store at china were force closed by chinese local authority recently. All Korean products were boycott by Chinese/Russian. They need plenty of money to bring back to stabilize the situation..

KIA car sales drop by about 75% in china... you can imagine how serious is the situation between Korea and China.

Yes. RM7.x is more realistic for short term... RM10.!! can buy underwear cap bintang already... LOL..

One off gain... related to asset impairment RM460.9 mil dated 31 Dec 2014?

Yes, in two months with greater profit.. Please look at slightly longer term. This could be a good opportunity to add..

Today I add a little more.. LOL.

This is CAPEX.. like buying asset. Depreciate over the years.

http://digital.theedgemalaysia.com/theedgemediagroup/books/tem/2017/20170612tem/#/23/


I am not sure it can be link without subscription..

Let don't be too optimistic on TP. Rm1.6 is ok but not rm4. MBSB has some advantage over other banks but at the same time also has a lot of disadvantages..example weak management, staff knowhow, backward systems..etc etc. They need a lot of time to clean up and improve.. 2 to 3 years maybe too short for them... they are not cimb or citi type of ppl.. move much much slower than you think.

Probability, your prediction this morning become reality.. cun cun.

Both volume is so low... no seller.

Base on AR, inventory is base on actual cost...

Good analysis. It further enhance my confident to hold even longer.

Why china want to invest in Malaysia (and other belt road countries) and build a lot of infra?

There are several reasons..
1. China has trillion of dollar in US treasury bond with practically ZERO return. Instead of let Ang Mo freely spend. They created Asia Infrastructure Bank to invest.. WHen they invest in our Infra they charge some interest and we will pay back over the years.. so they got untung here.
2. Over the years building their internal infrastructure, China has come to a situation too much infra building material,, steel, cement..etc. With our project they redirect the excess material to us... again they untung.
3. With these infra ready trade will improve... most importantly they can easily buy raw material for these countries... china untung again..
4..
5. and many more.

In short it is win win situation.

meistsk, I disagree with you. I did do a little study on belt & road initiative.

His holding in HRC and Petronm is really substantial; should be much heavier in HRC. His inaccurate and funny comments is due to he intends make the weaker doubtful and finally left...so....LOL.

Noted.. My target not reach yet. I will hold until my target or above.. not less 1 cents.
I have same feeling with you, HRC worth for more than this price. However it need a lot more time.

I add more early this morning.. :)

If I remember correctly from AL, Shell/HRC sell crude oil only less than 10 milion a year. Compare with refinery above 8 Billion a year.

Noticed that one (or more) big player perform market sell in block (of hundred) since 3 days ago when the price was rm5.80. Each day several round..

Correction.. Crude oil already recover from usd100 and company is making profit in 2015.

If we analyst "Independent Advice Circular dated 19 January 2017", we can find the reasons why shell sell their 51% to Shangdong Hengyuan. I believe beside these reasons there are more 'hidden' reason at higher level between Shell (Dutch) and Shandong Hengyuan (china).
At that point of their negotiation the shell refinery share price is around RM5 to 6, crude oil around USD100 and company making losses.