orang cakap 2nd Q, dia cakap 3rd Q....

orang tengok first hand info dari Bursa, dia tengok 2nd hand info dari malaysia stock biz....

macam ini manyak susah wor....kena belajar bahasa alien sudah.....

malas nak layan

The last 3 2nd quarter result for financial rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2011, 2012 & 2013 were announced on final week August each year.

23 Aug 2013 : http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1385593
28 Aug 2012: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1048349
23 Aug 2011: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/864330

ada betul ker you punya calendar? Just to verify, I'm using Earth Calender hor, maybe ur calendar slightly different form the Earth calender ? kikikikiki

log off & switch off the monitor, go enjoy the Raya break

@invest65, if you talk too much here, it a matter of time the reader s here will start to attack you . It is for your own good. Spend more quality doing something else

if you don't do any posting, it attract less ppl...

apa cerita?

jiak bah bo tai ji jor? don't push wei.... focus do office work, let it sleep

it is happening...

Myth busted , all Tan"s related counter is not a good investment = invalid statement

Take over target perhaps ..
Who is the candidate looking for inorganic growth??

BEIJING, Jan. 28 (Xinhua) -- Chinese investors avoided a high-profile trust default on Monday, easing worries that the economy may be about to tip the first domino of shadow banking defaults.

China Credit Trust reached a last-minute deal with investors to repay their investment in the three-billion-yuan (about 500 million U.S. dollars)product, deflating concerns that default would pound investor confidence in shadow banking and trigger credit crunches.

"This offer comes as a compromise given rising concerns over a full default, but it is likely that investors have become more cautious on trust products in general," said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura.

The trust product, launched in February 2011, attracted some 700 private bank clients of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to invest in a private coal miner in north China's Shanxi Province. Shanxi Zhengfu Energy Group went bankrupt last year and was unable to repay the loans it secured through the trust product.

Investors retrieved their principal after agreeing to a return of 2.8 percent on the product in the third year, according to documents seen by Xinhua correspondents. The annual returns in the first two years were 9.5 percent and 10 percent respectively.

The incident alarmed the market amid China's ongoing financial liberalization that millions of people pull their money out of savings accounts and buy alternative financial products that yield interest more than double that on bank deposits.

While investors have dodged default this time, there may be more bad news from the shadow banking sector.

"Similar incidents will occur more often in 2014," said Ding Shuang, senior China economist at Citibank. "The regulators have become more tolerant of partial defaults as they intend to rein in the shadow banking and raise investors' awareness of risks."

Shadow banking has expanded rapidly in recent years. For instance, trust assets surged to about 10 trillion yuan by the third quarter last year, up 60 percent on the previous year.

Chinese banks are only allowed to offer official rates to depositors, and those rates are flat with inflation, which has left Chinese savers ready to turn to other investments.

Banks are banned from lending money to industries with overcapacity or local government financing vehicles. When borrowers from these categories knock on a bank's door for money, they will be offered a high interest loan from other funding channels. The money is often raised through banks' networks.

As a chunk of non-banking products are due later this year, the market fears that a wave of defaults may weaken investor confidence in the shadow banking system and clogging money pipelines.

As people become less willing to buy shadow banking products, it will likely lead to less liquidity and a credit crunch, said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS.

Wang said liquidity would most likely flow back to the banking system, but banks could not automatically expand their balance sheet to offset the shrinkage in shadow banking, as they are constrained by loan quotas, lending restrictions and high reserve requirements.

Some analysts, however, believe borrowing costs in the shadow banking sector may not necessarily rise on default.

"Investors will become more cautious, so they will retrieve their money invested in high-risk areas and purchase more products with lower risks," Ding said. "High-risk projects may see a spike in borrowing costs while low-risk ones can enjoy less costs."

While the high-profile trust incident nerved the market and could lead to tighter regulation on non-banking financing, few expected the authorities to reverse the efforts to liberalize China's financial system.

"Policymakers' ultimate intention is not to halt the trust business, but to ensure clear separation of responsibility between borrowers, fund-raising channels and investors, and to prevent risk contagion," wrote Helen Qiao, chief Greater China economist at Morgan Stanley.

If partial defaults can help restore the risk pricing mechanism, financial liberalization will improve efficiency in capital allocation by introducing more competition, and should be encouraged instead of reversed, Qiao said.

To stay up to date with the latest China news, follow XHNews on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/XHNews and Xinhua News Agency on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/XinhuaNewsAgency.

if i were the boss, really don't mind paying good bonuses for the 49 ronin

their performance really gonna be envied by a lot of bosses out there......only with 49 ronin bringing back such a revenue & profit annually.....

Malaysia need more company like this.....

any Elsoft's staff here? if your boss say economy no good, have to cut down bonuses, they are lying to you !!!!!

don't add any more staffs....keep it at this level.....bring more revenue & profit back next year....in 49 Ronin of Elsoft I trust !

log in price - 0.62.......keep in freezer, wait till cow come home now

siapa suruh u tangan gatal? masuk tangan dalam mulut biawak....mesti kena gigit la

6 months passed. RM 1.95 , total gain from 17th Jan 2013 ref RM 1.50 = 0.45sen + 0.05 sen dividend, approximately 33.3%. okla, can pass even though not flying color

how come "kong ye sou" is not categorized as violation of i3 Community Standards ?

you should thank talk2pkc, he is helping you to eliminate all the irritations effectively

RM 3 is the magic word :), someone get very excited the moment RM 3 is mentioned. kikikikikiki

sau kong lo, 2 weeks before CNY. early break this year

market not realistic during panic

RM3 coming ! tong tong tong chang, tong tong tong chang.

wahahahahaha, happy CNY Digi

tong chang tong chang tong chang, kekekekekeke

I already cleared all my CWs - the most risky instruments subjected to downside

buta-buta lost few k this morning

normally the sell down like this will last how long?

wrong timing today, GE13 rumors too intense

worth to put into watch list

Listing Date 28/11/2012
Term Sheet Date 27/11/2012
Issue Date 27/11/2012
Issue/ Ask Price MYR 0.1500
Issue Size Indicator Unit
Issue Size in Unit 50,000,000
Maturity Date 29/11/2013
Exercise/Strike/Conversion Price MYR 2.2000
Revised Exercise/Strike/Conversion Price
Exercise/ Conversion Ratio 2 : 1
Revised Exercise/ Conversion Ratio
Settlement Type/ Convertible into Cash

Current premium: 3% only...

if Monday come still above 501, can wallap ? when need to cabut ?

value_man: no doubt the long-term debt figure is increasing , in my opinion, Wing Tai still can afford the debt

reading from Dynaquest latest report

current D/E Ratio : 0.28 , the the lower ratio, the better. If we look at other well known developers, their D/E are as following:-
1)Mah Sing = 0.91
2)SPSetia = 0.39
3)UEM Land = 0.32
4)KLCCP = 0.37
5)IJM Land = 0.16
6)IGB = 0.32

rule of thumb, D/E < 0.5 is still manageable.

So think it is not a big issue right now for Wing Tai, of course the trend need to be monitored.

On other parameters :-

Current ROE : 9.38% ( normally I'll for above > 15%, occasionally do mind to put figure close to 10% in my watch list)

Current P/E : 8 (approximate)

Current NTA : RM 2.78

It think it is a yes for further analysis at this point to me, the business model is kind of similar to Scientex in term of net profit contribution from its components

Scientex(2012)
Manufacturing = RM 35.7M (33.3%)
Property = RM 71.9M (67.1%)

Wing Tai (2012)
Manufacturing & Trading = RM 40.9M (33.7%)
Property = RM 92.4M ( 76% )

so mhafizan, value_man & others, what your fair value estimation for Wing Tai ?? :)

* to my surprise - Mah Sing investors ! D/E = 0.91 !, have a good sleep & dream at night, kikikikiki. Talam D/E > 1.0 for years ! any mischief to the Mah Sing cash flow - another possible Talam in the making. Still can afford to expand land bank? kikikikiki

let mark today date :), there are few of us here who manage to convinced ourselves that this counter is deeply undervalue

so we mark the followings:-

1) today opening price : RM1.50
2) today date : 17th Jan 2013

we come back 6 months down the road & see what happen to the price :) , either we are being laugh or we laugh at ourselves, kikikiki

this counter is no doubt VT counter, in fact, all three major shareholders are Tan, lol

gotta log off again, need to focus on real work :)

i copied & pasted your comment on wing tai thread, maybe we should discuss any further regarding wing tai malaysia there

logging off value_man, busy day ahead.

Posted by value_man > Jan 16, 2013 11:51 AM | Report Abuse

Regarding Wing Tai, here is my worthless 2 cents (please take it with a pitch of salt):

2009 2010 2011 2012
FCF 29.1 55.6 -47.7 -22.7
Dividend Paid 7.2 6 12.1 10.5
Long-Term Debt 48.7 78.7 153.2 182.7
ST Borrowings 34.2 18.0 16.9 17.9

Looking at the FCF, it is no surprise that Wing Tai's debt is increasing every year.

Please don't take my comment too seriously. Do your own investigation and make your own decision.

will look into the info you have highlighted , how you all do the analysis so fast ?

lol, i takes me quite some time to read the reports....

thanks value_man

value_man: Wing Tai Malaysia recommended by one of the notorious noise maker here is worth to have a look also.

value_man: if you see anything not right, feels free to comment. i'm observing & learning from people comments.

conservative safe margin figure....in case if the earlier calculation got error, with 33% safety margin, it will eliminate the risk

just like some sort of safety factor in engineering design

another very lame answer - they all use 33%, so i assume is a norm

if got time, will try out DCF formula...

total EPS

2013 EPS = 28.46 x 1.1057 = 31.47
2014 EPS = 31.47 x 1.1057 = 34.79
2015 EPS = 34.79 x 1.1057 = 38.47
2016 EPS = 38.47 x 1.1057 = 42.54
2017 EPS = 42.54 x 1.1057 = 47.04
2018 EPS = 47.04 x 1.1057 = 52.01
2019 EPS = 52.01 x 1.1057 = 57.50
2020 EPS = 57.50 x 1.1057 = 63.58
2021 EPS = 63.58 x 1.1057 = 70.30
2022 EPS = 70.30 x 1.1057 = 77.73

total EPS accumulative at year 2022 = 515.43sen

using R=ar^(n-1)
R = total return (expected price on n-year + total dividend)
a = intrinsic value
r = expected return rate
n = year n, n =10

value R = (EPS in year 2022 x average P/E) + total EPS x average dividend payout

P/E range :-
Year Low High
2002 7.6 13.2
2003 10.3 19.1
2004 18.1 29.5
2005 45.3 73.8
2006 37.9 50.0
2007 8.9 19.7
2008 6.7 11.2
2009 6.4 9.2
2010 5.2 8.2
2011 6.1 8.7
2012 4.7 7.0

average P/E = 17.8
average dividend payout from EPS = 67%

R = (77.73 sen x 17.8 ) + (515.43 sen x 67%)
= 13.84 + 3.45
= RM 17.29

taking n = 11, & r = 15%

a = 17.29 / 1.15^10
= RM 4.27

fair value (33% discount over intrinsic value) = RM 2.86

assuming earlier one is correct la ( life is just too short, got to be positive)

calculating compounded DPS growth rate, average to average over the time period of 2003 to 2012

2003 average DPS = (4.7+5.0+3.6)/3 = 4.4
2012 average DPS = (11.0+11.0+6.0)/3 = 9.3

DPS growth rate = 7.8%

trying to extract some EPS out from Dynaquest & recent quarters earning report

Year EPS(sen) DPS(sen)
2002 13.2 4.7
2003 9.7 5.0
2004 6.2 3.6
2005 1.7 3.6
2006 1.9 2.0
2007 6.2 3.7
2008 9.8 4.5
2009 11.1 5.0
2010 15.9 7.5
2011 16.7 6.0
2012 28.46* 11.0*
2013 34.47# 11.0#

* unaudited figure based on recent quarterly reports
# estimated figure

calculating the compounded EPS growth rate, average to average over the time period of 2003 to 2012

2003 average EPS = (13.2+9.7+6.2)/3 = 9.7
2012 average EPS = (16.7+28.46+34.47)/3 = 26.5

using A=P(1+R)^N, where,

A=current EPS
N=number of years
P=EPS N years prior (principal)
R=annual growth rates (interest rate)

link here:http://www.independent-stock-investing.com/PE-Ratio.html

with A=26.5
P=9.7
N=10
solving for R = 10.57%( EPS growth rates correct ? )

really admire the way value_man do posting

"You should invest in a company based on your own study and not based on my convincing" - 2 thumbs up

I have some discussion with kcchongnz at Pintaras thread before, he highlighted the way to estimate compounded EPS growth rate.

Maybe I'll try up with EPS & DPS growth rate estimation later. if i do it wrong, all the comments are welcome but cannot laugh meh :)

dinner first, brb :)

such a "lawyer" who can appear at i3 most of the time must be very outstanding wor :), ish ish

i foresee your future "lawyer", as i got some ability to do fortune telling "lawyer" as i'm unknown, kikikikikiki

if you appear here most of the time, you be so called "lawyer" here most of the time for the rest of your life.....kikikikikiki

that is your destiny, super "lawyer". the ABU ambiguity gonna make you a hit & make you ultra rich, kikikikikiki

so continue with your effort "lawyer" :)

i need a break :), lmao

wahhh!!!! you are so clever la you jumbo :), i never see such a clever "lawyer" before. i admire you so much. you must be getting a lot of legal cases by postings here. i envy u so much la, ish ish

bright future ahead jumbo, bright future ahead. continue with your posts "lawyer", kikikikiki

give me a break, this so called "lawyer" really comes back after midnight

now i know why this kind of "lawyer" is here. good future ahead "lawyer" - i see bright future ahead for you with Abu ambiguity, just couldn't help myself lol, kikikikikiki

need to log off.

mission accomplished today

fatty tang: good intel

Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan counter is worth to have a look. They are serious in business

might be an alternative to Lafarge & Tasek when Hume Ind.(M) cement plant in operation

climbed so high already

those with high foreign holding % - AAsia....etc

if i could recall correctly, Equine under property sector suffered severely after Selangor falls into PKR

need to avoid property similar to Equine...

Posted by KC Loh > Jan 13, 2013 12:05 AM | Report Abuse

yawn... posted 2 days already, also not noticed! tsk..

it narrow down the searched - they are not to the level yet,it seem you know the culprits as well

it will takes another few years, perhaps