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2021-10-02 16:57 | Report Abuse
Gloves demand will remain Strong. Power crunch in China will slow normalization of ASPS.
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https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/10/02/demand-for-gloves-likely-to-remain-strong
2021-10-01 21:10 | Report Abuse
jgc , kenanga is actually using a margin of 17 % (16.6 % to be exact ) instead of 25%。 See page 3 of 7 of kenanga report.
PAT = 28 x 34 x 0.8 x 0.166 = 530 m
Kenanga should use 42 b capacity.instead of 34 . FY 2023 start from.mid of CY 2022 and end in mid CY 2023. The average of 36 bil and 48 bil will give 42 billions. Then
PAT = 28 x 42 x 0.8 x 4.2 x 0.25 = 988 m
Kenanga tgt PAT of 530 mil is too low. In fact the consensus PAT in.kenanga report itself is 878 m.
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jgc147 Kenanga TP is based on 12x FY23 NP(530m)
This is based on Rev 3160m / ASP 28 / Utilization 80% /Margin 25%
Issue is with revenue projection - capacity is assumed at 34Bln -
Why do they not assume the planned 48Bln in FY23
01/10/2021 7:37 PM
2021-10-01 10:26 | Report Abuse
Tonee, your 48 b assumption is for CY 2023 . In FY 2023 which start in mid.next year, the average capacity will be (36 +48 )/2 = 42 b . The assumption of 25 % margin for OEM is slightly on the high side. A 20% will be more realistic . This will give a mfg profit of 790 millions. The disribution profit is about 50 % of mfg profit based on last 5 qtr numbers .The total profit will then be 790 x 1.5 = 1185 millions or EPS of 43.6 sen. If you give a PE of 12 , then the price will be 5.23 。The huge cash in hand also has value . By FY 2023 , the cash in.hand.in mid CY 2022 will be about 2.754 billion assuming supermx pay 15 s dividend per qtr for the next 4 qtrs and paying off the balance cost of 764 millions for 48 b capacity.expansion . The 2754 millions is worth RM 1 per share. The IB did not take this into consideration.also .
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Yup pjseow, if we just take a simplified calculation base on their assumption as an OEM entity it would be 48b/1000 x 28 x 4.2 x 0.8 x 0.25 = RM1.13b PAT or EPS 0.41 x12 = RM 4.98 TP base on FY2023 est. If base on OBM profit, then fair value closer to RM 6.0. What do u think?
01/10/2021 9:03 AM
2021-09-30 23:31 | Report Abuse
Tonee, I defintely do not agree. A drop.from.ASP of US 30 to US 28 should not have a drop.of EPS.from 56 sen to 19 sen. Kenanga drop the blended margin from 25 to 15 . In.a way, it ignored the distribution profit . I think.they use the capacity of 36 billions. The FY 2020 has an ASP of US 25 , a capacity of 24 b and nett margin of 24.7 %. The PAT of FY 2020 was 526 millions . How can FY 2023 which has a capacity of 36 b and assumed ASP of US 28 has.a projected PAT of 530.7 millions ?
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pjseow, u agree ka with Kenanga TP RM 2.35 ? base on 12X FY23E EPS base on USD 28 utilisation of rate 80% and margin 25%. I think Kenanga still using 26b capacity rather than 48b. What u think?
30/09/2021 10:48 PM
2021-09-30 21:52 | Report Abuse
Tonee., fully.agreed the current power crunch will last till end of winter. This power crunch will.force them to raise prices 。LNG prices was also up by more than doubled. China glove makers will.lose money if they compete with no or low margin.
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ToneeFa The ASP drop has been exacerbated by China glove factory expansion. However, with the rising energy cost in China and political friction with CAUKUS, China glove threat should be waning, and ASP should recover or stabilize ard USD35-40. SpmX shouid see new contracts with UK NHS and US healthcare system soon.
30/09/2021 9:29 PM
2021-09-30 14:41 | Report Abuse
IM777, If I.buy.a good property at a.certain price which give me good rental returns of 10 % or more, do you.consider I lose money if someone else buy and sell similar property at lower prices than me ? Then when another seller willing to sell at even lower prices at a big discount, I.decided to buy it because.the.rental yield become higher , do you consider I.lose money ?
2021-09-30 12:21 | Report Abuse
Djoker, I am also waiting at below 2.00 to average down further. Buy for good DY.
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DJoker89 Losers are so keen and still waiting rm2.01
Hahahaha...
30/09/2021 11:55 AM
2021-09-30 09:04 | Report Abuse
The recent steep hike in.coal prices has resulted in many power plants in.China to limit supply of electricity to Chinese factories in.more than.15 provinces. This will increase the cost of production for gloves made in China..The.power crunch in.China is.big news . The steep hike in.natural gas recently will also excerbate the production.cost in.China. Malaysia being.LNG producers will have cost advantage . Natural gas represent 15 % of glove production.cost. The China threat is over.blown. Stay tune. The IBs will.sing a different tunes later.
1 month ago | Report Abuse
The FY 2020 , FY2021 and FY.2022 are considered
Super or Extraordinay years.for.glove.makers. Supermx has already.made 526 millions in FY 2020 and another 3815 millions in FY2021. Based on the outstanding deposits or prepayments of 631 millions in.last QR , supermx still have about more than 2 billions of OLD orders.which had lock in ""old ""ASPS. I.projected FY 2022 PAT of about 2000 millions. So the total PATs for the 3 extraordinary years are about 6341 millions or 6.341 billions. This super profit is 4X of what.supermx made for the last 20 years.
What can supermx do with this huge cash ?
1. Use it for capacity.expansion . So far.1.39 billions has been committed to double the capacity to 48.billions. This 1.39 b.should be able to generate a ROA of more than.10 %.
2. Use it to pay.for dividends . A total of 31.8 sen or 865 millions has been.paid out this year. I will talk about DY in.my next topics of Coldeye stock selection criteria.
3. Keep as.Cash.in.hand temporarily to earn FD.rate or for future M and A which can potentially earn higher returns.
It is a huge.mistake for IBs not to take such cash into consideration.for their valuations.
1 month ago | Report Abuse
Based on Margma projected average growth rate of 12 % increase in.demand per year and 20 % growth in capacities , demand will still be more than supply until end of 2023.
2021 2022 2023
Demand 500 b 560 b 629 b
Supply 420 b 503 b 609 b
The room for growth in demand in future is still
huge because the average per capita glove usage is at 50 only . The average per capita usage for the developed countries like North America , Europe and Japan.is above 200 while the rest if the world are still.at 25. The population in the developed countries is only 15 % of the world 8 billions. Both developed and the rest of the world usage will continue to grow at 12 to 15 % per year .
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Benhobenhobenho It proved a very strong demand for gloves as demand continue to outstrip supply globally.
29/09/2021 6:52 PM
2021-11-08 15:45 | Report Abuse
Glove makers need 25000 workers urgently to fulfil the strong demand from now until end of 2022.
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https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2021/09/28/margma-rubber-glove-industry-needs-25000-workers-urgently/
2021-09-29 14:35 | Report Abuse
MM, Supermx pre pandemic FY 2019
Cash : Nett debt 250 million
Capacity : 22 billion p.a
Nett margin 8.5 %
PAT : 124.Millions
Business model : OEM 30 % , many.middlemen like dealers , agents ,
FY2021
Cash : Nett cash 3.5 billions
Capacity : 36 billions
Nett Margin : 55 %
PAT : 3815 millions
Business model.: OEM.2 % , no middlemen like agents and dealers , 58.% sell direct to.final customers and 40 % to independent.distributors.
There is a world of difference
2021-09-29 12:06 | Report Abuse
MM , Supermx has just made record profits of 3.815 billions in FY2021 with an EPS of 140 sen . It has a nett cash in hand of 3.5 billions or RM 1.3 per share. FY 2021 Dividend yield is also 14 %. Nett profit margin of FY 2021 was more than 50 %. The current PE Ratio is only 1.66 . This fundamental is the best in Bursa. Name me one company which has such.good fundamental .
Dont BS .
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MoneyMakers Price is determined by fundamentals which is known very2 bad right now
2021-09-29 11:16 | Report Abuse
Glove makers.need a lot of workers to keep up with rising demands and new expanded capacities.
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https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/09/29/malaysias-glove-industry-appeals-for-foreign-labour-intake/2009214
2021-09-28 16:24 | Report Abuse
Harta up 49 sen to 6 .00 , pre ex dividend price.
2021-09-28 15:50 | Report Abuse
Containers shortage, Escalating freight charges and power crunch are affecting.China exports. This situation will continue for the next few months.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/container-ships-now-piling-anchorages-201330706.html
2021-09-28 15:17 | Report Abuse
MM , I say thank you to you. Why merajuk? By the way, what happen to your shorting buddies ? You are now alone ah ?
2021-09-28 15:13 | Report Abuse
Maridien2 is joking lah. Without kidney cannot survive lah. What he meant.is die die.also must buy if 65 sen. For me I will sell all my other stocks to buy supermx even if it is 1.50.
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Benhobenhobenho @maridien2, ayoho, hope this just a joke
28/09/2021 3:05 PM
2021-09-28 14:46 | Report Abuse
MM , I dont.wait for dividend payment date. Thank you for helping me to average diwn to 3.00 . Will.continue to average down with future dividends.
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MoneyMakers Nice green day b4 friday dump (div xdate)
28/09/2021 1:44 PM
2021-09-28 08:57 | Report Abuse
Would you sell a money generating bag worth rm 700 for rm 2300 with rm 1300 inside and will generate rm 800 this year and rm 320 every year in subsequent years ?
OR
Will you buy such money generating bag for rm 2300 if someone offer to you ?
2021-09-28 08:47 | Report Abuse
Yup Tonee ,Yesterday volume is only 0.33% of the total shares of the company. Such.low volumes does not represent heavy selling. It is not like 5 to 10 % of total shares transacted. Such low volume can be easily manipulated.
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ToneeFa @Ryan83 Heavy selling even with low RSS volumes as short term traders cut loss and local institutions keep disposing glove shares
27/09/2021 9:00 PM
Today mainly right hand pocket sell down to left hand pocket
27/09/2021 10:54 PM
2021-09-27 17:38 | Report Abuse
So what is your estimated PAT for coming QR ?
500 mils or 550 millions or 600 mils ?
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monetary Q4 2020 customer's deposit 892mil translated into Q1 2021 PAT 790mil. Q4 2021 customer's deposit 631mil will translate to how much PAT? Coming Qr will be a big surprise.
27/09/2021 5:09 PM
2021-09-26 20:42 | Report Abuse
MM , if you still.cannot get my message, let me tell you an American joke.
One day , Bill Clinton felt very bored and he decided to take a walk in.a red light area. He saw a.beautiful and sexy.young hooker looking for customers. He asked her " How much ? . She replied ""300 dollar"". The stingy Bill told her " NO NO , It is too expensive. During the pre pandemic , the price is only 65 dollar" . The hooker felt offended and ignored him.
Then one day after the country opened up , Bill bring along Pelosi and took.a walk along the same red light area. The hooker spotted and recognised him. She shouted at him and pointing at Pelosi from far "" Hey , This is the type you will get for 65 dollar ".
2021-09-26 20:24 | Report Abuse
MM , your 65 to 75 sen price of supermx at pre pandemic is a supermx with only 22 billions capacity and in nett debt position. The EPS then was only 4.6 sen . By middle of next year, supermx will have a capcity of 36 b fully paid up and nett cash of 4.7 billions or RM 1.7 a share. FY 2023 is projected to make 882 millions a year by the IBs. The EPS is 32 sen. Who is so dumb to sell at 65 sen ?
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MoneyMakers Tunafa Should be 65sen by Q1 nxt yr (QR profit regularised)..i may even retire if reach 1.5 by year end
26/09/2021 7:41 PM
2021-09-26 14:57 | Report Abuse
In our form 5 physics , when you study optics, there is a difference between REAL image versus Virtual Image . Real image can be captured on a screen while virtual image cant.
Cash in hand is Real.Money . You can see it , touch it , feel it , use it and distribute it . Markets give extremely high PE s to.some semicon stocks based on projections which may or may not come true. The future cash in hand is imaginery or virtual which is not real money. You cannot feel it , touch it ,use it and distribute it . You can only fantasize because it is virtual. There is a risk that the huge projections with PE of more than 30 may not come true.
2021-09-26 14:37 | Report Abuse
JP Morgan gave a better rating to Kossan than Topflove due to its 26 % of Cash in hand wrt to its.mkt cap compared with only 3 % in Topglove . Supermx.has cash in hand of 60 % its mkt cap.
Kossan has 1.6 b nett.cash while supermx has more than double kossan nett cash of 3.5 b.
2021-09-25 12:15 | Report Abuse
Haha, while some from.glove lovers turned to the dark side, I am seeing more glove adversaries got ""baptised "" with the BIG DISCOUNTS and become glove "Believers" . Amen. GO ,IM and MM , pls give more discounts . More peoples will be baptised to become glove Believers. 人是很现实的。
2021-09-25 11:33 | Report Abuse
GO, Whether Old.School or New School as long as can make.money in the end is a good school. Meanwhile enjoy the offer with Big Discounts.
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GlovesOff pjs you belong to the outdated FA old schools ... wise to sell w gains from the hype last year but double the st**idity to not only give back gains but w/a blowout PPL haha ... your 4xx avg surely is not LOW and not JUMBO SALES
25/09/2021 9:59 AM
2021-09-25 09:25 | Report Abuse
GO , both stock gurus advise Contrarian approach in.stock investment ." Be Greedy when peoples are fearful" . If we can buy with 20 % discount, there is no reason not to buy when there is a 50 % discount. In 2008, When the press asked Warren Buffet his opinion about the stock meltdown , he told them it was.a JUMBO SALES for him. In life dont turn down an offer with big discounts.
Down trend is my friend when I am on buying.spree . Up trend is my friend when I am on selling spree. BUY LOW SELL HIGH. BE PATIENT. Keep for 1 to 3 years.
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GlovesOff @pjseow... you claimed you're veteran in stock market yada2 , which bags the Million Dollar Qs , are you so stucked in the gloves rabbithole ... that you didn't know UPTREND IS YOUR FRIEND ???
25/09/2021 5:22 AM
2021-09-24 23:07 | Report Abuse
Tonee, based on IB s consensus projections, the cash in hand per share at the end of FY 2024 will reach RM 2.30 after paying off the balance cost for the 22.4 billions capacity expansion. The RM 2.30 is today s closing price. That means we are effecting getting a FREE supermx share at prepandemic level but with doubling of capacity. It is too irresistible not to top up. If Supermx management distribute 60 sen per year for 3 years , there is still a balance cash in.hand of 50 sen per share or about 1.36 billion . My tgt is to get my average down to below 3.00.
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Good move my friend. Hv to admit I also top up some today, as I noticed TG got good support today, and shortist couldn't suppressed it. It turned out that WC and family was heavily topping up too. That's why our No.1 villain today was almost apologetic and begging us not to blame him for his blunder on BS about the 65sen premature ejaculation fantasy.
24/09/2021 10:29 PM
2021-09-24 21:59 | Report Abuse
Tonee, you are my good friend. My answer is yes. No fake top up. You can understand why I top up after I write my second part on.Supermx Dividend Yield.
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hey pjseow, u top up on SpmX today ka?
24/09/2021 9:37 PM
2021-09-24 19:54 | Report Abuse
GO , Why so emotional after i picked up the key points from Coldeye 10 mins video? Why are you so selective on picking.up the few seconds message from him that "" many glove players were joining the bangawon and he forsee that the supply will .be more than demand.~ This point is nothing new . The naysayers has been saying this since 6 months ago.
I only pick his other key points. I also did not pick up his warning on.semicon which.he warned that the failure rates are very high. Investors should be selective and careful .I also did not pick up his call to buy banking stocks which can.give dividend of potentially 8 to 10 % . This is better than.putting.money in the bank.which give only 2 % interest.
My message to you. Dont be too selective in.picking up his messages.
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GlovesOff pjseow really MOU TAK GAO . coldeye said 1985 gloves heydays ask to be careful now as supply outstrip demand ... look at coldeye's Genetec ... somemore thrash Tech
jom bet spmx touches 2 before breaking even your 4.90 ....
these Heroes want to fight rss with their unlimited topups
2021-09-24 15:35 | Report Abuse
GloveOff, Thanks for forwarding the video. You understand Mandarin? His key takeaways are.
1. Take.contrarian.approach
Buy when peoples are fearful . Buy low and buy cheap.
2. Keep for 1 to 3 years or medium.term view.
3. Looks for good fundamental.stocks which can give high dividend yield.
4. Gloves industry are growing industry. At between 8 to 11 %.
5. Gloves super.high earnings period will be over. ASP will come down to stabilised level.
6. Br careful of technology stock .
I.agree with his views above.
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GlovesOff pjseow since you idolise coldeye so much nah refer to this (minute 9) don't selective watching o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SxOuNfEMKM
24/09/2021 2:55 PM
GlovesOff see how you decipher this ...
24/09/2021 2:55 PM
GlovesOff is this the same coldeye or hoteye, warmeye haha
24/09/2021 2:56 PM
2021-09-24 14:51 | Report Abuse
MM, what happened? I waited and waited for below 2.20 but it went up instead. I have no choice but to buy 100k first at 2.30 . Next week can get below 2.00 ?
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investmalaysia7777 want invest in glove also buy harta la.
24/09/2021 1:31 PM
2021-09-24 13:51 | Report Abuse
IM777 , not at such.supermx price. Let the numbers do the talking. Will.show you later after I average down to less than 3 .
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investmalaysia7777 want invest in glove also buy harta la.
24/09/2021 1:31 PM
2021-09-24 12:19 | Report Abuse
Coldeye 冷眼latest book "" The Ultimate formula "" advocated 6 criteria on selecting good stocks. He added another one from his previous 5 criterias . He still maintained GROWTH as the MOST IMPORTANT criteria followed by Dividend Yield, PE Ratio and Profit Margin, ROE and Cash Flow. For easy.remembrance , they are G D P and P R C. I had elaborated on Supermx Fantastic.growth rate of 63 % per year from FY 2019 to FY 2023 at normalised state with pre pandemic ASPs. I will talk about Dividend yield in.my.next comment.
2021-09-24 11:37 | Report Abuse
im7777, although both you ( 三姑) and MM( 六婆) are 鸡婆 or gossipers , I must compliment you that the 三姑 is better in getting information than
六婆。 Stay tune. I will continue to average down to below 3 when the price hit 2 and below . Another opportunity of a lifetime.
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investmalaysia7777 you see pjseow. keep sticking to his methodology of PE la, cash la, future expansion la this and that. in the end also kena burn gao gao. His price should be around RM3 to RM3.5. market is all about sentiment. It dont care what you think. and what you think won't affect market. So just go with it and not against it.
24/09/2021 9:59 AM
2021-09-23 21:42 | Report Abuse
If MM and his gangs work harder , the total market caps for these 3 companies may drop to 1 b . Then supermx 3.78 b can buy morw such companies and become as big as Topglove .
2021-09-23 21:37 | Report Abuse
STOB, I think it is better for supermx to acquire Comfort, Careplus and Rubberex . Their total market caps are 1991 millions or about 2 b. Their total yearly earnings for the last 4 qtrs are about
1.15 b . Their total capacities plus future expansions are as big as supermx. With such acquisitions, supermx will be bigger than Harta. Supermx can also use its OBM models on these productions qty which can.improve its margins.
Supermx cash is 3.78 b which is more than.enough to acquire these 3 companies.
2021-09-23 13:36 | Report Abuse
monetary , I am just replying to your comment after you commented on my comment. I am just telling you the ASP assumption by the IBs. If you think that the IB assumption is incorrect and that they do not know what is going on , so be it . Save your time and dont comment. I will also save my think explaining to you.
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monetary Pjsiew. I suggest u join those webinar organised by bursa. From your statement I can see that u don't know what's going on in the world. Don't just confine yourself in a little glove box.
23/09/2021 1:20 PM
2021-09-23 11:25 | Report Abuse
The US 25.6 ASP is already the pre pandemic pricing. This assumption is already considered the worst case scenario. This is a projection
Nobody knows the future . Same thing apply to other industry.
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monetary the growth rate is as good as guessing. 1st ppl presumed normalised asp $35. Now downgraded to $25. The worst thing is the normalisation period becomes shorter and shorter. So is it possible tat 3 months later normalised asp becomes $22? How are investors going to forecast growth? Why commit their money when the road ahead is foggy?
22/09/2021 4:30 PM
2021-09-23 00:53 | Report Abuse
Haha, Tonee, tax those use RSS and make millions from the markets by shorting. Good suggestion. Email Ah JIB Gor.
2021-09-22 22:52 | Report Abuse
With ASP coming down , glove makers will.not see more than 1 b.profit per qtr. in the coming qtrs . Bank will.continue to make more than 1b per qtr. In my opinion, companies making more than 1 b per qtr.is consider super profit.
2021-09-22 21:44 | Report Abuse
Those banks like MAYBANK., CIMB and PBB which make above 1 billion.per.qtr during pandemic .must pay windfall tax。
2021-09-22 16:21 | Report Abuse
1. Growth
What is projected Supermx Growth From FY
2019 to FY 2023 ?
We should omit the super or extraordinary growth rate from FY 2019 to FY2021 . This is more than 30 X within 2 years. It is more realistic
to calculate the growth rate from.FY 2019 to FY2023 which the ASP is projected to drop to a NORMALISED level at blended manufacturing ASP of about US 25 per 1000. Based on IB S consensus earning of 882.millions in FY 2023, there is a growth of 7.11 X compared.with FY 2019 earning of 124 millions. This is equivalent to 63 % average compounded rate per year for 4 years. This is based on capacity of 36 billions p.a in.2023.and ASP projected to drop to US 25.6 .
Can anyone name me one profitable company in.Bursa which has such high growth rate ?
2021-09-22 13:37 | Report Abuse
Based on Famous Stock guru Coldeye advice, the five most important criteria for stock selection are as follows in terms of importance.
1. Growth
2. Cash Flow
3. ROA
4. PE Ratio
5. Dividend Yield.
Supermx has all the five . I will share the details later for each of them.
2021-09-22 08:50 | Report Abuse
Inari is just a subcon house depending solely on its customer Broadcom. Inari do not have its own product. Inari was " created " by Avago in 2005 . Broadcom can "" create"" another second source subcon if they want. Broadcom or former Avago is the the one which has the state of the art products not inari. The number one product Fbar filter has been built by Globetronics subsidiary before.
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investmalaysia7777 LOL, you know how big is 5G market? does inari got more competitors coming in like what happened in gloves?
21/09/2021 9:31 AM
2021-09-21 16:34 | Report Abuse
The market is overreacting to Topglove s last 2 QR Results which like what Geek2020 mentioned were not reflective of the overall glove sectors . Topglove Q3 earning dropped 30 % whereas the others did not drop but stabilised or some even went higher. Topglove last qtr or Q4 dropped 70 % but comfort latest QR dropped only 32 %. Topglove last 2 QRs were very much affected by the CBP ban. It lost a qtr of its revenues with the highest.ASPs plus its old orders with good ASPs. The impact is huge . With the lifting of the ban , I think Topglove will recover its lost businesses in US.
2021-09-20 23:17 | Report Abuse
Tonee, based on.my estimation, by end of FY 2022 which is mid of CY2022, Supermx will have RM1.75 per share of cash after paying off another 280 millions for the 36 b capacity expansion. If Stanley and the management decide to delay the capacity.expansion for the balance 12 billions, they can.decide to distribute.all the 1.75 per.share of solid cash to the shareholders in the next.few qtrs. He and his wife will get 1.93 billions of cash.dividends. With today closing price of 2.44 , both of them can buy back another 29 % of the total supermx shares. They will then own 69 % of total shares. The company will go back to pre pandemic with about 250 millions nett debt but capacity.of 36 b instead of 22 b. The nitrile.to latexx ratio will also increase to 73 to 27 instead.of 52 to 48 during prepandemic. If we buy at 2.44 , effectively we are buying at 2.44 - 1.75 or 69 sen . The 69 sen is pre pandemic price but we are getting a supermx with much higher capacity of 36 billions fully paid for compared with 22 b during.pre pandemic. Furthermore , the IBs consensus PAT.for FY 2023.is 882 millions which is 7.1 times higher than the pre pandemic of 124 millions in FY 2019. Do you think Stanley and his management team.are not looking at the numbers and planning for the.attack at the right timing ? May be when.MM has work hard enough to push the price from.2.44 to 65 sen ?
Then we can use the 1.75 to sapu kaw kaw the supermx share at 65 s .
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Stanley and wife will get 40% of the payout. Distribute 1b they get 400mil, if 2b they get 800mil. Good reard for their hard work.
20/09/2021 10:14 PM
Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORPORATION BHD
2021-10-03 11:45 | Report Abuse
The Grand Formulas
Revenue = ASP x Cap x Util x Exc Rate
PAT = Revenue x Nett Margin
Below are the actual ASPs , Capacities ,Revenues , Nett Margins , PATs for FY 2019, 2020 and 2021 plus the corresponding respective projections for FY 2022 , 2023 and 2024.
FY 2019 Actual
Revenue 1488 millions
Capacity : 22 billion p.a
ASP : US 19.6
Nett margin 8.5 %
PAT : 124.Millions
EPS = 124/2720 = 4.6 sen
Nitrile to latexx ratio 52 to 48 %
Business model : OEM 30 % , many.middlemen like dealers , agents ,
FY 2020 Actual
Rrvenue : 2131 millions
Capacity : 24 billions pa
ASP : US 25.5
PAT : 526 millions
Nett margin : 24.7 %
EPS = 526/2720 = 19.3 sen
FY2021 Actual
Revenue : 7615 millions
Capacity : 26 billions
ASP : US 77
Nett Margin : 55 %
PAT : 3815 millions
EPS = 3815/2720 = 140.3 sen
Nitrile to latexx ratio : 68 to 32 %
Business model.: OEM.2 % , no middlemen like agents and dealers , 58.% sell direct to.final customers and 40 % to independent.distributors.
FY 2022 Projection
ASP : USD 50
Capacity : 30 billions pa
Revenue = 50 x 30 x0.8 x 4.2 = 5040 m
Nett margin : 40.%
PAT : 5040 x 0.4 = 2016 m
EPS = 2016/ 2720 = 74.1 sen
Nitrile to latexx ratio : 70 to 30 %
FY 2023 Projection
ASP : USD 28 ( normalised )
Capacity : 42 billions pa
Revenue : 28 x 42 x 0.8 x 4.15 = 3904 m
Nett margin : 25 %
PAT = 3904 x.0.26 = 976 m
EPS= 976/ 2720 = 35.9 sen
Nitrile to latexx ratio : 75 to 25 %
FY 2024 Projection
ASP : 28
capacity: 48 billions p.a
Revenue : 28 x 48 x 0.8 x 4.15 = 4462 m
Nett margin : 25.%
PAT : 4462 x 0.25 = 1116 m
EPS = 1116/2720 = 41 sen
Nitrile to Latex ratio : 80 to 20 %
Pls note the increase in capacities , nitrile ratios , ASPs from FY 2019 to 2024 . There is also change of business model from 2019 to 2020 and the subsequent following years. The changes for the 5 years are significant.