from cai leng Klsescreener

#HARTALEGA股东大会

主要业务：
✅ 世界上最大的丁腈(nitrile)手套生产商
✅产能高达 每年440 亿 只手套
✅ 客户主要来自欧美西方国家

整个股东大会长达一个小时半，大部分的时间都是管理层（关氏父子）在为股东们做投资者汇报（investor presentation） 和 问答环节（QnA）

股东特大摘录：
1) 短期阻力
管理层认为短期需求会疲软，
主要是因为在今年上半年许多客户（包括经销商）都在高价买进了足够的库存，
正在等待库存消耗。

受到手套价格下跌的影响，
来自发达国家的市场的客户都表现得非常谨慎。

手套的供应增加，
尤其是来自马、泰、中三国的大咖增加产能，
导致对销售价起到一定的压力。

管理层预计在来临的几个月，
销售价会”sharp drop” （对比4-6 月的巅峰价位），
逐步下滑的原料价格抵消一部分失去的盈利率（profit margin）

2）长期展望
需求的结构性改变，
手套市场的在疫情后的需求对比疫情前，
使用量会更高，
尤其是来自发展中的国家，
比如新兴市场，
主要是因为卫生意识的提升。

3）FY2022 的计划
项目名称： NGC 1.5 （Plant 8-11）
投资额： RM 17 亿
厂房：4 座
正在兴建中，
FY2022 第一季度便可开始投入第一条生产线的生产运作，
整个项目可以提升公司总产能高达 190 亿只手套。

4）未来更多项目
项目名称： NGC 2.0
投资额： RM 32 亿
厂房： 7 座

项目名称： NSM KEDAH
投资额 ： RM 70 亿
厂房： 16 座

5）营运效率的升级计划
截至目前为止，
公司的2 个厂房（7 个中的2 个），
已经是完全数码化，
迎合工业4.0，
生产速度可达到每条线每小时45k 只手套。
在来临的财政年会有更多自动化和数码化，
工厂自动化的目标是降低人力成本的20%

已经正在试用自动化手套包装系统。

6）防疫
超过90% 的员工已经接种疫苗（两剂量）

7）减少碳足迹（carbon footprint）
公司安装了许多的系统来达到降低碳排放，
其中包括太阳能板、生物质能发电系统、热能排放在使用系统等等

QnA

A）如何应对销售价（ASP）降低带来的盈利侵蚀

答： 公司会努力通过营运效率的提升与改善，尤其是通过自动化生产方案。

B）外籍劳工比例，如何减少依赖外劳

答：高达60% 都是外籍劳工，通过录取本地员工，还有自动化生产来降低对外劳的依赖

C）市场上有许多新的手套公司，会否抢走公司客户

答：客户大多数是经销商，与公司有多年的合作经验 ， 客户不会贸然跳船，不预计有太大影响。

D）销售价ASP 还会降多少？ 产能使用率

答：QoQ 来临的季度预计ASP 会下跌 30， Q2 （这个季度）产能使用率70%， 因为在7 月与8 月只有60% 劳动力

E）公司的创新产品AMG 进度， 以及最新的COATS /MDG 系列手套对公司贡献如何

答： AMG依然还没有受到FDA 的认证， COATS 和 MDG 则会贡献不超过 10% 的生意额（未来的3-5 年里）

F）来自中国新产能的威胁

答：无可否认长期来说，来自中国的新增产能会影响整个行业的盈利率， 公司会通过提升营运效率来对冲这个风险，达到持续获利的能力，公司目前是世界上nitrile手套里生产成本最低的，也会致力维护这地位。

G）OEM/ OBM 策略

答: 目前是专注于 OEM ， 在中国印度和澳洲则有自己的OBM市场， 在未来也会专注发展自己的品牌

H）如何应用手头上的庞大现金

答：没有收购计划的打算，会把现金投资在产能扩张以及改善生产效率的努力上

总结:
虽然整个AGM 有收到许多投资者的问题，但是基本上中心都围绕在 ASP 能不能维持、 如何应对ASP下跌后的情况、来自中国的竞争等等（都在上面的叙述里可找到答案）

作为应对方案，HARTA 主要还是通过不断革新管理团队（机构化管理层，包括引进跨国公司的有经验专业管理人士）、 不断创新推出与众不同的产品， 还有自动化生产线降低生产成本，提升生产效率。

HARTA 是一家由眼光长远的管理层掌控的公司，他们表示疫情过后，还是会致力于提升EPS （每股净利）， 公司在KEDAH 的项目， 也会是下一个重要的成长里程碑。

目标：2027 年产量达到950 亿只， KEDAH 厂房建成后 1430 亿只

管理层的一些关键用词：
～销售价格疫情后会比疫情前高，只是是因为生产成本的提升
～2021 年尾盈利率会正常化
～美国不太可能参与手套生产（价钱下跌了，而且在美国生产成本高）

#9月7日

It's entirely different ball game. If you like dividends then go for gloves, plantation (Inno, TAAn, Swkplnt), consumer (HupSeng, Pwroot, cocolnd)....

This is not a dividend play company. What happen to the share prices of glove companies paying high dividend?

PER valuation of packaging companies.

General Can segment (PER)
- Canone < 5x
- Ableglob 11x
-DPIH 30x

Stretch film segment (PER)
- BPplas 10.7x
- Tguan 12.7x

Flexible & Other plastic packaging (OER)
- Daibochi 14x
- SCGM - 13.7x
- Scientx - 16.4x
- SLP - 16.4x

Carton segment (PER)
- Master 7.3x
- Muda 7.3x
- Orna 7.5x
- PPHB 6.9x

Canone will return to the valuation level in par or slightly below with its peers. It won't run too far away within a segment ie carton, stretch film, flexible packaging.

No kidding. " 电子商务免税区究竟帮助了多少我国企业拓展国外市场我不知道，但我清楚地被告知，大陆的入口商品能在封柜的情况下从西港拖到免税区内，只要售价低于1200令吉，就能免缴10%的销售税卖给大马的消费者，享受连身为国民的我们都无法获得的待遇"

我国正规的家电品牌都需根据国家规定向大马工业标准研究院（SIRIM）申请注册，批准后才能在市场售卖，但中国小家电却能长驱直入、如入无人之境，不用任何批准手续，甚至不用缴交任何税务就能倾销我国市场，当权者却视若无睹、根本不理企业的死活！

People buy more soy sauce to eat with rice at home as economy no good.

Gemfinder knows well. Give an opportunity for people to sell at cheap prices when the company was performing below par against its peers. MI are not so gullible. CanOne will lift up its peers together while share price are moving up. It is likely CanOne breaking PER 10x in the next few months. .

中国娱乐圈彻底消失，习近平思想成唯一休闲?

https://youtu.be/mxD13IwbMJI

文化革命 2.0 重回70年代了?

https://www.sinchew.com.my/?p=3262120

北大教授:政府干预越多 中国恐变“共同贫穷”

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/876607

RM 4 is merely an appetizer. It would break 5 soon supported by recovery of earnings, PER below 5x, high NTA, low share volume & involving in consumer packaging business.

An informative article.

There are only 2 companies producing Aluminium Cans and Easy-Open-End namely Kian Joo and Crown Beverage Can in Malaysia. The top 2 players of metal-can goes to Kian Joo and Ablegroup. The business is relatively stable due to high barrier of entry in capital and volume wise. Kian Joo has expanded the aluminium can manufacturing facilities in Myanmar.

King of Malaysia can packaging has awaken. Go!

Yeoh can't stand with the market cap CanOne 755m. DPIH is so small and yet market cap half its size.

Yeoh's strategy is to capture market share through price war and follow by price hike. Therefore, general can segment did not doing well in the past few years.

Nasdaq is too far away. Now, look at the valuation of semiconductor companies in Singapore.

AEM - PER 16x Profit margin 18% ( ATE segment )
Frencken - PER 18x Profit margin 10% ( Mechatronics & IMS )
Grand Venture - PER 33x Profit margin 20% ( Precsion/assembly & testing )
Micro Mechanic - PER 25x Profit margin 32% ( Die/wire-bonding & Encapsulation )
UMS - PER 20x Profit margin 33% ( RF MMIC products & foundry services )

Bursa
Kobay - PER 63x Profit margin 18% ( Precision tooling )
SAM - PER 30x Profit margin 14% ( Precision engineering )
Wong - PER 30x Profit margin 13% ( Precision engineering )
YBS - PER 44x Profit margin 5% ( Precision engineering )

Market offers value Ablegroup at PER 10.5x. CanOne generates EPS 80 cents so fair value will be RM 8 or PER 10x.

What I intend to say is don't simply blast our Malaysia core industry like palm oil is cyclical and no future. Not to keep shouting Technology (Bursa semiconductor) is the future...a joke.

I was so excited while doing research of semiconductor companies in Bursa but after making a comparison with the Nasdaq companies. Alamak....it is really like showering with ice water .

If you are a real believer of technology (semiconductor) is the future, Invest in the DJ Semiconductor components companies at cheaper valuation.

This rally could be similar with the one in 2015.

US Semiconductor index is only relevant to Bursa semiconductor whereas Nasdaq index fate dictated by companies ..Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon & Facebook. Market cap semiconductor companies are far more smaller than these 5 giants.

Shaking out short term traders is the priority.

pinky. EPF is dumping again...

Updated Bursa Malaysia's OSAT & ATE & EMS players valuation in PER.

OSAT (PER)
Gtronic - 26x
Inari -35x
MPI - 33x
Unisem - 32x

ATE (PER)
Aemulus - 76x
MI - 46x
Penta - 52x
QES - 42x
VIS - 32x
Vitrox - 61x

EMS (PER)
Ataims - 20x
EG - 30x
PIE - 18x
SKpres - 18.5x
VS - 21x

HDD (PER)
Dufu - 35x

LED (PER)
D&O - 77x
JHM - 45x

Hybrid
Greatec - 62x
Kobay -66x
SAM - 31x
UWC - 66x

Global OSAT & ATE & EMS players valuation.

OSAT (PER)
ASE 15.6x
Amkor 14.5x

ATE (PER)
Teradyne 24x
Advantest 24x
Chroma 19x

EMS (PER)
Foxconn 18x
Wistron 8x
Jabil 16x

HDD (PER)
Seagate - 15.5x
Western Digital 24x

EPF no more dumping? ....I thought could get a cheaper prices.

In general, carton packaging business ( Muda, Orna, PPHB & Master) is traded at PER 7x. Can packaging barriers of entry is much higher. Therefore, fair value of can packaging business will be at least PER 10x. Consumer plastic packaging (BPlastic & Tguan ) shouted at PER > 11x. As for another 2 consumer plastic packaging (SCGM & SLP) are much higher priced ... PER 15x.

EPF is the one blocking the price from moving up. Let their funds manager to dispose all and no more disturbing TAAn.

First TP 4.0, 2nd TP 5.0 and 3rd TP 6.0. Consumer theme is back when Fed will start tapering in next few months.

This is the only consumer related company traded at PER below 5x.

3A's gross profit margin is improving by 2% over the past 2 quarters.

30 Jun 21 - 19.6%
31 Mar 21 - 19.5%
31 Dec 20 - 17.0%
30 Sep 20 - 17.5%
30 Jun 20 - 17.4%

After stripping one off gain from the disposal of the F&B, Canone made EPS 60 cents for the last 3 quarters from the operations. At the price of 3.46, the market offers an undemanding PER 5.8x in comparison with its peers. Expect EPS 80 cents for a full year.

Ablegroup PER 10.8x
DPIH PER 30x

They dumped the cheap tickets for other people to make money later.

FMCG recovery theme.

FMCG recovery theme.

Volume building while price is moving up.

Nice one! Up up up!

Nice QR. EPF dumping spoiled the mood today.

Follow the trend. Foreign Funds pumped Rm 965m into Bursa last week.

Technology is the future but pricing at extraobital level in Bursa. Hot money is migrating to recovery sector.

Bumper supply of CPO inIndonesia is ending as more than 4 million hectare or 28% of palm trees has entered old ages. CPO supply would be stagnant in the next few years over the issues of Covid and ESG tightening.

Indonesia total planted areas:

2019 - 14.6 million
2018 - 14.3 million
2017 - 12.4 million
2016 - 11.2 million

2000 - 4.1 million

Margin eroded as selling price increase is unable to catch up with the raw materials price rally of flour, sugar & Non diary creamer over last 6 months.

Pwroot has to increase selling price to pass additional costs of palm oil (Non diary creamer) to maintain the margin.

Gross Margin up in the last 2 quarters. Obviously, 3A has raised their ASP.

Sarawak plantation sold CPO at the price 10% higher than the preceeding quarter. Expect TAAn CPO ASP up 10% as well. TAAn's FFB output 13% higher than the preceding quarter too. Timber prices hike and may contribute 10m profit.

Yeoh has shifted to bottom-lines oriented since the ASP hike half a year ago. CanOne can actually dump the aerosol market to grill DPIH but they don't do it anymore.

Compare with other consumer business in PER.

GCB (cocoa) -19x
Mflour (flour) - 15x
MSM (sugar) - 35x

Top up some early morning. A consumer business P/E 10.5x so undemanding .