For circular for shareholders, announced on 13 Dec 2021, I think the most important page was page 174, circular part 1 ( the second last page of circular part 1) :

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3218076


These are the few summary of that page:

Free cash flow to repsol, 2P – consolidated—---------174

Estimation of CY 2021
Total net production : 15,198 boe/day
Estimated realised oil price : USD 63 bbl/day
Estimated realised gas price : USD 3.9 / MMbtu
Net revenue : USD 247 millions
Net Opex : USD 99 millions
Net Capex : USD 20 millions
Net Abex : USD 18 millions
Net Opex/bbl : USD 17.85/bbl
Net (Opex + Capex + Abex)/bbl : USD 24.70/ bbl
Net project free cash flows : USD 77 millions


Estimation of CY 2022
Total net production : 17,364 boe/day
Estimated realised oil price : USD 60 bbl/day
Estimated realised gas price : USD 3.7 / MMbtu
Net revenue : USD 271 millions
Net Opex : USD 113 millions
Net Capex : USD 82 millions
Net Abex : USD 15 millions
Net Opex/bbl : USD 17.83/bbl
Net (Opex + Capex + Abex)/bbl : USD 33.13/ bbl
Net project free cash flows : USD 45 millions


Estimation of CY 2023
Total net production : 16,056 boe/day
Estimated realised oil price : USD 58 bbl/day
Estimated realised gas price : USD 3.6 / MMbtu
Net revenue : USD 246 millions
Net Opex : USD 108 millions
Net Capex : USD 13 millions
Net Abex : USD 11 millions
Net Opex/bbl : USD 18.43/bbl
Net (Opex + Capex + Abex)/bbl : USD 22.52/ bbl
Net project free cash flows : USD 81 millions

Total net project free cash flows from CY2021 till CY2023
= 77+45+81
= USD 203 millions

Conclusion : Repsol assets are considered free, by end of CY2023 with average realised oil price around USD 60 / bbl and average realised gas price around USD 4 / MMbtu

@Hoot9e

Entitlement subject: Final Dividend

Entitlement description :Final single-tier dividend of 1.0 sen per ordinary share in respect of the financial year ended 30 June 2021

Ex-Date :03 Jan 2022

Entitlement date:04 Jan 2022

Payment Date:28 Jan 2022




1) The ex-dividend date or ex-date marks the cutoff point for shareholders to be credited a pending stock dividend.

2) To receive the upcoming dividend, shareholders must have bought the stock before the ex-dividend date.

3) On the ex-dividend date, stock prices typically decline by the amount of the dividend.


https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ex-date.asp

Got few new informations from EGM which I think is important to share:

1) Still no actual approval date from PetroVietnam. Repsol acquisition cannot be completed without approval from PetroVietnam. It is very complicated and quite impossible to manage the oilfields if Hibiscus wants to exclude assets from Vietnam.

2) Tax reduction PITA 38% to 24% in Budget 2022 is not applicable to all Hibiscus assets, including repsol assets.

3) Repsol assets will triple net production of Hibiscus from 9000 boe/d to 26000 boe/d, but it will not triple the EBITDA. Repsol assets will contribute 60% of total EBITDA, North Sabah will contribute 30% of total EBITDA, and Anasuria Cluster will contribute 10% of total EBITDA. That means natural gas is less profitable if compared with crude oil.

I am more confident and trust the management team after the EGM. They really put the priority on shareholders benefits. Will hold Hibiscus long term

The EGM started at 930am, but they started recording at 830am. So you may enjoy the casino music for 1 hour...lol

EGM livestream video

https://vimeo.com/656465051/d4bbfba6ee?embedded=true&source=video_title&owner=129682195

@Windy1974

Agree with you. I also lost pants and underwear by using technical analysis and trading short term.

Nowadays, I always advised my friends and relatives as below if they have interested in investment.

Investment strategy : How to become financial free through stock market investment?

Step 1 : Try to find a way to make a big fund as early as possible, may be at least RM 300,000. This is the hardest part.

Step 2: Use all your fund to buy a single undervalued stock when the chance comes. Keep it for 3 to 7 years until 3X ,then sell all of them. Your fund should be worth at least RM 1 million. Keep all of these money in FD or bonds, and wait for the second chance.

Step 3: When the second chance comes, use all of your fund to buy a single undervalued stock, keep it for 3 to 7 years then sell it at 3X. Your fund should be worth at least RM 3 million.

Step 4 : Finally, you should diversify all these money in high dividend stocks or REITs which will give at least 5% dividend. That means you will have at least passive income of RM 150,000 every year.

This is a very simple way to help you retire early, but not easy to practise. You need to read a lot and do some research. You need to convince yourself regarding the true intrinsic value of stock.

Jeff Bezos, founder, chairman, CEO, and president of Amazon is the richest man in the world. Once in a meeting with Warren Buffett, he asked America’s most prolific investor, your investment thesis is so simple. You’re the second richest guy in the world, and it’s so simple. Why doesn’t everyone just copy you?”

Warren Buffett responded Jeff by saying, “Because nobody wants to get rich slow.”

Merry Xmas and Happy new year !!

Stay safe

The unaudited interim financial statements of RML, RMPM3 and TVL as at and for the six months FPE 30 June 2021
—---circular part 1, page 39

RML —--circular part 1, page 40
Revenue : RM 362,533,000
PBT : RM 132,223,000
PATAMI :RM 73,564,000
Cash and cash equivalents : RM 185,415,000

RMPM3-----circular part 1, page 41
Revenue : RM 108,706,000
PBT: RM 40,795,000
PATAMI : RM 24,880,000
Cash and cash equivalents: RM 12,853,000
Total borrowings including all interest-bearing debt: RM 64,624,000

TVL—-circular part 1, page 42
Revenue : RM 48,003,000
PBT : RM 28,852,000
PATAMI: RM 20,352,000
Cash and cash equivalents : RM 40,434,000

Average sales price —-circular part 1, page 43
Crude oil → USD /bbl :68.65
Gas → USD / kscf : 4.22
Crude oil + Gas → USD / boe : 43.97

In November 2021, the average price of one barrel of Brent crude oil was 81.54 U.S. dollars. This was a decrease of two U.S. dollars compared to the previous month and the result of concerns over rising coronavirus infections largely in Europe.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/262861/uk-brent-crude-oil-monthly-price-development/

From Corporate and Business Update, announced on 10 November 2021

1) Average realised oil price in the Current Quarter increased by 8.7% to USD75.3 per bbl from USD69.3 per bbl in the financial quarter ended 30 June 2021.

2)The average uptime of the North Sabah production facilities of 81%, achieved during the Current Quarter, net production was 5,311 bbl/day.

3) Average uptime and daily production rates of North Sabah for the month of October 2021 have significantly improved, with the average uptime at 91% and the average net oil production at over 6,000 bbl per day.

4) The average uptime and average daily oil equivalent production rate achieved at the Anasuria Cluster for the Current Quarter of 69% and 2,206 boe per day

5) Oil production by Anasuria Cluster was affected by unavailability of a critical component of the subsea infrastructure which malfunctioned in May 2021.

6) Engineering and procurement activities are currently on-going on a fast-track basis with execution targeted for Q3 CY2022. Until the failed component is returned to service, we anticipate that there will be an impact on CY2022 offtake volumes and OPEX per boe. We will provide guidance on the production impact once the project schedule for rectification works has been finalised.

CIRCULAR TO SHAREHOLDERS IN RELATION TO THE PROPOSED ACQUISITION BY PENINSULA HIBISCUS SDN BHD, AN INDIRECT WHOLLY-OWNED SUBSIDIARY OF HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BERHAD, OF THE ENTIRE ISSUED SHARE CAPITAL OF FORTUNA INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION FOR A CASH CONSIDERATION OF USD212.5 MILLION (OR EQUIVALENT TO APPROXIMATELY RM879.5 MILLION)

Date Announced 13 Dec 2021


https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3218076

@kahhoeng, agree with you.

Better prepare for holding Hibiscus at least 6 to 12 months if plan to buy the dips.

I think the keyword for next year crude oil market is "spare capacity". It will be very interesting to see crude price movement at second half of CY2022 after OPEC+ announces they finish their spare capacity and US shale oil producers still refuse to increase oil production.

I also think this Omicron variant might help to form start of a new bull supercycle of crude oil.



Saudi Arabia Warns Of Shrinking Spare Oil Production Capacity
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Warns-Of-Shrinking-Spare-Oil-Production-Capacity.html


Russian Oil-Output Growth Losing Steam as OPEC+ May Review Plans
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-26/russian-oil-output-growth-losing-steam-as-opec-may-review-plans

I think target price more than RM 2.00 is possible by 2025/2026 if...

1) After repsol acquisition, total net production is around 25,000 barrel per day
2) no issue of third tranche of CRPS for repsol acquisition
3) Average Brent price above USD 70/bbl for next 3-4 years
4) PITA tax reduction : 38% -->25% ( This equal to instant extra increment of 21% net profit for repsol assets)
5) Teal West project, targeted to achieve first oil by late 2023, without issue of CRPS
6) Marigold Project, targeted to achieve first oil by 2025, without issue of CRPS
7) Acquisition of another new assets at reasonable price with bonds / free cash flows



Hibiscus Petroleum - Upbeat on upcoming Repsol catalysts

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AmInvestResearch/2021-11-12-story-h1593807667-Hibiscus_Petroleum_Upbeat_on_upcoming_Repsol_catalysts.jsp

@KingKing_Doll

Agree with you.

My target price is more than RM 2.00

Target dividend yield more than 5% by 2023-2024

Will hold till end of 2025 or 2026, after first oil from Marigold project

1) Hibiscus bought Anasuria UK in March 2016 with USD 52.5 million, recorded negative goodwill ( profit) of RM 361 million in 4QFY2016

2) Hibiscus bought North Sabah in March 2018 with USD 25 million, recorded negative goodwill ( profit) of RM 206 million in 4QFY2018

3) Valuation of Repsol assets by RPS Energy in 1 January 2021 was USD 285 million, with oil price scenario of around USD 55/bbl

4) Hibiscus will complete Repsol assets acquisition around Dec 2021 with USD 212.5 million

5) Most likely Hibiscus will ask RPS Energy to revalue Repsol assets on Jan 2022, with oil price scenario of possible USD 70-80/bbl

6) Most likely Hibiscus will record another negative goodwill ( profit) from Repsol acquisition in 3QFY2022 or 4QFY2022

According to Investor Materials October 2021, page 16,

After repsol acquisition, Hibiscus' total assets will increase from RM 2,788millions to RM 4,615millions

https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Investor-Materials.pdf

current market capital of Hibiscus is around RM 1,600millions, plus Hibiscus is debt free.

Hibiscus might still debt free even after repsol acquisition.

@kahhoeng

Do you know the different of FY2022 and CY2021?

According to Corporate and Business Update dated 10 November 2021,page 12, Hibiscus mentioned that:

..... we expect to deliver approximately 2.5-2.7 million bbl of oil for FY2022 from North Sabah and Anasuria. In the event the Proposed Acquisition is completed by the end of CY2021, we expect to add an additional 3 million boe of oil and gas to the above estimate.

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=120355&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS


That means extra increment of 3 million boe of oil and gas from 1st Jan 2022 till 30th June 2022

So, yes, there is the increase of 3X production!!!!

OPEC secretary general expects oversupply in oil market next year
November 16, 2021 18:58 pm

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/opec-secretary-general-expects-oversupply-oil-market-next-year



Trafigura CEO Weir sees 'very, very tight' oil market
November 16, 2021 16:20 pm

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/trafigura-ceo-weir-sees-very-very-tight-oil-market



So, who should we listen to ? I think both of them are correct. OPEC is correct in short term basis, Trifigura CEO is correct in long term basis.

Oil spare capacity to diminish as jet demand returns, Aramco says

"The industry's spare capacity, currently at 3-4 million barrels per day (bpd) is providing some comfort to the market, however, my concern is that the buffer ... might diminish, especially next year when demand is expected to pick up further," Nasser told the Nikkei Global Management Forum.


"Expanding capacity in our industry takes around 5-7 years, and there is not enough investment in the world to increase capacity, this is a huge concern," Nasser said.


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/oil-spare-capacity-diminish-jet-demand-returns-aramco-says

Oil Price Dynamic

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ZZD/2021-11-07-story-h1593718297-Oil_Price_Dynamic.jsp#google_vignette


by Zhang Zuode

Galakan Cukai Bagi Projek Late-Life Assets Untuk Industri Petroleum Huluan ( kedudukan semasa ) :

1) Kadar cukai pendapatan diturunkan daripada 38% kepada 25%

2) Elaun modal dipercepatkan daripada 10 tahun kepada 5 tahun;

3) Pengecualian duti eksport ke atas produk petroleum yang dikeluarkan.



Cadangan:
1) Elaun Modal Dipercepatkan dalam tempoh 2 tahun

2) kerugian daripada aktiviti decommissioning dibenarkan dibawa ke belakang (carryback losses) untuk diserap dengan pendapatan bagi 2 tahun taksiran berturutan sebelumnya (consecutive immediate preceding year). Baki kerugian yang tidak dapat diserap akan diabaikan



Tarikh Kuat Kuasa :
Bagi Kontrak Perkongsian Pengeluaran Late-Life Assets yang
diberikan mulai 1 Januari 2020 hingga 31 Disember 2029.

Very detailed analysis. Thanks a lot !!

Exxon warns some assets may be at risk for impairment due to climate change
---November 4, 2021


Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) on Wednesday said for the first time in a securities filingthat some of its oil and gas properties may face impairment due to climate change.


https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-warns-some-assets-may-risk-impairment-due-climate-change-filing-2021-11-03/

O&G players may form consortiums to bid for Exxon Mobil’s Malaysian assets
--November 17, 2020 16:00 pm +08


SEVERAL local oil and gas (O&G) companies are understood to be interested in acquiring Exxon Mobil Corp’s assets in Malaysia, which are up for sale, but are said to be more comfortable forming consortiums to bid for these assets because of the hefty price tag of US$2 billion to US$3 billion (RM8.26 billion to RM12.39 billion).

According to its website, these assets produce oil and gas under four PSCs with Petronas and are responsible for about a fifth of oil production and about half of the natural gas supply to Peninsular Malaysia.


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/og-players-may-form-consortiums-bid-exxon-mobils-malaysian-assets

@zhangzuode

Thanks for sharing

Hibiscus buy Hibiscus IV - Oil price

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ZZD/


by Zhang Zuode

Nice article !! Very detailed analysis !!

Investor Materials October 2021
for Repsol acquisition

https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Investor-Materials.pdf

Summary of License P 2366:

1) United Oil & Gas PLC (“United”) and Swift Exploration Limited (“Swift”) were awarded License P2366 as part of the United Kingdom’s Oil and Gas Authority’s (“OGA”) in August 2018.

2) License P 2366 include the Crown Discovery which consists of 2C contingent resources that range between 4 to 8 million barrels of oil.

3) Hibiscus planned to acquire this License P 2366 from United and Swift with total cash consideration of up to USD 5 million. Given License P 2366 proximity to Marigold, the contemplated development of Crown is based on a single well subsea tieback to the Marigold field.

4) Sale & Purchase Agreement (SPA) was signed on 7 October 2019, Hibiscus paid total deposit of USD 1 million.

5) Subject to further milestones being achieved post SPA completion, an additional sum of USD 3 million will be paid within 7 business days of the actual date of approval of the Marigold Field Development Plan (“FDP”) which includes the development of the Crown discovery as part of the overall Marigold development (“FDP Approval”), by the relevant United Kingdom regulatory authority, which is expected to be received by the end of 2020.

6) In 2021, the Oil and Gas Authority of the United Kingdom (“OGA”) suspended review of the Field Development Plan (“FDP”) for the development of the Marigold and Sunflower fields

7) Given that a common offtake solution has not been finalized for the area, Hibiscus is currently unwilling to commit to further investment in the Licence.

8) Hibiscus had requested for a 12-month extension of Phase A of the Licence without further material financial commitments but after due consideration, the OGA was unable to accommodate Hibiscus’ request due to the terms of the Licence. Therefore, the Licence automatically terminated on 30 September 2021.

9) According to Annual Report 2019/2020, page 198, it mentioned that “ As at 30 June 2020, the carrying amount of License No. P2366 amounting to RM4,213,100 (equivalent to USD1.0 million). Given that there is no sanctioned development of License No. P2366 as at the reporting date, the carrying amount of RM4,213,100 was impaired in the current financial year.

1) Hibiscus bought Anasuria UK in March 2016 with USD 52.5 million, recorded negative goodwill ( profit) of RM 361 million in 4QFY2016

2) Hibiscus bought North Sabah in March 2018 with USD 25 million, recorded negative goodwill ( profit) of RM 206 million in 4QFY2018

3) Repsol assets was valued as USD 415 million under a base oil price scenario of $65/bbl in 2020.
https://connect.ihsmarkit.com/upstream-insight/article/heroldReports/136390/seam-alert-repsol-weighing-sale-of-malaysian-assets

4) Valuation of Repsol assets by RPS Energy in 1 January 2021 was USD 285 million, with base oil price scenario of around USD 55/bbl

5) Hibiscus will complete Repsol assets acquisition around Dec 2021 with USD 212.5 million

6) Most likely Hibiscus will ask RPS Energy to revalue Repsol assets on Jan 2022, with base oil price scenario of possible USD 70-80/bbl

7) Most likely Hibiscus will record another negative goodwill ( profit) from Repsol acquisition in 2QFY2022 or 3QFY2022

@error413

1) Hibiscus bidded Repsol assets around Jan 2021, with Brent crude price around USD 50-55/bbl

2) Most of the oil and gas M&A are based on backwardation of future Brent price, which means Brent crude will be getting cheaper in the future. Page 11 showed RPS Energy Consultants Limited predicted Brent crude price will be USD 57 in 2022, USD 55 in 2023 and USD 53 in 2024.

3)Total net cash flows expected to be generated over the next 5 years (2021 – 2025) by Repsol asses is USD255m, also based on this backwardation of future Brent price.

4)EBITDA contribution of USD135m (RM558.8m) is expected in calendar year 2022, might be based on USD 57/bbl

Inter-state travel won't lead to spike in new cases, KJ says


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/savemalaysia/2021-09-23-story-h1571680708-Inter_state_travel_won_t_lead_to_spike_in_new_cases_KJ_says.jsp

@zhangzuode

Totally agree with you.

With current Brent oil and natural gas price, plus some adjustment of capital expenditures (capex), I wont surprise that Hibiscus no need to issue the CRPS and no need borrowings from bank.

AmInvest and PublicInvest estimated Hibiscus will borrow RM 250-340 million from bank.

1) It is not easy for small company like Hibiscus to make deal with Big Oil Companies, Shell and Exxon Mobil for Anasuria UK acquisition in 2016 just for USD 52.5 million only.

2) It is not easy for small company like Hibiscus to make deal with Shell and Petronas for North Sabah acquisition in 2018 just for USD 25 million only.

3) It is not easy for small company like Hibiscus to beat bigger company, Medco Energi and make deal with Repsol, Petronas and PetroVietnam for Repsol asset acquisition in 2021 just for USD 212.5 million only.

All of these wont happen if Shell, Exxon Mobil, Repsol, Petronas, Petrovietnam, Hibiscus customers ( BP Oil and Trifigura) didnt trust Hibiscus management team.

Hibiscus will close deal with Repsol at the end of 2021. That means Hibiscus have to issue the third tranche of CRPS within 2 months if they want to. Dr Kenneth and CFO already publicly mentioned that they wont issue CRPS for Repsol acquisition. So let’s see we can trust this management team or not

I think by current share price, Hibiscus offers us the precious chance ( low risk, high reward) for financial free. In order to understand the true intrinsic value of Hibiscus, I think it is worth for you to spend at least 1 month from now ( before Hibiscus completes Repsol acquisition):

1) to read a lot regarding Oil and Gas industry
2) to understand Exploration and Production ( E&P ) sector
3) to read all annual reports and quarter reports of Hibiscus. Try to find extra information / presentation via Google or Youtube
4) Try to understand business model of Hibiscus
5) Can you trust the management team? What can be done better if you were CEO?
6) Who are Hibiscus' competitors? Local and international
7) What is the risks in investing Hibiscus

If you plan to invest big in particular undervalued stock for long term, I think it is worth your time to do detailed research on Hibiscus.

Investment strategy : How to become financial free through stock market investment?

Step 1 : Try to find a way to make a big fund as early as possible, may be at least RM 300,000. This is the hardest part.

Step 2: Use all your fund to buy a single undervalued stock when the chance comes. Keep it for 3 to 7 years until 3X ,then sell all of them. Your fund should be worth at least RM 1 million. Keep all of these money in FD or bonds, and wait for the second chance.

Step 3: When the second chance comes, use all of your fund to buy a single undervalued stock, keep it for 3 to 7 years then sell it at 3X. Your fund should be worth at least RM 3 million.

Step 4 : Finally, you should diversify all these money in high dividend stocks or REITs which will give at least 5% dividend. That means you will have at least passive income of RM 150,000 every year.

This is a very simple way to help you retire early, but not easy to practise. You need to read a lot and do some research. You need to convince yourself regarding the true intrinsic value of stock.

Jeff Bezos, founder, chairman, CEO, and president of Amazon is the richest man in the world. Once in a meeting with Warren Buffett, he asked America’s most prolific investor, your investment thesis is so simple. You’re the second richest guy in the world, and it’s so simple. Why doesn’t everyone just copy you?”

Warren Buffett responded Jeff by saying, “Because nobody wants to get rich slow.”

NEW ISSUE OF SECURITIES (CHAPTER 6 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS) : FUND RAISING HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BERHAD ("HIBISCUS PETROLEUM" OR "THE COMPANY") ALLOTMENT AND ISSUANCE OF UP TO 2,000,000,000 NEW ISLAMIC CONVERTIBLE REDEEMABLE PREFERENCE SHARES BY WAY OF PRIVATE PLACEMENT EXERCISE TO RAISE UP TO RM2.00 BILLION ("PRIVATE PLACEMENT OF CRPS")


https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3189997




The CRPS programme is a multi-tranche programme which permits the Company to issue CRPS in tranches as and when it is required. Since the launch of the CRPS programme in September 2020, Hibiscus Petroleum has only issued RM203.6 million CRPS. The Company exercised caution when sizing the issuance, which was based on the amount the Company estimated was required to pay a SPA deposit based on its bids pipeline.


This announcement is dated 3 September 2021.

Dr Kenneth did mention that Hibiscus might need to issue third tranche of CRPS if they want to acquire another new asset after Repsol

Post-Bloom, Hibiscus' Position In Fossil-Clean Era

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bfm_podcast/2021-09-06-story-h1570751425-Post_Bloom_Hibiscus_Position_In_Fossil_Clean_Era.jsp


You can fast forward to 10:30 minutes for Repsol acquisition

Conclusion : Hibiscus just needs to pay less than USD 100 million for Repsol assets

The sum-of-the-parts valuation (SOTP) of Hibiscus

Refer to https://www.amequities.com.my/documents/20126/0/Hibiscus+Petroleum+210827.pdf/efff9a3f-bec4-876e-1f98-91599f5a9fc2?t=1630028292073

1) Anasuria UK
Hibiscus bought at USD 52.5 million
Current value of Anasuria UK = USD 187.7 million

2) North Sabah
Hibiscus bought at USD 25 million
Current value of North Sabah = USD 217.4 million

3) UK Marigold and Sunflower fields
Hibiscus bought at USD 37.5 million and owns 87.5%
Estimate : 43.6milllion 2C oil Resources

4) Repsol assets
Hibiscus will buy at USD 212.5 million
Estimate value by RPS Energy : USD 285 million

For Hibiscus FY2021 ( 01/07/2020 till 30/06/2021)

1) North Sabah
Average net oil production rate : 6,442 bbls per day
Average realised oil price: USD51.75 per bbl.
Opex : USD14.21 per bbl
Revenue : RM569.9 million
EBITDA : RM313.2 million
Margin of EBITDA : 55%

2) Anasuria UK
Average net oil and gas production rate : 2,665 bbls per day
Average realised oil price :USD50.04 per bbl.
Opex : USD22.19
Revenue : RM229.0 million
EBITDA : RM90.5 million
Margin of EBITDA : 39.5%

Total net operating cash flow : RM 297 million
Total capital expenditures ( capex ) : RM 137.5 million
Free cash flow : RM 297 million - RM 137.5 million = RM 159.5 million


3) Repsol assets
--Hibiscus bidded Repsol assets at early of 2021, during Brent oil USD 48-55 per bbl
--Average net oil and gas production rate : 17,400 bbls per day
--Opex of oil : around USD 15 per bbl
--Opex of oil and gas : less than USD 15 per boe
--Estimated EBITDA : RM 558.8 million
--capital expenditures ( capex ) : USD 80 - 110 million (Aminvest and Public Bank prediction)

Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the average Brent oil price for 2021 is around USD 68.

Total revenue from Repsol ( 01/01/2021 till 31/12/2021)
= 17400 x 365 x 68 x 4.1 ( RM conversion rate) = RM 1,770.7 million
If the margin of EBITDA same with North Sabah, which is 55%,
Estimated EBITDA from Repsol : RM 1,770.7 million x 55% = RM 973.9 million

Total EBITDA for Hibiscus for CY2021 ( 01/01/2021 till 31/12/21)
= North Sabah + Anasuria UK + Repsol
= RM313.2 million + RM90.5 million + RM 973.9 million
= RM 1,377.6 million ( at least )

Let’s assume that there is no any private placement or third tranche of CRPS for Repsol acquisition.

1) After full conversion of 2nd tranche CRPS, total number shares of Hibiscus will be around 2,012 millions shares.

2)For FY 2019, the average net oil production rate was 8356 barrels per day, with North Sabah average realised oil price of USD73 per bbl, and Anasuria UK with average realised oil price of
USD 67 per bbl. This helped Hibiscus to generate revenue RM 988 millions, net operating cash flow RM 496 millions and net profit RM 230 millions. The margin of net profit was 23.28% ( 230 ÷ 988 x 100%)

3) For Repsol assets, Dr Kenneth did mention that the average operating costs (“OPEX”) per barrel is around USD15, which is almost same with opex of North Sabah and Anasuria. So it is safe to say that the margin of net profit of Repsol assets also around 23.28%

4) After Repsol acquisition, the total average net oil production rate will increase to 26800 barrels per day. For conservative calculation, if the average realised oil price around USD 60 per bbl for FY2022, Hibiscus will be able to generate revenue 26800 x 365days x USD 60 x RM 4.1 ( conversion rate) = RM 2,406 millions. If the margin of net profit is 23.28%, that means Hibiscus will make net profit of RM 560 millions

5) With total number shares of 2,012 millions and net profit of RM 560 millions, EPS of Hibiscus will be around 0.2783. With current stock price of RM 0.64, the PER will be 2.30. The average PER of KLCI and oil & gas industry is around 16 currently.

As we know, Hibiscus is a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), established on 2011 without any core assets. It is very difficult for this kind of company to borrow money from bank due to high fluctuation of Brent oil price and high bankruptcy rate of small oil and gas companies.

In order to acquire valuable assets, Hibiscus has no choice and has to get money from shareholders by issuing plenty of private placements and CRPS for past 10 years. This will cause massive dilution number of shares inevitably.

So, I think this is a very big turning point for Hibiscus if they able to buy Repsol assets without issuing any private placement or third tranche of CRPS

@zhangzuode

Please watch this informative youtube

$HIBISCS - Making Smart Moves in Turbulent Times

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbNLG6HtjOY

fast forward to 2:24:10 , CFO and Dr Kenneth mentioned they wont launch third tranche of CRPS for Repsol acquisition

From what I understand, Hibiscus will not issue CRPS, private placement or right isssue for Repsol acquisition. There will no further dilution of current shares.

But Hibiscus might issue CRPS again if they plan to purchase another asset from other oil company.

Great news !!

no CRPS for Repsol acquisition !!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbNLG6HtjOY

fast forward to 2:24:10

@emsvsi very nice article. Well done

If we read through these 27 pages of Proposed Acquisition of Repsol Assets,
https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/HPB-Proposed-Acquisition-of-Repsol-Assets-Final.pdf

We noted that Hibiscus gave us a lot of assumptions and estimated numbers, but Hibiscus didn't tell us the most important number, which is their Proposed Acquisition is based on how much of Brent oil price, USD 40/bbl ?? USD 50/bbl ?? or USD 60/bbl ??

So how to calculate this Brent oil price?

From the document of Proposed Acquisition of Repsol Assets, we know that :
1) Total Purchase Consideration is USD 212.5 million,based on Effective Date of 1 January 2021
2) Daily net production rate from Repsol Assets (including gas) = 17,400 boe/day
3) Based on Hibiscus’ estimate, EBITDA contribution of USD135m (RM558.8m) is expected in calendar year 2022 from Repsol Assets
4) Based on conversion rate of USD = MYR4.139

From document Investor Presentation May 2021, page 39
https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/2021-Hibiscus-Investor-Presentation-May-R1.pdf

We know that:
1) EBITDA margin of North Sabah : 40% - 60%
2) EBITDA margin of Anasuria Cluster : 40% - 70%

So, based on EBITDA margin 40%-60%, we have 3 possible prices:

1) If EBITDA margin is 40% of revenue ,
Revenue from Repsol= RM 558.8m ÷ 0.4 = RM 1397m
Estimated Brent oil price = RM 1397m ÷365÷4.139÷17400 = US 53.14/bbl

2) If EBITDA margin is 50% of revenue ,
Revenue from Repsol= RM 558.8m ÷ 0.5 = RM 1176.6m
Estimated Brent oil price = RM 1176.6m÷365÷4.139÷17400 = US 42.52/bbl

3) If EBITDA margin is 60% of revenue ,
Revenue from Repsol= RM 558.8m ÷ 0.6 = RM 931.3m
Estimated Brent oil price = RM 931.3m ÷365÷4.139÷17400 = US 35.43/bbl

The closing price of Brent oil on 31 Dec 2020 was USD 51.70/bbl

Conclusion : It is safe to say that the Proposed Acquisition in based on Brent oil price around USD 50/bbl

Repsol said to be looking to exit Malaysia
March 02, 2021 14:00 pm +08


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/repsol-said-be-looking-exit-malaysia