OCK will eventually like Gadang when they get wider coverage. Earning growth is good (>20% for next couple of years)

OCK W 100%

From a strategic view:

Islamic Debt RM150m (not sure how much utilised)
Private Placement RM75 m (June 2014)
Rights Issue RM145m (Dec 2015)

Total amount RM370m

Assumed PE of 10-11x, return will be RM30-37m p.a.

RHB forecast FY14, 15, 16 = 17m, 33m, 35m
Actual Result = 17m, 20m (est), ??

Catalyst: Indonesia acquisition, deal with Telenor, etc.

Not surprise if it can make a profit of 30-37m (from the capital above). Can consider. (Growth stock)

FY14 - 16.3m, FY 15 (TTM) - 20m vs RHB forecast in July for FY 15 - 33m. It appears that RHB forecast is too optimistic, i.e. that the profit comes in sooner than later. More importantly, OCK is a growth stock, the 33m profit will be achieved, perhaps in one or two years later. The important part is OCK can achieve it, and also sustain the earnings.

Looks OK, potential of earnings is visible (RI lately with W). Upside is good, with TP about RM1.00-1.20. This is a DELAY performance, not a major issue. Can seriously consider.

The real POINT here is, government made a MISTAKE of allocation of resources (as proven in the NATIONAL CAR PROJECT). So, in order to correct this COSTLY MISTAKE, it must be SCRAPPED (Just like a private company investing in a wrong biz, it must cut loss and invest in other biz).

NATIONAL CAR PROJECT is meant to subsidise the INCOMPETENT BIZ. SOMEONE will GAIN, and who pays for it, the rest of the citizen, period.

COMPARING ONE COUNTRY TO ANOTHER IS JUST AN ANALOGY. What will happen if we compares with SINGAPORE? The debate will have no end.

Red Sena & Warrant = 47 sen. NTA Cash should be around 50 sen? May be upside in warrant, whenever it announces on any purchase (hopefully within a year). It is just a concept play. At the moment, low risk with possible upside.

Good dividend stock. Touched 3 years high at 5.10 yesterday. Will come down since dividend is announced. It has move up quite a bit recently, like 50sen.

DIGI is spending RM900 million to upgrade its LTE 4G. I wonder what is their long term IRR on this capex. Get it?

Market cap is RMB265m (or RM162m). Cash is RMB1.450 billion. Shareholders' fund or NTA RMB1.900 billion. Despite its explanation to Bursa on why it need to raise a rights issue of up to RMB82m,

if you are the major shareholder, don't you want to buy back your own share? Say, today, I buy up 100%, RMB265 m, Stop all businesses, pay back all loans and debt, still have hard cash of RMB1.188 billion. Distribute it back to my self? Pay RM265m gain RM1,188 million, 4.48x capital gain.

I hope most China companies is different from Xinquan. Even if Xinquan represent 10% of listed companies of China, it will be Disaster.

Average volume past 4 weeks, 102,600. Today is 361,600. 3.5x higher than last 4 weeks. Consider higher than usual. Not sure is good sign or not?

Fraud in the company is committed. Losses had incurred. No one gets caught. No consideration of integrity of BOD? As if nothing had happen. Lets just said, another fraud happen, still disregarded as a factor although not measurable?

Short them. One analyst that correctly predict Shanghai index drop in August. He said, it will rebound to 4100 points and back to 2400 points by early 2016.

Most retail investors unaware that either the government pay or the user pay. As far as the company is concern, you either collect it on the spot, or later (from the government). No significant change in fundamental (other than collect cash earlier, which is good).

@daz, thanks for such a detail write-up. Must have taken some time and effort
for the research and the write up. Do you mind to share a few years back, what was the reason the company made about RM25 million losses?

Discount rate appears to be too low (Try using the weighted average of cost of debt and cost of equity)

HP spent about USD3 billion over the last 8 quarters for share buybacks, and now, they are talking about firing 30,000 engineers and technicians? Not a good idea.

Great philosophies. However, James Chanos shorted Tesla, because he felt that the company value is based on 2025 profits, while they cannot even determine the next quarter profit or loss. Time will tell if Tesla can overtake Apple, or just another dotcom bubble.

Good analysis. Keep it up. I believe the Cyberjaya project will keep them busy for a while. Property has a higher margin than construction, for the next couple of years. Utility is also a long term good cash cow project. Any biz that provide strong profit cash flow is a good project.

When a Malaysian decides to take a holiday in USA.

Air Asia is flying into a world contracting and deflating environment. In short, it is flying into unchartered water. It will be tough to get out unharmed. Exciting times is coming.

@Oil_n_Gas, please look at Mieco (1998 to 2004) and Ekowood (2004-2008) biz and Maybulk (2003 to 1015) Things don't go the linear way for all type of biz (some are cyclical). Look at Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, Glencore who do use to do lots of businesses with China. Look at shale oil in USA. Even the management do not know when is the end of the cycle, they expanded their business at the peak (all indicators look great). Only on hindsight, then you can see the whole cycle. So many of them made the same mistake, they were over confident. Loss billions. What will happen to this two biz, if China devalue 20%? I remember Mieco was a darling until 2004. All analysts give a saying it is great. Until its expansion hits the wall.

Stock market is like a roller coaster ride. The game involved ups and downs. More importantly you have fun and arrive back to your family safely.

Of course, there is a small chance that it will derail, even then, with the safety checked, the risk is mitigated. However, it will be a higher risk for those who do not wear the seat belt (i.e. with margin loan). I am doubtful DIGI will derail, but I cannot said that about FGV, AAX or MPCorp.

You may asked, are we enjoying the ups for too long and easy (thanks to QE) when the owner extended the slop up longer, without telling you the next down will also be steeper, faster, and longer. Could there be more demand for the ride because everyone is enjoying the party while the music still on. The moment, if there is a tragic incident, no one is willing to play it anymore, for a long while.

My view what is currently happening to the stock markets is like a tsunami in a pool, moving from left to right and back to the left and back to the ride. For those who are prepared, they will have fun, for those not, some will be a tragic end.

CPO price will be like crude oil price. Expected to go lower and stay low for one or two years. Try to skip plantations for a little while. This year average may be RM1900/tonne and next year could be RM1,500/tonne.

The NYSE started at about 1000 points and it is traded about 100 points drop at 12.46 am. It is very uncertain on what really hit them. Perhaps it may close down about 300-400 points, who knows. The trillion dollar questions, will this downward trend continue? It just entered the risk-off sentiment. 3 months down the road, investors wished they would have sold it at today 16,200 points, because, it may be down to 13,000 points, which is about 26% from peak. Everyone will be asking WHY?

Positive: Dialog profit improved from RM32m to RM275m from 2003 to 2015. The market cap also grower from RM500m to about RM7,000m. ROE ranges 13% to 26%. The PE today is about 27x.

Will it continue for the next 12 years, since they have done it over the last 12 years. Meaning, will it grow another 14 times to say RM98 billion over next 12 years?

Negative: Today PE 27x. I wonder what would the new norm in the next 5 years. Btw, not many company with RM98b of market cap. in KLCI. Tenaga market cap is about RM59b today. And guess what, Maybank is about RM82b. So, next 12 years, Dialog is going to be larger than TENAGA and MAYBANK?

Coastal profit grow from RM13m (2003) to RM207m (estimate 2015 TTM), market cap grow from RM140m to RM1,000m. ROE grows from 13% to 36%. PE today is about 5X. (few months back, PE is about 13X).

The billion dollar question, coastal vs dialog, similar profit trend over last 12 years, market cap
RM1b vs RM7b. What do you think?

Besides FA and TA, market also work on sentiment, liquidity, emotional, risk on/risk of mode, crowd mentality. It doesn't work on a linear form. But we can always use market cap/gdp as a reference. No one can tell, even profit is up will equates to price going up, depends on sentiment of the day. However, looking at a macro trend, deflation seems to be the trend.

This counter is not for the faint heart as retail is going into the stormy territory. Profits will suffer this year due to GST, weaker RM, weak economy and new competitors. Padini is sacrificing some of its margin to compete with its competitors in order to sustain its market share for a longer sustainable biz. With 13 new outlets, profit will only grow after this stormy period. Capex already being invested. Meanwhile, just take home the 7% plus Dividend Yield, and ignore the capital gain or loss for the stormy period before one can really see the light at the end of tunnel.

Some may ask, why take this risk, well, while waiting for the storm to be over, you have a great shelter (DY of 7% plus). Should the price fall further, then the DY may improve. This is a long term stock i.e. > 3 years.

June 28, 2012, FGV IPO's highest for the day is RM5.36. Today is about RM1.41. From a RM19 billion company dropped to RM5 billion dollar company. If CPO continue to be below RM2,000 per tonne for a few years, FGV will soon be a penny stock.

Similarly, KLK is about RM22.90 per share in June 2012, and today is RM20.42 per share, similarly dropped from RM24b to about RM21b. KLK has loss about RM3b.

FGV vs KLK, losses, RM15b vs RM3b.

This is another reasons we have to be careful about GLCs. Like a country resources, if no well manage by good leaders, it can slow you down by many years, if not decades.

This is a typical situation where market illiquidity is a double edge sword. It can cause significant (>20%) over valuation (which is a moving target) or under valuation as against the fundamental (also a moving target depends on the economic conditions).

The company involved cannot control either one of them (unless they are the major shareholder & the stock is illiquid and they control the price movements - which can be done) or fundamental has changed drastically due to the current currency issue effecting some of the companies and the investors (especially foreign ones).

So, it is impossible to compare iCap with anything or anyone (although it can be used as reference) because there is only one closed end fund in Bursa. Unless, one fine day, they decide to stop the biz, and distribute all the capital gain back to all the shareholders, that, can only be answered by the major shareholders. We can say whatever we like, what has happen, happened, no matter how much noise we make.

Not everything moves in linear pattern.

Sentiment and confidence can change quickly. Look at Malaysia, we have about RM2 trillion in deposits, and our currency dropped 20% against US dollar and Sterling. Effectively, our purchasing power dropped RM400 billion.

How much the stock market dropped, about 1000 points, which equal to about RM100 billion.

Not to mention our international reserve.

No thanks to our great PM.

Gradual accumulate. DY is now about 5.1% p.a. Internet will gradually take over TV. I notice teenagers stick to their Notebook/iPhone more often than TV. This is a fact. More entertainment stuff can get via internet. Usage of broadband growth is inevitable. (Hopefully Digi can benefit from it)

Coastal proves that share market price do not always goes up with improvement of profits or fundamental of company. Have a look at the EPS and NTA over last 5-10 years, and compared it with the share price. Not everything is absolute, in share market. Profit growth does not guarantee share price up.

On DIGI, EPF has been accumulating. DY about 4.3%. Will move up after foreign selling stops, which is on shareholders' level, no major change in the fundamental of the company. Accumulate for long term. Strong ROE, low debt level, high margin, strong management & decent biz.

Volume up (from average 70k to about 150k last 2 days), price up. Looks similar to Datasonic. This share has went up 4 folds. Congratulations to all who have sold and make 4 folds. Not sure if can make another fold? Good luck trading.

in early 2014, it is 50 sen, reached its peak at RM2.00 and came down to RM1.00 and climbed back recently to today's RM1.35. Average TP is RM1.50. This is a very sensitive stocks to government projects. (remember the petrol cards?).

I remembered last year, I mentioned on this stock before, very high PEs. After a year, the earnings did not catch up as expected (based on previous forecast). Today, the PE is more palatable, around PE 25x. But the projected PE by analysts not very attractive, the growth is not significant/aggressive as previously forecast in mid 2014.

Again, I believe this stock is Government sensitive stock.

In any major investment, especially listed company, we look for capital gain and dividend yield. Not sure the investment in this Indonesia company can provide BOTH. So, one have to research carefully what this investment can provide in long term, whether it requires further capex for expansion.

That means in order to reap a reasonable return for this long term investment, one have to know how much more capex this Indonesia company requires and of course, whether the FFB and extraction rate is average and above. (Not sure the said Indonesia company has all these qualities & also requires more capex). Give it a thought.

Great job. A very comprehensive write-up. Keep up the good work. The recent drop is due to foreign selling and short selling as well due to weakness in Ringgit.

Why i consider Digi, there is so many other stocks. Well, of course, the future is not the same at the past, buy it does ryhme. Digi provides a CARG of 28% p.a. over the last 10 years. I am not sure I can find another with such a spectacular return. Yes, that was on hindsight not foresight. One weak quarter, so be it. This is not for short term investor, not even one or two years, I am talking about 10 to 20 years. Meanwhile just grab the 4.4% dividend yield and wait for the capital gain many years down the road. The recent sell off is mainly foreigners who is worry about the currency issue, can't blame them.

management time is better use to focus on productivity and efficiency. Reduce the exposure in USD to avoid further damages.

Good analysis. Keep it up. I believe the recent drop are more related to the sentiment (fear) than any fundamental issues. Look at the entire market (as well as the region), most industries share prices dropped disregard the next few quarters earnings up or down. Even furniture export companies or technology sector that export most of their product (with RM depreciating).

Until the sentiment recovers, market will most likely be ICBC.

Most stocks are oversold disregard fundamental. Including TeoSeng. So, just take a pick, any stock, a rebound will provide you a FD rate of 4% in a few days. Of course, if it continue for the next two days, cut loss and wait.

My concern came true when I read The Edge Daily on AAX. AAX last couple of years losses mainly due to forex is RM400million. As mentioned in the daily, about USD450million debt (RM1.5billion) is unhedged.

Before the company turned into a forex company, the management should change its operating activities, so that the losses can be carried forward, meanwhile, a prudent management should at least hedge half of the NET EXPOSURE.

"sharpen your axe" as you go along. Don't waste time to figure out the best timing (unless you are trader). Many blue chip stocks and growth stocks have proven to do well disregard market direction. Once you understand the game, your risk is low, as time is at your side.

Just a deduction from reading GMT report. GMT claim the about receivable by Air Asia from its associates IAA and PAA is about RM4.2 billion and over the last 7 years the revenue of IAA and PAA combined is less than RM4 billion.

A quick look AirAsia past 7 years Net Profit Margin is about 10%. Let us assumed (i don't have the figure), the revenue of IAA & PAA combined turnover past 7 years is RM4.0 billion. IAA & PAA needs to have a total revenue of RM40 billion in order to make a profit of RM4 billion.

So, how many years you think IAA & PAA can make a revenue of RM40 billion? Do we think that IAA & PAA is a good investment model? What is the payback period of the RM4.2 billion invested in IAA & PAA? I really hope I am wrong.

Do you think it is a good investment model, having invested RM4 billion over the past 7 years, and the revenue achieved is less than RM4 billion? Lets do the maths.

dear AhSook AhKou, million thanks for your input. Bottom line, over next few years, are you saying the earnings will deteriorate based on your view because the run of liability from year 4 onwards. Do you think TunIns can overcome this issue like how he did it on AirAsia? Or are you pretty sure TuneIns future is not gonna make it. So, can I said, if you have money, you wouldn't touch this stocks (as against the research analysts who know nothing about this stock)

Buy and keep. Double digit return for long term (5 to 10 years). Great fundamental blue chip.

Those who do well for the next 10 years, they should manage funds like Unit Trusts & PNB, almost RM500 billion. PNB's fund managers however appear to do better (based on track record) than all the Unit Trust fund managers (could it be their fee are lower), or just the ASB's fund managers are lot better than Unit Trust fund managers.

I have seen hypermarkets "close down" or "taken over" or "business turn bad". unlike many years back, we now have many many hypermarkets every where. It was reported in Klang Valley, there are about 150 big shopping complex around.

Not sure the retails are doing well, but I definitely cannot go to the same one as frequent anymore. In Damansara Utama (PJ), you have One Utama, Tropicana City, Paradigm, Empire City (later), The Curve and Ikano, now New Atria. So, I cannot go to the same Nandos in One Utama anymore, sometime I go to SS2, Tropicana City, The Curve. Next will be New Atria. So, retail biz is going to get tough. Even Solaris Mont Kiara, I notice some of the better cafe/F&B shops changes now and then when Solaris Dutamas, might have taken the shine out of its brother.

Unless, employment income goes up steadily, one person can only eat at one restaurant at a time. There are many good one around (referring to PJ).

The insurance industry (at least 2 companies) (based on 10 years track records of LPI & Takaful) is recession proof. If, the market crash, (and the price of these stocks also dropped significantly e.g. >20%), please add more.
Don't time the market (for traders only),
spend more time to review listed companies that provides good capital appreciation and DY for long term. As far as I understand, insurance companies revise their premium regularly to reflect real inflation, not Malaysia CPI inflation.
These stocks are not for traders, for LT Investors, 5-10 years minimum and expecting double digits compounding return.
Not promoting, sharing ideas.

KYY should do a portfolio for public like what Tong Kooi Ong did on the Edge. When to buy, when to sell, even if it is not the real one. At least we know what happen to other stocks that is promoted like JTiasa, Mudajaya, Insas, and everything else.