@gohkimhock, that was in Oct 2016 if not mistaken, before the MRT2 and some other properties projects secured.

With so many projects secured in FY2017 (properties and construction), CAGR 15% of PAT is not a problem for FY16-FY19. Last 2 months, after the announcement of MRT2, price is hovering around RM1.30 per share.

Upside of 30-50% in next one or two years is not surprising. More importantly, it is traded at the lower range PE compared with other small construction companies (which margin or ROE or in net cash position).

Added some pop-corn and "chips" to watch the show.

Share price is 18sen and shareholders' fund is 19 sen (RM560m). About half of shareholders' funds, 8 sen is liquid assets (RM260m). Company will continue to seek sustainable biz to invest. (Existing biz is F&B (Sugar Bun & Pezzo), gold mining and limestone mining).

Management is experience. Normally, a company will only do bonus issue when they felt there will be growth. So, with the bonus issue, 4 for 8, likely coming years they will be growth to the earnings.

@Skliew, Century is going into e-commerce with CJKE. What the MD said, without CJKE being a shareholder and expertise in this sector, Century on its own, will not go into e-commerce.

e-commerce in Malaysia is at its infancy. CAGR for next 3-5 years is 15-20%. However, need deep pocket to go into the biz. Century has the capacity to loan up to RM200m without any problem. Century market cap is about RM400m, GDex market cap is about RM4 billion. Both are going to participate into e-commerce.

Do you think Century will go into e-commerce? NO (without CJKE), according to the MD in the AGM. Why? Market is saturated & this biz need deep pocket. However, with CJKE brandname plus ties with Lazada & the support of e-commerce by government, MD said, Century stand a good chance.

Finally I saw a smart fella who bought 1.5m shares @ 1.27 per share. Congrats.

CAGR for e-commerce is 15-20% CAGR for next couple of years (CEO of DHL). A couple of big players is coming in, as the pie is growing about RM200-400m over next few years. Big and experience companies has higher rate of success (although many is moving into this sector).

Look at GDex, PE of 112x, up almost RM2 billion in market cap in less than 6 months, and their last earnings is only about RM38m. Century, is getting into GDex's sector, that is growing at RM200-400m p.a. Century has all the expertise from CJKorea Express to succeed in this biz. Today's price, RM1.14 per share, you are only paying for the existing biz at mid-teen PE. The new biz is FOC.

Batu Kawan is undervalued. It does has its own biz (please check carefully, its own plantation and manufacturing), but small compared to KLK.

KLK's market cap is about RM27b. B.Kawan 47% ownership is about RM12.7b.

BKawan's market cap is RM8.2b @ RM19.00 per share. B.Kawan's existing biz is worth about RM2b (please check). So, BKawan's ownership in KLK will be RM6.2b (8.2 - 2) while it should be reflected at RM12.7b, it is undervalued at RM6.5b (12.7 - 6.2)(far better than the execution risk for IPP under construction, biz in the future, as it is a traded shares).

BKawan DY is about 3.5%.

That is why, the Company buyback as much as RM30m at about RM19+. Plantation is not in the limelight at the moment. Give it some time, it will close the gap. Even if we used the EV/mature ha, it is about RM50-55,000 per ha, it is on the lower band of RM60k - 100k per mature ha for large plantation companies listed.

Hats off to the operators, for becoming "a billionaire" in less than 6 months.

It has been a while since I last saw a company with PE of 112x. Gadang's PE is only 8x, and the next 3 years earnings combined is about RM350m and GDex is only RM180m (based on CAGR of 30%, analyst gave CAGR of 21%). Congrats to all GDex holders.

Let's invite Jack Ma back again. A smile for the last mile (DHL's motto).

EBITDA Multiple is a valuation method in the tower biz, like PE. Formula = EV/EBITDA.

@cy1028, thanks for the write-up. Good effort.

Fong Shiling 1, Brahmal 0 (Fong Shiling bought warrants, Brahmal sold mother shares)

(Pay more attention to the "engine of growth" than the personality that buy the shares or warrants). OCK "engines" is still growing.

Don't underestimate the future e-commerce biz. CAGR next 4-5 years is about 15-20% p.a. Market size for e-Commerce 2016 is about RM1.1 billion (0.7% of total retail sale, Japan or Korea is about 20%)

Good biz (Yes), good people (Yes), good price(?) Yes, good price, even at today's level, with expansion of output 3-4 times from today.

Century with CJKE's just become a good company (new biz in e-commerce + expansion + going regional) + good people (together with CJKE's expertise) + good price (PE only one-fifth of GDex). At RM1.15, its not a gem, is a super gem. Time will tell.

Anything below RM1.43 is a good deal, once parcel delivery shows results, it may be too late to buy as prices may have gone up a lot, since CJKE is giving them customers on a silver platter. With 2-3 years horizon of investment, Century plan will be achieved. Fortunately, market has not recognise this potential, and value investors still have time to participate at a very good price of RM1.14.

UOB KayHian's projection, EBITDA 2015 - 2019, 46m, 67m, 90m, 113m, 134m (almost tripled in 4 years).

In The Star today, under Analyst Report, page 6 of Biz, UOB Kay Hian TP for OCK Group is RM1.05 per share after its earning upgrade.

UOB said that MPT is interested in at least 100 of OCK's tower sites and is aiming to sign long term lease agreements ranging between 10-12 years within the next few months.

OCK-W premium - 11%, Gadang W - 30%, EcoWD W - 70%, EWIT W - 50%, Some are single digit. Although the "estimated value" can be calculated, the warrant price is determined by the "market" or the operator.

Averaging up is a good idea if the "engine of growth" is crystallising every new day and the execution risk is substantially reduced every day.

It's value can only goes up from now, the question is, how much of the value is running faster than the price. If the rate of value grows faster than the price, it means, you are taking less risk with higher reward, hence, technically speaking, your entry price is "CHEAPER" based on risk and reward perspective.

One year ago, even thought the price is lower at say 23sen, the risk is much greater, as the "engine of growth" is yet to be built. The execution risk is higher.

(example, Mudajaya secured MRT1 contract few years ago, share price may have gone up, but, until today, the CEO actually said there are cost overrun, hence this project is a lost making contract. Similarly, when they entered the IPP project in India, the initial cost is about RM5 billion, but end up RM8 billion plus (although PPA improved), and delayed for commissioning for more than 3-4 years, incurring additional interest costs, and return may not be good at all. On hindsight, it is common a "discount" is given for any new biz because, there is always execution risk, it is a judgement issue).

On the tower ownership and leaseback biz, as zai zai explained earlier, Axiata sold part of their tower ownership/leasing biz for about RM380,000 per tower in Jan 2017.

OCK has about 2,900 towers revenue generating assets, this biz itself is value at roughly RM1.1 billion. A 20% discount for "smaller size" tower ownership/leasing biz will value it at about RM900 million. With existing biz of maintenance & solar, worth about RM400-500 million, total value of company is about RM1.3 billion or RM1.50 per share (no longer has execution risks).

With more expansion in the pipeline 200-400 new towers per annum (or more), value will improve. It may be a bargain for warrants at around 30sen as well as the mother share at 87.5 sen.

A tower ownership/lease biz is like a toll road concessionaire (20-30 years). The only difference is it takes shorter time to build (one year can build 1000-2000 towers, depending on conditions), and can immediately collect revenue once hand over to the telco operator, let say I can complete 100 in two months, I can hand over and start collecting lease rental income. Another upside is that, after the two months lapse after delivery, I can get new tenants, up to 3 tenants per tower, and improve my revenue almost immediately.

Hence, it is a "good biz model", (with one condition, with good tenancy growth, from 1.0x to 2.0x over time).

Hope that more will understand this biz model, and participate in this biz and gain together from its sustainable growth. Good luck.

Company will be compel to do a bonus issue of at least 1.8 for 1 share held under the new companies act.

HI R40s, you are right on the e-Commerce platform. Time is essence even though retail sale via e-Commerce is only 0.7% of total retail sales (as compared with SKorea, Japan - >20%). Huge opportunity for growth. It's even better they can work with other established e-Commerce platform, while establish their own soonest possible. E-commerce platform biz may be a good model as well.

Purchase via e-Commerce will grow especially its "price competitiveness" even we have included the transport fee (which equates to petrol, parking, time, and also higher price paid for rental in shopping complexes).

1. Info and fact are all available, so, judgement must be made (just like any new biz, the success rate). Yes, it is always easier said than done, hence, some discount should be given of delay, short of target, costing etc. That is why, I use half of the target achieved, it still looks good. Good thing the current price of RM1.11 per share has not taken into account the success of the execution of the parcel delivery biz.

2. Btw @R40s, based on the Annual Report, the multi level warehouse completion is in 2018, I suspect there is some changes to cater for the parcel delivery biz.

3. Upside for me outweigh downside, but need to be patient. New biz takes a little bit of time to build up. This one will be faster due to Taiko CJKE around.

4. So, good luck.

Go for good biz, good people and good price. Century is going into parcel delivery, a good biz model (look at GDex & POS). Good people, competent & expert in parcel delivery (proven in their home country, No.1 Korean parcel delivery company). Good price? GDex is RM3.2b. Century, is only RM430m on the existing biz of B2B.

If they can achieve half the size of GDex, revenue of RM110m by 2020, it's achievable. So, we add in RM1.6b, or maybe say 30% discount, RM1.1b. Fair value is about RM1.53b or RM5.25 per share.

More popcorn added. More warrants added. Is a combo.
Some say price is what you pay, value is what you get.

Last year, Jan 2016, I pay 70 sen - RM610m
Today, 14 April 2017, I pay 85 sen - RM740m

Additional price paid is about RM130m

But I was told, 2017, they have 600 towers (Myanmar) and 1938 towers (Vietnam)
These towers can generate about RM92m for 2017.
Market is paying 10x-12.5x (EBITDA multiple).
Assume EBITDA of 50%, so, 2017 additional EBITDA is RM46m x 10x = RM460m (12.5x = 570m).

PRICE = VALUE

ADDITIONAL PRICE PAID = ADDITIONAL VALUE GET

RM130m vs RM460m?

Not sure is rationale or not.

Added some popcorn & OCK WA at 30.5sen.

Overbought at the moment. Lets hope it correct a bit more, so more people can accumulate for its long term potential in B2C.

Century trying to achieve what GDex's revenue of RM240m by 2020. That will contribute about RM29m to RM36m. Let just said, Century can attain about RM30m x PE40x (still continue to grow) = RM1.2 billion. Just the B2C itself is already RM1.2b.

What about the B2B, assuming growth 20% in 3-2 years, PAT of B2B is about RM26m x PE18x = RM500m.

Fair value of B2B and B2C = RM1.7b divided by 391m shares, it is about RM4.35 per share or PE of 30x, still lower than POS and GDex PE of 45x and 86x respectively. Even GDex can double their profit by 2020, its PE is 43x.

1. The CJ "brandname" is under appreciated.
2. Its ambition to grow its revenue 5 fold by 2020 in ASEAN is also overlooked.
3. So, at 122, is it expensive? Looking into next couple of years, doubling Century's profits will deemed as an "underperformance" for CJ.

Public Bank's analyst did a very comprehensive write-up on Century. Buy the "brand".

Nanyang news:

http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1631524/新股东协同效应%EF%BC%8E世纪通运料多赚25

CAGR 25% for next 4 years.

CJ Logistics (CJKE) listed in Korea, with market capital of about RM15 billion. Century will be a mini-CJ Logistics for Asean countries, easily should worth RM1.5 billion in next few years (only 10% of CJKE).

@wealthwizard, great tabulation. Just a clarification, out of the RM6.7b, how much is for PDP?

GDex PE 83x. Century PE23x. POS 44x. Gadang 8x (all have double digits growth, the funny part is Gadang last FY profit is almost equal to GDex last 5 years total cumulated profits). Maybe, Gadang should be called Gadex? And invest into e-commerce? Or tie up with Alipay?

@Flinstones, The Edge Financial Daily a few days ago.

I believe the market is anticipating new contracts. Share price up a bit RM1.32. Anyway, is still 30-50% to go. Good biz, good people, good price - only one thing left, good to hold

maximum bonus issue from share premium is 9 for 5, still far away from UOB TP of RM1.30. And today is one of the lowest volume of the month.

if we are not rush to make profit, give it 12 months, upside of 30-50% is attainable, now with 3 years of order book (construction) and one or two more in the next 12 months. Based on today's measure, it could be too slow, some expect 30% in a day or a week.

pay for CJKE's expertise.

For info only. Premium just dropped to 9%. First time. Mother up 5 sen, warrant up 1 sen, warrant gearing 2.9x.

Upside of 30% over next 9 months should be achievable including 3-4% of dividend. Another RM700m contracts should be good for the company.

@Up_down, someone ask me to take a look, I am new to this, what is the CAGR for the Net Profit for next 3 years? Any new products in the pipeline? Any analyst report avail?

OCK warrants may have higher upside, but don't forget, OCK mother is entitle to bonus warrants besides bonus shares, something like Bornoil, for them to utilised the balance share premium which OCK is facing now.

OCK is kind of laggard. With completed and generating income of 2,800 towers since mid Jan 2017, contribution will come in, low initially (due to loan interest) but will pick up towards 2Q, 3Q and 4Q gradually when co-tenancy improves. You can either catch it now, or, later, but may need to pay higher price as you have the benefit of hindsight, instead of foresight.

Added a bit up to 80,000 units for Bonus and Free Bonus Warrant. With Hap Seng as management, old school businessman, should be good.

I read a story about the owner of the giant ship, which broke down and looking desperately to fix the engine problem. The owner was looking for expert one after another but none of them are able to find the problem after spending a few days on board. Then, they found a very old man, known to the industry, to fix the problem. The old man carrying a big bag of tools with him and went on board to inspect the problem. He went straight into the engine room and inspect the engine carefully from top to bottom. Looking on, the owner is so worry that the old man is unable to handle his new ship (i.e. not familiar with the new engine). The old man pull a small hammer out of his bag and gently tapped the engine. Instantly the engine lurched into life. He carefully put the hammer back into his tool bag. The engine is fixed.

A week later, the bill came to the owner from the old man, and it was for ten thousand dollars. What? Exclaimed the owner. He hardly do anything? So, the owner wrote a note to the old man. "Can you please give us an itemized bill". The old man send the bill and read:

1) Tapping the engine.....................2 dollars
2) Knowing where to tap ........9,998 dollars

Effort is important, knowing where to make an effort makes all the difference.

Have a good day.

With the MRT2 contract & good sale of service apartments in Capital City, PAT of RM110m and above is in the bag, at least for FY18. Rerating is in the pipeline. More so if they get another contract in the next 6 months.

Bonus issue - positive, Free Bonus Warrants - even more positive (disregard what the theory said).

With high gold inventory and sold about RM29m worth of own shares, major part of the company's net assets is liquid. Like any other business, need time to bear fruits. In the rubber plantation sector, we have to wait for 6-7 years. In palm oil, it takes about 3-4 years. You need to have stamina to hold the shares. Growth will come, but, do you have the stamina of a marathon runner. If you are a sprinter, don't hold this stocks, it will definitely disappoint. Because, the fruit is not ripe yet.

I like companies that resale their own shares with profits instead of cancelling their own shares. In real life, a dollar in hand is better than the improve EPS in the accounts as market environment is tough.

It would be suicide to issue bonus shares when you expect earnings to be flat and going down.

One more important point. Management mentioned that sale of service apartments (for Capital City) is very good. And, as usual, they are hopeful to get the hospital job.

CJKE's expansion plan into south east asia + CL's new multi-level warehouse (completing in May 2017), will likely bring the Company to a higher level.

Below 90sen & 30sen for warrants is a bargain for 12 months investment period. Value around 1.20 and above.

OCK has a paid up of RM87m and Share Premium of RM157m. There is high probability of proposed bonus issue of 3 for 2 (and balance in free bonus warrants) under the new companies Act. Besides, PAT CAGR is 31% for FY17 and FY18 as per UOB KayHian.