TAAN released quarterly result yesterday... super good.. mainly driven by timber sector & higher FFB..

Main factors contributing to the better performance were as follow:

(i) Higher fresh fruit bunch (‘FFB’) production by 8% from the increasing mature palms;
(ii) Better export logs and plywood average selling prices which in Ringgit terms were 41% and
26% higher though their respective sales volumes were 31% and 9% lower; and

Output for FFB is quite steady, maintain above 90k Mt for the past 3 months.
Oct'15 output

1)    Log - 70,735 cubic metres

2)    Fresh Fruit Bunches - 95,599 metric tonnes

3)   Crude Palm Oil - 12,911 metric tonnes

4)   Palm Kemel - 1,974 metric tonnes

Take a look at jtiasa timber & palm oil output and compare it with taan and wtk, at the same time compare the stock price performance, you will understand it is safe to accumulate at current low price. Appreciation for this stock could be much higher in future.

2 target price adjustment by RHB-Osk in Oct'15. 5th Oct raise target price fr 1.18 to 1.25. On 26 oct, it raised the target price further to 1.40. Weaker RM benefit sector timber and EL nino push CPO price higher benefit plantation sectors...

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/10/19/Morgan-Stanley-retains-Upgrade-outlook-for-plantations/?style=biz

SSP MRT line approved.
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/10/22/Govt-gives-OK-for-MRT-line-to-link-to-Serdang-and-Putrajaya/?style=biz

Will the contra players unload their shares which bought on 3 days ago on today or they already unloaded it.

International arbitration decision or awards for contract disputed/breached do not involve court and normally is finally. It is different from court decision or judgement we use to be at Malaysia.

no matter how good is a company, you wont see the share price going up everyday.. but what you see is the price appreciated at upwards trend...IMO

Sarawak state election coming soon, Will Sarawak related company will benefit from it ?

Not bad.. WCT also benefit from depreciation of RM....~ RM 159 mil extra compare to July'15.

1.153 billion Emirati dirhams exchange to RM (1 to1.17) equal to RM 1.1349 bill with RM 159 mil more value which translate to ~ RM 0.15 per cent per share extra due to depreciation of RM ?

I just noticed that the "WCT Holdings Bhd, through unit WCT (Dubai Branch), has been awarded 1.153 billion Emirati dirhams (RM1.19bil) in the arbitration case involving the Nad Al-Sheba Racecourse project in Dubai. during that time ( 8 July) 1 Emirati dirhams to RM is 1.03 and now is 1 Emirati dirhams to RM is 1.17. Does it mean WCT get more in RM due to depreciation of ringgit ?

Seem like most of the research house increased the target price after the RM 754 mil TRX project win. Based on current trend, seem like WCT will get more GLC related projects. Purchased that piece of land could build up a goodwill of company with government. This could benefit them to get more projects in future. IMO.

An El Nino weather pattern is likely to cut palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia by 5-6 percent in 2016 and lift prices to 2,500 ringgit ($606.06) per tonne in the first quarter, the chief executive of plantation firm Felda Global Ventures said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/09/us-felda-glo-vntrs-palmoil-output-idUSKCN0S311B20151009

Sep output...Jayatiasa

1) Log - 62,164 cubic metres

2)   Fresh Fruit Bunches - 96,925 metric tonnes

3)   Crude Palm Oil - 12,063 metric tonnes

4)   Palm Kemel - 1,924 metric tonnes

FFB production (MT) Forecast as per 4th Quarter 2015 Jayatiasa Corporate presentation slides

FY 2015 740,013 (Actual 30-Jun-2015)
FY 2016 935,000
FY 2017 1,060,000
FY 2018 1,155,000

Significant contribution from oil palm sector in the next few years.

Last Friday USDA report showed lower US output for soybeans and could provide support for soybean oil and palm oil price for this week.

http://www.theborneopost.com/2015/10/03/weaker-ringgit-stronger-el-nino-positive-for-cpo-prices/

Plantation stock return back to radar of investor...Palm oil price for 2016 upgrade fr RM 2100 per Mt to RM 2300 Mt. Get ready for more upgrade from research house for plantation stock.

www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2015/09/30/mpoc-el-nino-to-slash-2016-palm-oil-output/

Understand the EL Nino effect on the palm oil price, it is time to focus on palm oil stock.

After review the Jaya tiasa MONTHLY PRODUCTION FIGURES (PLANTATION / TIMBER) and compared it to TAAN. There is room to grow for Jayatiasa share price. It will benefit the Palm oil price increased recently due to EL Nino effect couple with devaluation of RM which benefit timber sector. IMO

Jayatiasa - MONTHLY PRODUCTION FIGURES (PLANTATION / TIMBER)

Q2
Apr'15
Logs - 73,763 cubic metres.
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 58,256 metric tonnes.
Crude Palm Oil - 7,336 metric tonnes.
Palm Kernel - 1,011 metric tonnes.

May'15
Logs - 64,896 cubic metres.
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 67,648 metric tonnes.
Crude Palm Oil - 7,830 metric tonnes.
Palm Kernel - 1,097 metric tonnes.

June'15
Logs - 51,689 cubic metres.
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 67,159 metric tonnes.
Crude Palm Oil - 6,411 metric tonnes.
Palm Kernel - 1,012 metric tonnes.

Q3
July'15
Logs - 55,077 cubic metres.
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 81,659 metric tonnes.
Crude Palm Oil - 8,576 metric tonnes.
Palm Kernel - 1,434 metric tonnes.

Aug'15
Log - 77,218 cubic metres
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 95,968 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil - 11,341 metric tonnes
Palm Kemel - 1,806 metric tonnes

TAAN - MONTHLY PRODUCTION FIGURES (PLANTATION / TIMBER)
Q2
Apr'15
Log - 33,692 cubic metres
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 47,770 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil - 12,840 metric tonnes
Palm Kernel - 2,366 metric tonnes

May'15
Log - 43,236 cubic metres
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 50,147 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil - 14,592 metric tonnes
Palm Kernel - 2,689 metric tonnes

June'15
Log - 39,726 cubic metres
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 53,584 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil - 14,250 metric tonnes
Palm Kernel - 2,823 metric tonnes

Q3
July'15
Log - 48,112 cubic metres
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 59,606 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil - 15,869 metric tonnes
Palm Kernel - 3,089 metric tonnes

Aug'15
Log - 41,291 cubic metres
Fresh Fruit Bunches - 66,715 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil - 18,433 metric tonnes
Palm Kernel - 3,744 metric tonnes

RM continue depreciate to 1 USD to RM 4 45

MONTHLY PRODUCTION FIGURES (MINING / PLANTATION / TIMBER)
Q2’15

Apr ’15 . Log : 43,192 m3 2. FFB : 3,102.49 mt
May ’15 Log : 40,919 m3 2. FFB : 3,432.55 mt
June ’15 Log : 27,544 m3 2. FFB : 3,420.56 mt

Q3’15

July’15 . Log : 52,726 m3 2. FFB : 3,729.17 mt
Aug’15 . Log : 63,241 m3 2. FFB : 4,378.97 mt

Strong Q3 Log output will push the WTK stronger quarter results..IMO.
Q3 - 2 moths Log output equal Q2 3 months output.

RM continue weaken against USD. Investor those worry of devalue of RM affecting their asset and not intent to convert it to USD, buying stock which earn USD is another way to reduce the risk of devalue of RM.

The major concern for Sapura at this moment is Petrobras contracts which are quite significant to Sapura. If second round cost cutting for Petrobras affect the sapura contract, it could affect the furure earning. S & P has downgraded Petrobras rating to Junk, it could affect its USD 130 billions debt. Let see...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/s-p-downgrades-brazils-petrobras-to-junk-status-1441918321

http://www.wsj.com/articles/petrobras-chairman-taking-leave-of-absence-until-nov-30-1442241188

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/14/uk-brazil-petrobras-idUKKCN0RE25D20150914

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/amresearch/81518.jsp

Upstream reported that the group is currently competing for Thailand’s PTTEP multi-year turnkey contract to build 12 wellhead platforms on a confirmed basis with options for another 13 platforms. In addition, each platform brings with it associated subsea pipelines, tie-in work, brownfield modifications, and the supply of other subsea equipment. The contract is expected to be awarded in August or September 2015.

Should have projects awarded fr Thailand in month of Sep...wait at see..

Current shareholder of SKPETRO as per latest annual report - Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputra (380 mil share, 6.34%,) Kumpulan wang Persaraan (123 mil shares, 2.06%) Amanah saham wawasan 2020 (99 mil shares, 1.66%) , will this stock in the Valuecap buy list ?

IEA Sees US Oil Output Collapsing Next Year on Low Prices -
Meanwhile, global oil demand growth is expected to climb to a five-year high of 1.7 million bpd or 1.8 percent in 2015, before moderating to a still-above-trend 1.4 million in 2016.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/140568/IEA_Sees_US_Oil_Output_Collapsing_Next_Year_on_Low_Prices/?all=HG2

low oil price is driven by saudi or opec to against production of US shale oil, time to accumulate O & G stock when it is cheap before return back to normal....

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/15e4dc9a-585e-11e5-9846-de406ccb37f2.html#axzz3lcxYuuzn

Oil rigs count US tumble to 2010 level before shale oil start to boom.. Expect reduce in oil supply from US to rebalance the market..The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported that August production fell by 140,000 barrels a day compared with July production. Saudi is main influence on the oil price and supply to reduce the shale oil players. it is a game, Opec want. to win battle against US shale oil. Once is over, oil is back to normal.

http://www.businessinsider.my/baker-hughes-rig-count-september-11-2015-9/#vvgKQY4VPODmtoFD.97

I just checked...air asia external audit is not deloitte who audit 1mdb and Nizar Najib (ahjib son) is an executive director, financial advisory services (FAS) with the firm. Therefore no link between 1 mdb auditing firm with airasia...lucky that..

No worry..only RM 7 mil not usd 700 mil donation..small matter. Even usd 700 mil donation is small deal what is this RM 7 mil.

Airasia report got standard auditing reporting...not any how report... For 1mdb report, i cant confirm that, you need to ask deloitte.

Morning session, those bought at lower price took profit . This group of pp scare share price will drop again...second wave, once profiting taking session over, up trend continue with long position group enter market. Quantity of share transacted by Wellington is just a little compare to total volume. Impact wont be that much...GMT report created an opportunity to short share and profit from short selling...if no advantage or benefit to generate profit from this report, why they need to analysis..

As per current price... Let see how Airasia react tomorrow for USD to RM down and Crude Oil price rebound above USD 40 with this price valid and continue till tomorrow.

USD/MYR 4.1865 -0.0249 -0.59%
Crude Oil 40.31 +1.71 +4.43%

Anti Bersih will not participate, and left peaceful Bersih gathering... if you feel worry then dump all your shares and reduce your risk. those risk taker, they will accumulate the share... it depends on risk you want to take. no right or wrong.. if your decision favor you, then you may profit from it. if decision not favor you, you may lose money. no right or wrong and depends on your decision and you understand the risk...

My best guess, tonight crude oil price rebound above USD 40 and USD to RM droppred below RM 4.2, follow by another good day for Airasia tomorrow... IMO, trade at your own risk...

Oil price rebound and RM started to strengthen is good for Airasia. While people talking about Bersih...i guess what a smart fund manager will do, they will dump share until the one weeks just before Bersih and accumulate at the week Bersih because it is good time to accumulate while retail investor dumping share on the that week.... You can see why this week share up so much while people keep scare of Bersih... Retail investor and fund manager think differently...if not how they outperform the market and retail investor...

yesterday whole day volume equal to today half day volume.... strong rebound with volume support... great to see that,..

Tony focus on running the company not goreng share...I just call my remiser on the his opinion for this share. he advice me to hold share till rebound above RM1.

Ii believe quite a lot of people waiting for this reserve signal to buy Airasia.... Today should be the highest volume, 1 hour trade with 70 mil share transaction and easily can absorb the contra traders profit taking....

now is just 0.825, plenty room to grow to analyse target price...NTA is 1.71. current price is half of NTA. Risk of going down further is low chance of going up is huge..First round of profit taking people already out, second wave up trend for today is going on and continue..

Reverse trend just started long way to go...Short covering and people start to accumulate this share since bottom or support has been establish. Current price is dam cheap and extremely oversold..

Strong volume with up trend,... Continue to accumulate due to Airasia is extremely oversold.

Panic created a situation where share price sell at low price. if you know the company is strong and good, the low price created an opportunity to buy at low price and enjoy good return in future. crisis is opportunity if you know how to take advantage of it instead of panic. Be a steady investor. EPF already started to accumulate Airasia.

Once RM stable, those stock affected by RM depreciation will find the support and reverse the trend. Base on current trend, seem like RM has found the resistant and get ready to reverse the trend soon. RM is under value and most likely it will rebound once the uncertain factors have been removed.

http://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-myr

Sorry to say that airasia is affected by depreciation of RM which is mainly due to politic uncertainty of malaysia.. In absent of politic uncertainty, RM wont drop so much and impacted Airasia profit and share price.

60% of USD debt is hedge.. this reduce impact of depreciation of RM against USD.

The loaned stock for AirAsia rose to a high of 47mn shares on June 23 from 7mn in the previous two weeks of June 23, according to data from financial software company SunGard Astec Analytics. They will do short covering once it is oversold and ready to take profit.. Get ready soon.

Based on last quarter Airasia result, seem like balance sheet improved with debt reduced by 1 bil and cash position increased from 950 mil to 1.83 bil. Current price dropped could be due to short sell of airasia share with absent of selling by major shareholders and EPF started to accumulate 1 mil share on 21 of Aug. Get ready for short seller to buy back airasia in near term. Time to accumulate airasia share at super low price with extremely oversold position.