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2019-03-23 21:35 | Report Abuse
Probablility , in my opinion , it is better to project 2019 earning rather than just the Q1 performance because Dayang's revenue and earning can be very seasonal . Let me share both the 2017 and 2018 performances by qtrs so that we can preject 2019 better .
Disaggregates of Revenue
2017 ( in millions ) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
Scheduled rates 97 113 75 60 345
Lump sum 8 56 104 83 251
Total 105 169 179 143 696
2018
Scheduled rates 124 120 127 -29 342
Lump Sum 12 81 111 269 473
Total 136 201 238 240 805
Based on the above data ,
1. there was an obvious increase in revenues of both scheduled rates and lump sum from 2017 to 2018 .
2. The 2018 Q4 scheduled rate revenue was obviously missing but negative instead .This is abnormal . We expect the number to be around 100 million because it is a monsoon period correspond with lower number in the same period in Q42017 but not negative .
This revenue could be booked in Q1 2019
3. The lump sum revenue in Q1 for both 2017 and 2018 are extremely small. THis could be due to Monsoon ?
4. By omitting Q4 revenue for scheduled rates which is abonormal for Q4 2018, the average 3 qtrs 2018 scheduled rates is 30 % higher than 2017.
5. The lump sum revenue for 2018 is almost doubled the 2017 numbers .
Projected Outlook for Q12019 .
1. I expect Q1 lump sum revenue to be much less than Q4 18 and in line with corresponding Q1 result for both 2017 and 2018 .
2. The scheduled rates revenue may be doubled due to uncaptured revenue in Q4 18 which will be booked in Q1 .
3. WIth more rigs operating in 2019 , we expect the scheduled rates to be correspondingly higher than 2018 .
4. With other revenues from vessel charter , Q1 19 most probably can achieve similar revenue as Q4 18 due to lower lump sum but higher scheduled rates as explained above.
5. 2019 Q2 , Q3 and Q4 overall revenues will be higher than 2018 correspond with the opinions of IBs and more spending by Petronas with the increase in number of rigs .
2019-03-23 17:30 | Report Abuse
Dear Probability , I am glad you asked this question in i3 forum.
You can find the answer in section A 11 of the financial reports under the heading Diasggregation of Revenue . The devil is in the details .
The 2018 scheduled rates revenues for Q1 ,Q2, Q3 and Q4 were 124 , 120 127 and -29 millions respectively while the respective lump sum revenue
were 12 millions , 81 millions , 111 millions and 269 millions respectively . The scheduled rates for routine maintenance is about 120 million per qtr . You can see that this revenue was missing in Q4 . You may be able to find the answer in the last paragraph of HL report which states that some of the work has been completed in Q4 and the cost captured but the profits will only be booked in 1H2019 pending clients approval . I strongly suspected that the scheduled rates revenue of about 120 million will be captured in Q1 2019 . Whether it is intentional no one knows because with the exceptionally high lump sum revene of RM 269 million in Q4 , target is already met . Might as well bring the scheduled rate revenue of Q4 to Q1 forseeing that the lump sum revenue in Q1 may not be as high as 269 million . Hope this help to explain .Again ,it is my opinion only.
2019-03-23 17:05 | Report Abuse
Let's do a quick layman analysis of Dayang Revenue and earnings for 2013 and 2014 which were their peak time before the oil price crash and also look at the 2018 revenue and earnings .
The 2013 revenue and profits was 563 million and 148 million respectively
The 2014 revenue and profits was 876 million and 176 million respectively
THe 2018 revenue and profit was 935 million and 164 million respectively
The share price in 2013 and 2014 was about RM 1.70 . The 2018 revenue was higher than the 2013 and 2014 revenue . THe profit was also higher than the average of 2013 and 2014 . Why the 3 IBs are saying that 1.70 in 2019 is too pricey when all of them agreed that 2019 earnings will be better . With Q1 2019 earnings which we expect to be positive , the rolling 4 qtrs revenue will touch 1 billion and earning touching 200 millions . This will be much higher than the 2013 and 2014 respective revenue and earnings ? If the 3 IBs considered the RM 1.70 as over their " targetted pricing " , then all O and G stocks were much much over priced than their
hypothetical prices without basis . Why keeping silent on other O&G stocks but focussed on Dayang which recovered the fastest among the other stocks ? This is like Kuman diseberang laut nampak tetapi gajah di depan mata tak kelihatan .
2019-03-23 16:26 | Report Abuse
The last five years from 2013 to was a booming period for the semiconductor and electronic sectors . Companies related to these sectors like Elsoft, Inari , JHM, GLobetronics, Penta, MMSV , Vitrox have seen their share prices skyrockted from 5x to 10 x within a few years . The exponential growth usually happened in the 3rd and 4th year from the beginning of the growth period . The O&G sector started to see oil price recovery from 2016 after a sharp drop from end of 2014 till end of 2015 . It was until end of 2017 that the oil price recovered to the US 60 per barrel . Due to the lagging effect of upstream and downstream O&G counters which benefited from the recovery , we started to see these counters started to have positive earnings since 2018 . It is not a surprise to see prices of these counters to have a rally from the extremely depressed prices of such counters . Many O&G stocks had their prices drop to 1/5 to 1/10 of their peak prices before 2014 . If these stocks recovered with the earnings equivalent to their 2013 or 2014 levels , is it a surprise that their prices doubled or tripled from the badly beaten prices due to negative earnings ?
2019-03-23 08:36 | Report Abuse
I do not believe that it is a coincidence that these 3 IBs targetted Dayang to downgrade instead of Carimin and Penergy . THey do have their malicious motive and agenda . Ada Udang disebalik batu .
2019-03-23 08:32 | Report Abuse
There are 3 O&G counters with their share prices went up to 3x within 2 to 3 months . These counters are Dayang , Carimin and Penergy . In terms of Earning performances , Dayang performed the best with last 4 qtrs earnings in ascending order and 3 qtrs of positive earnings . Carimin had 2 qtrs of positive earnings but last qtr performed worst than previous qtr. Penergy only had its last qtr earning in positive recovery . Why the 3 IB downgraded Dayang only when its performance is the best and its management is so confident that the earnings are sustainable premised on its 3 billion order book? Why dont they downgraded carimin or penergy ???
Is it a concident these 3 IBs targetted dayang to downgrade when the other 2 counters do not even have future earning visibility ?
2019-03-22 08:46 | Report Abuse
The Malaysian government is short of money . THat is the reason why Petronas is asked by Dr M and LGE to pay special dividend so that the GST refund can be made to our local companies . Petronas is under pressure to deliver more profits and dividend . Since Malaysia is not an Opec member , Petronas is not obliged to follow the Opec to control production . They will keep increasing the number of rigs to make them operational .
Petronas need to keep pumping more and more oil and dayang will be kept busy will more Scheduled maintainance , more lump sum orders and more marine vessel charter business in 2019 , 2020 , 2021 until 2023.
2019-03-22 08:33 | Report Abuse
Petronas has a total of 39 rigs . In 2018 , it only operates 14 . THey intend to increase from 14 to 24 in 2019 . They may increase more in 2020 when oil price recover further hitting more than US 75 per barrel . Dayang will benefit . Besides ,Dayang also went to other country like Turkmenistan to secure more jobs . In 2018 ,Dayang got a RM 400 million contract from an oil company in Turmenistan .
2019-03-22 08:29 | Report Abuse
slts , how do you know it wont comes true?
2019-03-22 08:03 | Report Abuse
No one disagrees including the IB's analysts that 2019 earnings will be much better than 2018 . Petronas CEO has publicly stated that they will increase the number of operational rigs from 14 to between 24 to 28 in 2019 . Such increase will require more scheduled maintainance and also lump sum reburnishments and construction . In 2018 , the scheduled rates averaging RM 120 million per qtr except Q4 of which the revenue was not captured although work has been done and cost has been booked . If Q4 scheduled rates is captured in Q1 2019 , the total revenue from scheduled rates alone will be more than RM 200 million . Assuming lump sum revenue is half of Q4's 260 million ) , then the total revenue would be more than RM 300 million not to mention revenue from Vessel Charter . With Petronas increasing the number of operational rigs to minimum of 24 , we expect lump sum work will not be lesser than 2018 when the number of rigs was increased from 9 to 14 . Hence we expect the Q1 result to be better than Q4 barring any unforeseen circumstances .THe scheduled rates will also be better in 2019 than 2018 correspond with the increase of rigs to 24 . My 2 cts worth of opinion.
2019-03-20 09:16 | Report Abuse
Let's take a conservative prediction of Q1 19 result by assuming the average eps of last three qtrs . The last 3 qtrs eps were 10.13 , 5.05 and 4.03 sen respectively . The average is 6.4 sen. THe 4 qtrs rolling eps will be 6.4 ,10.13, 5.05 and 4.03 sen . Total eps is 25.6 sen. Assuming PE of 8, this will give a price of more than RM 2 . This is only a very very conservative estimate when all analysts agreed that 2019 earnings will be better than 2018 . With the strong confidence from Dayang management based on their strong 3 billion order book , I believe the results will be better than the conservative estimate.
2019-03-20 08:38 | Report Abuse
It looks like the IB's authors are newbies who do not know some historical facts of some stocks which has rised to 10x within 2 to 3 years due to semicon and electronic booms or recovery . Their conclusions are based purely on " Dayang share prices went up too fast , overplayed , went up more than 200 % , Therefore please take profit ." They did not know that stocks like JHM , Penta, Inari had gone up 10x within 2 to 3 years from 2015 to 2018 . What is 200 % up if the whole industry has recovered and stock are backed with proven recovery with 3 successive qtrs plus the strong confidence from the management in future earnings premised on strong order book ?
2019-03-20 08:03 | Report Abuse
Fully agree with you thurston. None of the stock analyst can articulate in factual manners on arriving at their conclusion . Their respective one page write up is just a substandard opinions of their own without any basis . Worst still some of the report contradicted Dayang's management report on earning sustainability . Gone are the days when analysts can write their detailed report with a few years projections with detailed numbers on revenue , earnings, PE ration etc based on inputs from the company management 's assumptions .
2019-03-20 07:52 | Report Abuse
Kenanga's analyst report is contradicting Dayang's own management report on future earnings in their prospects . In the last qtr's ( Q4 2018 ) report under the section on prospect, it was stated that " barring any unforeseen circumstances , we are optimistic that the strong earning trend will be SUSTAINABLE premised on our fairly sizeable order book of RM 3 billion to last us at least until 2023. Why Kenanga reported that the Q4 18 earning is not sustainable ? I believe Dayang management report more than Kenanga report .
2019-03-19 21:34 | Report Abuse
Please read carefully the last paragraph of Hong Leong's analyst report which states that " Apart from the RM 2.9 billion order book, Dayang is expected to receive further lump sum orders from its clients . We also understand that some of the VOs were carried out in 2018 . The costs of these PO's have been booked in 2018. The profits of these VOs will be booked in 1H 2019 pending approval from its clients " . What it means is that Q1 or Q2 will book profits which were not captured in 2018 although work has been done and its cost had been accounted for in 2018. THis last paragraph should be read as positive rather than negative . It implied better results ahead in 1H 2019 .
2019-03-13 17:30 | Report Abuse
Naim went up 30 s or 25 % today . Naim own about 27 % Dayang and 10 % Perdana . Dayang own 60 % of Perdana and has a paper gain of about RM 70 million just from today's 15s increase in Perdana price .
2019-03-13 15:26 | Report Abuse
dayang which own 60 percent of perdana will gain the most from today s price rally of perdana . A 40 petcent gain .
2018-12-31 19:46 | Report Abuse
my selection
Airasia 30 %
Supermx 20 %
Tongher 10 %
Chinwell 10 %
MFCB 10 %
MI 10 %
Vitrox 10 %
2018-12-02 14:01 | Report Abuse
Trump thought that he can use the same tactic as Bush senior did to Japan in 1990. Xi is not Jiang or Hu . Japan suffered zero growth for almost 30 years when she had no choice but gave in to the demamd of US.
Both Trump and Xi know this trade war will damage both sides.
2018-12-01 19:44 | Report Abuse
Airasia is the leader of low cost airline which won 10 times as the best low cost airline . When you invest in any industry , try to invest the number one or number two . Just like Glove makers , the two leaders are Harta and Topglove . Both were more than 20 baggers since their inception. With the price of crude going down by more than 25 % since Oct , there is a great cost saving for Airasia. Besides , Airasia can easily pass the higher fuel cost to the customer if it wants . An increase of a few % of airfare and from the ancilliary business , customers will easily accept such increase . I am a regular traveller from Pg to JB since 2018.
I have been seeing the price increase from the minimum of RM 19 to the current minium of RM 69 . This is a 3x increase within 10 years . Will Airasia be the equivalent of Nestle , Panamy, DLady or Ajinomoto ?
2018-12-01 19:31 | Report Abuse
Why I buy Airasia ? Just to quote cold Eye 5 criteria
1. Growth - There is a consistent growth for Airasia for the past 10 years
2. Cash Flow - The cash flow for airasia is superberb .
3. PER - Good PER of less than 10 even taking out the one off incomes from the sale of AAC, Ground handling and Espedia
4. ROE - Good ROE of more than 30 %
5. Dividend Yield - More than 10 % DY ( inclusive of SD ) .
- Airasia should be able to pay at least 10 sen even
without the SD . THis is more than 3 % DY .
Not many stocks in KLSE can meet the 5 criteria .
2018-11-06 11:39 | Report Abuse
I agreed with Jack Ma . The US had been advocating Free Press, Free Speech, Free Trades ,Free Competitions in various field for decades. Now, all of a sudden,.Trump put on the reversed gear and imposing tariffs . This resulted in tit for tat trade wars. Really stupid.
2018-09-17 14:18 | Report Abuse
US preached free trade but hypocritically do another. Trump not only imposed tariff on Chinese.goods but on goods from other nations like canada and other Europen countries. US huge debts is due to their own doings. In the last 40 years,US was busy bombing other countries with trillions spending ,china quietly build up its economy and competencies.US thought she can China like how she did to Japan in the early 90 forcing Japan to strengthen its currency until it lose its competetiveness. China will.not be so stupid to repeat the mistake made by japan.
2018-07-06 11:04 | Report Abuse
better cakap " pakai macam tak pakai "
2018-06-30 14:28 | Report Abuse
Najib is pushing away responisbility and accountability . During the interview with Reuter , he claimed that he is totally unaware of the transactions in 1MDB accounts . When peoples made funs of him saying that as Chairman of 1MDB , he is unaware of what happened to 1MDB but he was fully aware when his chocolates were stolen , now he is trying to say that peoples has misquoted him . Now he is saying he is aware of all the transactions in 1MDB but not aware of what happened after the transactions . So with multibillions losses , who is responsible ? the board of directors , the CEO s ? When the rakyat and other peoples not associated with 1MDB knew so much about the money laundered , as PM and also Chairman of 1MDB , you dont care and decided not to know ??? Did you asked the MACC , police or Bank negara to investigate and catch the crooks ? In fact , you stop everyone from questioning the 1MDB losses ? You are in fact a party of the whole scam .
2018-06-19 17:27 | Report Abuse
Top glove just released its result . Profit YOY increase by 51 % . Fantastic result . It will help pull up stock prices of other glove makers .
2018-06-19 11:01 | Report Abuse
This is my third time buying Supermx. The first time was in 2008/2009, the second time in 2012 and third time 2 months ago .
Supermx used to be number 2 of glove companies behind top glove .
Supermx reached its peak in 2011 after its share price went up 6x compared with 2008 prices . Kossan started to overtake Supermx and pushed supermx to number 3 spot when supermx run into production problems a few years ago . At the same time , Hartalega came in with its nitrile gloves and become number two overtaking both Kossan and supermx . Supermx was punished for many years with low PE due to production issues plus political issues . It started to turn around 9 months ago with its eps of around 5 sen per qtr. I believe the coming qtr eps will be also around 5 sen . This will make the annualised eps of 20 sen . Because of China shutting down of glove factories which polluted the environment , the demand exceeded supply and the market and fund managers are giving PE's of more than 28 to the top 3 glove companies . With the turnaround of supermx , I believe a PE of 25 is a fair number for Supermx . This will give a price of RM5 . The good news on Supermx being the first Malaysian contact lens company to be given a licence to sell to Japan will add another feather to the cap to Supermx . Will the market give a PE of 30 to Supermx with this good news ?
2018-06-17 21:01 | Report Abuse
Thanks KC Chong .
The young investors tend to underestimate the annual return of 18 % .They want super fast return like those in the money games ( promise of 20 % return per month ). More than 90 % of investors got burned due to unrealistic promise of such returns . Many are inpatient and can't see the power of compounding . USing the rule of 72 , it takes 4 years ( 4x18 = 72) for the initial capital to double . Take RM 170k as initial capital , 4 years later the RM 170k becomes RM 340 k. A 20 years of consistent 18% return per year compounding will yield 32 x ( 2 to the power of 5 ) of original capital . It is a solid RM 5.44 million after 20 years of investment with RM 170 k initial capital . If you select good stocks ( slim chance of losing money ) to invest with an average 4 % dividend yield , what it takes is for you to make a 14 % capital gain only to get a cumulative 18 % . If you study the records of last 15 to 20 years for Dutch Lady , Nestle , Panamy , Public Banks , the top 4 gloves companies and the few electronic and semiconductor companies , they had such returns . The key words are "dont lose money "and be patience . The Malay saying " Sedikit sedikit , lama lama jadi bukit " is the best proverb to describe such investment .
2018-06-17 19:46 | Report Abuse
Trump hit at Opec for artificially inflate the oil prices . Oil inventory is all over the place including fully loaded ships on the sea . TRump also complain that oil prices in the last one or two months are too high . We expect oil price to come down to a more reasonable levels . This will benefit airasia .
2018-06-17 19:31 | Report Abuse
3iii, I do have my fair share of buying wrong stocks like Megan Media and Protasco . I lost more than 60k on Megan media alone . These stocks appear to make huge profits with low PE . When their cash started to go down unreasonably , we need to cut loss quickly. Fortunately ,such stocks are a small percentage of what I bought . THe other stock which was my favourite for the last 15 years was Uchitech which has consistently deliver good dividend .
2018-06-17 11:30 | Report Abuse
Buying fundamentally good stocks are very important for consistent returns . Warren Buffet;s first rule is not to lose money in the first place . Good stocks with good records should be the key selections for first timers as the risk is very small. I started investing in 1998 during the once in a life time big crash when the CI index was between 250 to 600 .I started with RM 170 k using my housing overdraft . Stock investment had given me an average of 18 % ( inclusive of dividend ) annually compounded return . I bought Public Finance , Public bank,Malakoff , KMLoong , WCT , MOX , Maybank, Supermax , Elsoft , Inari ,Penta ,Airasia , Superln . I do not keep the stocks forever . I had sold most of them when it hit my targets or when the quarterly result turn negative . Some stocks gave a return of more than 20 % if you had hold it for more than 10 years . Stocks like Elsoft, Inari, Public Bank, Penta ,Top Glove , Supermx, Kossans , Hartalega ,JHM are good examples .
2018-06-16 16:40 | Report Abuse
The debt of RM 1 trillion is real not an excuse .
2018-05-05 12:09 | Report Abuse
From the numerous whatsapp and youtubes postings on the overwhelming responses from the rakyat on PH ceramah nationwide , the desires for change is very obvious . The change is good for the country . No party can rule forever .
2018-03-11 13:10 | Report Abuse
No one is 100 % right in stock selection . IF you are 70 to 80 % right , you are considered very good already. I started active stock investments since 1998 during the biggest downturn in Malaysian history . I m still active in stock investment with average return of about 18 % per annum .
I made many blunders too . You must hit few big jackpots during your investments periods. Jackpots like Supermx in 2010, Inari , Elsoft ,Penta, KESMI , Hengyuan in 2016 /2017 will make you rich if you sailang .
2018-03-09 11:55 | Report Abuse
Finally , more and more investors noticed the value of Petronm's 600 Station's retail business which are the same as PetDagangan . These retailed business act as a good against the more volatile refinery business . It also cushion against the once in three year refinery shutdown which affect both revenue and profits. Petronm started leading the price increase against HY since yesterday . IF history were to repeat , Petronm may lead HY by as much as RM 3.50 .
2018-03-08 22:42 | Report Abuse
JohnVision , agree with you .
2018-03-08 19:29 | Report Abuse
Petronm prices are higher than HengYuan now . I am accumulating .
Buy on weakness .
2018-02-27 20:10 | Report Abuse
The truth is finally out . Future Eyes prediction is way out . Hengyuan started to pay tax and its earning is very volatile and unstable . The eps of 61.8 sen for Q4 is only half of Q3 eps . Comparatively , Petronm earning is much much more stable although it was slightly ( 6 %) lower than q3. As I said many many times , Petronm has a sure make money petrol retailing business ( more than 580 petrol stations ) which do retailings like PetDagangan. The earnings from this retailed business is more predictable and helps to cushion the volatile earnings from refinery . I think Petronm is a safer bet long term .
2018-02-24 12:01 | Report Abuse
The propoaed rm 14 billion investment will enabled petron to have SUPER EXPONENTIAL EPS GROWTH to RM 2.4 billion.per year. This is 6x the current yearly earning. On one hand some investors worry about huge capital spending , on other hand some investors worry about no earning growth.
There is no free lunch. Can someone ask Tomy Fernandes not to spend billions buying new planes and expect him to deliver exponential growth.
2018-02-24 11:53 | Report Abuse
If you compare petron eps growth with cyclical semincon stock Kesmi which had eps of 36 s , 71 s and 102 s for 2015, 2016 and 2017 , petron earnings were relatively higher . Besides Kesmi DY is less than 1 %. Petron retailed earnings are much more stBle tham Kesmi
2018-02-24 11:24 | Report Abuse
Petron eps for 2015 , 2016.amd 2017 were
82 sen , 90 sen and 150.sen
Arent such eps growth rate considered exponential?
Petron has also achieved net cash status in 2017.
It also rewarded shareholders with 2.2 % dividend yield.
With yesterday price , the PE is less than 8 .
2018-02-22 22:27 | Report Abuse
In Malaysia , the 3 largest petrol retailing business are Shell Petrol Retailing , Petronas Dagangan and Petron . Why compare Petron with Hengyuan instead of Petron with PetDag ? Petron 's 3 year eps from 2015 to 2017 were 82 sen, 90sen and 150 sen which are superbed . Petronas Dagangan eps for 2015 was 79.5 sen , 95 sen and 127 sen ( 3 qtrs ) .
Petronm share price is half of Petronas Dagangan although the eps were quite close .
2018-02-14 16:55 | Report Abuse
I bought more than 100 lots of Protasco in 2014 due to its good eps and dividend yield . When the legal dispute surfaced between the major shareholders and more than RM 100 millions was at stake , I decided to sell all my shares with losses . I do not want to know who is right and who is wrong . I have lost confidence with the CEO and its top management . Ultimately ,the CEO has to be responsible for the company financials at the end be it due to fraud or bad judgement .
2018-02-14 12:41 | Report Abuse
While FA and TA has a clear methodology which enable investors to make decisions based on very objective quantitative numbers , " business sense " is more qualitative and judgemental . Good businessmen usually possess such " business sense " and they are the ones who can " see " the futures better than others . Some of these senses cannot be taught . These are the peoples who are more bold and take bigger risks . In return , they are rewarded multiple times more than others . These peoples may also end up badly bitten or even end up in bankruptcy if that sense turn out to be wrong .
2018-02-13 22:20 | Report Abuse
If Pakatan wins the election , why should Tun Dr M wants to go back to UMNO which must have been badly bitten ? The way UMNO leaders treated him in the last 3 years had made Tun realised that UMNO is beyond repair .
He will make a better name for himself if Pakatan win the election .As new PM he can undo whatever wrong he did when he was UMNO president . I think he will do the 3 things .
1. Restore Meritocracy in every aspects of public institutions .
2. Abolish OSA
3. PM post and Minister of FInance post must be held by different persons
and put it in the constitution .
He will be plain stupid to go back to UMNO
2018-02-13 21:43 | Report Abuse
I predict that Q4 17 eps at between 45 sen to 50 sen based on the followings
1. There will be inventory gain due to higher crude oil price on 31st Dec vs 30th September . A price difference of about US 10 per barrel
2. THe best ever crack spread of more than US 9 compared with previous few qtrs
3. The EPS of the last 4 rolling qtrs were 39.30 sen , 33.70 sen , 40.20 sen and 41.71 sen . Petronm can still delivered 33.70 sen in Q2 17 even though there was inventory loss .
4. Generally , Q4 is the best qtrs for retailed sales of petrol to consumers .
With Q4 at more than 45sen , we expect the total 2017 eps to be at > 158 sen . This translate into a PE of 6.9 at today price of RM 10.98 .
There are two Research houses set targetted prices of 16.50 and 14.50 respectively .
2018-02-06 20:45 | Report Abuse
Many Petronm investors seems to be worried about the RM 14 billion investments which tends to make Petronm in serious debts . Oil Refinery is a capital intensive business just like Airlines which needs to invest heavily in new planes when it expands . In 2016, Airasia had RM 11 billion debts and churning out eps of about 60 sen to 70 sen per year for 2016 and 2017 respectively. THe current PE of Airasia is about 8 ( very similar to Petronm ) . There are at least 10 analysts who recommended a buy for Airasia with the latest from Public research at RM 5.40 , DBS at RM 4.80 and Macqureine at RM 6.30 . THere gave a target PE of about 10 . If Petronm invest 14 billion and has an estimated earning before tax of RM 2.4 billion ( US 600 million) , the eps after tax is at least RM 6 per year . A PE of 5 will give Petronm share price at RM 30 .
2018-02-05 23:01 | Report Abuse
limcm , dont feel lonely . They were attracted by Hengyuan's q3 extraordinary result which was at record high . When you study the fundamentals of a company , we should look at not only the future but past track records . Petronm's eps for the last 3 years were more consistent and predictable . It had never lose money since 2015 unlike Hengyuan which lost money in one of the qtrs in 2015 and one in 2016 . In fact q2 2017 was as low as 28 sen . Petronm has a low margin ( 2 to 3 %) retailed business but very high revenue and consistent profit. If Petronm goes into the high margin Petrol Chemicals products like Petronas Chemicals which has a margin of more than 20% with the coming 14b investment, Petronm will be more like Nestle and Panamy which has a consistent margin of more than 10 % . We need to be patient .
Stock: [DAYANG]: DAYANG ENTERPRISE HOLDINGS BHD
2019-03-24 17:36 | Report Abuse
For retailers , I do not advise using margin to trade in stocks . Stocks prices are subjected to rumours , world economy , IB's opinions and other political factors which are unpredictable . Even good stocks with good fundamentals are subjected to such fluctuations . One thing for sure , if a stock with good fundamental plus good growth in the industry ,the price will move up eventually correspond with its earnings . Dayang's 2018 eps are -2.2 sen, 4.03 sen ,5.05, and 10.13 sen for the last 4 qtrs . The total rolling 4 qtrs eps is 17 sen . This gives a PE of 7.82 at the price of RM1.33 . The last 4 qtrs revenue and earnings are in ascending order .
With the confidence from its management that the earnings are sustainable , we can conservatively estimated that the coming Q1 eps to be 7 to 8sen. This will gives a rolling 4 qtr eps of 26 sen. At the last closing price of RM 1.33, its PE is will be 5 . Moving forward to Q2 and Q3 which are better seasons in terms of earnings , the rolling total eps will get better and better . I will keep my stocks for at least another 9 months . In my opinion , it is a good bet when no one deny that 2019 will be better than 2018 .This includes the opinions of the 3 IBs who has caused the 20 % drop of dayang price within just a week .