FMCG recovery theme.

Volume building while price is moving up.

Nice one! Up up up!

Nice QR. EPF dumping spoiled the mood today.

Follow the trend. Foreign Funds pumped Rm 965m into Bursa last week.

Technology is the future but pricing at extraobital level in Bursa. Hot money is migrating to recovery sector.

Bumper supply of CPO inIndonesia is ending as more than 4 million hectare or 28% of palm trees has entered old ages. CPO supply would be stagnant in the next few years over the issues of Covid and ESG tightening.

Indonesia total planted areas:

2019 - 14.6 million
2018 - 14.3 million
2017 - 12.4 million
2016 - 11.2 million

2000 - 4.1 million

Margin eroded as selling price increase is unable to catch up with the raw materials price rally of flour, sugar & Non diary creamer over last 6 months.

Pwroot has to increase selling price to pass additional costs of palm oil (Non diary creamer) to maintain the margin.

Gross Margin up in the last 2 quarters. Obviously, 3A has raised their ASP.

Sarawak plantation sold CPO at the price 10% higher than the preceeding quarter. Expect TAAn CPO ASP up 10% as well. TAAn's FFB output 13% higher than the preceding quarter too. Timber prices hike and may contribute 10m profit.

Yeoh has shifted to bottom-lines oriented since the ASP hike half a year ago. CanOne can actually dump the aerosol market to grill DPIH but they don't do it anymore.

Compare with other consumer business in PER.

GCB (cocoa) -19x
Mflour (flour) - 15x
MSM (sugar) - 35x

Top up some early morning. A consumer business P/E 10.5x so undemanding .

ConOne can packaging business is seriously undervalue.

CanOne - Market cap 650m PAT > 100 million
Ableglob - Market cap 481m PAT 45 million
DPIH - Market cap 318m PAT 12 million

TAAn market cap is merely RM 34k per hectare, one of the lowest among the few profitable good plantation business. Much lower than TSH > RM 50k per hectare.

Estimate PAT RM 60m to 80m.

No understanding or doing any research about palm oil stocks. Save your comments please.

What else sector is attractive to Foreign Funds now? Technology are plenty in Nasdaq? Haha

Recovery theme now.

Migrate to CanOne as Able has diversified into property development.

GST is firing Myeg...joined Pang72 vessel.

Trying luck in consumer sector as commodity prices peaking.

Everybody knows Pwroot would report not good QR next 6 months. Commodity prices peak. Buy now?

7 Technology companies are closed to break MA 200...Penta, MMSV, KESM, MI, UWC, Ataims & Jhm.

Bursa Technology index surged 80% in a year whilst Nasdaq up merely 32%.

Bursa Technology index is more powerful than Nasdaq?

Nasdaq graph doesn't lie?

CPO price trend trails soybean oil since it's the closest substitution. Any substantial price gap between CPO and soy oil will be filled up through shifting in demand. ESG does not has much impact to the CPO prices.

Therfore, tracking soy oil price is as good as CPO price in mid and long term.

A serious semiconductor investor would talk about moats of the prominent players in the industry rather than living in the world of Bursa ie ASML, TSMC, Lam Research, ADI, Nvidia, Broadcom...

OSAT & EMS players are merely subcon in layman terms.

TSMC output will be hitting max 3rd Qtr 2021. No room for adding new capacity over the next 2 years.

Revenue 'million

30 Jun 21 - TWD 13,289
31 Mar 21 - TWD 12,919
31 Dec 20 - TWD 12.676
30 Sep 20 - TWD 12,138
30 Jun 20 - TWD 10,385

TSMC is the price setter of semiconductor chips and the market offers merely PER 30x. The company will keep growing in next 2 years as they can simply increase prices of the products. TSMC, Samsung and Intel had their plans for the new chips factory. Unfortunately, the new capacity will only be ready after 30 months.

In the absent of new chips capacity, how on earth our Bursa OSAT, ATE and EMS to grow the business in year 2022 and 2023?

Global chip shortage may last until 2023, says Infineon CEO
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 17 Aug 2021, 10:37 AM

FRANKFURT: The global chip shortage that’s hampering companies from carmakers to computer manufacturers may linger for years, according to Germany’s biggest semiconductor company, Infineon Technologies AG.

The scarcity “may stretch into 2023” in areas where capacity expansion is slow to catch up with consumer demand, Reinhard Ploss, chief executive officer of Infineon, said in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

“Building new facilities and clean rooms in which the silicon wafers are processed into chips can take two to two and a half years; upgrading existing facilities three quarters to one year,” he said.

The chip crunch this year is hurting production at companies from Tesla Inc to Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp.

The amount of time it’s taking for manufacturers to get orders filled stretched to more than 20 weeks in July, worsening from the previous month, research by Susquehanna Financial Group showed.

Increased work-from-home needs and the catch-up effect in the automotive industry following pandemic-fuelled delays have become major drivers for the chip industry, according to Ploss. He also cited faster adoption of electric cars and growing demand for renewable energy among factors contributing to the shortage.

Among European companies affected is Volvo Car AB.

Its plant in Ghent, Belgium plant won’t run for three days next week due to chip shortages with some 5,000 workers being temporarily unemployed, the De Tijd newspaper reported, citing a company spokesperson.

The plant had shut for five days in the first half for similar reasons.

Ploss called for more efforts in Europe to reduce the continent’s dependence on foreign exporters in the semiconductor business.

He’s “open” to cooperating with other companies as long as it fits Infineon’s business strategy, he said.

Bursa Malaysia's OSAT & ATE & EMS players valuation.

OSAT (PER)
Gtronic - 27x
Inari -35x
MPI - 35x
Unisem - 33x

ATE (PER)
Aemulus - 82x
MI - 50x
Penta - 55x
QES - 52x
VIS - 35x
Vitrox - 63x

EMS (PER)
Ataims - 21x
EG - 31x
PIE - 18x
SKpres - 22x
VS - 22x

HDD (PER)
Dufu - 35x

LED (PER)
D&O - 108x
JHM - 48x

Hybrid
Greatec - 66x
Kobay -64x
SAM - 31x
UWC - 70x

Global OSAT & ATE & EMS players valuation.

OSAT (PER)
ASE 15x
Amkor 14x

ATE (PER)
Teradyne 23x
Advantest 23x
Chroma 19x

EMS (PER)
Foxconn - PER 17x
Wistron - PER 8x
Jabil - PER 16x

Posted by treasurehunt > Aug 16, 2021 5:31 PM

Plenty of hot money remains in Bursa technology sector. Market cap exceeds RM 100 billion. Wait..

We are merely few small potatoes and unable to shake Technology sector but Nasdaq correction otw.

What would happen to the value when everyone knows technology is the future? Will it remain valuable in short and mid term?

Bursa technology companies valuation have flied to sky-high. World no 1 in high PER valuation.

Boom and burst is a nature cycle in the stock market and no exceptional in Technology sector .

When Nasdaq is falling, everybody throws away no tomorrow. Joke to say investing technology companies in long term... Moat become mold.

Shortage of microchips to fuel the growth of 5G,Iot and Electric Vehicles. Come back to semiconductor 2 years later

Try some luck here.

Global chip shortage may last until 2023, says Infineon CEO
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 17 Aug 2021, 10:37 AM

FRANKFURT: The global chip shortage that’s hampering companies from carmakers to computer manufacturers may linger for years, according to Germany’s biggest semiconductor company, Infineon Technologies AG.

The scarcity “may stretch into 2023” in areas where capacity expansion is slow to catch up with consumer demand, Reinhard Ploss, chief executive officer of Infineon, said in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

“Building new facilities and clean rooms in which the silicon wafers are processed into chips can take two to two and a half years; upgrading existing facilities three quarters to one year,” he said.

The chip crunch this year is hurting production at companies from Tesla Inc to Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp.

The amount of time it’s taking for manufacturers to get orders filled stretched to more than 20 weeks in July, worsening from the previous month, research by Susquehanna Financial Group showed.

Increased work-from-home needs and the catch-up effect in the automotive industry following pandemic-fuelled delays have become major drivers for the chip industry, according to Ploss. He also cited faster adoption of electric cars and growing demand for renewable energy among factors contributing to the shortage.

Among European companies affected is Volvo Car AB.

Its plant in Ghent, Belgium plant won’t run for three days next week due to chip shortages with some 5,000 workers being temporarily unemployed, the De Tijd newspaper reported, citing a company spokesperson.

The plant had shut for five days in the first half for similar reasons.

Ploss called for more efforts in Europe to reduce the continent’s dependence on foreign exporters in the semiconductor business.

He’s “open” to cooperating with other companies as long as it fits Infineon’s business strategy, he said.

TSMC is the price setter of semiconductor chips and the market offers merely PER 30x. The company will keep growing in next 2 years as they can simply increase prices of the products. TSMC, Samsung and Intel had their plans for the new chips factory. Unfortunately, the new capacity will only be ready after 30 months.

In the absent of new chips capacity, how on earth our Bursa OSAT, ATE and EMS to grow the business in year 2022 and 2023?

Bursa Malaysia's OSAT & ATE & EMS players valuation.

OSAT (PER)
Gtronic - 27x
Inari -35x
MPI - 35x
Unisem - 33x

ATE (PER)
Aemulus - 82x
MI - 50x
Penta - 55x
QES - 52x
VIS - 35x
Vitrox - 63x

EMS (PER)
Ataims - 21x
EG - 31x
PIE - 18x
SKpres - 22x
VS - 22x

HDD (PER)
Dufu - 35x

LED (PER)
D&O - 108x
JHM - 48x

Hybrid
Greatec - 66x
Kobay -64x
SAM - 31x
UWC - 70x

The market has priced in semiconductor companies to report better profits in the next 2 quarters max. No big deal. Everyone knows well and it is similar with the investors know glove ASP decreasing as new supply capacity emerged.

Global HDD players valuation.
HDD (PER)
Seagate 16x
Western Digital 24x

Global OSAT & ATE & EMS players valuation.

OSAT (PER)
ASE 15x
Amkor 14x

ATE (PER)
Teradyne 23x
Advantest 23x
Chroma 19x

EMS (PER)
Foxconn - PER 17x
Wistron - PER 8x
Jabil - PER 16x

Guess how many of mid and downstream players would achieve double digit growth in next 2 years...

OSAT ( MPI, Unisem, Inari & Gtronic )
ATE ( Aemulus, Greatec, MI, Penta, Qes,Vis, Vitrox )
EMS ( Ataims, Eg, PIE, SkPres & VS)
Led ( D&O, Jhm)
HDD ( Dufu, Genetec, Jcy, Notion)

TSMC output will be hitting max 3rd Qtr 2021. No room for adding new capacity over the next 2 years. What would happen to the mid and downstream players in next 2 years?

Revenue 'million

30 Jun 21 - TWD 13,289
31 Mar 21 - TWD 12,919
31 Dec 20 - TWD 12.676
30 Sep 20 - TWD 12,138
30 Jun 20 - TWD 10,385

IBs have been talking so much dropping of glove ASP until 2 years later. No IB mention the consequences of supply crunch semiconductor chips from now to 2 years later. All IBs are shouting technology growth nonstop without taking a breath in the middle.