@tash1, if u sell at 2.90 u only profit 23 sen but if u hold for the special dividend u get 90 sen. Which do u want? 23 sen profit now or 90 sen dividend later? Chances are after ex-date the price will move up from 2.00 to around 2.60. Just my opinion.... decide at your own risk.

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tash1: If bought at 2.67 is it safe to hold or sell
Any idea pls guru//sifu
26/07/2019 9:23 AM
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Buy 1.97 on ex-date is the same as buy now at 2.87 because u will get cash refund of 90 sen later (on 29 Aug). The only difference is there is no guarantee u will get to buy at 1.97 on ex-date but if buy now at 2.87 the 90 sen refund is guaranteed.

All these talks about getting in at 1.90 (or 1.96) after ex-date is just trying to frighten people from getting in now because they don't want the price to go up b4 ex-date. They hope the price will drop further if people are afraid to buy now so that they can buy at lower price on Friday (26 July). They are those people who have sold off all their shares at 3.05 on the day of announcement of special dividend.... so if they cannot buy back cheaper b4 ex-date, they will miss getting the 90 sen special dividend.

Buy Air Asia better..... today & tomorrow last 2 days to buy entitle for 90 sen special dividend.

Hehehe..... i3lurker, looks like u don't have to wait long (to enter at the right time & price).

Those holding small position in PCHEM no problem lah, but those holding huge position (a few million shares) in PCHEM habis lah.

Yes, bleeding..... too many people wishing the price to drop (they want to buy cheap).

It is not wise to use margin financing no matter how cheap the stock, never.... especially when the price is going down rapidly like a falling knife.

Not sure about RM7.00, but RM7.20 is a possibility because that's where EPF & Citibank targeting to buy back shares.

Be careful.... don't average down too quickly (u will run out of bullets). Space out your averaging every 40 sen drop in price (not every 5 sen or 10 sen). And don't keep wishing for the price to go down (be careful, your wish may come true).

I am not a "fundamental" trader but if calvintaneng thinks that at USD56.02 crude oil price is high and PCHEM will suffer margin compression, can someone here (or anyone) explain how did PCHEM perform profitably and grow exponentially several years ago when crude oil price was USD70 to USD100?

About US - China trade war, my question is how long will Donald Trump remain as US President? Will the whole world suddenly stop consuming the tens of thousands of chemical products during this trade war?

Another thing, is it ethical for calvintaneng to advise people to sell (or cut loss) at historically low prices? If he is sincere in helping people, he should have advised them to sell PCHEM 6 months ago when the price was around RM9.30 (I did suggest people to reduce their risk exposure to PCHEM 6 months ago but nobody seem to take me seriously then).

Hehehe..... i3lurker, good luck waiting.

I don't think EPF is stupid or influenced by Citibank.... EPF and Citibank are working together as partners to press down the price as they wish and later to push up the price as they wish, in the process killing a lot of retail investors/traders. Retail investors/traders losses contribute to huge gains of EPF/Citibank's investment/trading strategies.

Hehehe..... interesting debate here. For me, if the price go up further next week is good (can sell more) but if the price fall back below RM7.70 again also good (can buy some more to average down).

Hehehe! ...... yes, indeed good opportunities to make fast money (or lose fast money for those unsure of what to do).

Wow, i3lurker... long time I didn't come across your comments. Glad to see u appear here.

Hahaha!! alphaqueen should have given the advise earlier b4 the stock market close..... but very true, should take some profit (sell some like Keyman188.... throw sikit). Anyway, for those who haven't taken profit.... hope Monday the price will move up a bit more for u to take profit (or exit). Like I said, the current situation is bad for people who buy and hold (but good for those who buy and sell).

This EPF's sell down followed by short periods of technical rebound is bad for people who buy and hold long term but gives great opportunities for people who trade stocks (buy low, average down & then sell higher than average cost).

Just keep in mind that Citibank is paid by EPF to manage EPF's fund (nobody can deny that fact)..... so Citibank's downgrading of the stock is less credible due to this fact that Citibank is working for EPF. Of course, in the long run it looks like EPF's sell down is not over yet because it has not achieved EPF's target.

Hehehe..... as I said yesterday, it won't stay below RM7.70 for too long. Hope it won't fall back below RM7.70 for some time (at least move higher a bit b4 falling back).

Yes, Citibank analyst will write research & TP according to what EPF wants because EPF pay them to manage EPF's fund.

No one can really guess how low PCHEM will drop but at this price (RM7.62) it is already at an 18% discount from RM9.30 (a few months ago high). We are not yet in a bear market.... if we are in a bear market then it is possible to drop to lower than 20% (or even 40%). Bear in mind that PCHEM is not a money losing company; it is a very profitable company.... though it will be less profitable in the coming quarters.

However, for those who are cost averaging.... it is better to space out your purchases at every 40 sen drop in price rather than at every 10 or 20 sen drop in price. Otherwise, u will run out of money to keep buying. My guess is it will not stay below RM7.70 for too long.

If buy below RM7.70 and hold for around 3 months will have almost 100% probability of winning big. Trade/invest at your own risk (no guarantee given for my statement about 100% winning big).

@mamatede, EPF still holding 616 million shares of PCHEM, i..e. 7.7 % of PCHEM's outstanding shares. With this much shares at their disposal, they can continue selling a few million shares every other day for several more months (mayb even more than 1 year of continuous selling).... but of course, they will buy back several million shares from time to time.


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mamatede: how muchj epf actually hold for pchem?
17/07/2019 9:59 AM
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RM7.95 coming sooner than I expected!!

I already explained about EPF's manipulation on PCHEM's price 5 months earlier b4 stingray_ea appear in this forum now (recently).

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RainT: ah

recent sell down due to EPF selling

not the PCHEM fundamental issue
17/07/2019 9:49 AM
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RM8.36 technical support broken!! Long term downtrend resume (with EPF resuming regular heavy selling)..... RM7.95 is not far away.

Hahaha!! More accurately..... price drop because EPF resume heavy selling on daily basis.

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Dakewlest: Price drop because of QR?
10/07/2019 11:49 AM
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@zedgehong, I can only provide u with a general price projection..... whether it is a good time to enter now at current price will depend on what kind of investor or trader u r (i.e. your own investment/trading profile) & your strategy (how u invest/trade).

PCHEM has been in a long term downtrend (for the past 11 months) & this long term downtrend is still intact & ongoing. Speculators staged a technical rebound 01 July (9 days ago) which doesn't look sustainable. I prefer to wait & see if the price will break below RM8.36 or will it be supported above that price b4 making any further commitment in this counter.

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zedgehong: risktransformer , thank u for your info. today market is that a best time to invest ?
10/07/2019 11:02 AM
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There's a weak support at RM8.58 (see if it will break below this price today or next few days) and a very strong support at RM8.36 (if this is broken as well, then PCHEM will resume its long term downtrend). If the price can be supported above these two levels (i.e. RM8.36 & RM8.58) then things will begin looking very good for PCHEM.

Well, the word "soon" can mean a few months to some people (or a few weeks to others)..... it depends on whether u r an investor or trader. In the stock market, nothing can be guaranteed because trends and sentiment keep changing. I have to give some caution here..... when I started posting about the downtrend of PCHEM about 5 or 6 months ago, it was based on my observation of EPF consistently selling 3 to 9 million shares on regular basis and later the downtrend was confirmed by a 12.5% correction of the KLCI. But then EPF started buying back PCHEM's shares for about a month (b4 the recent selling) and our stock market is having a 5.8% rebound now. Furthermore, speculators staged a breakout of my predicted short term resistance at RM8.58 yesterday..... so as a trader, I have to be flexible in my price projection.

Wow.... those sold at 8.30 were selling too low, should have waited for price to move up higher (like yesterday) b4 selling. And if u want to wait for 7.99 then u may have to wait for a long time (like a few months) ..... also, there is no guarantee that it will reach 7.99.

Yesterday's speculative buyers will become today's speculative sellers......... bringing down the price through their profit taking exercise.

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Rwkl: EPF resumes selling millions. Speculative buyers dived in with low volume and yet they managed to get the upper hand. Mind boggling...
01/07/2019 9:19 PM
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I think it was speculative buyers that pushed up the price..... the volume traded today was very low (less than half the volume of last Friday).

Up & down between 0.285 & 0.320 ^^

^^

Short Term (within next 1 month):
Resistance at RM8.58
Support at RM8.24

Medium Term (within next 3 months):
Resistance at RM8.95
Support at RM8.15

With EPF resuming heavy selling again, RM7.99 may be a possibility soon.

Hehehe..... for a long time only 5 or 6 "d....." from the same gang talking among themselves & keep repeating the same phrases everyday. ^^

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paktua73: senang hati paktua bila lihat forum sapura kembali normal..
ramai kembali berkongsi info..
semoga ia berkekalan..

tut tut
28/06/2019 2:25 PM
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What's happening to CIMB? Why are EPF & KWAP racing with each other to see who can SELL more millions of shares almost daily? How can the price go up if these two giants (EPF & KWAP) keep dumping millions of shares so regularly?

Philip, investors must not trade & traders must not invest.... they must stick to their own skills in making money based on their own circumstances. There are winners & losers among investors & traders. There are times when investors are better off than traders & there are times when traders are better off than investors.... depending on the market phase.

Indeed a very inspiring video...... thanks!

Calvintaneng: Listen and see this

TESTIMONY OF YTL POWER OF DIVINE PROVIDENCE

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polycarp: Calveintaneng thanks for sharing.
I really enjoyed listening to the stories
of how God touches our lives daily
08/06/2019 8:46 PM
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Philip, I think it is not proper to compare buying/selling a house with stock. A house is not a liquid asset whereas a stock like PCHEM shares is very liquid.... u can sell it within seconds & buy it back any time with very little transaction cost (unlike a house.... the transaction cost is very high). So the mindset involved dealing with these two assets is very different.

Tomorrow holiday (no trading)..... hehehe. Probably Monday may drop a bit due to profit taking.

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RainT: tomorrow drop back
07/06/2019 2:42 PM
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I only hold a little bit of PCHEM.... so I'm not bothered about the price dropping. But for those holding huge position in this stock..... imagine, a few months ago the price was around RM9.30 and now it has dropped to RM8.28; so if they held RM10 million in this stock then they have already lost around RM1 million. Looks like the price may drop further.

RM7.90 is close to my predicted 10% drop from RM8.83, hehehe.......

The market has not collapse yet. In fact, the KLCI has recovered slightly in recent days (that's good news.... it will soften the price drop a bit). Another good news is EPF seems to begin buying back PCHEM's shares but whether this will bring up the price or not will depend on how long EPF keep buying.

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titus: Next Q will con't to be weak? Explosion incident, weak demand, poor pricing and decrease in margin. See if it can break 7.90 or not.
30/05/2019 5:54 AM
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@tah16600, resume what "uncompleted uptrend"? It is clearly in a very strong DOWNTREND for the past 3 months! U still haven't got it? Didn't u see the DOWNTREND?

Rwkl, I suggested a possible 10% drop for PCHEM because (1) just to b conservative (not to cause panic), (2) PCHEM being a fundamentally strong company is less affected by overall market decline as pointed out by u earlier.

In a bear market, the over all market will decline between 20% and 80%. This is not a prediction, I am merely stating what has been generally accepted by experts & professionals. How far will the KLCI decline?..... this I cannot predict, we will just have to wait & see what happens in the coming weeks or months.

I also did not go around i3 spreading fear as u claimed; I only commented at PCHEM & CIMB which so happen experienced heavy selling by EPF..... commenting at 2 places does not imply going around i3 spreading fear. My explanations here & at CIMB were merely in response to questions asked by others.... if nobody ask I won't give further explanation other than stating my observation about the market.

@TegasTSSB, the main institutional shareholders of CIMB are: Khazanah (26.3%); EPF (13.6%); PNB (10.7%); KWAP (6.5%).... altogether owning 57.1% of CIMB's shares. All FFs combined hold 9.1% of CIMB shares. That leaves 33.8% of the shares held by retailers. U can check these figures at:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Companies/CIMB-Group-Holdings-Bhd


As to which major shareholders buy or sell.... u can find the information at:

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/list-of-companies/plc-profile.html?stock_code=1023
(Click "View More" under Latest Announcements.)


From the above Bursa's company announcements, I noticed that EPF started selling heavily since 04 Apr 2019 almost every other day till recently (almost 1 month already) but the only institutional buyer is KWAP (only ocassionally). When EPF sold around 1 million shares, KWAP only bought around 200k shares (or considerably less).... the the balance was bought by retailers. So, to answer your question (who bought from EPF?)..... they were mostly absorbed by retailers.

EPF is not necessarily correct.... they may b wrong, but they are one of major market players that can affect the KLCI to a great extent. So it pays to take note of their actions (whether they r right or wrong). Use brain to include every possibility is better than thinking independently according to own biases.

EPF heavy selling is because of #2 & #3..... EPF traders are very experienced & know the market very well (ahead of other market players). They are anticipating a bear market in the making.... if the KLCI drop another 8% or 9% (bringing it down to 20% from its recent peak) then this correction officially becomes a bear market. 20% down is only the beginning of a bear market.... it could drop as much as 80% (happened b4 in previous bear market).

Who are the buyers? They are those who have never experienced losing money in a bear market. They think that @ RM5.12, the price is very close to its 5 years lowest & they are hoping to make huge profit should the price move up back to RM8 or RM9.