(1) 天下沒有白吃的晚餐
好壞一起-----(好)是(昨天),(壞)是(今天),(明天)是(死路)-----如果我們能夠更加努力,不斷地把每個(今天)變得比每個(作天)更(加好)一點-----那末每個(今天)就會比上一個(昨天)更好---------每個(明天)本來就是每個(今天)的死路因為我們永遠在(今天)都不會知道(明天)是會怎末樣?
(2) 緣分是什莫東西? 想信大家早已經忘記了,現在的經濟是停頓,沒有錯,我們可以在等一下,人家是有常常聽到別人對我講,你這兩巴士沒坐上不用擔心,你就等做下一輪的巴士,說不下一輪巴士更好也說不一定,說不定你不要等反而吃虧.
(3) 快12月了,當然外資是無心陪你玩的,外資也要吃飯,何必大驚小怪呢?現在外資賣EPF買,以後外資買EPF賣. 下一個買點說不定就是後年,榴槤也不是沒天可以吃到,你越想要吃榴槤不是更辛苦嗎.
(4)不知道有什莫間旅行社的公司是掛牌上市的,你不用想太多,現早一個地方去爽爽一下先在回來不是很好.不要胡思亂想,什末銀行是經濟指標,什末所有東西的價錢都在下跌. 是有下跌但是是百分之5%左右.
(5) 你心裡面對我早就有成見,總是認為,我升利率的目的,好想是要害所有東西都會跌價. 把我們當成好想三歲小孩不懂,好像利率上升價格就會下跌,這個道理是沒錯,但是你不懂得變通,上面跟下面不是一樣,一件事情是要做到25~30年, 這個升利率的事情,是要做到25~30年的事情,是要讓你爽25~30年的事情,沒有讓你爽這末久, 你怎末可能滿足,我是要每次輕輕的碰你一下,你開始你會不習慣這我可以理解你,但是我們是要再一起25~30年的,你不可能叫我永遠都不要把,這太慘忍了把,你叫我偶爾都不能碰你一下,你叫我偶爾都不能升利率,這實在是不敬人情把.

陈鼎武先生,你犯了全天下男人都會犯的錯誤。你很會辦事情,辦到你自己爽死之後,你以為爽在前面死在後面,你時時刻刻都想要落跑,你反而鼓勵別人向你學西,而你就像美國人學,教大家本來就因該睡過就要放麥記。

The hardware are getting cheaper and cheaper that is why. It is very difficult to be hardware companies or else Sony, Masushita, Sharp, and Dell, and others are having troubles. It is becoming a sunset industry not because people are not using touch screen devices (TVs,smartphones,PC monitors). The companies that manufacture these devices that are becoming the sunset industry, Err RJ. Why don't you go back to Junior College and start learning
what is Business 101 because you start investing?

PIE is not foxconn. PIE is controlled by a company in Taiwan managed by Terry Guo's daughter and son-in-law. I　ｈｏｐｅ　ｙｏｕ　ｄｏｎ’ｔ　ｍａｋｅ　ｔｈｅ　ｍｉｓｔａｋｅ　ｏｆ　ｔｈｉｎｋｉｎｇ　ｔｈａｔ　ＰＩＥ　ｉｓ　ｆｏｘｃｏｎｎ．ＰＩＥ　ｉｓ　ｏｎｌｙ　ｒｅｌａｔｅｄ　ｔｏ　Ｆｏｘｃｏｎｎ　ｂｅｃａｕｓｅ　ｏｆ　ｔｈｅ　ｔｉｅｓ　ｂｅｔｗｅｅｎ　ｆａｔｈｅｒ　ａｎｄ　ｄａｕｇｈｔｅｒ．　Ｔｈｅｒｅ　ａｒｅ　ｔｗｏ　ｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｔ　ｃｏｍｐａｎｉｅｓ　ｂｕｓｉｎｅｓｓ　ｗｉｓｅ．Ｉ　ｈｏｐｅ　ｙｏｕ　ｇｅｔ　ｔｈｉｓ　ｒｉｇｈｔ，　Ｅｒｒ　ＲＪ．

(1) At first I have only one problem---I do not understand the price of the stock because this is a malaysian company which is a pretty small investment of the Taiwan parent company. They usually imported factory equipment from the Taiwan parent to this company if you have been following the purchase of equipment of the company closely. This company made very low end product and pc based for their clients when pc was a hot item. They set up factory here because their client came here. Now pc components are made and assembled mostly in China, they don't have that kind of advantage down the road anymore. They try to diversify to other products, if you follow their annual report last year. This company's technical ability is quite limited, they mostly do labor intensive stuff, or assembled of components for their clients.

(2) My second problem is: After you understand the nature and background of the company. You should try to analyze what can the company you are investing in do for their clients. Do you think this company can make touch screen devices (TVs,smartphones,PC monitors)? To by pass Sharp, it was rumored on the newspaper that the parent company Foxconn may put up TWD175 billion just to set up a touch screen monitor factory for the smartphones. Do you still think this company can do all the things you said? If you think it can, you have no knowledge of what you are saying, this is my own opinion.

這是一個好跟壞的世界,但是我個人認為:"昨天是那個好,今天是那個壞,明天是那個死路".我們應該要從這樣的想法開始去做股票. 天下沒有白吃的晚餐,但是我們都不會餓死是因為,我們懂得先去想別人或大家的問題所在.不要老是先替自己想,要先替別人想,先要了解別人的問題.你只有去做那些,你能夠幫別人解決問題的事情,你才不會餓死,你才不會有死路.祝各位:心想就事成,馬到就成功.

放屁話!,股市是不會因為經濟危機恐慌性下跌的。講的全部都是別人的想法,這種人的腦袋全部長在別人的屁股上 。如果人沒有先犯錯,老天是部會先犯錯的。我個人深信只要我們大家共同努力,替自己跟別人想辦法,世界將是一個永遠都在進步的地方。有些人的工作其實是在幫自己算命,然後把決果隨便告訴別人,這種人實在是對社會一點供獻出一點力量都沒有。你不用相信這些算命人的畫,它們不能夠救你的不用付金錢給它們。天理:一分耕耘一分收獲,只要我們國家的人民都很努力,我們的股市不會讓算命的講講就一定的下跌的。講股票會上漲的時候是要賣你股票,講股票會下跌是要賣你基經或債券,講來講去還不是要賺你的錢而已。經濟或股市短期需要停頓但不會下跌,經濟不好的時候,只有商品或貴重的黃金會下跌比較厲害。現在銀行利率這末低,結構好大公司的股票現在是最好的投資時期,這些大公司的股票不會大幅下跌,尤其是美國。但是,未來美國股市的漲幅不會先前的漲幅,所以亞洲股市特別是中國會漲比較多。現在資金氾濫,而股票又是最能夠代表現金,股市是要如下跌呢,現金是不會自己下跌的。唬人也不用這莫沒智慧。因為我們不能老是靠美國,所以亞洲人就算比較辛苦,我個人認為天無絕人之路。最重要的是,我們已經不能夠再靠別人了,我們需要更加靠自己了,這裡指的自己是亞洲各國。馬來西亞那些在鄰居國家有業務的公司將是最好的投資標的。馬來西亞貨幣在貶值,馬來西亞房地產的價格是要如何跌下去呢,只是那些比較差的建築公司,規劃不善的,才會有麻煩。這裡是馬來西亞,這裡不是地域,你要相信自己更要靠自己。

It might not be a bad idea to put a Lion insignia on the Bank's trademark. This way the stock's behavior will not be appearing like somebody is kenching.

The day of reckoning. The old government that only gives you 27 cents. You probably should remember this until the next time you vote. But Malaysians are always grateful for what they have, they have sympathy, this time it is the Malaysians that approve the plan that wins, it is not Khazanah or the government that wins. We basically just give them back the junkyard for 27 cents a share.

Hi Vinvin, I also wrote some silly commentｓ in NCB the northport operator and Sarawak Plantation Swkplnt. If you want "something" to laugh at, you can check them out. I　ｄｏｎ’ｔ　ｋｎｏｗ　ｗｈａｔ　ｉｓ　ｗｒｏｎｇ　ｗｉｔｈ　ｍｅ　ｔｏｄａｙ．　Ｉ　ｔｈｉｎｋ　ｔｈｅ　ｗｅａｔｈｅｒ　ｊｕｓｔ　ｃｈａｎｇｅｄ　ｆｒｏｍ　ｆａｉｒｌｙ　ｈｏｔ　ｔｏ　ｑｕｉｔｅ　ｗｉｎｄｙ　ｃｏｌｄ　ａｔ　ｍｙ　ｐｒｅｓｅｎｔ　ｐｌａｃｅ．

They bought all the assets very cheap when the foreigners were looking to dump their shit loads after the 2009 crisis. If only they could turn things around by cutting cost, they are going to do very well. This day everybody not idot also know that we must go global or form a lot of partnershipｓ. Local businesses are strinking and we must go global or go to a bigger market platform. I hate people criticizing their global operations because any bank that don't have a global operation will cease to exist in 10 years time. The sky also change all the time. Don't you think that when the sky can change why can't the tide change in favor of CIMB down the road. Globalization is future, you have to do this and they must do this, Iｄｏｎ’ｔ　ｋｎｏｗ　ｙｏｕ　ｒｅａｌｉｚｅｄ　ｉｔ　ｏｒ　ｎｏｔ．

The very expensive stock. Even foxconn the mother company is shifting to movie production and 4G telephone services. The hardware is sunset industry. In my opinion, the price is high because the person that manipulate this stock is thinking that he is living in a third-world country as he hasn't realized that hardware or wiring could be the sunset industry next in line. How can a price go up so high to 6 something or 8 something and everyday few volume at all. You could be sitting on a sunset industry, hello, this is market time wake up.

The bola that jatoh from Heaven. Does it already hit you? Heaven is a place or is not a place full of liars lying to themselves. What do you think? It is a good thing for a lot of people who drives a car, as the gasoline prices get dropping, they will become more happy. I don't know whether heaven miss this time or not. Actually, the heaven probably want to give the bola to car drivers but you mistakenly stand in the wrong place and it hit you. We must have the courage to hope that the price fall to RM$2.50 so we can buy in some more to average those that we buy higher. Think low and aim high. But stay ready first.

Hi vinvin, I wrote some silly comment today in Lion Ind. If you don't mind please take a look. I like to take risk in a small way and I might take some risk in that counter.

Hello, vinvin, you are the best. I feel so ashame of myself, I　ｎｅｖｅｒ　ｒｅａｌｉｚｅｄ　ｂｅｏｒｅ　ｔｈａｔ　＂Ｙｏｕ　ａｒｅ　ｔｈｅ　Ｂｅｓｔ．Ｔｑ　ｆｏｒ　ｔｈｅ　ｃｏｍｍｅｎｔ．Ｉ　ａｍ　ｈｏｐｉｎｇ　ｔｈａｔ　ｗｅ　ｔｕｒｎ　ｌｕｃｋｙ　ｂｕｔ　ｗｅ　ａｒｅ．　Ｂｕｔ　ｔｈｉｎｇｓ　ｏｎｌｙ　ｈａｐｐｅｎ　ｏｎｃｅ　ｉｎ　ａ　ｂｌｕｅ　ｍｏｏｎ．　Ｗｅ　ｃａｎ　ｓｔｉｌｌ　ｏｕｒｓｅｌｖｅｓ　ｂｅｃａｕｓｅ　ｔｈｅ　ｈａｐｐｙ　ｔｉｍｅ　ｉｓ　ｎｏｔ　ｏｖｅｒ　ｙｅｔ．　Ａｒｅ　ｙｏｕ　ｈａｖｉｎｇ　ｆｕｎ　ｌａｔｅｌｙ？

(1) They have to buy things that people don't want, (2) Make Improvement On It, (3) Use more market ways to grow their business.

Asset growth tallies with liability growth and roe is down. This shows the company has not been very effective in improving efficiency. the other reason may be the company has too much competition in the local market. Asset management is a good field but how to enlarge the company's market share in the insurance business posses a big challenge for the company. As for the lending business, I am neutral on this area.

See, CIMB always think they are the best in Malaysia, while all the eyes are fixed on their performance, they start to show weakness. How can investors and customers have faith in the Bank when the Bank and its employees do not have the faith in themselves, that is why the stock fell a lot lately. The Boss is afraid to tell the employees who looks after the Bank's share price to push up the price of the shares. EPF and Amanah Salem are also scared too. Scared of what, the foreigners' dropping bola. They forgot that CIMB is Malaysia and Malaysia is CIMB! Something start to be missing from their hearts. There is nothing right or wrong on this earth, there are always going to be adversities and challenges and opportunities. You have to have the courage to fight on or else you become nothing tomorrow. What for create a merger Yesterday when Tomorrow comes everyone already thought that you are nothing from what you are doing Today? This is how people sometimes make a dead road for tomorrow for themselves.

要進步是一定要改變，這個觀念，請不要有:所有事情都只是會接受現成然後在放馬後炮。你們都只是會做一些對自己沒有利益的事情，真正的做人道理一竅不通，生命毫無方向，沒有判斷能力，腦袋長在別人的頭上還很得意。我還是覺得冷眼先生你很會吹牛，這篇文章沒有前瞻性，沒有提到現在股票市場非常脆落是要如何應對。你只會提到你昨天有多神勇，因為你怕沒有人肯相信你，就是這個缺點讓你露餡。

這些是本人的個人意見，請各問自己斷定:

(1)股价与业绩成正比=股價只需要看本益比，當然現在的本益比越低越好。业绩要看未來的爆發點，不是觀看昨天的英勇事蹟，這篇文章真的很土。

(2)选股是投资成败关键=你只會騙自己騙別人，JCY(过時的產業獲利不佳)，L&G(小家碧玉很多年來都沒有表現)，Fitters(投機的股價已漲高)。你真的是人不可貌相，說的跟做的都是兩碼事。

(3)研究后脱售马航股票=不用幸災樂禍，很多人也是馬航的股東包括我自己買在RM$0.18。你不是馬航的股東，這並不能表示，你有先見之明。但是你卻把馬航的遭遇，承受兩起重大空難之後，你還在你的文章講馬航，幸災樂禍，講自己下面的偉大，沒想到你就這末低俗。


(4)不考虑投资航空股=這句話是巴菲特最近說的，你不要臭美，上個星期美國yahoo的新聞很多人都知道。我懷疑你這篇文章跟他那篇很像，你把它翻譯然後加一些你的英雄事蹟。

(5)没后悔错过亚航=亚航反而大賺錢的公司，你卻要修辱這間公司。

(6)短期投资更难赚钱=你不用講自己有多清高，你最近所寫的文章推薦的股票都是低價股，年獲利少於RM$50million 的小公司，你过去最常介紹的小公司，小公司當然基礎不牢固 (淨利少於50 million)。你說短期投资更难赚钱，難道這些基礎不牢固的公司就可以當作長期投資嗎?

(7)贴身跟进公司进展=這只有證券公司營業人員才能做到，普通的投資人如何能夠有這樣的機會呢?紙上談兵。

(8)长期投资短期操作=這不是自打嘴巴嗎?(1)長期投資"宁愿错过，不愿买错"但是，(2)"短期投资更难赚钱"，這也是你說的把?你自己說:你長期以來都不曾買錯股票，你為什莫還要短期操作呢?你不是說:"短期投资更难赚钱"?

(9)股价须与基本面挂勾=股价是市場的指標，隨市場投資人的心理狀態隨時都有可能在變化。基本面是一間公司的特質或體質，這不會受，投資人的心理狀態，左有他的表現。股价隨時變化，這是不可能跟公司基本面挂勾的。股神巴菲特說:如果市場決定的股价能夠準確地判斷一間公司的真正基本面，他老早就已經變成一位乞丐了。


文采根本不值錢，英文叫Very Cheap，"市場街"三個只要賣一塊錢，但是搖搖批股起來很高明!

答案: 做人就是要善巧。
地球上是一個(好跟壞)同時存在的地方，你或任何公司要成功就一定要善巧。
如何善巧，最簡單的方法就是到廟裡去問師父善巧的(1)真正意識(2)先依照師父講的話去做
(3)你才會領悟。千萬不要自己自做聰明，千萬不要自己妄想和我執，千萬不要
跟你自己沒有緣份的人或公司交往。你要棄舊迎新，你要做你自己，你才能進步。
我想信，如果冷眼先生，真的是一位高人，他一定會很喜歡接受，
我給他的批評跟考驗，這樣他才會寶刀未老。
你們的性格好像都不太適合買股票，你們要學會做壞人同時心地要善良
---這叫善巧。提示:會讓你賺錢的人或公司一定是一個善巧的人或公司。
上面跟下面替你們寫的是孫子兵法+佛經的一起的作法，
希望對讀者的人生對人對事都會有幫助。

(3)当老师鼓励学生多吃白肉，顽皮学生又抬摃说肉類酸性，对身体无益。-------其實買股票要靠機緣，不要阿貓阿狗，你都說好， 免強是沒有幸福。你如果真正的喜歡一個人，你不會在乎他其它的缺點。但是他一定要有你一個人喜歡但是其他人都不知道的優點。

中国人叫这为没文化?

(1)当顽皮学生鼓励落榜老师閉關努力学习一门手艺。落榜老师还是抬摃说现今社会总偏幇识字份子，手艺已经不适合电子时代。落榜老师反而怪起顽皮学生只会鑽牛角尖从针孔看他要看的世界，其實，顽皮学生他不敢學習老師，喜歡放馬後炮，從來都不懂得就事論事，自己挑的股票，總是名落孫山，還需要迫不及待的沽清，老师不是說過要"宁愿错过，不愿买错"嗎? 但是，老师常常卻要，早知如此，何必當初?

(2)当老师鼓励学生用功读书，顽皮学生又抬摃说不一定用功读书才找得到吃，还搬出林梧桐李嘉诚为例子。 這句話就叫做牛頭不對馬嘴，但是老师自己不知道，買股票跟其他事情是兩碼事---学习一门手艺，用功读书，等等----沒有一樣是跟買股票有關係。

(3)当老师鼓励学生多吃白肉，顽皮学生又抬摃说肉類酸性，对身体无益。其實買股票


(4)当老师鼓励学生多吃蔬果，因为蔬果对健康有益。顽皮学生总会抬槓说蔬果的蛋白质不足支撑健康。----天下沒有白吃的晚餐------你應該教顽皮学生不要亂吃東西。

中国人叫这为没文化，你很俏皮，不知道你長得漂亮嗎?

不過，買股票:你只是需要"天時"就夠了 (Competitive Advantage)，你不是在打仗，因為買股票只要有"天時"買股票就自然會有"地利" (Brand Ｌｏｙａｌｔｙ)跟"人和"　（Ｃｕｓｔｏｍｅｒｓ）－－－雙贏。

老天造一個人不是這莫簡單第一件事情，謝謝你的指教 。不知道你長得漂亮嗎?
你有沒有電話，我想向你討教討教 。

"当时候johotin六月的业绩出炉，炼奶业务因细菌感染问题而必须做出大量的赔偿给顾客，因而盈利转盈为亏，在下个季度可能会做出更多的赔偿，再加上西非因伊波拉病毒肆虐可能使出口西非炼奶业务受到打击，所以冷眼当机立断，沽清了所有johotin的股份"。 是不是,你自己不是老是吹牛,你賣出股票是因為你當機立斷，都不是因為你買錯股票在先."宁愿错过，不愿买错"，這句話因該送還給你自己，你實際上從來都沒有介紹過好的股票，你只不過是一個會寫道理的投機分子.

"宁愿错过，不愿买错":是一個非常好的建議. 只是建議，而已嘛!，這樣還是沒有用，這只是你針對事情發生之後所講的一句話(宁愿错过，不愿买错)，把買股票當成對你來說一件很簡單的事情，你自己都
沒有辦法成功，所以你才在這裡寫東西放馬後炮，叫別人想信你，何必呢? 難道你不懂 "人和"的意識，天下人都會犯錯包括你自己. 你如過已經是股神，你才出來寫東西，不要拿筆的人，要去教拿鋤頭的人如何種菜. 你要叫別人包括你自己，不要把事情通通都想得太簡單.

非常好的建議!

For example, you can buy skpetro when the oil price hit $70, if you ever live to see this day!

(1) The first thing you need to know is that there is a God in this universe when you believe in yourself and realize that the God is always trying to help people: this is called gaining wisdom.
(2) After realizing your wisdom, you should act appropriately. The oil slide is an example of God trying to help its people. The oil price will not hit bottom but will stabilize at a new equilibrium, which is around half of the top ($100) plus bottom ($40), my guess is around $70 per barrel.
(3) Follow the trend and don't go against it. This is my opinion and please trade at your own risk and don't throw away your money recklessly by following market sentiment. From the dissapointed man's past mistake that he hope he doesn't repeat it again.

Ｉｆ　ｙｏｕ　ｌｏｏｋ　ａｔ　ｃａｓｈ　ｆｌｏｗ　ｓｔａｔｅｍｅｎｔ　ｏｆ　Ｓｅｐ　３１，２０１４，　２０１　ｍｉｌｌｉｎ　ｗａｓ　ｄｅｂｉｔ　ｔｏ　ｒｅｌａｔｅｄ　ｃｏｍｐａｎｙ．　Ｗｈｙ　ｓｈｏｕｌｄ　ｔｈｉｓ　ｒｅｆｉｎｅｒｙ　ｔａｋｅ　ｔｈｅ　ｌｏｓｓ　ｏｎ　ｂｅｈａｌｆ　ｏｆ　Ｓｈｅｌｌ　Ｇｌｏｂａｌ　ａｓ　ｗｅ　ｈａｖｅ　Ｍａｌａｙｓｉａｎ　ＥＰＦ，　ＫＷＡＰ，　Ａｍａｎａｒａｈ　Ｓａｌｅｍ　ｏｒ　ｗｈａｔ，　Ｍａｌａｙｓｉａｎ　ｍｏｎｅｙ　ｉｎｖｅｓｔｅｄ　ｉｎ　ｉｔ？　Ｔｈｉｓ　ｉｓ　ａｇａｉｎｓｔ　ｔｈｅ　Ｍａｌａｙｓｉａｎ　Ｌａｗ　ｏｆ　ｆａｉｒ　ｔｒａｄｅ　ｐｒａｃｔｉｃｅ．　Ｙｏｕ　ａｌｗａｙｓ　ｍａｋｅ　ｍｏｎｅｙ　ａｎｄ　ｙｏｕ　ｗｒｉｔｅ　ａｌｌ　ｙｏｕｒ　ｌｏｓｓｅｓ　ｆｏｒ　ｔｈｅ　Ｍａｌａｙｓｉａｎ　ｐｕｂｌｉｃ　ａｎｄ　ｇｏｖｅｒｎｍｅｎｔ　ｍｏｎｅｙ　ｔｏ　ｓｈｏｕｌｄｅｒ　ｏｒ　ｂｅａｒ　ｔｈｅ　ｂｌｕｎｔ　ｏｆ　ｙｏｕｒ　ｉｎｃｏｍｐｅｔｅｎｃｙ．　Ｉｔ　ｔｈｉｓ　ｌａｗｆｕｌ　ｏｒ　ｎｏｔ？

Ｉ　ｔｈｉｎｋ　ｔｈｅ　Ｍａｌａｙｓｉａｎ　Ｇｏｖｅｒｎｍｅｎｔ　ｓｈｏｕｌｄ　
ｓｔｅｐ　ｉｎ　ｂｅｃａｕｓｅ　ｔｈｉｓ　ｉｓ　ｇｅｔｔｉｎｇ　ｔｏｏ　ｍｕｃｈ．
Ｗｈｙ　ｓｈｏｕｌｄ　Ｓｈｅｌｌ　Ｇｌｏｂａｌ　ｂｅ　ｍａｋｉｎｇ　５．９　Ｂｉｌｌｉｏｎ　ＵＳ＄　ｉｎ　ｐｒｏｆｉｔ　ｉｎ　ｔｈｒｅｅ　ｍｏｎｔｈｓ　ｗｈｉｌｅ　ａｔ　ｔｈｅ　ｓａｍｅ　ｔｉｍｅ　ｉｔｓ　ｓｕｂｓｉｄｉａｒｙ　Ｓｈｅｌｌ　Ｒｅｆｉｎｅｒｙ　ｉｎ　Ｍａｌａｙｓｉａ　ｈａｓ　ｔｏ　ｔａｋｅ　ａ　ｌｏｓｓ　ｏｆ　ＲＭ１９９．８　ｍｉｌｌｉｏｎ？　Ｔｈｉｓ　ｉｓ　ａ　ｆｒａｕｄｕｌｅｎｔ　ｃｏｍｐａｎｙ　ａｔ　ｔｈｅ　ｓａｍｅ　ｔｉｍｅ．　Ｔｈｅｒｅ　ａｒｅ　ｓｍａｒｔ　ａｎｄ　ｗｅ　ａｒｅ　ｓｔｕｐｉｄ．　Ｔｈｅｒｅ　ｉｓ　ａ　ｆｒａｕｄ　ｔｈａｔ　ｍｕｓｔ　ｂｅ　ｃｏｒｒｅｃｔｅｄ　ｂｙ　ｔｈｅ　Ｍａｌａｙｓｉａｎ　Ｇｏｖｅｒｎｍｅｎｔ．

Dutch Company Shell Global thinks that Malaysians are very kind and enjoy being their benefactors. Whenever they have a loss, they debit it to the Shell Refinery in Malaysia. We are kind and they are smart, this is how the way I　ｓｅｅ　ｔｈｉｎｇｓ　ａｒｅ．

Hey, devil lives in hell, you better be prepared you are going there tomorrow because they already announced a hefty loss. Obtained this from The Edge Markets: " Shell Refining Company (Federation of Malaya) Bhd posted net loss of RM199.8 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2014, compared with net profit of RM42.9 million in the previous corresponding quarter. Revenue dropped 12.7% to RM3.44 billion, from RM3.94 billion a year ago. It posted loss per share of 66.59 sen, against earnings per share of 14.29 sen in the previous corresponding period. The petroleum refiner and manufacturer attributed the poor performance to stockholding losses of RM153.7 million".

Mr. Kensen, tq, you are so helpful. In a recession or forth coming recession, are there any opportunities that we can find on the stock market that can give us more than 25% in return in 3~4 years. What're they could you please tell me, I am already excited about this?
Like you say, CIMB may have a return of 25% gain in price appreciation for 3~4 years, and plus dividend ratio of 3% annual, we are looking at a gain of 34%~37%, on the total investment. Judging the share price of RM6.35 and gain at 34%~37%, it translates to RM2.30~RM2.35 per share for 3~4 years. If I were to buy 100 lots, the cost is RM635,000, I can make about RM230,000 to RM235,000 in 3~4 years, which translate into RM4896~RM6,388 per month. It is not such a bad deal to make 5 or 6 thousand riggit each month doing nothing at all.
Do you have a better deal than this one? Please let me know how it works?

This company made about 15.94 cents in the first half. Assuming that it will make the same amount or better in the second half, it will be able to make around 30 cents for the full year. At a price of RM$3.15 per share, it has a pe ratio of 10, it is not expensive at this level, there is no need to panic. I believe big holders are not sellers only the small holders are selling at this moment. Next time, you do short term trading, you can also check the results in the last 2 quarters and predict the full year result by assuming that the next two quarters will have the same or even better results. This is how you use the pe ratio before you do speculation. It is not the pe ratio or the historical chart is no use, in fact, you are not using them because you don't know how to use in the different way to help you.

This is call scare tactic. They push up the price too high at first, then they started selling to themselves like crazy to force people that are not so confident to sell in panic. I believe they will start collecting the shares again in the end. You wait and see. the price will not drop in the future because the current price is the lowest in the last few years and if nothing major bad news happen.

Ken, you are right, you are not contradicting, what you said on the forum are right. But the things you mentioned have already taken place, you merely stated what you now know from the facts but the share prices have reflected all that. For example, one stock dropped from 5 to 3 something because people already knew the effects of ending of QE and hence hike in interest rate, shale and sand oil impacts, no mutual view of the OPEC members and also may due to some political reasons. I wrote this email because I wanted to get your opinion about CIMB. Is it a good buy now?
You never made a guess before. Could you please be more futuristic using old information? You never make a guess and state your arguments. Could you say some good things about CIMB and the merger than will have some possibility of happening in the future? I want to buy some CIMB today. Hope you can help? For example, CIMB has a net profit of 4.609 billion last year while Bank Islam has 539.4 million. You have not speak positive things for CIMB. Could you please do it now?

Someone is supporting the share price of this stock, as long as, you don't lose money you can stay. If you want to exit, you should exit gracefully and not do anything in a panic. My suggestion for short term trading is (1) You need to wait for the stock to have 3 big drop in a row before you buy in. Especially, buy only after ground resistance (common support level) are already broken. Yesterday's drop was the second big drop (check the historical chart for 3 long black drop). (2) You must come up with a fundamental reason that there will be a rebound sometime in the future but you just don't know when. You must have a realistic reason other than the making money in order to buy a share because money just don't drop down from the sky. I check the annual report, in the short term, there is no risk. But in long term like 6 months later, I don't know.

Ya, natural gas consumption goes up in winter and petroleum consumption goes down during winter because of the reduced driving. I still don't know what you are trying to prove by telling me you are not contradicting. Which one are you talking about, the natural gas or the petroleum? You said energy but you did not mention which kind of energy again. Of course, opec needs money so they drop a little price to spur sales. Everything is very simple if you get the right facts. The hedge funds are not hard to understand, which ever way they do, they just want to make money for themselves. To support the market, they buy and sell at the same time, in the end, it is those who jump in the bandwagon that is supporting the price of the company shares.

Ken, ya you are right. You never state clearly or directly what you really mean on certain issue. Like what you previously wrote, on whether the winter is coming...My question is oil price go up or down on most winters? The next question is oil price go up or down on most summers? You made an optimistic remark that oil price might move upwards because " The order book is huge about RM26.5 billion & they have cluster of oil fields". But you again contradict yourself by saying winter is coming...A positive and negative remarks at the same time. You are very good at doing that. Of Course, we are all stupid we don't know what you mean. The price drop of crude oil is because the US currency is strengthing. The price up of SKPETRO today is because it has a Mahathir as a director in the company. Some funds sold shares, the EPF (invest for the people), but some funds still buy because of this reason, the fund is set up by the previous government and still helps the previous government, the AmanahRaya Trustees Berhad – Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera.

May be the debt is 80 billion, I may have made a mistake, you have to check the annual report yourself. But it is huge, that is why they sold their shares to governement funds in the first place to play safe when they anticipated oil price going to fall since last year.

Ya! This is a company that has 10 billion in debts, share capital of 5.9 billion. Net Asset per share of RM1.60/=. The oil slide in price just started in October, this can go on for the next two years, this is only the beginning of a slide. These days, we are not so dependent on oil, we have wind power, solar power, electric cars, led lighting, to cut down on energy usage. It will not be surprised to be if the oil will drop to RM$40 ~ RM$50 per barrel 5 years from now. I know the government funds held a lot of shares because the two former directors (one died) and the other cash out by selling his shares to the government funds last year. The two original founders the skpetro already pared down their shares since last year. This is not panic selling for them, they already anticipated the demise of oil price or this day to come. I don't want to say so much. This stock is for smart people to play and not me.

Shell Malaysia is a huge refinery. The recent price drop on crude petroleum should increase the profits of the company. In WSJ on Oct 14,2014, the newspaper reported that "Oil’s Price Drop Stands to Help Refiners."

It said "But BP’s and Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s refining operations—which have done so poorly in recent years that investors have pressured some companies to leave the business—now provide some insulation. That is because the downstream operations, which refine oil into gasoline and other products, become more profitable when the oil they use is cheaper. Prices of refined products such as gasoline typically don’t fall as quickly as those for crude."

For example, the newspaper listed that :" "For each dollar-per-barrel of improved profit margin for refined products, BP generates $500 million in extra pretax operating profit annually. In recent weeks, that refining margin was $5.70 a barrel higher than in the fourth quarter of last year, BP says.

Companies get “short-term support in downstream earnings” when oil prices fall, says Jason Kenney, an analyst with Banco Santander . "

What are companies that are not junks during recession:
(1) They have no debts so no recession can kill this company. LIke GUH.
(2) That have very talented and efficient management. Like HLID, MPI, and etc.
(3) They provides services that are indispensable (services always around). The banks or others.
(4) They provides products that are easy to manufacturer and that are indispensable, like drinking water and etc that are cheap to manufacturer.
(5) To become millionaire, you have to realize that you do not need to be very smart.
You just need to know to things: (1) what that is going to be always around and (2) What is cheap to produce therefore is easy to sell.
(6) Gook luck and seize the opportunity when you see one. tq guys for your opinions all these time.

Have no fear if you believe in yourself that you are able to judge for yourself so that you know what you are holding on for safe keeping are not "junks". God gave us recession in order for us to get rid of our junks, whether they are old clothing, lousy company shares, or our bad habits. I don't mind if God is giving us two years to get rid of junks (the bad companies). The good news is after two years, there will be fewer junks in the market, a lot of bad companies will bow out, then the stock market will really perform well. I am already looking towards for this year to happen. Like what my friend Christine said in her previous few emails: If some stocks are mistakenly treated also as junks that people want to get rid of, this is a good time to pick. One right shot and all of us can become millionaire overnight after 2 years. Ha!Ha!Ha!Ha! What do you think Christine? I wonder why they don't let CIMB price to fall to RM$4/= if they think this is a junk company?

Mr. Kensen, tq for sharing. You have made a series of good points, they are : (1)weak organic growth, (2)global weakness lasting at least 2 years,(3) low M&A activity, and (4) Fallacy of mergers and acquisitions. What is my opinion? There are quite good, you pointed out all the right problems that exist in reality. They all happen everyday. But I also have a solution to solve the problems but it contain two parts:
(1) CIMB has to understand itself first, it has to understand its strength and weakness. There have
to turn their weakness into strength. In the short term,they have to improve efficiency.
(2) The objective is to grow in size to increase competitiveness in the long term. But they haven't have the ability to show that they are able to cut down on cost. The method they need to do is to cut down cost. In other words, (1) think for yourself and (2) go help other people. They have to be able to cut down on cost (internally) so that they can help people (externally) later on.

The poor economic reality can only make them stronger. It is always useless to worry about the poor economy situations. Do something for yourself first and then try to do something that would also bring benefits to yourself for others. The last thing you don't need to do is to worry about a falling sky. As for Bank Islam, it has improves quite a lot in the past few years but I believe all the banks will need to merger to reduce the number of banks in Malaysia. This is a trend that must be done,whether you invest in CIMB or Bank Islam, it is the same. This is just my personal opinion.

Thank You Christine for Everything. I would not be coming to the forum very often in the future. Hope that you keep CIMB for as long as possible. That way I can come back here to look for you again. Good Luck With Everything. I have never met a person who have more knowledge than you have and it is not so important to me either whether you are expert or not. Investing in stocks is a passion for me and I believe it is also for you. Maybe we can be like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger someday. My wishful thinking.

Christine: I agree with you that "The main reason of ALL above company profit drop due to they acted not fast enough as other. The most company valuable thing is changes and challenge and create". You will need technology to implement faster actions and you will need money to implement changes and challenge and create." By pointing out what companies need to do, you are not simple! I want to remind every investors in CIMB that I know that the merger of CIMB and RHB carries risk and obstacles. But I don't care because we have Khazanah and EPF behind the deal. In my opinion, these two funds have talented and innovative people that they will be strong enough to solve any difficulties. We already have consumer weakness here in Malaysia and in other global economies, the point is everyone is facing the same problem. The world also will change a lot 10 years from now because we have a lot of difficulties in the next few years. The difficulties are forcing the companies to change that is why we have all the difficulties in our economy in Malaysia too. The two things that will help the world to change will be money and technology. Invest in what will help companies to change you will make money.

Christine, please write an email to me if you can. I want to buy 5016 tc warisan, the company sells Japanese products. The idea is Japanese yen is depreciating and it might be cheaper for tc warisan to import and sell the Japanese products in Malaysia. Do yo know anything about this company. As for Warren Buffett, how did you know all figures of his companies? I do not expect the market to perform well in the next few years so is Warren Buffett. As for the mishap of the companies:
(1) IBM sold semiconductor manufacturing plants to arab controlled global foundaries. This is old problem that happens since five years ago and they are taking a loss this year, this is what good companies do, admit your mistake as soon as you can. Short term loss.
(2) Tesco is a British retailer. Buffett bought the company because it sell fresh vegetables and organic foods. But the people are not ready for organic vegetables and foods which are traditionally more expensive. The mistake is caused by miscalculating people's preference.
(3) As for Hentz, I have no comment.

A true investor is not a person who never loses money because you can not control everything (like the God). The point is investing in banks and technology is the right thing to do for future benefits. Even Prominent fund manager Mark Mobius At his press conference later, Mobius said he liked consumer-related stocks such as British American Tobacco (M) Bhd, the beer breweries, and the banks which had been paying good dividends. I am keeping a close watch on these few counters and hope their prices would drop due to gst implementation.

The main problem we have in south-east-asian related or emerging economy related, our currencies might depreciate when the us fed raises interest rate. That is triggering the foreign selling. This is the main problem but it is not so serious if the us economy doesn't get too strong in the future, you know what I mean, this is not sure yet. We still do not know what is the extent of the hot money flowing out from the emergin economies and the best is to wait and see.

Even the world's most successful investor Warren Buffet is putting the most amount of his money in a bank called Wells Fargo. That is why I think banking stock is the best investment right now. The other major investment he made recently is on IBM (the technology sector). In my opinion, Invest in these two areas will be like investing like Warren Buffet.

From USA Today: Top 10 Warren Buffett Stock Pickings for 2014
(1) Wells Fargo
> Value of stake: $25.4 billion
> Total of outstanding: 8.9%
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) is Buffett's top stock holding, and it is the largest bank in America by market cap.
(2)Coca-Cola
> Value of stake: $16.9 billion
> Total of outstanding: 9.12%
Coca-Cola Co. (KO) recently announced transformative moves by taking large stakes in Monster Beverage and Keurig Green Mountain to enter more markets and to diversify away from sugar-water drinks.
(3) American Express
> Value of stake: $14.4 billion
> Total of outstanding: 14.49%
American Express Co. (AXP) has continued to benefit from increased card member spending, and its shares were up close to 50% in 2013, a key reason for Berkshire Hathaway to have such a large stake.
(4) IBM
> Value of stake: $12.7 billion
> Total of outstanding: 7.03%
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) marks a bit of a unique position for Buffett. After all, he shies away from technology. IBM was even among some of the top stocks being sold by mutual funds this year.

Anyone, this companies sell very diverse products---in cosmetics, heavy machinery, trucks, and car renting business. What is their primary or most profitable business that has the potential to grow in the future. I am interested in the cosmetics potential? How profitable is this sector for this company? I am not that interested in trucks and others.

Well, it is not hard to convince yourself. The two biggest funds invested in CIMB, Khazanah and EPF. How bad can it be? You ask yourself. Market sentiment is very bad now. The price drop to RM6.50 and stays here I believe primarily is because a lot of shareholders get free shares from the share dividends reinvesment program. If I am the guy who push up shares, I will wait at RM 6.50 for a while longer because the share dividends reinvesment program quote the shares at that time at around RM6.80 or what. There is no risk, just some necessary wait, is my opinion, believe it or not is up to you.