Osk may still have small ammo left because they been short selling as well from the way the share price behaving in last 2 days. The Hands shark meant to be start fight back from today according to source but there has been delay. I expect fight to start Monday. Rumour about Someone important dying is bullshet. Like I said just relax and be patient. It will happen.

Fat Cat: Have some faith :). Also the closing price on 27th does not matter because this is not the settlement price. The settlement price is the average closing price for next mon 20th, tues 21st, wed 22nd, thurs 23rd, fri 24th.

it should be a beautiful day for all mother son holder today.

bomblikeme: I think what you are talking about is the rumour that JCY will buy engtek. this rumour was suggested in the edge newspaper this week and JCY have made a announcement to bursa to say that it bullshet. check on the annoucenment section of this site and there is something called "others" dated 14/02.

Anyone have a baseball bat I can borrow?

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE VOLUME
20120214 1.350 1.360 1.250 1.260 34,235,900
20120213 1.420 1.430 1.350 1.350 13,431,300
20120210 1.420 1.430 1.400 1.420 16,840,400
20120209 1.420 1.430 1.330 1.410 32,105,700
20120208 1.470 1.500 1.310 1.410 39,717,000

TOTAL VOLUME= 136,330,300

OSK was holding about 70m to 80m JCY Mother share to Hedge against 80m warrants(son) they issued/sold.

OSK have now definately throw all their mother share (to pay for son on 27th Feb) and cannot affect price anymore. the storm is now over. It is now invisible hand's pet sharks turn
to play. Patience is a virtue for those who bought this share under my guidance. Sit, wait and watch. The price can only go up from here on.


And to those doomsayers, haters and non believers, Iam not going to come out cheering and celebrating when the price starts to really surge like you did when the price was being pressed by OSK. Iam not that low.

"In trying and testing times is when the true self comes out"

bomblikeme: there is more at stake here then the OSK warrant for the invisible hand. please read through my very early comments about what is going to happenin the near future and why invisible hand cannot allow OSK to press price down.

skycon: consipracy theories? I will forgive you because you sound like you have not been reading all my comments from start to end carefully. Those people do not undertand who the invisbile hand is, use your common sense and read
through my earlier previous comments. bomblikeme you seem understand my comments, maybe you might want to tell them because I certainly cannot be bothered. the level of
stupidity on this forum really amazes me and has wasted far too much of my time.

I dont care if anyone here want to buy or sell the share that is your choice, you make no difference to the share price so I do not benefit in anyway.

I came here to help the small players only. take the information as you will but do not undermine my intelligence.
Wait to see what price the share close on friday and you will know who has been bullshetting.

and no iam not part of the shark team, I just have very very good sources and spend alota time and money to research very well. I even fly down to thailand to see area around
JCY factory to conform factory not affected.

Bonecythe: No I do not read/follow your blog. I never follow any blog or report by anyone individual or institution because I do my own research.

looks like when I stop posting the people who do not know anything come out to post bullshet and post mislead info to cause more fear and uncertanty for people.

skycon and bonesythe or any other bullsheter here: If you think my facts about the invisible hand and his sharks are fairy tale imagaination. I am willing to bet with you 2 to 1. If I can tell you exactly what day this week the first shark will attack (price will jump with big volume), You pay me 50k, If iam wrong, I will pay you 100k.

Bonescythe: You told me not to mess with the shark and can get bad, iam telling you now it even worst more ugly to mess with billionaire with many pet sharks.

and no invisible hand and OSK have not negotiate a deal, that is why OSK are throwing.

petrocoat: There are more then 2 forces at play on this counter right now, you mentioned the Market and CW issue (OSK). There is 1 more very important force. That force is the invisbile hand. When I mentioned invisible hand in my earlier post, I was not refering to the market. The invisible hand is why the price has stablised as quickly as OSK tried to press it. Look at the share price graph for last Weds/Thurs when OSK started throwing, as soon as the throwing began, the invisible hand came to pull price up straight away. The invisible hand probably already anticipated this and hence is always on the ready each and every day until the CD expires. The invisible hand will not allow the legitimate share price to be abused and and molested in such a manner. The invisible hand is probably very pissed off now and has some very big, very agressive and very hungary sharks and will probally release these sharks into the sea to play with our OSK friends over the next 2 weeks :). In fact Iam so sure, you wont even have to wait until the CD expires let alone March. Get ready for 2 weeks of action packed fun. Congratulations to all mother and son holders in advance.

Jtpc: thank you. That's exactly how I feel and Iam very very tired. And I do not have the energy to come bac spend hours everyday to convince people. If you think Iam wrong please sell off your share and cd now. All the answers you are looking for are in my comments. That's why I ask you to save all my comments. The last thing I want to say to those who value the facts I presented is that current price is artificially pressed by osk but the invisible hand will always pull price back up. There will be bigger and more beautiful shows for you to watch very soon and you patience will be rewarded handsomely. Good luck all.

patrickngoa: correct. too many parties have their own interest and some being paid by the institutions to write report/article in a way which will mislead public so institution can make all the money at the public expense. Look at the blog by Alex Lu. He asking everyone to take profit now because from his "personal checking" the HDD shortage will be over in June. He also telling every to ignore JCY Q1FY1 earning of 162m because they cannot make this much again- yet JCY spending 300m over next 2 years (150m a year) to increase production by 40%.

He want to ignore this 162m Q1FY12 result and use last 4 worst quarters to work out value for JCY at 1.40 and he say JCY trading at PE x 18. If what he say is true, JCY will not even
be able to make enough to cover half the capex (150m) this year. What a joke. This must be the worst one I have read to date.

He information is all opinion based and no facts at all.

I have email him to ask him many question but he never write back to me.

Have a read of my comments under his article ( called "time to take profit") on this site. ( and 1 person actually agree with him- what a crazy world).

Arebear: more logic and technically correct?? You must be kidding me. Do your charts factor in natural disasters with multiple flow on effects and artificial price manipulation by osk in the last 2 days? Moreover this article has been written with more opinion then facts.

Usry Bin Abdullah:

Based on PE x 10 they are saying JCY will only make 265m for FY12 ( 265m/ 2 billion shares = EPS 13.3sen, PE x10 = 1.33).
JCY already made 162m for Q1FY12 so they are saying that for the remaing 3 quarters, JCY will only make 34m in each quarter.
Yet JCY already announced they will be spending capex 300m over next 2 years (150m per year) to increase production by 40%. JCY can already achieve 162m without increasing output by 40%. Therefore their calculation makes no sense.

Very misleading and wrong indeed and even the Q1FY12 profit for JCY quoted in the forecast is wrong. JCY made 162.5m for Q1FY12 and not 164.9m as they quoted.

Alex Lu -Your whole article is completely wrong and you have no understanding of the company and the industry at all. Please do some proper research before writing about something you know nothing about.

Please see below.


"From my personal checking, the supply in the HDD sector should be normalized by June this year"

Can you please state which sources you checked with? Because the CEO of Seagate has already stated the shortage will extend past
2012.

see below:


Seagate CEO Steve Luczo:

Luczo believes the HDD industry is not meeting capacity demand: "There is substantial and growing shortfall in unmet exabyte demand. We believe that the exabyte demand is growing at 40 per cent per year, while areal density growth is increasing at less than 25 per cent per year... We believe the industry will likely exit the calendar year with approximately 100 exabytes of unmet demand."

He reckons this equates to a 150 million unit shortfall for the calendar year.

SOURCE http://www.channelregister.co.uk/2012/02/01/seagate_q2_fy2012/



"We should avoid using the abnormal EPS for the latest quarter to compute the PE ratio as this level of earning will soon subside"

Which school of business did you graduate from? We should ignore the Q1FY12 earnings becuase the level of earnings will subside? on what basis did you come to that conclusion. JCY is spending capex 300 million over next 2 years to expand to increase production by 40%. If they have not secured the extra business why spend the capex to expand to increase the production by 40% over 2 years?

Do you know why their competitors will not come back until at least Dec? How many CNC machine makers are there around the world? Do you even know what a CNC machine is? how long it takes to build the machine? test it and ship it? DO you know how long qualifaication for a factory takes? Obviously not.


"JCY is trading at PE ratio of 18 times" so lets ignore the best quarter JCY has had to date and take the worst 4 quarters and say JCY is trading at PE 18 times. very misleading indeed.

People please do not be mislead by this article which is completely wrong.

Kclee: Iam out right now and very hard to reply to you on iPhone. I will reply to you later tonight.

Adam Ryan; I have already provided my valuation here for everyone to see. If you think over 2 is overvalue please provide valuation with explanation so people can understand.

Bonecythe: not sure what you are asking? Can you rephrase so I can understand better?

When I say medium TP RM 4, Iam being very conservative and expect it to go over RM 4.

CIMB are still being very conservative using PE x 6 for short term. A reasonable PE should be x 10. JCY was listed with PE x 15. In medium term (3-6 months) JCY will reach RM 4. trust me.

Once OSK throw all their mother share, the price will rocket to the moon. collect more now because still very very cheap, once OSK use up all their mother share, you will not get a chance to buy at this low price again.

On my calculation they have throw about 30m mother shares yesterday and this morning combined and will throw more this afternoon. They probaly still holding about 40m. Use this opportunity to wack more. You will not regret.

Fat cat: yes they are. There is no other reason for this share to be going down right now.

Rosma mk: correct. if you see sudden price dip again..wack as much as you can before other big boys take it all. it will go back up very quickly so you have to be very quick.

Bonescythe: there are more then one big shark out there. All other big sharks can smell the opportunity and this share will reach rm 4 in medium term because that's it's true value not just because I want it to reach rm 4.

Fat cat: and rightly it should, jcy is the second biggest world hdd component maker with world market share of approx 40%. Not many people understand the size and scale of the company and how this has changed the whole hdd landscape to their advantage for the long term as per their quarterly report.

OSK probably holding about 70m mother shares (they have to hedge against son -1 for 1 to pay for son on expiry). there are about 500m shares on the open market with the reminder in the hands of the JCY big man (75%)

OSK must be deciding now what they want to do with the the mother shares they are holding since the expiry date getting close. they have the following options:

A) sell off the mother share and pay for the son on expiry (depending on what price they bougth the mother share at- they could be making a small profit, break even or make a loss. If they bought mother share when it was below .80 sen then they can make a profit. If they collected mother share above .90 sen, they will lose money. The problem with doing this is that there is potential for them to lose even more money, ie they sell all the mother share under RM 2.00 and in 3 months the mother goes to RM 4.00- they lost the opportunity to make another 100% profit.

B) Use the mother share to spook the market like today and collect back cheaper and use the profits to pay for some of the son on expiry.

C) Use Cash to pay for all the son and keep all mother share and collect even more given todays profit announcement and the psositive outlook for the company for next 2 years.

My guess is that they will be doing a combination of all the above and we will see more price volatility for next week or 2 but like I said, do not panic because other big players know this and they are standing by waiting to collect when they throw. the price may fall very quickly when they do this but it will also always go back up very quickly as well. Hence son holders do not need to worry also.

note the mention about the 2 china factory expansions and increasing output in the near future. This supports what I said about JCY making 162m Q1FY12 without increasing output yet, which means for sure they will be making more then 162m in next few quarters.

from the Quarterly Report:

VARIANCE FROM PROFIT GUIDANCE
The Thailand floods in October 2011 have significantly changed the landscape of the HDD industry supply chain. Many HDD component suppliers are still struggling to resume their production outputs to meet the demand for the HDD components. Based on the HDD industry reports by independent industry consultants and vendors, it appears that the worldwide shortages in HDD will continue in year 2012.

However HDD vendors like Western Digital Corporation and Seagate Technology PLC have resumed their production faster than industry expectations.
Increases in the Average Selling Price (â??ASP") of HDD components resulting from the Thailand floods should continue to benefit JCY in the next 12 months. With JCYâ??s multi-product strategy and effective management of product mix will enable us to focus our production on the higher demand and higher yield components. Our emphasis on productivity improvement will continue to contribute to improved profitability. We expect to be able to meet the increased demand for HDD components. JCYâ??s Thailand
factories were not affected by the October 2011 floods. In addition, with both our new plants in China (Suzhou and Foshan) ready soon for our planned expansion, we expect to be able to increase our output in the near future. On 4 January 2012, the Group issued a Profit Guidance that the Group was likely to record an increase in
net profit for the financial quarter ended 31 December 2011 of approximately 1,900% compared with the corresponding period in the previous financial year (period ended 31 December 2010, Net profit: RM7.5million) or 460% compared with the immediate preceding quarter (period ended 30 September 2011, Net profit: RM26.4million).
The net profit for the financial quarter ended 31 December 2011 is reported as RM162.5 million, which is 8.3% more favorable than RM150 million implied in the Profit Guidance.

JCY Valuation-

Q1FY12 = 162m profit
Capex = 150m

Q2FY12 = 162m + 40% increase production (New machines from capex) = 226.8m
Q3FY12 = 162m + 40% increase production (New machines from capex) = 226.8m
Q4FY12 = 162m + 40% increase production (New machines from capex) = 226.8m

- 150m (capex)

FY12 Profit = 692.4m

692.4m /2 billion shares.
EPS =.35 sen

PE X 10
Fair Price= RM 3.5

PE x 15
Fair Price= RM 5.1

JCY IPO price was RM 1.6 using PE x 15 based on FY2009 profit of 203m.


--------

TP RM 1.50?? you must be kidding. TP 1.50 mean JCY will only be making 15m each quarter for the next 3 quarters. On the back of a severe HDD shortage which will go beyound 2012 as also confirmed by Seagate CEO, higher average selling prices and secure sales volume for next 2 years. No way.

How high do I want to see JYC go? anywhere between RM 3.5 and RM 5.00. Its only matter of time.

Bonescythe: if you are saying TP 1.50 is maxinum, can you explain to everyone how you came to that conclusion. keeping in mind Q1FY12 announced today is 162m for.

Looks like they are also declaring dividends of 2 sen per share.

Looks like JCY Q1 results out!

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/index.jsp

JCY reported 162M. profit for Q1FY12.

You panic they collect back cheaper from you. Big player will take what they throw so don't panic.

Osk cashing out abit. Do not panic.

Kclee: explain more pls with facts and evidence. How is this counter a get rich scheme?

Jtpc: yes still very undervalued and still got long way to climb. Read my comments in jcy page.

Patrickngoa: medium term tp rm4 no problem one.

CPTEH: Even after my comments about this blog, you still have not removed/updated the entry. So you are going to leave it there to mislead more people. be a responsible person and remove it or update it with facts/evidence. Otherwise If this is the kind of teachings that your are instilling into the next generation of traders, people would be very very worried indeed.

moreover, these are some very serious accusations and allegations you have made against their company without facts and supporting evidence. Think about what you are doing for one minute, because Iam sure you would not appreciate it if someone made false and misleading accusations against your personal trading business etc without any facts or evidence.

If you have a problem with the information I have provided in forum re JCY, then by all means blog about it and explain to the public with FACTS and EVIDENCE. please do not make false accusations and allegations because you are not able to refute the the information. You may be able to mislead the minority who are financially illiterate but many will see through what you are trying to do.

CPTEH: I have no problem with the way you trade, thats none of my business because we all make bad decisions from time to time. but when you deliberately publish something to incite panic in people without facts and figures, thats as bad bad as defrauding the public. You claim the counter is : "manipulated", "overvalued", "overstretched". Please explain to everyone using facts and supporting evidence how you came to this conclusion. Blog or article, makes no difference, the information is absolutely and utterly misleading and false.

dknycom: thats right, I put my money where my mouth is. anyway I have wasted enough of my time debating with you. you can do what you like, its none of my business. but do not go around and comment on something you know nothing about and give misleading information to people without facts and evidence. good luck.

Mohamad Sukri: JCY is the second biggest world HDD componenet supplier. It will be at least 2 years benefit for JCY. you can read my comments under JCY and you will know why.

You cannot even put your money on what you saying, how can anyone believe what you saying. I already hold 200k of JCY my friend. and dont call me silly because Iam alot smarter then many people here. Please use facts and evidence to argue with me and not opinion becuase everyone got opinion right or wrong is another story.

dknycom: you are wrong. JCY is a HDD component maker. not a hDD maker. Do you know how much world market share they have in supplying component worldwide?

dknycom: I will bet with you 2 to 1. If JCY do not go up to 4 RM in medium term by Aug 2012 I will pay you RM 20K. if it does you just pay me 10K.

anyone want to give misleading negative information about JCY, what do you know about the company, the industry, the supply chain, the HDD makers, the thailand floods, the competitors, the world HDD shortage? Nothing. so what gives you the right to make a comment/write a blog on something you know nothing about.

dknycom: be a man and go into the main JCY comments and present your facts and explaination why JCY will end soon. JCY will go past RM4.0 in medium term see my comments under JCY to understand why.

very misleading article with no facts or truths and only using misleading information to create fear to scare people. see the main comments under JCY and you will understand why.

CPTEH, I can not sit and watch you get away with what you are doing and people have to learn to take responsibilty for what they say online especially a teacher like you. I have email JCY with a image/content of your blog post on JCY. You have made some serious accusations against the share of their company. Iam sure the JCY legal team will be speaking to you soon.

Talk2pkc: people can be stimulate by many thing other then social media and forum, like email, tv, newspaper, letter, and even advice from your neighbor, just because it is social media doesnt make it more wrong or more right, the only thing that matters is the facts and the supporting evidence. so far the people who criticise JCY cannot provide any fact or evidence to support their statement and use fear to scare people. The reason why they cannot provide any fact and evidence is because you cannot argue against the truth.

you can see I I already make invitation for anyone including insitituition to come to this forum to explain why the facts I have provided are not correct so the public can see. no critic will come here because I have the truth and the facts on my side . how can you argue against the facts and the truth?


Btw: everyone please start saving the information I have posted here because all the people keep commenting wiill soon lose all my older comments because this forum only keep maximum 300 comments and everyday it delete old post.

Fat cat Tim buddy: people can throw if they like, that is there
Free will. I already provided the facts here and the public will decide.