interesting to see that Hibby is now trading at 4x FY24 Earnings only. :) [Hong Leong IB Note 10 Nov 22]
shock and awe please Dr Kenneth. declare crazy dividends and the market cannot ignore this counter anymore :P

aiyo really drop to 40 sen kah...dead..

aiyo really drop to 40 sen kah...dead..

have you seen the dollar to ringgit rate? crazy! highest since Parameswara weh!
will Hibby benefit or not? let's see :P

also, the NTA is > than current mkt price. Lets hope Dr Kenn will just declare a bombastic dividend to shut up these blardy speculators.

the Public Bank analyst covering Hibiscus is so lousy. On her 21/7 note: PAT FY22f: RM268.7m, suddenly 25Aug: RM338m..EPS: from 10sen to 30.5sen. so out of touch! I wonder if she gets penalised for missing the targets by 70 mil (PAT) and 3x for EPS.
Also, at 30 to 40sen, that gives a PE ratio of 2.7x at current market prices.
The world is filled with unreasonable folks!

The supply situation has not improved. consistent underinvestment for a decade, with ONG talent at multi year low and choking of capital into Dirty Energy. Yet, algos and speculators are overplaying the demand destruction and recession theme. Boom. Saudi oil minister calls out these paper speculation/ manipulation and boom: Oil jumps 4%.

It's a tight tight market, why fight reality with narratives?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-opec-oil-markets-production-cuts-iran-deal-sen-2022-8

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rise-after-saudi-says-opec-could-cut-output-2022-08-23/

The supply situation has not improved. consistent underinvestment for a decade, with ONG talent at multi year low and choking of capital into Dirty Energy. Yet, algos and speculators are overplaying the demand destruction and recession theme. Boom. Saudi oil minister calls out these paper speculation/ manipulation and boom: Oil jumps 4%.

It's a tight tight market, why fight reality with narratives?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-opec-oil-markets-production-cuts-iran-deal-sen-2022-8

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rise-after-saudi-says-opec-could-cut-output-2022-08-23/

I honestly don't understand the obsession with diversifying into other brands. Paris Baguette? What is that?! Even Kenny Rogers is a waste of time. CEO should be hyper-selective on which brands to introduce and commit. Don't make diversification as diworsification.

@zhangzuode the one thing i respect about the mgmt of hibiscus is that they seem smart but also prudent, a combination very difficult to find in this world. most smarties are super arrogant and fall due to that.

i also secretly hope that they will do a shock & awe by declaring crazy dividends some time before CY22 ends. then we will see who has been swimming naked and who's in a YACHT :P

stay safe everyone!

8 billion RM borrowing in USD. now at 4.5 to the ringgek. die standing la weh!

so interesting to see how narratives drive markets and assets pricing. sometimes, logic and gravity defying.
interesting indeed and very humbling!

What is life if we are too pessimistic?
Hence, I am sharing some optimistic view of my back-of-the-envelope calcs:

Apr: 102/bbl* RM4.26/USD *719,851= RM312.8 mil
May: 107/bbl*RM4.35/USD*685,900= RM319.3 mil
June: 117/bbl*RM4.40/USD*671,000= RM345.4 mil
Q4 FY22: Revenue Expected= ~RM977.7 mil
+YTD: RM828.2 mil= RM1805.7 mil
Yang lain kira sendiri. Not enuf time haha

This is not investment advice, This is just my attempt at forecasting. Wanna know if I am any good in calculating or just another dumb2 hahaha.
All ze best fellow investors.

To punters, byeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Too many people just talking out of their depth calling TNB will drop to RM4.5

1. It is still in the interest of the Govt (whichever party) to ensure we have a stable electricity co for the nation
2. It is, for all intents and purposes, the only Natural Monopoly in Malaysia
3. All the largest Funds/ GLICs are balls deep in Tenaga
4. Yes, the risk is the high coal prices but Govt has to step in to manage this to ensure there's no riots on the streets.
5. Survivorship bias- 10 years from now, you would see many companies die, but Tenaga? Good luck trying to kill this company.

wow price is soooo ugly. last time this low was 2015 and 2014. will it drop to RM7.45 soon?
tenaga has been in bear market for 1529 days lol ... thats 4.2 years. talk about Bear Market

Value is a multiplier calculation, not addition or subtraction.

Consider multifactors:
Barrels x price x Forex x etc.

Good luck people

Interesting proxy to a strong dollar.

Shanghai just re-opened. Imagine that impact on oil and BDI.

sadly, people won't use oil for the next 1 year. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak just walloped tax on UK producers to raise 15b revenues (and only give 90% exemption with capex).
Malaysian oil going to spoil in the next month and all production not already on offtakes will burn into ashes.
Mail will buy so much Burberry shirts.
and oil will crash to negative 20bbl. Will Hibiscus survive?
or will it go back to 22 sen as 19.3.2020? run for your life!

god. why is this company still alive. the world doesn't need semiconductor anymore. it should now be 65 sen max. dear. waste of capital!

is the market backward looking or forward looking? I am beginning to ask myself.
yes offtakes in QEnded Mar 22 was less. but does that mean, offtakes are going to remain low for the whole of CY22?
the street is upset that numbers were not delivered. let's hope (and scrutinise) Mgmt to see if they are able to deliver the rest for 6months CY22.

Opex have increased, COF also increased- this indicates they are doing something (otherwise where is all that expense going towards?)

The Street may forgive this past less exciting quarter but if next quarter is also underwhelming, things may be bloody :P

Just a brief review of latest results: (vs last quarter)
1. In terms of Cash from Operations- grew from RM277 mil to RM616 mil
2. FCF: from RM268 to RM537 mil (disregarding one-off capex)
3. Interest coverage ratio dropped from >9x to 1.6x, in line with increased borrowings from RM19.2 mil to RM183mil
4. Finance cost also grew QoQ from RM20.4m to RM36.9mil

My worry is if the elevated borrowings can act as a source of financial risk. Otherwise, with the buoyant Brent & gas prices, FCF generation should be better going forward, especially as we are waiting from another >2mil bbl to be produced for this Quarter April to June 22.

Hopefully, Management will be extra cautious with capital management.

to those lazy to read, there's a Youtube update on the quarterly result:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ekehJ6d_50&t=5s

i think below 65 sen can start go in again. lets wait and see..

@titanium yes conceptually plantation should be able to hedge against inflation. however, be cautious on each company's size of hedging of forward contracts (ie lock yesterday's price for tomorrow's selling price)
i got in one company for the macro but the mgmt screwed up by overhedging. in this buoyant market, naked price is syiok .

People need to stop punting and start calculating the FCF from this company. When the market starts seeing this, even the analysts will be surprised.

Wow. FCF increased by 19% qoq.

i still can't brain the daily violent gyrations. it's as if the only thing that matters for this counter is the price of oil, when in truth, they have new cash streams from a mature asset recently acquired, not reflected in prior quarters.
interesting to see the numbers of the coming quarters.

risk: unbridled spike to MGS10yr (rfr) but it's anyone's guess really. will the Fed allow US10yr to spike to 4%? that's a death blow to the global economy really.

@observatory @ zhangzhuode @dragon
are you guys seeing what's happening to the Risk Free Rate/ Discount Rate? my dreaded alternate future is coming true.
While I am positive on the earnings & cashflow growth, I am very scared with the discount rates spiking like mad

What are your thoughts? any severe negative impacts on your model & valuation?
hate this weh. :(

shit la weh. when is this gonna stop? this tape is broken real bad man. this counter has lost 80% of value weh from its ATH. will it lose another 80%? damn... broke weh. haha.

wow. RM7k again the price of CPO....crazy world!

if Dr Ken wants to shock the market, given the juicy amount of Cashflow, he may as well just declare some special dividends . (if i were the Mgmt, i would do that haha- sadly, my company i work at barely surviving and free cash flow is all just rainbows and unicorns. lol)

It's a joke. The whole world and their central banks and mainstream WS banks try to give a bad story of the world economy but oil could barely stay below 100 for 1 day.

You see what's happening?

can't wait to see the Q1 CY22 results.

thanks Indonesia for banning exports! :)
Love u Jokowi

Indonesia band exports. This is crazy. But good for us holders of UTDP.
Msian CPO will now be selling like hot pisang goreng.

https://twitter.com/Investingcom/status/1517949794320322560?t=KLCnQVGluTwqDOrF3SAVRQ&s=19

I think the business side of the equation for Hibby is great.

But I am concerned of the emergent massive volatility in the financial markets-potential risks.

1. Spike in USDMYR ER may prove a boon to Hibby in short to med term. (But let's hope the flow out from Asia back to US won't impact too much - capital markets transmission) [*NB highest was 4.4567 in Dec 2016/USD.]

2. Our Risk Free Rate 10Y MGS (opportunity cost & DCF discount rate/WACC) has also jumped to 4.2% (2008: 4.8%). When the denominator jumps, the numerator has to keep up or outpace to maintain lofty valuation.

3. Nonetheless, I have a feeling that behavioral finance factors will push capital to safer plays and commodities will do well (vs others more exposed to cost pressures without ability to defend margins). Esp after taking into account real yields. If our actual inflation (vs official inflation) is more than 8%, even 5% Rfr means nothing. No place is safe today.

God speed we will see more upside from here. Thanks fellow investors for your rich perspectives. (no thanks to the punters. You guys make Bursa noisy and lousy)

i just hope Dr Ken can keep to very strong capital allocation discipline as he has shown throughout the years.
Sapura is a lot of BS. Avoid it like a plague.
if wanna capex, focus on boring stable assets, and buy at a steep discount.

also, if he is serious about shocking the market, he should pay out 50% of FCF in dividend next 12 months (can be one-off but will definitely excite market and make all the big Funds drool)

if you compare the price of gold vs copper, it seems that copper is about the same % increase with gold.
but now gold & PM stocks (e.g. Newmont etc) have gone up gao2..

this could be the last moment to load up on JAG, a proxy play to the copper trade in Malaysia.
we are now in a quiet bull regime (per MacroOps)..

things should look better going forward if the price of copper can sustain within this band

Have u seen the outlets? The one at Klcc area like Zouk at 11pm on weekend.
Kindly share how your local outlets are doing so we can have a feel of "now-casting" to gauge coming performance. Thanks

Avg CPO volume per month: 21.1 MT
Avg PKO volume per month: 4.3 MT
Avg Coconut sold per month: 7.25 mil pieces

Forecast Rev FY22 (cyclical considered): RM2.264b
PBT: RM174.5mil
PAT: RM416 mil
at PE Ratios: 13x: TP RM18.4; @ 14x: RM19.8, @ 15x: RM21.2

Just back of the envelope calc.
Honestly difficult to forecast actual volume, but some confidence interval required..

*not investment advice, do your ownd due d*

based on the BFM Breakfast Grille interview, Datuk CEO is quite confident that BJF would be able to exceed market expectations of FY PATMI of RM80 mil.

My lazy back of the envelope calc
Q1: 11.63
Q2: 38.88
Q3: 35 to 40?
Q4: 35 to 40?
FY: 120 to 130 mil

Current PE ratio: 18x
[Discount and use 16x]

Tgt mcap: RM1920mil to RM2080mil
Tgt share price: RM4.9 to RM5.3
Upside from price now: a further 35% to 46%

Seems a bit high, maybe can use 15x PE ratio and discount 10% earnings: [Adjusted /conservative]
FY PATMI: RM108 mil to RM117
PE: 15x
EPS: RM0.27 to RM0.30
TP: RM 4.05 to RM4.50

*This is not investment advice, only sharing of notes. Do your own due diligence please. Thank you*

as always, @twynstar offers very detailed insights for the value investors out here.
sadly, too many punters who don't even know how to use excel on this forum and their only cue for buy & sales is daily moves in oil price. sad :(

any of you been to starbucks recently? this bulan puasa, it's crazy weh the queue esp weekend evenings. q sampai road side the one at Avenue K. i went to buy coffee, so stressed too many people like this is some MRDIY ..but then again i remember I am a shareholder so I smile and just leave..please please buy :P

@izoklse ahaha i think yes some institutionals would buy but PNB? low blow bro haha. kesian PNB team kena billion in impairment from Sapura, as well as loss transmission via Maybank and CIMB (which PNB is a major/ significant holder) haha

Great close to 1st quarter average prices of brent: Jan: $84bbl,Feb:$94bbl, Mar:$103bbl
With the new Repsol+ can't wait to see if the profits are per some of the calculations/ forecast here. Would be very interesting

Newmont and the likes are recording ATH as I write.
The financialised economy of the West is crumbling, beginning with the long due unravelling of the PetroDollar.

But PohKong seems asleep. One simple trick if the Chairman/ Shareholder wants to become rich overnight is to declare a surprise windfall dividend.

Well he can issue options today at today's price, then declare dividends maybe one of close to 70% of EPS, then exercise those options and unrealised profit boom. :P

@new_investor92 still tracking here .. but gotta remain very sabar for this one cos tech is currently being butchered. I think might retest 90 sen or lower before any upside

tenaga has now been in a bear market for 1,460 days, that is 4 years. wow. amazing market action suppressed by EPF constant selling.

615 days TopGlove already been in bear market. interesting. what happens when next global recession? going to 20 sen or spike to 6 ringgek