GO , Thank you
-------------------------
GlovesOff Congrats @pjseow & @toneefa , credit where credit is due
26/08/2021 8:08 PM

Stealth, I think the ASP has dropped from US 87 the previous qtr to about 82 last qtr. The utilization.rate is 85 % . This will give a revenue of 85 x 0.82 x 4.2 x 26.2 /4 = 1872 millions. The net margin dropped to 51.2 % which gives an earning of 958.4 m. I think.the June 60 % workforce did affect the overall utilization which in normal circumstances should be between.90 to 95 %. This is my guess.
----------------------------
Stealth Not much of a guidance is there?
26/08/2021 7:55 PM

Stealth, haha , after snipping , we call him.MM Abdullah .

Stealth, if you remember, this MM has been ""Kan Cheong "" about supermx result since 3 weeks ago even though he dont own any supermx shares. Now when the result is out , he hide in the cave.
--------------------------
Stealth where is that rm500m bugger?
26/08/2021 7:28 PM

MM is hiding. His 500 m projected PAT is 91.8 % off compared with the actual 959 million. My estimation of 1 b is 4.1 % off. He quoted his figure came from RHB and he has repeated more than 100 messages.

Geoge Leong , Good explanations.
--------------------
George Leong @Keyman188: Money used to pay previous quarter dividends, plant and machineries expansion, repayment of borrowings. Also to take note prepayments from customer of 1bil has reduced to 600mil. Revenue and profits is recognized when goods are delivered.
26/08/2021 7:16 PM

15 sen dividend declared

yes . 958 million. No wonder MM dare not bet . Otherwise he will lose his kuku bird.

MM is so desperate that he had to lie. Please read the Analyst report below for last QR.


----------------------------------
Stock : SUPERMX Source : BIMB
Price Target : 7.30
Last Price : 3.12


Supermax held a 3QFY21 results briefing to sell-side analysts on 6th May. Profit increased to RM1.08bn mainly due to higher ASP. However, volume was impacted by plant closures due to Covid-19 cases.

Global demand for glove expected to remain strong but ASP anticipated to gradually decline from its March quarter peak due to increasing competition moving forward.

Supermax declared 13sen special DPS, bringing YTD DPS of 16.8sen and committed to declare more dividends. We estimate dividend yield of 8.6% FY21f.
We have revised down our earnings for FY21f/FY22f by 16%/22% as we lower our ASP and utilization rate assumptions. TP reduce to RM7.30, implying PER 12x on CY22 EPS. Maintain BUY

There is a consensus between.glove.makers, MARGMA and IB s that the ASP s of Nitrile gloves will stabilise at between US 30 to 35 per 1000 post pandemic. This is 50 % higher than pre pandemic ASP of between US 22 to 23 . This is also equivalent to linear growth of ASP CAGR of 10 % per year . Such ASP growth plus the 18 % growth of capacity can translate into earning growths of 8 to 10x during post pandemic. The current Bell curve ASP growth will reach the same ASP post pandemic as above linear growth but with total earnings is a few billions higher than the linear growth scenario. Supermx has another additional growth of earning by changing its business model . These two growths enable supermx to have an approximately 10 to 12 x of pre pandemic earnings when caacity hit 48.billions and ASP stabilised to between 30 to 35 post pandemic. The current price is glaringly and obviously undervalued. It doesnt take a rocket scientist to understand this.

Today last 10 minutes the top 4 glovemakers had a big rebound with huge volumes. Listen to the comments what could have happen. MM.say boring but I say something exciting coming .
--------------------------------------------------
https://youtu.be/nQExZyD4Iw8

IM 77 .Come on.lah . Those who bought.Genting in 2019 and before still.losing money lah while those who bough topglove in 2019 and before still.make tons of money.lah. Who is tho sui.ka ? This simple things also cannot see .
--------------------------
investmalaysia77 Tropicana now need to do private placement. Before this lose 50% on top glove. If not because of this they don't even need to do private placement which can dilute their shares. In tropicana perspective not toh Sui ka is what?? Say thank you to gloves ah
24/11/2019 9:10 PM

Poor IM and Shitadel keep thinking others are losing money. You think.only both of you know how to trade and look at the charts ? Peoples are not stupxxd lah. Sooner or later peoples will realise the true value of glove makers. Just need to be patient for longer term.while make some money when.shorties sell low low and wait for rebound which is imminent.

-----------------------
investmalaysia77 poor losers. Losing money still come out say people wrong
24/08/2021 12:05 PM

citadel0002 this pjseow still using his outdated investment skills hahaha
24/08/2021 12:06 PM

Do you know the meaning of tho sui ka? If you have two sons . One make billions in the last two years . His company is net cash while the other son lose billions and in net debt .The first son has been giving generous dividend to the father mother brother and sisters in the last one year. Which son is tho sui ka ? You make a conclusion based on jealous outsiders who talked bad about the first son and said he is tho sui ka without looking at his actual performance. It is the father who is tho sui ka lah. Sooner or later peoples will realise the father IM is Stupxxd to listen to the bad mouthing of the first son.

-----------------------------------------
investmalaysia77 Yayaya. Net cash, earn billions so what? you got earn or not? your average at RM4 lol
24/08/2021 11:50 AM

IM77 , IB celup , What tho sui ka ? All the 4 top glove makers made few billions respectively for the last 18 months while Genting lost few billions at the same time. All.the top 4 glove makers are.nett cash while Genting is net debt. Which is tho sui ka ?

--------------------------

investmalaysia77 Gloves really toh Sui ka. you see tropicana now need to do private placement d. if tropicana didn't buy top glove shares. they won't suffer almost 50% capital loss. and maybe they won't need to do private placement
24/08/2021 10:56 AM

investmalaysia77 genting Berhad far more higher than top glove lo. before this top glove higher. then slowly both of them around same price. now genting much much higher than topglvoe
24/08/2021 10:57 AM

Further to ADCool comments, the estimated earning of supermx in fy 2022 will be rm 966 millions based on the hypothetical.linear growth as below. FY 2022 already started from.July last month. The eps of projected 2022 will be 35.5 sen. With a PE of 18 , the value is already RM 6.39. The current.scenario is projected at 3x of the RM 966 millions. In fact Analysts should value supermx much higher in view of the fact that the actual FY 2020 and FY 2021 earnings are much higher than the linerar growth scenarios.


------------------------------------------------

Posted by pjseow > Aug 20, 2021 2:27 PM | Report Abuse X

In my 20 plus years of stock investment experience , the IBs knows only how to value a gradual linear growth stocks but not the super high spiky Bell Curve growth stocks . The IBs will give good PE for linear growth stocks but give an extremely low PE for Bell Curve growth stocks although both stocks end at the same point after a few years of growths .
I had illustrated how bad the IBs misvalue the current Bell Curve growth of glove stocks in my previous message 2 days ago . Let me illustrate and summarise the two different scenarios to make the misjudgements or misvaluations by the IBs more obvious .


1. First Scenario ( the Hypothetical gradual linear growth scenario )

a. ASP growth of 10 % per year from 2020 t0 2023 ( from ASP of US 22 in 2019 to 32.2 in 2023 )

b. Capacity growth of 18 % per year from 25 billions pa to 48.5 billions per annum.

c. Nett Margin grow from 8 in 2019 to 10 , 12 ,15 and 18 % in 2023/

PAT , EPS and Tgt Values

FY 2019 125 m ( base or reference pt )

FY 2020 459 m
FY 2021 744 m
FY 2022 966 m
FY 2023 1505 m

Total 3674 millions

We are now in 2021 . What will the IB value supermx which has a growth 0f its PAT by 8.88 x within two years ? What PE will the IB give ? 15 , 18, 20 or 25 ? If I take a very conservative PE of 18 ,with an EPS of 27.3 sen , the target value would have been RM 4.92 . In other industry like the semicon , the IBs would have given a PE of 30 to 60 to such stocks which have 7 to 8 consecutive qtrs of superberb 2 to 3 digits growth rates .


2. Current scenario ( Bell Curve Growth Scenario )

a. ASP growth of 30 % in FY 2020 and then 300 % in 2021 . Then it taper off 40 % in 2022 and then another 40 % in 2023 to US 32.2 .

b. Similar capacity growth as First Scenario of 18 % per year from 25 billions pa to 48.5 billions pa.

c. Nett Margin grow from 8 % in FY 2019 t0 25 % in FY 2020 , 55 % in 2021 and then taper off to 30 % in 2022 and 18 % to 2023 .

PAT , EPS and Target Value

FY 2019 125 millions ( actual and referencept )

FY 2020 524 millions ( actual )
FY 2021 3854 millions ( actual 2854+ 1000 projected )
FY 2022 2800 millions ( projected )
FY 2023 1505 millions ( projected similar to First Scenario)

Total 8683 millions

I think PH made the right decision not to support Maihidin for following reasons.

1. You dont work with someone who had betrayed you and caused the downfall of PH government.

2. Maihidin is not a trustworty person. As PM , he can still do wonders and make PH as scapegoat if economy and pandemic still.do not improve from the current mess.

3. There is no point for PH to use its resources to clean up the big mess of PN . If it help to turnaround, PN or Maihidin will claim credit. If it doesnt turnaround , PH will.get the blame. Either way, PH will lose.

Tony is not.a savvy.person.in.terms of politics. Anwar and PH.had better get prepared for GE 15.which is only one year away.

The Gradual linear growth rate Scenario actually happen without the need of having a pandemic. The sporadic epidemic like the SARS in 2003 and the H1N1 in 2019 to 2010 is sufficient to generate the ASP growth of 10 % annually. Analyst prefer this type of linear growth because they know how to value stocks with linear growth. They do not know or they are not competent to value the current.super Bell Curve growth . My write up is to make them wake up or open their eyes there is a gross.misvaluation or misjudgement on the current values of glove stocks.
------------------------------------------
I3deletemycomment Pjseow comment do make a lot of sense is due to undestroyable covid

MM , my write up is definetly not for you as I know you are too dumb.to understand simple maths and English. It is for the IBs , fund managers , majority serious investors and retailers. They will see the obvious undervalue of supermx sooner or later

In my 20 plus years of stock investment experience , the IBs knows only how to value a gradual linear growth stocks but not the super high spiky Bell Curve growth stocks . The IBs will give good PE for linear growth stocks but give an extremely low PE for Bell Curve growth stocks although both stocks end at the same point after a few years of growths .
I had illustrated how bad the IBs misvalue the current Bell Curve growth of glove stocks in my previous message 2 days ago . Let me illustrate and summarise the two different scenarios to make the misjudgements or misvaluations by the IBs more obvious .


1. First Scenario ( the Hypothetical gradual linear growth scenario )

a. ASP growth of 10 % per year from 2020 t0 2023 ( from ASP of US 22 in 2019 to 32.2 in 2023 )

b. Capacity growth of 18 % per year from 25 billions pa to 48.5 billions per annum.

c. Nett Margin grow from 8 in 2019 to 10 , 12 ,15 and 18 % in 2023/

PAT , EPS and Tgt Values

FY 2019 125 m ( base or reference pt )

FY 2020 459 m
FY 2021 744 m
FY 2022 966 m
FY 2023 1505 m

Total 3674 millions

We are now in 2021 . What will the IB value supermx which has a growth 0f its PAT by 8.88 x within two years ? What PE will the IB give ? 15 , 18, 20 or 25 ? If I take a very conservative PE of 18 ,with an EPS of 27.3 sen , the target value would have been RM 4.92 . In other industry like the semicon , the IBs would have given a PE of 30 to 60 to such stocks which have 7 to 8 consecutive qtrs of superberb 2 to 3 digits growth rates .


2. Current scenario ( Bell Curve Growth Scenario )

a. ASP growth of 30 % in FY 2020 and then 300 % in 2021 . Then it taper off 40 % in 2022 and then another 40 % in 2023 to US 32.2 .

b. Similar capacity growth as First Scenario of 18 % per year from 25 billions pa to 48.5 billions pa.

c. Nett Margin grow from 8 % in FY 2019 t0 25 % in FY 2020 , 55 % in 2021 and then taper off to 30 % in 2022 and 18 % to 2023 .

PAT , EPS and Target Value

FY 2019 125 millions ( actual and referencept )

FY 2020 524 millions ( actual )
FY 2021 3854 millions ( actual 2854+ 1000 projected )
FY 2022 2800 millions ( projected )
FY 2023 1505 millions ( projected similar to First Scenario)

Total 8683 millions

This Bell Curve actual current scenario has much higher earnings in 2020 , 2021 and most likely 2022 than the First linear gradual growth Scenario and both will meet at the same 2023 ASPs and Capacity and hence the same earnings. The current Bell Curve Scenario will be much better off with additional 5 billions earnings compared with the First Scenario .

What is the PE and target value the IBs assigned to currently in 2021 ? With the PAT of 3854 , the EPS is RM 1.42 . With the current price of 3.10 , the PE is only 2.2 . Is it justified to give such a low PE with a 30.8 X growth in earnings compared with 2019 ?
The IBs and the Shorties are spinning with crappy reasons that ASP is coming down ,oversupply , vaccines are available , pandemic will be over despite the fact that both Scenarios will reach the SAME end point with ASP of US 32.2 and Capacity of 48.5 billions pa .
IBs will give a beautiful growth story and assign much higher PE than 15 for year 2021, 2022 and 2023 . ASP is growing and good capacity expansion despite the fact that the current scenario actually earn 5 billions more in total than the first linear growth rate scenario.
Isnt this is an obvious misjudgement by the Ibs or pure incompetent or plainly irrational and stupxxd ?
Pankaj Kumar ,the ex Stock Analyst wrote an article in the Star a few months ago titled " Stock Valuations is an Art " . He basically mentioned that to value a Super growth Bell Curve Stock requires a different approach . I hope my this write up will give the IBs another look at how to value the super growth Bell Curve stocks PROPERLY so that the public retailers and fund managers will not be misled .
I welcome civilised and professional comments from Ibs and the general public .

Disclaimer : THis is not a buy or sell call . It is for sharings with serious supermx investors and also the Ibs .

IM777, You wake up from the wrong side of your bed? Dont stood so low lah . Tonee is strong supporter of supermx . He is my buddy lah.
MM., CTDL , GLOVEOFF , GLOVEFINISH and IM work for short sellers . They are the ones Day in day out talk bad about supermx.
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investmalaysia777 toneefa is the one who did SHORT SELLING!!!! He comes here to act supporters. Then he stab your back. BEWARE GUYS
19/08/2021 9:14 AM

This is the standard and quality of comment coming from.someone who claimed to work for IB . Sigh.

---------------------------------------------
investmalaysia77 pjseow now begging IB to read his post. cannot tahan his paper loss d. kikiki 早知今天，何必当初
18/08/2021 9:20 AM

Tonee, Stealth , jgc147 ,dick20 ,

Thanks for the comments

My purpose of writing this article is to intentionally show the hypothetical scenario of gradual ASP growth of 10 % per year and 18 % capacity growth per year for 4 years will generate fantastic earnings growth which are better than the current top notch high growth companies which IB assign a high PE .
My second intention is to show the total earnings of current scenario ( super high earning growth and then taper down ) is more than twice higher than the above hypothetical scenario although both scenario reach the same end point of ASP at US 32.2 ( between 30 to 35 post pandemic ) and capacity of 48.5 billions in 2023 .

With the comparison of the 2 scenarios , I make it obvious that there is no reason to give an unreasonable super low PE for the current scenario because .

1. Total earnings for current scenario is better than the hypothetical scenarios of continuos growth .

2. Both scenarios will continue t0 grow from 2023 onwards when ASP reach the stabilised US 32.2 in 2023 post pandemic period .

3. The company deserve a better PE of 15 with such growth rate and hence the target prices in 2023 . .

4. The 4 years total earnings of the hypothetical scenario is able to fund the capacity expansion from 25 billions to 48.5 billions per year .

5. The 4 years total earnings of the current scenarios can fund similar capacity expansions with surplus cash which can be distributed to shareholders as dividend or share buy backs .

I hope the above comparison will eliminate the fear or misconception that
when ASP come down to US 30 to 35 , supermx value will go back to pre pandemic levels .
Supermx had already make a total of 3.27 billion from 2020 till present .THis total is only RM 400 m short of the total for the hypothetical total earnings of 3.67 billions . With the coming QR of approximately 1 b , the total will surpass the hypothetical total earnings . Whatever extra earning is a bonus .

Supermx is really under valued at current prices .

Disclaimer : THe above is not a buy or sell call . It is for sharing for serious investors .

Why IBs gave such a low PE to glove stocks despite 10 to 30 x YOY growth in earnings for the last 4 qtrs compared with pre pandemic 2019 ? The unreasonable low PEs assigned to these 4 glove counters especially Supermx are due to failures of IBs to effectively and logically value the glove stocks plus failures for major investors to see the values from a more logical manner . Let me share with you how badly our IBs had mis value our glove stocks .

Imagine this pandemic did not trigger a super extraordinary rise in demands ( more than 18 months leadtime ) and ASPs ( 4 x increase ) in the last one year but a more gradual rise of 10 % ASP per year and an 18 % rise in capacity per year as follows .

Lets take supermx as example in a hypothetical scenario

ASP ( US per k ) 10 % rise per year from 2020 to 2023

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

22 24.2 26.6 29.3 32.2


Capacity ( billions pa ) increase 18 % per year from 2020 to 2023

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

25 29.5 34.8 41.1 48.5

Net Margin

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

8 % 10 % 12 % 15 % 18 %


PAT ( millions Ringgit ) assuming utilization of 85 % and exchange rate of 4.2

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Mfg
144 306 496 644 1003

Distribution ( 50 % of mfg profits )

0 153 248 322 502

Total Profits ( millions )

144 459 744 966 1504

EPS (in sen ) ( Total shares 2.72 billions )

5.3 16.9 27.3 35.5 55.3

Values in RM ( assuming PE of 15 )

0.79 2.53 4.10 5.33 8.30

The above scenarios gave a 3x rise in profits from 2019 to 2020 due to a change in business model when Distribution Division started to deliver profits . Thereafer , an average of 30 to 60 % growth pa in earnings from 2020 to 2023 . Will peoples still talk about ASP coming down and over capacity with such gradual growth ?
Will IB s give a good valuations under such scenario ( consistent growth of 30 % to 200 % per year and will continue to grow after 2023 .

The end points ( 2023 ) are the same for both scenarios , ASP reach US 32.2 ( between 30 to 35 ) post pandemic and capacity grows from 25 billions to 48.5 billions .

I can bet you no company in KLSE can beat Supermx with such hypothetical earning growth for 4 years . In fact a PE of more than 15 should be given to such super high growth company .

Now , is the total earnings for the above hypothetical scenario more than the current scenario ? The answer is a BIG NO NO NO . In fact the total earnings is only 3.674 billions which is only less than half of the current scenario .
If the current super high growth of more than 30 x ( or 3000 %) growth earn more in total than the above hypothetical scenario , why punish the stock and give such a low PE ? Are the IBs damn poor in their maths ? Are they ignorant or naive ?
I am taking a challenge with IBs to show me any other company in KLSE can meet the above growth from 2020 to 2023 . Vitrox, MPI , Greatec , Penta , Frontken ?
I hope all IBs will read my article and think logically and revalue the glove stocks accordingly especially supermx . It is grossly and unreasonable undervalued . I welcome civilised comments from serious investors .

Disclaimer : THe above analysis is not a buy or sell call .

Stealth. Exactly, This.shitadel 666 not only poor in maths but fail simple English also. I just said.I did some trading buy at less than 3.10 and.sold at 3.70. He interpreted I averaged down to 3.05. This serial liar like to twist and turns.



----------------------------
Stealth check your facts you ass! i dont see pjseow claiming his average at 3.05!! Having bot up to 3.05 doesnt mean that it is his average!! why you so densed??
17/08/2021 12:41 PM

IM77 , Using the most shorted stock as the most overvalued stock is the most stupxxd way . You shame the entire IB profession by claiming you are working for IB .
Supermx has the highest Earning Yield of 47.6 % among the good stocks I.picked. For every 1 rm , it generate 47.6 sen based on FY 21 earning. This is the.most undervalued stock based on.the last 4 qtrs earnings.
----------------------------------
Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD

Aug 10, 2021 3:45 PM | Report Abuse

Below are the earning yields ( EY ) for last for 4 rolling qtrs of
selected stocks for your reference .

Earning Yield = Total Annual EPS / Share price

FD 2 % per annum

Supermx 47.6 % ( assuming coming qtr 1 b profit )
Kossan 37.3 %
Topglove 28.0 %
Harta 21.4 %

MPI 2.6 %
MR DIY 1.9 %
Greatech 2.1 %
Inari 2.8 %
MFCB 9.4 %
Panamy 6.0 %
Uchitech 6.1 %
UWC 1.4 %

I have computed supermx earning with 48 billions capacity and ASP at US 30 per 1000, the EPS is 53.3 sen . At current price the Earning yield is
17.2 % which is still higher than the current EY of the 8 popular non glove stocks listed above . In my opinion , Supermx is the most undervalued stock in the whole of KLSE

GloveOff , you son of a gun .
You think you are younger than me ah.
You had very bad memory lah . Sign.of old age and Dimentia. Call me bro please. You forgot my average down was 4 mah because I also bought some at 3.60 . IM had better memory and quote 4 many times. Of course.I still keep supermx but wont tell you how.much because you got big mouth . I still have strong conviction supermx will fly one day . Meanwhile must see how the shorties play and act accordingly。Will buy more at low and sell at next rebound . Trade sime and keep some for medium term. Expect the next dividend.

GloveOF , why so bad memory . Read your reply on June 27 . I told you the rebound was imminent many times and I will buy when it reach 3 . So I bought.at below 3.10 and true enough it rebounded in.early July to more than 3.70. So I did short term trading by selling off at 3.70 . It looks like another opportunity coming . Will buy quietly loh and wait for next big rebound which is imminent.
----------------------------------------------

Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD

Jun 27, 2021 9:17 PM | Report Abuse

@pjseow , hope you catch momentum/your avg price and able to recover your losses

Funds have tricks up their arsenal take heed, we are not pessimists just realists, if there's oppo to trade why not

Tonee.ok.done

Tonee , Shhhhh... not so loud .If shorties short low low , we buy quiet quietly... . I saw more buyers than sellers recently . But IM77 will say he dont trust me anymore wor because I never tell him when.I buy and when I sell.



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ToneeFa Good one Stealth, not only pjseow, many are buying too. I m nibbling too, but quietly.
16/08/2021 4:31 PM

Tonee, GF himself is the market but his market is not the up and down type. His.market.only.go down but never up one.
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ToneeFa So gf, u seemed so sure Supermax price will keep on dropping non-stop. So how low will it drop to? What is ur TP ?
15/08/2021 10:24 PM

Sales, you are right , Even if the coming QR profit is 900 millions. this is 30 x of pre pandemic profit of about 30 millions.
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Sales Even below 1b profit, still consider good. No worry.
15/08/2021 4:59 PM

IM77, Enough of smearing campaign. Why you all are so interested on.my investments? Whether I have long term , medium term investment or short term trading is none of your business. Your guys had been too busy body on other peoples investments and even speculate on other peoples profit and loss. I knew what I am doing . I made 5x profits from supermx in 2020 . You also knew I traded Harta by buying Harta a few months and sold at 9.92 making some profit. I bought Harta again at below 7 just last week.. Do I need to tell you every transactions I.made. Stop your busy body business lah and focus on your 65 sen per post lah . Dont boost you make much more than 18 % per
year lah. Peoples who make such good return.wont be so busy body with other peoples investments.

Satanic CTDL666, How do you know I did not make money from trading by buying low at below 3.10 and sell above 3.70 during rebound ? When you short low low , we will buy loh. My trading profit is better than your 65 sen per post lah. Worst still, your message.cant even.last 2 hrs .hahaha

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Citadel12 haha shorties already making 50 percent why kancheong?? u loss 50 percent still got face at here talk big???
15/08/2021 11:38 AM

After Kossan and Harta delivered a surprising unexpected good results , I.noticed the shorties Si Peh Kan.Chong especially MM . They also.anticipated similar results from Supermx . These shorties has been.singing the bad results of all glove counters after Topglove delivered a 15 % drop in.its last QR in early June more than.2 months ago. Supermx has been.priced in with shorties continued shorting. The shorties were shocked that actually both Kossan and Harta had higher ASPs last qtr than previous qtr.

Stealth, great job. You are really a stealth fighter . Good nite .

IM777, OK lah, you are better lah .Your.return are way above 18 % CAGR. Better than WARREN BUFFET .ok ?

--------------------

investmalaysia777 seems like you learn nothing from your past experience in stock market. which is why you only earn 18% CAGR per year which is way below my return.
14/08/2021 5:54 PM

Then what you use to value a stock ? IBs either use PE or DCF for companies making money. I doubt you have any valuation.knowledge.
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investmalaysia777 Still talking about PE? PE is the only thing that you look at when you invest ah?
14/08/2021 4:34 PM

Stealth, these naysayers are overly sensitive and suspicious types. They thought you were me also. They also suspected pampers , fairtalk were me too. They even.suspected I was the one who flagged their comments and resulted in mass deletions. hahaha.

IM77, I thought you work for IB. Do you think I will sell supermx with a PE of 2.6 ? Didnt you read my comment in supermx I will be using my overdraft to buy more supermx ? Supermx extraordinary earnings is equivalent to a CAGR of 30 % for the next 10 years. What PE will you give to such a company ? 2.6 or 26 or 36 ? Tell me first before I prove it to you in supermx forum ?
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investmalaysia77 @pjseow, you cut loss supermax and switch to harta? hahaha
14/08/2021 1:10 PM

Monetary, below is the extract of BIMB report on last QR. I interpret that ASP s of April to June was US 110 to 80 with an average of 95 whereas the average of Jan/Feb/March was 87.
The.ASPs was still moving up from Jan.to March and continue to go higher in.April touching the 110 and then coming down.in.May.and June
Both Kossan and Harta ASPs peaked in.last.qtr. I supposed supermx ASPs also peak in.last.Qtr.

----------------------------------------------
ASP have reach a peak in the March quarter.
Supermax’s ASP starting to see a drop in 2Q2021 which is earlier than our expectation in 2H2021.
Blended ASP still rose in 3QFY21 = Jan: USD84.61 (+1.3% mom), Feb: USD87.65 (+3.6% mom), March: USD89.2 (+1.7% mom).
Going forward, nitrile ASP (factory level) for April - June is about USD80-110, while July onward deteriorating to about USD70

Why follow Careplus but not Harta or Kossan ?
Careplus is so.much smaller than Supermx, Harta and Kossan. The 3 are in.the same league with billion profit per qtr . Any reason why choose careplus to be similar to supermx ?
------------------------------------------------
monetary From careplus QR we can expect SP PAT should be around 850mil.
13/08/2021 9:41 PM

Tonee, This is the most detailed Analyst briefing by supermx management last year. It contain a lot of information about the change of its business model , ASP s , capacity expansion and others.


--------------------

https://drive.google.com/file/d/16NsdaIhBI3108xjFDYwIhPGJX-7Qlyl4/view?usp=drivesdk

MM ah, why so impatient ? Already told you earlier that early or late release of QR has nothing to do with the result . Topglove. release very early last QR but QOQ result not very good. You look at comfort , Last QR was released on 21 st but excellent QOQ with 60 % higher profit. When company make more profit , need more time to count mah. If no profit or make losses , can release earlier because got nothing to count mah.
You dont own.any supermx share., just relax lah. Go and chit chat with CTDL 666 if you are too free.

------------------------------//-----------
MoneyMakers Whole week delay QR..make losses or what..soo scared to release
13/08/2021 5:39 PM

GOff, please dont talk nonsense and tell lies.

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by GlovesOff > Aug 13, 2021 2:12 PM | Report Abuse

pity ... now left last ambassador tonefahai to hold the fort ...


GlovesOff
1204 posts
Posted by GlovesOff > Aug 13, 2021 2:13 PM | Report Abuse

pjseow left all the trapped younglings here

Stockraider, you need to adjust your thinking a bit.
I am valuing Harta at the point where the ASP s has drop to a stabilised state after pandemic is over. We need to assume that after.pandemic when.ASP drop to its lowest stabilised point, it will resume its normal growth of 12 to 15 % per year in future as projected by margma .You are wrong to assume that glove consumption will have negative growths forever. Your thinking is not in line with MARGMA and other research houses.


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stockraider This scenario is Gloves became a value investment with negative growth loh & no longer a growth investment mah!

How do u value negative growth investment leh ?

We know how to value growth investment but negative growth investment very tricky mah

The 4 biggest gloves stocks in Malaysia have been enjoying double digits growth for the past 20 years before the covid 19 pandemics . The HIV , Sars , H1N1 , Mers , Zika epidemics had spurred growth of gloves with 8 to 10 % growth every year . The covid 19 Pandemic has accelerated the growth of gloves further with expected growth of 25 to 30 % per year during pandemic and 12 to 15 % post pandemic . Nobody know when the pandemic will end but the market had already responded by looking forward the ending of pandemic since end of 2020 despite earnings kept going up for the last few qtrs .
Hence , it is more important to look at what will be the earnings of glove makers during post pandemic . With the consensus from Glove makers , Margma and most Ibs , the ASPs of Nitrile gloves will be at US 30 to
35 per 1000 post pandemic . This is 30 to 40 % higher than the prices pre pandemic . With the planned capacity expansions plus the post pandemic ASPs . we can project and estimate the earnings of glove makers at the normalised post pandemic periods .
By assuming blended ASP of US 30 , supermx manufacturing can make

30 x 48 x 0.8 x 4.2 x 0.2 = 967 millions

Its Distribution can make 50 % of Manufacturing profit based on last 4 qtrs record . This is

967 x 0.5 = 483 millions

Total profits = 967 + 483 millions = 1.45 billions

This is about one third of estimated FY 2021 profits of about 4 billions .

In terms of EPS , it is 53 sen per share .

During normal pre pandemic period , Supermx had enjoyed a PE of between 15 to 18 . You can obtain the value of supermx by assiging a fair PE which you think fit .
While waiting for the post pandemic , the investors can enjoy an extraordinary dividend yield of about 10 % . I welcome any civilised comments .

Idlemoney66, the ( 63 x 42.5 x 0.8 x 4.25 =6.96 ) is the yearly revenue not earning or profit.

Earning = revenue x net margin
= 6.96 x 0.25
= 1.74 billion.

I assumed the net margin is 25 %.

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IdleMoney66 Hi PJseow, I guess you have miscalculated of PE.
Based on your calculation, forecasted yearly earning should be RM6.96 billion ( 63*32.5*0.8*4.25)
Thus, EPS should be RM2 (6.96/3.43) and current P/E should be 3.565. (7.13/2)

dawchok. I bought some Harta below 7 last week after I see its value when the CEO.stated that the post pandemic price of Nitrile glove will be between US30 to 35. This price is about 30 to 40 % higher than the pre pandemic price US22 to 24 per 1000. I.am glad that you have the same projection and estimation. The 60 % dividend policy is another plus pt for investors.

Stockraider, The CEO of Harta ,Margma and other glove makers projected the ASP will drop to US 30 to 35 per 1000 post pandemic for Nitrile gloves. Nobody knows when.will be post pandemic. In 2 to 3 years time, Harta capacity will.reach 63.billions per year . The projected earning will be

63 x 32.5 x 0.8 x 4.25 x 0.25 = 1.740 billions

assuming 4.25 exchange rate , 80 % utilization, average ASP of US 32.5 .

EPS = 1740/3430 = 50.7 sen

Assigning a PE of 20 , its value is rm 10.14
Assigning a PE of 25 , its value is rm 12.68

From now until post.pandemic, enjoy the high dividend yield of about 10 %.
Is it worthwhile with these numbers ?

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stockraider It is for sure gloves gloves margin & profit after tax margin will be falling due to over production & intense competition loh!

But....is it still ....worthwhile based current price leh ??


U see we are looking....at a negative growth stock investment scenario for gloves loh...!

How do u value a negative growth stock which is the opposite of growth stock leh ?

Quarter end 30 June 2021. NP margin: 57.96%
Quarter end 31 March 2021. NP margin: 48.92%
Quarter end 31 Dec 2020. NP margin: 47.32%
Quarter end 30 Sept 2020. NP margin: 40.84%
Quarter end 30 June 2020. NP margin: 24.03%
Quarter end 31 March 2020. NP margin: 14.87%