P.Lee I will take your advice and stay sideline for now. Will wait for price to come down.

Good to see that someone is sharing a little bit of FA as well. I also did some simple analysis myself. Correct me if I am wrong.

Lets assume 3rd quarter(ending June) comes out the same as 2nd quarter i.e. EPS 7.9sen. This will give 3rd and preceeding 3 quarters a total earning of 25.11 sen.

Based on the above assumption, JCY@ 1.43 is trading at PE of 5.69, which is below the PE of 6 some analysis has mentioned.

In another word:
@PE of 6, JCY would be trading @ 1.51
@PE of 8, JCY would be trading @ 2.01

Let assume the last quarter earnings, having lost its order back to its competitors, fall back to previous year last quarter earning of 1.29, this would still give a total full year EPS of 25.11sen.

Hence based on the above assumption, I believe its target price would be somewhere between 1.51 and 2.01 depending which PE is more acceptable by the market.

However, if we only take into consideration 1st two qtr earnings and ignore the remaining 2, then total earnings for the full year would be 15.92.

@1.43 JCY is trading @PE of 8.98

If market overall believe that JCY should be trading:
@PE of 6, we will see JCY trading around 0.96
@PE of 8, we will see JCY trading around 1.28

Therefore, I believe, by observing its price trend in up and coming weeks or months, ones can tell generally how the overall market value JCY.

Order que @ 1.38 not done today. JCY closed right @ the 20 EMA. May test 1.38 for support tomorrow given the unfavourable EU & US market. Target entry 1.38.

snsee: your email pls.

Namoyaki: The 1st scenario came true. ^_^

Not bad. see can hit 1.45 - 1.46 tomorrow or not.

may see a little pull back..... before further advance.

attempting to move past 20 EMA.

look at it go.

Believing in the sharks and cowboy thing won't get you anywhere. Perhaps by studying the daily tracker looking for a higher high and higher low can help more..

It could be the volume they collect from low + traders who were stuck and want to exit from here, who knows.

It dun really bother me at all. I am looking at the chart alone to see where it is going. I suppose that just to fool people into thinking what they want you to think.

Oh ya.......

sure got someone bought during the low, they just want to purge these people out from here.

Due to a number of uncertainties, both internal and external, my position in any counter will be very short. I will take a position only when I am sure it is going the direction as desired. You wouldn't jump on a bus or train heading for the opposite direction, would you?

diablo88: I disagree. It is how you interpret it that matters.

hard for me to give target cos the tools available on my intra day chart still quite primitive.

a short quick rally i should say.

on my 60 mins chart.

we may have a quick run-up as the MACD is about to cross above the 0 line. this can be a trade for day trader.

Frankly, is hard to say whether is safe or not. There are risks involved and it depends on how you react to it when market does not go your way. It has to do with the strategy you adopt. What I consider safe, may not be safe for other traders simply because we may have different strategy. All I can say is, the latest price movement fits into 1 of the 2 possible scenarios I have forecast earlier on when the price broke below 1.38.

on a daily chart, it is trading above 50 EMA but below the 20 EMA. It is critical to see its price support @ or above 1.38 (50 EMA).

JCY is now trading above the short term EMA on my 60 mins chart. as long as it can maintain above short term EMA over next few trading session, I believe it will be a turnaround.

my interest in this counter will remain for now.

with yesterday low being the new low for the past 20 days, whether this is a turn around or a technical rebound remains to be seen.

so many stocks are making u turn.

20 & 50 EMA converging on the daily chart. It will be a big move if the price can move past the 2 EMA.

Alam 1st target hit. next target 0.58

JCY attempting to move above 20 EMA on the 60mins chart. We may have a turn around if it successfully . resistance@ 1.38

volume has reduced significantly. A sign that supply has exhausted!

still early to call it g-o-

Ivory may see an up swing from here.

It is difficult to see the overall picture by just looking at factories production output alone. Order on hand and delivery dates would give a better idea of the next quarter revenue.

In this respect, I would prefer TA to FA because FA is subjective, to me at least.

and good volume too. The two usually go together. Ref. 3 - 4 April.

one of the trade set up I am looking for is when MACD successfully cross above the 0 line. Normally accompany with good price gain.

On the daily chart, MACD has cross under the 0 line and thus turn short term bearish.

JCY is now in a short term down trend, unless it breaks out of this short term down trend, my advice is do not take up any position unless you have the necessary skills to trade.

after broken below 1.38, JCY is now trading below both 20 & 50 EMA on the daily chart. unless it pulls a quick recovery above these short term ma, the short term EMAs will act as resistance each time the price rebound to hit the EMAs.

P.Lee: Like I say, it is different from the normal averaging down that you are referring to. in fact, liquidity involve will remain the same. and of course, personally i would only do this if the counter has fundamental and will reverse its course when things improved.

there is a different version of averaging down than that we normally aware of. You can still make money in a down trend if you master this skill. I guess that is what is happening here.

Frankly, i believe there are people still holding JCY believing in its fundamental. On the other hand, there are short terms traders who jump in neither based on fundamental nor technical, hoping for a winning trade. when the tides turn against them, they throw. i believe, the volume are mainly from this group of people. Just look at the T+4 volume, you will know.

dRsam@P.Lee: remember how low it went after the 1st quarter results out? From RM1.48 to RM 1.07. This time round, history is just repeating itself. From 1.62 to 1.33, coincidence? ~ 30sen. I can only conclude, market has factored in the 2nd quarter results before its release.

Namoyaki Takarajima: Will send you a copy of my chart when it is available.

usry: i am not so much into insider news. too much of it will cloud one's judgement. you may think that insider news are to your advantage, but often market may have factored that in. I believe this explained why the sell down after 2nd quarter results announcement. Technically speaking, the ups and down of share prices has to do with supply and demand. when there is no supply, prices go up. when there is no demand, prices go down.

you wouldnt be surprise if u know how.

agree.

oversold on 60 mins chart but not the daily chart.

chances are it may not fall below 1.33 given the candlestick pattern on the 60 mins chart. we may have a reversal. lets see

a close below 1.33 would means a possible change in trend.