Haha patience lar aiyo..

You can upload to a file sharing website and share the download link here.

https://wetransfer.com/

or even google drive and set sharing privacy to everyone with link can download

80.5c you called trapped ah.. wa.. I really nothing to say

Ya Gillian, chill bro. Being emotional like this will only make people disrespect your opinion more.

Short selling definitely legal... In Malaysia and around the world. It was suspended for a time except for permitted short selling by market makers. I don't see it as manipulation, but it can be used for such purposes if a fund is big enough.

Ahgoo, not a lousy quarter lah.. but not great. Have to find out why margin dropped even when topline remain about same. Everyone knows they are about full capacity since last quarter d so I didn't expect much growth but the profit decreasing kinda surprised me. 50% increased capacity coming online in December so should be reflected in next qr... We see how. At this juncture I think dnonce is fairly valued but doesn't take into consideration of their growth coming. There's an investor briefing today, let's see what management has to say.

Short selling means they sell shares they don't own, and must close the short position i.e. buy back before a stipulated time.

Wa Gillian, you sound so fake leh... don't like that. One day die hard fan another day suddenly flip.

Above copy pasted from the report, adjusted format a bit to make it easier to read.

Maintain BUY with higher TP of MYR1.03 from MYR0.77, 30% upside
and c.4% FY22F (Apr) yield. NTPM is transitioning to an earnings upcycle,
underpinned by the lower raw material prices, narrowing Vietnam losses,
and progressive contribution from the newly-added capacity. In addition,
moderation in capex moving forward will free up more cash for the company
to deleverage and dish out higher dividends. Valuation is undemanding with
the stock trading at an unwarranted 45% discount from Bursa Malaysia
Consumer Product Index (KLCSU) FY21F P/E of 24x.

 Poised for an earnings upcycle. We foresee a forthcoming earnings
upcycle for NTPM after the earnings downtrend in FY18-20 that were
dragged down by the Vietnam losses and a sharp surge in pulp prices.
Essentially, margin expansion is sustainable as pulp requirement is stocked
until mid-2021 at a low price level. Besides, it will also be supported by the
favourable product mix and surge in demand for wet wipes in personal care
segment. On top of that, the business rationalisation plan whereby export
business is reallocated to Vietnam plant, has lifted the production scale and
hence narrowed the losses. The resultant spare capacity in Malaysia plants
has been repurposed to produce recycled grade products. Meanwhile, the
prospect of filling up newly expanded capacity (+45% in 2019) is gaining
positive traction with more orders expected to be secured.

 On a cleaner slate. The heavy capex cycle is over for NTPM after a total
of MYR250m of capex invested in FY18-20, management expects to incur
maintenance capex of MYR15-20m pa in FY21 and FY22. This will free up
more cash for the company to degear and declare a higher dividend. We
forecast net gearing to moderate to 0.65x in FY22 from 0.81x as of 1QFY21,
whereas our DPS forecasts in FY21-FY23 imply c.3-4% yield.

 Expecting further earnings recovery. NTPM is scheduled to release its
2QFY21 results on 18 Dec. We expect the strong earnings recovery
momentum seen in 1QFY21 to sustain. Its 2QFY21 net profit is estimated
to be MYR12m-14m (vs 1QFY21: MYR14.6m). This will imply a sharp YoY
turnaround from the 2QFY20 headline losses of MYR1.4m. We made no
changes to FY21 forecast but raised FY22-23 earnings forecasts by 12-
13% to pencil in management’s guidance on margins.

 Our DCF-derived TP rises to MYR1.03 correspondingly after the earnings
revision and a tweak in risk assumptions to better reflect the positive
prospect. TP implies 17x P/E FY22F, at +1.5 SD over the stock’s 5-year
mean, justified by a forecasted 3-year earnings CAGR of 98%.

Restructured to be shariah-compliant again
NTPM was deleted from the latest shariah-compliant securities list after breaching the
stipulated debt/asset ratio. We understand that the debts have been restructured to meet
the requirement. That said, the company will have to wait for the review in Nov 2021 to
return to the list as the review will be based on the figures in its annual report which is
normally released in August.

FX exposure is hedged
USD movement against MYR will not impact NTPM’s earnings significantly as export sales
(40% of total sales) are naturally hedged by the purchase of imported raw material.


 Risks to our recommendation include sharp rise in input costs and laterthan-expected turnaround in Vietnam operation

Yes, confirmed friday 18/12 as reported by RHB analyst. Btw, they gave NTPM a TP of RM 1.03

khatulistiwa bro, you need to take a break and drink some tea. relax a bit.

Alan, unfortunately no index monitors the sub segment. Can only check the industrial materials. Anyway if you put all steel or metal related counters in one watchlist you can roughly get the gist on how the sector is doing.

That being said, I still am a firm believer of Dnonce and look forward to their QR which should be coming out anytime soon.

Hi Luke and Gillian, I think you may be mistaken because cleanroom facilities are normally for EMS players, not really related to healthcare players. In the case of vaccine or medical use, what they need is a sterile room, not clean room.

A sterile room may not be a clean room. A clean room may not be a sterile room. Do take note ya. Dnonce makes EMS parts for certain medical related devices amongst other things. They are not involved in logistics for vaccines, nor do they have the capability for that as well, as to what you seem to be implying.

Haha... my intention is to spread knowledge in this forum. i3 is filled with malicious people and nonsense most of the time.

Alan, it is under industrial products-> metals subsector

How do you consider it high debt?

Receivables outweigh payables. (RM 240 mil vs RM 180mil)
Current cash balance can repay all short term borrowings. (145mil vs 149mil) This implies that current cash on hands can repay all borrowings for the next 4 quarters.
Long term debt amounts to about RM 600mil roughly.
In this quarter alone, profit from operations is around RM 100mil. Assuming there is no growth at all, the company can repay all debts in 6 quarters.

But do expect further growth in profits as Don Sahong experiences increased power availability factor now during the raining season, not to mention their booming plastics segment and growing solar segment.

Note that short term debt= 1 year and long term debt may be upwards of 9+ years.

At the rate they are increasing their free cash flow, they are in a comfortable position to repay all debts in a timely manner while being able to distribute dividends or expand further if they so desire.

Should be end of this month

Unfortunately Ivan, your knowledge is a bit shallow if you really just take EPS of 1.3 sen * 4. By the way, with your assumption of PE 18, it should be around 93 sen. So I'm not sure how you calculated.

We shall see by end of this month, how much more the profits can grow, and perhaps you might reconsider your calculations.

Wah bro.. most steel counters just gained around 20-30% in slightly over a week, need to rest a while leh

Khatulistiwa my dude, you sound kinda desperate there.. I think you better stop

Energiser, are you sure it's iron ore or manganese ore? Very different price trend for both.

Normally early in the month they would release it. I wonder if they're trying to match topglove QR date. I'm not sure. but definitely within this month.

Welcome aboard! lets go to RM 1+ after Christmas :D

Peggy, retraced a bit already. Got on ka?

Rainbow, any method works really. TA= average near supports, or when MACD enters oversold, or etc.
Dollar cost averaging also can.

Or pyramid averaging also can (drop xx%, add)

It would rebound eventually. Just see whether you can hold it, and if you dare, to average lower at the right prices.

For a company with profits continually growing and prospects still good, share price on the long term is only up up up. Of course, short term anything can happen.

Yup, 50% capacity expansion come online this month, to match with TG and STA expansion as well.

You can hope but unlikely to get. Drop simply because of rebalancing of portfolio by the passive index funds.

gemfinder the hero, sell at peak and buy back low. idol, wish I could do that too.

Should be just around Christmas

Hock, based on last qr, the next qr should be released next week/early december

BigPortfolio, what are you talking about? I was talking to Rainbow, in his/her example, I was asked what to do *IF* the stock has already dropped 50%. I never once said Tguan dropped 50%.

Tguan is still quite near their high.

See the question below>>

Rainbow0721 terence & cheekaan, may i ask your advice, if someone bought a good share at one price, maybe RM2.. but the share starts to turn downtrend.. and drop by 50%.. do you advise to exit first and enter again when it shows uptrend again.. or just hold and wait for the company value to realise..

For fundamental shares, do you analyse the TA as well? like whether it is showing any bearish pattern such double top triple top .. lower high.. etc.. or we actually do not need to care, just buy and forget..

Rainbow, if you planned to cut, you should cut much earlier (maybe after 10-15%). after dropping 50%, you should be thinking to double down, not cutting *IF* the company has good fundamental. After already dropping 50%, how much more can it drop? If you sell at 50% losses, definitely going to regret it.

For long term, no I don't bother with TA so much. Would use it to find a good price to add more, maybe.

Hanzo, almost impossible to lose 100% capital, unless you're in no fundamental/speculative stocks. Being prepared to lose, not necessarily will lose. More often than not, people who are prepared to lose tend to win more.

The most important thing is of course your health and wellbeing. money is secondary. if being in the market is negatively affecting your health, emotions, mental states, and so on, I think it's better to leave. The price of seeing a psychologist or going to the hospital due to stress is not worth it.

If you cannot tahan seeing paper losses.. my suggestions are
1) don't look at your portfolio every single day.
2) delete the app or program
3) don't invest. it's not easy, and definitely not for everyone. get out with small losses and put your money elsewhere. maybe prs or unit trust, or epf.

Rainbow, everyone got different style. For company I invest in, then I see their profits and growth. but you have to make sure you really understand the company, the potential, the threats, challenges, addressable market, etc.

For shares that I just want to trade short term based on a certain theme, then I just hit and run don't care about anything else.

Different portfolio, different style. Real money is made long term, definitely. For value investing, no such thing as cut loss.

You ask your friend la... hold long term on good companies, just sit and wait, earn more, or keep hit and run and staring at the screen, some days lose money some days win.. which one earns more...


give you some companies for case study: tguan, mfcb, johotin, inari, scientx, kpower... you compare just buy and wait for 1-2 years vs you keep in and out and in and out and stress everyday... you see lah..

you can take pre covid price vs current price, because if you bought during march crash all of these companies more than 100-200% returns already if you just hold until now.

Results out, pretty good. Definitely can support a higher valuation.

Share price is the least of my concern lah... company profits and growth are what I care about in investing. btw, I added more at 2.66 just now, too cheap to pass.

It's not good, but not too bad.

Qr is out. Not too bad. Profit margin increased, revenue dropped.

Night_shadow, maybe he was, maybe he wasn't. Who knows? This is a public forum. Anyone can tell you anything. Even I can claim that I'm from a prestigious fund, and that other funds are looking to enter Tguan soon. I do have insider friends after all. They told me, just need to wait for window dressing in december. Tguan will break 3.50 easily.

Am I telling the truth? Am I also dreaming? Who's to judge?

Can always read, but never believe everything you read. Personally, I would never trust any firm figures here. Opinions, maybe. Numbers? no way.

Up and down is normal. Every counter also got people want to buy, also got people want to sell. Long term is up, then ok la. As company keeps growing, share price will follow eventually.

Night_shadow, if you want to trade, I would say tguan is not the right counter for you. Many other higher volatilty counters for better trading.. i.e. pos, kpower, glove counters etc.

I disagree with your statement, because you are thinking that you can time the market. Buying at 2.7 is better than 2.8 or 2.9. Of course. But who will know if it would drop to 2.7? What if you buy now at 2.7 but it drops to 2.6 next week? Or what if you didn't buy at 2.8, then it rebounds to 3?

Don't try to time the market, no point.

Foker, not CIMB disposing. please read in detail. Keep diluting shareholders ownership? Bro it's bursa listing requirement to go to the main market. your comments really show your lack of understanding.

terence775 A beneficiary of rising copper and nickel prices. Don't miss out
21/10/2020 9:14 AM

Take profit all, it's been a good ride 0.16-0.22. Congratulations to those who entered early~

Jay, good to see you here too. PE10 for a company with strong and sustainable earnings visibility and growth? count me in man..

I added more at 7.35, I knew for sure after QR will have some selldown so I waited a bit haha.

Happy to hold through it all over the months. Let's meet again a year later and see how much this company has grown.

Then you should be very happy lah aiyo. 100%+ gains not happy ka....