Yeah, you guys should go read the 2 blog posts by this fund iqapex. I thought my research into Ideal was thorough but these guys are next level. Their analysis is so detailed and reinforces a lot of the things we have been saying in this thread for so long. I just wish they hadn’t posted the article before the QR release because now we won’t have the chance to accumulate cheaply anymore :(

spygame007 insider news, next QR loss 3mils. Guys, better watch out
01/08/2018 08:53

spygame007 1.25 now. price will further go down to rm1 before QR. i warn u guys before.
02/08/2018 16:30

spygame007 QR out. Loss 7mils
24/08/2018 17:52

Anything to say for yourself, @spygame007? Looks like your game is up!

QR out! 500% increase in y-on-y PAT and 400% increase in revenue! Another outstanding quarter!!!

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5893705

WE WERE RIGHT ALL ALONG, GUYS! Numbers don't lie, only people do ;)

PS : Anyone seen spygame007? HAHAHA

... or just a lack of sellers.

100K buy order @ RM1.21 lol and some of you here were saying that RM1.20 is the TP.

No such thing as a short-term TP. Or even a long-term one. If the operator decides to push, no saying when it will start or stop. Only thing certain is that it’s defineitly going up. Just hold on and enjoy the ride :)

Honestly, I feel like suing CIMB. As a trader, the graph is the MOST important thing for us to make decisions and for errors like this to happen is completely unacceptable! Very disappointed.

For those of you using iTrade v2.0 and the iPhone app, please note that the graph does NOT update to show transaction volumes over 40K. This has happened for the past 5 days since Monday. It's a system problem and CIMB's helpdesk has confirmed this.

Just be careful when you are trading - always look at the "Time & Sales" panel to check for any big volume transactions being made before you buy/sell. This morning @ 9:41:05, there was a buy order for 88K that appeared on the left panel but did NOT appear on the graph. Same thing for 2 buy transactions @ 9:42:59 of 50K and 49.9K. So weird to see no retail buyers following through immediately after those transactions.

Please note that the problem does not seem to affect the intraday chart of iTrade v2.1.

Pre-opening buy order demand looking very, very strong! Let's hope it sustains throughout the day :)

I don't like to speculate but I spoke to a friend of mine who went to university with me and is now a junior portfolio manager for a closed-end fund and he confirmed that this stock is deeply undervalued.

He says the only problem is that not many people know about it since it's a small cap firm hence why volume has been low. But its fundamentals are very, very strong and will definitely appreciate in the coming months. So comforting to hear something like this from an investment professional!

Yeap, very strong support at RM1. Good end to the day. Should be a lot better tomorrow with weak hands out of the picture after today's earlier selldown.

If they wanted to goreng, it wouldn't have come this far and there would have been many, many sellers quickly disposing if they felt it's overvalued. But everyday (except for yesterday), buy > sell volume % by at least 20-30%. Doesn't seem like goreng to me when there is genuine demand. Plus, this counter is still way undervalued compared to its peers.

I was right last night when I said this counter was oversold. Let's see what the next few days brings.

Likely oversold. Due for a rebound tomorrow.

I don't know if any one else of you is facing this problem but I'm using CIMB iTrade and when a buy order is filled, you can see the quantity on the "Time & Sales" section of the stock tracker but the volume chart does NOT update to reflect the transaction.

Only happens with large volume transactions so just be careful and don't trust the chart completely. Same thing happened yesterday and I had to call up the helpline and they confirmed it was a problem and they will fix it ASAP.

Just a reminder to always double check in the "Time & Sales" panel to see if any large transactions were made but not subsequently reflected on the volume chart.

Just be patient and hold, guys. It has rallied a lot already over the past few days. Just needs a breather now to shake out all the weak hands before it continues upwards :)

@Yael Jasper, you might've exited too early. Huge buy orders of nearly 500k at one go @ 1.09 and 1.10 earlier. Don't think whoever is pushing this stock up will be done anytime soon.

PE is not 125. You cannot count using the quarterly earnings. MUST always use annual earnings to calculate PE.

Sincerely hoping those of you who haven't bought did so at RM1.05 during the minor retracement just now. Was too overheated earlier but don't think there'll be a better opportunity once the market resumes tomorrow. After flying under the radar for a week, there should be a lot more volume since it was a Top 10 active counter today and only one of 3 stocks to post >5% gains in today's bloodbath market. Not quite a hidden gem anymore?

Agree with @nagachan. The amount of baseless, negative comments on this company's forum is too high. And some of it are absolute rubbish. What people don't realise is that small retail investors like all of us here don't really have an influence on the price with our small buy/sell orders so there's no point to try and say things to get other people here not to buy. Small players not buying isn't going to suddenly halt the momentum and bring the price down - only large sell orders do.

If you want to make money, just follow the fund managers/operators and ride the momentum while there is technical strength - not hope for it to come down so you can buy cheap. By the time it comes down, the rally would have been long over and you will be left with a cheap stock that doesn't even move. In the end, its only you who loses out. Nobody else. There have been at least 8 or 9 entry points over the last 5 days and if all you do is keep hoping for the price to come down, you are never going to make any money in the stock market. So keep hoping and let others who are willing to take some risks profit - just don't talk rubbish because it helps nobody.

And if you want to know why this stock has been doing so well, just read my previous comments.

Resistance of nearly 1 million shares cleared at RM0.99-1.00 even when the market is down 15 points! What an achievement - no turning back now!!!

To all those who's still waiting for it to drop back to RM0.90, good luck ;) Hahaha

@spchon2 ignore what @tradesman is saying. Just scroll up, read his comments and you'll see that he sold early @ 0.91 and now cannot take it to see the price being so high. @peterchu is even worse - sold for 0.01 profit and now kicking himself so he's also hoping it will drop to 0.7. I have no idea how its possible for anyone to just profit 0.01 from this stock. Over the past 4 days, there have been many, many entry points but you didn't buy because you wanted it to drop to your target price. As a result, now you have earned little yet can still hope for bad things to happen to other shareholders. No words for you both.

4 straight days of gains is very impressive for ANY stock so a slight pullback of a few cents is quite normal (there was already a slight correction one hour before closing on Thursday and again an hour before closing on Friday) but to even think that it will hit 0.91 or anything less than 0.90 after such strong momentum is crazy. There will need to be equally strong selling pressure (high volume sales) for it to even touch that price. And no, any correction will have nothing to do with the Turkish crisis. I don't even see how this company or even any other company on Bursa is related to it at all but just goes to show how irrational and "dengki" some people on this forum can be.

I don't understand how some of you can even compare Revenue with Mi, JHM and Dufu?? They're completely different companies employ different business models offering different products to different markets. Dufu is involved in manufacturing hard disks, JHM produces electrical components & LEDs while Mi makes sorting machines for the semiconductor industry. The only way Revenue is similar to all 3 is that they are all listed as tech companies - nothing else. If you're going to compare Revenue with those 3, you might as well compare it with the 90 other companies listed in the Bursa tech sector. Out of those, there are only 2 companies that you could say has comparable products, markets and business models with Revenue - and they're MPAY and GHLSYS.

MPAY has managed to double revenue y-on-y over the past 2 quarters while GHLSYS has been experiencing steady profit and profit margin growth for over 2 years. But they don't even come close to Revenue in terms of net profit and profit margin growth whereby Revenue's net profit has grown consistently at an average yearly rate of 75% over the past 3 years and its profit margins are no less than 25% - almost 2.5x that of its competitors. And when you see GHLSYS trading at 60x PE (can't compare with the PE of MPAY since it's loss making), are you all even surprised that the price has been surging over the past few days?

After listing, there appeared to be massive resistance at 0.795 but once that was cleared, it has only been moving in one direction with just minor retracement episodes. That plus the fact that most of the surges have been the result of high volume buy transactions, there can honestly only be one explanation - fund accumulation. And if funds are indeed accumulating, even at RM1 when Revenue will be trading at approx. 30x FPE for FY18, it is still only half the PE of GHLSYS - the supposed market leader before Revenue's IPO!

Also, always remember that you cannot judge a technology company in exponential growth industries by the absolute value of its PE alone. I'm almost certain that many of the growth funds that have been mopping up the stock over the past few days are not going to bother too much about what Revenue earns this year or next because they think that paying such prices today will justify their investments in the future. Especially considering Revenue's growth rate and prospects in an industry that has little competition right now and almost limitless prospects in our developing economy that's transitioning into a cashless society (most developed countries have already reached this stage - around 50% of transactions in Europe & North America today are cashless). In fact, look at all the big tech stocks consistently trading at what some might consider as "excessive PE" and tell me if their price has ever dropped due to over-valuation? No, because its the premium you pay for (almost) guaranteed growth.

Maybe some of you are just upset that you missed the boat but judging by how Revenue has been surging for the past 4 days, I think it's only a matter of time before the price doubles to RM1.50 in the coming weeks if our suspicions are correct and funds are indeed accumulating so it may still not be too late!

Anyways, going back to the case of the warrants, I think those of you who subscribe to the WhatsApp message groups of certain Malaysian stock market gurus would have already known by now that the reason Mr Yap only sold some of the warrants was to convert the remainder. And yes, I did the maths and it more or less checks out. Selling those warrants would net him around RM5.28 million, which is a significant portion of the RM7.5 million that he would need to raise if he does intend to convert the remaining warrants he acquired in June into mother shares. I've tried to confirm this with other people who have connections with the company and they have all given me some reasonable affirmation that its true. But I urge you not to take my word for it and please seek your own clarifications. My source also tells me that NH Foods is also considering converting a sizeable portion of their warrant holdings to be used as working capital in the short-term. It's actually the most logical explanation as to why just one director has been selling down his warrants. I guess the only way to confirm this theory is to wait and see if a large number of new shares are listed and the executive chairman's shareholding increases within the coming few weeks.

I just think that those of you here that knew about this (and I know there are a number of you here who do) should be ashamed of yourself for not sharing the news and causing even more panic and pointless speculation (yes, its not 100% confirmed but it remains the most likely explanation for everything that has happened in the past few weeks). Whether it's entirely true or not is debatable but I still feel that some of you should have let the others in this forum at least know about it and then let them make their own judgment on whether to act upon the information they have received. It's far better than the baseless rumours that circulated in its place instead. This reminds me of the time when the steep one-day price drop first happened on the 25th of July and everyone here started to speculate that short sellers were manipulating the stock price although official Bursa statistics for the day clearly showed that not even a single Lay Hong share was shorted either on that day or even during any of the days prior. I was myself a victim on that day and immediately panic-sold my holdings after reading some of the comments on this thread. Anyways, should today's rally continue over the next few days, I will look forward to accumulating at a cheaper cost price than I did the last time as I do see long-term potential in this company. Although I do feel that the momentum is very much against this stock at present and a bad quarter due to ramadhan could ruin any hope of a recovery any time soon. Either way, good luck everyone!

Alright, I don't know why this hasn't been brought up yet (I have not scrolled far back enough to read all the comments) but I think it should be public knowledge by now that the reason the executive chairman sold only 1/3 (approx 14.628 mil) of the additional warrants he had purchased in June (approx 33.52 mil) was so that he could use the proceeds to convert the remaining 18.9 million warrants into mother shares and in the process, inject approx RM7.5 million (interest-free) into the company to be used as working capital - which is why warrants are even issued to begin with - so that funds can be raised cheaply in exchange for additional equity and potential future earnings.

It is also why there was no selling of shares by any of the directors and no clarification statement either (as such a move did not arise from circumstances involving material implications for the company that investors needed to know about immediately). Although I would argue that not issuing a statement caused even more panic and is therefore not sound management policy as it clearly shows that they don't mind seeing ordinary shareholders panic rather than contain the crisis in the moment. Unless of course... they had a hidden agenda and wanted the share price to remain depressed so that friends and family could accumulate while it was cheap - but that's just me speculating!

Despite what most of you may think, I actually highly doubt that most company owners even have the time to worry about the daily fluctuations of their company's stock price since many hold their ownership stakes indefinitely. Most of the time, when you see a director making a one-off sale of 1-2 million shares (which will usually be just a small percentage of their total shareholdings), 9 times out of 10, it's intended for personal reasons so that paper wealth can be realised and utilised to purchase a usable asset, so say to buy a car or a house for example. This happens most of the time but most people start to panic when they see a director selling and start dumping their own shares instead thinking that something bad REALLY is happening. I'm not saying bad things don't happen but the only time we should be worried is if we see directors continuously dumping a sizeable portion of their shareholdings (actual shares, not warrants) over a prolonged period of time (more than a few days). That's a good reason to be genuinely worried.

So whose fault is that @peterchu? Yours or the counter's?

I heard the same thing about some growth funds trying to push the price up to RM1.50 or so (idk abut RM2 as some of you all have quoted) by the end of the month. To them, maybe the counter is still undervalued since its peers are trading at an average PE of 30x. GHLSYS is almost double that at 60x. Very normal for tech companies as investors are looking for future growth prospects anyways. And Revenue probably has one of the best business models and profit margins in an industry that is only going to grow further in the coming years so not surprised that once it cleared the resistance of RM0.80, it has only been one way traffic.

Alright, let's see. More than happy to take you up on that offer!

High selling pressure? 147k shares bought vs 3k sold = 98% buy rate. Need a calculator, my friend? Haha

Don't think you'll need it anyways. Don't even think you care. You strategy ever since you started commenting here has been to make ludicrous claim and hope the more gullible ones and the ones without holding power will sell down so you can collect for cheap. And looks like it's backfiring spectacularly. Joke's on you (Y)

@spygame007 69K is huge volume to you? LOL and you say you know technical analysis.

Not going to waste my time replying to your childish comments anymore. I hope that you will never be able to buy this counter cheaply because you quite simply don't deserve it.

I'm a technician myself and as long as the downtrend is not supported by volume, it is not conclusive. I think everyone else here can see that too. As I've mentioned, they're not stupid. Only those with very limited knowledge both on fundamentals + technical analysis will pander to fear mongers like you and sell out of fear. Only time will tell.

And I like how you conveniently changed the subject from insider information about Q3 being a loss when cornered to how the price will keep going down because of TA - both of which are false. The more you comment, the more it becomes clear that your assertions are baseless and that you're not even a sophisticated (if I can even call you that) operator. Today's buy volume is still 100% btw. Clearly, I'm not the only one who think anything under RM1.30 is undervalued?

@spygame007 that's very cute haha

Also, unlike you, I don't and will never need insiders. The numbers don't lie. Everything is in the annual/quarterly reports. Only the mentally lazy and those eager to get rich quick rely on insiders - and often end up losing more than they make. So all the best selling off your shares (if you have any that is, though judging by your comments, you are merely fear-mongering to cause people to sell and drive the price down even lower so you can collect presumably?). I'm sure there are a number of us waiting to buy and profit in a few weeks!

And I really doubt there are any syndicates eyeing this stock (yet). Again, the numbers don't lie as there isn't much volume or news regarding this counter to be found anywhere. If this was a syndicate stock, you'd find others like spygame07 spreading unsubstantiated rumours, either true or false to move the stock price. None of that happening at the moment. Retail investors just selling small number of lots here and there due to the lack of upward movement over the past two weeks. That's all.

@GayauQwe can you help tell us why you think so?

@klseinvestor89 it is normal for PBT from construction to be lower. Go check the previous QR and you will see the same thing and yet, Gadang's price still fly. If you have been following Gadang for years (or even any construction counter for that matter), you will see that this is very normal, even in some of the bigger firms. Much of it has to do with the accrual method of accounting used based on percentage of completion method under MFRS and MASB. Construction/property companies are not like ordinary companies selling goods whereby a lower PBT usually implies higher cost of sales. What's more important is to see whether the project has returned a profit over the lifetime of a project. For example, just take a look at the property sector in this QR - this quarter 100% profit but almost 100% loss in Q2. If you were judging the company's performance by the drop in PBT after Q2, your evaluation would be flawed and you would've sold early. So just be careful about these things!

And what do you mean by no explanation for drop in PBT in this quarter? I think it's very clear from the P/L statement that it was caused by the item listed as "other expenses" which has increased by around 10 million was then very clearly explained as being the one-off impairment cost in the notes. ESOS expense isn't really significant to me because it's recurring even in the last quarter.

Sometimes, valuing construction firms is not so straight forward and if you don't have at least some knowledge in accounting, your judgments will be poor. My advice is when in doubt and if you have nobody to consult, don't try to be too smart but instead, follow the insiders or the general direction of the market/sector and you will rarely go wrong.

@bnmacai is right. I really think all of you are mistaken. Feel free to refer to this list :

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/misc/system/equity_market_statistics/securities_equities_rss.pdf

It's published by Bursa and lists down the exact number of shares that were sold short at the end of every day. Lay Hong is not even on the list for ANY of the days, even today. So unless one of you here is an actual short seller and can independently verify that this official information published by Bursa is incorrect, I really think there is something very wrong with this counter and insiders are dumping like crazy. I guess we will know in a few days but until then, let's not speculate and make this worse for any one else.

Yes, but most importantly profit was only down due to non-recurring, one-off impairment costs amounting to some RM10.49 million in relation to investment properties. Subtract this and the PAT for the current quarter will far exceed that of BOTH the previous and the corresponding quarter of FY17 - implying that income from core operations is still very much experiencing steady growth.

But even as it is, both q-on-q revenue growth and ytd revenue still increased by approx 10% despite the challenging circumstances that the company had to operate in with a slowdown in construction as well as property development sectors over the past few months (profits for property development somehow actually increased by almost 100%!). With that in mind, I think this has been a very commendable performance.

Will continue to hold and ride this construction stock rally that we're going through right now for a few more weeks until valuations normalise once again. This stock is still deeply undervalued IMO, esp with an order book that size + new income streams from its construction and utility divisions in Q1 and Q2 of FYE19 respectively.

One huge 100K sell order @ RM1.36. Almost 99% sure the big fish is trying to shake out all the weak holders before the next run-up. Watch that 100k sell order magically disappear very soon but good luck to all those with not much holding power!

You cannot profit in this counter if you want to play short-term. The big fish will be happy to buy from you below market price. If you look at the daily charts, the price surge with volume only happens once every 3-4 days - just enough time to shake out all the small time contra players so be wise and careful!

Still very low volume. All the T+3 stragglers from Monday being forced sold this morning. Only a matter of time now before the big fish come back.

Well done, guys! Not as bad as I expected. In fact, very strong despite finishing with a red candle.

No big fish sellers + good buy support from RM1.38 and below. That should be the new support level. Highest sell transaction was just 19k right at the end. Safe to say most of the sellers today were the small-time retail players who most probably had to cover for T+3. Doesn't look like the big fish were selling at all judging by the very low volume.

In fact, looking at the daily charts, every time there has been a minor retracement, the price almost always rebounded higher within a day or two so looks like @The_Reds was right. Big fish just waiting for the retail players to dispose before gobbling up more.

Should edge up higher towards RM1.60 in the coming days if the resistance (sell orders) between RM1.41-RM1.45 can be cleared!

@The_Reds yes, dye7735 is spot on. As of Jan 2018, IUBB also includes 50.5% of i-Global (holding company for One Foresta and Forestville), and therefore approx half of all sales and profits accrued from those 2 projects + that of i-Santorini that which it had owned in its entirety from before. Some of those sales & profits were already included in the last QR and will continue to be included without exception until completion in 2021.

And thanks! I think it's my responsibility to keep the community informed in a constructive manner - although I will stop short of telling you to buy this stock. I still think people need to their own research before making important investment decisions. Investing is not about blindly gambling on companies based on how you feel or some rumours you hear from friends in the coffee shop. At the end of the day, the numbers do not lie but people do. If you do your research and analysis, you can never be deceived and you will always profit in the long run.

@apolloang who are you trying to fool? And what do you mean by "tak laku"? If you're talking about sales rate, then I'm calling your bluff because even as of late 2016, 80% of sales for Santorini were already completed and from what I understand, Tower A was completely sold out even back then (info available online). I will be happy to disclose the exact sales figure as of 31/05 that I managed to get from one of the sales team members when I called if not for the fact that it could count as insider information (since it's not available publicly) and I could be investigated by Bursa for it if I'm reported. But if any one of you are interested, you can do the exact same thing I did and just give them a ring and you'll know for yourself what the figures are for all 3 properties listed under IUBB - Santorini, Foresta & Forestville. What I can say (without risk of investigation) is that I would not have invested if sales was anything less than 85% (and this is my minimum threshold btw - actual figures could be much higher) - but again, feel free to do your own research on this.

And on the other hand, if you're talking about occupancy rate "tak laku", two things -

(1) Who are you trying to fool again? Completion for Santorini is only expected in Q1 2020 so what exactly DID you see when you say "tak laku"?

(2) I don't think occupancy rate should concern us as shareholders of IUBB as we will not receive any recurring income from tenants living in the flats. What owners choose to do with the flats they purchase, whether its for their own long-term investment or to be let out is their business.

The only risk I see is that sub-prime borrowers who take out a loan to buy the unit and depend entirely on rental income to repay their loan could potentially be at risk of default if occupancy rates are low (and even then, its too early to make a judgment call on this). But this is very unlikely simply because banks usually have very stringent rules and regulations to ensure that their borrowers are credit-worthy and are able to service their debt commitments regularly. As a matter of fact, even Tan Sri Alex Ooi has said in many of his interviews (including the one that I've shared previously) that banks should be MORE lenient with loans, especially to young people who are first-time buyers. That's the chairman himself who is indirectly saying that the current rules and regulations are too strict. Even if you look at the balance sheet, the provision for bad debts at present is very, very low - indicating management's confidence that their customers will be able to repay their loans in a timely manner.

@apolloang also, in your first comment, you first say that the units tak laku and then you immediately go on to say that since anyone can buy affordable home, it'll be packed and that's no good. Surely then if most people can afford it and and its packed, surely then it must be laku??? Not only do your statements directly contradict each other but I also genuinely feel that you have no idea what you're talking about. Anyways, I'm not here to attack you or you flawed logic. I just think it is very irresponsible of you to be making brash statements without due diligence. Please do so next time so that we can have a more informed discussion in this public forum. Thanks!

@fattmoney The_Reds is correct. He is under no obligation to take it private and doesn't seem to be interested in doing so anyways judging by his below-market offer price. In fact, as of the final offer acceptance closing time on 04/06, only 1k shares and 500 warrants accepted the offer. LOL. Again, I suspect this was just a formality.

You can view the full press release here : http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=87507&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

And yes, I do acknowledge that there is some level of speculation involved in this counter. In fact, most PH-linked counters in Penang have been flying post GE14 - even in this bearish market. EWEIN from RM0.39 to RM0.76, VERTICE from RM0.83 to RM1.00 and ofc the star of the show has been IDEAL from RM0.60 to RM1.30. And of all these counters, Ideal is probably in the best position to experience organic growth and thrive even WITHOUT the need for government contracts unlike the other counters. Any additional government contract like the one it won in Kampung Kastam is just a bonus!

Even discounting future asst injections, securing of additional government housing project and the development of existing land-banks, based on my calculations... this counter is easily worth at least RM2.12 minimum - based on an estimated full year FY18 trailing PE ratio of 5.0 (still way below the industry average of 7.5 - and I don't even think we should classify developers of low-cost/affordable homes like Ideal where demand>supply with the many other ordinary developers of mid-range and luxury homes >RM500k!). And even then, this is based on the MOST conservative estimate that current EPS of 13.3c is maintained over the next 3 quarters and doesn't even account for the fact the company holds very little debt, possesses good returns on equity or that management is experienced and has proven to be benevolent towards its shareholders.

And I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who sees this, right? There is good reason that ever since the last QR was released, the stock price has gone up by more than 100% in the past month alone after stagnating for so long with low volumes in the RM0.60 - RM0.70 range. Surely this cannot all just be speculation???

Furthermore, try explaining the days where there are huge single buy order transactions (>150k) and yet, from the time I've been monitoring the stock until today, there still has not even been a single >75k sell transaction in one go. The highest single sell I've come across is 50k. And even then, its only happened once or at most, twice. Still don't believe me? Go look at the charts on the days where the price dropped. You'll see that volume is low whereas on days when the price spiked, volume is always consistently very high. Doesn't take a genius or rocket scientist to understand what is happening here tbh.

@apolloang but are those condos included here in the listed entity of IUBB? You're confusing IUBB with Ideal Property Group (the private company that holds the higher-end portfolio among others, including the condos in Relau). They are NOT financially-related. I think I've explained this quite adequately in my previous comments yesterday.

And as for Ken, did you see my explanations above? I just had a cursory look at Ken's QRs and decided in under 10 minutes that it's not a stock I would ever invest in. And I'm really sorry if you did but that is something you have to live with I guess. Your explanation as to how Ideal and Ken are similar is overly simplistic I'm afraid and if that's how you judge and value companies, then I'm not surprised if you chose to invest in Ken over the many other companies out there with stronger fundamentals and more robust earnings visibility.

@apolloang I highly doubt it, apolloang. I had to make sure before I invested too. Here's why I think it isn't but feel free to demonstrate otherwise :

1) Pump and dump (P&D) syndicates tend to operate exclusively in penny stocks and low value counters. It makes the reward of a huge profit from just a few cents increase in the share price much more enticing to newbies and amateurs who are foolish enough to buy and get trapped.

2) P&D syndicates also tend to target counters with very poor fundamentals as it is firstly, easy for them to accumulate from existing shareholders (who are happy to let go of their shares) without having to pay a premium and then subsequently, get their victims to do the same without much hassle. It is only when significant buying has happened does the share start to gain traction and the price starts to accelerate upwards towards the final few periods of the "pump" phase.

In comparison, if you had monitored Ideal's share price closely when it first took off after the last QR, you would've quickly realised that there were very few sellers on the market to begin with - which in turn, caused buyers to keep bidding higher and higher for the few shares that were available. I would know because I was one of them! That is what caused the price to increase by about 5-6 cents everyday with gradually increasing volume as there was very little profit taking since I also suspect that those who were buying were doing so for the long-term.

It is only now that we are finally seeing some profit-taking from the initial buyers since the price has increased by almost 50% over the past month. If my prediction is correct and there are indeed more long-term buyers than sellers for this counter, then any drop in price will only be temporary as the buyers start to see value in lower prices and start mopping up the excess (in fact, as I type this, the share price has shot back up to its previous support level of RM1.30 with huge buy orders queued at RM1.29). Again, feel free to draw your own conclusions.

3) Last but not least, a dump would mean "sharks" disposing MOST of their holdings in a short span of time. This is usually characterised by unexplainable + extreme drops in price AND heavy volume as the "small fishes" also look to sell their positions during the plunge. If it's just a drop in price that is not accompanied by a surge in volume, then it cannot be considered as a dump and is very likely to reverse subsequently.

Again, as I have pointed out in my earlier comments, the reason for the drop is very likely due to retail players disposing their positions having anticipated a price surge from buying action by the sharks that did not materialise (you think sharks are stupid? They know that without any support, the price will eventually fall back to previous levels where they can accumulate for even cheaper prices rather than paying current prices to desperate sellers).

PS : When I say "shark", I am not referring to P&D syndicates. I'm referring to those big players who seem to be continuously accumulating Ideal's share price at opportunistic levels when there is little buying/selling action and the market is calmer. Another example of this happened right after the Ideal AGM on 11/06 at around 12PM whereby 250K shares were bought in just 10 mins. I'm almost certain these are not syndicates looking to make a quick buck but rather big players who attended the AGM, heard something they really liked before deciding to take up such a huge position (likely) for the long-term. Can't be just coincidence, right?

The reason the price plunged today is likely due to the fact that there were not enough buyers in the market to add liquidity at the different price levels after the share's rapid surge on Friday. This morning at opening, there were only about 50k shares between Friday's closing price of RM1.32 and RM1.40. And retail players were quick to mop up all of these in the opening few minutes thus creating a huge spread between buy and sell price levels that meant the price had no support whatsoever - which subsequently caused a rapid decline in the following half hour. Take a look at the technical charts and it will tell you the same story. The share price has not been given a chance to consolidate yet and I honestly think it should, especially after the rapid increase it experienced on Friday.

In fact, if you look over the last 2 weeks, you will notice that the "big sharks" who have been accumulating (I'm talking about buy orders of >100k in one go) only do so once the price has settled at a particular level over a few hours and the retail/intraday sellers who were looking to make a quick buck have been chased out. After all, why pay more for such a huge quantity of shares when all you have to do is wait a few hours till the intraday traders get restless and offer their shares for much lower prices?? If I were a shark, I'd probably do the same tbh. A good example of this actually happened last Thursday whereby the share price had been consolidating for around 3 days at the RM1.18 level before a shark swooped in and mopped up around 190k shares in just 5 minutes at 4.35PM. Coincidentally, that also caused retail players to have FOMO and start buying like crazy on Friday morning (you know they are retail by the volume of shares they trade - usually under 20k), which in turn pushed the share price way too high in such a short span of time. And ofc, the sharks are now nowhere to be seen!

Therefore, my advice is this. If you here to make a quick buck - FORGET IT. The relative illiquidity of this counter + the lack of buyers at higher price levels after a quick run-up means that you're going to have to offer lower prices to dispose your positions quickly. At the end of the day, you WILL lose and only those sharks who have been patient enough to wait for sellers like you to cut costs and exit the market quickly to cover your losses stand to gain. I've been following this stock since the last QR was released and the pattern is always the same. If you want to profit, gradually buy and average up along the way. Otherwise, you're better off playing with more liquid counters on the Top Actives list. Just my 2 cents!

@fattmoney No, not at all. I wouldn't even say the share price is depressed considering it has shot up by almost 100% (0.65 to 1.30) since the announcement was made. The MGO was triggered when Tan Sri Alex and his wife upped their stake beyond the 50% threshold by acquiring the stakes of the 2nd and 3rd largest shareholder in April 2018. The offer is merely a formality. What is important to note however is that the offer was intentionally priced below market value at RM0.54 for the mother share and RM0.01 for the warrants respectively so as to deter shareholders from taking up the offer - which actually makes sense considering the ESOS scheme for employees is only feasible if there is a market for those shares, and taking the company private is going to put the entire scheme at risk, which I don't think they're prepared to do.

More importantly, I think if they really wanted to take the company private, they could've done it long ago even before they injected the 2 property parcels in late 2017/early 2018 yet they chose not to. My own reading of the situation is that they're probably wealthy enough from their own private holdings in Ideal Prop Group and hence, see more benefit in keeping IUBB listed (which could include sharing their wealth with friends and family who own IUBB shares - take note that the holdings of the Top 30 shareholders have more or less not changed in the past 3 years).

Last but not least, just a disclaimer. Everything I have written in all my posts is my personal viewpoint of this company that has been formed after many countless hours painstakingly researching and reading almost every official public document that has been published by IUBB via Bursa announcements over the past few years. I have not been paid by anyone to do such a thing and my posts are NOT meant to be investment advice for any one of you. As always, you should always invest at your own risk and ONLY after you have done your own extensive research on the company. Good luck!

Tan Sri Alex is rumoured to be very close to current finance minister Lim Guan Eng and also contributed RM1 million to Tabung Harapan. Additionally, Ideal has also recently planned and submitted this new affordable home project in Balik Pulau for approval - https://www.penangpropertytalk.com/2018/06/affordable-balik-pulau-ideal-property-group/. 



Here’s also a little more on Tan Sri Alex if you want to know more about his background and Ideal Property Group as a whole - http://www.focusmalaysia.my/Property/alex-ooi-aims-high-via-ideal. I found it to be the most informative of all the articles published online recently about him and the group (and there isn't much to go by really).

The only million dollar question right now is seeing that the owners themselves have lots to gain and little to lose, what other cash flow positive projects could they possibly inject into IUBB in the future? Although this company is fundamentally sound, I am actually convinced that the rapid price rise in recent weeks has more to do with speculation over the owners’ political clout and influence back in Penang than it has to do with the company’s revenues/profits and healthy balance sheet (after all, when did most average Malaysians look into fundamentals before investing anyways? HAHA).

As some of the other users of this forum have already pointed out, Tan Sri Alex Ooi is extremely well-connected in Penang. Its been barely 2 months since the elections and we are already seeing him reap the rewards as a result of his strong ties with the state and federal governments. Here’s a good example of it : https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/06/21/fast-tracking-stalled-housing-plans-pr1ma-projects-offering-3000-units-at-two-locations-in-penang-to/.

More information about the project : https://www.penangpropertytalk.com/2018/06/first-penang-pr1ma-project-to-begin-end-of-this-year/.

There is also little doubt that the doubling of revenues and profit from the last quarter was largely down to the injection of Foresta and Forestville by the owners into the listed entity. The revenues/profit from the last quarter (Q1) could not have doubled and be sustained by that of Santorini from the previous quarter (Q4) alone. What is interesting however is that of all their ongoing projects, the owners chose to inject two of their better-performing (in terms of sales - just give the Ideal sales department a call and they’ll be happy to boast about it haha. I certainly did!) semi-affordable high development projects into IUBB, before then increasing their own stake in the company to 54%.



And as we’re all well aware, the Malaysian property market is pretty soft at present but interestingly, this does not apply to affordable housing (homes priced <RM500k) whereby demand continues to outstrip supply as per Bank Negara’s housing watch website (housingwatch.my - it’s a fantastic website if you’re looking for more information about the state of Malaysia’s housing market. Very clean analysis and lots of graphs/charts to simplify raw data!).

Is it a coincidence then that of the 8 or 9 ongoing projects they had at the time, they specifically chose to inject just the 2 aforementioned affordable home projects into IUBB and not the others? Especially since they will also start granting out ESOS options for employees to directly benefit from the company’s material success very soon? Feel free to draw your own conclusions.