1432 posts to go

cannot talk to yet - haven't reach 1500 posts

2 culprits just revealed themselves...

nice one berid, 2 tumbs up for you

i'm not sure if this message will reach the intended person, whatever it is, they are targeting the "strongest" for attention. take it as a form of acknowledgement

half full glass always, never half empty glass.

i see purebull dream

Pharmaniaga / Boustead Holding related counter - might be, their concession is extended by another 10 years from 30-11-09 by MOH. MOH = Government , if BN retain Federal. even if BN didn't retain Federal, i'm in my opinion, their concession will be renewed. Boustead is back by army fund LTAT, just too stable

regardless the differences in opinions, just throw in all your inputs 1st, the rest might help to do some filtration later

Datuk mentioned water related counter - Puncak. to add to the list - Gamuda, if BN regain Selangor

TNB - possible revise in electrical tariff if BN retain Federal

Mr.PureBull: we got 3 ticks in NTPM

1)kcchongnz
2)Mr.Ooi
3)tonylim . (i assume is mashuk)

is the body in motion already ? sailang mode Monday ?

arigato in advance

CIMB IB - warrant team, if you are reading this, when will there be any new listing of CW tracking the underlying ? make sure you issue something better than AMMB IB

AMMB IB market making volume just sucks...

trade wise friend, don't overstay

try to trigger a fight again ? never ending

anyone looking for grasshopper just now ??

all they way here

free as you will - it is a public forum, do agree on that

worry no, i'm certainly won't say you "BS". i'm still sane . don't treat everyone you encounter alike the one who look after the high volume counters & believe investing as a faith.

thank you again for all your precious inputs

hope this company from Sekinchan town farewell

geometrical equation to be precise, kikikiki

conservative engineer will put double or triple layer safety
factors to their design to make sure their design don't fail. unless there is totally no risk / minimal risk , then only the additional safety factors to be removed :)

subjective again kcchongnz - you know the risk of this particular business more than anyone else since you were in the industry before, hence you can afford smaller discounted rate. As for me, I know them from surface only, unless I know how they manage their contracts in & out, I am in my opinion to maintain rate.

But of course for other cash cow counters that have the existence in the market for more than 15~20 years. I'll definitely reduce the unnecessary safety factors.

thanks a lot for your comments, appreciate that

@kcchongnz: not sure if you will show any interest on this one

looking at your previous liking:-

Kfima
Ptaras
Freight

I guess you might want to screen this one

@kcloh: any other flaws missed out? is the method in spreadsheet a valid valuation method ? appreciate your kind comment

@kcchongnz - actually it took me less than 5 min, just got no time & sorry for late reply

The spreadsheet does not belong to me, need to stress it here again - it is uploaded by Andrew. I read his book 2 years back, it was that time when I first came upon the link.

Firstly - will have to agree with you that the method is not DCF. I saw the empirical formula for DCF last week from another CFA handbook, totally not the same. But question is, can the formula in the spreadsheet be used? I came across the same formula being taught in 2 different locally published books

1) couldn't recall the title - by Andrew Chia himself
2) How to Make Money from your Stock Investment - by Ho Kok Mun

Could anyone verify if the method can be used ?

Secondly, thank you for the link on the EPS growth rate. I couldn't agree more with your opinion that the estimation of EPS growth rate in the spreadsheet is flawed. When I 1st tried to estimate the EPS growth rate using the spreadsheet, the end figures I arrived at are always way off the figures published in the Dynaquest reports. I starts questioning the reliability of the spreadsheet as I trust the paid published reports more than the figures generated by the spreadsheet. After a few attempts, I gave up the EPS growth rate estimation using spreadsheet. Ever since then, I applied the figures reported by Dynaquest directly.

Thirdly, agreed that the correct term to be used for 15% should be required return not growth rate as stated in spreadsheet. Why 15% ?

1) default value taught by the 2 books - very lame answer
2) 15% - 5% allocation for inflation rate, 3~4% allocation for the interest rate offered by bank, another 6~7% allocation for risk that I'm willing to take by putting my money into equity than FD.

the 15% required return varies according to individual, no fix figure

happy new year i3 folks

@kcchongnz
@kcloh (hopes 40+ posts doesn't stop you from commenting or replying)
@i3 folks

referring to the spread sheet uploaded by Andrew to calculate the intrinsic value for Ptaras, the following values were replaced in the earlier discussion last year :-

taking 3A calculation spread sheet:-

delete all the value in cells (E12:O24)

replace the following cell values:-

1) Cell C24 : 2012
2) Cell E24 : RM 2.11
3) Cell F24 : RM 3.10
4) Cell I24 : 20 sen
5) Cell K24 : RM 0.507
6) Cell N26 : 6.9%
7) Cell O26 : 4.3%
8) Cell P26 : 6.40
9) Cell Q26 : 10.10
10) Cell I28 : 24.5%
11) Cell M28 : 18.7%
12) Cell O28 : (N26+O26)/2
13) Cell Q28 : (P26+Q26)/2
14) Cell K31 : 2012
15) Cell K33 : RM 3.18

if you could notice, i didn't calculate the EPS growth rate & DPS growth rate using the spread sheet uploaded by Andrew.

instead, i make use of the figures published by Dynaquest issue Sep 2012. All the figures from item 1) to 15) are actually extracted from Dynaquest 10-Y data for Ptaras - unless if i extracted it wrongly, kindly correct me.

that is how i arrived at the intrinsic value RM 5.94 at cell E96

any flaws you notice, feel free to comments. Tx in advance

wulei now very hot - selective wulei counters only

wulei oh wulei

not of my capacity to update the link, i'm not the rightful owner of the spreadsheet & the webpage

it was uploaded by this guy name Andrew Chia, not sure if the originality of the file belong to the other owner name Goh as stated by your brother - kcloh

i could only highlight which cells i replaced the values when i have access to file later.

see if there will be a discussion on the flaws mentioned can be corrected to benefit the other readers.

stop doing unnecessary spamming, can't help just watch

don't want to watch , leave us in peace

wish you good day ahead jumbo

non constructive posts...

kikikiki, so be it :)

kikikiki, belalang is indeed grasshopper

it was a mistake & i admit it. the corrected one shall be "belang"

does it matter a lot ? looks like you are obsesses with the " mr.sardine " as much as he is obsesses with you mr.kcloh 8D

in the end,if you somehow manage find out that i'm neither one of them, would do the same as you have advised gumbo to do ? :)

the moment your starts the guessing with a biased perception, that is the moment you will overlooked some alternative possibilities.

good day ahead mr.kcloh

kia ora kcchongnz

i'm worked out my own version of intrinsic value calculation

by extracting following data from Dynaquest Sep 2012 :-

a) 10-Y growth rate of EPS ( column 3a) = 18.7%
b) 10-Y DPS growth rate (cloumn 4a) = 24.5%
c) 10-Y DY range : 6.9~4.3 = 5.6% (average of high & low )
d) 10-Y PER range : 6.4~10.1 = 8.25 (average of high & low )

assuming the desire return, r = 15% per annum

the intrinsic value, a = RM 5.94 ( disregarding the net cash of RM 1.53/share )

slightly deviated from yours :), lazy people like me always like to copy paste & modified ppl template. i'm using the approach from the following template link - Warning ! make sure your device is protected with antivirus - http://andrewchia.com/intrinsic

the template is prepared by someone else & it is showing 3 examples of intrinsic value calculation, i just re-use the template

kikikikiki ,despite the differences, we are getting to same conclusion for Ptaras

a matter of time before i get use to your method :)

hi djhchew 8D, that is a good attempt for laughter , lol.

looks like it is safe for the time being...got a favor to return to kcchongnz tonight

see you guys later

already succeed with my original intend today, i'll say

looks like the involvement of dumbo,jumbo,mumbo,obvilion, etc does make some impact to create confusion / suspicion

moving forward, you'll be suspicious of any new comers with new nicks

bye bye "wealthy" man kcloh .... need to get myself a new id for the upcoming new year...

kikikikiki

still confuse & guessing if i'm not mistaken....doesn't sound or smell like sardine at all ?


kikikikiki

you have been very quite recently, what make you hesitate to share more ? :)

else the forum very dull , need to decorate it a bit. it is a boxing day today

kikikikik, hi kcloh . still hunting the sardine ?

aiya, playing with some physics, need to be so serious meh

tongkat ali - ada umphh!

if we see the movement as a profile of wave particle from the view of physicist, when the wave particle velocity approaching zero, that should be the point of the maximum displacement.

any further point onward, there should be change of the vector direction for both velocity & displacement

so "siu lei fei dou" , ready to change direction ? 11.18 & 11.20, see if it hold for the change of the direction

just can't understand ppl taking the flight to Amsterdam so early, now is winter at northern hemisphere le, freezing cold.

i'll wait till spring or summer come

PWROOT PureBULL . > Dec 26, 2012 11:20 AM |

PWROOT 114, ABOVE 107 is good chance of uptrending again...

The 3 AhPek major owners must have cut a deal with the ever selling fund in Koperasi Permodalan FELDA Malaysia Berhad. Recent report shows the stop of that fund dumping their stocks. Has hope.

View more co. info here,
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/7237.jsp



RIGHT TIMING to making Money

Right stock = 50% virtual money
Right Timing = 100% solid pure money

Only enter a trade after the action of the market confirms your opinion and then enter promptly. " AI YONG YONG, ME SIONG SIONG " in hokkien.
Continue with trades that show you a profit, end trades that show a loss.
The price # next to the stock name below is the best price for entry at real-time quote. This shouting goes through the brain many times before every fearless call. The next price # is the floor price. If prices retrace down below this #, Sun Tze said, " mata lai, choww = Ran for life ". This is proactive way of planning the selling before every single buying !
Risk mgmt: I suggest go into mkt 'naked'. Just wear trunk or g-string only to be lightest n wear spike shoes always. This way u r sure to " ran " fastest on 1st sign of purebear.

didn't notice he posted in his blog, need to cut & paste here

fair & neutral statement. salute to you kcchongnz

itu gangster dari liang san baca chart lo, jangan main-main lo

lu pernah fikir untuk join force sama dia untuk bikin satu "dream team" sama dia ? lu join force sama dia, kita semua warga forum ini pun senang lo. kita kasi tendang buntut itu semua "anal-shit"

tengok tengok, lu manyak aktif macam u punya abang-adik yang lagi satu - KC

dulu itu KC yang lagi satu juga banyak bagi tunjuk kira-kira intrinsic & fair value, tapi kebelakang ini nampak macam segan ja

:), lu punya kawan baik sulah main it CW sampai US punya market lo, lu tak mau join kasi sama dia kah ?:)

itu dia sedang main Apple punya CW lo, apa macam lu ciakap sama itu Apple-C5

oh, ini lou wulei punya counter lo

olang manyak takut sama lou wulei, entahlah apa dia olang fikir

tapi jangan pandang remeh olang baca chart lo.... dia olang baca kebarangkalian keputusan yang akan diambik pelabur/penikam :)

kua buat malam ni nanti bila lapang, kikikikiki

aik, pak belalang lagi. semua IB manyak suka sama rimau tahun depan wor

pak belalang lagi

pak belalang ada dalam senarai

lu punya kira-kira intrinsic value bagi itu budak tomdickharry minggu lepas ada link bagi empirical formula ?

bolih kasi link kat sini, wa mau semak-semak sama ada wah punya persamaan ada serupa sama you punya

kikiki kcchongnz , takda raya x-mas ka ? nampak sibuk ngan kaunter-kaunter bawah 40sen 2 hari lepas. you bukan kristian loh wa teka-teka :)