Padini, according to its management is in transition (clear old stock), with a better balance sheet (compared with previous recession they went through), will be back. Return of Equity is low vs past few years, if take away the net cash balance, it is quite respectable.

The risk of investing in this stock is higher, because, if it cannot turn around, then the growth will snap, i.e. reach its maturity. If their expansion plan succeed (i.e. new store, new brand, better margin), over the next one or two year, together with DY, I believe, the CAR will be double digit.

Of course, there are other companies which are also undervalued with growth, not in transition, perhaps can do better.

If investor want to avoid this risk, they can wait to see better earnings before buying Padini, but the upside will be limited.

@talkxxxx, where can we view the portfolio. Thanks.

Transition Phase. Stronger Balance Sheet. Wider geographical coverage. Kitchen sinking. Went through recession before.

I take it as temporary. Buy more?

Fabulous. Set up a i3investor club, with top 5 as the fund managers. Each chooses 10 stocks, start a company, paid up say RM500,000 (each given 100k to invest). After 5 years, close account. Minimum return is 4% (FD rate), balance, shared 20% Fund Manager 80% Investors.

Wow, do they run private manage accounts? Must let them manage our money. Perhaps a NEW portfolio, this one already gain so much

madviruz, you are right. Let me update the article to 10 yr (5.6%) and 20 yr (6.01%).

Dear madviruz - i have updated the figures. I got it from www.advisertool.com and it is not verified. I personally calculated for 10 years is about 5.6%. Please double check.

The issue discussed in this article to share the ALTERNATIVES available from using the EPF money, not about whether to keep it there until 60 or not as advised by ks55.

Similarly with EPF proposed to increase withdrawal age from 55 to 60, if majority do not know how to spend their money, lets restrict everyone. Although this was cancelled, you never know, next round, some illogical proposal will come up again.

Why would the good investors who are doing very well with non-discretionary account being punished by below average return by majority of poor investors? After all, it is their money. Can you stop these people from going to the casinos? Closed down all casinos, and banned all with Malaysian passport to gamble, even outside Malaysia.

Besides mutual funds, there is private manage accounts (for higher employment income). Anyway, EPF's formula only permit very restricted withdrawal for investments. Just an alternative. Some did very well with alternative, turning RM40k into RM220k in 15 years. This may be the exceptions. I also have seen some turn RM300k into RM1 million in about 12 years.

The moral is, there are alternatives. But, some are stopped by EPF wef 1 May 2015. EPF always act on the prudent side, because majority did not do well under non-discretionary, and punished those who do well. So, welcome to the Bolehland

A brief review of analyst reports on top 10 property sectors, one can deduce an "unusual indicators" that no one ever heard of. From the review, we noted that the value most analysts ascribe to property future projects is about 8% x RNAV.

However, you can see from MIDF report on Protasco, it ascribes a 30% of RNAV for its property segment, almost 4 times the market norm.

Anyway, fundamental analysis aside, MIDF doesn't seems perturbed by the fraud or regular significant write off. Malaysia Boleh...... Similarly, one cannot help to wonder if SC is sleeping with the enemy............. Well, I suppose in Bolehland...... this is norm, just like 1MDB.

Those who made 20-50% CAR for say 3-5 years, it would be wise to rebalance to equity:bond (depends on age). As for really long term like 10, 15 or 20 years, it is unlikely the fund can achieve that. Like property, those who invest in small cap stocks one to two years ago, most make great return. But, chances of repeating that for the next 5 years is very very slim because when we see minimum long term of 10 years, if we can do say 12-15% CAR, it is consider very good.

But don't smile yet, in stocks or funds, it move up and down. Remember Brahims, it goes up from RM1 to RM2.70, today is less than one. Like HSBC, it started at 20, move to 29, drop to 25, today is 5.

If we do a CAR of EPF, it is only about 5% to 5.5%. Online UT provider is a good idea.

Is it rational to look beyond local stock market? Diversified into other currencies and other economies.

Yes, there are opportunities in local, but, don't forget, there are many VALUE growth stocks outside Malaysia as well. The issue is, how do we identify them? With internet and great website, it is very possible.

Have a broader view. Some financial planning tips in www.sosfinancialplanning.blogspot.com

Used to be a RM4 stock. Dropped 75% to RM1.00, now, up 20% to RM1.20. During the good time "oil & gas era", people said this stock is undervalue at RM4. Actually value is RELATIVE, with the oil price dropped >50%, this stock dropped more than that. The fluctuations, is actually due to sentiment, not much got to do with fundamental.

It is like, when many people chase the stocks, it over shoot the fundamentals, similarly, the same "people" fear, over shoot the downside as well. Can it climb back to RM2.00 in the next few years? ask the PEOPLE?

Action? Defensive (because higher uncertainty)
Buy? Yes,when see VALUE stocks
Keep more? Depends on net worth, and planning and age
Park REITs? If yield is good i.e. above 6%, why not?
How to time market? Ask feng shui master (just kidding)
Your buying strategy? Defensive and spread over years, always plan your investment based on your available net worth.

Frankly, I think RM1000 psf is high based on rental yield. Imagine, you own a unit now, RM1.2million for 1200 sf. In order to get a rental yield, i.e. 5%, you need a rental of RM5,000, less management fee, RM420, your net rental yield is RM4,580, your yield drop to say 4.58%. (not to mentioned quit rent and assessment)

Who would pay for a RM5,000 rent for long term? If he can pay such a rent, he can afford a loan of about RM800k. So, it would be hard to sustain for long run. Mont Kiara, Palma, rental is only RM2500 per month.

Of course, one may ask, how many sold at RM1000psf?It is a no-no for investor at this price. Please don't compared with Penang island condo rental yield, I know that 2% is common (gross yield).

Went up RM1.00 from RM1.70 (mid Jan 2015) to RM2.70 (early April) and now RM2.59. This is a good stock, but sometimes prices run faster than fundamental. Will review again when it goes back to around RM2.00.

DIGI is one good defensive stocks, why? competitive.

I remember speaking to an analyst on Felda, if the CPO price persistently below RM2000 per tonne for say a few years, Felda will be in red. And the way Felda spends lately, good luck, may be another MAS. First in history.

Growth expected
1. Book order of RM1.3bil
2. Higher margin into property development and new catalyst for Growth (Capital City 21)
3. Diversified business is growing (water, plantation, etc)
4. Buying new land in semenyih (future growth)

Good long term play, if they execute it well. Not difficult to see the profit double in the next couple of year.

Current financial is a bargain: PE 6.5, DY 2.7%, ROE 14% and CAGR next few years can achieve 25%. Accumulate.

Disregard the improvement in the fundamental, the price has gone up from RM1.50 to RM12.61 Time to take profits?

I liked this stocks until Nov 5, 2014. After the news of oil and gas fraud. And shockingly, neither SC nor Bursa take an interest in it. I have since replaced it with Vitrox, Padini, Wellcal, Prestariang, OCK and Gadang. Out of the 6, 3 are doing around 30% gain, the other 3 is down about 10-20%. They are OCK, Gadang and Padini. I will continue to buy gradually, as I am looking beyond one year, although these stocks are facing some hiccups in their earnings. So did Prestariang.

Protasco, catalyst is actually the Kajang land, De Centrum. Warren Buffett once said about management/expectations, honesty is very expensive gift. Do not expect it from cheap people.

Well, just another case like 1MDB. Nothing new. Fraud are encouraged as no one get caught. Businessman call it strong relationship with government bodies is good for business. I wonder what does that mean to common people?

Just a topic to attract attention. In a real world, norm is boring.

Choop818, don't need to be sorry, everyone is entitle to their opinion. Different people read the market differently. That is why we have buyers and sellers.

johnny cash, on contrary, I added more this year, but mainly on Vitrox, Wellcall, Gadang, Digi, Padini, AAX, Silk, OCK, Pestariang, and thinking to add more next year, gradually (of course, using only my EPF money)

It is not important if I am positive or negative. It is just how I read the US market and try to take advantage of it (if I can). For me, look for value stocks in Bursa. Even good value stocks get bashed recently, but, in a longer run, they will be back. Always have a plan, and extra bullets market drop drastically.

US hits new high of 18,000 before christmas and can even touch 19,000, but the risk is getting higher and higher, just like Bursa, the blue chips are toppish compared with its neighbours. The growth over the last few years mainly comes from some financial engineering stunts, cutting costs, lower interest, share buybacks (lack of new expansion program?)

Over the last few years since 2008, hedge funds has grown from USD1.4 trillion to USD2.7 trillion in 2013. During the peak in 2007, hedge funds was at USD1.8 trillion. Most QEs liquidity from USA, Europe, China, Japan went into commodities, government bonds, junk bonds and stocks. Sales growth was slow, although earnings growth was faster because of cut cost impact, and share buybacks.

Anyway, stocks follows optimism and pessimism. When it reaches the peak of optimism, it will turn, when it reaches the peak of pessimism, it will TURN. RISK ON RISK OFF. Now is RISK ON. So, be wise with your money.

To: belkg, say, it is assumed you have RM200 (depending on your reserve). You have invested RM100 into fundamentally strong shares (low PE, good growth, dividend higher than FD). There is nothing significant change about the fundamental of the biz, say it dropped 33% to RM67. You buy RM67. If it dropped to RM34 (i.e. drop another 50% from RM67) buy again.

Your total investment will be RM100, RM67 & RM33. Average is RM67. Say you bought at PE of 9X, DY is 5%. At a new average cost, your PE will be about 6X, your DY will be 7.5%.

So, it actually depends how much reserve you have. If you have RM150 and invested RM100, I would buy when it drop to RM50. Your average is now RM75. Based on new PE will be 6.75X and your DY will be 6.7%.

IF YOU HAVE 100% CASH & 100% INVESTED

You will be collecting 7.5% DY, and awaits PE to rebound when the market recover. Say it takes 3 years to go back to RM100, you will have 50% capital gain (RM67 to RM100) + 7.5% p.a. for next 3 years. Your compounding return each year is about 21% for 3 years. If takes 5 years to recover back to RM100, your compounding is about 16% p.a. for 5 years. If the company takes 8 years to recover to RM100, your compounding is about 13% p.a.

This is NOT A RECOMMENDATION, it is just a mathematical suggestion based on experience.

What will happen if oil drop from USD60 plus to USD40 plus? I believe it is high probable.

Sentosa properties dropped 40-50%. If high rise cannot get rental yield more than 3% p.a., paying off loan will be an issue. The days of flipping properties is "temporary" over.

The call off of the sale of kajang toll is a blessing in disguise. Now, SILK enjoy the "lock in" contracts at good price and also increase in volume for the toll as well. Double "win"

Many predicted oil USD200 in 2008. Similarly now many predicted oil ail be USD70 for next two years. Funnily, the so called "many" have no clue why they predicted wrongly in 2008, similarly I believe they are wrong as well this time.

Why can't it move down to USD50? or 40? or stabilised at USD50? It is determined by how much "speculators" fear and how much hv they moved out of the game. So, there is no such think the worst case must be USD70.

In short, its no longer determined by fundamental, it is the "confidence" at play, reasons are only made up for explaining the drop. I believe, next two years, oil price will continue to drop, from USD60 to USD50 per barrel.

Market cap at 55sen is about RM284m.
Maybank valued the toll using DCF is RM389m
OSVs biz long term value about RM300m.

Upside is about more than 100%. Is a turnaround stocks, have to wait for one or two years, when the positive results shown from growth in TOLL collection (Monopoly and defensive) and OSVs Biz, after purchasing 4 vessels the remaining 49% interest in the vessels and new buildings.

There are some positive looking forward:
1. crude oil prices is much lower now by 25%
2. demand will peak at last quarter due to holidays & Christmas travellings
3. no tax next few years due to unabsorbed tax losses bf
4. slow demand due to MAS incident is temporary
5. overcapacity esp Australia - can redirect to other routes (solvable)
6. delivery can be delayed (either by AAX or vendor)
7. still positive shareholders funds
8. can do sale and leaseback (temporarily, if there is cash flow problem)
9. can raise debt or equity

Of course, we also need to analyse the negatives, like how much over capacity and how soon it can be resolved? Unlike dry bulk ships, I doubt there are speculators on planes? Weak competitors will have to close down. I understand AAX has the highest market share.

Unless we are at dire straits like MAS, things in AAX can turn around, the questions is how long. Am sure there has done the feasibility based on high crude oil price (now, 25% lower) surely they have room to turn it around. After all, they are not run by GOVERNMENT.

Assuming what analyst said is correct:
1. Softer market demand after MAS incident (Temporary)
2. Significant capacity growth in SEA esp Australia (May be structural, can refocus and redirect to other routes)
3. AAX significant expansion capacity growth, fleet size increase 42% (may take time to fill up, or delay new fleet delivery)
4.Forex (Dollar appreciate against RM, cause RM48m loss, may continue to 4Q?)

Appears to be overcapacity? Anyway, AAX expansion is drastics and the leveraging is high. It need to slow down its expansion.

The only positive thing going forward is Crude Oil price has dropped about 25% in Q4.

With strong US dollar and low crude oil prices, I believe AAX can be turned around. Failing which, shareholders will be turned around.

Whenever a company expand, it takes a bit of time to break-even, especially for capital heavy investments and high gearing. Have to monitor the next few quarters to see any light at the end of the tunnel.

Bloomberg say AAX has 3 choices
1. Rights issue
2. Delay delivery of new aircrafts
3. Reduce number of new aircrafts purchase

14 Nov, bond holders approved the disposal of the toll road. The disposal is about RM400m for the company that held 100% of the toll concession, together with its debt attached. Hence, SILK's group debt will be reduced significantly, and interest expenses will be much lower after the disposal (interest was at 8% and was above RM500m debt, if I am not mistaken).

Hence, this company can be consider turned around, and refocus on AHTs (depending on sectors based on its size and charter contracts obtained, some are doing very well). The refocus on chartering biz is good, only small impact from the crude oil price drop because it is in the downstream segment and servicing existing capacity.

The qrtr results is not good, RM73m loss. The drop in crude oil prices will only be felt by AAX 6 months down the road. Good opportunity to grab some. Crude oil price will stay range bound for a while before it goes further down.

Based on supply exceed demand (slower global growth for last 6 yrs, USA growing at 2% only instead of 3.5% previously for last 5 years), higher USD dollar, tapering (less liquidity in the market), hedge funds moving out of commodities (some other commodities are also facing same problem, supply exceeds demand such as iron ore, copper, aluminium, palm oil, soya oil etc).

Wages in absolute terms grows less than 2% post 2008 (meaning, less money in the household income - and consumer demand has dropped). Loan to household also dropped. Hence, slower economy is expected for the next 4 years for USA.

Oct 15, when 10 yrs Treasuries dropped from 2.26% to lowest 1.86% before bounds back to 2.14% due to PANIC buying, or running to safety and some dealers actually SHUT DOWN their systems to avoid the CRASH. Fear and Greed is alive.

Whenever IOIPG move up, EPF is selling. I suppose they got a lot of IOIPG from IOICorp due to previous restructuring and it would show a profit in their portfolio.

If we compare IOIPG with SPSetia, UEMSunrise & IJM Land, the P/BV, IOIPG is only 0.80x, while the rest is 1.2x to 2.4x. (mid is 1.8x). So, from the perspective of P/BV, IOIPG looks attractive and has room to move higher. Even to move up to 1.2x, IOIPG has about 50% upside.

As for PE, it is the lowest currently. at the moment, its PE is about 8.7x, vs the rest is 10x to 36x.

More importantly, it is gearing is low, growth is good, DY is about 3%, Profit margin is better than the rest (due to land was bought long time ago). I believe, this stock (although in a boring sector, i.e. Properties) is worthwhile to buy and keep for 3-5 years and expect a return of at least 15% p.a.

It is a Syariah stock, and among other properties company, I believe, it is not difficult for analyst to justified a BUY call, and the latest TP is RM3.38 (as reference). Lately it moved up from around RM2.48 to RM2.78, taking a breather at the moment. Hope it got more legs.

Correction made on my comments on 4 Nov 2014. Invested about RM40m in new outlets & RM60m in Unit Trusts in 2014. 2013 investment in new outlets is only RM16m. (read the summary cash flow, hence no breakdown until I read the audited accounts)

With strong ROE (net of cash) at 38% with reasonable growth, and a DY 5.5%, upside should be good. Take a look at its earnings after a few years, and review regularly on its investment in unit trusts.

This stock is flat for almost 2.5 years. With a DY of about 5%. Strong ROE, Good margin compared with competitors, reasonable growth, strong net cash flow of RM150m. Invested 100m in new outlets in 2014, compared with 2010-2013, total invested is about 85m. Expected to grow faster.

IOIPG drop from the first day it requoted on early Jan, from RM3.50 to RM2.50 in about a month plus, and then move side way until early Sept up from RM2.40 to RM2.76 on 19 Sep 2014, where the world market corrected, and now rebound back to RM2.76 testing its Sep high. If it can convincingly past through this resistance, I think it can go to the next level of RM2.90 easily, provided EPF do not continue to sell, like what the did in Jan.

IOIPG, is the strongest property stocks in the KLSE. Good DY, strong growth, great margin and strong cash flow, it deserve to be at PE of 20-25x with its growth expectation.

With 26% lower crude oil price, I believe the savings is substantial. AAX should worth easily RM1.00 per share.

Crude oil had dropped from 119 to 84 (Brent Oil). One analyst mentioned each drop of USD1 per barrel will improve AAX earnings by about RMXXm. So, crude oil had dropped USD35 x XXm? AAX earnings will improved more than RM200 million? So, what is the real impact? Should AAX be a great bargain?

Today, IOIPG is 2.75. So, it is not no longer "no chance" that it can touch 3.10 or even 3.30 by end of the year. If it does, not bad buying the cc at 1sen. Say it become 5 sen, you made 400%. But the price got to go to 3.20. It it reach 3.30, cc will be 15 sen. With investment cost say at 1 sen against 15 sen, wow, good deal. Say, you buy 100,000 your cost is RM1000. If you sell it at 15 sen, you get RM15,000.

It only need to go up 13% from today's price to touch 3.10. Hmmmmm, I think is POSSIBLE.

We have seen so many of these especially in the smaller caps stocks. It seems to be a culture of the "more powerful" cheats the "less powerful" or the small investors. Sigh…..

Agree, chances are low. But not no chance. We cannot predict how fast share prices goes up or down, just like football, who could imagine, a team can score 3 goals in the last 4 minutes injury time after 90 minutes. It should be, chances are low.

Great LANDBANKS. Boring stocks, looking for marathon investors, not sprinters. Potential, but pretty boring and slow. Wish it can run up higher as quick as it came down. Normally we see stocks takes 2 years to double and 2 months to come down, this could be the opposite.

SILK falls under a TURNAROUND company. Either it turnaround, or the investor will be turned around.

Crude oil price dropped drastically over last 1-2 months (26%). It should be positive for AAX. If what Gary Shilling said was right, we are gradually entering deflation, a lot of commodities is in a glut.

Iron ore went up from USD11 (1999) to the peak of USD180. Guess what price is it today, USD90. Goldman Sachs estimated 300 million tons excess by 2017.

If we look at CRB Index, it had dropped about 12%.

It reminded me of the build up to China Olympic in 2008. Charter rates of dry bulk (index) move up from Baltic Dry Index went up from about 1000 to 11000 before the Olympics in Beijing, and guess what is it today, about 900. This is one of the few Index that is not traded. And there was a GLUT of dry bulk ships from 2008 till today. Just look at the charter rate, fell back to its origin.

The commodities GLUT will gradual deflation. Of course, smaller economies like us will also be effected, but, if we are more Domestically driven economy, the impact will be slightly less.

Good Write Up kcchongnz. There are tonnes of Lemons in Malaysia to avoid. Stick with the High ROE, High Growth, High Margin, Good Management, Sustainable Biz, Reasonable PE. As long as we get 7 out of 10, I believe, it is not bad.

Suggest Swap and come back if result is promising. Sell Protasco, say RM1.50 today.Buy MAS at 25 sen. Get 27sen for the MGO, return net is about 7.5%. If Protasco move up to RM1.61, then BREAKEVEN, no extra gain or loss. If Protasco only move say up to RM1.55 (in 2 months time), which means, you only gain about 3% instead of MAS 7.5%. That is a feasible idea, No Guarantee what will happen during next 2 months.

Of course, Protasco MAY be announcing dividend, but no guarantee that price may not drop ex-div.