Just trying to learn here.

Early July to early October 2018 (QR3):
Crack spread for MOGAS 92 around USD 6.00 (guesstimate from chart). average Brent crude USD75 (QR3).


Early October 2018 (for QR4)
Crack spread for MOGAS 92 sharp down since October 2018. Looks like average USD2 to 3 if kept low. Average Brent crude price looks to be USD6x if maintain.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/singapore-mogas-92-unleaded-platts-brent-crack-spread-swap-futures.html


So, QR4 in February 2019 should reflect the effects of the both stockholding loss and lower margin on low crack spread. Lower EPS is expected. Hopefully no loss on refinery side. While retail should help to make profit remain positive?

There is still some warrants around by Maybank and Macquarie, trying to goreng?

@ Jaya, I think this is the nature of refinery business.
Higher revenue because of higher crude oil price, In a way they are just processing the crude oil and make profit out of the value added process (Buy high sell high).

Profit drop not because of lower operating efficiency, but a matter of lower crack spread due to volatility in crude oil price.


Q. I wonder what is the different between "Other Operating Income" and "Other Income".
Is:
"Other Operating Income" (Reduce 11% compare 2017) = Refinery profit from processing crude oil?
"Other Income" (Increase 110% compare 2017) = Retail Petrol Station profit?

1. Higher revenue but lower profit due to crude oil price hike (compressed crack spread) and relatively flat sales volume.
2. Higher average crude oil price ($52 last year, $75 this year).
3. Volatile crude oil price this year (crack spread messy), better if crude oil price is stable.
4. Looks to make more than EPS 100cents this year, with PE7 or less.
5. How is this compare to other refinery in other parts of the world could be the better way to benchmark.

Just wondering, seems like EPF is selling not only Astro but many other counters too. Are they preparing for winter session (potential market drop)?

Is there source that we can view how much EPF still has in Astro up to a week accuracy? Thanks in advance!!

Here we retailers (ikan bilis) have our own views, some think is good to enter while others fear. Nothing wrong to have differing views.

But hor, compare to the big funds and smart money, are they are better at managing funds or us?

If really loss hope in the business, it will drop all the way until the value emerge. So the fact is the value has emerge yesterday, that's why the price ended up higher than early in the day.

What do you think?

Quarter result will have been released when the dividend is ex-dated.

Malton is pleased to announce that we would received 2.0 sens of dividend, ex-date on 28 Nov 2018.

The AGM will be held at 9.00am, 23 Nov 2018 at Tropicana Golf & Country Resort.

Appreciate the response, @ Uptrending

Wait patiently, 10 years from now would have a chance to sell at RM1.00.

WCT has share buy back by company, just wonder why there isn't any here?

By the way, you have to walk in to specific location to make subscription change, and only during weekdays/working day. This is not customer-oriented services. You have to check which center to go before you visit a center or you might waste your time.

Agree with Hollandking.

The basics of business is to retain your customer by satisfying their needs.
Their business was almost monopoly until recent intervention by new government, but their service attitude today has not changed.

They are not proactive to provide solutions to customers. With the new policy of lower price point to internet access, TM is providing higher speed for existing customers while maintaining the same price instead of offering options to customers to choose between speed or price.

Do you think the customers appreciate a boost from 30MB to 500MB speed? Most simply don't need the speed so would it be better to provide options for the customers to choose themselves. The process to change the subscription is also made difficult as customers must walk in to perform change, which cannot be done over the phone. A change in the package also renew the contract for another 2 years.

This is not retaining customers but I see it as a way to irritate them to walk away after their contract is completed.

We have to see how TM's revenue portion on the consumer will change over the next 2 years. Will there be a huge decrease in customer base?

What do you think?

Unlikely to happen due to track record.
If 20 cents then dividend yield will be 10%. What will you do if 20 cents?

@Cindybull TP RM5

What's your expected timeline to reach the target?

That boy probably eats other unhealthy food that are convenient too, so it's not really conclusive. Many other reason too, will you eat same things everyday when you can choose on healthier options? What do you think?

@uptrending

Thanks for compiling the company buy in records. Makes it easy to see.

@ Slimy,

Haha, different things every year. Well I guess if they continue to chunk out good profit via good management and operation then should be fine long term. Have dividend policy some more.

Don't know how to see the relationship between buy and sell volume but someone is catching the stocks from throwing further down, quite a substantial volume (compare to typical day) got throw to buyers at 5.00, 5.01 and 5.02. Does that mean lots of people are losing interest in this?

14 Sep 2018
Total Volume 14,357 (Lots / 100 Units)
Total Value 7.20Mil

Price BVol SVol Total Vol Total Value (Approximate)
5.00 1,738 0 1,738 869,000
5.01 8,090 608 8,698 4,360,000
5.02 1,001 2,014 3,015 1,510,000
5.03 185 13 198 99,594
5.04 325 180 505 254,520
5.05 52 141 193 97,465
5.06 10 0 10 5,060

@1910982335855168
Haha, sorry not you la.. I'm replying to you that dividend is usually June.

But I am talking about some other accounts that keeps repeating the same comments all over the places.

"Waiting for dividen soon. This time can cover back some capital loss. Not bad."

Just notice they always copy and paste in other threads too. So it can be misleading at times.

Cheers.

I see that LCTITAN clarify the news, but they did not say the arrest is not correct. Only the plant progress is not affected.

Is the drop of share price reflecting the loss of Lotte Brand equity and the confidence in the management of Lotte group (Not LCTITAN itself but association to the group).

If create liquidity and cyclical steel stock plunges, it might be hard to manage the stocks.

I personally prefer no bonus issue, save money from unecessary corporate exercise. It is not like it create value for either us or company. Nor that Annjoo is price like 17.80 a piece.

Dividend always at the same time around June. If you notice there are a few 'robots' or bots around here and there spouting about the same things...

Like that one above

Is Lctitan' business consider as cyclical business?

If so, what is the indicators that we can reference as the upside or downturn? What would you look at:

- Product price trend (compare Highest and Lowest in history),
- Demand (is the trend gaining or losing),
- Economic condition of buyer market (plastic is the indicator of wealth, high demand can be substantiate by financial capability)
- Competitor analysis (who is doing something similar and do they have similar trends in earnings?


Thanks.

Just sharing, this is just a brief talk with some of it's project managers.

The take from the conversation was that the operation within was very inefficient. Most staffs are non-contributing and did not do their jobs well (even the most basic ones). It was not an easy task to motivate or get rid of them. The ratio (speculated) of bad staff was almost half, but most are in the low levels. TM need to clear up from within before the company can be consider competitive if that is true.

Roger, what's your crystal ball showing for next week, below 0.31?

roger3210

Interesting, what's your average price?

It seems you know something, what do you think of the earnings and price will be by the end of August 2018?

I read from Cold Eye book that Bonus share is essentially split, and so it does not change the public shareholding spread.

Maybe that's why they are extending the date for this exercise.

Don't know about the possible corporate exercise that can be done.

Agree, price is not going up yet but value is there.

Annual Company Growth
= (Annual EPS - Dividend) / (Total Equity + Debt) or NTA
= (13.86 + 10.74 + 16.64 + 10.42 - 23.00) / (508)
= 5.64%/Year

Dividend Yield
= 23/527
= 4.36%
On par with FD rate

Opinion Only*
Let's see if Lctitan will continue the annual EPS consistently. It may not be high growth but if consistent over long period it could be a Blue Chip quality. If growth cannot be achieve (company don't know what to do with extra cash), then perhaps higher dividend like Digi and BAT. Maintenance and upgrade of plant will need lots of money though.

Still too early to say.

25% minimum Public shareholding. Treasury shares are excluded.

They have to sell or absorb as treasury share if somehow they cannot sell it?

Petronm-Cm won't have any value unless Petronm is worth 14.56 or more. Then it would worth 0.005 sens.

Learn your lesson and move on.

@ Ben Ong

Lower crude price (but steady with low fluctuation) is better for refinery.

Think of crude oil to refinery as wood to furniture makers. The cheaper the raw materials, the lower cost to your final product and in this case as a regulated product, lower price means potentially higher demand (airline becomes cheaper to operate and attracts more patrons) and lower inventory holding leading to better cash flow.

It makes sense if daily oil price change affects the profit, won't it makes more sense that pricing is based on negotiated price between the stakeholders?
So why take daily oil price change so seriously?

Even with 25% or 50% reduction in fees, I believe TM will find ways to ensure profitability. The government is not going to kill the company and reduce their tax contribution, jobs for thousands and the main provider of internet service to commercial and domestic users.

The thing is, I believe this will shock and shake the TM management to scrambler for mid to long term solutions in the management of operations, expenses etc and they will become stronger. Non-contributors may find their way to the exit.

The price now reflects the included risks. Maybe more discounts will come. I am not sure how much the fees reduction would affect the bottom line (Are commercial business subscriber included)?

But those buying are showing their willingness as investors to go through the change journey with TM.

Mr 3iii,

It has always been interesting to see you writing since the days when Hengyuan was darling up towards 19, then it takes a breather at 17, 15, and finally below 9 in the recent months.

Being a fairly fresh trader/investor, it occurs to me that nothing seems to be as what it is especially over a longer period of time (i.e. 3 years can easily change something quite fundamentally).

1) What would be your advice for:
Those still holding Hengyuan, whatever their price. What would you propose them to do?

2) And, for those moving on, what would your advice for them be?
What kind of criteria one should look for in your view?
Such as investing with a company of consistently good EPS over 3 years, low gearing ratio below 0.25 or net cash, et Cetera..?

Appreciate you view, and Thanks.

Yesterday, we witness the annual general meeting and although the management has given many correct and legitimate answers to the shareholders, such as 1) keeping the 300+ cents EPS gained from financial year 2017 for growth and future prospects of the company, 2) limiting questioning from shareholders due to the need to comply to the exact schedule of the meeting...

It doesn't feel right for us to be in the meeting. After all, we got the "feeling" to lessen to speak, ask and seek clarification in a meeting that is convene only once a year. Perhaps the purpose of agm was not to seek clarification and understand the company better other than to approve the "usual business" such as re-electing directors to continue to work, 2) Approve director fees (less the justification on the fees), 3 Approve the auditors etc...

Although things are done rightly and abide to the rules of law, agm is a place where shareholders are dealt with, convinced and encouraged to support the views of the company. Dealing with people requires more than to be technically right and handle the emotional part of people. The management of shareholders was done very badly.

Such as, when you "forcefully" carry on with the meeting when a shareholder is speaking to meet your schedule, shareholders feel as though their rights to speak was taken away and was ashamed. If the situation was managed professionally like many other companies there would not be so many shareholders leaving with a feeling of disappointment and distrust.

But the damaged has been done. Image of trust was shattered...
If one day HY is out of debt and amass huge cash reserve, there is a wonder if they ever share it or use the same sentences again (keep for growth of company).

Sslee, great job, looking forward to the response from HRC.

Sslee,

Want to say Thanks for showing yourself at the AGM today and work for the benefits of the investors.

My opinion and impression at the agm, it could be done better but instead it was quite bad and so memorable for me. Many shareholders were agitated because of the way the meeting was conducted.

*Lack of presentation or explanation on the past success and future prospects of the company*
*A feeling of the lack of relationship building with shareholders*
*Meeting could have been managed better*

First, the mics were not only limited, there wasn't any on the floor (usually they'll put the mic in the hallway so that shareholders could use it).

Microphones was there in the hallway before meeting started. But it went missing mid way of the meeting. Meaning that it was removed. HY staff wasn't very proactive in managing the situation, resulting with shareholders speaking out on they throat and only given to them after shareholders requested it.

Furthermore, some parts of the meeting was done in mandarin and wasn't able to translate it in time (especially during the no mic period). There is a lack of support for good communication.

My opinion*
Kinda felt that set up was intended to reduce questions from shareholders. This goes to make shareholders quite angry.

Based on this, Hengyuan management should seek to improve upon the communication because this is one important opportunity to connect with your investors and to gain their support.

Petronm Management on another hand (2017 meeting) acts professionally and sincere to the shareholders as valuable investors.

According to historical record, result should release on End of 24th May 2018.

@ TheLegend27

Buy yesterday and hold till today is entitled to dividend.

Cash or credit facility is the same. The process to transferring share to under your name takes 3 Working days.

I'm waiting to reenter, hopefully can get around 5.

The reason ex-date is difference date from entitlement date is the mechanism to recognise who owns the share by what date. These two are actually the same things.

It typically requires 3 Working Days to get your purchase record to the Record of Depository. When your record is in there as we check today, it means you are officially the shareholder.

Following example on Lctitan ex-date (16 May 2018) and Entitlement Date (18 May 2018), this is how it works.

When you buy 1 Day before ex-date (15 May 2018), it is (T0).
On Ex-date it becomes T1. Same as you see on the record that these share you buy yesterday becomes T1.

On 18 May 2018, it is now T3. By the end of 5pm, you share purchase record goes into the record of Depository. If you haven't sell the share you must make payment hereon (after 5pm, the counter is closed and you can consider it a T4).

Notice that end of T3 day is the same as Entitlement date. This means you are now consider the shareholder (on T1, 2 or 3 you are not recognizer yet because the record cannot be found).

That's the reason why you must buy a day before Ex-date. It is the same thing if you want to attend agm and to be considered as a shareholder, you must follow the same rules (3 Working days before the record date).

Hope it helps, I too was search around to understand this concept. I'm writing what I found and confirmed with actual practice.

If you buy on ex-date (today) you don't entitle for dividend.

But as you see, you get to buy it cheaper by the dividend amount. You don't lose essential by buying today or yesterday.

Except if it opens high and stay that way to the end of day.

Will LCTITAN have to eventually sell those outstanding shares to the open market?

If not mistaken, LCTITAN have requested for the extension for sales of outstanding shares to comply to the regulations.

I'm sure they will take caution to avoid initiating sell down.

That means tomorrow the share price will drop by the amount of dividend in the morning.

Rafidah: Tony refused my resignation, and got crucified

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/424655

Maybe the drop in share price reflects the undeniable loss of market share to illicit tobacco market in the country. Illicit tobacco are making more than RM1bil based on selling price of RM4-6 per pack.

Rochman brand the entry level tobacco sells at RM12/pack, with RM8 of tax and RM4 as Revenue. The trend of illicit tobacco is growing to 59% of the total tobacco market in Malaysia as of 2017. BAT is giving 98% of profit as Dividend to shareholders, which is highest than all before. Even so, the dividend amount per share is drowning.

If this issue is not curb, BAT will have a hard time surviving less growth in this region.

Go go Hope, hope we get a Five days long weekend...

@mamatade,

My interpretation is the same, income is realized upon unit handover to buyers.
The current results are as such due to no recognized income yet, patient is needed.
According to Annual report 2017, first unit handover is between mid to end of 2018 is no delay. We can expect some greenish numbers by then. Let's wait then.

Please correct me if I have made mistakes, Thanks.

Just be careful, I realized Bull and Bear Market strategy / goal is different.

Bull - Increase your profit.
Bear - Protect your capital.

@ Tianqi
My understanding is if you hold till tomorrow (ex-date 03 Apr) you will get the Dividend.

But tomorrow morning you'll see a drop of 8 cents Dividend reflected in price.
(If close 1.48 today 5pm becomes 1.40 tomorrow morning @ 9am).

If you buy today and sell tomorrow morning. You gain nothing and your 8 cents are stuck till the payment date.

This is if no push up or down on price tomorrow.

If no holding power, opinion is don't get dividend by buying last minute. If steady or no up on price is risk, up only you gain.

Good morning Coffeecup,

Thanks for sharing the news and linking them.

Great interpretion, looks like you are experienced in the equity market.

Have been reading your views and like it because it look fair and less bias, please continue to share for the benefit of less experienced.

Have a good day.

Petronm warrant all vastly out of money, plus it reminds the misleading article on crack spread released by IB.

Many of you are right here, fire sales started. See you at AGM.