@activetrader, I think Jose screener miscalculated. It should be around 13.5 EPS instead of 27. 27 is pre BI.

I believe there is still a major uncertainty ahead which hinders the return of FF, that is whether the parliament will pass 2021 budget.

the finance minister already mentioned that next year a robust rebound in economy is expected. with that the tax revenue will also increase, and no windfall tax will be required by then.

@Foker, this 1.15bil is only considered liability under accounting because it's deposits from customers. However, in reality it belongs to SPMX because those deposits are non-refundable unless SPMX is unable to delivery the goods.

@karimbokoss, do you really think KYY could control spmx's share price? Dayang, Jaks maybe la, but SPMX wo.. daily trading value >200M,300M wo.. really can meh?

Stock market is a voting machine in short term. some special events going on may affect the sentiment for a while. So just wait for a little while (maybe not too long), it will reflect its true value. An extremely powerful spring can't be compressed for long.

Why is everyone so certainthat there's a windfall tax, while the headline only states government 'may' unveil windfall tax. And it's coming from Maybank IB, not a confirmed policy. Did I miss something?

@FTS sifu,
I believe the key depressing factors would be 1) Malaysian Budget 2) Still many scared of Windfall tax.
1) FF will only return if budget is passed. They scared if cannot pass, Malaysia's economy will be in deep shit so they pulled out for now and watch the show. However, chances of not passing is very slim, outlook of economy during COVID is dim, I believe no politician be them ruling or opposition would block budget ultimately as it would send our economy to hell and end their political life for those who're blocking.
2) Although we know that chances of windfall tax is very very slim, but still many investors are skeptical, they would not believe until government says no, there will be no such tax.

So, in conclusion things will only get better next week or after budget is finally passed.

The thing is, you can't get FDA certification overnight.

anyone knows if there is an upcoming investor briefing for Supermax?

Market is very funny and unpredictable. I believe no one can explain why Harta still valued at PE60 post QR compared to Spmx PE20 post QR.

@singor Actually from which statement of Harta's indicating glove consumption has peaked? It only says the demand is expected to outstrip supply in coming years. Don't mislead the public

Harta is no doubt generating tonnes of money and performed very well, but unfortunately, it seemed that the share price already factored in such results already, and possibly already overvaluing it.

@nononsense, I believe beyondmask page states out of stock is because it is not up for sale yet. still pre order that's why no inventory.

If Supermax is able to deliver 1B this coming QR, It will be able to achieve 2B next following QR. Reason being July-Sep Sales will not fully factor in current ASP, as they still need to clear backlog sales from Apr-June with lower ASP. I believe only until Q3 or Q4 FY21 will report current ASP level. Bear in mind the delivery lead time has extended to 12 months already.
Till then, simple calculation:
Assuming blended ASP USD130,
cost/box = USD30,
production capacity 6.1M box
(130-30)*6.1M*4.15-24%tax = RM 1.9B = RM0.70 EPS

@Sifu FTS, thanks much for the explanation.

@Sifu FTS, how much could Supermax earn from Beyondmask? I thought it's kind of like a collaboration with many other parties like the 3D printing companies. The margin is shared right?

My ultimate target price by another 4 more qtrs.

@sifu FTS. Yeah ex bonus RM35. Possible?

@Sifu FTS, see you at RM35.

Does anyone know when will SPM release next investor briefing presentation?

@sifu FTS, in case of MCO in Klang, do u think it would affect the output of gloves for at least 1 month?

@Morpheus61, there's one good way to defeat the IBs. When you already know the value of the company, then buy its shares, keep and wait longer than the IBs. Sell when you think the value is fully priced in. That's the only good way. even if there's no CW, definitely there are still people who will be losing money in share market.

Go by fundamental, it won't go wrong.

Obviously the IB has an ill intent when comparing gloves to IC packaging. Summore comparing to 1999/2000 period. What a serious flaw. For gloves, the big 4 becomes stronger after each pandemic, and this time the pandemic is unprecedented.

I strongly believe in Freetospeak sifu's analysis. The IB is using IC packaging's history to project the trend of Gloves, especially Topglove. I think the comparison is seriously flawed as both are totally different industries and the need for gloves are not going down anytime soon, even with the launch of Vaccines.

@hng33, no. of shipment during a specific timeframe is only and indicator. It does not represent the absolute sales result in a market.

Another great insightful content from Sifu Freetospeak and CIA Team, Thank you very much for sharing!

Supermax is either seriously undervalued if compared to its peers or its peers is seriously overvalued.

Example by using current share price vs latest QR:
Kossan forward PE = 15.4/(0.1025x4)=37.56
Harta forward PE = 16.86/(0.0649x4)=64.85

What should be Supermax's share price if it were to use PE above,
compared to Kossan, it should be: (0.3058x4)x 37.56 = 45.95
compared to Harta, it should be: (0.3058x4)x 64.85 = 79.33

The gap between Supermax's PE with Harta and Kossan will be even wider if it gives another bombastic QR which is almost certain.
So is Kossan and Harta overpriced? Harta boss still actively acquiring his own company's shares. The message is very clear already.

There could be many invisible hands behind that manipulate all these. But I believe, the harder you press a spring, the higher it jumps when you released it.

Very weird phenomenon in glove counters valuation.
Supermax is either seriously undervalued if compared to its peers or its peers is seriously overvalued.

Example by using current share price vs latest QR:
Kossan forward PE = 15.4/(0.1025x4)=37.56
Harta forward PE = 16.86/(0.0649x4)=64.85

If Supermax's share price were to use the PE above,
compared to Kossan, it should be: (0.3058x4)x 37.56 = 45.95
compared to Harta, it should be: (0.3058x4)x 64.85 = 79.33

The gap between Supermax's PE with Harta and Kossan will be even wider if it gives another bombastic QR which is almost certain.
So is Kossan and Harta overpriced? Harta boss still actively acquiring his own company's shares. The message is very clear already.

There could be many invisible hands behind that manipulate all these. But I believe, the harder you press a spring, the higher it jumps when you released it.

Anyone knows how to sell odd lots for 45:1 bonus share?

Great Article Sifus, thank you for sharing insights substantiated with solid data.

Hi @ytthis, please add me into the group please. thank you.

@ytthis, please add me in. Thanks.

@rr88 I wonder why you only look at the chart but forgo the fundamentals of the company completely.

Freetospeak sifu, thank you very much for your informative insights. Always supported by facts and free to view by public. You are such a kind person.
Thanks.

@teamrocket, if what you said is true, then why the ASP is still hiking, and why is the order books still expanding?

It is flawed to assume 20% increase in ASP only resulted in 20% EPS increase.

May I know if this analyst briefing was held on 9th Aug? The results was released on 10th Aug. Is it considered showing the analysts the qtr results before the public?

So many rumors, you people really have nothing better to do?

Thanks Elbrutus, in Jaks group your comments led me to read about Freetospeak Sifu's past comments which helped me to regain my loss in O&G and Jaks, Now even seeing a substantial gain in my overall portfolio. Thanks!

Let's all screenshot the comments of Teamrocket, if the amount he claimed to be audited report of Supermax des not match. We should all make police report on his evil intent. He'll need to pay the price for intentionally spreading fake news for personal gain.

my portfolio had bottomed due to oil crash. Thanks sifu Freetospeak's insight that lifted me back to the peak of my portfolio.

@Amukutty Don't be so naive. This is totally a supply and demand economics, nobody would be that stupid to sell cheap as supply is that tight. Remember, if you sell cheap, the re-tailers are going raise their margin to match market price, and take all that margin, ultimately consumers would still need to pay high price.

Anyone knows out of the Aurelia series of gloves produced by Supermax, which is the most popular and best seller? Bold? Robust or Quest?

Lanesra, please support your sell call with valid reasons, if you think it's overprice, then tell us why would you think so. Not just call out to sell, which made people feel like you are just trying hard to collect cheap. That is not what a real sifu should do. Your exit price is 9.8, means you did not foresee its full potential then.

Freetospeak gives insightful views and yet being every humble. Lanesra only asked to sell without giving solid evidence of overprice, addressed himself as sifu. From here we can see who's the real sifu.

Hi anyone care to explain why the premium gap is so high between CW? Why is VIMb issued CW tends to be lower premium %? Thanks.

CCCL, 3M business is extremely diverse, total sales drop by 20% does not mean N95 mask sales is not growing. And N95 masks market is considerably smaller/ negligible to that of gloves.

Antifakeguru, because the posting is only for paid subscriber I think.