SOLD 3.79, nicely done. Very good performance already. From here i can rest whole month and wait for qr release.

Banks are gathering data on their projected NPL growth, once that is cleared only then will they plan on mitigation if needed. We wont know of any dangerous signs at least until Q4 is over. It will continue on downtrend or sideways until december. I also dont see how the upcoming us election going to affect bursa, if trump wins fed continue current monetary policy, if biden wins it will also continue because democrats are pro-business + relations with china start healing. There will also not be another blanket lockdown with 100% certainty, only statewide lockdown. So economic recovery will begin soon.

go check macquarie how much volume of the closest expiring warrant then compare how many days downtrend volume if not equal means still got more. But even this method it still dont take into account of mother share selldown so, can only speculate.

Pmetal is overvalued. With PE ratio way too high comparing to ROE, almost 3 times. Last 4 qtr recorded profit falling down. Wonder how its still maintaining this price, not even maintain even gaining a lot pass the march fall. Also saw several ratings issued by IB/Analyst which put target around 4 weeks low. Almost scam like.. investor beware

Probably wont be any good news for mtag for awhile. The price run up is not sustainable. It was driven by euphoria, margin relax, cheap liquidity. Business wise nothing to add also, labeling/printing/3M related all is running at near capacity. But management not confident enough demand will stay that they chose to do that instead of investing in new facility. They were forced to convert warehouse into space for more printing machine instead of expanding even slightly.

With covid here to stay, consumer demand across the board will reduce, means less business for mtag. There is also risk of 1 or 2 customer controlling a large portion of revenue for mtag. Risky, if this customer choose to reduce their inventory. Major earning miss can be expected. For now wont stay with mtag maybe in future.

2nd wave of buying, interesting. i sold out some of my holdings on gcb few days ago, today high 10%. Really one kind, at least still have half. Gonna secure some profit first.

Methanol exports down by 70% as stated in dosm report. With pengerang offline and methanol volume sold hit hard, can expect pchem to be underperforming for the rest of the year. Can see pchem shed back almost all the gains since march at 5 or below.

Ya, the word slip out of tongue. Change to under performing.

Apart from earning reduction, many ppl are moving funds into healthcare and tech sector. They are rebalancing their portfolio. Expect many blue chips counter to go downtrend for couple more months, my estimate is until Q4. For tenaga it has been on a downtrend for the past 2 years with yesterday hitting its lowest point in 4 years.

The business shutdown affected a lot of energy usage. Suspect it wont recover until Q3 of FY20.

I think NPL around 5-6%. Any lower is far too optimistic. KLCI is also not moving because ppl is merely moving funds out of different counter and into gloves and healthcare related. You can see this happening by looking at utility and communication company. Kena shoot down really bad.
Pass 2 week indices are only green on 2 category healthcare and technology, others bright red.
Also dont be too fast to step aside npl, it can go really bad if banks force to consider it as impairment. God knows when can recover impairment for defaulted loan, presumably never.

I have no more holdings on cimb as of last month, but i will keep in watchlist because banks is primary growth indicator of economy but to anyone recommending to collect now, pls dont. Earning reduction is for sure for Q3 maybe even Q4, so down can go even lower, why would you recommend something so risky.

The optimism is this discussion is too high in my opinion. Cimb revenue is projected to drop by around 3-4% and its profitability is also in high risk of double digit drop. Ending of moratorium is when we can really see how badly affected is the NPL. Im not holding my breath, Banks whole sector is re-rated downward but we can see some banks price recovering but not cimb, why?

Sold half my holding, keep the rest for future. One thing to note for GCB is that while revenue is growing its profitability is eroding slightly, maybe competition for other coco producers.

What the... sudden move..

At this point its not valued or overvalued, we will need to refer to BNM policy. Rumor around is that another rate cut is very likely at next OPR meeting 7 July. Further cut will compress margin further, look at whole bank sector. Overall all banking stocks is consolidating close to march big fall.

we know from end march is when delivery services spike up, there was news about pos and poslaju overwhelm by huge package delivery backlog, question is how much did orna gain from this. once this drop over, its worth to check for 2nd quarter of orna. Actually all paper company orna, master, pphb. They provide boxes for consumer shipping.

Up swing is not sustainable, i have to admit i miss the rebound boat. Pchem make me a feel bitter. But i still have topglove to keep me happy. Lose some win some.

US cannot join, there is so many antitrust law in US. The 3 major competition law under dept of justice, sherman-clayman-FTC. There is no way trump can get enough support to repeal clauses of those laws. Whats more likely is US will strongarm saudi so they will negotiate with russia.

For pchem material stocks of LNG gas will get cheaper so thats good because korea gas already asked petronas to defer shipment due to demand. With no place to go petronas will feed pchem. Short term cash squeeze, but over time its positive.

Oil shipments surging during end of march, in line with saudi plans to drive oil supply up to 12mb/d from current 9mb/d. Roughly 25% increase in supply. Demand is not able to absorb especially with factories closing and what not. Not sustainable for petronas to continue drilling and pumping. At this price its better for petronas to buy the barrels and build up inventories.

Chocolate products and derivatives will take a hit. Especially with ban of large gathering, FIFO only for GCB. Exited 2.1 bought at 1.9. Now going to hide until market become rational again.

I fifo, bought 0.95 exited at 1.08 left some profit on table but its ok, securing profit first. Market limit up never stays limit up, will always follow by steep gap down. Competitor is not having this kind of movement, so this is weird for master.

It has started, the waiving of interest accrueing for a period of 6 months by RHB. The way i see it rhb will only dare to give out that statement if they have agreement from whole banking industry to do the same. So for CIMB its only a matter of time before they come out with that statement as well. Positive PR gain but negative earnings growth, for the entire sector.

If this news still drive banking stocks up it really confirm market have gone crazy. No incentive and forward guidance, regional country started initiating lockdown(cimb have branch in thai and indo), loan moratorium for 6 months, suspension of interest compound. So freaking many negative drivers. Keep in mind IDSS and PDT is still in suspension up to 31st march. How the hell can rally in finance sector be sustainable?? Crazy sentiment.

Well waiving of interest will hit out RHB earnings. Wonder if the entire finance industry will waive it or not. Because if u think about it there is no way rhb will agree to waiving its interest for a period of 6 months without express agreement from whole banking sector to do the same. That will just drive all investor to the bank that won't cut interest.

Finance sector is negative for 2QTR.

Bank is set to give 6 months moratorium on all loans individual and SME included. I dont see how financials can close green, and i dont even understand how it can even be showing any sort green right now. Madness of market right here.

Movement lock down will further strain thousands of business. Retrenchment is a very real possibility, especially when we consider that Covid 19 could possibly stay for a long time. NPL and GIL is going to spike for majority of lending banks.

Cimb is going to get hit hard. I sold off entire holding on cimb 2 weeks ago at huge loss +-6%. Today i see the price and i am very spook, if i did not liquidate at that time, i may be holding on
15-20% loss on just 1 counter. Im going away from banking stocks until at least 2nd half of FY20. God bless all of u that is still holding, its not the end, go gold, commodity(fgv,metal), utility(tnb,tm), healthcare.

There is expected to be another 2 or 1 opr cut in H2 FY2020, finance sector will get hit. If gov decide to push banking sector to help will economy that is another hit as well. With companies not doing well retrenchment is expected, workers that are let go cannot service their loan, hit GIL for finance stock. There is so much variable now, avoid finance. Go for retail food, health, commodities, tech, these sectors is much more able to weather recession and they are also the primary growth of economy.

Explosion on refinery, another negative tomorrow.

Another crash, tempted to crack open all my FD to prepare bullet. These kinds of crash is like a miracle for company with strong fundamentals.

What is happening at this co? 15% down.

Saudi/Russia/Opec primary goal is to bleed out US Shale Co. In a research article, us shale price can be profitable provided the cost to pump/process is below a certain threshold to achieve break even. There is no way saudi can keep them out of the oil business unless they willing to keep oil under 40$/barrel for years, its just not possible because saudi entire country budget relies on oil. That will crush their economy. Its a losing war. So what the hell is saudi trying to achieve, who knows.

For pchem, watch for pengerang plant, downtime plan at the other site and supply capacity. At this current price, its lowest in years, i have to say my finger really really want to click buy but my heart says no.

@Outliar, do it. I want to see. Good be your big break.

No way pchem next 2q will be spectacular, there will be 1 methanol plant undergoing maintenance, the Pengerang also only starting to ramp up productions but we know market demand cannot absorb the surplus inventories. So how can pchem perform well FY20. Provided ofc oil price is lower now so cost is reduce but how far can the cost be offset when contracts are done several months back.

This kind of market uncertainty, no fund manager will support until have clarity. If not they risk their job to support not to mention depositors fund.

only -20%, its not total loss, if philip can hold 1-2 yr wait saudi and russia to cut supply again, then he will recover, others why so terrible. tsk tsk immature

Gap down pchem? saudi initiated price war

As expected, another 0.25% cut. 1H20 and already 2 cuts not even FD is safe anymore. We can also expect inflation to rise a little, such a bad decision.

Its more to do with banking NIM squeeze. If im not wrong Cimb have more business in interest generating asset. Thats why any OPR decision can shake the price. Why MBB and PBB is not more affected as bad as cimb im not sure, maybe they are more balanced in their asset management. I dont really look at chart, but you can see its downtrending for entire finance sector pbb, rhb, bimb, cimb, ammb, only maybank relatively stable. Market is taking into account that there will likely be 2-3 cut in FY20.

There is also the case where CIMB have higher foreign shareholding at 30%+- compare to MBB(20%+-).

In all case, political instability will affect overall klse not just finance sector. I should probably prepare USD to hedge myr.

Normal correction, just need to watch a few more days, see BNM cut rate or not. IF BNM cut another 25bps then expect another selldown. But now looking at cimb price, it seems likely they had insider notice on cutting. Nobody knows, although reading about US fed, if fed cut, then most likely it will affect RM as well, then bnm will preemptively cut as well.

Seems further downside likely. Div maybe announce in march. March 3 BNM convene another OPR meeting, the first cut of this year's OPR still havent analyzed and if another cut by 25bps, finance counter will be red again. No room to breathe at all.

WEWE, at this price its sooooo tempting..

This 2 comment above is very funny, hahahaha. Do your own research wor. Base cimb group earnings not only on MY but also IND and TH. Due to MY saturated by banks from big-mid-small, growth is very little and not appetizing. Thats why u look at overseas expansion, and we already know the growth is not leap and bounds.

Probably good idea to watch budget 2020 announcement before making any moves for now. If gov announce new measure to help housing sales, could be a boon for banking sector, more loans but it could cause the GIL to grow if not careful.

Human resource ministry is consulting with cabinet to adding additional clause in the Employment Act 1955, specifically for labour rights. Glove industry will be affected.

1 year low but at least we finally see price settle under 5. Those fund managers so annoying keep maintaining above 5, cant even see market price

Topglove not designated WRO status but the sharp drop occured few days before news release. Why? Did major shareholder somehow know what happen inside and sell first without checking news simply base on "glove company from malaysia". Only after they realise topglove not in crosshair they stop selling, but the damage is done. If HR ministry or CBP officers do inspection at topglove factory, what will they find?

Most likely risky to put fund in topglove, should prepare to move funds to other company. Supermax, Harta, Kossan or Thailand Sri Thang if want to hedge against whole MY glove industry.

Harta and Kossan not much affected. I have heard about topglove bad employer record but i dont know about the others. Hope this seizure is contained with topglove only. If they start seizing others, it will cause whole industry downturn. Hope our human resource ministry is monitoring this close.

Lodgement date is at october so 1 more week before anything. Ex date also in november, still so far, i think by that time the price could be near or at drp price 4.6++. May as well just take div in cash form.

US fed is a market benchmark, other Central Banks will likely follow. Stocks and bond will benefit but not finance stocks. This will cut into banking sector NIM and i think hurt most in Fixed Income and the derivatives. This time fed purpose of cutting is to boost inflation by a bit. Since BNM already said no moves for this quarter, wont have an effect yet. But sooner or later BNM will most likely follow, keep an eye on Nov 5 if not Jan 2020. Downward pressure on cimb should have been seen but its maintaining the price, weird flex by fund managers.

As expected oil output normalised end of month or early next month. Not only that everyone currently pumping extra to "normalised"(take advantage secure market share) supply is pumping above normal; US also releasing its reserves. So all this combine can cause surplus. Who knows how much. Question will other countries reduce pump once supply "normalise". I doubt russia would.. so why would others

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/oil-slips-following-the-biggest-climb-in-history-after-saudi-attacks.html

Oh i see, makes sense for them to pump, i dont have holdings anymore in pchem but can reenter when i dont see any jigsaw movement like this. Good to know

Harta have good fundamentals, good future planning and have already allocated capex for expansion. Doesnt look like anything wrong to put fund in it. I dont see what gooshen says on chart also, what rebound, looks like normal capital growth. FYI rebound is a drop and then go up within short time frame.