Likely need to made RM140mil sales to able to cover the non-cash items expenses as well as fix costs eg: depreciation

Good or bad? Likely operations will be affected as long as Covid-19 still around?

@BenTan000, yes agreed with you. Nevertheless, we knew that the lower asp backlog order is cleared, ASP for regular order of NBR likely priced above USD75/1000 pieces from next quarter onward. Same as Supermax, I believe blended ASP will hit above USD85 as well for Oct-Dec quarter.

I like your analysis, very informative. Anyhow, FY21Q1 total sales volume is 17.97b pieces and 43% is NBR. With 56% Revenue derived from NBR, the ASP for NBR (included regular and spot) is at c. USD85. I think this aligned with the ASP guidance and explained the differences occurs in your analysis.

I think JP Morgan is selling bah kut teh from SG.

Good analysis, looking at the population density per convenience store, it seem like we Malaysia has a lot growth's space.

ASP simply maintain at $25-$30 per 1000 pieces with 15% NP margin by post pandemic, no problem for RM150m PAT per year. Market Cap justified at RM2B with much lower PE between 13-15.

Revenue cap at 40-50m?

+77%, Kossan probably able to make RM700m for Q4

I believe Careplus will only do better with higher capacity growth in following quarter.

Depend on your holding power and belief on company's forward earnings.

something blowing? volume plus breakout

Average VWAP for the past 3 weeks at RM6.89, with c. 900m shares traded for Top Glove. Last Friday closing price of RM6.90 and short position 101m shares? You short you die! lol

Check this out:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-10/the-future-of-u-s-national-stockpile-isn-t-a-bigger-stockpile

Top Glove had switch most of it's Surgical lines to NBR, order lead time increased from 100 days to 260 days.

Based on Ansell's presentation, new exam and surgical lines from CMSB will commence production by this quarter, Careplus is in a good position to capture surgical glove market share.

They has no choice but to buy back higher later if there is no supply of chips.

Big guy sell high buy low, don't let go your bets.

Price controlled at below RM6.00.

But Kangtai vaccine has yet to complete Phase II Trial oh

31/12/19
Share Price RM4.65
NOSH 1,278,936
Market Cap = 4.65 * 1,278,936 = RM5,947 Million

08/12/20
Share Price RM6.00
NOSH 2,557,872
Market Cap = 6.00 * 2,557,872 = RM15,347 Million

Market Cap increased = (15,347/5,947) - 1 * 100% = 158%
T4Q Net profit increased = 171%

# Market Cap laggard of 13%


Estimated PATAMI of RM780m for quarter ending December as management guidance higher than expected ASP increment at 75% QoQ.

By next quarter, the T4Q net profit increase would be +489%. Has market recognize this profit growth compare to current 158% increased?

https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh/cfdocs/cfRL/rl.cfm?lid=711091&lpcd=LZA

Rubber glove sector is expected to undergo a structural step up in demand post pandemic. Organic q-o-q growth seen for Malaysia's rubber glove exports even before pandemic.
Q1'2019 RM4173m
Q2'2019 RM4222m
Q3'2019 RM4409m
Q4'2019 RM4759m
Q1'2020 RM4884m
Q2'2020 RM6897m
Q3'2020 RM9958m
Q4'2020 ?

Rubber glove sector is expected to undergo a structural step up in demand post pandemic. Organic q-o-q growth seen for Malaysia's rubber glove exports even before pandemic.
Q1'2019 RM4173m
Q2'2019 RM4222m
Q3'2019 RM4409m
Q4'2019 RM4759m
Q1'2020 RM4884m
Q2'2020 RM6897m
Q3'2020 RM9958m
Q4'2020 ?

Haha... nice interpret what happened in Bursa.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/supermax-added-fbm-klci

Writer drafting...

FTSE Russell announces the following semi-annual changes to the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI. The changes will be applied after the close of business on Friday, 18 December 2020 and will be effective on Monday, 21 December 2020.

Inclusions: 7106 Supermax
Exclusions: 5235SS KLCC PROP & REITS - Stapled Sec

US dollar weakening favor distributor or importer as cost of good sold is cheaper?

Contact lens big 5 in making :)

Aware Careplus has a shipment to JOHNSON CONTROLS, INC. during November. Good to see some direct purchase transaction.

- Expansion plan: increase 8.25billion pieces, make capacity up to 37 billion pieces p.a.

Initial plan: 26.2b by year end 2020
Latest capacity: 37b - 8.25b = 28.75b
Additional capacity: 28.75b - 26.2b = 2.55b per annum

Additional net profit for spot order of the additional capacity:
Revenue = 2.55b / 4 * 140 * 4.1 = 365,925
60% NP Margin = 365,925 * 0.6 = RM220m #

MSCI benchmarked funds averaging down from last buy RM11.07#

By end of year 2020, annual installed capacity will increased to c. 5.6b pieces per annum and doubled the 2019 capacity by Q2'21. The real earning multiplier (Volume x Price) will start this quarter onward.

Telstar Lifesciences-General Lab Equipment-Ultra Low Temperature freezers (-86°C & -45°C)

https://www.dksh.com/global-en/products/ins/telstar-ultra-low-temperature-freezers

CIMB P/E 20.78, Supermax P/E 17.96

You choose.

Gov't inks deal with Pfizer to vaccinate 6.4 million Malaysians

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2020/11/644852/govt-inks-deal-pfizer-vaccinate-64-million-malaysians

While the world is holding its breath awaiting the release of the first COVID-19 vaccine, DKSH is already looking at how we can ensure that a vaccine can reach people in all corners of Asia. As one of Asia’s biggest vaccine distributors, it’s our mission to help Asian patients.

https://www.dksh.com/global-en/insights/opportunities-and-challenges-to-bringing-a-covid-19-vaccine-to-asian-citizens

Three more market days to be include into MSCI Emerging Market Small Cap Index. Expecting Indices benchmarked foreign fund, known as passive funds will emerged very soon.

Collect before inclusion in MSCI Small Cap Indexes by 1st December.

Careplus and Comfort additions to MSCI Small Cap Indexes in MSCI Equity Indexes November 2020 Semi-Annual Index Review

*Given* :
1) Capacity = 211mil
2) Price = USD6/100(rm0.246 perglove)
3) Shares = 3,066 mil

wow, 21Bil Capacity?

Q3 Jul-Sep'20 export value at RM9.96Bil

The Company’s nitrile gloves is currently supplied by Original Equipment Manufacturers, and brand building of the “Novid” brand will be taking place before the Company’s gloves production starts in middle of 2021.

Capacity per Q (1000 pieces)
Q3 Apr-Jun 120,000
Q4 Jul-Sep 180,000
Q1 Oct-Dec 240,000
Q2 Jan-Mac 540,000
Q3 Apr-Jun 540,000
Q4 Jul-Sep 540,000
Q1 Oct-Dec 540,000

Any accounting or audit expert here mind to explain why the operating expenses for Q1 is so much lower than previous quarter, a 25% difference? It even lower than it's estimated cost of goods sold.

So far for the quarter ending Sep'20, Supermax has the highest earnings to capacity (1000 pieces).
Supermax RM132
Hartalega RM 55
Careplus RM 37

Support 1, SBB last buy price: RM8.75
Support 2, 30th Sept closed price : RM8.42

Don't be so cruel want to grab below these prices lah!

Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD

Nov 1, 2020 12:01 PM | Report Abuse

Double digit share price rally in 2 months time!

FY20Q3 ending March reported NP of RM71mil, Share price at RM1.69 and T4Q P/E 16.30 (historical 2-years mean PE 16.85) on 31/03/2020.

FY20Q4 ending June reported NP of RM400mil, Share price at RM8.00 and T4Q P/E 20.71 (historical 2-years mean PE 22.48) on 30/06/2020.

FY21Q1 ending September reported NP of RM790mil, Share price at RM8.42 and T4Q P/E 17.75 (historical 2-years mean PE 19.28) on 30/09/2020.

FY21Q2 ending December projected NP of RM_ _ _ _mil, Share price at RM_ _._ _ and T4Q P/E
_ _. _ _(historical 2-years mean PE 19.16) on 31/12/2020.


=====================================

Forecast 1: Maintain NP at RM800mil and 20% discount to historical trailing P/E.
FY21Q2 ending December projected NP of RM800mil, Share price at RM11.60 and T4Q P/E 15.33 (historical 2-years mean PE 19.16) on 31/12/2020.

Forecast 2: Projected NP at RM1150mil and 20% discount to historical trailing P/E.
FY21Q2 ending December projected NP of RM800mil, Share price at RM13.58 and T4Q P/E 15.33 (historical 2-years mean PE 19.16) on 31/12/2020.

See if the forecast TP can achieve by 31/12/2020?

This round got earnings support already!

RM4Bil NP per year, market cap=RM4Bil * PE10 (lower than bank P/E FY21) = RM40Bil :)

Should resume the idss, if not those big fund guy simply pull down the price and not rush to cover their short... ermm

Lol, why cut... Supermax is doing well in ESG.Graded A in MSCI ESG Ratings.

https://www.msci.com/esg-ratings/issuer/supermax-corporation-berhad/IID000000002185348