SinGor, agreed with you that big player was accumulating the share for quite some time. Before 14/7/2015, the big player was throwing down small unit almost every minutes to force weak players to liquidate. Price was closing down half to one cent daily. Then on 15/7/2015, the big player changed the tactic of playing, accumulating with buying up.

Price of jet fuel has dropped to USD 63/ barrel on 20/7/2015 or USD 10 lower than 2Q15.

I did quite detail study of the counter and tabulation of company accounting. I am buying into the counter(only stock hold) as the price has no much room to go down and lot of room to go up. Worth to take the risk as next quarter result coming out next month.

The hedging jet fuel price for 2Q15 is USD 84 per barrel at 50% of consumption and the average spot jet fuel price for 2Q15 is USD 74/ barrel. Therefore, the average fuel price is USD 79.00 as compared to 1Q15 was USD 84. The cost saving as compared to 2Q14 is about Rm 120 million and compared to 1Q15 is about Rm 18 million. The spot jet fuel price for last few day had further dropped to USD 66.

If 2Q15 average passenger fare is same as 1Q15 at Rm 500 and ancillary revenue per passenger of Rm 140, the revenue for 2Q15 will go up to Rm 850 million if load factor can achieve at 80%.
Profit after tax for the quarter will be about Rm 40 million if all cost maintained as 1Q15.

Fuel expenses against revenue ratio had dropped from 53% last year to 35% in first quarter, 2015 and will further drop to 33% in coming quarter. Average USD against Ringgit was further dropped to 3.70 for the 2nd quarter,2015 as compared to AAX provision of 3.62 in 1Q15. Therefore, currency lost will be expected to be Rm 25 million in coming quarter. If load factor can achieve at 80% and all cost maintain at level of 1Q15, expected 2Q15 result will be turn around to positive.

Bought another 400k @0.30 today. Down limited.

Feel no good to expose my holding. I will pick up Right issue as I am confident that the company will turn around soon.

kensen, you must be very busy looking for information. My philosophy of buying share is very simple. I will start buying when I think the company financial will turn around soon.

I bought some AAX share last week in expected turn around and better result in coming few quarter financial result. 1) Every USD 10.00 drop per barrel in jet fuel is equivalent to saving of Rm140 million. Ryanair lately hedging at USD 68.00 per barrel for year 2017, there will be great cost saving down the line. AAX also hedging 50% of fuel at USD 98 this year and loses had been provided last quarter was Rm 107 millions.(lost has been taken care)
2) the provision of currency lost for last quarter was Rm 157 million. My opinion, the worst for our currency is over now and will slowly recover back. The result may not shown as good this quarter, however, it will turn around soon.

Kensen, why you are so sure that TF can't turn around AAX and become one of the profitable.

I don't agreed with Tan KW that Airasia X will not succeed because from history there is not single airline company ever made it. I have the same ideal with Airasia during 10 years ago, but the fact, Airasia is proven successful.

1Q15 result to be released soon. I expect the result shall be good based on the following: 1) Oil price dropped about 20% from 4Q14. When prepared for 4Q14, the Account had taken care of hedging lost of Rm 107 million when oil price was near to the bottom, which mean that any drop in oil at 1Q15 is still saving to the company or equivalent to about Rm72 M. 2) For AAX passengers, the main flying zones were China and Australia, majority of the passengers were Chinese, the revenue for the 1Q normally will be higher( Chinese New Year). 3) 4Q14 result, the operating profit of Rm90 M, in fact was the highest amongst the quarterly result released. However, the huge losses were due to provision of hedging and currency losses. 4) Right issue. The management will not let the result look bad to raise the new fund. Our currency against USD was dropping from 3.4 in 4Q14 to 3.65 in 1Q15( Average value), may have to provide more for currency loss. However, the date to calculate the provision loss is subjective eg. If 30/4/2015, the exchange rate was 3.56 only which the provision can be significantly lower.

Datuk, i personally support you for your humanitarian help to the people. At the same time, its also promote the good image of Airasia to the world. Good work.

Vanachai Thailand, price starts to move up in expected quarterly result will release next week. Will be good result too.

Quarterly result shall be out soon. Will be good result.

anonymousinvestor: Particleboard price also in uptrend with strong demand. Hevea should be benefited same as Evergreen and Mieco.

http://www.wbpionline.com/features/global-prospects-for-mdf-and-particleboard-4376280/
17/01/2015 19:58

Ringgit against USD is heading 3.70. The uptrend may be as previous April,2009 to Dec,2009.

Evergreen will be active next few days as day traders were seem present. Still bullish.

If fake push, volume will drop significant and price will drop back. This time, look like genuine buyers coming in. Volume don't drop and price stable. Weak players take profit and when market condition turn good, another push is expected. Good luck.

For the past week, 3rd liner counters were neither down or maintain. But Evergreen was reversed trend up. Volume increased come with price up. Why at this bad time? There must be good news behind yet to be known by public. I forecast the counter will continue uptrend until good news release most likely at before CNY.

Malaysia Ringgit was dropping against Thai Bath by 7% for the last 3 months( oct to dec,2014). This mean that Evergreen Malaysia was more competitive now as compared to Vanachai Ltd( Thailand). Ringgit versus Chinese Yuan also dropping by 7% and more demand of particle/MDF boards from China, Evergreen is more competitive and efficiency now as compared 3 months ago.

Evergreen versus Vanachai( Thailand), Rm 318M : Rm 1258M in Market capital.
Both are biggest Board manufacturer in their country.
Turnover is about Rm 1 billion.
Same type of business: Particle and MDF boards.
Evergreen just turnaround from lowest 0.45 to 0.62
Vanachai's had move up 300% from low.

Most of furniture companies are doing good last few quarters and their raw materials of furnitures mostly are Particle or MDF boards. It is time for Evergreen to move up now.

Coming quarter result must be good, buyers start to buy up.

Average Ringgit against USD for 3rd quarter was 3.18 and Oct was 3.27, Nov was 3.34 and Dec will be higher. Average for 4th quarter > 3.31 or >4% better than 3rd quarter. Earning in Ringgit will improve further next quarter.

We wish to share our informations of Evergreen in this forum with those interested in the company. Those whom are not interest, we just ignored them and they will drop off.

reverse psychology philosophy, otherwise why advise people to cut loss now not earlier. Their intention?

Good to Evergreen if those whom are no confident in the company are out.

Evergreen, mieco and lii hen; all have good 3Q result, i don't think Hevea will be bad. They are in same type of business. Wait and see.

Evergreen gross profit margin is 24% against Vanachai of 23.5%. It is more competitive now as compared to last few quarters. Particle board production line was under major maintenance, otherwise result might be even better. Next quarter, Ringgit is dropping quite significantly and expected the profit margin will improve further. With 3rd quarter earning of 2 cents, annualized PE of 7, the price has room to go up in the near future.

Alphabeta. Thank you very much for your valuable informations.

Withholding tax of 10% hold by company. Can IRB refund back the money if we declared our income tax less than 10%? Please advise. Thank you.

Dividend at 1.9175 cent. Ex date 3/12/2014. Payment date 24/12/2014.

MDF board sale volume increased by 20% and sale price increased by 9%: particle board sale volume increased by 64% and sale price increased by 3% as compared to last year for Vanachai. Production of Evergreen is 85%MDF board and 15% is particle board. Price increased of 9% in MDF is more advantage to Evergreen.

http://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?file=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.set.or.th%2Fdat%2Fnews%2F201411%2F14072404.pdf

http://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?file=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.set.or.th%2Fdat%2Fnews%2F201411%2F14072404.pdf

http://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?file=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.set.or.th%2Fdat%2Fnews%2F201411%2F14072410.pdf

http://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?file=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.set.or.th%2Fdat%2Fnews%2F201411%2F14072410.pdf

http://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?file=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.set.or.th%2Fdat%2Fnews%2F201411%2F14072410.pdf

http://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?file=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.set.or.th%2Fdat%2Fnews%2F201411%2F14072404.pdf

Vanachai Thailand 3rd Quarter Result released today and the result was 300% better than last quarter; from TB 126 million to TB 365 million. Hevea is same field with Vanachai and most likely will has good 3rd quarterly result too.

Vanachai Ltd Thailand, price went up quite significant last week in expecting next quarter result out next week. All particle/mdf board counters; mieco, evergreen and hevea recoverred from last month drop and all counters are in uptrend. With Ringgit dropping against USD,next quarter must have good result.

Further more, Ringgit against USD has dropped from 3.15 early Sept,2014 to 3.328 now, which mean 5.65% drop in 2 month time. This translate into extra profit from the sale if trade done in USD.

Vanachai Ltd Thailand, price went up quite significant last week in expecting next quarter result out next week. All particle/mdf board counters; mieco, evergreen and hevea recoverred from last month drop and all counters are in uptrend. I don't see any reason they have bad Q3 result.

The announcement of QE program by Japanese government had caused YEN dropped 2.8% on friday and we may see our Ringgit to drop below 3.3 on Monday.

A Mdf board trader close to Evergreen mentioned that the production cost is more competitive now as compared to few quarters ago. With the dropped of raw materials price, we wish to see turn around in coming quarter. Good luck.

Pick up another 200k last two days, in view of Vanachai big volume and big jump in price. Expected Evergreen to move up higher.

Vanachai Ltd, Thailand, price went up to record high today. Must has good quarterly report. The result may be out by mid of next month. The result for Hevea must be equivalent good. Good luck

Vanachai, Thailand, another record high today. Hope to spread over to Evergreen this time.