I cannot even put a commment on CPTEH blog to ask him a few questions for public to see because "the author need to approve the post" first. and he want to say that JCY counter is "manipulated". His own blog is manipulated. I have lost total respect for you cpteh,

I just saw CPTEH blog and he is saying JCY is "manipulated", "overvalued", "overstretched" and syndicates or manipulators playing with counter. But again no facts or evidence to support and even suggest SC should investigate. Are you being paid by OSK to write the blog or what? Again trying to cause fear and scare people.

Tell me what SC will investigate? that JCY doing so such good business since the flood and making so good profit and will contiune to make good profit for next 2 yrs?

If JCY is speculative like harvest where a loss making company counter can go from 20 sen to RM1.50 then I will agree with you for sure. But to say that a company that is experiencing the biggest business boom in its life time is overvalued,, over stretched, maunipulated is very very irresponsible and very very wrong from a person of your financial background. From reading your post I can only conclude that you are being paid by OSK. Everyone please read his post and see if you agree with me.

andy118: if cpteh think Iam tricking/con people , he can also come to this forum to explain to everyone why and we can have open discussion for everyone to see.

What makes me very angry is that I have legitimate source of information and I spend many hours researching and even talking to different people in industry and spend many hours posting here to share the information so everybody can share opportunity and some people want to accuse me of tricking/con people without any facts and explaination.

andy118: It ok to tell people to be careful but you have to explain why and give facts to support. you cannot come to forums and make general comment without explaining and without facts. this is why I ask Mancon to explain and give facts to support.

In fact, I want to invite any of the JCY critic, especially the people in the financial industry and any institution (Including OSK because I know you watching my comments very closely) to come here explain to everyone why my facts are wrong and we can have open discussion for the public to see and they can make judgement on who is correct.

Fat Cat Tim Buddy: it would help everyone understand better if people explain why they are negative or positive. that way people can understand better and make better decision.. generalisations and accusations without supporting facts are very dangerous and will make many people lose money.

charlie chia: Mancon is trying to say Iam trying to con/trick all of you. You all have the facts here and can do your own research to see if what Iam saying is bullshet. Also get a financial friend to check my information as well.

Mancon: Instead of posting something like this to scare people, why dont yhou tell me which part of my information is misleading and we can have an open transparent discussion for everyone to see. I know you are from OSK from the way you post, tying to scare people to cover the truth again.

TP for JCY is RM 4.0. See my comments under JCY before you listen to this guy who always give misleading and wrong information on forum.

tasoke: you are very welcome. public being tricked by some instituition for too long. Now good everyone can understand the truth.

Everybody who making money on this counter should give 1% to 2% of profit to good charity in thailand when the right time to cash out. We make money becuase JCY benefit so much from flood and flood affect so people in thailand. Lets give something back otherwise will not be very good for future prosperity.

more evidence to support the facts about JCY secure big increase sales volume for next 2 years and why HDD shortage will continue past 2012.

Read the below from Seagate CEO Steve Luczo:

-------------------------------------------------
"Seagate's relationships with its major customers have changed as a result. Luczo said: "Nearly all of our largest customers have entered into binding long-term agreements or LTAs to ensure continuity of their hard disk drive supply. Some of these LTAs extend for multiple years. ... "

"There is substantial and growing shortfall in unmet exabyte demand. We believe that the exabyte demand is growing at 40 per cent per year, while areal density growth is increasing at less than 25 per cent per year... We believe the industry will likely exit the calendar year with approximately 100 exabytes of unmet demand."

He reckons this equates to a 150 million unit shortfall for the calendar year. Well, that's nice, LTA agreements or lock-in-lite as we might think of it plus a benign pricing environment looks like business bliss.
-------------------

Seagate enter into Long term binding agreement to supply to its customers for multiple years means that it must also enter into long term agreement with JCY for multiple years to secure componenets to ensure it can meet its contractual obligation to its customers.

If the multiple year agreement is longer then 2 years, then it will make business sense for Seagate to takeover JCY. this is further support of the advice from my source about seagate takeover JCY.

Also note the comment about the shortage to contiunue past 2012.

The above information is from this article. please take some time to read the article carefaully because it will tell you alot about the future of JCY.

http://www.channelregister.co.uk/2012/02/01/seagate_q2_fy2012/

kuance: you will have to give me your email and I will contact you. If I post my email here I will be overloaded with questions from too many people.

yewkian: I will be suprised if JCY did not declare dividend since their profit so good.

Everyone also please ignore everything RHB research say. They already merge with OSK. both have same interest to see JCY share price go down. If you have a look at both their report, always say something negative to scare public. Sometime they will also release negative news article and both will give negative to make it look like they are seperate entity but actually is one party.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/1/12/business/10246738&sec=business

Do not be con. Please tell as many of your family and friends about my comments in this forum and give them link to this forum if they do not believe, get them to get a financial friend to read all me comments to see if Iam bullshet. There is alot of money to be made from this counter and its son and please share the opportunity with everyone. and the public need to know otheriwse will be con by big institituitions whio will make all the money from this.

kschai77i3: you want my prediction? The profit announce will even be more then the 150M guidance. What will happen to the share price? you can guess :)

Also OSK give low TP 1.48 got nothing to do with JCY but everything to do with when they start buying mother share to hedge against the son. Look at the OSK warrant information and you will see the son (or also called warrant) was issued in April 2011. The flood happen in October 2011. JCY share was on downward trend when they issue warrant in April and they think they can win the warrant and they did not know the flood will happen. Since they find out JCY will really benefit from flood, they already start buying mother share to hedge against son. whatever price they bought mother share at will be factored in when they give bullshet TP for JCY because they already do all their calculation and know that if they say TP 1.48 based on what ever price they collect the mother share at, they will not lose too much money on expiry.

Anyone worry about OSK throwing to press price down, please read my previous comment. for sure will not happen.

CIMB TP RM 1.54 also very low because they using PE ratio x6 not x 10. read their report carefully. JCY IPO was listed with PE ratio x 15. The only reason they do this is because they think JCY will only benefit for 2 quarters from when they release their report but I have already explained to you all why JCY will continue to benefit for next 2 years (24 months).

OSK give a low TP 1.48 to scare you all because they are the issuer of son and want price to stay under 1.48 so pay less on expiry of son . Anyone throwing this share now must be crazy. You are holding a unpolished diamond which is still being polished and when it it finished polishing will be worth more then you can dream (RM 4+).

Anyone having problem reading all my previous post, please use your iphone or Ipad.

Tasoke: The profit guidance say 1900% increase over q1fy11. It does not state 150m so you have to calculate. 1900% over Q1FY11 (7.5m) = (1900% X 7.5m + 7.5m) = 150m. You can also look at other report which also already calculate and also equal 150m. Eg read the news article on this page called " jcy 300m capex a positive move.

Handsome: I think we are the only one who know the real potential of jcy. But all the big boys will also know when q1 result is announced because they will also use the result to confirm fair value. Anyone not holding jcy better think twice, especially the one who bought at ipo and loss money. This is your chance To make money back and also eat profit. The big ship will sail away in next few days.

Handsome: Ian not even worried about son and will keep until expire. Son issuer must already hedge by buying mother share and can possibly throw to press price down. But Ian confident this will not happen for 2 reason, they already know about the real potential of mother. And jcy big man for sure will not allow price to be press down because affect his seagate valuation.

Handsome: I know it will be even better then my calculation. I collected at 1.15 already. Holding about 200k of mother and 30k son. Iam expecting 500k+ paper profit for both.

tasoke: I was not clear in my calculation earlier.it should be

Profit for Q1FY12 = 150m (from profit guidance)
(Capex 300m to increase production capacity by 40%)

Profit for Q2FY12 = 150m + 40% increase = 210m
Profit for Q3FY12 = 150m + 40% increase = 210m
Profit for Q4FY12 = 150m + 40% increase = 210m

Total profit for FY12 = 780M
- minus year 1 Capex 150m

Profit for FY12 = 630m.


The 300m capex was only approved when the profit guidance came out. This mean that JCY is achieving Q1FY12 profit of 150m without even spending the capex of 150m for FY12 (150m for fY13) yet- for new machines (CNCN machine take few months to build). This mean that the 40% increase in production capacity have not even started. So if you use 150m as a baseline and add 40% increase in production capacity for the next 3 quarter you will know what I mean. my source telling me they have secured big increase in sales volume from customers for next 2 years. if the next few quarter result going to be less then 150m,
why will they spend another 150m each year for next 2 years to increase production capacity by 40% when they can already achieve that without spending capex.

yewkhian: the takeover price for sure will be more then RM 1.60:

Profit for Q1FY12 = 150m (from profit guidance)
(Capex 300m to increase production capacity by 40%)


Profit for Q2FY12 = 150m x 40% = 210m
Profit for Q3FY12 = 150m x 40% = 210m
Profit for Q4FY12 = 150m x 40% = 210m

Total profit for FY12 = 780M
- minus year 1 Capex 150m

Profit for FY12 = 630m

630m / 2 billion shares.
EPS= 31.5 sen
PE ratio X 10 = RM 3.15 Fair Value

-----------------------------

JCY IPO price 2010
207m (FY09 profit result)

207m /2 billion shares
EPS= 10.35 sen
PE ratio x 15 = 1.55
Fair value = RM 1.55 (listing price)
----------------------------

JCY was listed in 2010 with PE x 15 based on 207m profit from 2009. If you use the same PE ratio now to work out fair price to compare with IPO price, it should be PE x 15.
That means JCY should be RM 4.7 fair price.

atom7nine: Notion share strong because they are taking advantange of JCY good news. Have a look at the historical price chart for notion and eng tek, both the share price for these 2 company gone up abit in Jan since JCY profit guidance news (ppl thinking they will both benefit like JCY but the next few quarter result for these 2 company will show both in trouble due to flood). Both notion and engtek looking for buyer now before things get worse for them. I already confirm with source, JCY not even looking at notion right now becuase JCY using capex to buying new machines only. Notion and eng tek are speculation counter and will continue to take advantage of JCY good news until the quarter result out and many people will run. If you think you can make make money from notion on the speculation, then you can buy but very risky now because the quarter result can come out anytime this month.

TP for JCY is very hard to say. The current price is still very very cheap. The fair value for JCY should be alot more right now (RM 2.00+) based on profit guidance. But some the big player are waiting for JCY to release quartely result to confirm profit guidance before they buy. In short term should have no problem touching RM2.00 after quarter result out this month. JCY big man for sure will not let son issuer press mother price down otherwise will affect his valuation for Seagate takeover. In medium term, should be RM 4.00+ when Seagate takeover. Do some research into JCY and seagate, if Seagate buy JCY, it mean they will control supply chain to their competitor WD, because JCY supply more then 40% of world market for HDD component. JCY is in very special situation because who ever HDD maker buy them out will control world HDD prices. This counter will make many people rich in next few weeks/months.


kongtl: Your stupidity will make alot of ppl lose their hard earned money on this forum. please do not post here again. even if everybody listen to you on this forum and buy notion, the share price will not move even .05 sen because the only people can make the share price move is the big player funds, bankers etc. I post here only to help the small player make some money back, especially the ones who bought JCY during IPO price
and lost alot of money. This will also be my last post as I do not have time to keep commenting. Good luck all.

atom7nine: my source tell me JCY have no intention to buy notion HDD at all. the only thing is Seagate talking to JCY big man and close to a deal.

kongtl: sorry but from reading your comments you do not have any understanding of the companies and the industry.

"JCY also small player"-

Please have a look at the link you posted yourself http://bursadummy.blogspot.com/search/label/Notion)
and under the NOtion article, have look at HDD Head to Head and compare the YOY revenue and profit. JCY YOY revenue/profit is 4 times more then eng tek and 8 times more then notion. for your reference JCY world market share for HDD component is about 40%. If you tell people JCY is small player they will be laughing at you.


"TYK Cap gets ENG & Advance Cap gets NOTION VTEC. TYK & AC are big winner at the end of the day"-

LOL, whoever buy eng tek and notion will be the big loser not winner. both companies are in serious trouble. If you do not believe me, wait for the quaterly results like i said.


"kongtl MORE INFO > http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/190233-tyk-makes-privatisation-offer-for-eng-teknologi-at-rm250.html"

This is old article from July 2011, 4 months before flood. They will be lucky if can find someone to even talk to them now about buying company.Dont be suprised if they running around desperately looking for buyers now. Will be lucky if can get someone to buy company for more then RM 1 per share now. If
I was TYK, I will wait a few more quarter until the company is really in big trouble and buy at fire sale price, under 50c is even possible.Eng tek share price will drop like a rock when the quarterly results are out.

atome7nine: Notion is too small a fish in HDD component making for JCY to even consider. somemore JCY already announced 80% of 300m capex will be used for buying more machine to increase production by up to 40%. why buy a smaller company with old machine when you can buy new machines.

life: every man on the street want to say they will also benefit from higher average selling price since JCY make profit guidance. If iam small HD component maker I will also say the same thing even though I may not benefit at all. Like I said just wait for the quarterly results for all these company to come out and see who will be caught with pants down.

btw: Increase in average selling price for HDD component producer is 10-20% only (from JCY profit guidance). The 50%-100% increase you are talking about is at retail level and have nothing to do with HDD component pricing at production level. If increase in average selling price is 50% to 100% at production level like you say, JCY should be worth RM20.00+ per share right now based on profit guidance.

MountKinabalu1: If you research about this industry and production process, you will understand why JCY competitors like notion are in big trouble and will be in trouble for a long time, maybe cannot even come back to market in time. you cannot clean up from flood for 2-3 month and continue production with same machines. This type of machinery cannot have any dust particle present and yet all the CNC machines under muddy flood water for weeks. All the CNC machine will be write off for sure. The insurance company will take few month to pay for the new machine and insurance company will only pay 50%
of the loss of the machines.Then it will take more then 3 month for the CNC machine supplier to build the new machines.
Then after the new CNC machines arrive, they have to go through a strict qualification process which will take a few more months.
by the time they can resume production, it will be about 12 months. most of the JCY competitor say they can start production again in feb, this is bullshet. Just watch the quarterly results for the next 3 quarters for JCY competitors like eng tek and notion to see if Iam right. eng tek and notion share price went up abit lately only because JCY announce profit guide and people think all HDD component maker will benefit like JCY but you cannot make money if you do not have CNC machine to produce component.Iam afraid you banker friend making big mistake with notion and will make bigger mistake if he throw JCY in feb.

MountKinabalu1: The loser and winner from the flood will be reveal when they all announce the quarterly result. Most JCY competitor will be making loss for long while, 3+ quarters. If holding notion or eng tek counter i will run now before Q1 result announce.

StephenLee: no joke. RM4 sound crazy but you can wait and see. my source tell me they have secure big increase in sale volume for next 2 yrs with all major customers. this is why so willing to spend CAPEX RM 300m over next 2 yr to expand and profit will grow every quarter for the next 18 month at least. Holland or not you can decide.

KimYapLau: Reliable source mean better then remiser.

seagate will takeover JCY in next few month. collect now before too late. takeover TP RM 4. this is from reliable source.