For trader is simple, focus on technical analysis, sentiment & liquidity, fundamental is secondary. For long term investors (3-5 years), you have to expand your fundamental "analysis" beyond one year.

OCK biz model is simple and straight forward:

1. To be a independent towerco via greenfield (Myanmar) and brownfield (Vietnam)

2. To grow in number of towers + cost optimisation + tenancy ratio

3. To grow to sufficient towers via conventional bank financing

4. Once, sufficient in size, monetise via IPO, pay down loans and used additional equity to expand further.

5. Buying OCK (or its warrants) today is like buying a towerco biz at "pre IPO" price. More M&A in the towerco sector is expected.

Added some towers at 30.5 when volume is super low. OCK is the beneficiary of telco's capex to improve telco's infra (due to technology upgrade) and divestment of towers.

Please don't annualise last qtr. ATE stocks earnings are uneven (not seasonal either). Management indicates second half is much busier than first half. Co is expanding into its adjacent floor space and getting more engineers. Growth is expected for 1-2 years. ROE 30% + Net Profit Margin is 50%. There are not many stocks with such strong metrics and growing double digits.

calm before a storm. fasten up.

Taking into account projects in hand today, I will not be surprised the average price EPS 20 sen +(average for next 3 years FYE18-20). Fair value should exceed RM1.60 per share.

Many stocks are in hibernation mode. For longer term investors, it should not be their concern. Just have to wait it out like FD. Do you look at your FD everyday?

Those who trades, should feel worry of the latest qtr and sell when it is below their expectation. Those who have longer horizon of 1-2 years, have to see the whole year results before decision is made to continue holding. It may be too impulsive to buy or sell based on one quarter of results. What happen if next quarter improve 30%? Buy again?

2Q will be a positive surprise. 3Q will even be better. 4Q will confirm OCK growth is real.

Tx VFTRADER. Very comprehensive report.

VFTRADER - unable to open the link. Please resend.

ZaiZai - yes, profit a bit low (OCK should be able to improve it), however, the depreciation is about RM16-18m. So the EBITDA/cash flow is not too bad. RM7.4m + RM17m = RM24.4m p.a.

Accumulated some @ 30.5sen based on RHB:
1) RM90m build and leaseback with Mytel
2) Mytel became 3rd tenant (no figures given)
3) Telenor clear another 100 sites for deployment
4) Vietnam continue to ramp up new BTS
5) Possible M&A
(mostly are value for longer term)

RHB's report

http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2017/08/10/1506167321-222268158.pdf

I do not agree with RHB using enlarged share base (to calculate value per share) on assumption that all warrant holders (264m) convert into ordinary shares. In reality, warrants normally traded at premium few years before expiry (in this case 12-15%), and held by mainly retail investors, CONVERSION is NOT LIKELY.

voting machine vs weighing machine principle.

33 sen, still a bargain. With CAGR about 30% for next few years, PE 29 is not extreme. For tower biz, EV/EBITDA multiple is accepted as market valuation (Axiata sold Edotco at 12.5x). Only half of the biz can use PE (the non-tower biz).

while the PE looks great, anyone can enlighten me what is the free cash flow for next 1-5 years, just rough estimates will do. The notes just mentioned outstanding borrowings about RM1.4b, interest is roughly RM120m (for 5 years).

top up more @ 30 sen, growing biz model (more towers+BTS, higher tenancy towers+BTS and improving cost efficiency in Vietnam) + sustainable cash flow. Focus on the EBITDA multiple growth (one of the key metrics).

Reminded me of Gadang when it dropped from RM1.80 to RM1.20 (pre-bonus/split/foc warrants) due to one quarter of lower than expected results (construction and property profits are volatile and accounting treatments mislead participants) and lack of interest from retailers/fund managers.

Deemed as good opportunity for accumulation since it dropped from peak of 41 sen to 30 sen, especially for new participants.

Focus on the game, not the score board.

Qrtly results will be out today, although it has come to past. Its history tough, what is more important and relevant is Gadang going to have better results over the next 2-3 years (than 2016 & 2017). So, hang on tight.

@zai zai thanks. I guess renting is out of the question (OCK may not have so many built towers in the rural areas as mentioned?). Hence, likely build and leaseback, but yet to see any announcements?

@VFTRADER, is OCK renting to them? Or building for them? Or Build and leaseback from them?

@zaizai, if Mytel rents 300 sites from OCK, the upside in earnings is greater than what analysts expected. Upside will be good. Great to accumulate warrants at 31sen (closing today)

Mr Tong Kooi Onn wrote a good piece in The Financial Edge weekly, on investing "fairy tales". Fedex, DHL, all doing PE 14-19x. Research said CAGR is only 11%, although can double with Government intervention. Finally, the Guru's guru said with facts and figures. Bravo.

Article in Focus Malaysia today. Invested about RM100m in limestones mining (marble) + about RM120m in gold mining + expanding F&B ( <RM10m). ED said, gold mining may take 10 years to be in optimum production.

Still a bargain. High net cash. High buffer between ROE & PE (after net cash).

One of the principles Charlie Munger advice is the Theory of Cinderella. It's not that when it strikes midnight, the coach and horses will turn into pumpkin and mice. Its about, when you apply this theory in your investment, you do not have to worry about the "IN BETWEEN" of the story

Once upon a time........(noises or in coma - in between of the story)......... And they live happily ever after in the end.

The only human emotion that can make money in investment is "PATIENCE". Patience, pay.

If you do not embrace this theory, you will have to ......... RUN, before your investment turn into a pumpkin and mice.

Continue to be positive for growth (both Myanmar (new telco licence being issued) and additional towers in Vietnam.

Good opportunity to accumulate @ 32sen (as gap between price and value expanded). Never buy a share if you do not have 12-24 months of horizon (or longer). Never buy it if you're unable to explain a rationale reasoning to an investor and estimates of how much its value exceed its price.

This roller coaster is quite fun, as long as you can withstand it. Some said successful stock-picking means having the courage to take a stance that's different from the crowd. Bought some at 114 (average up)

@btw, i make mistakes too. Using wrong assumptions. Nobody asked detail questions, like, out of 2000 ha, how many ha is planted and plantable. (actually only 1000 ha is planted)

Is it planted on a flat land with good irrigation or on slops? What is the average FFB yield (mt) per ha? Does the plantation has any mill? The estimated selling price of FFB? Estimated extraction rate of FFB (will determine the price of FFB). Average age of trees.

Point to note, if you work back ward from the revenue (about RM2m plus), you will realise, the FFB yield is very low. This is a non-core biz, hence, many don't spend too much time on it, which is rightly so. Else, we derail our concentration on the CORE which need better analysis, because, any mistake (assuming) will deviate a lot for the valuation. Say, the biz is worth RM1.2b, some analysts overstate by RM37m, so, it's only 3% of the total estimates. No big deal.

@tksw, use analysts' reports as reference (with a pinch of salt). Some analysts overstate this, but understate something else much much more. If I tell you analyst understate FYE2018 & FYE2019 profits by 30-40%, so how? Everyone is responsible for their own investments and evaluation. Their "coverage" is not thorough enough. That's all.

Supernormal profits are not made by following the conventional wisdom (crowd). One must be able to visualised 18-24 months down the road, and see an entire different picture from the conventional wisdom, by Stan Druckenmiller.

The good and bad thing about investment is sometimes some can see something entirely different from the conventional wisdom (crowd), hence, make supernormal profits. (Am not referring to insider trading).

The interesting part about this company is the MD/CFO bought the shares (from market and ESOS), and many of his principal officers sold the shares instead.

Now, how come the management team bet against their own boss? How come the boss didn't manage to convince the management team that the money is in long term? Perhaps it is a "holding power issue"

Construction (RM13b) and toll concessionaires (Duke 1&2), both value exceeded the market cap by >50%, disregard the selldown. (they also have property development, shopping mall, Duke 3 & RM1b ROL).

This stock (BKawan) reminds me of Charlie Munger's Daily Journal investment in Well Fargo in 2009, quietly, and ....... the rest is history.

@momentumIvesting, best wishes to your target price.

1) As for the guarantee, please read extract below by Felicity, maximum exposure is RM149m.

2) Sales only RM132m? Duke 1 and 2 combine, the sales will DOUBLE in next few years.

3) Duke 1 & 2 still have 53 years to go, once listed, likely the value will exceed the 10% IRR.

4) Property market bad - how to buy? Anyway, item (1) and (2) already way, way above the market cap of RM2.2b, without considering the EkoCheras Mall, GDV 7b property, Duke 3 or SPE value, and River of Life (approval in principle)

5) @momentumivesting, do show your "technical basis" of arriving at TP 80 sen, so we can learn together. Else, my NONMOMENTUM INVESTING is saying TP2.20 (just kidding)

Investing can be fun, but it is not a game.

Extracted from felicity @ Nov 9, 2016

To cut things short, basically there is a guarantee of 10% IRR to EPF for the next 5 + 2 years. (EPF has protected itself well - so everyone thats working should be happy). If Ekovest does not achieve the intended target, it will have to pay EPF the difference through the monies that are allocated under the escrow account (RM149 million). The whole negotiation as I see it is to find another place for the highway asset - most probably IPO.

First time for warrant at RSI 30, highly oversold. Am not expert in TA, but fundamental of 2017 vs 2016. Market cap went up about RM100m (80 sen to 92 sen) for:

1) completed 600 units of tower in Myanmar
2) completed acquisition of about 2000 units of tower in Vietnam
3) solar profit this year will contribute additional PBT of RM4-5m

Item (1) and (2) = EBITDA of >RM55m (market gave EBITDA multiple of 10x, hence worth about RM550m, item (3) is easily worth RM50m. CAGR next 3 years expected >30% p.a.

RM600m (fundamentally improved and sustainable) vs RM100m (price action).
If still have reserve as planned, can accumulate at 33sen.

MD vs princpal offices, MD buy, officers sell.

@YOLOOOO, thanks for the comprehensive report from UOBKH dated Sep 2016.

@YOOLOO You are right about effectively Eko owns 60% of Duke 1&2. Actually no one knows what is the impact of Bandar Malaysia delay. No one knows how much Bandar Malaysia (interchange) contributes the traffic to DUKE 3. For me one out of seven, is not small either. Delay 5-8 years is no big deal. Even small project like Atria delayed 2 years, Empire City, delay 2-3 years. Don't forget, Duke 3 has no government guarantee.

(SILK took 10 year to achieve the traffic volume projected for the first year.)

One divided by 7 interchanges, is about 14% (assume each interchange contribute the traffic volume evenly). So, you just have to trust Ekovest when they say the impact is minimal, because they have the estimated figures. Big or small is different for different people. For some, 10% is big. None of us have the "estimates", so, no point speculating.

Is good that they have intention to list DUKE1 & 2, and it is too early to talk about DUKE3 listing.

So, I always advocate thorough research must be done. Investment can be fun, but it is not a game.

1. Sale of DUKE (1&2) to EPF - Is RM149m subject to traffic volume?
2. How many % EPF own DUKE 2 after the sale?
3. Duke 3 - Is it government guaranteed? If exceed traffic, how much to pay government?
4. Duke 3 - how many main interchanges, is one of the main interchanges go through Bandar Malaysia? What may be the impact if Bandar Malaysia delay?

Despite the weaknesses (some may not like to hear), the stock (for me) still under value on the pretext that Duke 3 must happen within certain timeframe and no major cost overrun, because DUKE 1 & 2 & 3 work as an integrated system.

Please do thorough research. DUKE 3 - there is one or two weakness in the concessionaire (hope it is not major).

For information only. LITRAK has adopted the amendment of MFRS 116 and 138, amortising HDE using volume of traffic instead of toll revenue. Hence, profit might be lower, but no impact on cash flow.

Yes, I believe EKO has potential, after reading your article (Tx)

@SJSOON, you have any estimate for SPRINT? Thanks.

Interesting company. Toll Roads + Construction + Shopping Mall + ROL > RM2.4b?

On the pretext of better than expected tenancy ratio for Myanmar, improved ratio for Vietnam, additional PBT about RM4-5m for Solar Segment as compared with last year, added some.

Based on Gadang existing projects up till today, am not surprise it can attain an average of RM140m p.a. PAT for next 3 years.

Even if the PE is not rerated, at today's PE of 8.8x, it should worth about RM1.232 billion vs today's market cap of RM879m.

@zai zai tx for the facts.

@danyuenyu82, if I am American Tower CEO, I will pay RM1.30 to - RM1.50 for OCK Group and get it privatised. After all, USD is strong now RM4.28 per USD against 3 years ago RM3.00. (USD has appreciated over 40%)

I doubt Century will buy another listed company unless it is highly undervalued.

Gadang tender for a few packages in LRT3.

added some @ 1.29, too low to ignore.