TP on 27/9/16: RHB RM7.83 (+20%) TA RM8.47 (+30%)

Hopefully there is a downward correction, so can collect more. Dreaming.

@vcheekeong, why so fast, slow and steady growth with good dividend.

@beginnerlearning, don't need to vouch or confirm, for that price, in an integrated township, any houses below RM500k with decently large built up area WILL be snapped up pronto.

@manji, you can strip off last year's forex gain, at the same time add in the current forex loss if you like. It is still a growth. That's factual. Opinions are another matter.

Factually correct. Perhaps you're the one living in denial.

Strip off forex gain last year, core profit still a gain even after including forex loss.

Wasn't this the same hng33 who was bashing VS with misleading info to serve his own agenda? He's still here trading? Proves my point.

@Hulk you are valuing RM86m NP, when will that be, 2018?

@Hulk you are valuing RM86m NP, when will that be, 2018?

@Explorer2, yes, it is in sight. Just hope market holds steady.

I'm back after 2 months posting hiatus. Where have all the naysayers and manipulators gone to? It's still hovering around RM1.20 since I last checked.

I'm back after 2 months posting hiatus. Price has performed well. Reaching my RM1.46 TP soon. Proof of the merits of just 'close eye and wait'.

Fundamentals in tact. Without going into details, current price is around fv, easily reachable any time. Beyond this, it requires a rerating. Not being greedy, 20% off is about RM10.

Also, this price sucks up capital, no point locking in more capital for lesser than 20% as already profiting handsomely. Maybe after ex if you're pulling any games.

That's about right I guess. 15x gives 2.55, which ties back with FYE15 DY 3.5%. 14x = RM2.38 DY 3.7%. Not even diluted yet. Looks fairly valued for now?

@valueguru, sounds challenging to value. I would put it at the higher end of manufacturing and lower end of consumer, guessing about 15x (35% discount to tech sector avg)?

@yeohhh, we should be polite and encourage those who try to analyse properly, doesn't matter if they are bull or bear. It is good for this discussion board, we can all learn.

@stockmanmy, that's because you're looking at qoq. If you read through all the analyst reports and historical figures, you'll understand why yoy is a better comparison. This year expecting RM140m NP or more.

@Banglala, you forgot the ratings? hehe. And of course, sentiments change, who in their right mind thinks it doesn't. So do the contract pricing for businesses.

Banglala, be noble, remember the terms 'not zero sum'. Enjoy your games.

It's not about the number for me. It's the value. 20% is fair. Otherwise what, 10%? That's too small, better put in dividend stock 5%-10% yield.

Wah, Banglala is back. I am not a forex pro. If you are, please give me opinion on what USD/MYR will be and why. Otherwise, we still need to refer to concensus view in the absence of info.

@Beary, as mentioned, feel free to provide a contrarian view to my points that were addressing an earlier member's questions. 1) Bloomberg concensus, which takes from various IBs around the world including Malaysia, does not indicate a recovery in the MYR to the 3.50-3.80 level (avg: 3.65) level. And 2) VS was already winning new contracts at those levels anyway. Right now your answer is: It might or might not. That, of course, everyone knows.

@stockmanmy, before I try to answer your questions, are you implying that Gtronic earnings down automatically = VS earnings down? If that is what you are asking, then very hard to answer you, because Gtronic closest peers UNISEM and MPI earnings are up.

Then my reply to the previous commenter still stands firm. Until there are substantial info that warrants a change in stance.

20% from current price at least, to be able to top up.

So please provide us with some facts and analysis on why it might strengthen past the 3.60-3.80 (avg: 3.65) level. And how this may impact VS. Otherwise, we have to defer to concensus view in the absence of such contrary info.

@stockmanmy, was the Gtronic price decline due to a big decline in yoy earnings? If that is so, VS is not expected to post such drop in the coming results announcement. In fact, growth is expected.

That statement was to clarify @cutloss's question on how VS might be impacted if MYR strengthens. My answer to his question, to summarize: Consensus view that USD/MYR is not expected to strengthen to 3.50-3.80 (avg: 3.65) anytime soon. Even if it did happen, VS was winning new contracts at that level anyway.

Let me refine my statement with slightly more accurate words if you wish: 'with the very recent devaluation and rate cuts of major Asian currencies'. Better now?

So, tell me again, the main point we were all discussing: What are the impact to VS's business in relation to the forecast value of the USD/MYR?

Let's not forget the main point of my statement was about 'USD/MYR is not expected to strengthen to 3.50-3.80 (avg: 3.65) any time soon, which is a level that VS was winning new contracts'.

Any challengers to this point? Still waiting. It is a fundamental business issue. I am sure the readers here will appreciate opinions based on facts, which so far none were presented.

@cwingz, I am still nibbling away at some reasonably priced stocks.

@2centsense, seems like the answers that we were waiting for to challenge our opinions will not be coming any time soon.

Why not? If you are so smart as you imply yourself to be, please educate us with facts to the contrary, and why my opinion that USD/MYR is not expected to strengthen to 3.50-3.80 (avg: 3.65) any time soon, a level that VS was still winning new contracts, is incorrect. Still waiting for facts.
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29/04/2016 10:41 Beary PBOC can devalue currency meh? Negative interest rate is devalue currency kah?

So the forex expert @Beary please come in to give us a forex terminology class for the layman who are wrong, and more importantly for the benefit of all here, why VS is going to face some currency problems and not do well in business. Thank you.

PBOC just devalued in 2H15, BOJ just embarked on negative interest rates early this year, and market still expected them to cut more until yesterday when they held rates. So far I don't think there are consensus for potential rate hikes among major Asian currencies. And more importantly, USD/MYR pair which VS is primarily trading in, is not expected to retrace to 3.50-3.80 (avg: 3.65) levels any time this year. Are these correct or wrong @Beary? Any reports to challenge these?

Someone implying that I'm wrong and he is very good, I'm eagerly waiting for facts that says the contrary so I can change my own opinion that MYR is not going to strengthen beyond the RM3.50-3.80 (avg: 3.65) level which VS was still getting new contracts.

HAHA nitpicking words? @Beary feel free to challenge my statement which clearly brought about the message that MYR should not retrace to the USD/MYR3.50-3.80 (simple average: 3.65) level any time soon. Provide us with some forecasts contrary to this? Thank you.

@2centsense, forget it, Beary only tries to nitpick words, twist around words, say words and logic are wrong, etc. but will never respond with FACTS. Just watch his next replies, bet with you.

It started with China's devaluation of the CNY since 2H15, followed by Japan's negative interest rates early this year. For the MYR, domestically (and also internationally), consensus forecasts I believe should be around the USD/MYR 3.70-4.00 level for 2016. You have links to any consensus reports for the value of MYR? Don't mind sharing with everyone here?

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29/04/2016 09:44 Beary Which Asian currencies are being devalued? How come I don't know?

@cutloss, VS was getting new contracts at USD/MYR 3.50-3.80. In fact, that period was among their highest financial growth phase. Do you think the currency pair is going to retrace to that level anytime soon when major Asian currencies are being devalued?

@valuguru, any texts on that topic that I can read on?

@deadpool, trading rangebound. No chance to top up from cheap sale.

But what baffles me is the earnings multiple that is 15-17x, unjustified for a small cap manufacturing stock in Malaysia. None of the regional large cap peers command such valuations. Not even US listed Flextronics.

@cwingz, you are right, I will cut down on my posts of catching scammers. Trust that some of the regulars readers here like @yeohhh @dusti @geary @2centsense and yourself, are now fully aware of how these scammers use multiple fake accounts to try to mislead others for their own short term benefit. Looking forward to reading some of your beautiful posts on the business in future.

@Earth, where are all your old comments bashing VS?

Deleted ALL after proven you're a scammer? HAHA.

The scammer @Beary is back? The credibility of your username is destroyed now, the regulars are against you, and your posts are deleted by the i3investor moderators. For comparison, none of my posts were deleted even after being flagged by the scammers like you. Says alot.

@ipomember, if you manage to find Beary's "earlier posts" that he claims can give you a satisfactory explanation, please copy and paste here for us to read. I am sure you can't find it.

@cwingz, as you are a regular poster here and part of the community, what do you think, should I commence my posts that warn new readers about scammers again? Shall we do this till i3investor implement their new system changes that allow us to weed out scammers?

@Banglala all your models don't matter too much, we both know that at the end of the day the long term price still largely depends on whether at least a few big funds are buying to hold and whether more would come in future as the company's profit grow on a nice trend. Share your TP lah since you sound like a trading team, so I can ready some cash to buy more.

@cwingz, I know, he must be linked to some insiders. VS and some of the counters I track are like that. They have about 3-6 months contracts on orders, which will affect the forex gain/loss portion when there are large swings taking place before a repricing. I've hinted the same previously if you check my reply, hehehehehe. But yes, you're right, I believe he is connected.